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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Yrat]
#16793480 - 09/05/12 04:34 PM (11 years, 4 months ago) |
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The market has a funny way of making us all feel like geniuses when it goes up. Be mindful of this mechanism, and definitely setup some stop losses. 24% in 2 months is huge.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#16804318 - 09/07/12 10:58 AM (11 years, 4 months ago) |
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Well my trades on XME, both the common stock and the short puts, have been working miracles, with the ETF up over 8% in two days. I took 1/3 of the common stock off just a moment ago, and moved up a stop on half of the remaining position to $43.53. The final half of the remaining position would be stopped out on a move below $42. I intend to ride the short $38 puts through to October expiration in order to collect the full premium, as this is looking to setup as a power move out of a prolonged base (weekly chart of XME shows higher low and higher high from the all time low of $37.10 set in late July), even though we still have that pesky 200 day moving average looming overhead at around $46. With all the chatter about QE3, I am not surprised that we are seeing this move in the metals complex.
I am also trading around my core position in AAPL via common stock, since the options are just too expensive (i.e. too much premium) for short term flips. The iPhone5 debuts next week, and with the patent rulings against Samsung favoring AAPL's dominance, along with the potential for a smaller iPad to cut off lower cost Android competition at the knees, I think AAPL can steamroll higher for a while.
This market has been deathly strong, remarkable, but when the powers that be come up for re-election, this is usually what happens. It's not necessarily right or fair, but it is what it is, and you should trade accordingly.
Unfortunately, because of my injury, I'm really just trading to pay my medical bills. Fortunately, if I need to get the arthroscopic surgery that looks to be the case, I've paid for half of it in two days! It sure will be nice to walk again...
Trade safe, be safe.
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Edited by geokills (09/07/12 01:40 PM)
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qman
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#16804722 - 09/07/12 12:13 PM (11 years, 4 months ago) |
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Geo, sorry to hear about your knee injury, I am sure you will recover quickly and resume normal use. Bang out a few good trades and make those medical bills disappear.
Looks like gold and silver are finally starting to breakout, why it took so long makes little sense, but the printing fest is going to hit even a higher gear in the coming weeks and months.
GDX and GDXJ are are also really beginning to move as well, the beaten down miners are extremely undervalued and are just playing catch up at this point.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: qman]
#16805157 - 09/07/12 01:38 PM (11 years, 4 months ago) |
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The consolidation in metals is natural I think, everything in the market has an ebb and a flow. It seems that part of the reason for the breakout now, has to do with the ECB making more blatant moves to follow in similar fashion to the US Fed's quantitative easing program, whereby two parties (the Fed and the Treasury) have been complicit in a scheme to finance their own debt. It has been proving more difficult for the ECB however, because they have numerous member nations with separate interests, and some are cognizant enough to say "Hey, wait a minute, your deal is whack!"
If it weren't for the dissenting EU nations such as Germany, Austria, Finland and the Netherlands, the ECB would probably have already started doing something similar through the use of Eurobonds (where the lenders are borrowers and the borrowers are lenders), but the aforementioned nations are smart enough to realize that they don't want to be on the hook for the liabilities of irresponsible Euro members who will likely default, which has managed to slow the process of the ECB building its own house of cards in an efforts to delay the inevitable. Nevertheless, it seems that the ECB is gaining momentum to put into play some sort of similar scheme, which is at least in part responsible for the fire that has lit up under the metals complex in particular.
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scatmanrav
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#16810059 - 09/08/12 09:04 AM (11 years, 4 months ago) |
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There have been a lot of stocks in a volatility squeeze that are just starting to break out. I have learned SO much from stockmarketmentor.com, just from watching the free chart a day.
