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InvisibleSheikCorp
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Re: Stock Update for March 21, 2012 - V, GS, GOOG, NFLX [Re: ohmatic]
    #16009335 - 03/28/12 03:00 PM (11 years, 9 months ago)

I thought that dividing the stock, allows you to buy more shares for cheaper and allows for more growth?


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Re: Stock Update for March 21, 2012 - V, GS, GOOG, NFLX [Re: SheikCorp]
    #16011999 - 03/29/12 02:56 AM (11 years, 9 months ago)

my question is about someone who plans to sell it sometime soon, not to buy any new shares.


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Re: Stock Update for March 21, 2012 - V, GS, GOOG, NFLX [Re: ohmatic]
    #16012599 - 03/29/12 08:30 AM (11 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

ohmatic said:
again with apple, some people mubled something about the stock being divided possibly and such ..

this would set a drastic end to it's continuous rise eh ..

if one got into it around 500$ per share i guess around now would be a good time to get out ?





Stocks getting divided have nothing to do with it's future performance, it just makes it easier to trade.

Many people think Apple is still not expensive on a price earnings basis (PE), despite its high stock price.

My concern with a company like Apple is that it must come up consistently with new innovation, failure to do so is big trouble. Some people think Apple is perfect and will always come up with the new best technology, but the history of technology companies proves them to be wrong.

Could Apple stock hit $1000, yes for sure, but at the same time the stock has had a great run in the short term, and many investors would look for any excuse to take some profits off the table.


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Re: Stock Update for March 21, 2012 - V, GS, GOOG, NFLX [Re: qman]
    #16064353 - 04/09/12 08:28 AM (11 years, 9 months ago)

What to do amidst a pullback in the market...  Currently it appears that the market is in the process of pulling back from this long uptrend. Now I am definitely a novice investor that finds himself overexposed during this past week or so.
I hold long positions in ARR, ATVI, PGH, and VE with little intent to sell, but I also have positions in MHO, MIPS, MMM, and TTWO where I am not so clear on my plan.

MHO is volatile, but seems to belong above the $12 mark and doesn't always follow the market so I am less inclined to get out of this as it appears to be becoming oversold.
Thus far, MIPS has been nothing but a loser for me, but alas, I still own it and do not know when to just drop it.
MMM seems like a good stock, but if the market goes further down, so will this stock.
TTWO has little reason to go up until the launch of Bioshock Infinite, which is still quite a ways a way.

So basically, My question is, whats the best way to identify a stock that you should get out of and how can you ensure you follow through?

Also, on a side note: What outlook do yall see for the short term future of the market?


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for April 9, 2012 - Market [Re: Bambi]
    #16064476 - 04/09/12 09:16 AM (11 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

So basically, My question is, whats the best way to identify a stock that you should get out of and how can you ensure you follow through?




Plan your trade, and trade your plan.  Part of planning your trade indicates setting a stop loss level, your "I'm wrong" level.  You should always know -- before you even take the stock -- how much your maximum loss will be, because you will have identified various support levels and will set your sell stops accordingly.  If you don't do that, you're left in the position you are in now... holding stocks that are starting to lose you money, and worrying about when or even IF you should sell them.  That's an undisciplined way of managing your money, which leads to rash and emotional decision making, and in this game, decisions driven by emotion are very dangerous.  While you can always get lucky, you will not be able to consistently prevent yourself from taking major losses, which is really the name of this game.  If you can control losses and stay involved, the upside will take care of itself.  And make no mistake, you WILL take losses, that's also just part of the game, so get used to it and be OK with it.

