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Offlinescatmanrav
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #16951286 - 10/02/12 11:16 AM (11 years, 3 months ago)

Yesterday I found allot of those to. I got stopped out of my mnst short yesterday, and I coursed out my amzn call for a nice little profit. Xme is looking bad, still holding it though, I bought a few calls Oct $32 strike, pretty deep itm on MO, I meant to be in at a further date.

Tjx, just bought some 45 dollar puts too. I think I probably trade to much,I gotta work on curbing that


--------------------
"life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake."

Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep)
Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use..
How I do grain (old still good tips)
Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber
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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: scatmanrav]
    #16951694 - 10/02/12 12:52 PM (11 years, 3 months ago)

If you think you're trading too much, you are.  If you don't think you're trading too much, you still might be. :wink:
It's something I wrestle with all of the time. :crazy2:

Just wanted to pop in to note that I just got my fill on the $625/610 Oct bull put spreads for AAPL, right when the stock tagged $651.  The stock is slamming head on into its 50 day moving average, which has generally been a good buy point.  Particularly in light of the heavy selling for the past week and half, the fact that the company has billions in cash and investments, a new product that has more demand than supply (i.e. selling out), very low valuation based on growth metrics, the holiday season coming up and the possible catalyst of a new iPad mini and/or a deal with China Mobile... AND the fact that on a daily chart, there is an uptrending support line that starts on the 1/25/12 earnings gap, and was subsequently tagged on 5/18/12 and again during the week of 7/25/12.  That support line is currently right at $625, which means it will over that level by the time October expiration comes around... so I think the $625/$610 spread for a $3 credit is pretty darn safe.  Then again, I had some decent rationale for the $660/650 spread that I ended up unwinding for a loss, but seriously, $625 is a pretty solid area of support.





If I get my ass handed to me on this trade, I'll be taking a long vacation! :tongue:


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Offlineben_dover0802
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #16954079 - 10/02/12 06:54 PM (11 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
If you think you're trading too much, you are.  If you don't think you're trading too much, you still might be. :wink:






Exactly, at this point I am trying to make sure I am not overtrading - it happened to me before and usually ends up detrimental.  Right now I am holding all positions that have not been stopped out, I opened one short on RIG, and just letting everything take its course.  S hurt me in these past couple days, I sold half yesterday, but holding on to half for a hopeful bounce.  I'll be keeping an eye on it if I decide i eventually want to buy the pullback. 

I think the most important thing to do right here is not get fancy and overtrade - those fees add up fast.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #16954657 - 10/02/12 08:20 PM (11 years, 3 months ago)

Yeah, I was watching that dump on RIG today too, lower high and lower low vs yesterday.  However, I
decided not to go short, because the OIH and XOP are close to support, and RIG itself is trapped in a
semi-semetrical triangle pattern, that I'm thinking will result in a little more sideways consolidation
before we see resolution.  Based on news out of Brazil that lets them start rig'n again where they
were previously banned, in conjunction with continued pending currency weakness, I think RIG might
actually be setting up for a more lasting breakout above its 200 day moving average... but only if the
aggregate market cooperates and doesn't get spooked by the global weakening and EU crisis stories. 
Really, could go either way, hence the alerts I have set:






AAPL, really nice bounce end of day.  The spread on my $625/610 bull put credits are collapsing nicely,
kind of wish I'd been more aggressive, but isn't that always the case when you make a good call?  I'm
also battling with the wounds from the $660/650 spread I had to close down, so I'm mindful of falling
prey to the "gotta make it back" emotions... don't want to get carried away.  Still, I think AAPL,
bouncing above yesterday's close on higher volume is important.  I would buy this stock, and probably
will pick up a little bit tomorrow, possibly another Jan $655 call, if I can find a nice entry.  This is not
the type of market where you want to buy gap higher openings.  I am also aware that today's end of
day action in the stock could have been some short covering.  Technically though, a picture perfect
bounce off the stock's 50 day moving average, it's a positive development.  But not one to ignore the
bear case, here's what ShadowTrader just sent me, direct to my iPhone ;-]


