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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for January 19, 2012 - RIG, AMZN, WLT, AAPL, SPY, VXX [Re: geokills]
    #15688288 - 01/19/12 01:19 PM (12 years, 12 days ago)

The RIG and AMZN volatility squeeze/expansion setups I noted yesterday continued to work very
well, with the stocks up 3.6% and 2.6% respectively today, well above the S&P's 0.5% gain.  The
AMZN call options I was bidding on got away from me unfortunately, and since AMZN is now
ramming its head into the 200 day exponential moving average (which served as resistance back in
early December), I tightened my stop on this issue, and was taken out of the position as I'm typing
at $193.63. 


My $40 February calls on RIG are up a whopping 40% since yesterday.  I thus snugged up my stops
so that I would automatically be taken out of the position for a 34% minimum gain if RIG began to
roll back down under $44.96 (and it did!).  My stop on the common stock leg of this position is much
looser, as it is yielding nearly 8% annually through its dividend and I am happy to hold onto this one
for the longer haul, since I believe the stock will ultimately continue to move higher.  Because the
options have a time value component and the expiration date of my calls was only a month away, I
needed to be much more cautious on that leg of the position, which is why the stop was so close.


Volume on WLT has been drying up a little bit over the past two sessions and the stock has been
rejected three times at the $63 level today.  I have thus closed my call option on WLT for a 10%
gain, since I am not thrilled with the way the stock is acting and would hate to see a small profit turn
into a loss on this guy.  I will keep it on my screen however, in hopes that it will churn around $60
for another week or two, thereby allowing the 50 day moving average to come down to meet the
price, and a proper volatility squeeze to develop. 


I have also sold a February $430 call against my $305 Jan 2013 long call on AAPL.  This position is
already very profitable, and even though AAPL did mark a new all time high today, I am a little
weary that the stock is up almost 20% in the past two months.  Earnings are slated to be announced
on Tuesday as well, and the market has been so strong that I think it is also due for some measure
of a pullback.  Further, AAPL by itself has been underperforming the market on the day, which is
always cause for concern.


In accordance with this general market view, I have opened up a relatively small put option position
on the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) as well as some call options on the VXX (a volatility ETF), which is in
essence a bet that the market will indeed see a little pull back sooner rather than later.  These puts
expire in February, so I have some time to use these as protection against my remaining long
positions.  Of course, I have snug stops on these as well, such that if the market does end up
breaking to a new high, I will be taken out of these defensive options for a very small loss and then
re-evaluate the action to determine when it may be appropriate to get more defensive once again.


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Re: Stock Update for January 19, 2012 - RIG, AMZN, WLT, AAPL, SPY, VXX [Re: geokills]
    #15696429 - 01/21/12 07:17 AM (12 years, 10 days ago)

geo, I appreciate all the info you post here. Especially because I don't have a great deal of time to put into research. Due to the lack of time, all my buys are for stocks that I plan on to hold onto.

I picked up some AGNC back in early December as you recommended. Any thoughts on other stocks to buy and hold?

Oh and just so I don't get the do your due diligence response from people, I do research what is suggested. I just don't have a whole lot of time to go out and sift through a bunch of stocks to find something that is worth researching more. So the recommendations give me a starting point. Otherwise I just end up buying mutual funds.

Thanks


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Offlineben_dover0802
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Re: Stock Update for January 19, 2012 - RIG, AMZN, WLT, AAPL, SPY, VXX [Re: MisterPink]
    #15701678 - 01/22/12 12:17 PM (12 years, 9 days ago)

Obviously I am not Geo, but have been been making good profits lately. Currently, I am pretty heavily invested due to my belief that we are on our way up.

Some sectors to look at yourself (looks to me like a bottom has been put in):
Homebuilders are acting well.  This includes PHM, BZH, KBH, MHO  Most of these are overextended now and will most likely come down to support around of 20dma, but these are clearly getting more expensive at a pretty high rate. Kinda risky though if you are just buying and holding without checking on them at least once a week.

