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scatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for October 14, 2011 [Re: Anonymous]
#15225025 - 10/14/11 01:24 PM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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What do you think about closed ended funds? CLM is one I've had on my watchlists, mainly as a dividend payer. It doesnt have much upside in the short term, but a long term, if the market turns up (for my watch lists) could it get back up to the 27, 37, 65 dollar peaks?
I dont fully understand how CEFs work. As I get it, there are only a certain number of shares issued, in this case it looks like 8.6 million right? So this would cause more of a supply and demand issue, so right now the stock is undervalued because it is lower then when it started? Meaning long term it should go back up at some point? I am not thinking of getting into this anytime soon, just trying to understand it and think about it when the market is looking better.
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sofa_king_happy
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Re: Stock Update for October 14, 2011 [Re: scatmanrav]
#15237831 - 10/17/11 10:29 AM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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EDIT: and sold SLV on friday
Edited by sofa_king_happy (10/17/11 11:33 AM)
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Bambi
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Quote:
sofa_king_happy said: Just bought some shares of Ocean Power Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:OPTT)
EDIT: and sold SLV on friday 
Now out of curiosity, why did you buy OPTT today?
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"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben
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Anonymous
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Quote:
sofa_king_happy said: Just bought some shares of Ocean Power Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:OPTT)
EDIT: and sold SLV on friday 
Yeah, i sold my SLV on friday too, which is down over a percent today...
and that CDE stock I sold on friday was a GREAT move, as its down over 5% today already.
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sofa_king_happy
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Re: Stock Update for October 14, 2011 [Re: Bambi]
#15238053 - 10/17/11 11:32 AM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
Bambi said:
Quote:
sofa_king_happy said: Just bought some shares of Ocean Power Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:OPTT)
EDIT: and sold SLV on friday 
Now out of curiosity, why did you buy OPTT today?
Already sold it
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geokills
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Stock Update for October 17, 2011 - GS, AAPL, SPY [Re: geokills]
#15238763 - 10/17/11 02:28 PM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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The market was way overbought going into the weekend, which makes today's selloff fairly expected, though the magnitude of the downside pressure was heavier than I would have anticipated. Fortunately, I did get filled on a low ball bid of SPY Puts at Friday's close; unfortunately, it was a small position. I have been adding additional SPY Puts throughout the day today, with the expectation that we are likely to see more weakness over the coming weeks. I closed my short $435 call on AAPL today, because they report earnings tomorrow after market and I do not expect them to disappoint. Therefore, I will wait until earnings and attempt to short some higher strike calls on any pop, in order to take in more premium. If we don't get a pop, well at least there's a whole lot of time and profit left on my Jan 2013 $305 call.
GS earnings tomorrow before the bell and AAPL earnings after the bell, can be fairly major events for the market, so keep an eye on those two.
I purchased a $100 lottery ticket on GS via a quartet of Oct $110 call options (that expire in 5 days), just in case by some miraculous event they are able to report great earnings and the stock pops tomorrow morning. I'm doing this because the stock is in a little bit of a volatility squeeze and has not really "run up" into earnings. The lack of positive anticipation ahead of earnings increases the probability that a positive surprise will result in a big pop for the stock. On the other hand, if GS tanks, that $100 I spent on the weekly calls will be worthless in no time, but the position is small enough and I know full well going in, that it is just a lottery ticket.
Positions: Cash, AAPL Jan 2013 $305 call, AGNC, BIP, NLY, SPY Nov $110 and $120 puts, GS Oct $110 call
If we pop tomorrow, I will be bidding on a handful of Dec $100 SPY puts
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for October 17, 2011 - GS, AAPL, SPY [Re: geokills]
#15242364 - 10/18/11 09:50 AM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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Lottery ticket on GS closed for 50% loss. Bought some puts on AMZN and LULU. Reduced put exposure on the SPY. Generally positioned fairly flat, I still think we'll get more of a pull back, but do not see any serious edge right here, right now. The market is at resistance, had a great run over the last couple of weeks, and is running into its 200 day exponential moving average; not to mention the issues plaguing Europe in addition to slowing growth in China, which is all tied in to global markets.
