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Offlinescatmanrav
Brainy Smurf


Registered: 05/08/04
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Re: Stock Update for July 25, 2012 - X, AKS, NFLX, AAPL [Re: demiu5]
    #16597011 - 07/27/12 12:09 AM (11 years, 6 months ago)

It gives me hope for my own stupid actions anyway! Sucks, but at least you know where you went wrong.

I've been playing with VHC and Apple, making a couple bucks, but IDNG took the wind out of me for a little bit..


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"life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake."

Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep)
Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use..
How I do grain (old still good tips)
Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber
Casing layer colonization and overlay


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Offlineqman
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Re: Stock Update for July 25, 2012 - X, AKS, NFLX, AAPL [Re: scatmanrav]
    #16599446 - 07/27/12 12:15 PM (11 years, 6 months ago)

Dow now over 13,000, stocks now rallying on anticipation on QE 3, as weak GDP data came in at 1.5%, the worst the news the better for stocks at this point.

The troubling part for the stock market going forward is the big drop in revenue for most of companies reporting this quarter, while profits came in good, the drop in revenue is going to hurt the bottom line at some point.

Facebook now hitting new lows, shares now down 33% percent from IP, this stock is still overvalued, watch out below.

Gold at $1620 and silver at $27oz, both appear to be breaking out of a long consolidation period, if so, the metals could have a strong up swing.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for July 25, 2012 - X, AKS, NFLX, AAPL [Re: qman]
    #16621528 - 07/31/12 10:43 AM (11 years, 5 months ago)

Well kiss my grits, karma came and did me a solid! I'm on vacation this week but notice that the $560/550 bull put spread on AAPL I initiated before I left is nearing max profit, as are my short puts on X and GNC.  Even the gut wrenching bull put spread on AKS is back to break even after being hugely in the red.  I had bad entries on most of these (the exception being the AAPL post earnings bull put spread), but at least I recognized that they had ultimately landed at a higher probability support zone both on their own individual charts as well as in the context of the broader market.  Though it was painful and against my general instinct of cutting losing positions, it did allow me to recoup the losses in this particular instance and even make some solid scratch. Sometimes you need to know when it's appropriate to bend your own rules. It won't always work, but risk runs both ways!


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··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


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OfflineHalluciNate
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #16622527 - 07/31/12 01:43 PM (11 years, 5 months ago)

:nothingtoadd:


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We are here to assist, to teach you to evolve as we go through this process together. We give our own version of things only to bring you to a higher consciousness. No matter what situation you find yourself in, it is the power of your thoughts that got you there. It is also the impeccable belief that thought creates that will transform your experience and the planetary existence.




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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: HalluciNate]
    #16751368 - 08/28/12 10:13 PM (11 years, 5 months ago)

Hi!

I'm just getting started back in the market. Traded a little between 2005-2007, but am starting around to following it again.


There is a little bit of hype about the fed's comments on friday, but i think there won't be any comments about further quantitative easing. A little bit of gold might sell off, I want to bet 2%. I'm thinking the good times are gunna roll in the stock market after Labour Day. Romney is gunna win, he'll slash programs and cut the deficit and the stock market will rally to fuck.

All the global economic news is so bad right now, there isn't much more downside. China is finally slowing down, but they've been cooking their books forever. Homebuilders are coming back around, the S&P is up 16% this year. Good times ahead.

I just gotta work on getting some capital going back into my trading account. I'll be lucky if I can get a k in before xmas.


After


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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


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Offlineqman
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #16753026 - 08/29/12 08:39 AM (11 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

evilnick said:
Hi!

I'm just getting started back in the market. Traded a little between 2005-2007, but am starting around to following it again.


There is a little bit of hype about the fed's comments on friday, but i think there won't be any comments about further quantitative easing. A little bit of gold might sell off, I want to bet 2%. I'm thinking the good times are gunna roll in the stock market after Labour Day. Romney is gunna win, he'll slash programs and cut the deficit and the stock market will rally to fuck.

All the global economic news is so bad right now, there isn't much more downside. China is finally slowing down, but they've been cooking their books forever. Homebuilders are coming back around, the S&P is up 16% this year. Good times ahead.

I just gotta work on getting some capital going back into my trading account. I'll be lucky if I can get a k in before xmas.


After





Even if Romney wins, he will have very little affect on the deficit, the problem is the US and Europe are in a debt death spiral, here is why.

1. We have such deflationary forces that we need to have an extra $1.5 in deficits just to keep GDP from being in the severe negative territory, take away the extra stimulus, we enter deeper recession just like many countries in the Euro zone did after they attempted fiscal discipline.

2. There is no real chance that tax revenues will increase, in fact cutting deficits will also cause lower tax receipts from lower GDP.