Financials - BAC,WFC,JPM  - Again, you could probably get a better price for these if we get a pullback, but it looks like these guys are going up ultimately

I am also invested in steel - AKS is mine, but another big one is X. These haven't really broken out yet but look poised to - they have had a bad few years and I feel a rally is coming. Of course, I use stops just in case I am wrong.

I bought some IBM friday.  They posted some good earnings and expectations, and looking at the mutliyear rally, I think it continues going up from here.

I have a couple more stocks that I believe are going up, but those are more of trades that I will probably ditch next week.

Hope this quickens your own research and good luck!


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for January 19, 2012 - RIG, AMZN, WLT, AAPL, SPY, VXX [Re: MisterPink]
    #15706561 - 01/23/12 11:26 AM (12 years, 8 days ago)

Hi MisterPink!  AGNC is a good longer term hold, glad you got in.  Other stocks that should be suitable for a lengthy term holding period and not require a lot of micromanagement (in other sectors) include CTL, MO, RIG and BIP; all of which pay dividends ranging from 5-8%.  It does look like the market is making a bit of a turn here, and at least for the time being the European crisis has morphed into more of a European condition, evidenced by the recent downgrade of the European Financial Stability Facility (AKA their bailout fund) not having much effect on the global markets.  Of course, these things are fluid and can change at any time... so even if you aren't day trading, you need to take a glance at your portfolio from time to time, know your investment time horizon and plan to scale into and out of positions accordingly, and even set some sell stop levels on at least partial positions in efforts to manage your risk for those moments when you cannot be actively managing your portfolio.

As ben_dover suggested, I will second the notion that taking some sort of position in the financial and steel sectors is probably a good idea.  BAC and X are two of my favorites at this juncture, though I would like to wait for at least a little pullback to add to the financial sector, I missed the one last week!  X is at a better buy point, and I did buy a little bit this morning in fact, though you should try to buy as close to the stock's 50 day moving average (presently around $26.40) as possible, in order to minimize risk and be able to use a tighter sell stop level.  These stocks -- that is, basic materials, steel, financials, technology, retail -- will be considerably more volatile (i.e. more risky) than the dividend payers noted in the first paragraph.  But, if the markets do stage a meaningful recovery, these sectors can also produce the most fruitful rewards.

All the best.


Edit:  This market is very strong on both a short and intermediate term basis.  While I am mindful of the risk of a pullback, I am also mindful that there is risk of missing more upside in a market that refuses to pullback.  As such, I have initiated some small positions in ADM and NVDA this afternoon, via January 2013 $25 calls on ADM and Jun $10 calls on NVDA.  I left plenty of room to add to these positions in the event that the market does finally pull back, but nevertheless, wanted to put some more skin in the game by adding a little bit of exposure to the agricultural and semiconductor sectors.  On any weakness, I will add to these positions as well X, BAC and RIG.


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Edited by geokills (01/23/12 02:00 PM)


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Re: Stock Update for January 19, 2012 - RIG, AMZN, WLT, AAPL, SPY, VXX [Re: geokills]
    #15711743 - 01/24/12 01:52 PM (12 years, 7 days ago)

I hate it when the market goes up because then oil goes up and gas shoots up right after. Gold goes up too but i'm not selling so i'd rather see it stay down.

I really dont understand this irrational exuberance lately. Yes, some signs of recovery are being seen in the economy but only a little. What worries me is not only europe which is near the point of collapse but lots of other things too. Obama has decided to push iran into a corner and punish it for obama's belief that it plans to make nuclear weapons. Iran is making more and more threats to close the strait of hormuz. War is not at all impossible here and iran is much tougher than iraq. They also have long distance missiles and no doubt dirty bombs. They know good and well isreal is behind what usa is doing and the murders and sabotage that is going on.

N korea has nukes, we know it. Are we pushing them into a corner? No, we have gotten no orders to that effect. Lots of countries have them, pakistan does but we don't care. Israel has them, we gave them more. But for some reason iran is singled out. I would not be surprised if they simply mined the strait. Advanced mines can not be simply swept by conventional sweepers. They will target only certain size ships or can be remotely controlled. They have missiles and their backs are being pushed against the wall. USA has committed what many see as acts of war against iran.