You must also make a habit of evaluating all of your positions within the context of the broader market as well as specific sectors.  When we saw the S&P begin to struggle around 1415 - 1420 over the past couple of weeks, especially after the solid run that we have seen since last October, it is a yellow flag that indicates you should begin tightening up your stops, hedging, or simply reducing your exposure outright.  As for the future outlook, the prevailing action of the past week is definitely a pretty big chink in the armor of the market.  The jobs number, specifically the number of job seekers who have "left the workforce" aka given up on looking for a job (there are now almost 89 million of them!), indicates continued underlying weakness in the economy.  However, this could also give market players hope that Ben Bernanke will come riding to the rescue with some variation of additional quantitative easing, despite the fact that he specifically noted last week that QE3 was essentially off the table.  If more easing does present itself, that could very well keep the market propped up. We just don't know, which is why you need to define your maximum losses before you take any trade, and adhere to those levels.

I have been using this morning's action to buy back some of my short puts on the VXX (for a profit, finally!), because I am wary that the VXX simply doesn't act as intended, as indicated in this post I made in another thread over the weekend.  I did take a quick bounce trade on RIG up to its 200 day moving average this morning for a small gain, and closed out my bull put spread in GS for a loss by buying back my short $120 puts first, and then waiting for a little additional weakness to sell my $115 long puts in efforts to recoup a bit of the loss.

Frankly, the action this morning is not very game-able.  Market internals (advancers vs decliners, up vs down volume, ticks, sector list) are all pointing negative, however the futures and the market in general has not sold off much since the open.  This is a rather strange divergence, and makes it difficult to discern short term direction.  That is why I am simply peeling back exposure, as I don't need to fuss around with a choppy market in hopes that I get it right.  I'd rather just take stuff off the table (on the long and short side), and sit back until there is more clarity offered and I can trade with greater confidence.  The close will be an important tell.  If we are setting up to close below the opening 15 minute range on the S&P, you should definitely reduce long side exposure.  If we close above the opening 15 minute high on the S&P, it's a little safer to hold onto positions overnight, because the market has been down for four days in a row now, which often tends to lead to at least a short term bounce.  Fact of the matter is, I have little conviction either way and intend to, for the most part, sit on my hands with the exception of some very quick flips.

Good luck.  Just so you know how I am positioned at the moment (though this can change very quickly), I am roughly 70% in cash, with 20% in stocks that yield an average of 11.65% based on my own individual cost basis (CTL, AGNC, NLY, BIP, PSEC -- stocks that I hold strictly as a way to park my money for yield), meaning that only 10% of my portfolio is in active trading positions... a very small amount indeed and indicative of the level of conviction I have in this market.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for April 9, 2012 - Market [Re: geokills]
    #16069491 - 04/10/12 10:17 AM (11 years, 9 months ago)

Glad I got out of the way of this blood bath... starting to lick my chops though.

Covered my remaining short VXX puts for a small profit (to hell with that trade).
Buying some SPY right here at $136.50, stop below $136.19.
Edit: Damn, got pickpocketed on that SPY! :foreheadslap:  Oh well, callin' it a day.


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Edited by geokills (04/10/12 11:23 AM)


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OfflineBambi
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Re: Stock Update for April 9, 2012 - Market [Re: geokills]
    #16080428 - 04/12/12 01:31 PM (11 years, 9 months ago)

Thanks for the info geo, I LOVE reading what youve got to say, just makes me feel like I've got a grip on whats going on after your stock updates.

I had set some stops that would have cleared me out of some positions with another negative day, but lucky me and yesterday was up because I wanted to drop MIPS the most and today it rose over 25 percent off of rumors that Goldman Sachs has been hired to find possible buyers which finally brings me into the green for the stock so I can place appropriate stops to maintain profits while taking advantage of the rumor.

As far as the market as a whole, ALCOA's earnings seem to be the start of a market turn around as long as GOOGLE can report positive earnings to keep the market up. I gotta admit, when my portfolio outperforms the market like today, I just feel like a thousand bucks :awesome: Such a good day being up about 3% going into the final half hour, even with my larger positions being stagnant on the day (TTWO which appears to be downtrending and ARR which just had the EX dividend day).

So since this is my first time dealing with rumors that have such large implications, what has your experience been with these situations?


