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Offlinesofa_king_happy
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... *DELETED* [Re: memes]
    #15183099 - 10/05/11 07:22 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Post deleted by sofa_king_happy

Reason for deletion: sdagfsdg



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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: shr]
    #15183159 - 10/05/11 07:30 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

shr said:
steve jobs passed away today, rip




:sad:  Oh man, everyone is on limited time, but still... it is sad to see some people go! :crying:
Mr. Jobs is an inspiration to many, amazing how well he held it together all the way to the end!

 


I'm off to see Furthur perform tonight, possibly in the rain, and again tomorrow. :gd_icon:


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Offlineshr
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: geokills]
    #15185974 - 10/06/11 11:12 AM (12 years, 3 months ago)

got in X @ 19$ on tuesday. unfortunately can't sell because I bought with unsettled funds :frown:. i'd love to get into the short side right now


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OfflineDNArobots
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: sofa_king_happy]
    #15186583 - 10/06/11 01:31 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

With the market being shitty for a while out in the future now would be a good time to buy some of these.  You check them out, but VMware is going to be huge like microsoft reloaded.

VMW (Computers in computers, remotely dude: http://wwww.vmware.com)
IBM (hardware for VMware server products)
CSCO (investing in cisco is like investing in the growth of the internet)
INTL (New need for better chips


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InvisibleMr. Bojangles
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: DNArobots]
    #15189014 - 10/06/11 09:12 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

Is Fast Stocs the same as Full Stocs? I only have a fast and slow option. I may have to pay for some charts then, seems like TD has decent ones but I dont like scottrade very much. Yahoo seems to have decent charts.




No, fast stochastics has a real choppy look to it.  It's due to the different ways the lines are calculated.  You can probably read up on it in those links I sent you.  Fast stochastics shows lots of signals...which can be a good thing, but there is also a better chance that they're false.  Full stochastics is more like slow stochastics, it just includes an extra parameter...a look back period.  If I'm just glancing at something I usually look at the full stochastics, but if I'm seriously considering buying something, I'll give them all a look and see where they all correlate.  Stochastics can show you a hell of a lot...from buy/sell signals, oversold/overbought, and trends.  They aren't always right, like everything in this game, and should be used in conjuction with other methods of due diligence.

Quote:

Isnt it better though if you buy at 108, and it drops to 100 to cut your losses if it looks like its going way down? It went down to 85 and is still going lower, then buy it back lower and get it for cheaper? It only cost 14 dollars to buy and sell it back and it lost over 15 dollars per share since I sold it, even at 4 shares if I buy it back now thats 60 dollars extra profit.




Well the point is to not buy at $108 in the first place :wink:.  If you buy an extra share at the lower price then you'll end up with more money, provided you bought low enough and it goes back up, but if you stick with 4 shares then you lost money. 

When you paper trade, try to not buy at the highest point on the chart...there's a lot of uncertainty when you're up there.  And if you do sell because it's a losing position, do not have the intentions on buying it back at a lower price...that's a pretty good way to continually lose money.  Try thinking a little more long term and learn to wrangle those emotions.


--------------------
"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong."

Francois-Marie Arouet


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: Mr. Bojangles]
    #15191911 - 10/07/11 02:12 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

The market is going down and it will have lots of rallies and drops before it hits bottom. Too bad about jobs, appl has been drifting down ever since the announcement. I think the wise thing to do is sell all long positions. Going short on volatile stocks will pay off in the long run. Or buy puts. Just ask your broker for permission if you can't do it now.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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Offlinescatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: Stonehenge]
    #15193398 - 10/07/11 08:27 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

"If you buy an extra share at the lower price then you'll end up with more money, provided you bought low enough and it goes back up, but if you stick with 4 shares then you lost money. "

Not to argue, because I appreciate the help, and I get what your saying, dont buy at high points. BUT, if it goes down to 75 (which it did) and I buy 4 shares (which I did), counting the 3 trades to buy, sell, then buy again at 7 bucks each, and counting the 32 dollars I lost buying at 108 and selling at 100...the 4 shares I have now cost me 353 dollars. If it goes back up to 108, which I think it will they will be worth 432 dollars. If I never sold them and they went back to 108 I'd just make my money back(not counting the 7 dollars it cost me to buy it)..this way when its back to 108 I could sell them for a 79 dollar profit, instead of breaking even. Even if it only went down to 85 (as discussed in the last post) then back up to 108, it still wouldve given me a 39 dollar profit.