What has this to do with stock market prices? Could be a lot.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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Re: Stock Update for January 19, 2012 - RIG, AMZN, WLT, AAPL, SPY, VXX [Re: Stonehenge]
    #15713777 - 01/24/12 09:15 PM (12 years, 7 days ago)

Damn I had a strong feeling Apple was going to post strong earnings but didn't buy any! This should boost the whole tech sector and give some optimism in the entire market hopefully though.  AMZN can be intelligently bought right now, I may pick up some tomorrow. (Congrats on hitting that volatility squeeze for both RIG and AMZN geo, i unfortunately missed it).

After a very quick search Peabody Energy(BTU) from the coal sector looks like a good buying opportunity right here.

Additionally, housing sector currently looks strong as balls to me.  Buying BZH now would not be a bad entry as long as a stop barely below today's low is used.

Happy trading!


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for January 25, 2012 - AAPL, NVDA, ADM, BAC, GLD, wars [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #15715631 - 01/25/12 10:45 AM (12 years, 6 days ago)

Quote:

Damn I had a strong feeling Apple was going to post strong earnings




Funny thing, so did I.  The sales numbers on the iPhone 4S were huge, and I think I had even posted earlier in this thread about the idea that a lot of iPhone 3/3GS owners were waiting for the big iPhone 5 announcement, and though it wasn't called an iPhone 5, I still figured people would be buying the 4S similarly after such a wait.  I figured this because that's exactly what I was doing... hell, I even bought myself an iPad in this past quarter.

But even with that personal evidence, I know better than to gamble too stiffly on earnings... it's always a bit of a crap shoot because you just never know.  Thus, I had sold a near term out of the money call option against my Jan 2013 $305 long call option; in order to protect some of my profits against a downside move on earnings.  That surely didn't maximize my profit given the pop AAPL has seen today, but the position was still levered toward the bullish side and I closed both legs this morning for a nice gain.  Well, technically the Feb $430 call I shorted was bought back for a loss of around $800, but the Jan 2013 $305 I was long got sold for a gain of over $5,000.  One of my better trades, but on this type of gap higher, I am not expecting the stock to continue running, especially as the overall market seems like it wants to take a little breather.  So, I've sold my beloved AAPL, but will continue to watch it and if it fills the gap back down to ~$430, I will definitely buy it back, rinse and repeat.

NVDA and ADM have been giving me slightly better entries, so I have added to both of those positions.  NVDA is looking particularly nice (even though it is down more than 2% on the day), because it was pushed down very hard in the morning but has staged a nice recovery and is presently trading at the top of its daily range.  So long as it closes above its 20 day moving average, I will feel OK... and if it closes above its 50 day moving average, I will feel rather good about this position.  ADM is a slow mover, just churning around at its 200 day.  I see support at $29, and will add to the position again if we get closer to that level (and/or stop out if we fall below it!).

I still don't see a good entry on the financials, so I will bide my time.  BAC at $6.50 sure would be nice.

The Fed just came out with their statement indicating that there will be more of the same, artificially low rates for a longer period of time than was expected (to mid or late 2014).  The market is popping a little bit, but really it's a bit of a yawner, since the low rates can propel stocks (read: inflation), but it can also be read into meaning that the economy continues to stagnate enough that the Fed isn't comfortable taking a more proactive stance in raising interest rates for fear of stifling a very weak recovery (if indeed there even is a meaningful recovery taking place).  On the upside, gold is rocketing higher on the news!

ben_dover, Re: BZH - Yesterday indeed would have been the day to be buying.  This type of stock is one that should really only be bought really close to support.  I wouldn't touch it today, since volatility is pretty high on this one and it's already moved almost 70% in two months!  I would expect it to churn around here at its 200 day moving average for at least another several sessions before it will mount a sustainable breakout above the recent highs around $3.34.  I could be wrong, but that's what my gut tells me.