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for April 9, 2012 - Market [Re: Bambi]
    #16084500 - 04/13/12 11:00 AM (11 years, 9 months ago)

If I get a 25% return overnight based on rumor, I will usually sell the stock, or at least take out my cost basis.  The rumor mill turns frequently and often disappoints, is all I'm saying, and a 25% overnight gain is nothing to sneeze at.  Smoke 'em while you got 'em!

Market's pretty ugly today, giving up much of yesterdays gain but seeming able to hold 1370 on the S&P.  1370 was resistance earlier in the year, and could potentially serve as support now that the 50 day moving average has come up to meet it.  However, today's action is not encouraging, and if we close below 1370, I will be very cautious with any long positions and indeed start to press the short side, as such a break would seem to indicate that we are putting in a lower high this week on the S&P, which would help confirm that the path of least resistance is now to the downside.

Frankly, we're not in a good spot to game the market, since we are hovering right around this key level and heading into the weekend.  Therefore, I'm not really doing much today, though I did take some small positions in YOKU and AAP, and am watching V again.  The later two appear to be poised to break out of a volatility squeeze to the upside, it is encouraging that they are up on an otherwise down day.  Nevertheless, with the generally ambiguous to negative market we have seen this week, I'm not taking out tremendous bets.

Good luck.


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Stock Update for April 16, 2012 - Market [Re: geokills]
    #16096687 - 04/16/12 08:04 AM (11 years, 9 months ago)

Really nasty start to the week.  I closed all of my trading positions on the pop this morning as soon as I noticed all the leadership stocks getting crushed (GOOG, AAPL, LNKD, CRM, PCLN), and no follow through on the banks.  Market is not acting healthy, and there is now a considerable amount of overhead resistance.  With the S&P below its 50 day moving average and the VIX above its 50 day moving average, the dynamic looks to be switching from buying dips, to selling the rips, as the VIX rising from lows indicates increasing fear and the S&P breaking its 50 day will result in quicker trigger fingers on the exits.  Spain auctions 2 and 10 year bonds this Thursday, the last auction didn't go too well and it impacted our markets, so Thursday could be pivotal.  Good week to take a vacation?  Sounds good to me!  Maybe the ol' "sell in May and go away" tendency is playing out a little earlier this year.


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Re: Stock Update for April 16, 2012 - Market [Re: geokills]
    #16159764 - 04/30/12 10:54 AM (11 years, 8 months ago)

After such a strong market last week, but entering this week with bleak news from Europe and the US both. Geo, what does your outlook of the next few days hold?

Personally I dont see much of a reason for the market to be up at all. Besides earnings, I dont imagine there will be much good news in the headlines. Although if the S&P can hold support around the 1388 mark there might be a brighter end to this week or beginning of the next.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for April 16, 2012 - Market [Re: Bambi]
    #16160768 - 04/30/12 02:49 PM (11 years, 8 months ago)

I do not have a lot of conviction right here.  Hence, I am not doing much of anything and instead am enjoying time away from the market.  We had such a strong first quarter, that I just don't think money managers are going to be in a big hurry to go bidding up the market with new buy orders, especially since seasonally there is a tendency to "sell in May and go away".  Thus, I really only feel like buying near the bottom of the current consolidation range (around 1360 - 1375 on the S&P), where I can place a tight stop, or after we see a break through 1422.

Some of the stocks that I am watching include AAPL, hoping for a little more consolidation in order to allow some of the implied volatility to bleed out so the options become cheaper (I will however initiate some bull put spreads if it continues to tank during the balance of this week), AAP @ $88-90, ALXN @ $89, CTRP @ $21 and X on a break above $29.  Not saying I'm going to buy all of these, but they have my attention because most of them have set up a nice base for support, provided there isn't major market weakness.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for May 2, 2012 - X, AXLN, AAPL [Re: geokills]
    #16170495 - 05/02/12 10:50 AM (11 years, 8 months ago)

I am still cautious on the market, but the consolidation aka "bull flag" on the S&P that has formed from last Friday through today at least gives me a basis for support.  Thus, I have started building positions in X and ALXN, and taking a conservatively bullish approach on AAPL.