On the other hand, we have banks like GS reporting bad earnings, and that stock is being bought today. BAC reported decent earnings, and they're being bought even more aggressively. Home builders are also rocking after some positive data this morning and gold and silver fell out of bed, only to claw their way back up. The action on the day is quite bullish, but the fundamental backdrop is so murky that I can't wrap my head around why there seems to be so much buying. Strange indeed, and when I am confused, I am more than happy to reduce my exposure and wait until I gain more clarity.
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shr
all hail discordia



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Re: Stock Update for October 17, 2011 - GS, AAPL, SPY [Re: geokills]
#15243697 - 10/18/11 04:51 PM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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how does GS go up when they miss earnings like that? i got into faz yesterday expecting banks to tank.
maybe i just need to stay away from financials, i feel like market manipulation is probably pretty common with these stocks
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for October 17, 2011 - GS, AAPL, SPY [Re: shr]
#15245005 - 10/18/11 10:00 PM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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Stocks will go up after negative earnings for two primary (potential) reasons:
- The bad news had already been priced in (expected) ahead of time, exhibited by the stock being in a fairly long term downtrend prior to reporting earnings. While earnings may be bad, they may not have been as bad as some of the major managers were anticipating.
- Indications or anticipation of a forward looking turn around, say within the next 6 - 18 months.
"financial stocks ... market manipulation"
The thing with the financials is that there is no reasonable way to value these companies on account of the tremendous loads of derivative hogwash they carry on their balance sheets. There isn't even a market for some of the stuff on their books, so how is anyone to really know whether they are even solvent, let alone what their appropriate valuation should be? Financials, in my opinion, should be used for trading only (or at most, a very small long term piece of your portfolio, I'm talkin' 5% or less). We need to see a resolution to the EU financial crisis and some measure of domestic job growth before the sector becomes palatable for longer term investors.
Apple missed their earnings expectations and is indicated down some 7% after market. Should've known that iPhone sales would be light in anticipation of the new iPhone release (lord knows I kept holding on to my 3GS for this exact reason!). The fact that they sold over 4 million iPhone 4S phones during the first weekend on sale screams monster quarter coming up... so I would look at the immediate weakness as a buying opportunity, and as soon as I see the stock finding some support, I will be a buyer myself. iPad sales more than doubled (+166%) and Mac sales were up 26%. Holiday season is upcoming, really... what's not to like? I'm looking at this as a blessing, despite the hit that my retirement account holdings will be taking tomorrow morning. If AAPL gets to $350 (which I don't think it will), I would consider it to be a screaming buy.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for October 17, 2011 - GS, AAPL, SPY [Re: geokills]
#15246506 - 10/19/11 09:56 AM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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Market continues to chop around at the top of the range. Anticipation of an EU resolution to increase funding to their Euro Financial Stability Facility (EFSF aka Euro Zone rescue fund) was in large part responsible for the strong move yesterday. Surprisingly, the market is holding those gains today even in the face of outright denials from the German finance ministry, stating that the facility will not receive more than the 440 billion euros that have already been approved (over 200 billion of which, Germany is directly responsible for). Apparently, the market is wanting to call their bluff. The conjecture is that 2 trillion euros is the mark to aim for on the EFSF, in order to avert catastrophe in the Euro zone that could stem from a Greek default and the subsequent domino effect. On that note, I practically bottom ticked a lot of Dec $100 SPY puts at the close yesterday with a good-til-canceled order that I had put on earlier in the week. I am also staying short LULU via Nov $45 puts so long as the stock stays below $52.50.
I did also pick up some more AAPL at the open, via Jan 2012 $400 calls. Unfortunately, I also fumbled a really aggressive trade using the weekly options on AAPL this morning; I ended up losing 40% on the weeklies in a matter of minutes, even though there was a 1181% swing within the first 90 minutes of trading on the $415 call contracts I was playing! While it sucks to have taken a loss on something that could have potentially been a grand slam home run, it was a valuable lesson that was learned the hard way: Aggressive short term options trades should never be put on until after the first 5 minutes of opening trade have completed, thereby providing a reference action point at the 5 minute low/high, and subsequently, the necessary information for appropriately placing intraday stops. The opening is always chaotic, the price dislocations are significantly larger, and I should have known better. Fortunately, the Jan 2012 $400 calls I bought offset my loss on the weeklies. Still, a bit of a bummer. But no sense dwelling on the past!