Re: BTU - Yes this does look like an appropriate level to buy this stock; however coal in general has been fairly week as a sector, so I would definitely keep a no-bullshit stop right below yesterday's earnings announcement low of $34.71.  If it falls below that level, I wouldn't want anything to do with it whatsoever.

Stonehenge - While I surely don't want to see it happen, wars are often positive for the market.  Just look at what happened to the S&P in the wake of the September 11, 2001 attacks and the subsequent invasion of Iraq.

Trade safe, stay in phase with the trend, stay involved but for the love of your money, use stops!


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Re: Stock Update for January 25, 2012 - AAPL, NVDA, ADM, BAC, GLD, wars [Re: geokills]
    #15716284 - 01/25/12 01:44 PM (12 years, 6 days ago)

any sources/resources for someone with no market experience to get started?  i'm currently out of work with a nice chunk of change.  obviously i'm not going to jump into anything, but it would be nice to be learning and watching while i have free time looking for a new job.

i do have some investments in physical silver, but not more than a grand or two's worth






edit:  i just found these links of yours

    Jim Cramer's Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World
    Jim Cramer's Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich
Jim Cramer's Stay Mad For Life



4+ years later, are they still relevant?




also, do you have a background in finance?  did you go to school for it or anything?


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Edited by demius (01/25/12 01:59 PM)


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Re: Stock Update for January 25, 2012 - AAPL, NVDA, ADM, BAC, GLD, wars [Re: demiu5]
    #15716552 - 01/25/12 02:51 PM (12 years, 6 days ago)

Geo, i'm glad you were able to unload your appl at a good price and lock in the profit you had spent so much time building up. You don't want to look at another crash and wish you had gotten out sooner. But if it goes up you will be wishing you had stayed in a little longer. Damned if you do, damned if you dont.

I read recently that greece is now considered in default by s+p. Its like watching a slow motion train wreck. I dont have the nerve to get in with all this uncertainty. Its like being on the side of a volcano

demius, you could do worse than put more into gold or silver.


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Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for January 25, 2012 - AAPL, NVDA, ADM, BAC, GLD, wars [Re: demiu5]
    #15716757 - 01/25/12 03:42 PM (12 years, 6 days ago)

Quote:

demius said:
any sources/resources for someone with no market experience to get started?

    Jim Cramer's Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World
    Jim Cramer's Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich
    Jim Cramer's Stay Mad For Life

4+ years later, are they still relevant?




Jim Cramer's Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World, is the cream of the crop of the above texts, and is still quite relevant as an all around stock market primer (much of it is in fact paraphrased in the first post I made in this thread).  Stay Mad For Life focuses more on longer term retirement planning, it's not a bad read either, but not as useful as his "Real Money" publication.  Watch TV, Get Rich... take it or leave it.  He has another one called Getting Back to Even... I haven't read it.

In addition to Real Money, I would strongly suggest picking up Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas.  Whereas Real Money takes a more fundamental approach to the markets and general investing principles, Trading in the Zone focuses on the psychology of the weakest link in anybody's trading repertoire: themselves.  I've learned so many of the lessons from Trading in the Zone the hard way (i.e. I lost a lot of money learning those lessons), but the book lays 'em out in a pretty straightforward and easy to understand manner.  Very cool book, wish I'd found it sooner!

Lastly, go sign up for the one month trial at www.stockmarketmentor.com - A really great trading community that will help you stay in sync & focused with the aggregate market, while highlighting select opportunities, so long as you take the time and are diligent about watching the daily strategy sessions each evening.  SMM has a pretty good forum too, though it's getting more crowded by the day, and as such, I find myself not participating or using it as much as I used to, back when it was quieter and more of the responses were from competent seasoned traders.  You still get a lot of great material in the forum there, but it's mixed up with a lot of not so great material as well... kinda like how the Shroomery has grown, I suppose!


Quote:

also, do you have a background in finance?  did you go to school for it or anything?