For anyone who hasnt checked it out, do it right now. Geo recommended it way back in a few posts but I just felt I never had time to delve into a full website, or so I thought. Really its a pretty small website with four sections. Three of them you have to pay for, its just videos in two of the pay sections and a forum in the other. But one section is completely free. He examines a chart every day and explains it to you. It is the best learning tool I have found so far. If your reading this and you havent checked it out, sign up for his free chart of the day. I get sick of all the emails from all the companies out there that send you stock picks ect ect, they are usually just paid to promote what they do. Dan Fitzpatrick (who runs the site and makes the videos) is not like that, and doesnt give you "picks" in the free chart of the day, he shows you charts to watch and be interested in and most importantly shows you how to make your own picks.
Soon I'll sign up for the 30 day free trial now that I have just signed a margin agreement to be able to short with my account, but I dont know if I can spend the 80 dollars a month for the membership as much as I'd like to and believe that theres some great info there behind the member area.
So I've been poking around for the last few weeks, making a couple bucks, no big mistakes, watching those free chart videos helps keep me on track. I've built up a watch list from watching them, although I'd like to learn to use chart scanners to build up my own watch lists. I jumped into CAB and BIIB on Wednesday, CAB had just squeezed, then broke out on tuesday, and I bought on a small pullback on Wednesday before more follow through the last two days. BIIB I bought at a low right before the big breakout on thursday, and then Friday it started to pull back but the buyers came back in by the end of the day to squeak it a bit higher. I feel theres a lot more upside to both so I'm gonna watch the positions over the next week or two.
I'm finding one of the biggest challenges right now is learning to trade with a small amount of money. Its difficult when you lose 14 dollars in commissions just buying and selling once, more if you manage your risk by buying a little, then buying more later. Thats already a big portion of what I invest if I only put a third of my cash into a position. Also more difficult to diversify. The 1000 dollars or 500 dollars scottrade lets you start an account with is not nearly enough, even 3 or 4 thousand can be difficult to invest and manage your risk using the usual methods. Stop losses work well, but I almost got myself into a free ride situation, whatever that is, it doesn't sound good. You gotta make sure you keep some cash though to keep your trading fluid.
Well, that was a lot, but I'm feeling good about my knowledge of the market working, much like Yrat after losing a good amount before, mostly in one stupid trade (IDNG). Hopefully it continues and I dont screw up this trade and hold it to long .
And if you havnt gone there go here now: http://www.stockmarketmentor.com/public/department27.cfm
Thats the free charts, you can go back and watch old videos and newer ones while you have the chart up so you can check and see where the charts are today, and where they went and how they got to where they are. Its most excellent.
EDIT: I also meant to add that I was saw on the news that the stock market often predicts the presidency. When its been up before the election, the president gets reelected, when its been down before the election, the new guy wins. Only 3 times was it wrong (most recently in 04 when the market was down and Bush somehow still got back into office). I dont know if it'll happen, but interesting.
Another interesting thing to me, is Napolean Boneparte made shorting illegal...damn the stock market is that old? I cant even imagine what trading in the stock market was like back then...
Edited by scatmanrav (09/11/12 09:54 AM)
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: scatmanrav]
#16829820 - 09/11/12 03:52 PM (11 years, 4 months ago) |
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I like the way the market has been behaving so far this week, but the real test will be to see what comes out of the German courts tomorrow pertaining to the constitutional legality of the European Stability Mechanism (aka the European bailout fund). Fed rates and notes on Thursday will also be important. But all in all, the volatility pop on the financials and metals and even the S&P 500 is what has been catching my eye. Already had a great trade on the XME, and am continuing to let my short $38 Oct puts ride.
I have implemented the following "lottery ticket" plays pertaining to a continued breakout on the S&P, with a focus on financials in particular.
- JPM Sep $40 calls - volatility expansion to the upside
- WFC Sep $35 calls - pending volatility expansion to the upside
- XME Sep $46 calls - volatility expansion to the upside
- WFM Sep $105 calls - volatility squeeze, no movement yet
- ROST Oct $65 puts - volatility expansion to the downside
Because all of these positions are out of the money, they are inherently low probability. However, this also means that the contracts themselves are quite cheap, allowing me to risk a relatively low amount of capital, with the potential to control a relatively large amount of stock, if the trades work in my favor... hence why I'm referring to them as "lottery ticket" plays.
