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Redstorm
Prince of Bugs




Registered: 10/08/02
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Re: Stock Update for April 3, 2008 - MOS, SGP, DE, SDS [Re: geokills]
#8234755 - 04/03/08 06:26 PM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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SIRI is brutal. They need to get that merger news moving.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for April 3, 2008 - MOS, SGP, DE, SDS [Re: Redstorm]
#8237416 - 04/04/08 08:50 AM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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Yea, well until the FCC announces their decision and any stipulations they're going to require of the two companies, we kinda just have to sit and wait. I haven't averaged down yet, but have plenty of room to do so, with SIRI less than 3% of my portfolio. I will probably do this if the stock breaks below $2.70 - $2.75 a share.
On that note, Mosaic (MOS) reported better than expected earnings with a positive outlook today. The stock is up some 9 - 11 % so far this morning, and I'm certainly glad I didn't sell all of my position yesterday (in fact I wish I hadn't sold any but that's OK!). This bodes well for Potash (POT), which sells a similar product and reports towards the end of the month. Therefore, if there is any near-term weakness in Potash, I may hop into it ahead of earnings since the environment for these fertilizer stocks is so darn positive and Potash will be likely to beat as well. I'm not a buyer today however, as Potash's stock is receiving a lot of positive attention by association with Mosaic, and this on the heels of a very strong week for the stock.
Gold and oil are also very strong today. The employment number came in showing the steepest monthly job losses in five years (80,000 down), with the unemployment rate jumping to 5.1%, it's highest level since September 2005. As a result of the poor employment report, and the fact that the market has seen uncanny strength over the past couple of weeks, I am going to maintain my new position in the UltraShort (SDS), which will hedge any overall market downside over the coming weeks, even though the market continues to behave exceptionally well.
Rather amazing that ever since the Bear Sterns fiasco occurred, the market has been able to absorb bad news without incident. This is very good and makes the market look a whole lot better on a technical basis, but I doubt it can maintain such strength for much longer. Inevitably, there will always be small (or not so small) corrections.
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geokills
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Stock Update for April 7, 2008 - MOS, SIRI, SGP [Re: geokills]
#8250792 - 04/07/08 01:36 PM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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Rally continues through mid-day, with stocks losing steam over the last half of the session. At this point, the market is getting a little hot and reaping reward, so it's time to book some profits.
- Mosaic (MOS) - Sold 21 shares at $120.15
Only about two weeks after I picked up shares of Mosaic at $90, the stock has seen a 33.5% increase in share value! This is on the heels of a great quarterly report, and a short squeeze - where people who were selling the stock short (betting it would go down), panicked thanks to the overall market strength and had to cover their short positions, thereby driving the value of the stock up even higher. With the absolutely exceptional gains experienced over the last two weeks, I have sold my remaining 21 shares in this position, for an average gain of 18%. I still like the long-term story for agriculture, but I believe these stocks can come in as the market begins to cool off and people begin to book some profits. With that in mind and as I noted in a previous update, I am looking to swap my Mosaic for a new position in Potash (POT) at or below $165 a share, preferably before their quarterly report at the end of this month. Potash is in the exact same market as Mosaic, but they have lower operating costs and a longer term track record. I think they stand to handily beat their earnings estimates at the end of the month, and I certainly want to get back into a fertilizer stock for the remainder of 2008 and possibly even into 2009.
- Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) - Bought 450 shares at $2.75
I have been patiently waiting for this stock to come in since the Department of Justice announced its approval of the Sirius / XM merger a couple of weeks ago. With the stock now some 8.4% below my initial cost basis, I am adding to the position in hopes that the FCC will be announcing its approval of the merger soon. There is still some risk, depending on what stipulations the FCC may impose on the merger, and I will likely use further weakness to continue building this position. However, $2.70 - $2.75 a share is a strong support level for this stock given its historical trading action, so any downside risk should be limited at this point. This purchase brings my average cost basis in SIRI to $2.89 a share, currently comprising some 4.3% of my portfolio.