X has been consolidating around its 200 and 50 day moving averages, and had a nice close above them yesterday.  Aggregate market weakness seems to be pulling the stock back to that magnet for the time being, but so long as X does not close appreciably below its 50 day moving average, I think it is poised to begin a move higher.

ALXN is a relatively slow and steady mover, and has been consolidating for the past six or seven weeks between $86 - $95.  This has allowed the 50 day moving average to catch up to price and the bollinger bands to narrow.  The longer term uptrend is well defined, so barring unusual events, the stock should begin bouncing here, at least to test the $100 level.

I have received a $175 per contract credit on a AAPL bull put spread, whereby I am selling the May $575 put and buying the May $570 put as insurance.  If AAPL is at $573.25 on May 18th, I will break even.  Above that price, I will be profitable, up to a maximum of $175 per spread if AAPL is above $575.  My maximum loss is $325 per spread if AAPL is at or below $570 on the 18th.  I have initiated 5 spreads, which gives me a maximum reward of $975 and a maximum loss of $1625.  If AAPL ultimately falls below $575, I will unwind the spread by buying to cover my short $575 puts and letting the long $570 puts ride, making it unlikely that I would suffer the full $1600 loss.


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Re: Stock Update for May 2, 2012 - X, AXLN, AAPL [Re: geokills]
    #16174523 - 05/02/12 11:13 PM (11 years, 8 months ago)

Here are the charts for the three stocks I added today.



X is showing a nice symmetrical triangle pattern right where all the moving averages are
converging while flattening out.  This indicates a pretty strong base being formed,
which should lead to a nice move the upside at some point in the future.  It may not be
this week, but if the market cooperates, I believe the odds are in favor of this happening. 
Of course, a closing break below the bottom red line of the triangle would necessitate this
trade being put on hold.





AAPL is still cheap on a fundamental valuation basis, reported blow out earnings, and is
doing some churning after a tremendous move over the past several months.  While I
think it can still slink around here for a few more weeks, I'm dipping my toe in the water
with a bull put spread, as described in the above post.





Here you can see ALXN grinding around at a high base, allowing the 50 day moving
average to catch up.  The support and resistance levels are clear, and it seems logical
that the stock will test the psychologically significant $100 level soon.


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Stock Update for May 3, 2012 - X, AXLN, AAPL [Re: geokills]
    #16176327 - 05/03/12 11:53 AM (11 years, 8 months ago)

Market is weakening today, breaking below the short term bull flag I noted on the S&P a day or two ago.  I am also weary of the jobs number coming out tomorrow, which is likely to move the market one way or the other.  Maybe it's up, maybe it's down, but I have no edge and don't want to fret over unnecessary exposure.  As I have also noted of late, the fact that money managers had such a successful first quarter, makes me believe they will not be in any hurry to unleash enough new buying power to push the market above the highs on the S&P set one month ago.

I have as a result covered the short leg of my AAPL bull put spread, while keeping the long leg (the May $570 put) on a tight leash with a trailing sell stop, which has since been triggered and I am no longer involved with AAPL right now.  There's just too much congestion here and the spread is too close to the current price to let it run comfortably.  If we see some reactionary weakness to the jobs numbers tomorrow, I may initiate a new bull put spread on AAPL, though I will use the $550/$540 puts instead, since that is a significantly stronger support level that corresponds with the pre-earnings low as well as an uptrending support line that goes back to November 2011.

I have also been stopped out of my common stock position with X today, though I did sell a handful of June $25 puts for an $0.80 per share credit.  This would result in me owning X for $24.20 if X is below $25 at the time of June expiration.  It's a more conservative strategy to be bullish on the stock, since I'll either own it at a much lower price, or if I don't get the shares put to me, I still keep the $80 of premium per contract sold so long as X is above $25 at expiration.

The ALXN trade is not nearly as volatile, and still well above its 50 day moving average, so I will keep that one on.  It is also small enough that even if it does dip below its 50 day and hit my stop that presently sits around $87, it will not cause me any emotional panic.