     


Man, if we get that "orange oval" type of move down below $600, I'll be loading the boat! :excellent:


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Edited by geokills (10/02/12 08:35 PM)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #16964076 - 10/04/12 08:33 AM (11 years, 3 months ago)

I see ben_dover bagged a nice 2% move on RIG yesterday with his short, although it pretty much tagged the lower end of that symmetrical triangle that I graphed.  I wouldn't expect RIG to eclipse yesterday's low soon, and would probably book profits on the short and wait for a break below $45 to re-initiate, since the stock could very well bounce up to $47 pretty quickly.  As I said, I get the feeling that in time, RIG will break out above $47... though it would likely be another week or two before that would happen.  Then again, if I'm wrong, just keep a "sell short" stop below $45, so if the triangle does break to the downside, you automatically build the position when that event occurs.  Short and buy stops are very useful for these symmetrical triangle type of trades.

In other news, banks are steamrolling.  They have the winds at their backs thanks to the Fed's monetary policy.  Accordingly, I picked up some Jan 2013 WFC $35 calls yesterday, and some weekly Oct 12th JPM $41.50 calls this morning.  I still hold a core position in BAC 2014 $7 calls that I've been sitting on for months.  Added a few more contracts to that position yesterday.

Bought a chunk of NFLX common stock yesterday, as it is breaking out of a prolonged base with a volatility squeeze.  Doubled down for the ride this morning, but sold out of that extra half as the stock is now tracking along its third standard deviation bollinger band.  Maintaining a core position however, and do plan to reload on any weakness that shows signs of turning into a new support pivot.

Also added an AAPL weekly $675 call with a tight trailing stop since I added out of the money and there's only today and tomorrow before the contract expires.  It is presently profitable, and in the worst case I will break even on my exit.

Also added some Nov $44 calls to manage alongside my March $47 calls on XME.  The ETF yesterday tagged an uptrending line from 7/25 and 9/4, which also happens to coincide with its 50 day moving average, and the narrowing bollinger bands.  Pretty strong support there, so why not add a little more exposure on some intermediate term contracts.

Smoke 'em while you got 'em.  I don't usually like to buy gap higher opens, but this one held for the first 30 minutes of the day, so it seemed appropriate to start wading into the water.  I did get stiffed trying to trade Sprint (S) this morning, and was also stopped out of my common stock short on TJX (though I still hold April 2013 $40 puts).

Trade safe, keep your winners on a leash but give 'em a little slack (and your losers on a muzzled leash as you wait for them to be euthanized! :wink: ).


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Offlinescatmanrav
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #16964898 - 10/04/12 12:03 PM (11 years, 3 months ago)

Yeah I'm having a tough time deciding on what to do with my stuff. I grabed one little 65$ oct call on ESRX two days after you mentioned it, it was up to much that day and pulled back the next then started moving up. Actually rode it for a nice little percentage gain, wish I had a bigger position lol. I sold it off just because I'm trying to pare back and it was about 100% gain. I think I was in at ~.7 and sold it for 1.30

I also was stopped out of a TJX put, unfortunatly it looked like it was plowing through the moving averages and now it looks like its reversing off of them and still may very well go down from here. No biggy, I'm leaving it and staying out.

I had bought 9$ calls of BAC based on the trade at OMM for .35, this was a good sized position and I didnt set the same stop at a 25% loss because I was watching the underlying price which still looked good, so I held it. I sold 1/2 today at .52 just to lock in some profits, I feel its going up more but I keep watching my portfolio go up and down so much I'm sick of seeing profits I make disappear.

I'm back into MNST short again! Third times the charm I hope? Tight stop set, still setting lower highs, lots of resistance above and starting to squeeze, just waiting for that pop lower I've been waiting for.

