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OfflineBambi
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #16854450 - 09/16/12 01:42 AM (11 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

ben_dover0802 said:
Also the homebuilders are still outperforming, I have been in and out of these, making a small amount of money, but it would have been much more profitable to just buy and hold or execute proper risk management to not get completely out.  Lesson hopefully learned

Best of luck to everyone.





I have been in and out of MHO this whole year pretty much and enjoyed nice rides. For a while i was out performing a buy and hold, but I got nervous and didnt buy anymore. That was at  17ish and last i saw it broke 20...

Hope i learned my lesson as well


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Offlineben_dover0802
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Bambi]
    #16859738 - 09/16/12 10:50 PM (11 years, 4 months ago)

Yes MHO is a good one, that is the one I usually buy, I believe I have mentioned it before. LEN and TOL are two others doing quite well at multi year highs. Even though KBH isn't at new highs it has been performing well lately.  BZH is one that was beaten down and possibly may hold the most short term upside if this sector really takes off.  It would be a good idea to keep an eye on this sector.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #16868910 - 09/18/12 01:53 PM (11 years, 4 months ago)

I am loaded to the gills with a full position on AAPL as it looks set to close at an all time high and above the psychologically significant $700 level.  I also bought some $35.50 calls on WFC that expire this Friday.  The WFC calls are a lottery ticket for sure, but given the way the stock is acting into the close, I think it's a worthwhile gamble.  Also took a small common stock position in CHK at $19.95, as it seems to be coiling here just under the 200 day moving average.  On a pop above $20.60ish, I will be adding to the position.

This is just a tricky market, as if you haven't been participating over the past couple of weeks, you're probably having a hard time buying since it really feels like chasing.  And it is chasing.  But the fed's QE announcement this week is truly a bit of a "put" on the market that will keep an underlying bid as major money has no where to go but into risk assets, or risk devaluation due to inflationary pressures and low interest rates.  It's not smart, it doesn't make sense in the long run, but it is what it is and it really looks like this is the time to have at least some meaningful exposure to stocks, especially if we pull back to 1425-1440ish on the S&P.

For the more conservative long term investors of the bunch, I would suggest taking a position in PSEC, a private equity firm that is paying a greater than 10% annual dividend yield, and is taking a 5% hit on the share price today after a firm downgraded the stock on valuation concerns.  This stock doesn't get you rich, but it does provide good cash flow and has been relatively stable for long term holders.  If you are new to it, I would suggest taking a 25-30% position size right now, and then waiting for an announcement of a secondary share offering (that's how the business raises capital to lend to other businesses), to add to your position.


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InvisibleGilgamesh18
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #16869457 - 09/18/12 03:19 PM (11 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
I am loaded to the gills with a full position on AAPL as it looks set to close at an all time high and above the psychologically significant $700 level.  I also bought some $35.50 calls on WFC that expire this Friday.  The WFC calls are a lottery ticket for sure, but given the way the stock is acting into the close, I think it's a worthwhile gamble.  Also took a small common stock position in CHK at $19.95, as it seems to be coiling here just under the 200 day moving average.  On a pop above $20.60ish, I will be adding to the position.

This is just a tricky market, as if you haven't been participating over the past couple of weeks, you're probably having a hard time buying since it really feels like chasing.  And it is chasing.  But the fed's QE announcement this week is truly a bit of a "put" on the market that will keep an underlying bid as major money has no where to go but into risk assets, or risk devaluation due to inflationary pressures and low interest rates.  It's not smart, it doesn't make sense in the long run, but it is what it is and it really looks like this is the time to have at least some meaningful exposure to stocks, especially if we pull back to 1425-1440ish on the S&P.

For the more conservative long term investors of the bunch, I would suggest taking a position in PSEC, a private equity firm that is paying a greater than 10% annual dividend yield, and is taking a 5% hit on the share price today after a firm downgraded the stock on valuation concerns.  This stock doesn't get you rich, but it does provide good cash flow and has been relatively stable for long term holders.  If you are new to it, I would suggest taking a 25-30% position size right now, and then waiting for an announcement of a secondary share offering (that's how the business raises capital to lend to other businesses), to add to your position.




How do you feel about BlackRock Geo?


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Gilgamesh18]
    #16869613 - 09/18/12 03:42 PM (11 years, 4 months ago)

I haven't followed the company (BLK), but at a cursory glance, the stock has been trading in a wide range over the past several years with no discernible trend, though volatility does appear to be tightening up a bit with an average price of around $175 a share.  Their dividend of some 3.2% does not get my attention and their valuation on price to earnings as well as price to earnings growth are generally in line with the average stock in the S&P500.  Therefore, I don't really see an edge as to why this stock would be a big money maker in the near term.  As an income investment, the dividend just isn't juicy enough for me.


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InvisibleGilgamesh18
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #16869993 - 09/18/12 04:58 PM (11 years, 4 months ago)

I gotcha what drew me to the company was there vast amount of assets that Larry Fink manages the ceo. I believe it is over 3 trillion dollars at the moment.