I do plan on buying a few more shares on Monday if things keep looking like they do for even more profit, but selling it on its way down and buying at the bottom, assuming it goes back up, will make a profit all by itself. But I do understand all your points of what I did wrong, with that trade and others.

My problem main has been entry and exit points. Not knowing where the stock is going next. The things youve been explaining to me about charts is really helping that and I've wrangled my emotions at this point for the last week. I'm understanding it a lot more. Still taking some risks with TVIX, but I'm ok with a little risk, I just want to do it smartly.

I still cant find the "TRIX" is it called something else?


--------------------
"life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake."

Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep)
Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use..
How I do grain (old still good tips)
Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber
Casing layer colonization and overlay


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Offlinesofa_king_happy
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: scatmanrav]
    #15201714 - 10/09/11 05:43 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Thoughts on Hologram Industires (EPA:HOL)  ?
3rd quarter earnings are due on tuesday


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InvisibleMr. Bojangles
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: sofa_king_happy]
    #15209974 - 10/11/11 01:48 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

Even if it only went down to 85 (as discussed in the last post) then back up to 108, it still wouldve given me a 39 dollar profit.




Yeah I didn't really think it through...I just generally try to discourage people from selling and buying in at a lower price because it hardly ever works out in your favor (ie - there's a reason you sold).  You can never be sure of where the bottom is.  You can make a pretty good guess, an almost certainty in some cases, but nowhere near certain if its a falling stock like TVIX.

If you look at TVIX now, it doesn't look like it's going to go up to 108 anytime soon.  It failed to maintain a higher low than previously and indicates it might be breaking the uptrend.  If it breaks support here in the next few days, you can expect $70 to be the new resistance.  Not saying that it might not form a double top or something similar, but you want to wait until you see some positive candlesticks before buying back into anything.  Right now it's still falling.

Not many brokers have TRIX as an indicator.  It is on sharpcharts though...if you scroll to the bottom, in the indicators box, the option for TRIX is under the Ultimate Oscillator and above the Force Index in the scroll down menu.


--------------------
"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong."

Francois-Marie Arouet


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for October 12, 2011 [Re: geokills]
    #15212832 - 10/12/11 08:07 AM (12 years, 3 months ago)

The market is coming into some resistance at the top of its range that spans the past couple of months.  We have failed at this level four times already during that time.  One of the more bullish considerations is that we have ground around for long enough for the 50 day moving average to come down into our trading range, and in fact the S&P broke through it earlier this week.  That is important, because it can be taken to mean that the average cost basis from the last 50 days is now close to the current price, which in terms of investor psychology, breeds more confidence in holding positions or even adding to positions as the pain of the fall from early August fades into memory.

That being said, the market is up very handily over the past two weeks, and being that we are at the top of the range, I am selling my $50 VXX puts for a 40% gain.  I also sold an October $400 call against my AAPL position.  This is fairly aggressive, since the Oct call is already in the money and there are only 10 days left on the contract.  However, AAPL has gapped higher for its third day in a row and I would imagine that it will be giving some back over the coming days or week.  While I do not expect the Oct $400 call to necessarily expire worthless, I do plan to cover the position for a profit on any weakness over the coming week.  If I have to cover it for a loss, so be it, as I do not want my longer term Jan 2013 $305 call to be called away from me.

I have also purchased some SPY $120 October puts.  This is a general bet that the market will retrace a bit over the coming week, which I think is a fairly safe bet given how far we've moved in only a week and a half, being at the top of our trading range, with the 200 day moving average looming overhead.  There has been no aggressive follow through on the gap higher this morning, so it looks like the buyers could be exhausting themselves a bit.  If we do start to fall back below today's open, I'd bet more shorts will pounce on the move rather quickly.  Just keep in mind, that 50 day moving average is important and does give an edge to the bulls.  If we do give some back, it would be a bullish development to see the S&P find support and bounce somewhere between 1150 - 1170, which is near the 50 and 20 day moving averages.