I did also buy some common stock on CHK, in anticipation of a volatility expansion that will cause the stock to break out above its 200 day moving average.
We'll see what happens...
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PDU
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#16830219 - 09/11/12 05:07 PM (11 years, 4 months ago) |
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Geokills - are you all self taught? Do you live off this? How long have you been investing, and how did you get started?
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scatmanrav
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: PDU]
#16832427 - 09/11/12 11:15 PM (11 years, 4 months ago) |
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Im getting interested in options the more I look at shorting. In ways options almost seem less risky then shorting or just buying stock. How many shares at that price can you purchase? Is it lots of 100 so you have to purchase a full 100 shares, assuming you exorcize the right and arent just buying to trade before they expire anyway?
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: PDU]
#16833577 - 09/12/12 08:25 AM (11 years, 4 months ago) |
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PDU, Yes I am what you could consider self taught, and have been actively managing my portfolio for the past five years or there abouts. This is not how I make my living, it is a hobby to grow my savings. In other words, I never count on money from the market, and thus would never put more money into it, than I would be able to lose without adversely affecting my overall living standards.
I got started by flippin' through TV channels one day while I was under the weather, and happening upon Jim Cramer's "Mad Money" program on CNBC. I had never watched CNBC prior to that point, but this mad man was incredibly entertaining to watch, had tremendous enthusiasm and made me believe that if I put my mind to it, I could make money in the stock market. I watched him fairly religiously for a couple of years, all through the crash of 2008, read his books as well as the commentary from contributors at his website RealMoney.com, which is where I found out about Dan Fitzpatrick, who runs StockMarketMentor.com. SMM has proven to be the primary asset in helping maintain my focus on areas of the market that are working (or not working), as the subscription service provides nightly and weekend strategy sessions that review macro data and general trading techniques as they apply to specific stocks or sectors. The community forum there is filled with lots of active traders who post information all day long, some good and some not so good, but it's nice to have a place where people are putting their money where their mouth is, to study as a microcosm of the aggregate marketplace.
I don't really watch Cramer anymore, because I just don't like to put up with the TV... too much sensationalistic garbage that isn't useful, and can confuse your emotions when trading well is really all about ditching the emotions and utilizing discipline to identify high probability trades and/or manage your risk at all times. I definitely lost a lot of money when I started, not realizing the importance of risk management and literally getting frozen as I saw my positions bleeding money during the crash of '08. Worse yet, I probably averaged down a few times that ended up losing me even more money when I ultimately panicked out of the positions. Fortunately, those days are long gone, and I rarely take meaningful losses now. Instead, I cut my losers early and let my winners do their job. Believe me, it sounds easier than it is! But on the other hand, this isn't rocket science, so if you can master your emotions and work to understand trader psychology and crowd mentality, you can make the market work for you.
Some books I would suggest:- Jim Cramer's Real Money
- John Bollinger's Bollinger on Bollinger Bands
- James Surowiecki's The Wisdom of Crowds
And of course, sign up for the free trial over at StockMarketMentor.com. 
Quote:
scatmanrav said: Im getting interested in options the more I look at shorting. In ways options almost seem less risky then shorting or just buying stock.
You are misinformed. Options are derivative instruments that involve time value and volatility calculations to price, and thus are more complex to understand, in addition to requiring you to understand the underlying stock that they track, in order to use them safely. Even when you understand the mechanism, their leveraged power can make or break you very quickly if you are not very careful in implementing a strict regiment of risk management by stringently controlling your position size.