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Offlineben_dover0802
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Gilgamesh18]
    #16870174 - 09/18/12 05:29 PM (11 years, 4 months ago)

I am still waiting for a small pullback on AAPL but maybe it would be better just to buy it as ultimately it is almost surely going higher, probably sooner than later.  Maybe tomorrow will be the day I grab some.

I added to my short oil position, DUG, yesterday and added a bit more today, but sold more of it at the end of the day.  This may be all of a pullback we get with QE going on.  However, I am still holding onto a pretty sizable chunk (25%) of my total stock investments in case we still drop a little more.

I also bought some ATRS stock today as today is day 1 of a volatility breakout towards the upside.  I may add tomorrow if the squeeze is confirmed.

Lastly I bought some SINA today, it is in a strong uptrend and at the bottom of a couple week rapidly rising channel. Keeping a close stop on this one.

I am not involved in F (Ford) at the moment but it looks quite strong. I also see a bullish flag pattern on the daily chart. Keeping an eye on this one.

Best wishes


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #16873957 - 09/19/12 10:16 AM (11 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

I am still waiting for a small pullback on AAPL but maybe it would be better just to buy it...




I have a ton of built in profits already, and added to my position yesterday when the stock crossed $700.  The fact that it is holding that level this morning is a good sign.  If AAPL doesn't fall below $700 soon, and you don't own any, I think you should just buy some and hang on for a while.  The company's valuation is still very low, the iPhone5 launch is off to a great start and we're not even in the holiday season, with speculation of a new iPad mini coming out in the near future as well as speculation of a pending deal with a Chinese mobile carrier that could potentially double iPhone5 sales.  Not saying the stock won't fall back to $675 - 680 if we catch a string of bad days in the market, but it seems unlikely given all that this company has going for it.

My WFC lottery tickets were 200% this morning (in dollar terms that was less than $250, as my capital commitment was minimal in light of the high risk nature of the position).  I'm still hanging on, even though the stock is floundering about, however I did place a stop on the position so that I will exit profitably (~+75%) if intraday support at $35.60 falls away.

WFM is peaking its head out of its volatility squeeze, just about to tag the $100 level that it has been ramming its head against but has been unable to break for months.  I'm in with a few lottery tickets via $100 and $105 calls that expire in three days, but I also bought 50 shares of common stock just to keep myself involved, 'cause this one has a pretty nice setup.

Should've bought a starter in KBH yesterday, as I have no exposure to the sector, but I was hoping for the stock to come down closer to $12.  Well, I missed it, and wasn't paying enough attention this morning to catch it below $13.  Going to wait this one out and watch the stock.

FB on the move too, long some common and weekly $23 calls.


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Offlineben_dover0802
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #16875793 - 09/19/12 04:28 PM (11 years, 4 months ago)

Yeah that makes sense. I decided not to buy AAPL today after all and coincidentally actually opened a position in KBH today before I saw your post. My reason was more upside if the entire market cooperates.  Of course, this also means more downside risk so we will see how that works out for me. 

Additionally I cut my DUG position by about 60%.  It was nice for the major indexes to be up yet the 2x short oil/gas ETF to also be up by a couple percentage points. 


Had a good day today for the market only being slightly up. Let the good times roll!


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #16875803 - 09/19/12 04:32 PM (11 years, 4 months ago)

Got tossed out of my WFC position... AGAIN.  Fuck, that stock has been chopping me up something fierce.  On the upside, my FB calls were up 120% at the close.  All in all though, today was a wash.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #16879810 - 09/20/12 12:24 PM (11 years, 4 months ago)

AAPL gave us a bit of a pullback this morning.  Although not particularly deep, I took the opportunity to write a handful of Bull Put Credit Spreads, by selling the October $660 put and buying the October $650 put.  Given today's price action, you could get up to $200 per spread, which equates to a $800 max loss if AAPL is below $650 at the time of October expiration, a $200 gain if AAPL is above $660, and breakeven if apple is at ~$658.  Given the well received iPhone 5 announcement and solid presale numbers in conjunction with Apple's tendency to run higher into its earnings report, this is a high probability conservative trade.  Apple will report just prior to October expiration, and I don't see why the "run higher" dynamic of this stock would change, especially in light of strong iPhone 5 sales.  Therefore, the $660/650 should remain out of the money up to earnings, and I will probably close the position for slightly less than max profit, just prior to earnings, in order to avoid a surprise negative reaction once they announce.  If AAPL continues to pull back into early next week, I will continue to write more of these spreads for a larger credit.


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Re: Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: OneMoreRobot3021]
    #16883161 - 09/20/12 09:20 PM (11 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

OneMoreRobot3021 said:
Dude, it could be a drug related comedy about two stoners that get involved in the stock market. Get it? Buy High, Sell Low!



"Aint the problem with selling things when you is high, is that sometimes you get like really bad deals?"