Positions: Cash, AAPL Jan 2013 $305 and Jan 2012 $400 calls, AGNC, BIP, NLY, SPY Dec $100 puts, LULU Nov $45 puts
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geokills
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Stock Update for October 25, 2011 - GLD [Re: geokills]
#15275801 - 10/25/11 11:15 AM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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Buying Gold. Looks like we may be in for a volatility expansion. Silver also looks good.

Position update: Cash, AAPL, GLD, NTAP, AGNC, BIP, NLY, Short SPY via Puts
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qman
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Re: Stock Update for October 25, 2011 - GLD [Re: geokills]
#15275819 - 10/25/11 11:18 AM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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Consider some GDXJ, small cap gold and silver shares ready to breakout, the best bang for your buck!!!!
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sofa_king_happy
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Re: Stock Update for October 25, 2011 - GLD [Re: qman]
#15277486 - 10/25/11 05:38 PM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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Geokills, why NTAP? what are your expectations/plans for it?
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for October 25, 2011 - GLD [Re: qman]
#15278277 - 10/25/11 08:12 PM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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Thanks qman for pointing out GDXJ, very nice volume bar today, though technically not as pretty as GLD, since GLD has already started to fill its late September gap by breaking out of its two month trading range. On a move above $31.60, GDXJ will be in the same boat, but for right now, it is ever so slightly lagging. I have generally become shy of the miners, since there are so many variables above and beyond the spot price of gold (just look at what happened to AEM last week when geologic forces resulted in the shuttering of one of their mines, possibly forever). Thus, while I agree that minors and junior minors in particular, can move farther in a faster period of time than spot gold, it's just easier for me to wrap my head around the plain old gold spot, where I can still obtain outsized gains through the diligent use of options leverage.
sofa_king - on NTAP - I like the sector they operate in, namely data storage and cloud computing solutions, which is in a secular growth cycle. While their earnings have not been blow out of late, they are still growing, and I believe the recent pull back that began in February has presented an opportunity for a longer term position. Technically, the stock has been hammering out a very well defined base in the mid 30's over the past two months, and over the past two weeks, has been consolidating at a higher base just above the 50 day moving average, which I believe is an important sign of a change in trend. Ultimately only time will tell, but if nothing else, the basing action over the past two months will act as a meaningful reference for support, offering a well defined "get me the hell out of dodge" stop level at $33, and a caution alert / partial stop at $37 (the lower region of the higher base, and the current home of the stock's 50 day moving average).
By and large, the market has been behaving incredibly well over the past several weeks, and appears to have shaken off much of the fear from the EU financial mess in addition to our dismal job picture at home. While I would fully expect some measure of pull back and continued chop on account of the headline risk stemming from the EU in conjunction with our own domestic economic stagnation, corporations themselves seem to be doing a good job at continuing to lean up their operations, thereby producing at higher efficiency and increasing margins, even if this comes at the expense of Main Street's labor force.
Looking at this specifically from a stock market perspective, it is encouraging to see the financial sector (XLF) and semiconductor sector (SMH) perking up, as these have historically been leading industries that by and large, need to move higher in order to sustain a broad bull market rally. Make no mistake, financials are still lacking major institutional sponsorship, and I suspect this is the case on account of concerns over domestic bank exposure to the EU financial crisis in addition to unknown liabilities stemming from complex financial derivative investments that may be impossible to reasonably value. Put plainly, the markets are globally interlinked, and what befalls Europe, will to some extent affect our own financial system... the million dollar question is by how much? I for one, do not want to step in front of that train by placing any major bets, but I am getting increasingly interested in beginning to build some smaller positions in select financials, just in case the world finds a way to keep this house of cards standing for a little while longer.
Whatever fate may bring, it should be interesting if nothing else!