When you buy or short a stock, all you have to worry about is the stock itself, not how much time decay your position is experiencing (or how it may accelerate as your contract nears expiration), whether it is in or out of the money, or how liquid it is. In practically every case, options are not as liquid as the underlying stocks they track, and in some cases this can be true to such an extent that the difference between the Bid and the Offer price for a given contract could immediately cause you to be down 20% or more on the position just for having opened it, because the Bid/Offer spread is so wide.
Now it is true that when you are just BUYING a Call or a Put option, you have identified your maximum risk. You know that if you buy $300 worth of calls or puts, the most you will lose is $300. In that sense, I can see why it might appear to be less risky than shorting or buying a stock. But rarely should you allow the complete purchase price of your option to be an acceptable loss; just as with a stock, you should be identifying your risk such that you will not lose more than, say 25 - 50% of the value before you abandon ship. This will force you to choose better entries and instill the discipline necessary to cut a loser before it causes you to bleed to much. The problem with options is, again, the spread between the bid/offer. You generally will loose a little bit of money buying in to an option, just as you will give up a little bit selling out. When trading in or out of a stock, the amount you give upon these transactions is negligible, because any stock worth its salt will have a very tight bid/offer spread. Just use stop orders on your common stock positions to manage your risk, and you will be good to go.
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Absolute

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#16833867 - 09/12/12 09:48 AM (11 years, 4 months ago) |
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You can use me as a contrarian indicator. I just sold PNRA because it wasn't doing anything and now it popped 5%. Same thing happened to me with PSX when Buffet started buying.
I am not doing too bad I am up 16% for the year. Which is okay for me. I am extremely conservative and I wasn't trading very actively until the summer. I have to see how to deal with a down market. I can't short right now. I might use the SH spy short etf.
I have a subscription to Investors Business Daily. I don't use it too much other that to look at the lists and stock checkups.
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scatmanrav
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Absolute]
#16833951 - 09/12/12 10:13 AM (11 years, 4 months ago) |
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I didnt mean to imply they were less difficult, I do see how they are more difficult to understand, just less risky. Mainly as you pointed out the risk is defined (as I saw it before anyway) as that option you buy. But I'm also not thinking of the whole abandoning ship part and the spread while trying to do so. All things to consider, I'll be staying away from them for a long while anyway as they are very complicated to understand. But the defined risk makes me want to learn about them. Especially the long term ones, making time less of a factor.
Thanks for the info. I hope the new optionsmarketmentor.com has a free video of the day too.
I've just been holding my CAB and BIIB as they slowly go up, mostly sideways for now, but they still look good to me Looking for a stock to try and short. ROST isnt looking to bad.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#16840083 - 09/13/12 09:18 AM (11 years, 4 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said:
I am also trading around my core position in AAPL via common stock, since the options are just too expensive (i.e. too much premium) for short term flips. The iPhone5 debuts next week, and with the patent rulings against Samsung favoring AAPL's dominance, along with the potential for a smaller iPad to cut off lower cost Android competition at the knees, I think AAPL can steamroll higher for a while.
Well, Apple had its keynote presentation on the iPhone5 as well as the iOS 6, a new lineup of iPods and their new MacBook Pro. Everything sounded good, the iPhone5 now supports mobile technology that will give it compatibility with China Mobile's network, the largest in the world, so if they can ink a deal there, they could sell twice as many phones as anticipated otherwise. The phone also supports LTE networks for fast connections, sports a longer screen, is lighter, thinner and just generally a very fine piece of industrial engineering. Facetime (video phone) will now be available over cellular networks as opposed to only WiFi, and they are sporting a new connection interface, which will add plenty of additional revenue from the sales of adapter pieces from all the old charging/docking equipment that has been sold to consumers already. Most importantly, the rollout of the new phone is going to be exceptionally fast, with the phone shipping in 20 countries within a couple of weeks.
I bought a January 2013 $655 call yesterday during the keynote, and am waiting for an opportunity to add to that position now that it is handily in the green and I am trading from a position of strength, because I have a built in profit cushion that will allow me to more comfortably add to my position when the opportunity presents itself.