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Edited by Heffy (09/20/12 09:22 PM)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #16885206 - 09/21/12 07:56 AM (11 years, 4 months ago)

Closed my FB $23 calls this morning for no gain/loss (they expire today and are only $0.10 in the money as of this writing).  My WFM lotto tickets look to be expiring worthless today, but the stock is truly knockin' on the door at $100.  It's early in the day, and though I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock get pinned here at $100, I also wouldn't be surprised to see it break through, it's had a long period of consolidation and if not today, it seems like it wants to break higher fairly soon.  The longer it stays in this range between $96 - $99, the more explosive that break ought to be.

AAPL, god bless it... wish I wrote more bull put spreads on this stock yesterday, but it's chugging along with a nice break through $700 this morning on the back of huge initial sales in Asia, and is definitely the freight train in my portfolio.

KBH,  missed it again.  Should have just bit the bullet and got involved.  In fact, forget about should of, I'm going to buy a very small position right here just to keep a better eye on it.  So small that it can pull back 10% and won't bother me.  Sometimes you just have to get involved, and if the risk is high, mitigate that risk by taking a smaller position, giving yourself room to add on a meaningful pullback.  Funny enough, that small position is already up 1% since I started writing this paragraph.

Gold and silver, freight trains to the moon.  Everyone with an investment portfolio or a diligent asset allocation strategy needs to have a position in one of these metals.  Governments are mandating inflation through the Fed's (and ECB's) actions, this is a secular story and isn't likely to quit soon.  It's bullshit policy, but it is responsible for putting an underlying bid below the market.  You don't need to love it, but you do need to understand it, if you want to preserve or grow your capital.

And with that, WFM tags $100 for the first time in its history.  Hmm, I guess my $100 calls won't expire worthless afterall!  No time to be greedy though, I'm closing out the position for a small gain.  The $105 calls are a sacrifice to the trading gods, but such is the nature of trading.

Best.


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Offlineben_dover0802
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #16885368 - 09/21/12 08:37 AM (11 years, 4 months ago)

Yes that KBH is kicking ass in my portfolio right now, its been going up steadily from the open.  Probably going to take a little profit after it finishes going up.  Nothing else is too exciting, watching GM now, thinking about starting a position....

Edit: Also looking at S (sprint) looks like it may be starting a quick march ahead), I want to be involved in this as well.
Edit again: Bought a near full S position @ $5.61. Optimistic about this one


Edited by ben_dover0802 (09/21/12 09:07 AM)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #16885389 - 09/21/12 08:43 AM (11 years, 4 months ago)

Looks like they (KBH) beat on earnings $0.04 EPS versus an expected $0.175 loss per share.  That's a pretty significant beat.  I tentatively plan to add to my position on a move back to $13.50, aggregate market dynamics depending.  Wish I would've "balled to the walls'd" it this morning, but it was already up 4.5% when I noticed it, I didn't think it would double that gain in another 45 minutes! :tongue:


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #16885821 - 09/21/12 10:25 AM (11 years, 4 months ago)

Alright, I had to sell my KBH just now at $14.60 to pocket a quick one fitty.  Huge volume spike, up over 12% on the day.  Too bad it was such a small position, but I'd rather book the quick flip and look to re-enter on a pullback 'cause this thing is about to hit its third standard deviation above its 20 day moving average, and that is almost always an unsustainable move that brings a near term pull back or at least some sideways consolidation.

Edit:  New highs on the day... about to hit $15. :foreheadslap:
Double Edit:  $15.43... that'd would have doubled my intraday gain :foreheadslap::foreheadslap: :tongue2:


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #16885929 - 09/21/12 10:48 AM (11 years, 4 months ago)

facebook taking off eventually ?


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ohmatic]
    #16886060 - 09/21/12 11:11 AM (11 years, 4 months ago)

FB is already up over 30% in the last 17 days!  It's still highly speculative, but probably safe to start wading into, however I would prefer to see it pull back and find support around $21 for a better technical entry with an improved risk:reward ratio, since the stock's 50 day moving average will continue to trend sideways to slightly down for a little while longer.


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Offlineben_dover0802
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ohmatic]
    #16886088 - 09/21/12 11:17 AM (11 years, 4 months ago)

Facebook has been rising lately traveling up the upper bollenger, but It looks like momentum is starting to slow down, it just had a decent run. iI you already have some maybe you should put a stop down soon to protect any profits (I would around $22.40, below yesterdays intraday low, if it falls to this level I would expect it to drop more).  If you are thinking about buying I honestly would wait and see if a pullback occurs but that's just my opinion.


Still holding on to my decent sized position in KBH :cool: It just busted through $15. I agree it should drop to lower levels eventually though - waiting for it to stop going up to sell


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #16886123 - 09/21/12 11:21 AM (11 years, 4 months ago)

Hah, yeah, I fumbled KBH pretty nicely.  Who would've thought the darn thing would be up 17% on the day?! :jawdrop:

And to think, I had the fleeting thought of loading up on $14 then-out-of-the-money calls that expired today.  That sure would've been sweet!  Reckless, but sweet!


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