No formal financial background, though I started running my first business when I was 13 or 14, re-selling server space for personal websites and doing some limited design work.  I've always known that I wanted to be as self-sufficient as possible (and having to answer to someone else as infrequently as possible!), which after having run a handful more businesses and building up some scratch, is why I reckon the stock market appealed to me.  Whether I make or lose money, it's always 100% on me... and I like that!  It's also a helluva challenge, and I like that too.  Good luck!  I would love for you to share of your experience and progress, if you're feeling it.


Stonehenge - "Damned if you do, damned if you don't"... that's a terrible attitude!  If I truly believed that, I wouldn't be wasting my time.  Selling my AAPL position today was the responsible decision to make.  There is a time to be greedy, but on the move AAPL had today (especially after the move it's had over the past two months), this is not the time to be greedy.  I will never begrudge taking a profit, even if the stock continues to go higher after I have cut my ties.  And really, it only takes a few keyboard clicks to get back involved, which I've already expressed my intention to do.  Frankly, I am beyond belief happy if I can catch 75% of a move in any given stock.  Worrying about catching 100% of a move is for suckers, because you never will!


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for January 26, 2012 - ADM, X, CTL [Re: geokills]
    #15720811 - 01/26/12 01:41 PM (12 years, 5 days ago)

While we could easily fall another 2 to 4% on the S&P without any cause for concern, I am using today's weakness to add to my positions in ADM and X, as well as adding a new position in CTL, a communications company that pays a handsome 7.8% dividend at the current price.  For those of you who prefer to trade less actively and hold positions for longer periods of time, CTL is a prime candidate for your portfolio.  I wouldn't bet the farm today, as I think we could easily pull back to 1280-1290 on the S&P, and maybe even all the way down to the 200 day moving average at 1250ish.  All the same, my time horizon on these positions is not particularly short term, so I don't mind beginning to build up the positions right here, while leaving plenty of cash available to continue building them at lower levels, should we go there.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for January 28, 2012 - NFLX, GOOG [Re: geokills]
    #15729921 - 01/28/12 04:06 PM (12 years, 3 days ago)

I posted this in Script's thread on NFLX today, but wanted to include it here for my reference, and because I think the two trade ideas discussed are good ones (credit to OptionMarketMentor.com for highlighting these trade ideas - I'm telling anyone who wants to be a better trader, go register at StockMarketMentor.com, and if you want to learn about options as well, OptionMarketMentor.com is a great supplemental service).

Quote:

Concerning Netflix (NFLX):  I would definitely advise using a stop now, if you don't already have one in place.  Conservatively, at least a partial position stop should be placed at $112, since in the event that NFLX falls below its earnings day low, it will probably fill the gap back to around $100 before resuming its recovery.

I put in a low ball bid for some NFLX March $100 calls on Friday morning before I had to leave my desk for the day, after recognizing that their earnings report indicated substantial subscriber growth and that, despite the piss poor management, the company does deserve a higher multiple given its revised growth expectations in the wake of their new pricing/Quixster fiasco.  How much of a multiple... Who really knows?  But the fact that the stock didn't sell off at all after its 20%+ high volume jump on earnings is a sign that the there is still buying interest.  So I put in my bid before I had to leave, not expecting much, yet came home to the pleasant surprise that I was filled near the lows of the morning, and that my calls closed up over 25% on the day.  On Monday, should the stock exhibit any weakness, I will close the call position since it has a lot of high volatility premium (i.e. time value) and can move against me very quickly if NFLX reverses to the downside.

BULL PUT SPREAD IDEAS:

Regardless of whether NFLX is strong, weak, or flat, an alternate strategy would be to open up a bull put spread position, by buying the March $105 put for around $3.70 and selling the March $110 put for around $5.10, in order to take in a net premium of ~$140 per spread.  This trade is based on the premise that NFLX will stay above $110 by the time the March 17th expiration rolls around, which will result in both contracts expiring worthless, thereby allowing you to keep the $140 per spread premium.  So long as NFLX stays above $108.60, the trade is safe, but below that level it will begin to lose money, for a maximum loss of $360 per spread if NFLX is below $105 at the March expiration.  If I open this position and NFLX does fall back below $112 (it's earnings day low), I would buy back my short $110 put for a loss and let the long $105 put run in anticipation of NFLX filling more of its gap between $100 - $112 on a break below $112.