- Schering-Plough (SGP) - Currently trading at $16.80
I have been very fortunate with my timing on this stock. Though the stock is off a whopping 50% from its 52 week high, I have capitalized very well on the recent panic selling twice now in as many months. Most recently, I acquired 350 shares last Monday at $14.50. I then sold 100 shares three days later at $15.27, after SGP announced serious cost cutting measures that should save the company over a billion dollars by 2012. This week, the latest prescription data shows a 9% drop in total perscriptions and a 16% decline in new prescriptions in the US over the past week for Schering-Plough, which is quite mild given the panic selling that brought the stock down almost 30% last Monday. Even though the stock is now almost 16% above my basis in only one week's time, I am going to hold my remaining 250 shares with the belief that SGP's other $1 billion-plus products and impressive pipeline for new products thanks to the Organon Biosciences acquisition last year will continue to benefit the company over the coming quarters.
Discretionary Portfolio as of 4/7/2008:- 21.6% Cash
- 7.1% Philip Morris Intl (PM)
- 7% McDonalds (MCD)
- 6.9% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
- 6.2% Deere (DE)
- 6.1% Transocean (RIG)
- 5.9% Schering-Plough (SGP)
- 5.4% Yamana Gold (AUY)
- 4.9% British Petroleum (BP)
- 4.8% Jones Apparel (JNY)
- 4.8% Apple (AAPL)
- 4.3% Hudson City (HCBK)
- 4.3% Sirius Satellite (SIRI)
- 3.7% Altria (MO)
- 3.6% Petrobras (PBR)
- 3.6% UltraShort S&P500 Proshares (SDS)
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Liquidkick
H2O
Registered: 05/03/02
Posts: 2,635
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Re: Stock Update for April 7, 2008 - MOS, SIRI, SGP [Re: geokills]
#8252990 - 04/07/08 09:18 PM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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Did you trim the aapl today it hit like 160 today...
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for April 7, 2008 - MOS, SIRI, SGP [Re: Liquidkick]
#8254865 - 04/08/08 10:15 AM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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I thought about it, and I would have made mention of it if I had. At this point, my position in Apple is 100% profit - I've withdrawn my entire cost basis. Therefore I figure I'll just let it ride and see where it goes. I can't lose any of the money I originally put into it, and I believe that Apple will continue to be a dominant player in the aesthetically pleasing consumer electronics market. Their Leopard operating system is scoring higher on customer satisfaction surveys than Microsoft's Vista, iTunes is now the largest music distributor in the world, their Mac sales have seen steady growth, and with a 3G version of the iPhone speculated for release later this year alongside iPhone's inroads into the enterprise (corporate business) market, I think the stock should continue on a long-term positive trend. This is a position I've held for years, and not one that I trade around in often since it's all the house's money at this point anyway. For a short-term trade, this would probably be a good place to book some profits.
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s2clothing
Stranger

Registered: 09/07/07
Posts: 71
Loc: NV
Last seen: 9 years, 9 months
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Re: Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: Cowgold]
#8257669 - 04/08/08 10:14 PM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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Great write up man, I've been meaning to look into this for quite some time now... thanks!
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geokills
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Stock Update for April 10, 2008 - SIRI [Re: s2clothing]
#8264401 - 04/10/08 01:31 PM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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Glad you're enjoying it. I'm still looking for an entry back into the fertilizer sub-sector of the agriculture sector, but the stocks I like (Potash and Mosaic), are just not showing much weakness. Given their extraordinary runs of late, I am hoping that some near term weakness is in store, but with the way they've been holding up, I just don't know if we're going to get it as soon as I'd like.
- Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) - Bought 400 shares at $2.56
This name continues to struggle as we await word from the FCC regarding the proposed XM / Sirius Satellite merger. SIRI has been on a steady downtrend ever since the Department of Justice announced their approval of the merger, even though historically the FCC has almost always followed in the footsteps of DoJ decisions. Negative press came out today from the Wiconsin Attorney General, who wrote a letter to the FCC Chairman urging that the FCC stops the merger because "the deal would eliminate competition in the satellite radio industry, result in higher prices for services and reduce the channels availbale to rural Wisconsin listeners." The only problem with his claims are that Sirius and XM have already proposed a cheaper satellite radio package than currently exists, thereby allowing for cost savings on the part of the consumer. It was taken by the DoJ that satellite radio is in competition not only with satellite radio, but with radio at large, including terrestrial radio operators. That would seem to be the case given the huge lobbying effort and monetary contributions from terrestrial radio operators aimed at garnering support for blocking the merger. Terrestrial radio is running scared and is giving all they can to block this merger, and while this is a speculative investment, I still believe that the merger will come to pass. As such, I added to my position on today's weakness, bringing my average cost basis to $2.80 a share, and my SIRI position to 5.5% of the portfolio.
