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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: scatmanrav] * 1
    #15171885 - 10/03/11 01:44 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

scatmanrav said:

You say it, I know it, and yet I cant bear to do it ... I keep seeing too that everyday there are big gainers, no matter what the markets doing and I cant help but to want to be in on those gains.




You are being ruled by your emotions, and I would strongly suggest paper trading with fake money while you develop your strategy and understanding of market dynamics.  This is a downright dangerous market for a newbie to be using real money, because there simply is no discernible edge, just a bunch of chops and gaps.  The mentality you describe of seeing those select winning stocks each day and letting your desire to be in those stocks rule your decisions is the same reason they put all those bells, whistles and flashing lights on slot machines in Las Vegas.  People see and hear the few who are winning, and it drives them to believe that they could "be that guy" and of course they begin to funnel quarters into the machines at a feverish pace... until they run out and have to go home with empty pockets.  Don't be that guy!  Sell your losers, re-group, and you will find yourself able to make better trades because you won't be so emotionally invested in positions that are killing your account.


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Offlinescatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: scatmanrav]
    #15172016 - 10/03/11 02:10 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Well as I said at this point a few are going to have to be held til tomorrow for settled funds. A Free Ride doesnt sound as good as the title makes it sound.

What about these REITs? They are all now at they're low low lows, 52 week lows, some lower then that, some at the loest theve been in 5 years. Isnt it worth it to hold these for now, they all are 15-20% dividends and have to bounce back up at some point dont they? They are decent companies..

They say a big mistake investors make is jumping out to soon when the stock drops, unwillingly to take a little loss, only to find the stock goes back up later.


--------------------
"life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake."

Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep)
Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use..
How I do grain (old still good tips)
Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber
Casing layer colonization and overlay


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Offlineshr
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: shr]
    #15172267 - 10/03/11 03:11 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

sure glad I got out. I'm going back to paper trading and putting my real money in a solid divi stock....starting to get a little wreckless after a string of good trades :lol: this market is just too volatile for someone with my little experience


Edited by shr (10/03/11 05:39 PM)


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OfflineYrat
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: shr]
    #15173012 - 10/03/11 06:00 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)



--------------------
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
Strike The Root


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Offlineshr
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: Yrat]
    #15173131 - 10/03/11 06:26 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

interesting, I wish I knew how to find stuff on charts like that.

do you experienced traders often look at the historical performance of the major indices to find trends like that?


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for October 4, 2011 - NLY & AGNC [Re: shr]
    #15175628 - 10/04/11 08:18 AM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Nothing should be looked at in a vacuum.  You should always be looking at multiple time frames for individual stocks as well as the major indicies:

  • Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly charts = Your Decision Time Frames
    (i.e. Do you want to be involved, and in which direction?)


  • Intraday, Daily and Weekly charts = Your Action Time Frames
    (i.e. At which precise levels will you be implementing your decision?)


When you find an individual stock that you like, you then need to weigh that bias against the longer term trend of the sector that the company operates within, as well as the longer term trend of the over all market (i.e. the S&P 500).  I may love AAPL to all get out, but if the technology sector does not find support and the S&P continues to fall off a cliff, AAPL is also going to face pressure and therefore, even though the company's outlook is rosey, aggregate market forces dictate that I should not be aggressively long until I see the sector and market trend fall in line with the stock's trend, as aggregate market forces will often trump company specific forces.

Yrat, thank you for posting that important chart.  Downright scary, we're standing on the edge of a cliff! We did in fact technically enter bear market territory this morning, with the S&P extending down over 20% from its high.