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scatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for October 25, 2011 - GLD [Re: qman]
#15278683 - 10/25/11 09:32 PM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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Its one I've been watching, gone down a lot quickly, lots of room to grow (up to 50 or 60 easily) and has been going up, like a lot of stocks, since Oct 1.
I stuck a fair amount of cash out into a few different positions, since all the dips recently have been for a day. Now I'm thinking there may be more pull back coming tomorrow. All depends on how the meeting goes I guess. It seemed like a lot of sell off though I think there will be a lot of buying tomorrow or the day after. I probably should have waited before doing much but I think they are going to be solid in the long run.
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qman
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Re: Stock Update for October 25, 2011 - GLD [Re: geokills]
#15278718 - 10/25/11 09:40 PM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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Yes, AEM took a beating for sure, and I had Jan calls on that sucker, but in reality the stock is a gift at these levels. Check out the after hours in Amazon, down over -20%, the retail darling is proving that this economy is in big trouble.
Gold over 1715 tonight, there are no solutions for Europe, they need 3-4 trillion just to start, and they are playing games at this point. Some think Europe has time to solve this (months or even years), I disagree, the action the in Euro bond markets are screaming bailout now, interesting times to say the least.
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geokills
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Stock Update for October 26, 2011 - AMZN [Re: qman]
#15280416 - 10/26/11 09:59 AM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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AMZN's quarter sent some mixed messages. The weaker than expected forecast is not to be ignored, however it is important to recognize that the headline earnings miss (EPS) is not the whole story. Their gross revenue, growing 44% year over year, only missed estimates by 0.6%. So truly, their sales were pretty much in line with expectations, which in turn exhibits that the consumer is still out there buying things. The miss on net income and EPS came not from a lack of purchasing, but from the tremendous amount of spending that stems from hiring an additional 8000+ workers in the quarter, development of the Kindle Fire, and execution on adding an additional 17 fulfillment centers this year. In essence, they are building out for continued growth, but this build out is handily eating into margins and therefore is likely to cause the stock's PE multiple (of ~100!) to contract in the near term. Thus, I am not in a big hurry to buy AMZN, though I do think that once the dust settles, this one will be an attractive purchase.
In other news, I went short CMG via puts this morning. The stock hasn't seen much follow through after its earnings jump, and with the bollinger bands already fairly wide, I wouldn't be surprised to see this one come back to test $320, particularly if the overall market pulls back.
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qman
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Re: Stock Update for October 26, 2011 - AMZN [Re: geokills]
#15280598 - 10/26/11 11:08 AM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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My Dad has Jan 280 puts,was up a bunch and then gave up the gains, maybe even at this point. CMG is so overvalued, why do investors buy a taco stand trading at 50 times earnings, makes no sense, plus higher food costs. God forbid they buy a gold miner trading at 2-4 times earnings with a ton of cash and 0 debt.
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Bambi
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Re: Stock Update for October 26, 2011 - AMZN [Re: qman]
#15282779 - 10/26/11 07:43 PM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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Ive been thinking about getting some new stocky and maybe dropping some of the older ones in my portfolio if i can make any profit off of them on this rise in the market. but i did find this one stock that has been doing remarkably well these past few days OCZ. Im definitely gonna keep my eye on them for a pullback and then a following push forward to see if its a one trick pony or not. They also have a new product that was just unveiled somewhere i think. Then CBST was looking promising and is planning to buyout another company (which is a good sign?). Either way, its been a good week and im thrilled to finally have a span of good time.
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"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben
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scatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for October 26, 2011 - AMZN [Re: Bambi]
#15284147 - 10/27/11 12:24 AM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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A little tidbit from 6 days ago I came across: "Thai flooding lifted shares of OCZ Technology Group Inc. (OCZ, $5.88, +$0.59, +11.15%), with Sterne Agee saying Western Digital Corp.'s (WDC, $24.96, +$0.52, +2.13%) call for a significant hard-disk drive shortfall in the fourth quarter could directly benefit OCZ and other solid-state drive companies. The channel may look to the SSD market in coming quarters to partially fill the gap, the firm said. It didn't raise its second-half estimates but did express increased confidence in OCZ hitting top-line estimates."
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