Also holding MO 33.00 OCT 12 Calls, which are kind of risky, they're at support/resistance and it really could go either way, almost looks down but they are still in the money.

XME 44.00 OCT 12 Calls, I got in at almost this level last week, it went up and I didnt take profits then it turned over and went down to the 50DMA again and I watched it drain to worthlessness but looking at the underlying it looked good so I kept it. It did come back now to just a few cents profit. I think I'm holding it though cause it does look good.

Last is the first option I purchased, WFC 36.00 OCT 12 Calls I bought 2 weeks ago, then watched them go up and then drain too from .45 where I bought them down to .20. I held it through the dip based on the underlying price acting normal still, and now they have bounced back up into a good profit, but I still feel like theres more up on them. I just hope I dont regret it again.

I love the fact that options swing high quickly, but its really difficult watching them swing so high and not selling it off. And its REALLY difficult watching them swing WAY lower when the price is doing what you expect it to do. I've been keeping all of my positions pretty small though, only risking a few hundred per trade.

The transports are finally moving up after making a bottom, along with the other indexes, still trading in that channel so it looks like things are looking up, but I cant get myself to buy more of any of my positions being up so much today it feels like they'll pull back tomorrow. And I hate buying on Fridays and Mondays so I may just sit until Tuesday.


--------------------
"life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake."

Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep)
Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use..
How I do grain (old still good tips)
Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber
Casing layer colonization and overlay


Edited by scatmanrav (10/04/12 12:14 PM)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: scatmanrav]
    #16965003 - 10/04/12 12:22 PM (11 years, 3 months ago)

> XME 44.00 OCT 12 Calls

Those are going to expire way soon.  Presently XME is in a consolidation range with ~$42.25 on the downside and ~$44.25 on the upside.  I do agree that the bias is to the upside, but that position should still be considered a lottery play.  I'm using dates that are farther out (Nov 2012 and March 2013) to capitalize on the longer term basing pattern of XME as a sector, and the anticipated breakout that should occur relatively slowly over the next several months.  This also allows me not to stress over the position, since time decay is not yet a consideration.

I see you also bought an out of the money weekly call on WFC, which should definitely be construed as a lottery ticket.  I'm not saying this is necessarily a bad strategy, but owning out of the money options so close to expiration is a very aggressive strategy that needs an impressive move in a short period of time to pay off, as time decay will eat up the value of that option very quickly.  Probability-wise, these are low probability trades.  Risk wise, well, since they're out of the money and expiring soon, you probably didn't need to commit a lot of capital so at least the risk is low, as long as you managed your position size appropriately and haven't been holding these for a long time.

> I love the fact that options swing high quickly

When you're on the right side of the trade. :wink:  Remember that the leverage cuts both ways.  Generally speaking, if I own contracts that expire during the current month and they are not already deep in the money and profitable, I will "roll them out" to a farther date (or plan to hold them for only a few days), as not to be victim of the vicious time value decay during the last couple of weeks leading up to expiration.  Of course, I would only roll out positions that I want to give more time to work.  If on the other hand there is technical evidence building that suggests the trade will not work in my favor as initially anticipated, I'll just close it down entirely and set alerts to monitor the stock for other opportunities.


As an example for how I'm handing my weekly Oct 12 $41.50 JPM calls.  They are currently in the money and profitable, but because of the near term expiration, I don't want to let them fall out of the money, so I have a stop set, should JPM fall below $41.41.  This works out well, because $41.50 was the level of Monday's intraday highs, which should now act as short term support since today was the first day since Monday that the stock was above to break above that level.  Prior resistance, becomes present support; and vice versa.  I like this particular trade because of the clarity provided by the confluence of the option's strike price and some short term support that makes for easy identification of an appropriate stop loss level.


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Offlinescatmanrav
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: scatmanrav]
    #16965460 - 10/04/12 01:39 PM (11 years, 3 months ago)

OK, thanks for the input. I got out of WFC since its up pretty good over the last two days, bought at .45 sold at .65. I have been holding it for 2 weeks, most of the time it was a losing trade, so I'll take the money.

