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sofa_king_happy
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Re: Stock Update for October 26, 2011 - AMZN [Re: scatmanrav]
#15286965 - 10/27/11 04:08 PM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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ben_dover0802
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Re: Stock Update for October 26, 2011 - AMZN [Re: sofa_king_happy]
#15287417 - 10/27/11 05:50 PM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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Lol, that's funny but you could put nearly any stock in silvers place today. I have taken a break from trading, but this is looking like a good time to start again. The market is breaking out big time. I didn't have the "balls" to buy anything today, after such a huge broad market run, I am going to wait for the pullback. One thing that was super cool is I had a small position in LNG, a natural gas company, over Tuesday night, i sold it for a 60% increase on Wednesday , if only I had bought even a mediocre position...
My current positions are NLY, AGNC (two dividend stocks I bought many months ago), and GLD, which I bought on Tuesday as I noticed it was breaking out as Geo already mentioned. Sitting in mainly cash now, waiting for a good buying opportunity.
Excited to start trading again!
Edited by ben_dover0802 (10/27/11 05:55 PM)
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scatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for October 26, 2011 - AMZN [Re: ben_dover0802]
#15288004 - 10/27/11 07:45 PM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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I bought in on the slight drop two days ago. MITK and DISH didnt do well but the rest have made up for it. ARR, NLY and CS I have been in for a bit. GNK, TZOO, STMP and HIG all looked good to me and I got in them on the drop. TZOO, STMP, HIG and CS were all big gainers. See what happens tomorrow but I feel like theres gonna be a good bit more uptrend still going into next week.
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DieCommie

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Re: Stock Update for October 26, 2011 - AMZN [Re: ben_dover0802]
#15288096 - 10/27/11 08:05 PM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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I bought a bunch of AGNC today. Ive been looking to buy some more for a while, this morning seemed like a good time with their stock offering lowering the price.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for October 26, 2011 - AMZN [Re: DieCommie]
#15290186 - 10/28/11 09:47 AM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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Hard for me to buy anything today heading into the weekend with the market already so overbought... but the metals and miners, and steel in particular, are acting really well. US Steel (X) is breaking out of a volatility squeeze while re-taking its 50 day moving average. This typically leads to a powerful sustained upside move during the weeks ahead.

Arch Coal (ACI) is also exhibiting a similarly sexy pattern.

Be mindful that we should be seeing some measure of a pullback here, though it will likely be short lived, as a lot of people (myself included) were not as long as they would have preferred to be for this tremendous move higher over the past several weeks, and therefore have been pining for a pullback in order to enter positions. It is therefore telling, that any pullbacks thus far have been so small, indicating that there is quite a bit of sidelined money trying to find its way into the market. Set your alerts, and be ready to build or add to positions on weakness. If you are playing a short move off of these levels, don't overstay your welcome!
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scatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for October 26, 2011 - AMZN [Re: geokills]
#15290326 - 10/28/11 10:24 AM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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Another good day, I am finally getting a little confidence here. I almost gave up completely when I got into FAZ, expecting the market to drop. I've lost quite a bit of money since I started this thing, although the last two days the gains (though unrelized so far) were a quarter of my losses made back. Most of it came from STMP. I fully expected more good earnings results and got them. I wonder if I should get out? I kinda want to be in, I think its gonna pull back some and then back up like its been doing. I dont know if its worth it to get out and back in.
DISH has been a big loser. Overall it hasnt affected my portfolio even a bit, but why keep a loser? But its down so much isnt it going to bounce? Tough decision, I hate to sell lower then I bought if I think its gonna go back up but maybe I'm missing something in the stock that says its heading lower? This is the one I'm thinking about the most.
CS is my only other loser today, by a tiny bit, but I expected it since it was my big winner yesterday. TZOO is a big winner again, still uptrending since OCT 1 and a lot of room to grow, if it keeps going.
