Home | Community | Message Board

Cannabis Seeds - Original Sensible Seeds
This site includes paid links. Please support our sponsors.


Welcome to the Shroomery Message Board! You are experiencing a small sample of what the site has to offer. Please login or register to post messages and view our exclusive members-only content. You'll gain access to additional forums, file attachments, board customizations, encrypted private messages, and much more!

Shop: Kraken Kratom Red Vein Kratom   Unfolding Nature Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order   PhytoExtractum Buy Bali Kratom Powder, Maeng Da Thai Kratom Leaf Powder

Jump to first unread post Pages: < First | < Back | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | Next > | Last >
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 5 hours, 6 minutes
The Anatomy of a Volatility Squeeze that breaks out to All Time Highs [Re: Stonehenge]
    #15853446 - 02/23/12 04:40 PM (11 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

Stonehenge said:

Geo, i thought an all time high would be a bad time to buy? Seems like there would be profit takers.




The only honest answer I can give you is, it depends.

One must understand that when a stock is at an all time high, everyone who has bought the stock is a winner.  Therefore, there is a lack of the "I want my money back" dynamic that produces overhead resistance on stocks that have gone down, thus causing people pain, and putting them in the mindset that "well, if the stock just gets a little bit higher, or I can sell it for breakeven, that's what I plan to do."  A stock at an all time high has no overhead resistance whatsoever, and this is why it is generally a good idea to own these stocks.  We all know the saying "buy low, sell high", but there is another saying that is just as good for those who understand how to manage their risk: "buy high, and sell even higher."

With respect to ROST, I actually closed the trade down today for flat, when the stock moved below its opening rotational low (the first 15 minute low).  I did this for a couple of reasons.  #1, the stock was not behaving the way I expected.  The S&P was moving higher throughout the day, but ROST was moving lower, exhibiting relative weakness.  This isn't to say that the stock isn't going to continue its volatility expansion to the upside, but I didn't want to take a loss on this trade, so I decided to shut it down and simply reset my alerts so that if ROST moves back above $53.28 (today's high) or hits $50.89 (the bottom of the volatility squeeze), I can take a second look at it and if the market is looking supportive, I will not hesitate to jump right back in.  In the meanwhile, yesterday's breakout may have been a fakeout, given that it closed in the middle of its daily range, and almost back within the parameters of the volatility squeeze (below the upper bollinger band) that had been in place since 2/2/12.  However, the fact that ROST didn't fall too much and volume was lighter than yesterday, shows that the selling pressure was not aggressive, even though it is a sign that upward momentum was not as strong as I had been hoping for, and that's reason enough for me to focus my energy on other trades that were working for me like IBM, GLD and SLV.  As I will get into in the next paragraph, the fact that ROST is so extended above its 200 day moving average is another factor that contributed to my decision to shut down the trade today.

Now, without going to go into extreme detail, generally speaking, a stock that has formed a high base by trading sideways in a tight range (i.e. a volatility squeeze), and has been doing so long enough for its key moving averages such as the 50 day and/or 200 day to "catch up" to the current price, is a high probability setup for another leg higher, IF and WHEN it breaks out above the volatility squeeze by closing above the upper bollinger band on higher than average volume.  On the other hand, if a stock has been ramping for quite a while, is extended well above its key moving averages, and the bollinger bands are wide (greater than an 8% difference between the top band and bottom band), that is not a situation where I would be compelled to buy aggressively, even though the stock could very well continue to set new highs.  The reason I would not be as compelled is because there is a lack of identifiable support, which is not the case when you see a stock trading in a tight volatility squeeze with its key moving averages approaching the current price.  In other words, with a proper volatility squeeze that breaks out to all time highs, you have an easily definable "I'm wrong" level, that will allow you to automatically shut the trade down for a very small loss if it reverses against you.

It's all about paying attention to the cyclical nature of buying and selling, the ebb and flow of trading behavior, and knowing when a given stock has consolidated long enough for you to have a higher probability of continued upside on a breakout; versus a stock that hasn't digested its move, and therefore will be more prone to an impending pull back or sideways consolidation phase even if it is setting a new all time high on the day.