Positions:  Cash, Long AAPL Jan 2013 $305 call / Short Oct $400 call, Long SPY October $120 puts, SLV $25 calls, AGNC, BIP, NLY


Edit:  AAPL is underperforming, which gives me confidence on my short Oct $400 call, however the market did ultimately follow through to the upside during the day today, meaning I should have held onto my VXX Put for longer, and held off on getting into the SPY puts until I saw a better confirmation of weakness.


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Edited by geokills (10/12/11 02:01 PM)


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Offlinescatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for October 12, 2011 [Re: geokills]
    #15214133 - 10/12/11 01:56 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

I was just coming on to ask about what might happen.

I've been thinking the markets getting in the oversold area and getting up there, how much higher can it get? I stopped myself from buying into things today that were going up, have been going up big (JVA, DISH, SSO, TSA ect). I've been figuring they were at the top for days now, going to go back down, and they keep going up so I almost slipped into my old ruts and bought into things..but after looking a bit more I talked myself out of it since we're hitting that point of resistance. I'll wait and see what happens. Things are looking bullish, and will probably continue to do so if the second slavakia vote goes better, but they turn on you in a second! I sure hope theres gonna be another little drop soon to provide me with somewhere to enter.

"Long AAPL Jan 2013 $205 call"

Dont you wish!


--------------------
"life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake."

Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep)
Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use..
How I do grain (old still good tips)
Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber
Casing layer colonization and overlay


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for October 12, 2011 [Re: scatmanrav]
    #15214207 - 10/12/11 02:11 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Hehe, good catch on the AAPL Jan 2013 call, it is in fact a $305 call, which is still a great position to have. :flowstone:

Although it initially appeared that I was a little early in closing my trades against the VIX and opening up
trades against my AAPL long as well as puts on the SPY, the close today was very weak and in effect,
seems to validate my front running (though I'll admit, I did sweat a bit mid day!).  I ended up tripling my
initial position in the October $120 SPY Puts as a result of the late day weakness, with buys at $1.80,
$1.50, and $1.69.  Market breadth was still extremely strong, with the advance decline line firmly positive
all day and the NYSE "up volume" continuing to climb all throughout the day.


   


Those market internals are a direct contradiction to the late day price action, so I am not going to be
extremely bearish.  Nevertheless, given the nearly 150 points we climbed on the S&P 500 in the last seven
trading sessions, in conjunction with being at the top of our two month trading range, I think it is very
appropriate to expect a pull back into the weekend, or if not Thurs/Fri, then early next week.

Still playing it very close to the vest.  Singin' don't worry, 'bout a thing... 'cause every little thing, is gonna
be alright!  Rise up this morning, smile at the rising sun.  Three little birds, it's by my doorstep.  Singing
sweet songs, of melodies pure and true. Sayin'...

    "This is my message to you" :biggrin:


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...π╥ ╥π...


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Offlinescatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for October 12, 2011 [Re: geokills]
    #15223901 - 10/14/11 07:44 AM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Already erased all of yesterdays losses, still thinking its going down? I dont really understand any of those "market internal" charts, but I guess thats why you werent being very bearish. I am hoping it pulls back soon but Googles reports may carry us up. I got into SDS and FAZ yesterday, still holding off to decide if I'm getting out or not.

EDIT: for now the market is looking like it will pull back again a bit, especially FAZ so I'm holding for now, hoping this will carry into the weekend but I have all day to watch it today.


--------------------
"life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake."

Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep)
Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use..
How I do grain (old still good tips)
Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber
Casing layer colonization and overlay


Edited by scatmanrav (10/14/11 08:18 AM)


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Offlineshr
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Re: Stock Update for October 12, 2011 [Re: scatmanrav]
    #15224343 - 10/14/11 10:13 AM (12 years, 3 months ago)

looking for an end of day sell off. lets see if goog can hold this rally into the weekend..


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for October 14, 2011 [Re: scatmanrav]
    #15224599 - 10/14/11 11:27 AM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

Already erased all of yesterdays losses, still thinking its going down?




At some point, yes we will pull back to the 20 and 50 day moving average on the S&P, where I expect we will probably bounce.  I think that will probably happen sooner rather than later, though I doubt it will happen today.  There was some positive economic data coupled with good earnings from Google that have supported the market's advance.  Particularly interesting that S&P's downgrade of Spain did not hurt the EU or US markets.  Because the SPY $120 Put Options only have 8 days left until expiration and they are out of the money (meaning there is only time value on the contract), I did not want to hold them over the weekend and lose two days of time value (20% of the contract value).  Therefore, I have closed that position at a fairly sizable loss.  I do have some low ball bids on some Nov $120 SPY puts, which would in effect roll this same position out for another month; though I don't have a whole lot of conviction right here, and therefore the bid size is only a quarter of what my October position was.