HIG looks like it might dip again, I might sell it before the day is out, got a good gain on it yesterday but it might be the only one. MITK is bouncing up now. My REITs are back up to their normal level after that weird dip they had. I'll watch all my charts for the day though and see but I think I'm going to hold most of what I have since I got it all at the lowest points 3 days ago and I dont think any pullback will go back below those levels.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for October 26, 2011 - AMZN [Re: scatmanrav]
#15290398 - 10/28/11 10:51 AM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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I could be wrong, but I get the feeling from your posts that you are trying to manage too many positions at once. For someone new to investing (and even to those who are seasoned), taking on too many positions can be a recipe for disaster as it makes it more difficult to make quick decisions when quick decisions are necessary to preserve capital or capitalize on opportunity. Markets move fast, and if you're trying to wrap your head around what is going on with too many positions all at once, you will have a hard time making clear decisions derived from objective analysis rather than emotional response.
Keep it simple! Focus on your favorites. If something isn't acting well, especially if it is losing you money, get rid of it. Not only will it stem the bleeding, it will be an immense relief to rid yourself of the emotional baggage that comes with a losing position, which in turn will allow you to see the rest of the market with a clearer head. Remember, you can always buy it back later!
Summary: Do not trade hyper-actively. Wait for opportunity to present itself to you rather than chasing it. Define your risk and use a combination of position size and stop levels to manage that risk. Most importantly, do not hesitate to get out if the position turns against you beyond your predetermined level of maximum acceptable risk.
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ben_dover0802
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Re: Stock Update for October 26, 2011 - AMZN [Re: scatmanrav]
#15290455 - 10/28/11 11:12 AM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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Congrats on STMP!
As for when to sell, I would at least hold it for the rest of the day, it looks to be trickling higher and as of right now, 1:00 Eastern time, near the high of the day. I would look at it near the close of the day and maybe take a portion of profits off the table. If you keep all your stock or some, it would be a good idea to set a stop because its going up pretty much exponentially, and can do down quickly too.
I actually did buy a little stock today. Bought a 1/2 position of Amazon (AMZN) @ 213.29. The market is pretty overbought, but this stock looks very strong, bouncing off established support and it looks like it will soon be higher, especially going into the holiday season.
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scatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for October 26, 2011 - AMZN [Re: ben_dover0802]
#15290907 - 10/28/11 01:04 PM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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You are not wrong, I knew I bought into to many positions. And it put me into about 1% cash too, when 3 days ago I was about 80% cash. I do however spend at least 2 hours a day, usually 4-6 on tuesdays and fridays, and I have about 20 pages of notes on all the different stocks I watch, with a full page on every stock I buy (though not full pages). I am really trying not to be emotional.
I havnt made a move for two weeks or so (except for TZA and SDS which killed me of course) because I wasnt thinking enough before. It is very hard to follow all of them intraday, but I at least have put alot of thought into them and waited as they developed uptrends (if werent in one already) and then waited for a dip. Its just so hard because I look at stocks and I see potential in alot of them. Alot of them are way down right now, and have room to grow. They all become my "favorites". I have 10 more stocks I'd put money into too, but I narrowed it down to my favorites, still ended up into to many positions.
Some of them though, like the REITs I'm not even watching. Just holding as an investment, mainly watching for huge drops. I do think having a written notebook to refer to which has "buy at this price, strong buy below this price, support, resistence, watch if drops this high or this low" notes, ect. Then I can just check my lists and see where its at vs where I thought it was going and where I want to be.
I'm sure I couldve invested in two less (MITK and DISH) and put more money into TZOO and STMP which I felt the best about. Its difficult trying to figure out how to make money in the market with only a little to invest. All of my positions are in the 200-500 dollar range so buying and selling fees weigh heavily on me, I've been looking more for stocks I can hold onto for a longer period that will make up the 14 or more dollars to buy and sell. I mean a 280 dollar investment needs to go up 5% for me to break even and 10% for me to make 14 dollars.
All in all though I'm just a younger guy and all this figuring and betting on what you think is going to happen is all part of the thrill of it. Right now I know I'm all in, big bets out there, but its diversified and thought about more then my other decisions, so to me, thats a win.
Edited by scatmanrav (10/28/11 01:06 PM)
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sofa_king_happy
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Re: Stock Update for October 26, 2011 - AMZN [Re: scatmanrav]
#15300141 - 10/30/11 04:21 PM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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Monday its going in TTWO Grand Theft Auto 5 trailer coming out on wedensday, hype hype hype it up!