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Re: Stock Update for May 3, 2012 - X, AXLN, AAPL [Re: geokills]
    #16189334 - 05/06/12 07:18 AM (11 years, 8 months ago)

Hey Geo, hope you've had a profitable couple months.  I am about where I was three months ago due to getting burned by a single stock dropping 40% in 1 day :/

Here we are in a choppy market again, but I am pretty long going into monday due to us being at the bottom of a small trading range.  The stocks I am involved with are:

Short:
GMCR (I was hoping for your input on this because I opened the position after the stock got crushed, but I can see this dropping more as I don't see a support level)


Long:
LNG - liquified natural gas company in an uptrend. I have been dealing with this stock for a while, bought it higher than where it is now but just holding - put a stop just below the 50 dma.

RENN - facebook - china edition. just got in yesterday as it looks to be going on a phase 3 volitility expansion and with fb coming out soon hopefully it'll run.

AGNC - dividend stock I have been holding since you mentooned it back in march I believe, pretty sure its been one of my best performers :cheers:

Lastly, SKH. Tiny healthcare stock.  Only bought it because of the trend and where it was on friday, put a tight stop on it and that's that.


Best wishes


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for May 3, 2012 - X, AXLN, AAPL [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #16194456 - 05/07/12 11:44 AM (11 years, 8 months ago)

Yo ben_d, my man.  I would ditch GMCR, or at least place a stop at $24.40 (the low of the post-earnings selloff).  They are losing important patent protection in the near future and one of sector peers (I forget who) made a statement last week that sales of a product very related to GMCR's bread and butter K-Cups have been declining.  The stock took such a hit that there is no doubt a lot of overhead resistance, and since the stock has not mounted any bounce since, I don't expect to see one, since the fundamental story is also looking pretty bleak.

LNG, seems like a reasonable trade.  Don't know much about the company, but I see the support you have identified and that thesis in and of itself is sound.  I see the stock did dip below its 50 day this morning but has bounced back.  I would place your stop just below $16, though on a longer term weekly chart, it looks like longer term support will come in between $12-$14.

RENN, the chart looks constructive, though the 200 day EMA proved to be formidable resistance this morning.  This is one I would prefer to buy on a tag of its 50 day, or a break above its 200 day.  Right now it's in congestion, and with the Facebook IPO set to start trading later this month, I think money may be likely to come out of RENN and go into Facebook.  For now, I feel like RENN has essentially been a proxy for Facebook investors.

AGNC - Glad you got it, it's been solid.  I would love the opportunity to buy more at $29 or below.  Otherwise, just hold it and let those dividends keep rollin' on in.

SKH, I got burned trying to trade this one a few times.  In retrospect, I would have been better off just holding it and forgetting about it.  So long as it stays above its 200 day EMA, it's an OK hold.  If you want to keep it on a tighter leash, the post earnings low of $7 is an appropriate place to put your stop as well.  In fact, I just initiated a small position, since the past three days (in the wake of earnings), show a lot of bottoming tails probing below the stock's 50 day moving average, but always bouncing back to close above the 50 day.  That indicates a level of underlying demand high enough to make me comfortable taking some stock right here, right now.

In addition to those short puts on X I sold last week, I bought a handful of common shares this morning when I noticed the stock basing intraday, in conjunction with having moved below its 2nd standard deviation bollinger band on the daily chart.  It has been bouncing ever since and is now consolidating around $27.  I took half of the position off, but am letting the remaining half ride, since this thing has been coiling around its 200 day moving average for a couple of months now and so long as we don't go to hell in a hand basket, I expect that this one will start moving higher over the longer term.

Still, in aggregate, I am only minimally involved.  I will be traveling out of state in a week and just generally am focusing more on other things.  I do agree however, that short term, this is a good time to put some money to work.  I expect the S&P will continue to retrace last weeks downside move, probably up to 1390-1400 without too much trouble, though active investors should watch the 1386 level, as a rejection there would be ominous.  On the downside, I have S&P support levels at 1358 and 1340.