I maintain minimal exposure, though the mortgage REIT's did catch my attention as they were taken to the slaughterhouse this morning.  There are two primary issues at hand that are effecting mortgage REITS such as NLY and AGNC.  These are the Fed's Operation Twist, which seeks to flatten the yield curve by selling shorter dated treasuries in order to purchase longer dates.  Since mortgage REITS make their money on the spread between short term borrowing and longer term mortgage rates, there is clearly concern that Fed manipulation will tighten their spread by forcing down longer term rates and in turn, their profitability.  Secondly, there has been talk that the SEC may subject mortgage REITS to additional regulation a la the Investment Act of 1940, which would institute stricter margin limits.  Because companies like NLY and AGNC rely heavily on margin in order to produce the fantastic yields they have been able to deliver, any reduction of margin capacity will thus reduce their profitability and in turn, their dividends.  I had been out of these names for the past few months, but did pick up a little bit of both NLY and AGNC in this morning's panic.  I left plenty of room to add more however, as this market has, by and large, been exceptionally unforgiving toward aggressive trades.  Be cautious.

Note that if AGNC can maintain a consistent dividend payout (which I am not counting on, and hence why I did not buy a full position), the yield is 23% at the current $24 level where the stock is trading.  With NLY, a consistent dividend payout would garner a 16% yield at current levels of $15 a share.  Just some food for thought, as longer term investors with lots of cash on the sidelines may want to consider nibbling on these names.  It has proven a winning methodology in the past, though granted the headwinds are blowing more fiercely right here, right now.


Positions: CASH, AAPL, AGNC, BIP, NLY, SLV


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...π╥ ╥π...


Edited by geokills (10/04/11 10:16 AM)


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Offlinescatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for October 4, 2011 - NLY & AGNC [Re: geokills]
    #15176426 - 10/04/11 12:14 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Man oh man this market kills me. Anyone want to know what to do in this market, I'll post what I do, and you just do the opposite :rolleyes:

Bought MCP at 31.25 early on along with TVIX at 108 because they were heading up. Also sold off FAS as it was heading down at 8.70 (bought yesterday at 10.74. Probably right to get out of it. Buying into more things in the first hour is probably not the best bet, and I ended up selling MCP at 31 and TVIX at 100. Both losses, but really I dont know whats gonna happen next, the market might rebound, might not but it wasnt looking good to me.

I also sold NCT and CYS (2 of my dividend payers). Probably not a good move but REITs were on there way down again. Took big losses from those. Now they recovered their losses for the day, but reading about the two issues you mentioned geokills scared me from them.

Also sold Kodak off after losing all my gains yesterday, plus some on it today. I knew I shoulda sold it last night.

VHC I bought yesterday at 12.21 on a huge drop and sold it today at 13.50, the only thing I made a profit on. And its still going down, so it was the right move.

So now I'm still holding my NLY and ARR (my other 2 dividend payers, which recovered a little from the drop this morning) which I'll hold for now, but I'm going to try and not fill my portfolio with REITs this time since they arent as safe as I thought they were. Going to add onto ARR a little if it goes over 6, its close now.

And I'm holding a little Disney, which is up a smidge right now. I dont know if I'm going to keep holding this, its been in a downtrend and really wasnt a smart buy.

So now I am finally in 85% cash, my portfolio is the smallest its been in weeks, and I'm trying to wait it out.

I probably shouldve kept TVIX since its going back up and the market back down. Its so crazy though I just keep asking myself, how much farther can it really drop before some people start buying again? I feel like the market has to have a short bounce, even just a few days right here and it almost did, but then the S&P crossed that 1100 market momentarily (which is when I sold it) and bounced back down. So of course, I bought it at the high today and sold it at the low so far. Now I want to buy back in before it shoots up tomorrow :shrug: Since thats what I want to do, I'm not going to though.


--------------------
"life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake."

Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep)
Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use..
How I do grain (old still good tips)
Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber
Casing layer colonization and overlay


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InvisibleMr. Bojangles
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Re: Stock Update for October 4, 2011 - NLY & AGNC [Re: scatmanrav]
    #15176616 - 10/04/11 12:58 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

Man oh man this market kills me. Anyone want to know what to do in this market, I'll post what I do, and you just do the opposite




Learn how to read your charts man!  MCP was definitely a no-go.  MACD, Stochastics, and TRIX do not say buy.  Then there's the 50/200 death cross.  I understand if you see a lower low you think its a good time to buy at a low price...but wait for support to form.  Wait for some clearly defined consolidation so you can mark solid entry/exit points and not be gambling as much with your hard earned dollars.

You also bought TVIX at it's highest point today.  Don't chase the runners.  You'll get burned.  A few sets of higher highs and higher lows on the 5 min. chart would show you if something's truly off to the races (usually).  If you would've just waited till 10:30, you would've seen a lower high and thus a no-go on the buy.

You need to read lots and lots of charts.  Learn what certain patterns look like.  Learn what sell-offs look like.  It will teach you to not buy a $108 stock and sell it in the same day just because it dropped intraday even though it's still in an upward trend :wink:.  Of course it'll also teach you you shouldn't have bought it at $108 in the first place. 

Entry and exit points...that's what it's all about, and that's what the charts tell you.


--------------------
"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong."

Francois-Marie Arouet


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Offlinescatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for October 4, 2011 - NLY & AGNC [Re: Mr. Bojangles]
    #15176710 - 10/04/11 01:16 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

I do appreciate it, I relize a lot of what your saying, as its too late.

I'd love to know of a site that explains charts well, and what certain things signify. I stare at charts all day and all night, but a simple candlestick chart is about all I REALLY understand. I find videos that give me glimpses into these signals that you and geokills talk about but they dont explain how to find those signals for yourself. For instance the MACD Stochastics and TRIX you mention, I've seen the first two used but whats the best way to look at them, 10 day, 3 month? Basically I bought MCP because it was very low and it was up early on high volume. Thats about as much signal as I can see. I feel the charting in Scottrade may be lacking..but it may be my lack of knowing how to use it. Its really WHICH are the best indicators and the time frame for the indicators that I need to know to look at, as theres about 3 dozen different ones to choose from in this scottrade charting.

TVIX I know is in an uptrend, I bought it high and sold it off when it was low another time in the 80s recently (youd think Id learn, right), so I shouldve held it once I bought it, and I shouldve waited to buy it anyway. I keep making mistakes, relizing it, and then making more trying to fix them.

I am again going to try and keep myself in mostly cash and stick with paper trading (which I've been doing since before I started real trading, and I'm doing far better at, of course its easier with a million dollars to play with). But any sites on studying charts you may know of, I'd like to read.

EDIT:
Looking at Stochastics for DISH, it looks good right? Theres a crossover and its going from oversold up but on MACD the "hills" are on the bottom, so it doesnt look good on that right? Meaning stay out of it, even though to me it looks good, but there are conflicting indicators..

Of course, all the stocks I sold off came back up, except TVIX of course, which I'm very glad I got out of. Uptrend or not, I'd have lost alot more money then by selling it and buying it back soon. I did get some more ARR to pad my price paid down, which recovered well.


--------------------
"life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake."

Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep)
Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use..
How I do grain (old still good tips)
Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber
Casing layer colonization and overlay


Edited by scatmanrav (10/04/11 02:06 PM)


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InvisibleZippoZM
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Re: Stock Update for October 4, 2011 - NLY & AGNC [Re: scatmanrav]
    #15177196 - 10/04/11 04:21 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Wow, what a week, this market is killer.

I bought into slv and CDE earlier in the week, and have seen nothing but losses, CDE actually crahsed below it's 52week low today, and. And had a rebound. I know in the long term that CDE will bounce, they are a strong producer of gold and silver, with lots of active exploration within existing projects.... And I have faith in silver and gold in e long run.... But hot damn, it's tough to watch.


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PEACE

:mushroom2:zippoz:mushroom2:



"in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption"

"People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it."