Discretionary Portfolio as of 4/10/2008:- 20% Cash
- 7.1% McDonalds (MCD)
- 6.9% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
- 6.9% Philip Morris (PM)
- 6.2% Transocean (RIG)
- 6.1% Deere (DE)
- 6% Schering-Plough (SGP)
- 5.5% Sirius Satellite (SIRI)
- 5.4% Yamana Gold (AUY)
- 5% British Petroleum (BP)
- 4.8% Apple (AAPL)
- 4.7% Jones Apparel (JNY)
- 4.2% Hudson City (HCBK)
- 3.7% Petrobras (PBR)
- 3.7% Altria (MO)
- 3.6% UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)
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Liquidkick
H2O
Registered: 05/03/02
Posts: 2,635
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Re: Stock Update for April 10, 2008 - SIRI [Re: geokills]
#8266953 - 04/10/08 10:40 PM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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what is going on in the business cycle? Where are we on that chart that Jim has in his book real money?
The commodities should have died by now...shouldn't we be at the bottom of the chart ?
It looks like we were supposed to buy the high multiples tech stocks a long time ago... i am just confused...
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for April 10, 2008 - SIRI [Re: Liquidkick]
#8269696 - 04/11/08 02:27 PM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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Here's a dumbed down version of the business cycle chart for reference:

Unfortunately, the cycle isn't 100% fail proof, and our current cycle is a little different from the generic cycle depicted in Jim's book (Page 115 of Jim Cramer's Real Money). This is because our downtrend is being driven by problems largely specific to the financial, housing and credit systems - and especially due to the fact that we are experiencing new secular growth trends in industries that were previously more cyclical.
To note, secular growth = sustained growth independent of the economic cycle.
We are obviously on the down leg of the curve approaching the trough, as our GDP growth is definitely decelerating and the Fed has been easing interest rates for some time now. Going by Jim's chart, this is the point in time where you might consider scaling into banks & financials, as well as retailers and housing stocks. I don't think that's a bad plan (which is why I currently own Hudson City Bank and Jones Apparel) - but we must be very careful in choosing specific names, due to the central role the financials have been playing in the current crisis, making them considerably more risky than during a typical economic contraction. Also due to tightening credit and home mortgage related problems, consumers are increasingly strapped for cash, which can result in extended retail weakness beyond what a typical business cycle may predict.
Likewise, recent moves by congress in efforts to grant tax breaks to home builders, will probably end up creating even more inventory (too much home supply), which will further devalue home prices since demand for homes will not rise accordingly. In other words, actions by congress independent of the business cycle would seem to be making housing stocks vulnerable to continued losses at this point, and I wouldn't be buying them quite yet (though recent price action has shown that some people have indeed started to pick at these names).
As for tech, this is just a bad time for technology in general. There will be few catalysts ahead until we get into the summer, at which point tech's will likely start to see more life in anticipation of the upcoming holiday seasons and new product cycles. For a few more months, tech is likely to be rather stagnant as people worry that a soft consumer in conjunction with corporations reducing their capital expenditures, will hurt technology sales.
Also as Jim's chart suggests, we should be selling our machinery, infrastructure, metals, and minerals stocks... But the new secular growth trends in industries that were previously more cyclical is a major reason why you don't see many of these names (including commodities) getting hit right now. I'm talking specifically about oil, infrastructure, metals and minerals, and agriculture. Even though in the past it has been wise to sell these stocks as our domestic GDP declines; the international markets are so well connected that many of these sectors are experiencing continued secular growth on account of international exposure to and demand from high growth markets in Brazil, Russia, Eastern Europe, India, and China, as well as the secular trends regarding the need for agricultural feed stocks, fertilizers, and seeds due to rising world population and increased demand for foods.
The business cycle, while valuable as a general guide to where we are, cannot be relied on blindly. We must understand that Jim's chart pertains largely to a historical US-centric economy, and as we move forward with so many companies not confined by borders, in addition to more and more growth outside of the US, it becomes more important to consider each stock as it is connected to the worldwide economy instead of only the US economy.
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geokills
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Stock Update for April 16, 2008 - High Growth Group: FSLR, MOS, POT [Re: geokills]
#8291083 - 04/16/08 11:13 AM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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Dagnamit, I really dropped the ball on a couple of names I've been watching since this thread's inception. What all of these stocks have in common is their high growth rates and resultant high PE multiples. Stocks trading at a high PE multiple generally carry greater risk, but if that high multiple is supported through sustained earnings growth, taking on that risk can prove to offer significant reward. So here is where I repent for having missed the train on some fantastic trading opportunities.