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scatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for October 26, 2011 - AMZN [Re: sofa_king_happy]
#15307901 - 11/01/11 08:49 AM (12 years, 2 months ago) |
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Looks like a good one TTWO, I just joined you on it a bit since it spiked down and is coming back this morning, always been a fan of GTA. The last time GTA came out in 08, the stock surged over 25 pretty well. Plus its got some good uptrends going, since aug, since the begining of the year, and really even since 09 after the 08 crash.
I sold out of most of my big gainer positions on Friday, which is good since yesterday and today they got stomped on in pullback pretty good. Wish I got rid of a few other things too, but still a good week. Things look like they hit bottom this morning and are trying to pull back up, since theres no real reason for the pullback other then cashing in profits from last week, I am getting back into STMP, TZOO and I got back into CS, but I'm holding off on STMP and TZOO, see what theyre doing tomorrow since they're looking a bit to iffy right this minute.
Still have GNK, ARR, and NLY. A lot of different positions still, but down to 7 from 8 and I want to be rid of GNK this week also. DISH and MITK were my bad picks, at least timing wise. Got rid of them for losses today, nothing major though.
We'll see what the rest of the week brings, hopefully gains.
Edited by scatmanrav (11/01/11 10:58 AM)
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sofa_king_happy
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Re: Stock Update for October 26, 2011 - AMZN [Re: scatmanrav]
#15308701 - 11/01/11 12:44 PM (12 years, 2 months ago) |
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^ i too ended up waiting until today to get into TTWO  ..How long do you plan to keep your shares?
also i noticed one news article stating they have a large amount of debt, perhaps from developing this new big game?
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geokills
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Stock Update for November 1, 2011 - X, GLD, AMZN [Re: geokills]
#15308854 - 11/01/11 01:20 PM (12 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said last week:
Hard for me to buy anything today heading into the weekend with the market already so overbought... but the metals and miners, and steel in particular, are acting really well. US Steel (X) is breaking out of a volatility squeeze while re-taking its 50 day moving average. This typically leads to a powerful sustained upside move during the weeks ahead.
US Steel (X) is in the midst of an incomplete volatility expansion. These typically progress in three phases. First, you need a volatility squeeze, which is evidenced by range bound price action that causes the bollinger bands to narrow. Phase one of the expansion is the initial breakout on high volume, phase two is a pull back on lighter volume to test the general breakout region, and phase three is when the initial squeeze level is confirmed as support and from there, a continuation of the breakout. A move above the phase 1 breakout high will typically serve as a valuable confirmation signal that phase 3 is for real, and is a good point to add to your position while raising your stops. I generally like to buy a little bit on phase 1 (if I'm quick enough), then set alerts for a pull back and buy more on the phase 2 pull back. At that point, I'm usually at about 1/2 to 2/3 position size. Then if we move above the phase 1 breakout high, which would indicate phase 3 continuation, I buy another bunch to bring myself up to a full position size.
The Anatomy of a Volatility Squeeze/Expansion

The fact that X gapped down this morning, right into the heart of the volatility squeeze that had developed during the later half of October, and was immediately bought, is an encouraging sign and an appropriate buy signal (I bought Dec $25 call options today). The fact that the XME metals & mining ETF is also bouncing after a hard gap down this morning, and right above both its 50 and 20 day moving averages, reinforces the idea that the breakout in X has the potential to move on to phase 3, since the entire sector is generally under accumulation.
I also increased my exposure to GLD, since it is showing a similar bounce off of its 20 day moving average, with the consolidation over the past two sessions on light volume relative to the phase 1 breakout that occurred Oct 25th - 27th.
In tech land I picked up a little bit of AMZN, because it is handily out performing almost everything else today, so it would stand to reason that if the market firms up, AMZN will not be giving any better entries. As I discussed after their earnings disappointment last week, their sales were not bad, they just had extremely high expenses in anticipation of future growth which ate into their profit margin (these expenses were primarily related to opening new fulfillment centers at a pace not seen since the early 2000's, as well as the development of the Kindle Fire tablet which thus far is being positively received).
