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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for November 4, 2011 - FSLR, RIG, X, ARMH [Re: scatmanrav]
    #15322027 - 11/04/11 01:05 PM (12 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

scatmanrav said:

EDIT:  Getting some UXG as well today on a dip.




I think UXG sees $4.40 before it sees $5.  It looks to be ramming into resistance at its 50 day.  The fact that it is so widely underperforming the market is a sign of relative weakness.  I also see limited upside to $5.45, as there is a very clear downtrend on the weekly chart that has persisted for the better part of this entire year.  I've said it before and I'll say it again, I don't like the gold miners.  I tried to trade them in a distant past and they always screwed me.  I find it MUCH easier to trade gold spot via GLD.


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Offlinesofa_king_happy
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Re: Stock Update for November 4, 2011 - FSLR, RIG, X, ARMH [Re: geokills]
    #15322469 - 11/04/11 02:49 PM (12 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
I find it MUCH easier to trade gold spot via GLD.




http://etfdailynews.com/2011/10/28/is-the-%E2%80%98d-day%E2%80%99-nearing-for-the-spdr-gold-etf-gld-iau-slv-dzz-gdx/

thoughts?


Also what are your thoughts on short selling groupon(GRPN). They just went public today on the market, and it seems they are going out of business.....


Edited by sofa_king_happy (11/04/11 03:03 PM)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for November 6, 2011 - X, ULTA, MCP, AMZN, AAPL [Re: sofa_king_happy]
    #15333469 - 11/06/11 10:46 PM (12 years, 2 months ago)

I don't really have much to say about the article you have posted specifically.  For what it's worth, I do maintain a store of physical gold as my primary hedge against currency inflation and general economic fear.  My GLD trades are supplemental and smaller in size, and only undertaken when I feel that there is a near term opportunity.  Simply stated, I trade what I see, and for several years now I've seen GLD track the performance of the spot price of gold rather admirably.  Maybe some day that changes, and if or when that day comes, I will be satisfied that I have implemented stops to help guard against a trend break, as well maintain a diversified portfolio (i.e. putting only a small portion of my assets into GLD) in order to mitigate the risk of some sort of outlier event hurting me in a major way.

On GRPN, it's probably going to be a pretty wild ride for a little while.  Trading an IPO is not for the faint of heart.  For the real short term day traders next week, there's a very simple range to work with based on its opening day:  Below $26, be short / Above $28, go long.  Anywhere in between $26 - $28 and I wouldn't dream of touching the thing because you'll have no edge other than luck (which isn't really much of an edge at all).






I'm looking over my charts, and can't help but feel really good about the way X and ULTA are looking.  LOTS of volume last week, and moving higher out of a relatively prolonged base.  The key difference, X is breaking out of a downtrend / low base; ULTA is breaking out of an uptrend / high base.  I see both of them offering significant upside.  Don't forget MCP, it's still a little early in the move, but it's looking like a coiled spring right here and I want to be all over it when that spring pops (or drops!).  I also like AMZN and AAPL as we move into the holiday season, both have been just grinding around for a while now, but they are major market leaders that should both have a bright future ahead.

Trade safe and trade well!  Always define your risk, try not to chase, cut your losers quickly and don't force your trades.  Be honest with yourself and if something isn't feeling right, get out of it and above all else, don't ruminate over your bad trades.  Move on with a clear head and always adhere to your discipline.

The rest is easy. :smile:


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for November 6, 2011 - X, ULTA, MCP, AMZN, AAPL [Re: geokills]
    #15334974 - 11/07/11 08:41 AM (12 years, 2 months ago)

Took some risk off this morning.  Choppy and directionless market that is fairly neutral, with a slight edge to the downside.  I sold the rest of my X calls for a 30% gain, as well as my RIG for a very small gain that basically covered my commissions.  Still involved with AAPL and AMZN for the longer haul, both of which continue to grind sideways at present.  Also holding on to GLD, MCP, ULTA, and of course my high yielders NLY, AGNC and BIP.  Probably won't do much else today other than watch the action.  I will be keeping an eye on the steel (X) and coal space (PCX and ACI) for a bounce this week, as both of these sectors have been really beaten up over the past several months and are still looking pretty good for the intermediate term future, even though they are acting poorly this morning.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for November 8, 2011 - ULTA, X, AAPL, PCX, ACI [Re: geokills]
    #15339994 - 11/08/11 09:43 AM (12 years, 2 months ago)

Another day to SOH (sit on hands).  Closed ULTA flat, after it started showing weakness right from the opening print.  I think the stock is probably fine for intermediate to long term holders, but I owned November $75 options which expire in a couple of weeks, on the thesis that a volatility expansion would be presently underway; and when you have such a near dated contract that is in danger of being out of the money, you really can't twitch if the thing even hints at going against you, as the price will plunge very fast on any break of the short term trend, which we are now seeing rather clearly.