I hope that made sense, a bit of steam of consciousness there... I'm hungry, and need to go eat! :crazy2:


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Invisibledemiu5
humans, lol
 User Gallery

Registered: 08/18/05
Posts: 43,948
Loc: the popcorn stadium Flag
Re: Stock Update for February 23, 2012 - GLD, SLV, IBM [Re: Stonehenge]
    #15853659 - 02/23/12 05:19 PM (11 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

Stonehenge said:
Maybe i can answer that one. GLD, the etf stock, is actually 1/10 oz per share. It trades at less than spot price so you buy it cheap and have to sell it cheap.







but why is that?


--------------------
channel your inner Larry David


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleDieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
Re: Stock Update for February 23, 2012 - GLD, SLV, IBM [Re: demiu5]
    #15853731 - 02/23/12 05:35 PM (11 years, 11 months ago)

Because an oz in the hand is worth 1.1 oz in the bush, or something like that.  :smile:


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinescatmanrav
Brainy Smurf


Registered: 05/08/04
Posts: 11,483
Loc: Flag
Last seen: 11 years, 26 days
Re: Stock Update for February 23, 2012 - GLD, SLV, IBM [Re: DieCommie]
    #15855407 - 02/23/12 10:38 PM (11 years, 11 months ago)

Exactly, a few profit takers drops the stock on low volume just to buy it, then your in for the ride up. Hopefully.

I havnt had the time to research much recently. It has cost me. I am still playing, but not as much. I took a stupid move or two after feeling smart about some good ones. GNK and LCC killed me. I wish I had been reading this and paying more attention but my focuses turned to real estate, which is working out well on that front. Oh well, time to get back into making sure I take the time every week.


--------------------
"life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake."

Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep)
Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use..
How I do grain (old still good tips)
Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber
Casing layer colonization and overlay


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 5 hours, 6 minutes
Stock Update for February 27, 2012 - JPM & the Banks [Re: scatmanrav]
    #15873190 - 02/27/12 09:23 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

This market just continues to move higher, and banks in particular are looking ready to move.

      BAC, WFC, JPM, GS are all lookin' good.





I have initiated an aggressive speculative trade today on JPM via March $40 call options. 
These are still out of the money and expire in a couple of weeks (i.e. risky), so frankly,
this is not a trade I would ever recommend to anyone unfamiliar with trading options.

Instead, I would suggest buying the common shares and keeping a stop below $37.75,
or $36.99 if you want to give it a little more room.  Since JPM is in a volatility squeeze
just above its 200 day & looking like it wants to pop here soon, I am leveraging up on the
trade for a quick flip on the near term out of the money calls.  On a trade like this, it will
be closed out if it doesn't immediately begin work in my favor, and I will either purchase
a little bit of common stock or begin building a position with some longer dated in the
money calls that have very little time value relative to their intrinsic "in the money"
value, which will give the thesis that JPM has room to run, a lot more time to play out.


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 5 hours, 6 minutes
Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2012 - JPM & the Banks [Re: geokills]
    #15875154 - 02/28/12 08:32 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

JPM is floundering about this morning, so I am taking off the trade for a very small gain and resetting alerts to get involved if the stock moves above $39.25 and the XLF (financial ETF) also breaks above its recent highs of $14.87.  Silver and gold continue to ramp, added to SLV again this morning.  My GOOG bull put spread is well on track to expiring worthless, the stock is actually breaking out above its recent consolidation under the 50 day moving average and is a decent long candidate.  CTL, a high yielder that I suggested a couple of weeks ago for those of you who aren't interested in short term trading, just continues to expand from its volatility squeeze on very heavy volume post earnings.  I wouldn't buy CTL now, but it sure has been treating me well!  AAPL, still rockin'.  IBM, watching this one for a break over $200.  RIG, expanding to the upside through its 200 day moving average.

Edit:  Holy shit, silver is a beast!  Trailing my stops up, as this thing is now hitting its 3rd standard deviation band to the upside and I don't want to give back a move this fast and fierce (I can always buy it back later on weakness).  JPM has also resumed its upward trajectory, though is lagging some of its peers, most notably GS.  GS is just about to poke its head out of a volatility squeeze at its 200 day moving average.  In fact, it's quite a bit closer to its 200 day than JPM is, which would indicate that on a relative basis it appears to have more room to run and has definitely been acting a little bit better on the day.  Nothing at all wrong with JPM mind you, I am just being a little hyperactive today.  Financials as a sector haven't quite broken out yet, but they look poised to do so very soon (watch the XLF for a move above $15).