It looks like the market is softening up a little bit here in the last hour of trading, and we do have FOMC and ADP employment reports tomorrow, so don't go nuts on me! But for what it's worth, I am looking at this as an opportunity to take on a little bit of risk. Definitely not full tilt, and definitely with defined risk!
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Bambi
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Re: Stock Update for November 1, 2011 - X, GLD, AMZN [Re: geokills]
#15309448 - 11/01/11 04:04 PM (12 years, 2 months ago) |
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So today i was looking at ttwo and ocz for entry points. When is the best time to buy during the day?/What generally define the days low? I know that signs of support and/or resistance can help determine that, but at what time frame should one look to find the best signs when looking at such a small amount of time. I suppose i just have a hard time buying when i think that the stock will drop lower that day and end up missing a prime buying opportunity.
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ZippoZ
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Re: Stock Update for November 1, 2011 - X, GLD, AMZN [Re: geokills]
#15309734 - 11/01/11 05:16 PM (12 years, 2 months ago) |
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Hey Geo, thought you might be interested in these charts, they are recent as of today,

Basically, Iron ore supply is WAY up thanks to new production coming online, and steel products demand is down, and there is a fair amount of excess inventory sitting around.
spot iron prices erased about a years worth of gains in the last month and a half.
im not exactly sure how this will effect X stock, or if it is priced in, but IMO, it does not look good for american based steel companies.
-------------------- PEACE
zippoz "in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption" "People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it."
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scatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for November 1, 2011 - X, GLD, AMZN [Re: ZippoZ]
#15309933 - 11/01/11 06:11 PM (12 years, 2 months ago) |
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"..How long do you plan to keep your shares?"
I really dont know how long. I expect tomorrow to see some action in the stock and I expect to see then. I also want to know how far off a release date is. At some point after the trailer is released, there will be excitement at first and then worries. Someone always has complaints or worries about a new product coming out. If the game is a long way off from release I probably wont hold it until then, especially if it happens to shoot up at the end of this week. I'll probably put it up here though when I do something with it, I always hope my experiences will help someone, even if its what not to do.
Geokills, I understand volatility squeezes now though, so thanks! I have seen the pattern and watched for it, never knew the name for it or the exacts behind it. Handy.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for November 1, 2011 - X, GLD, AMZN [Re: Bambi]
#15310812 - 11/01/11 08:58 PM (12 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
Bambi said:
So today i was looking at ttwo and ocz for entry points. When is the best time to buy during the day?/What generally define the days low? I know that signs of support and/or resistance can help determine that, but at what time frame should one look to find the best signs when looking at such a small amount of time. I suppose i just have a hard time buying when i think that the stock will drop lower that day and end up missing a prime buying opportunity.
Unfortunately, there is no hard and fast rule to answer your question. Generally speaking, I look at longer term time frames (weekly charts) to determine whether I believe a given stock is investible (good for a longer term holding) rather than tradable (good for a quicker flip). If it is an investible stock (i.e. if it displays a well defined trend on a longer term chart), I then use the daily chart as my action time frame; in other words, watching for the stock to come close to some level of support that has proven relevant in the stock's recent history, often (but not always) its 20 or 50 day moving average.
On the other hand, if I am considering day trading a stock, I will use the daily chart as my decision time frame, and watch the intraday chart as my action time frame. This gets a little more tricky, so I will just say that if you are looking to trade on an intraday basis, you should generally use a 15 minute candlestick chart with an 8 period exponential moving average as your reference for whether or not the intraday trend remains intact. Why these numbers? Because they are the numbers that the floor traders at the NYSE use (and those guys move a lot of stock!). When a stock trades above or below its first 15 minute candle of the day, it is often signaling an intraday direction. So long as it continues to trade on that side of its 8 period EMA, it is right to hold the stock for a directional continuation (long OR short) of the trend on an intraday basis. If the stock breaks through its 8 period EMA in a meaningful way, this may signal a reversal which would imply that the intraday directional trade has likely run its course and you should close the position.