AAPL is singlehandedly owning my portfolio today.  X is still acting quite well, consolidating above its 50 day moving average, though I have no position and am unlikely to put one back on today since I would rather see the stock come back to $26, or break out above $28.50, before re-entering.  Coals such as PCX and ACI are also coiling right above their 50 day averages, and I would be interested in getting involved there, if and when they break above their recent consolidation ranges, at about $12.50 and $18.50 respectively.

Nothing else much going on today, save for the sunny southern California skies, so I'm going to go outside pretty soon! :sun:


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for November 9, 2011 - MCP, markets [Re: geokills]
    #15343640 - 11/09/11 07:55 AM (12 years, 2 months ago)

Whooieee, Europe dropped a bomb overnight when the Eu Central Bank raised margins on Italian debt, spiking their 10-year yield to 7%+, a level that signaled a failure to be able to obtain new credit for Greece and Portugal.  Italy is a much larger economy, and thus, a failure or need for coordinated bailouts in this country is a much larger problem than Greece has been (and as we know, Greece has roiled the markets pretty good in its own right).

Be very cautious.  Breadth on the New York Stock Exchange is 58 to 1 to the downside.  I peeled off my nearer term MCP call options for a 15% gain on its spike after the open, and ended up ditching my longer term MCP option later in the day for a $30 loss, as I don't feel like gambling on earnings, even though I think they will be positive.  I also sold a couple of out of the money weekly call options against my longer term calls in AMZN and AAPL, they expire in two days.

I don't anticipate doing anything else today, as it will likely take the market a little bit of time to digest this gelato bomb.  Definitely not comfortable making any big bets, but fairly comfortable with my current positioning:  AAPL, GLD, AMZN, AGNC, BIP, NLY


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Edited by geokills (11/09/11 11:54 AM)


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Re: Stock Update for November 9, 2011 - MCP, markets [Re: geokills]
    #15347476 - 11/09/11 10:19 PM (12 years, 2 months ago)

Yea man quite a bomb, I resisted the urge to buy on this dip, we'll see what tomorrow brings. I got rid of my TTWO today early on just over 16$ for a small profit. You were right about UXG, burnt me, stopped out with a loss. Just holding my 2 hi yielders (ARR, NLY) CLWR, PAET and YHOO. They all held up pretty well today, I'm not in much of a hurry to jump into anything new yet though. Hopefully that was all the turmoil, but I'm not holding my breath.

EDIT:11/10
Figure I'd just add to my old post. Another choppy day, a lot of up stocks and a lot of down. Looked into GMCR, after a drop like it had today I would think it has to bounce back up, but fears over the operation of the company may drive them lower. Dont want to get into a Netflix like stock.

Looked at AAPL today which fell for some reason? But still not low enough for me to get in, maybe if it gets down to the 370 range. I did add in VHC and MPEL on dips today. I dont know how smart it was, especially MPEL, dont really know what I was thinking there. I guess I wasnt. Technically it looks pretty bad. VHC I like fundamentally though and from the charts is looking ok to buy I think.


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"life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake."

Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep)
Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use..
How I do grain (old still good tips)
Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber
Casing layer colonization and overlay


Edited by scatmanrav (11/10/11 02:32 PM)


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Offlinesofa_king_happy
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Re: Stock Update for November 9, 2011 - MCP, markets [Re: scatmanrav]
    #15351969 - 11/10/11 06:56 PM (12 years, 2 months ago)

Tempted to throw some money into Nintendo stock. There's a new Zelda game coming out on Nov 18th. It got 10 out of 10 on reviews and there hasnt been a new game since the Wii launch.
  On the flip side the console has been hacked long ago and very easy for even a 12 year old to softmod and pirate the game. I believe the game will be leaked onto the web sometime this weekend and i don't want to risk that hurting the stock. So i shall wait until monday or after the leak for the stock to decline and then jump on the stock before the 18th and the media starts to report record sales :awesome:

  Also i anticipate with great hope an update on the "Wii U" console thing. It was showcased running this new Zelda game awhile back and price/release date have yet to be disclosed. My hopes are with the launch of this game an announcement will come regarding updated info/price/release date. :thumbup:


EDIT: Geokills whats your thoughts on Gold/Silver? theres been speculation that it will fall as people flock from the euro to the dollar. and then rise as they flock from the dollar to gold. Thoughts on this?