Double Edit:  And I'm out of SLV for a totally sweet trade.  The thing just continued to ramp, but broke its intraday trend and was running into longer term resistance from its April and August highs as shown on these charts.  This is an important lesson for new traders: You must keep an eye on various trend lines in various time frames, as these will be your guides to tell you when the time is ripe to be aggressive, and when the time is right to focus on profit protection.  Because SLV gapped higher at the open, I was only long the common stock as I thought the options to be too risky.  Ultimately, the options would've been a home run, but that's the nature of risk management, and I'm happy to take home what I did in the trade.  I still maintain a larger position in gold, both physical and via Jan $150 calls on the GLD.



--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Edited by geokills (02/28/12 11:32 AM)


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineYrat
Hello

Registered: 11/08/07
Posts: 2,312
Last seen: 2 years, 10 months
Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2012 - JPM & the Banks [Re: geokills]
    #15876622 - 02/28/12 03:29 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

on days like today i look at my AGQ and smile.

my fiat profits will go towards stacking more phys.

Geo:  i don't think silver has topped out at resistance.  i think it might have broken through, and could thus be poised for an epic run.




--------------------
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
Strike The Root


Edited by Yrat (03/19/12 07:50 PM)


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 5 hours, 6 minutes
Re: Stock Update for February 27, 2012 - JPM & the Banks [Re: Yrat]
    #15877615 - 02/28/12 06:48 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

I will definitely keep an eye on silver and jump back in if it feels right.  The difference between your resistance trend line and mine is that I used closing prices for the highs whereas you used intraday highs.  Both methods work, and one should always consider multiple trendlines when making their buy/sell decisions.  At this juncture, I would consider us in the process of breaking out, close, but not quite confirmed yet in my opinion.


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 5 hours, 6 minutes
Stock Update for February 29, 2012 - Metals [Re: geokills]
    #15880527 - 02/29/12 09:56 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Well we sure got slammed pretty hard this morning off of that trendline I had drawn on the SLV chart.  Both gold and silver taking it on the chin, down 3.6 and 5.7% respectively on the day as of this writing.  I am going to wait to see how the day plays out, but am getting ready to use this as an opportunity to begin adding some silver bullion to my physical collection, as presently I have only ever held gold coins and I would like to have a lower value metal available to me.

A little bummed that I wasn't quicker to act on protecting my GLD call options this morning.  On my longer dated call options, I tend to only use price alerts instead of stops due to the wider spread between the bid and ask prices, but gold tanked so quickly this morning I just didn't have the time to react and took a li'l beating on the position (won't sell it now unless it breaks below $165), erasing all of my gains from earlier in the week in my aggregate portfolio.  Sucks, but such is the nature of trading.  I'll probably take the rest of the day off in order to prevent myself from doing something stupid in efforts to "make it all back", now that I am slightly emotionally charged.

Remember, the weakest link in any trading strategy is between your left and your right ear. :wink:  If you can avoid trading on emotion, you'll be better off.  If you think you're at risk, you had better just step away and cool off!  That's what I'm doing now.

As for stocks, I am not buying anything right here and indeed have closed a position or two this morning instead.  I'm not all "run for the hills", but the market has been so strong for so long, it would seem appropriate for it to pullback a little more meaningfully.  I welcome it, as an opportunity to find better entries and shake out some of the weaker hands.


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineYrat
Hello

Registered: 11/08/07
Posts: 2,312
Last seen: 2 years, 10 months
Re: Stock Update for February 29, 2012 - Metals [Re: geokills]
    #15881322 - 02/29/12 01:39 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

i sold all my AGQ at the high minutes after the open.  sure glad that i did, because yikes!

good dip to buy more phys.


--------------------
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
Strike The Root


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleSheikCorp
Stranger

Registered: 01/09/08
Posts: 2,274
Re: Stock Update for February 29, 2012 - Metals [Re: geokills]
    #15885289 - 03/01/12 10:36 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

With the gold and silver taking one on the chin, that would show a sign of peoples confidence returning?  I heard someone on the news a couple days ago saying how peoples confidence is back and things are looking good.  That would explain the dip.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleStonehenge
Alt Center
Male User Gallery
Registered: 06/20/04
Posts: 14,850
Loc: S.E.
Re: Stock Update for February 29, 2012 - [Re: geokills]
    #15886866 - 03/01/12 05:34 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

>One must understand that when a stock is at an all time high, everyone who has bought the stock is a winner.  Therefore, there is a lack of the "I want my money back" dynamic that produces overhead resistance on stocks that have gone down, thus causing people pain, and putting them in the mindset that "well, if the stock just gets a little bit higher, or I can sell it for breakeven, that's what I plan to do."