- First Solar (FSLR) - Currently Trading at $296.66
I spoke about FSLR in one of my first posts here, and even got involved around the $220 - $250 level in the beginning of the year. Unfortunately, the overall negative economic climate caused me to shy away from high multiple growth stocks like First Solar. While being conservative can protect you from losses, being too conservative can also cause you to miss out on some big winners. Eyeing FSLR as it fell down to $175, and seeing their great quarterly report in mid-February rocket the stock up to $225 should have been my que to begin rebuilding my position. The stock subsequently pulled back all the way to $175 in the month following that report - making for a phenomenal entry point. Ever since it retested that short-term low on March 10th, it has done nothing but soar to new highs nearing $300 a share (a 70% gain in about one month!). Still liking the stock, I don't want to be guilty of chasing momentum, and must wait for a significant pullback before getting in now.
- Mosaic (MOS) & Potash (POT) - Currently Trading at $134 & 195 respectively
Now I did make some good money off some quick trades in Mosaic over the last month - unfortunately, I was a little too cautious in pulling out my profits at a quick pace, and thereby missed out on about 12% of additional upside from where I had liquidated my position at ~ $120 last week. I had done that in anticipation of swapping into Potash, another fertilizer company in the agricultural sector, as Mosaic had just reported a great quarter which makes it likely that Potash will also report better than expected numbers in their report at the end of the month. The only problem, I wasn't agressive enough in actually swapping into Potash. Instead, I sat around hoping for a pullback, was almost ready to initiate a position at $175 but wanted to wait for the stock to break below $170. Now it looks like that won't happen, with Potash closing in on $200 a share (an 11% gain in about a week's time). With the stock this hot, I can't justify chasing it now that it's run so far, but I am still seeking an entry back into the agricultural fertilizer complex as soon as we see weakness.
So while I might have had some absolutely phenomenal ideas for investment, by failing to execute on my plans and being overly conservative, I cost myself an impressive lot of short-term profits. At my age (25), I should be more agressive but I've always been a fairly practical and conservative person, so it is sometimes difficult for me to take that first leap of faith. I'm always trying to wait for the perfect entry, but with a hot stock, sometimes you just have to bite the bullet and begin your position at a higher price than you'd ideally prefer. Unfortunately, with First Solar, Mosaic, and Potash up in straight lines, all breaking 52-week highs, and having shown no weakness over the past couple of weeks, prudence dictates that I must wait for at least a minor pullback before building (or rebuilding as it were) a position in these names.
Discretionary Portfolio as of mid-day 4/16/2008:- 20% Cash
- 7.2% McDonalds (MCD)
- 6.8% Philip Morris (PM)
- 6.8% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
- 6.4% Transocean (RIG)
- 6.2% Deere (DE)
- 5.7% Schering Plough (SGP)
- 5.6% Yamana Gold (AUY)
- 5.2% Sirius Satellite (SIRI)
- 5.1% British Petroleum (BP)
- 4.7% Apple (AAPL)
- 4.7% Jones Apparel (JNY)
- 4.3% Hudson City Bank (HCBK)
- 3.9% Petrobras (PBR)
- 3.7% Altria (MO)
- 3.7% Ultrashort S&P500 Proshares (SDS)
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phi1618
old hand

Registered: 02/14/04
Posts: 4,102
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Re: Stock Update for April 16, 2008 - High Growth Group: FSLR, MOS, POT [Re: geokills]
#8295399 - 04/17/08 09:12 AM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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FSLR has gone up to around $300/share. I think it's grossly overpriced - the growth is great but the technology isn't likely to be the long-term thin film winner and the p/e is 150+. The current profit is due to gov't subsidies. I'm thinking about buying some puts, but the premium is stupid-high. I'd like to short it, but it's just dangerous. Most of the shares are held by GS and other large investors, and the public float is pretty small. Until there's disappointing earnings or an institution starts to unload the shares, this will be a super-volatile stock with a lot of upside potential. Eventually, it will come crashing down. Overall, I've decided to not get involved - it's just too chancy on either side for my taste.