To emphasize, this is a very general answer to a very complex and trader-specific question. Your mileage may vary! You would also do well to remember that there is really no point in trying to bottom or top tick a stock, because you'll drive yourself bat-shit crazy in the process. So long as you can identify a prevailing trend, you should be plenty happy to catch the middle 50% - 80% of any given move.
Quote:
ZippoZ said: Hey Geo, thought you might be interested in these charts, they are recent as of today,

Thanks for the charts ZippoZ. Given that iron is a raw input material for steel production, a supply glut could be good for the producers of high quality steel as it will lower their production overhead. On the other hand, I do understand that there must be a reason for the price of iron ore to have declined, which could very well implicate a reduced demand for one of its largest uses, namely steel. That being said, it looks like the iron spot price really began its acceleration to the downside in late July. US Steel's stock has also pretty much been cut in half since that time as well, and therefore I could believe that the move is in fact priced in.
I am choosing to trade US Steel not on a fundamental basis (because other than a few select tech stocks, there are too many cross currents to have much confidence in longer term fundamentals or the global economic outlook), and am instead trading the chart pattern. Given where the stock is currently poised, I know that below $23, my thesis for the volatility expansion is in serious jeopardy, and I should exit the trade. That's equates to a risk of $1.50 or 6% from today's close, which I am comfortable with given my position size.
Now let's put on our helmets and buckle up. The Greek situation seems to be primed to continue roiling the markets, and with ADP jobs numbers and the FOMC interest rate decision coming out tomorrow, probability points to a very volatile day. Generally speaking, with all of this headline risk, it is not a good time to make any major bets. Of course as you know, I am leaning a bit to the long side going into this... fully cognizant of the fact that I could be burned! Fortunately, I have entered my existing positions close to support (most are already profitable), and therefore shouldn't lose too much if I am proven wrong. The key to being a successful trader is being able to clearly define your risk, plan your trades and trade your plan. Discipline is paramount, whereas trading on emotion has spelled the end of several unfortunate soul's life savings. Remember that taking losses is a necessary part of being involved in the stock market. Also remember that taking BIG losses, is not!
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scatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for November 1, 2011 - X, GLD, AMZN [Re: geokills]
#15311324 - 11/01/11 10:35 PM (12 years, 2 months ago) |
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Where do you find the best stock/financial news sources to be?
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for November 1, 2011 - X, GLD, AMZN [Re: scatmanrav]
#15311437 - 11/01/11 11:02 PM (12 years, 2 months ago) |
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Typical morning routine:- Check S&P Futures and CNBC Web Headlines, S&P Morning Briefing (emailed daily from TD Ameritrade)
- Sometimes tune in to ShadowTrader broadcast through TD Amertrade Think or Swim at 6:15am pacific time
- Check the forums at StockMarketMentor.com and OptionMarketMentor.com
Typical nightly routine:- CNBC Web Headlines
- StockMarketMentor Mon-Thurs Strategy Session Videos & Weekend Update
- Investors.com and TheStreet.com's RealMoney can offer some perspective (but in truth, I no longer use these due to time constraint).
I also set anywhere from 2 - 20 alerts in a day for various levels on various stocks and indexes, often with accompanying notes that get sent to my cell phone as a text message (or popped up on my screen) when triggered, to remind me why I set the alert in the first place. The TD Ameritrade Think or Swim platform is great for this feature. I also make an effort to regularly monitor company specific news on any positions I have open.
To note, I practically never watch the CNBC broadcast these days. Typically it's just a circus of buffoons talking their own book!
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Edited by geokills (11/02/11 08:50 AM)
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Bambi
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Re: Stock Update for November 1, 2011 - X, GLD, AMZN [Re: geokills]
#15311738 - 11/02/11 12:40 AM (12 years, 2 months ago) |
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Thanks for the advice man, i appreciate it. I know there isnt really anything concrete, but just having suggestions help. Gives me more things to try in order to find what suits me. I really need to start looking for resistance and support points in order to set some alerts and also figure out how to send them to my phone. I have really enjoyed reading this thread and the advice from it as i can definitely notice a difference in my stock skills since i stared in mid July.
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