XME looks to be able to go up a bit more and at this point its worth just what I bought it for, I'd buy it today for that so it doesnt seem worth it to sell it. It is a small position as you said to limit my risk in that way.

I also took another look at MO and its triangular looking pattern its stuck in. When I went to buy it two days ago I meant to look at Jan 13 options or so but wasnt thinking and got OCT options. But I bought at .80 2 days ago and just sold at 1.08 because as you said time decay may get me and Id rather not risk it.

So I feel better now, I'm holding half my BAC 9$ calls which should stay over 9 dollars, support is right there. Also the small XME, which is flat from where I bought it and looks to have up bias. And then MNST short, no expiration or time to worry about there, just as long as it stays under 56 it looks good.

But me and my itchy buying finger had to buy something else, I got AA calls but this time in the money and with time to spare. Jan 2013  7.50 calls seemed cheap at 1.69. Breakeven is 9.19, just about where we are at right now. Oct $8 calls wouldve been 1.09 so 9.09 breakeven and 3 months less on the option. Seems like the best choice, though I usually lean towards out of the money options because they are so cheap they can move so much. This is a little safer though I think, better balance of risk/reward.


--------------------
"life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake."

Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep)
Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use..
How I do grain (old still good tips)
Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber
Casing layer colonization and overlay


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: scatmanrav]
    #16965885 - 10/04/12 02:42 PM (11 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

scatmanrav said:
I usually lean towards out of the money options because they are so cheap they can move so much.




Naturally, we are drawn by what we perceive as a deal.  And truly, there's nothing inherently wrong with out of the money options.  But they are stacked against you in the sense that they have no intrinsic value, only the value of time on the contract.  For this reason, they have a lower probability of making a return than an in-the-money option.  However, if your timing is right, the low probability payoff can be tremendous.

Whether or not I buy in the money, at the money, or out of the money depends entirely on how long I intend to hold a trade and what kind of movement I expect to occur.  For a stock that is in a squeeze and just begins to break out, I almost always buy just a little bit out of the money, because a volatility expansion from a tight squeeze will almost certainly put those solidly in the money rather quickly, and since they cost less on an absolute basis, I can buy more in order to control more stock at a higher strike price.  For these volatility breakouts, if I think the breakout will lead to more longer term upside, I may buy longer dated contracts and sell half the position after the initial breakout while letting the second half ride.  If I am only playing the breakout exclusively, I will instead by front month contracts and dump after the first phase of the breakout shows signs of completion.

On the other hand, if the position I'm considering is for a stock that already has high volatility (and therefore the time component of the option contracts are particularly expensive), I will be more inclined to buy deeper in the money, in order to avoid paying exorbitant amounts for time value.  Lastly, if it's a stock that I just plain like and intend to hold for a long time, I tend to by calls AT the money with a longer dated contract, and will repeatedly sell out of the money calls on shorter dated contracts against my long call, in what is known as a calendar spread.

Of course, these aren't hard fast rules, but it's generally how I trade options.


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Offlinescatmanrav
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: scatmanrav]
    #16966392 - 10/04/12 03:56 PM (11 years, 3 months ago)

I like the calender spread idea, pretty low risk to collect profit and make your cost basis lower. Even if the option value stays flat you still win.

So with my AA calls @ 7.50 I could sell 11$ Oct calls, 12$ Nov calls, and 13$ Dec calls. If it gets called away I use my long call position effectively bought at 9.19 a share and collect the profit from the trade plus premium on the contract sold.

But can you do all Oct, Nov, and Dec at the same time? If the Oct gets hit and that calls away the shares, you have to close out the Nov and Dec ones and if the price has moved up youd have to buy to close for a lot more then what you sold to open at right?