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
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Re: Stock Update for April 16, 2008 - High Growth Group: FSLR, MOS, POT [Re: phi1618]
#8295561 - 04/17/08 10:18 AM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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I don't disagree, it is dicey given the high valuation - but I also think that First Solar's technology is one of the best out there. They have steadily been increasing the efficiency of their solar film, and sell mainly to large utility companies rather than individuals. Seems like a good market to be in at this point in time, and since they are practically the only solar provider that isn't reliant upon the commodity price for silicon (since their film doesn't use it), they have a significant advantage over other players in the sector.
Nevertheless, it is a high risk situation - but as has been shown thus far, the high risk has paid off handsomely for investors and then some! Of course, hot stocks like these do tend to end the same way, with a crash (think Hansen natural, creater of the Monster energy drink whose stock appreciated some 1000% between 2005 - 2006 but has since fallen out of favor). These are the reasons why I've been so hesitant to get involved... but sometimes it pays to take a big risk, and if I can find a suitable entry point, I will take it.
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geokills
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Stock Update for April 23, 2008 - AUY, BP, SGP, PM, AAPL [Re: geokills]
#8319933 - 04/23/08 05:42 PM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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With the market continuing to trend higher over the past few weeks, I have felt little need to add to any new or existing positions. As we have been pretty beaten up over the longer term, and I already booked profits (way too early I might add) in my high growth name Mosaic (MOS), I have been inclined to let the remainder of my portfolio run quietly. Incidentally, the agriculture group began to pull back today - so perhaps I will finally be able to find a re-entry point for a fertilizer stock such as Potash (POT) over the coming weeks. If Sirius Satellite (SIRI) breaks below $2.45 again, I will also be adding to that position.
- Yamana Gold (AUY) - Bought 75 shares at $13.50
With gold continuing to show weakness, Yamana has also been under pressure. Though the company did miss earnings last quarter, that seemed to be largely due to integration trouble with a recent acquisition. It looks like that trouble is behind them and this company should continue on to grow at a fast clip. I also don't believe gold's run is over, otherwise I wouldn't be wasting my time with this name! Demand for gold is still strong, and I believe that after it churns around the $850 - $950 level for a little while, it will ultimately pass through the $1000 mark once again (likely to continue even higher). This purchase brings my position in AUY to 6.24% of the portfolio.
British Petroleum (BP) - Currently Trading at $69.16
I am starting to warm up to the idea of reducing my oil exposure now that the commodity is valued around $120 a barrel. I feel like oil has been getting a little hot, and has advanced a little too quickly. So while I still believe in the long-term positive outlook for the oil sector, having positions in Petrobras (PBR), Transocean (RIG), and British Petroleum (BP) may be a little greedy, and I'll be kicking myself if we experience any near-term pullback while I'm so heavily weighted to this sector. BP's quarterly report hits the street next Tuesday, and though I believe their numbers will be OK, I may take some off the table if we see continued strength in the name as it is already over 10% above my average cost basis in under two month's time.
- Schering Plough (SGP) - Currently Trading at $18.27
I have to gloat a bit on this fabulous call. SGP reported a quarter today that vastly exceeded analyst expectations. Though Vytorin and Zetia prescriptions are declining, they are not declining anywhere near the level some people were fearing. Couple this with the $1.5 billion of cost cutting that management has put into motion, and this stock should receive some analyst upgrades over the next week. I have booked some profits in this name, and even though my remaining position is now 26% above my cost basis, I will leave the rest of my position on the table with the belief that this one will continue to move up to $20 fairly quickly.
- Philip Morris (PM) - Currently Trading at $52
What a long strange trip... Though I had originally believed this stock would gain momentum much quicker, it stumbled a bit after its spinoff from Altria (MO) last month. Nevertheless, they reported a huge quarter today with earnings of 89 cents a share (12 cents ahead of the consensus analyst estimate). Management also raised full year guidance by 7 cents a share to between $3.18 - $3.24, which should result in analyst upgrades over the coming week. This stock also pays a nifty 3.5% dividend yield and has a fairly sizable $13 billion stock buyback program in place for the next two years. Management also reported that many consumers have been "trading up" to their more premium brands overseas. Given this company's growth prospects and healthy yield, I'm looking for $60 by year end.
- Apple (AAPL) - Currently Trading at $162.89
Company reported a slight upside surprise after the closing bell today. Typical of Apple however, they offered conservative guidance for their third quarter forecast, which ended up falling below the average analyst expectations. I'm not worried though, because even though iPod growth has reached a plateau, Apple's 3G iPhone should hit the market before year end and Macintosh sales are still incredibly strong and continuing to take market share. The stock has had a strong run heading into this report, and as such there wasn't much of a reaction today after hours. However, if it can find its way back to $150, I would definitely recommend picking up some shares.