I have also been buying some November $40 calls on ANF, as they had a big volume spike yesterday, right off of their 50 day moving average and the stock is presently in a volatility squeeze. The pop was due to the company hiring Goldman Sachs, possibly in efforts to explore a sale of the business. In any case, investors were excited about it, and I want to commit a little bit of capital on this one just in case. Retail has been performing pretty well, and my exposure has been entirely through AAPL. It's time to add a new name in this area, and I think ANF is a good one.
Next up, all eyes on the Fed announcement this afternoon pertaining to interest rate policy and possible mention of further quantitative wheezing.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#16840651 - 09/13/12 11:23 AM (11 years, 4 months ago) |
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Well that was nice. The Fed is going to run an open ended program whereby it will be purchasing mortgage backed securities and long term treasuries, as necessary, until they are satisfied that the economy is working well again. This is a significant change from previous policy where they would set a time limit and dollar cap on their operation. They also indicated that interest rates will be kept low through mid 2015. This is favorable for the market, and we see it popping as I type. My options in the financials in particular, as well as AAPL of course, are kicking ass. 
In the fray of all this green on my screen, I did get filled on an order for VXX March 2013 $12 calls. Granted, if the market remains strong, this position will not work. But on the other hand, there is a lot of time on these VXX contracts, and if the market does face an unexpected swoon, this position can act as insurance.
Also just bagged a few minute ride on FB for a quick flip, paid for a nice dinner.
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qman
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#16840818 - 09/13/12 12:07 PM (11 years, 4 months ago) |
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I was a buyer of some GDXJ calls, I got the Fed 2013 27's, gold and silver up strong on the new money printing plan. I doubt the mortgage buying plan will have any effect on the real economy, it's more about stabilizing the banks balance sheets.
We should be seeing new highs in gold and silver after this announcement, QE to infinity and beyond.
Also, looks like the 10 and 30 year bond yields are moving higher, looks like Ben might have another headache to deal with if that keeps up.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: qman]
#16840885 - 09/13/12 12:27 PM (11 years, 4 months ago) |
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Added a little bit to my ANF Nov $40 calls and picked up a small starter position in CMA, which is a no-EU exposure regional bank emerging from a volatility squeeze near all of its major moving averages. This has been a pretty awesome day for my portfolio!
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Yrat
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#16841405 - 09/13/12 02:44 PM (11 years, 4 months ago) |
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portfolio is now up 30% from two months ago, my inflation/money-printing plays are finally coming to fruition. i have been dabbling in some miners, all of which have seen some major upwards action in the last several weeks after a long slow drop.
-------------------- "There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil to one who is striking at the root." -Henry David Thoreau Strike The Root
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Bambi
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Yrat]
#16841753 - 09/13/12 04:00 PM (11 years, 4 months ago) |
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The past, almost 3 months I have been doing pretty well in the market. Although it has been an easy ride i must admit. I still have 2 positions I'm proud of though and thought id share.
Up ~8.5% on AGNC since August 8th at $33.30 Now at $36.16 Up ~8.6% on HIL since two entries: August 13th at $3.50 and September 12th at $4.02 Now at $4.27
Made a quick gain off of TTWO last week as well, but didn't feel safe holding it through the weekend.
HIL, which is a very low volume stock 57k average, broke and closed above its 200 day average today on higher than normal volume (100k). This stock has a ways to run and defined support at $4. Currently its my favorite stock where I see a potential for >15% return before September is over. Ironically enough after I had began a position in HIL I noticed on other charts that when the price lay below the 200ma and above the 50ma and gets squeezed up, It seems to go through a large period of growth. I looked for this and HIL was going through this exact thing and sure enough it popped today.
Example Chart
HIL Chart
Happy Trading!