3. We are now in a global recession as Europe enters depression, China growth comes to a halt, Japan exports now down -25%, and Brazil,India, and now Australia all enter deep recession, the US is dependent on the rest of the globe for growth, this situation is not good.

The Fed may not announce QE in a few weeks, but it is coming as some point, there is no choice. There are not real buyers in the bond market. In fact, China just announced at $1.2 trillion domestic stimulus program, Japan is talking the same, the Euro zone will have to announced a massive program just to keep the Euro alive a little longer, and Fed will also keep pace will it's own QE program.


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InvisibleGilgamesh18
Herbivore Man

Registered: 03/01/12
Posts: 11,671
Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: qman]
    #16753483 - 08/29/12 10:26 AM (11 years, 4 months ago)

Qman in your opinion what would be the best course of action for dealing with this potential economic meltdown?


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Offlineqman
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Gilgamesh18]
    #16753668 - 08/29/12 11:08 AM (11 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Gilgamesh18 said:
Qman in your opinion what would be the best course of action for dealing with this potential economic meltdown?




I have been(for many years)and remain a gold and silver investor. The final outcome will be a massive devaluation of currency, there are not many winners in that type of environment, maybe one could throw in oil as well.

We are living in a modern day ponzi scam with fiat money, borrowing .43 for every dollar we spend is not sustainable. California is our Greece, last mouth they borrowed .65 cents for every dollar they spent, that is getting close to the end game, yet no financial media coverage.

I myself like the gold and silver miners and resource stocks, many in the junior sector have the reserves in the ground. The manipulators have brought these share prices down to silly levels, despite decent gold and silver prices. At some point, the value of the gold and silver in the ground will be revealed, until then I don't mind paying $10-20oz for the resource.

There are so many tough questions going forward in the coming weeks and months, will Germany agree to throw good money after bad to bail out the loser economies in Europe? Some figures say over 3.5 trillion will be needed, if they don't the Euro zone falls apart. Who will bail out states like California down the road when their bond markets start puking up the junk paper?  The Fed is my guess, talk about a print fest.

No matter where we look, the only tool the policy makers have is QE, failure to do so will result in total meltdown mode, just wait until the inflation comes as a result, that is when the real "fun" starts.


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InvisibleGilgamesh18
Herbivore Man

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: qman]
    #16753685 - 08/29/12 11:12 AM (11 years, 4 months ago)

So potentially if I sunk say a grand into silver that could potentially become very valuable in the coming years.


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Offlineqman
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Gilgamesh18]
    #16753780 - 08/29/12 11:36 AM (11 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Gilgamesh18 said:
So potentially if I sunk say a grand into silver that could potentially become very valuable in the coming years.




I have high hopes for silver going forward, just look at the fundamentals of the supply story.

Global silver production is around 700-800 million ozs per year, add another 200 million ozs of scrap just for conservative estimates, it's much lower in reality, so we are talking about a 1 billion oz market per year, or a $30 billion market.

Industrial use takes about 2/3 of global production off the market, which means that there is only about 260 million ozs for investment, and at $30 per oz, we are talking about only $7.8 billion of silver available for investment for the whole world.

What happens if just one tenth of 1% of the trillions of worthless fiat paper decides to seek the safety of silver "real money" at some point? This market of available silver is so small, that a small flow of money into this market will cause huge price movements higher in the future.

Only a small group of investors think printing trillions of fiat paper is a problem, just wait until the rest of the world wakes up to the fact that this paper is pure junk, the potential tidal wave of money going into gold and silver will be a sight to be seen IMHO.

Also, silver has been in correction mode for over 15-16 months, topping out at around $49 oz in May of 2011, it looks like after bottoming out at around $26 a few weeks ago, silver is starting it's new leg higher, at 30oz it's a strong buy today!


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InvisibleGilgamesh18
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: qman]
    #16753821 - 08/29/12 11:48 AM (11 years, 4 months ago)

Hmm well im super tempted to go out and get some its either the silver or a mutual fund that I have been slowly adding to since the beginning of 2012 I will have to do some more research.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Gilgamesh18]
    #16754163 - 08/29/12 01:03 PM (11 years, 4 months ago)

qman raises valid points and having at least some portion of your asset base in liquid tangible assets such as gold and silver is important.

If it's stocks you're after, with AAPL's recent victory over Samsung in the US Court, I would definitely be accumulating shares of this stock.  On a valuation basis, given the company's market share and growth rate, and now given that competitors will have a more difficult time (at least in the near term) bringing new products to market that threaten Apple's dominance due to the clarification of the strength of AAPL's patent portfolio, including any royalties that will have to be paid out retroactively and moving forward, I think AAPL has plenty of room to keep up its relentless rise.