Discretionary Portfolio as of 4/23/2008:- 18.3% Cash
- 7.3% McDonalds (MCD)
- 7.1% Philip Morris (PM)
- 6.4% Transocean (RIG)
- 6.4% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
- 6.2% Yamana Gold (AUY)
- 6.2% Schering-Plough (SGP)
- 6.2% Deere (DE)
- 5.5% Sirius Satellite (SIRI)
- 5.2% British Petroleum (BP)
- 4.9% Apple (AAPL)
- 4.8% Jones Apparel (JNY)
- 4.3% Hudson City Bank (HCBK)
- 4% Petrobras (PBR)
- 3.8% Altria (MO)
- 3.5% UltraShort S&P500 ProShares
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Re: Stock Update for April 23, 2008 - AUY, BP, SGP, PM, AAPL [Re: geokills]
#8322694 - 04/24/08 10:56 AM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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Just a quick note that Yamana Gold (AUY) is continuing to selloff today thanks to a broad market pullback in the commodity space. It's off over 5% from where I added to my position yesterday, but I do not intend to make a purchase today since the name already comprises a hefty 6%+ of my portfolio. However if there is continued weakness tomorrow, I will be likely to step in to help lower my cost basis - since in light of recent history, these broad based commodity selloffs have typically lasted only three days, and today is day two.
With that in mind, agricultural names such as Mosaic (MOS), Potash (POT), and Monsanto (MON) continue to pullback as well, each name falling 8 - 11% from recent highs set earlier in the week. Mosaic is just starting to approach the $120 level where I liquidated my position after their quarterly report, and on any further weakness I will look to leg back into this space.
Good news out of Schering-Plough, CEO Fred Hassan just announced that he finally bought the $2 million of company stock that he pledged to purchase back in May. At $18.11, the shares are up more than 30% over the past three weeks, and his sizeable private purchase should help inspire more confidence in shares of SGP.
And remember how I mentioned that oil was getting a little rich and I should probably sell some BP? Well, I should have just done it instead of only talking about it! The oil sector is being dragged down with the rest of the commodities today...
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Horse_Meister
Edible Farmer



Registered: 01/14/07
Posts: 408
Last seen: 5 years, 4 months
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Re: Stock Update for April 23, 2008 - AUY, BP, SGP, PM, AAPL [Re: geokills]
#8339079 - 04/28/08 07:49 PM (15 years, 8 months ago) |
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Geokills,
What is your take on CWEI:Nasdaq? It's gone from $49 to $67 in less than a month. It's hitting highs it has never ever hit before. It's a growth stock for sure, with a strong buy.
-------------------- KTHXBai2YoU Horse_Meister Life is what happens while you're busy making other plans.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for April 23, 2008 - AUY, BP, SGP, PM, AAPL [Re: Horse_Meister]
#8341826 - 04/29/08 12:09 PM (15 years, 8 months ago) |
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I am not personally familiar with CWEI, but on the surface, while they have been improving revenue and income and are involved in a very hot sector (oil and natural gas), they are also taking on more debt and delivering a lower return on equity from last year. Without delving too deeply into the research on this one, I'd just as soon believe that we've missed the easy money here, as the stock has appreciated so fast since the year began. Provided Clayton Williams can get their debt management under control, their stock should continue to ride the long-term sector strength in oil and natural gas. At these levels however (even though it is down over 7% today), it seems expensive relative to other peers in the industry.
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With the dollar gaining strength on reduced expectations of future fed rate cuts, hot stocks in the commodities, materials and agriculture sectors have been getting hit so far this week. In particular, Potash (POT) and Monsanto (MON), both about 14% off of their recent highs set last week, are beginning to look attractive at current levels. Yamana Gold (AUY) is also getting cheap, but I've already added to my position at current levels, and will wait for further weakness before I consider adding more. BP (BP) reported a solid quarter today (so it's good I didn't sell that one after all), with the stock good for a 5% bump higher in the face of negative pressure across the entire oil sector.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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mndfreeze 
Shroomery Secret Service




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Re: Stock Update for April 23, 2008 - AUY, BP, SGP, PM, AAPL [Re: geokills]
#8345385 - 04/30/08 08:47 AM (15 years, 8 months ago) |
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If anyone has a semi high risk appetite I would highly suggest you look into countrywide financial if you day trade. The stock moves a lot on an hourly basis due to the company and a lot of cash can be made if you know what you are doing.