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#16845283 - 09/14/12 08:37 AM (11 years, 4 months ago) |
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Gee, thanks Ben. You've created a cash machine. Unfortunately, this cash machine is only really accessible by those who already have money (nice job trying to help Main street ).
I thought yesterday was a good day, but I'm up even more this morning. Out of discipline, I have sold half of my JPM calls for a 460% gain. The WFC and XME call options I previously noted as "lottery tickets" are up around 400 and 700% respectively, although I was shaken out of those two positions before I could realize that profit. 
AAPL, a thing of beauty. My ANF calls are also up over 20% overnight, as the stock continues to expand out of a volatility squeeze and should probably test its 200 day moving average another ~8% higher than where the stock is currently trading, well before November expiration rolls around.
This is definitely the time to start tightening up stops or outright trimming positions if you have benefited from this monster move. If you are just getting involved, I would keep your position size on the small side, because there is bound to be a pullback that will offer you a lower risk buying opportunity next week.
It's a shame I wasn't even more aggressive this past week, but such is the nature of the market. You always wish you had more exposure than you do when things are good, and less than you have when things turn sour. I've watched MRO, WFC, CMA, CMG, MDR, KBH, and CBI all just take off before my eyes, but never got involved (with the exception of WFC but I fumbled that one by placing my stop just a few pennies too high and failing to revisit the position). Hopefully we get a little pull back next week, a pause to refresh, and then continue this ridiculous jaunt higher.
I truly shouldn't complain though, as I am happy that my portfolio hit an all time high yesterday, and another one this morning.
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Bambi
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#16846231 - 09/14/12 12:22 PM (11 years, 4 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: I truly shouldn't complain though, as I am happy that my portfolio hit an all time high yesterday, and another one this morning. 
Same boat for me. Im all giddy like a school gal hehe 
er... HIL killed me today for a small loss after such a kickass morning.
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"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben
Edited by Bambi (09/14/12 02:03 PM)
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ben_dover0802
shroom addict



Registered: 09/21/08
Posts: 648
Last seen: 7 years, 8 months
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Bambi]
#16853086 - 09/15/12 07:05 PM (11 years, 4 months ago) |
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Hey everyone, haven't posted in a while but I am you guys are doing well! I am too, I was pretty aggressive last week, my entire portfolio went up about 10%, talk about taking a walk on the wild side. I am usually pretty darn aggressive so I am still working my way up to my all time high. You are only young once though aye?
I took profits on most of my winners Friday but I still am holding small positions to re enter if they drop.
Positions I am holding small/looking to add:
LCC (US Airways) - Had a big pullback, it is pretty close to support so a good one to watch
DUG (2x oil gas short) - wish I didn't hold any last week but it looks like its close to a short term bottom, Ill probably add to this monday if it looks like we are having a pullback
ELLI - a small company that is just consolidating, no real reason to do much here. I bought it because of the trend
X (American Steel) This was one of my big money makers last week, I sold the majority of it because it had quite a run and looks like its ready for a pullback. However, I am looking to add on weakness
TEX (Terex) - Stock in a good uptrend but looks like its ready for a pullback.
F(Ford) - Another stock that was rewarding to own last week, I actually sold all of my ford but I would like to re enter after a small pullback
EA - Company that was in a downtrend for about a year but it already turned to corner and looks like it wants to continue gaining value
Lastly, MHR a small oil company that was good to me, if you look at a 2 year chart or so you can see the upside potential this stock has if the market rallies.
Actually, many of these stocks look like they have a large amount of upside if the larger market cooperates. F, TEX, EA, MHR
I am not in AAPl but also would not mind buying some in a small pullback, I can't see it going down more than up this holiday season (I would buy with a larger timeframe in mind - important to think about this before you buy)
Also the homebuilders are still outperforming, I have been in and out of these, making a small amount of money, but it would have been much more profitable to just buy and hold or execute proper risk management to not get completely out. Lesson hopefully learned
Best of luck to everyone.
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