Edited by sofa_king_happy (11/10/11 07:13 PM)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for November 9, 2011 - MCP, markets [Re: sofa_king_happy]
    #15353011 - 11/10/11 10:26 PM (12 years, 2 months ago)

Re: Gold, I'm still holding (all profitable positions, both physical and long dated in the money call options on GLD).


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for November 9, 2011 - MCP, markets [Re: scatmanrav]
    #15353036 - 11/10/11 10:30 PM (12 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

scatmanrav said:

EDIT:11/10
Figure I'd just add to my old post. Another choppy day, a lot of up stocks and a lot of down. Looked into GMCR, after a drop like it had today I would think it has to bounce back up, but fears over the operation of the company may drive them lower. Dont want to get into a Netflix like stock.

Looked at AAPL today which fell for some reason? But still not low enough for me to get in, maybe if it gets down to the 370 range. I did add in VHC and MPEL on dips today. I dont know how smart it was, especially MPEL, dont really know what I was thinking there. I guess I wasnt. Technically it looks pretty bad. VHC I like fundamentally though and from the charts is looking ok to buy I think.




Stay away from GMCR, there is some speculation that they could have fudged their numbers, which is major bad juju and can absolutely smoke a stock in short order.

AAPL was down on an S&P downgrade of the stock from "Strong Buy" to "Buy", based on the idea that their market is facing increasing competition (e.g. Amazon Kindle, Droid phones, etc), and the loss of X-Factor Steve Jobs.  I'm not worried, I think sales of the 4S are going to be through the roof and this next quarter should be huge.  After that, if the company fails to announce compelling new products or product updates to the likes of the iPad and/or Mac, I will probably begin scaling back a little bit, though on a valuation basis with respect to their profitability, growth rate and cash reserves, the company is still ludicrously cheap.


Guys, please be careful.  The new focus on Italy is not something that was unexpected, I believe I spoke of contagion to Italy being a major threat to the global financial market, at least a couple of times over the past several weeks.  We are seeing that shift in attention now, and it is not to be dismissed.  This market is volatile, difficult to trade, and you should be able to recognize that there is little edge right here, as we are held hostage to the news headlines and even big money doesn't want to commit to longer term positions (hence the wild swings).

I've mostly been selling this week, but I was done with that as of Wednesday morning.  Now it's a wait and see game.  I would NOT expect the market to just take off and ramp to the upside, so the danger of missing such a move should not be your motivation to pile into stocks.  In fact, you really shouldn't be motivated to pile into stocks in this environment at all!  We are in no mans land, so don't go attempting to rationalize the irrational behavior of this market.  Keep an eye on 1225, 1215, and 1200 on the S&P 500, those are important levels that really need to hold if we are to expect continued upside.  If and when we begin to break those levels, you need to be taking an increasingly cautious stance.


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Edited by geokills (11/10/11 10:39 PM)


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Offlinescatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for November 9, 2011 - MCP, markets [Re: geokills]
    #15353128 - 11/10/11 10:49 PM (12 years, 2 months ago)

Yea thats what kept me out of GMCR.

Thanks for the words of caution, I'll try to head them.

I think sometimes when I look at charts I think, according to this it needs to go up now, because thats what it was doing, so I expect it to. The markets dont always do what they need to do/should do though.


--------------------
"life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake."

Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep)
Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use..
How I do grain (old still good tips)
Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber
Casing layer colonization and overlay


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for November 11, 2011 - AMZN, AAPL, MCP, SWKS, NVDA, X [Re: scatmanrav]
    #15354976 - 11/11/11 10:44 AM (12 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

The markets dont always do what they need to do/should do though




On the contrary, what if the market is always doing what it needs to do, for how could it do otherwise?  It is not conscious in and of itself, it is merely a reflection of money flow.  When there is heightened uncertainty, money flow is extremely volatile, reflecting a lack of confidence and conviction in direction and future outlook.  If you have a great degree of confidence and conviction in the future outlook in this environment, you must be fooling yourself!