Countrywide is CFC
-------------------- Nothing says love like grannies prolapsed anus! quote]Urb said: I know... Its fucked up... Ill fix it minyana..[/quote]
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Terillius
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Re: Stock Update for April 23, 2008 - AUY, BP, SGP, PM, AAPL [Re: mndfreeze]
#8345990 - 04/30/08 01:29 PM (15 years, 8 months ago) |
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I just read this about those fertilizer stocks. Looking at this, buying now is a bet that it will spike again like it has been doing and not crash back to square one.
Quote:
Charts Like Tech Companies
Five-year charts of Potash, SQM, and Mosaic closely resemble those of fast-growing tech companies like Intel Corp. (INTC) and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) in the run-up to the dot.com bust of 2000 to 2001: a steady upward slope, followed by several months of increasingly steep gradient. It took Potash from early 2003 until the end of 2006 to go from $10 to $48, and only another year for it to reach $144. Since the start of 2008, the stock has surged from there to peak at $216 on April 23. "From my point of view, Potash is vulnerable," said Carter Worth, chief market technician at Oppenheimer & Co. "A stock that trades on a 45-degree angle can keep going up forever, but once that angle changes...it's extended. It happened to Apple, it happened to Croc's. Now you're getting into that situation wiath Potash, and the presumption is a setback is imminent." With that in mind, Worth recommended a short bet on Potash, in anticipation of a fall.
Quote:
By Rob Curran Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Growth this fast just isn't natural. Momentum traders appear to have artificially inflated stocks in the fertilizer business recently, creating what looks like a miniature version of the speculative technology bubble. For weeks, shares of fertilizer makers like Potash of Saskatchewan Inc. (POT), Agrium Inc. (AGU), Mosaic Co. (MOS), CF Industries Holdings Inc. (CF) and Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA (SQM) rose day in and day out - both when reports of higher fertilizer prices surfaced and when they didn't. In the last 12 months, Mosaic has almost quadrupled in price, Potash and CF Industries have roughly tripled, and Chile's SQM has nearly doubled. The stocks had their biggest dip in months last Thursday even after Potash raised its 2008 profit projection by more than one third. Recent buyers appear to be hedge funds and other momentum traders - fickle investors by definition - increasing the concern that corrections on Thursday and early this week may be just the prelude to a sharper drop.
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mndfreeze 
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Re: STOCKS - A Beginner's Guide & Running Record [Re: geokills]
#8348531 - 05/01/08 04:30 AM (15 years, 8 months ago) |
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Anyone know what the hell happened at like 2 p.m. to the exchanges yesterday? (wed?) They spiked hard up then real hard back down overall on the S&P, NYSE, etc...
I dropped a good 20k in my portfolio. (this is why I'm glad its virtual! all you bastards should sign up via my invite and all start an investing club)
-------------------- Nothing says love like grannies prolapsed anus! quote]Urb said: I know... Its fucked up... Ill fix it minyana..[/quote]
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - A Beginner's Guide & Running Record [Re: mndfreeze]
#8349512 - 05/01/08 12:35 PM (15 years, 8 months ago) |
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I spend too much time on my actual portfolio to manage a virtual one as well! I don't want to get totally sick of this. 
As for what happened yesterday, the Federal Reserve board held a 2 day meeting earlier in the week, announcing their decision to reduce the Federal Funds Core Interest Rate by 0.25% to 2%, and the Discount Rate (what banks can borrow at) by 0.25% as well on Wednesday afternoon. Since this was the widely anticipated move, the markets didn't react too much and actually bid up on the news. However as the afternoon waned on, I believe people began to consider that the Fed is in the process of switching their bias from lowering interest rates, to standing neutral for a while in order to observe their lag-time effects, and ultimately beginning to raise rates in order to bolster the value of the dollar and keep inflationary pressures under control (particularly on account of rapid price appreciation in the food and energy space).
Yesterday's reaction was actually fairly tame since people knew for the most part what to expect, at least when you compare it to the market reactions to their previous announcements over the past 12 months. Fed days typically tend to be market moving events, and as a result I typically like to stand pat for the week or so heading into a Fed meeting, since such wild volatility can result as soon as they release their decision.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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