That seems to make sense but a lot of things make sense and don't work out. There is also the mindset that "its at an all time high, if i don't sell now i'll miss out" But what do i know? Good points about don't let emotion make your decisions. I think we all kicked ourselves thinking apple was fizzling out, jobs was gone, apple was losing it's rights in china to a trademark troll, and next thing youi know it went nuts hitting new highs. Time to get back in? Hell if i know.

I have enough in gold, silver i pick up when i can, i'll spec in gold if it goes back down. I have a pretty good physical position and i want to add to my r/e holding while the prices are fairly low still. Houses return a nice percentage in rent and are not that hard to manage. I may change my tune if i have 10 of them but i don't plan to go that far.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlineqman
Stranger

Registered: 12/06/06
Posts: 34,927
Last seen: 1 day, 14 hours
Re: Stock Update for February 29, 2012 - Metals [Re: SheikCorp]
    #15886948 - 03/01/12 05:51 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

SheikCorp said:
With the gold and silver taking one on the chin, that would show a sign of peoples confidence returning?  I heard someone on the news a couple days ago saying how peoples confidence is back and things are looking good.  That would explain the dip.





The sell off in gold and silver was a central bank staged event, they sold millions of paper ozs in a matter of 30 minutes, and their goal was not about getting a good price, it was for a smash down.

Why did they do this?  The gold and silver price has been rallying, and they just announced at $800 load bailout for Euro from the Fed and IMF, basically they just launched another massive QE (new printed money) program.

As far as listening to the main stream media for the state of the economy, I suggest looking or other sources, they are paid for talk up the dire situation.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleSheikCorp
Stranger

Registered: 01/09/08
Posts: 2,274
Re: Stock Update for February 29, 2012 - Metals [Re: qman]
    #15890372 - 03/02/12 01:11 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Ah good point I need to open my ears and eyes more. Can you recommend any places that aren't main stream and paid to sell that I could look to for info? 
  My money is invested into a mutual fund, and I have finally recovered from the losses from a while back.  I'm starting to research other investment opportunities.  I love this place!


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlineqman
Stranger

Registered: 12/06/06
Posts: 34,927
Last seen: 1 day, 14 hours
Re: Stock Update for February 29, 2012 - Metals [Re: SheikCorp]
    #15890461 - 03/02/12 01:38 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

SheikCorp said:
Ah good point I need to open my ears and eyes more. Can you recommend any places that aren't main stream and paid to sell that I could look to for info? 
  My money is invested into a mutual fund, and I have finally recovered from the losses from a while back.  I'm starting to research other investment opportunities.  I love this place!






Here are my favorite sites- 

1.King World News- audio interviews from some of the best every week, a must listen.

2.Jim Sinclair Mineset

3. TF Metals Report

4. Zerohedge

5. Gold Eagle

6. Paul Graig Robert IPE

Check them out, let me know what you think!!


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleSheikCorp
Stranger

Registered: 01/09/08
Posts: 2,274
Re: Stock Update for February 29, 2012 - Metals [Re: qman]
    #15890484 - 03/02/12 01:44 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Awesome thank you very much, I'll look at them when I get home :thumbup:


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 5 hours, 6 minutes
Stock Update for March 20, 2012 - Financials, GOOG, NFLX, VXX [Re: geokills]
    #15966782 - 03/19/12 10:32 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Just been killin' it in the market these past couple of weeks.  Today is one of my best days in a long while, been riding GOOG, C, GS, and SKH all morning to varying degree.  SKH is just a funky little stock that I added to my retirement portfolio as a longer term valuation trade since the company is very cheap relative to its growth rate, but the trade is thin, so I'm not taking a huge position on this one.  I've been trading in and out of things quite a bit this morning, and if I hadn't traded out of my GOOG calls from its break to 2 month highs earlier this morning, I'd have quadruple the already impressive profits I have today.  Oh well, such is the nature of trading... it's OK to leave some money on the table, so long as you are still making money.