This sort of seems similar to a similar question I asked on the OMM forum, but I think got overlooked. Iceman posted about an option ladder, as I see it even if he sold 1 contract at each of these, and then assuming the stock tanks and heads down to 50 by march and he gets put to each of these he'd have to buy 100 shares at the respective strike prices. Why spread it out like this instead of just selling say 5 Nov 17 contracts instead of 5 different. They'll all move in the same direction right? It seems like this would tie up a lot of capital for a while, since he needs the money in account to be able to buy all those shares over that long period of time.

Heres the posts:
Iceman      $KSU
$KSU #ShortPuts - I'm stalking this name and I have entered orders to set up the following option ladder:
KSU Mar 16 2013 50.0 Puts @ 1.15
KSU Dec 22 2012 60.0 Puts @ 0.80
KSU Nov 17 2012 65.0 Puts @ 0.85
KSU Oct 20 2012 65.0 Puts @ 0.30
KSU Oct 20 2012 70.0 Puts @ 0.95

@Iceman
Whats the benifit of doing an option ladder rather then just shorting one of them, say the Dec ones? They'll all move in the same direction, just in different amounts no?


--------------------
"life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake."

Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep)
Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use..
How I do grain (old still good tips)
Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber
Casing layer colonization and overlay


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: scatmanrav]
    #16970687 - 10/05/12 09:18 AM (11 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

scatmanrav said:

So with my AA calls @ 7.50 I could sell 11$ Oct calls, 12$ Nov calls, and 13$ Dec calls ...
But can you do all Oct, Nov, and Dec at the same time?




You can only sell as many calls as you own for the same issue.  So if you own three AA $7.50 calls, you can sell one each of the Oct $11, Nov $12, and Dec $13.  Or any combination so long as you are not selling more calls than you hold for the same issue.  Since your losses could theoretically be infinite on a call option that you sell "naked" (without an equal portion of long call or common stock to secure it), most brokers won't even allow you to do it.


Quote:

@Iceman
Whats the benifit of doing an option ladder rather then just shorting one of them, say the Dec ones? They'll all move in the same direction, just in different amounts no?




I haven't really used ladders myself, though I suppose it's an OK way to set yourself up to own a stock incrementally, while lowering your cost basis since you will collect higher premium for the longer dated and lower strikes.  This is a strategy you would want to use on a stock whose long term prospects you are confident in, and/or whose stock shows a well defined channel on a weekly or monthly chart that extends back for years, so that you can identify high probability strike prices for your contracts that won't end up putting you underwater.  It is true that you would need to be well capitalized to implement this strategy, since you'll have to maintain funds in your account corresponding to the total sum of strike prices for all of the puts you have sold.



PS.  AAPL :shakefist:


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #16989479 - 10/08/12 08:59 AM (11 years, 3 months ago)

Sold my NFLX common.  Wish I had bought options on that one, christ, common up 30% in four trading sessions.  AAPL decisively broke its 50 day moving average, although it is bouncing after tagging the area of the stock's early April highs.  I am maintaining some core exposure but not getting aggressive.  Took some GRPN at $5.10 this morning, which is helping offset my AAPL losses.  GRPN reports on Thursday, so I will be reducing exposure before then.  Also added to my Nov $44 calls on XME.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #17005138 - 10/10/12 12:52 PM (11 years, 3 months ago)

Quick note that AGNC has taken a proper beating over the past month and is at a level where long term investors may want to pick some up.  There is speculation that because of the Fed's mortgage purchasing program, the net interest spreads for mortgage REITS like AGNC will be declining, which could lead to a dividend cut.  Maybe that will happen, but with a $5 dividend on a $33 stock, even a dividend cut is not likely to crush the stock (if it did, you can bet I would use that as another buying opportunity).  Today, the stock yields over 15% annually, and tagged its 200 day EMA which is a rare event.