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··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


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InvisibleGilgamesh18
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #16754450 - 08/29/12 01:56 PM (11 years, 4 months ago)

Interesting you brought up Apple Geokills I would personally not be surprised if it doesn't become the first company to be worth 1 trillion dollars.


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Gilgamesh18]
    #16757868 - 08/30/12 01:50 AM (11 years, 4 months ago)

so ive been watching that CBIS company that some guy recommended earlier in one of these threads. I know the whole betting on penny stocks is a big risk and all that, but the trend seems to be at its low point for this organization. Once they reach 1 penny I will put a few hundred into it and forget about it.

If the company ever comes up to .25 cents like it has before ill sell. maybe it will dump and ill lose out, but whatever. whats $500 in the longrun for a little gamble


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
    #16764681 - 08/31/12 09:07 AM (11 years, 4 months ago)

Ehh, I'd spend that $500 on a call option for AAPL, personally.

I'm doing a little bit of buying in the metals.  Largely picking up shares in the XME (SPDR S&P Metals ETF), though playing some momentum on X for an intraday flip.  Both are bouncing off of their lower bollinger bands, with XME right around its 50 day moving average.  This is also a higher high relative to the base that has been forming in XME over the past three months.  In addition to owning common stock, I am also short puts.  The common stock position will be stopped out if XME falls below $40, the puts are October $38's, which would have me purchasing the shares at $36.90 if exercised, below the ETF's three year (i.e. all time) low.  If XME stays above $38, I keep the $110 in premium per contract sold.


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··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #16767575 - 08/31/12 06:51 PM (11 years, 4 months ago)

qman, im right with you on just about everything you said. The europe situation, japan, china, none are doing very well and just as usa can't prosper without the world buying, china is in the same boat only worse. They are dependent on exports like a drunk is on the next bottle of booze.

I don't see any deflationary forces at work right now unless you count the depressed labor market. That pushes down wages but overall prices are going up. The rich get richer and the poor get kids. Inflationary forces on the other hand, are seen everywhere though they have not done their dirtiest yet. That is scary because since we can't rely on taxes to bail us out, we can't rely on imports to save the day, our own economy is going down the tubes so qe becomes the default action. When you have little to no other options, the act of last resort becomes the first resort and only way out.

I've been saying this for years, as you have. Gold, silver, oil, and other tangibles are going to keep value. Look for the next big spike to come in the form of food prices. You think they have gone up but you aint seen nothin' yet. Add to that the fact a stupid political decision made alcohol mandadory as fuel and we are putting our food in the tank. Oil prices remain high, they don't care if we go to 100% alky, it just means food will be too expensive to eat any more. Oil consumption has declined in this country while oil has shot up. Gasahol is the love child of crooked politics and stupid politicians.

It doesn't matter who wins the election, the smartest guy in the world couldn't get us out of this without a lot of pain. A whole lot. Unfortunately we have had the opposite of smart decision making which got us where we are now.

I now own 6 properties one of which i will probably sell this year and the rest will be cash cows. Inflation just means rent goes up along with everything else. I'm cash poor and land rich.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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Invisibleohmatic
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Stonehenge]
    #16786838 - 09/04/12 01:15 PM (11 years, 4 months ago)

u guys think facebook will get pumped once it reached a certain low level ?


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Offlineqman
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ohmatic]
    #16788383 - 09/04/12 05:56 PM (11 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

ohmatic said:
u guys think facebook will get pumped once it reached a certain low level ?




Facebook continues to get "dumped" and will continue. FB was a scam from the very start, Morgan Stanley pumped this junk at a $100 billion market cap, that is massive. Guess who started shorting the stock after it's IPO, you guessed it, Morgan Stanley did.

Today at $17 per share, this company still has a $38 billion market cap, and FB is still extremely overvalued on every evaluation metric. I see FB going down to maybe the $5 range next year.

You know who got scammed on this stock, every retail investor whos mutual fund and index manager bought into this junk, and of coarse the fools who loaded the boat on the stock. Wall Street just could not resist this scam, it was too easy, everyone loves using FB, but nobody understood if the company could make money.


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Invisibleohmatic
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: qman]
    #16790830 - 09/05/12 01:43 AM (11 years, 4 months ago)

hmmm interesting thought on the shorting yeah i can understand how a lot of money was made this way.


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:penis: MONOTUB tek :sun: HEATBOMB tek :penis:

RIP #cultivation! ....can't associate? well FUCK U !


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OfflineYrat
Hello

Registered: 11/08/07
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ohmatic]
    #16793423 - 09/05/12 04:26 PM (11 years, 4 months ago)

my portfolio is up 24% in the last 2 months, i will start thinking about locking in profits and setting up some stop losses.

of course, this comes follows an approximate 30% loss over the previous 5 months :mad:

at least i know what i'm doing now... or so i think...


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"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
Strike The Root


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