I am also considering using this same bull put spread strategy on GOOG by selling the March $560 call and buying the March $550 call, for a premium of ~$250 per spread on the premise that GOOG is finding some well defined support at its 200 day moving average and will therefore be above $560 on March 17th, with a breakeven point so long as GOOG is at or above $557.50 on expiration day, and a maximum loss of $750 per spread if GOOG is at or below $550 on expiration.  Of course, I would not be likely to take the maximum loss, because if GOOG does fall below $564.55 (the low from Thursday where it tested its 200 day moving average and bounced), I would buy back the short $560 call for a loss and let the long $550 call run in anticipation of more downside on a break of the 200 day moving average.

Hope that makes sense.  Selling credit spreads like the bull put spreads explained here, is a relatively safe strategy so long as you pick your levels carefully.  It's particularly nice when the market has already had such a strong run, because if you were to simply own long calls and the market pulls back or trades sideways (which it seems there is a fairly high liklihood it will -- that's just the natural ebb and flow of the market), a simple long call option position will get crushed pretty quickly as both time and intrinsic value is sucked out of the contract.  However, a well placed bull put spread will remain a good and profitable trade even if your stock pulls back a bit (without violating your chosen support level), as well as if it were to simply trades sideways for a long time.




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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for January 30, 2012 - NFLX, GOOG, NVDA [Re: geokills]
    #15738563 - 01/30/12 03:01 PM (12 years, 1 day ago)

S&P put in a nice intraday reversal to the upside.  I sold my NFLX call on this morning's li'l spike as I just don't want to carry that much risk, even though I think the stock probably will go higher, and will continue to watch it for other opportunities (such as the bull put spread discussed above, or even just some plain ol' common stock).

I did initiate a handful of bull put spreads on GOOG this morning, as outlined in my previous post, the only difference being that the premium was even better that I had originally assumed, at $290 per spread.  Lastly, I added to NVDA since I see it coiling here above its 50 day moving average on declining volume and it sure looks poised to breakout above its 200 day moving average soon.  I think that once it does, there will be some solid follow on buying and I want to be on board before that happens.  The beauty of this setup is that you can place your stop very near to the current price, so that if you're wrong, you won't get clipped too bad.

AAPL is starting to look juicy again.  WYNN and CTL also put in some nice intraday reversals to the upside, but I did not take action on any of these three names today.


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Offlineben_dover0802
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Re: Stock Update for January 30, 2012 - NFLX, GOOG, NVDA [Re: geokills]
    #15740119 - 01/30/12 08:19 PM (12 years, 1 day ago)

I did not notice RenRen taking off until Dan mentioned it today :frown:.  That would have been one sweet trade

I got stoppped out on a couple positions today, but looking at the technicals of the S&P and the bounce today, I expect some upside this week.  Should the S&P go up tomorrow, I will be buying some stocks.

I agree AAPL is looking bullish, steel stocks X & AKS both look ready to pop, PHM looks like it can go higher. Ill be looking at WYNN. Also RENN even after the 50% rise in 2 days, however I don't think the market as a whole has much effect on a stock blasting into space like that - looking to possibly get in and out depending on how it acts in the morning.


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Re: Stock Update for January 30, 2012 - NFLX, GOOG, NVDA [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #15740351 - 01/30/12 09:16 PM (12 years, 1 day ago)

I am pretty much fully loaded on X, not too interested in RENN, though it did have a nice ride there.  Up 50% in two days though, it's not good for much other than a quick intraday flip, and I just don't see myself taking that trade.  I will be watching BAC for a move to $6.85ish to initiate a position.  BTU is also looking pretty good, closing at $35.45 with an appropriate sell stop at $34.69... pretty low risk (though I will be watching the $DJUSCL index for a breakout here, before getting involved in any coal stocks in a meaningful way).  For a small dollar play, HEK looks interesting and I have an alert set at >= $5.25... in which case I may take it for a quick ride.  All things considered, this has been a kind market so far this year, let's hope it stays that way!  But make damn sure you keep those stops in place, just in case it gets ugly!