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Offlinesofa_king_happy
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #17008296 - 10/10/12 09:12 PM (11 years, 3 months ago)

In CCAJ at 0.0043
expecting a huge movement on volume in the morning :cool:


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: sofa_king_happy]
    #17010392 - 10/11/12 08:09 AM (11 years, 3 months ago)

:lolwut:  Dude, sub-penny stocks are a complete and utter gamble, you have no edge.  There was a pretty huge move this morning, down 16.67%. :facepalm:


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #17012346 - 10/11/12 02:32 PM (11 years, 3 months ago)

Wow today was an interesting one. I did great overall namely due to my position in sprint (even though it has been reduced from before) and the steel sector - AKS and X.

I was watching the coal sector move on up the entire day, couldn't pull the trigger but now that the day is over they are up big and at day highs..  Going to watch these in the coming trading days as these are fast movers and have a lot of room to the upside. Look at a 2 year weekly chart to see what I mean.

I was also watching a company owned by sprint Clearwire CLWR march on up the entire day.  By the end of the day it was up over 70% :shocked:.  I saw it when it was only up 40% and in my head I was thinking "no way I am buying that today" thinking it was overbought.  It just got way more "overbought" as the day went on.  I expect some kind of pullback just from profit taking but looking at a longer term (such as the 2 year weekly chart) a lot of potential upside exists.  I don't know too much about the company but it deals 4G to people and I figure that is here to stay with a lot of growth potential.

Overall my portfolio was taking small hits pretty much everyday over the past week and after today it is higher then it was a week ago.  While this is only one case, it should help confirm how important it is to not take large losses so it is possible to stay involved when things go up. 

I didn't do much today except sell half of my Sprint position and open one in MHR.  Most of my money is dedicated to the steel sector split between X and AKS - I see more gains before it hits short term resistance.

Lastly, Apple is being quite annoying not participating on green days, but looking at the weekly chart, this may be the time to add.

Total positions:
Short:  Best Buy (BBY)

Long: Apple (AAPL)
Pac Sun (PSUN)
American Steel (X)
AK Steel (AKS)
Sprint (S)
Magnum Hunter Resources (MHR)

Best of luck to everyone (especially now that its earnings season - luck helps a lot! :tongue:)


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Offlineben_dover0802
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #17019624 - 10/12/12 04:47 PM (11 years, 3 months ago)

Gave some of it back today, but again, the loss is small compared to the gain of yesterday so I am okay with it.  I didn't make any moves today, my current positions are the same as above.

I am wondering if you still have that short on TJX Geo, if so, nice move! I don't think its too late to make some money shorting this one once it rallies a little.  I also wanted to mention XCO so I don't forget about it.  It looks like the start of an uptrend here and the weekly chart looks like it could go out on a squeeze.  The coal stocks pulled back today but I am waiting for the first up day to consider buying some shares.  However, the coal company JRCC has the best chart of all of them, I haven't really been paying attention to this specific company but it is in a volatility squeeze to the upside right now.  If it comes down, this is the one I will most likely be picking up along with the biggest, safest name in the coal sector, BTU.

Its hard to say where the market as a whole is headed but if I had to pick one or the other, I would guess a rally at the beginning of the week, that is why I am mostly long.  However, I could easily see it going down as well so I am not too confident about my positions and will be prepared to sell.  Especially since the S&P is at a major moving average which it has bounced before.


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Offlinescatmanrav
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #17021709 - 10/12/12 11:27 PM (11 years, 3 months ago)

Nice gain on netflix for common stock even, I wish I was on that train, but I just felt it was up to high right from the start. I was dead wrong but didnt want to chase, oh well.

Sprint is selling 70% to a Japanese cell phone company and they and CLWR are getting some money pumped in their stock for sure. I think geokills has traded CLWR before. Went up even more friday, but started to give in to selling pressure. Probably going to pullback a bit now but I could see them both going through the roof. Hopefully I can get in soon.