On that note, these financials, wow.  Just unbelievable strength.  BAC, C, WFC, JPM, GS, take your pick!  AAPL moving back up towards its all time high after announcing a dividend payment and share buyback program this morning.  Lots of dividend funds will have to add AAPL to their portfolios now that it is one of the highest yielding tech stocks out there (in truth they have probably been doing that for a while now - hence why the stock has been going straight up for so long), thus there should be underlying buying pressure to carry this one higher still.  On a valuation basis, the stock is still, believe it or not, cheap!  That said, I am not trading that particular stock today.  I want to wait to see if it eclipses its high of $600.01, and if it does, I'll start to give it more attention.

In the meanwhile, check out the volatility squeeze breakout on GOOG.  There is some resistance at $640, but if break through that and the aggregate market stays strong, I think this one keeps moving for a while.  NFLX is in the midst of a tight squeeze and I have alerts set for a move outside of the bollinger bands ($117 on the top side, $104 on the downside).  NFLX is leaning bullish short term, however it would also be a good short candidate if the market weakens and it breaks its volatility squeeze to the downside, since it is right at its 50 day and just below its 200 day moving averages.

I have either closed out or have very tight stops on my remaining day trades with GOOG and C.  Goldman Sachs (GS) however, I am positioning myself for a bit more upside since it has lagged ever since the scathing article came out in the NYT's op-ed from a retiring exec bashing the company's ethical standards.  Despite their shitty business practices, the stock is likely to continue moving higher after bouncing at its 200 day.  Thus, I have opened up a bull put spread by selling April $120 puts and buying April $115's as insurance in my retirement account.  In my trading account, I am long pure call options, the April $120's.  I will sell at least half of these before the end of the day since they are already up over 10% from where I bought them.

PCLN... another new all time high.  Why haven't I been trading this? :foreheadslap:


Lastly, in recognition of how complacent market participants have been getting with the incessant strength of this market, which necessarily results in the Volatility Index (aka the VIX / VXX being the tradable instrument) falling to new lows,  I am selling June $20 put options.  This would give someone the right to force me to buy 100 shares of VXX at $20 for each contact I am selling.  Because I am receiving $3 for giving someone else this guarantee, my effective basis in the VXX would be $17 IF I were forced to buy it.  But frankly, I think we'll see the market take a little correction before June comes around, which should cause these puts to lose a lot of value (both intrinsic and time value), and I will likely cover most of the position by buying the puts back at a discount if and when that happens.  If it doesn't happen, I won't be bothered to pick up VXX at an effective basis of $17, since it has never even been below $19.88 in its history of trading and ultimately, there should be a market event that would allow for an exit on the trade, should it come to that.

Great market we have here, I sure hope some of you guys are benefiting from it.


Edit: Just took some V today as well.  I'm being fairly aggressive on this one (holding common stock as well as some April $120 calls), cause it hasn't yet eclipsed its old high of $119.36, but it's getting damn close and starting to push the upper bollinger band higher outside of a tight volatility squeeze.  On a close above $119.36, I would expect this thing to take off barring usual market weakness.



--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Edited by geokills (03/19/12 01:14 PM)


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 5 hours, 6 minutes
Stock Update for March 21, 2012 - V, GS, GOOG, NFLX [Re: geokills]
    #15976142 - 03/21/12 11:54 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Market is chopping around here at the top of its range.  No clear signals, though you'd have to believe we're in for some measure of a pullback soon.  Then again, the fact that the market is just grinding around on low volume exhibits that sellers are just not very aggressive, instead buyers seem to have simply taken their foot off the gas for a moment.  Financials are starting to take a breather today, so I will wait to add until we receive more clarity.  In the meanwhile, I am still holding my GS $120/$115 bull put spread, as well as some $120 calls on V.  Unfortunately, V is my problem child of the moment, the breakout in V two days ago was a fake out, and the stock has fallen back into its volatility squeeze.  Still, unless we breach $115.60, I'm comfortable holding this position with the expectation that it will ultimately break out.

Meanwhile, GOOG continues its vault higher out of a volatility squeeze.  Given the way this stock tends to trade, it seems reasonable that it should test its old high at around $670, though there may be a brief pullback before that occurs, if the overall market weakens.  It's been consolidating in a very wide range for the past two years now, so it will be interesting to see if it can break out of this long period of chop.  I am involved with May $630 calls, presently up some 20%.