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Re: Stock Update for May 3, 2012 - X, AXLN, AAPL [Re: geokills]
    #16195067 - 05/07/12 02:18 PM (11 years, 8 months ago)

Bad bad news in europe. Sarkovsky out in france, one of the movers of the austerity policy replaced by a much more liberal leader promising fewer cutbacks. Greece is refusing to go along with the measures and is likely to default, the usual rumblings in italy, portugal, etc. The market has not liked this or the weak jobs report or the weak overall economic picture. The current occupant is doing all he can to paint a rosy picture but ugly reality is coming through. When i see the market drop i'm happy because it means oil drops which means i pay less at the pump.

The only bad thing is 2 of my tenants have stalled in paying rent this month but promise to catch up soon. One was out of a job but back to working now, the other is just stalling. Both will pay a late fee.


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Re: Stock Update for May 3, 2012 - X, AXLN, AAPL [Re: geokills]
    #16196503 - 05/07/12 07:15 PM (11 years, 8 months ago)

Cool man, where are you off to?
I just finished classes (for good) and am planning to do as much traveling as possible in the coming couple months before its time to work for the man for a while. 

and btw, I am actually short GMCR which in hindsight was the right move at least so far, I agree that the companies future vs stock price isn't looking too rosy. 

Still holding all previously mentioned positions going into tomorrow.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for May 3, 2012 - X, AXLN, AAPL [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #16199017 - 05/08/12 09:12 AM (11 years, 8 months ago)

Ah, short GMCR, that makes more sense.  I should read more carefully.  I would also be interested in shorting it, though volume looks to be tapering off today quite a bit and a lot of selling has been done... I would prefer to initiate a short at a higher level, perhaps somewhere between $26.50-$28.

I had two stop levels on my X common yesterday, both of which were hit by the close (the second one just barely).  Good thing though, as the stock is getting hit pretty viciously today.  I am watching for stabilization as we are still within a six month consolidation range/basing pattern, but the stock is just barely hanging in there.  At this rate, my short June $25 puts will be in the money before too long, which is a bit of a bummer, but nothing I can't live with or I wouldn't have opened the trade to begin with.  In retrospect, I should have been more cautious after seeing X break down from its symmetrical triangle pattern on the 4th.  I was even thinking about going short, but the relatively wide bollinger bands and the lows from the 24th of April I thought would hold.  I was wrong about that.

SKH missed my stop this morning by 1 cent.  I may yet get taken out, but it's a small size position anyway, so I'm not sweating it.

So far today, we are in the process of breaking a primary support trend line on the S&P that goes all the way back to the October 2011 closing lows.  If we close near the lows of the day, 1340 would appear to be the next logical level of support, and if that doesn't hold, I would look for a test of 1315 and even 1285 is in play, which will be around the S&P's 200 day moving average.

Been keeping my eye on GOOG, it's been hanging in there like a champ.  Tempted to take a piece, but weary of the overall market's weakness with nearly 14 to 1 negative breadth on the NYSE, 7.5 to 1 on the NASD, the advance/decline line down to almost negative 2000 and the NYSE tick distribution quite negative so far all day, I think I will just wait and watch until those internals improve as the path of least resistance is most certainly down at this point in time.

On the upside, this is some pretty significant selling that should help to wash out quite a few longs and pave the way for some sort of bounce.  Even so, I wouldn't be very aggressive, as we have now printed a lower high on the S&P.  If you want to consider this lower high an indication of a head and shoulders topping pattern (left shoulder from 2/29, head from 4/2, right shoulder from 5/1 and the neckline at around 1360ish), the downside target would be somewhere around 1305 - 1315, pretty much in line with the support levels I noted above.


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Re: Stock Update for May 3, 2012 - X, AXLN, AAPL [Re: geokills]
    #16234942 - 05/15/12 12:45 PM (11 years, 8 months ago)

>the path of least resistance is most certainly down at this point in time.

Very true and my prediction that the europe crisis would boil over has begun to come true as well. I know its bad for the economy but i love the lower gas prices.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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