I wish I picked Sprint, instead I went with Verizon, an ITM (was anyway, now just OTM) long call for Jan, been crushed since I bought it, but small position and I think I just bought it about a week to soon. AA hasnt been very friendly to me, but its still slightly up, I did buy that at the bottom, I just hope the now triple bottom holds up. Again an ITM Jan call. Then somehow I bought two different strikes of XCO, 6 and 7, for March. I meant to go with the 6, although the 7 has made more money. They look good. I bought all these last Friday I believe then started an account transfer so I cant touch my account for 5 to 10 days while its moved to OptionsHouse. I also bought 100 shares of WFT at 11.95, bottom of the channel, with the intention of holding it and selling a covered call here and there in the 13 or 14 strike.

Pac Sun doesnt look to great on the chart to me, down through the 50 day moving average and developing some resistance there, be careful. Money is pouring out from retail right now (the whole sector). Stick with the metals, energy, financials I think. But I also think we are at a point where the market could pull back so be ready for it after all the gains that have been going on the last few months. I think there may be room for shorting alot of retail stocks though coming up. That BBY one looks great, boatloads of resistance above it.

BTU looks great though, up through resistance, looks good for at least a couple more dollars up to the 200 DMA, then we'll see but could go up through it. Big volume there, sprint and CLWR, which is a good sign there will be alot more people following them in.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #17023208 - 10/13/12 10:38 AM (11 years, 3 months ago)

> I am wondering if you still have that short on TJX Geo

Yes, although I was stopped out of the common stock short position which would have been the real money maker.  I am still short the name via March $40 puts, but they are so far out and still out of the money, that they are not moving too much yet.  I shouldn't have bought so far (10%+) out of the money on this one, that was my bad.

Speaking of my bad, it's been a pretty bad week for me generally.  I'm hanging in there by the skin of my teeth on those $625/610 bull put spreads on AAPL.  They expire this coming Friday, but seeing as AAPL has barely been able to hold the upper strike, I do not feel great about the position, particularly since I initiated it at a higher level and am underwater (as I was on the $660/650's I closed out, as well as the $640/630's).  I failed to implement my risk management strategy soon enough, and I am learning the lesson by paying a high price on these spreads.  I only recently started trading spreads within the last year, so clearly, I became overconfident that these would "play out" in my favor and didn't heed the warning signs when the underlying stock really started to crash through support.  It's particularly frustrating, because of the low valuation on the stock in conjunction with phenomenal company fundamentals and product pipeline, but as the old saying goes... the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.  While I'm no where near at risk of blowing up my account, it is incredibly frustrating to see months of hard fought gains go up in smoke within a couple of weeks.

It was unfortunate to see JPM and WFC trade down after earnings this week.  I was stopped out of my JPM calls, still have a few WFC and BAC's, but the poor action on these stocks is concerning, particularly JPM after they reported a decent quarter and in light of the tailwinds from the Fed policy that is essentially maintaining an artificially wide spread on the interest rates banks can grab through lending, mortgage and otherwise. Then you had the transports trading up on the day, which seemed really weird since they have been lagging for a while and the major averages were all flat or down on Friday.  Frankly, I can't make sense of it, and I have a feeling the uncertainty of the presidential election will have us staying in a relatively aimless holding pattern with a downside bias throughout the duration of the cycle.  I certainly don't have any edge or gut feeling about where the market will be heading from here, and I see little potential positive catalyst (beyond earnings, which haven't been working so well thus far), and I see plenty of negative headlines continuing to cross the wire pertaining to the "fiscal cliff" blah blah blah... so I have a feeling I'll be trading a lot less this month.


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Offlinesofa_king_happy
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #17034081 - 10/15/12 08:26 AM (11 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
:lolwut:  Dude, sub-penny stocks are a complete and utter gamble, you have no edge.  There was a pretty huge move this morning, down 16.67%. :facepalm:



hehe, i did get burned on that one and it was gamble of only about $100.
Got it back and then some with a 11% gain on EKNL :smile:
-Happy Trading


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