NFLX is probably the best "right here right now" trade (unless you've been holding AAPL, PCLN or CMG - all of which are setting fresh all time highs... again! :crazy2:).  NFLX has been squeezing at its 50 day moving average and is just starting to breakout.  Hopefully the market doesn't take a spill before the end of the week, because if it doesn't, NFLX should go higher.  I traded some of the weekly $120 calls today that have since been sold for a profit, and continue to hold a handful of April $120 calls in anticipation of this volatility squeeze resolving to the upside over the coming days.

Lastly, I sold some lower strike puts on the VXX today, specifically the June $16's for $1.48 credit.  My June $20's are underwater, but I'm not too worried, since the market tends to zig and zag, and as soon as it takes a meaningful dip, these short puts on the VXX should be profitable in no time.  If I ultimately get the shares put to me, based on the puts I have sold, I'm looking at an average cost basis of $15.76.  That's a level I would not expect the VXX to be able to stay below for any appreciable amount of time.

Edit:  Going even farther out and selling some September $15 puts on the VXX for a $2.03 credit just before the close, which would give me an effective basis of $14.83 in the VXX if all of these puts were assigned to me, which I highly doubt will happen.  There was some institutional selling in the last 45 minutes here that makes me thing we'll probably see some more selling pressure later this week.  There is also a head and shoulders pattern developing on the S&P futures, with 1402 being the top of the right shoulder, a level which was rejected twice today, lending more support to the idea that the market is due for a pullback here soon.  If we do get some good weakness, I will probably buy back my $20 June puts for a profit, and let the lower $15 and $16 strikes ride.


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Edited by geokills (03/21/12 02:06 PM)


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 5 hours, 6 minutes
Re: Stock Update for March 21, 2012 - V, GS, GOOG, NFLX [Re: geokills]
    #15983424 - 03/22/12 08:44 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Silver is nearly 20% off of its 2012 highs set in February.  APMEX.com is running a sale on 1oz rounds for $0.99 over spot, any quantity, through 3:30pm pacific time tomorrow.  I picked up a little bit, you might want to too.  Wouldn't go crazy here though, as the metals do not appear to have an immediate upside catalyst.  Nevertheless, for those looking to build a position for asset class diversification (and not for a quick ROI), I think this is a good place to take a piece: 1oz Sunshine Minting Silver Round .999 fine


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Invisibleohmatic
searcher
 User Gallery

Registered: 02/28/04
Posts: 6,742
Loc: europe
Re: Stock Update for March 21, 2012 - V, GS, GOOG, NFLX [Re: geokills]
    #16007463 - 03/28/12 08:41 AM (11 years, 9 months ago)

again with apple, some people mubled something about the stock being divided possibly and such ..

this would set a drastic end to it's continuous rise eh ..

if one got into it around 500$ per share i guess around now would be a good time to get out ?


--------------------
:penis: MONOTUB tek :sun: HEATBOMB tek :penis:

RIP #cultivation! ....can't associate? well FUCK U !


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Jump to top Pages: < First | < Back | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | Next > | Last >

Shop: Kraken Kratom Red Vein Kratom   Unfolding Nature Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order   PhytoExtractum Buy Bali Kratom Powder, Maeng Da Thai Kratom Leaf Powder


Similar ThreadsPosterViewsRepliesLast post
* Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects
( 1 2 3 4 ... 500 501 )
geokillsA 250,331 10,002 01/27/24 05:04 PM
by geokills
* Does this look legit? The24HourMC 1,559 1 03/01/10 02:43 PM
by geokills
* Helium Network [US]: Low Cost Mobile Service with ROI for Providing Distributed Connectivity geokillsA 206 0 01/21/24 10:48 AM
by geokills
* Pretty good interest on my savings, but best strat? skOsH 190 4 01/21/24 03:40 PM
by Bungmurphy

Extra information
You cannot start new topics / You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled / BBCode is enabled
Moderator: geokills, automan
296,585 topic views. 0 members, 2 guests and 1 web crawlers are browsing this forum.
[ Show Images Only | Sort by Score | Print Topic ]
Search this thread:

Copyright 1997-2024 Mind Media. Some rights reserved.

Generated in 0.037 seconds spending 0.009 seconds on 15 queries.