On that note, the market is holding its gap higher from this mornings open.  AMZN is ripping, so I will close out my short $220 call for an 75% gain rather than waiting to see if it expires completely worthless at the end of the day, as I don't want the long side of my spread called away from me in the event AMZN closes at or above $220.  AAPL has also been beaten up as noted yesterday, but I believe in the success of their iPhone 4S and the continued dominance of their iPad in the tablet market, and thus believe that this is an appropriate place to begin building a position if you don't already own any.  I am not interested in adding, since I already own a chunk and would not be terribly surprised to see AAPL hitting $350 before resuming its longer term uptrend.

Good thing I rid myself of MCP earlier in the week.  Their earnings disappointed (attempting to game earnings is always a bit of a gamble!), with the stock down some 12% as I type.  To review, I decided to close this position predominantly because of the action in the aggregate market.  Sellers were outpacing buyers in a fierce way on Wednesday, and when the aggregate market sentiment is so poor, even good earnings could get sold into.  Feeling that the deck would be stacked against me either way, and because my position was leveraged through the use of options, it was prudent to take the risk of the table.

I won't be doing anything else actively today, though I am putting in a low ball bid for some options on Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), specifically the Jan 2013 $12.50 calls.  SWKS is cheap on a valuation basis when measured on its growth rate (PEG ratio of < 1), as well on an absolute PE basis when compared to its peers (16 vs 28).  Furthermore, the stock appears to be building a base right here at around $18, where buyers have consistently been stepping in over the past three months.  On a breakout above $22, I think SWKS goes much higher.

NVidia (NVDA) is similarly poised for upside, with similar low valuation respective to both its growth rate and its peers in the semiconductor industry.  It's also building a bit of a base, though this stock is more volatile and personally, I believe the future for Skyworks Solutions, who builds chips predominantly for the cellular data industry, has a more consistent future outlook due to its stronger leadership position, which would also explain its relative lack of volatility when compared with NVDA, who makes graphics related semiconductors.  I do however, think both stocks are looking good for intermediate to longer term positioning.  I am merely choosing to focus on SWKS because I have a better feel for it and I don't want to weight myself too heavily in the sector at this time, otherwise I would buy both!

I still like US Steel (X) as well, it's sitting right at support at its 50 day, which makes for a nice entry... however, I am weary to take on too much exposure ahead of the weekend given the tenuous situation in Italy, and therefore will not be re-opening a position in this name today.  Just wanted to point it out as I think it is worth keeping a close eye on, and if you have absolutely no exposure to the market but are looking for places to put some money, this is a viable option.

All the best! :toast:


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Edited by geokills (11/11/11 12:59 PM)


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Offlineben_dover0802
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Re: Stock Update for November 11, 2011 - AMZN, AAPL, MCP, SWKS, NVDA, X [Re: geokills]
    #15355134 - 11/11/11 11:20 AM (12 years, 2 months ago)

Hello peeps, I took a starter position in Auto Nation (AN) today.  I took this believing today's candlestick will be the short term low, so setting a stop right under it. 



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Re: Stock Update for November 11, 2011 - AMZN, AAPL, MCP, SWKS, NVDA, X [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #15402984 - 11/21/11 01:06 PM (12 years, 2 months ago)

Geokills, whats your thoughts on November 23
In particular the effects on gold, im on the fence to buy the day before of after the 23....


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for November 11, 2011 - AMZN, AAPL, MCP, SWKS, NVDA, X [Re: sofa_king_happy]
    #15405983 - 11/22/11 12:39 AM (12 years, 2 months ago)

It's a shortened holiday week, participation should be light and you should probably think about not thinking too much about the markets.  I don't see myself making much of anything that happens this week.

The market has been choppy as all get out for many months now.  The congressional "super committee" responsible for determining a better way to cut $1.2 trillion from the US Budget released a letter today during market hours indicating they could find no common ground for agreement, thus paving the way for predetermined forced cuts starting in 2013, half of which will affect the defense sector.  Oddly enough, this "we failed" memo resulted in the market rallying higher into the close of the day's trading.  Go figure.  Probably because market participants simply wanted some kind of temporary closure on that front, since there are already too many macro issues to worry about.  The memo put out today essentially defers the US spending debate for another year.  Caution is warranted however, as the potential for another ratings downgrade on US debt as a result of the continued political gridlock could shake up the market.