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Re: Stock Update for January 30, 2012 - NFLX, GOOG, NVDA [Re: geokills]
    #15741565 - 01/31/12 05:25 AM (12 years, 20 hours ago)

wow apple explodes !!!! :O


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Re: Stock Update for January 30, 2012 - NFLX, GOOG, NVDA [Re: geokills]
    #15741567 - 01/31/12 05:27 AM (12 years, 20 hours ago)

How much do you all pay attention to the pre or post market changes? I dont even know where to find that information outside of the major indexes. Does it exist for the majority of stocks?

Market seems like it will be doing fairly well today and possibly for the next 2 or 3 days as well. I read this article which makes things sound stable for a bit giving most americans confidence in the market.

As for stocks i watch, i could see OCZ rising a good 12 or so percent between today and tomorrow. It was testing some new support levels monday and friday which held relatively well and if it breaks above its recent high of like ~8.78 or so it doesnt have much upper resistance for a while. Although i have only been investing since june so im still a novice, but something to look at if anyone is interested.

Btw, i love reading all of your posts Geokills they are some enjoyable and insightful stuff. I also appreciated ben_dover0802's post on stocks to give a look over. And of course everyone else who posts in this thread is awesome as this has got to be the best thread in the shroomery


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Re: Stock Update for January 30, 2012 - NFLX, GOOG, NVDA [Re: Bambi]
    #15741879 - 01/31/12 08:59 AM (12 years, 17 hours ago)

You can't keep a good AAPL down... the stock is hitting fresh all time highs this morning, though I am not taking a bite right here in the face of a weak market opening (gap higher and immediately selling off).  RIG is another stock that is acting well today.

I had to cut loose my position in ADM for a disappointing though not crippling 16% loss on the heels of their poor earnings report this morning.  NVDA and X are also under a little bit of pressure, though thus far are still holding well above their trend lines and I am not looking to exit the positions unless the market weakens in a more severe fashion.  X got earnings out of the way and had a little pop at the open, but has suffered from aggregate market weakness since.  Forget what I said about BTU yesterday, that has broken trend this morning; and the S&P in general appears to be struggling on the heels of a downside surprise on the Consumer Confidence report.

All that said, it's not like the market is going to hell in a hand basket... at least not today.  But we have had a helluva run off of the October lows and I would wait for the market to mark some time grinding around a little bit before enthusiastically punching the buy button.  I honestly would not be terribly surprised to see the S&P fall 20 points into the 1290 area, and thus will remain cautious in the immediate term.  It's the last trading day of a very good month, so if I had to guess I'd guess that we'll probably just see a bunch of mixed chop throughout the balance of the day, without any seriously big losses or gains.  Thus, I'll probably step away from my desk before too long and focus on other things!

To Bambi - I will check the S&P futures (the Es as they are called), to see where the market bias is leading prior to the next session's open.  However, after market trading is very thin on volume and it should therefore not be used as a primary influence on your trading behavior.  It is much more important to pay close attention to how the market opens (what it does after the first 15 minutes of regular session trading), in order to get a better bias for that day's trading.  Likewise, it is also very important to pay attention to how the market closes, as that is typically where the big fund managers do the majority of their buying and selling, and the closing momentum can be used as a relatively decent gauge of forward looking momentum for the next day's trading.

In so far as stock specific after-hours information, not all stocks will trade after hours, and thus there will be no after hours data for many stocks.  I will only be interested if there are major dislocations on a specific stock, which I will sometimes look to fade (take the opposite side of the trade) the following day during regular trading hours, since after hours moves are typically exaggerated due to the thin trading volume.