We may fall next week, and in fact I suspect that we will seeing as we are still ramming into overhead resistance, but I don't want to risk the exposure... not while we are heading into the weekend, when anything can happen to cause the market to gap on Monday morning.  Given the positive data today, if we stay strong into the close and nothing blows up over the weekend, I could see the S&P testing its 200 day exponential moving average early next week, which is only about 1% higher from where we are trading right now.  That is ultimately the next level that I would be watching to see if we begin to develop a meaningful pull back that would probably take us back to the 20 or 50 day averages.

I am still holding my short AAPL $400 Oct call, which is now well in the money and also a losing position.  If AAPL eclipses its opening highs above $419 (and it is getting close), that position will be closed today as well.  However, I don't mind keeping this position open over the weekend, since it is a short position, and therefore the degradation of the time value on the contract will actually work in my favor.  I am not expecting that AAPL will be below $400 next Friday, and therefore would be looking to close this position by buying it back on weakness in order to protect my $305 Jan 2013 long call from being exercised at the end of next week.

Oh well, gotta take what the market gives you and act appropriately.  Still on track to finish the week in the green, but it is a disappointing finish for me, to be sure.  Moving along...


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Offlinescatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for October 14, 2011 [Re: geokills]
    #15224685 - 10/14/11 11:51 AM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Interesting. Well I think it would be best to hold my positions in SDS and FAZ. It would cost me 28 bucks to sell both and buy them back at a lower price, with such a small investment in them. Only down a few dollars today overall so thats ok. I'll be hoping for a pull back soon.

I started a notebook today, trying to organize all the stocks I'm watching and eliminate some too (all my watchlists together, theres probably 70-90 I'm watching). Figuring out what to do with each one depending on how they react. I'm hoping if I keep my thoughts in writing they will carry over and I wont second guess and change my ideas as I watch the market rise and fall intraday. Got a 3 ring binder with all the stocks I'm in, or want to be in, one per page so I can move them to different sections of the binder depending on if they are- in my portfolio, soon buy, maybe buy, dividend stocks, just watching, uptrending, downtrending, and to expensive for me but solid stocks (for my paper account) ect.


--------------------
"life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake."

Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep)
Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use..
How I do grain (old still good tips)
Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber
Casing layer colonization and overlay


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for October 14, 2011 [Re: scatmanrav]
    #15224789 - 10/14/11 12:19 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

I was taken out of my $400 call on AAPL when it crossed over $419, and have sold a $435 Oct Call in its stead, bringing in $500 of premium.  I will probably close this position ahead of AAPL earnings on the 18th, as knowing Apple, they will blow the door off.


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Anonymous

Re: Stock Update for October 14, 2011 [Re: geokills]
    #15224814 - 10/14/11 12:25 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)



so, im up about 6% on my investment I made only 2 weeks ago. Its very heavy on silver...

Im debating selling it off so im not exposed over the weekend... Every thing has been so volitile, and reactive lately i don't know if i want the exposure.....any advice?


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for October 14, 2011 [Re: Anonymous]
    #15224947 - 10/14/11 01:05 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

I have no strong feelings on the direction of SLV right here, especially not with so short a time horizon as "over the weekend."  One thing you said does resonate quite clearly however, and that is: "i don't know if i want the exposure."  If you don't feel comfortable with the exposure, the decision is easy.  Book your profits (or at least a portion of them, until you feel comfortable with your level of exposure).  You can always get back in later, and if you miss a bit of the move, maybe that is worth not having to stress over the weekend?


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··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
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Anonymous

Re: Stock Update for October 14, 2011 [Re: geokills]
    #15225011 - 10/14/11 01:20 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Yeah, I Closed it out entirely.

It was a nice position to pick up after the crash of the physical silver market... and I feel that CDE will have a lot of potential coming up to their next earnings date nov 7th... But im sure that should I want to get back in, there will be ample opportunity to do so next week.


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