I think gold is at an appropriate level to build a position IF you are lacking exposure.  For those who already own a fair amount (myself included), I will be holding out for a deeper pullback to entice me to add to my existing position.  Otherwise, I am plenty cozy with my current exposure; so I won't feel like I am missing out if indeed this week ends up marking a bottom in the yellow metal.  But hey, if there's a bargain in the unforeseen future, I'll probably take advantage of it.

Succinctly, I am not making any big short term bets (or any short term bets, at all).  Even though I would expect to see some measure of a rally in the broader market starting tomorrow.  However, because I have family affairs throughout the balance of the week and the market will be closed for part of the week, I do not intend to be actively trading.


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Offlinescatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for November 11, 2011 - AMZN, AAPL, MCP, SWKS, NVDA, X [Re: geokills]
    #15408756 - 11/22/11 03:41 PM (12 years, 2 months ago)

"Oddly enough, this "we failed" memo resulted in the market rallying higher into the close of the day's trading.  Go figure."

This is what I meant when I was saying "The markets dont always do what they need to do/should do though". And like this on VHC:

"When VirnetX Holding (AMEX:VHC) reported earnings a week ago on November 9th, 2011, analysts, on average, expected the company to report a loss of $0.05 on sales of $1.0 thousand. VirnetX Holding actually reported earnings of $0.11 per share on sales of $3.0 thousand, beating EPS estimates by $0.16 and matching revenue estimates. Since the company's report, shares of VirnetX Holding have fallen from $21.51 to $21.05, representing a loss of 2.1% in the past 12 days."

I know my statement was simplistic but what you first think it should do, it doesnt always do. I've been dipping my toe in and getting it bit at so I'm just kind of holding my few small positions and waiting. Cant believe after that hard rally in October alot of stocks fell below that point again. The economic news is so frustrating right now!


--------------------
"life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake."

Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep)
Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use..
How I do grain (old still good tips)
Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber
Casing layer colonization and overlay


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for November 28, 2011 - A hidden QE3? [Re: geokills]
    #15434543 - 11/28/11 08:45 AM (12 years, 2 months ago)

Just wanted to stop in real quick to make a few comments.  Market gapped open huge this morning, after losing 7% in November (10.3% from its Oct highs), and completing a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from its Oct 4th lows to its Oct 27th highs.  All that shows is that the market was technically ready for a bounce.  The catalyst that really juiced the market this morning was a conglomerate of news:
  • Black Friday/Weekend retail sales numbers were pretty much the best they've ever been.
  • Italian bonds strengthened as hopes strengthened for a bailout package.
  • The Fed has covertly implemented a form of QE3 (without calling it that), by purchasing around half a trillion dollars worth of mortgage backed securities.


This is almost the perfect storm for a strong move, and while I am not buying the gap higher this morning, because I simply do not have the time to babysit my positions during the coming weeks (or even today for that matter), I am holding some core positions in AAPL, AMZN, GLD, and a handful of high yielders.  Though there hasn't been any significant buying since we opened this morning (about one hour ago as of this writing), the market has been holding the gap, which is a feat in and of itself given that we moved higher 3% at the open, which makes follow on buying not for the faint of heart.  It seems likely that we will grind sideways for a bit while we digest the move.  However, market internals are strongly bullish, so it seems that at least for the near term, the path of least resistance is to the upside and I would expect intraday pullbacks to be bought, even if they probably won't be bought aggressively on the heels of such a huge opening.

I do not advocate buying a lot here (I'm not buying anything), but if you have no exposure and have been making a shopping list, today would not be a bad day to take some small initial positions in those names that you wanted a piece of.  If we continue to rise, you can add to these names from a position of strength.  If we fall back, your stop would be below Friday's lows and you won't lose much (so long as you manage your position size appropriately).  The metal & mining sector is showing relative strength today: X, PCX.  In tech land, NVDA has been clawing its way higher all morning, AMZN is seeing a nice bounce, FFIV and NFLX have moved markedly higher.  Gold is also very strong.

All the best!


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for December 13, 2011 [Re: geokills]
    #15509507 - 12/13/11 09:29 AM (12 years, 1 month ago)

Been a while since I've posted an update, and since I just responded to a PM on the subject, I figured I'd also post a copy of my response here, so anyone who follows this thread will know of my general sentiment.