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Stock Update for February 1, 2012 - GRPN, NVDA, X, MOS, AAPL [Re: geokills]
    #15746444 - 02/01/12 09:03 AM (11 years, 11 months ago)

The market continues to be very strong.  Financials are still strong, but I just can't bring myself to buy 'em quite yet.  I did take a quick scalp on GRPN this morning.  The stock actually looks poised for more upside now that it is breaking above its newly formed 50 day moving average.  I've actually done two trades on GRPN, riding it on a 5 minute chart with March $19 call options near the open, up nearly 20% in a matter of minutes, so I closed that trade for a nice profit and re-entered with a half size position on the pull back to $21, with the intent to hold these re-bought calls overnight (provided GRPN closes above its 50 day) to see how the stock reacts in the coming days.




NVDA is at the top of its symmetrical wedge (triangle pattern).  On a break above $15, this thing should have a lot more room to run.  On a break below $14.45, I don't want to be involved anymore.

X is starting to expand, getting close to testing its 200 day moving average about 7% higher than the stock is currently trading.  I will probably take half of the position off once we hit that 200 day, and wait for a little pull back before buying back that half position, since I think X could start to move above its 200 day moving average fairly soon, but stocks typically take a little breather while attempting to surmount these psychologically significant levels, thereby giving me an opportunity to trade around the position for additional profits.

I initiated a new position in MOS this morning, since it is appears to be breaking out of its recent range of consolidation and could also be on its way to test its 200 day moving average, also 7 or 8% higher than the current price.  The stock is a fairly slow mover, but has been consistently trickling higher, and I think that habit will continue now that we are breaking out to new two-month highs.  It is important to recognize, however, that there is longer term downtrending resistance on a weekly chart that started a full year ago, which now corresponds with the $60 level... so I will probably reduce my exposure to this position at that level just to manage my risk.

AAPL is marking time at new highs, I have bids in for May $400 call options, but do not want to chase the stock right here, as such, my bids correspond to an underlying share price of around $450.


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Stock Update for February 2, 2012 - GRPN, NVDA, X, CREE [Re: geokills]
    #15751655 - 02/02/12 01:05 PM (11 years, 11 months ago)

Just been killing it in the market lately.  I took two thirds of the GRPN trade off that I highlighted yesterday, for a 100% gain - a double - in two days time.  I think it still has legs to run some more, but when I start to see my account balance climbing this fast, it's a reminder that the prudent thing to do is to take some profits.  Funny how an up market can make you feel like a genius, and when you think you're a genius, that's probably just about a split second before you do something really dumb, like let all your profits evaporate into thin air, or take on exponentially greater amounts of risk since "what the hell, I've made so much money, might as well just keep making more".  If only trading were so easy...

That being said, one shouldn't fight a kind market; it's good to let your winners have some room to run and to know when it is appropriate to add to positions that are working in your favor.  This is why I am still holding a third of the GRPN Mar $19 calls, and haven't sold any of my NVDA or X calls.  NVDA in particular is finally breaking out of its symmetrical triangle to the upside, right around its 20/50/200 day moving average.  This should in all odds be a sustainable longer term move higher, and I am actively bidding to increase my exposure now that I have some profits built into the position for protection, I am in essence trading from a position of strength.


   


X does not look particularly actionable right here right now, but my options on this position are dated for January 2013 and are already up 20%, so I am happy to let them ride while this steel stock works to break through its 200 day moving average.  Of some concern is AKS, another domestic steel producer that is trading down a rather hard 5.5% so far today.  I haven't looked into the specific reasons why, but the fact that there is some weakness in the sector is a yellow flag, despite the fact that X is actually up 1% on the day.

CREE is another stock worth watching.  If I had been watching it at the open this morning, I no doubt would already own some!  It's certainly looking poised for more upside momentum, given the big rash of buying after earnings, and the subsequent low-volume consolidation that has been taking place over the past couple of weeks.

Remember, discipline trumps conviction!  That being said, this market versus last year's market is like the difference between day and night.  Amazing how something so abstract as a calendar can cause such a significant psychological shift in aggregate trading behavior.  Out with the old themes, in with the new.


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