Quote:

Unfortunately, the volatility and choppiness of this market makes a 3 to 4 month outlook way more than short term.  Short term in this market is intraday.  Put plainly, with all of the uncertainty stemming from Europe, fear of a weakened consumer in the US, and slowing growth in China, there isn't a whole lot to be bullish about and I would be very cautious about expecting to make a decent return in the next 3 to 4 month period.

Frankly, I have withdrawn most of my money from active participation in stocks until we see the re-emergence of a well defined aggregate market trend; with the exception of a few high yielding stocks intended to be held for their dividend over longer periods of time (e.g. AGNC, NLY, BIP), all of which are already 8-20%+ above my cost basis in addition to their whopping dividends.  I also hold a chunk of AAPL and a larger chunk of gold.  But even AAPL I am hedging for downside by selling out of the money call options with the expectation that the stock won't just rocket higher in the short term.  Note: If you are new to investing, DO NOT TRADE OPTIONS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.

This market is very tough.  Be very cautious and only put money in, that you can afford to lose!  Sorry that I can't be more enthusiastic, but it is what it is, and when it comes to your money, it pays to be realistic.

Good luck,
~Mike




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Offlinescatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for December 13, 2011 [Re: geokills]
    #15527909 - 12/16/11 08:07 PM (12 years, 1 month ago)

Yep Ive been staying away too. Finally have learned to not jump in all the time. Been holding some RAI, ARR, and NLY, two high yielders and a tobacco company thats been going up over time. All of the tobacco sector has been doing well. I've hopped in and out of Yahoo too twice now over the last few weeks, buy at just under 15 and sell at just over 16, just bought some more today since it dipped below 15.


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Stock Update for January 18, 2012 - RIG, AMZN, WLT [Re: geokills]
    #15684448 - 01/18/12 04:39 PM (12 years, 13 days ago)

A New Year breeds new opportunity.  Old themes morph into new themes and January is an important month to watch, in efforts to see where big money may be rotating in anticipation of the year ahead.  While there is still a lot of headline risk out there from Europe and the generally poor economic climate, it does seems like the markets have stabilized a bit.  The Chinese market in particular appears to be gaining some strength over the past several sessions, which is an important barometer for the global economy since they are the de facto engine for most of the world's production, and thus a pretty decent gauge of the world's economic activity.  Also important to take note, US financial and housing stocks have been catching bids and are starting to move higher.  This is classic "early cycle" behavior, and a sign that those with discretionary funds looking to invest, should have at least some skin in the game here and now.

In accordance with this view, I have put some money to work this week in the following stocks...

  • Transocean (RIG) - Long common stock & Feb $40 calls



    This stock has been under pressure for many months, but since early December, looks to have been
    putting in a solid base at around $38 - $40.  This long basing process has allowed the 50 day moving
    average to come down to meet the current price, all while a volatility squeeze has developed as well.
    You all know how I feel about volatility squeezes, especially when they begin to expand at a stock's
    50 day moving average... thus, I am quite handily long in anticipation of seeing this squeeze carry
    RIG to around $46.  Of course, because I am so long, I am managing my risk by setting stop levels
    on my call options, such that if RIG falls below $42, the options leg of my position will be closed.  As
    the stock moves higher, so will my stop levels.



  • Amazon (AMZN) - Long common stock and looking for a better entry on Jan 2013 $140 calls



    Another stock that has taken a healthy beating over the past few months, with some basing action
    taking place throughout the later half of December and early January.  Today we see that the stock
    is pushing out of a volatility squeeze that could allow it to break through the 50 and 200 day moving
    averages that loom very near overhead.  I am only long common stock, but if we see a pullback
    to $185, and the stock does not meaningfully break below today's intraday low, I will likely add a
    long dated deep in the money call option to my position.



  • Walter Energy (WLT) - Long Jan 2013 $55 calls



    This stock has seen some massive volume spikes during the past week, indicating a pretty solid floor
    being put into place by the big money who has been soaking up this stock anytime it gets near $57.
    Since the company has good revenue growth, cash flow and a low valuation, it seems like most of
    the damage should be done and indeed this stock could even be a takeover target.  The catalyst that
    resulted in my taking this trade, was when the company released a statement on Monday indicating
    reduced production guidance, and yet the stock has not gone down on the seemingly negative news.


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··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Edited by geokills (01/18/12 11:55 PM)


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