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for October 4, 2011 - NLY & AGNC [Re: geokills]
    #15177474 - 10/04/11 05:41 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:

The mortgage REIT's did catch my attention as they were taken to the slaughterhouse this morning ... pick up a little bit of both NLY and AGNC in this morning's panic.




Well hot damn, that worked well!  Huge volume, huge bottoming tails.  Only wish I'd bought more!  :crazy2:

    These were just phenominal moves.  AGNC was particularly strong on its rejection of the downside.
    You can see I still have a few small low ball orders in, just in case we get more flashes of volatility.


   

   


The S&P itself put in a very respectable high volume end of day rally.  Quite unexpected, it will be
interesting to see if we can build off of the momentum or if it was really just a bout of program trades
covering short positions.  If the S&P is above 1125 fifteen minutes after the open tomorrow, I will begin
accumulating some trading positions.  I would add to those positions on a continued move above 1140,
and would ultimately expect the market to roll back over to the downside, somewhere between 1175 -
1200 on that good ol' S&P.

Stocks I will be watching for continuation tomorrow, include LULU, AAPL, PCX, AKAM, LVS, XIV (inverse
instrument of the VIX aka "volatility index"), TNA and UPRO.  If I take TNA and UPRO, which are both
highly leveraged ETF instruments, I would definitely have the positions closed before the week is out. 
The idea here is only to capture a bit of a relief bounce move, not to take a long term bullish bias
(because really, there is nothing to be bullish about in this environment!!).  If this relief rally plays
out, I will begin eying some short positions or inverse ETF's, as noted, with the expectation that any rally
would end up petering out somewhere around 1175 - 1200 on the S&P.

That's my story, and I'm sticking to it... at least until the opening bell! :wink:


PS.  I want to highlight that statement I made above, "If the S&P is above 1125 fifteen minutes after
the open
".  It is important to recognize that the moves stocks make during the first 15 minutes of the day
are often done with the highest degree of reckless abandon, by retail traders who just have to get in to
their stocks before they miss out.  In most cases, the professional traders will be happy to stand aside at
the open, letting the buying frenzy drive up the price until they decide to begin dumping their shares in
mass, thereby reversing the early morning direction.  Because of this chaotic dynamic, it's almost never
a good idea to trade a stock right at the open.  Let the market set it self up so you can discern a reliable
bias/trend for the day.  Otherwise, you're just being a gunslinger and liable to lose your shirt!  Believe
me, I've been there and it's no fun!


--------------------

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...π╥ ╥π...


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Invisiblememes
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: memes]
    #15177625 - 10/04/11 06:14 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

meams said:
Anyone ever heard of Molycorp? (NYSE: MCE).  A friend works there and won't shut up about them.  When i take a peek it seems a joke.  Don't waste any time researching on my behalf - just wondering if anyones ever heard of them at all.



Apparently molycorp (who, again, my friend works for) is set to announce a large rare earth discovery or something along those lines.  Seeing as how China is the gigantic producer of these things, and molycorp is the largest US supplier (and we will, some day, be at odds w/ china either in a trade war or a real war), is it prudent to get into this firm at all? 

Short terM? 

Long term?

I have a little bit of excess savings right now, adn am about to dump BoA to set up an online account with Chuck (unless you have something better to recommend than Charles S.)

I have no idea how to slowly build my portfolio, but perhaps this is a place to start?  I know the discovery is already priced in -- but considering they're undergoing a lot of investment, mayhaps its not too late to jump on the train?

lemme know, i'm ignant!

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/04/us-molycorp-rareearth-idUSTRE7932KX20111004


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: memes]
    #15177646 - 10/04/11 06:22 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

I've given up on MCP for now.  With the economic outlook fairly bleak, cyclical companies that rely on industry are likely to remain under pressure.  If MCP falls into the $20 - $25 range, I'll start to take more interest.  But right now, I just don't have a strong feeling for it.


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...π╥ ╥π...


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Invisiblememes
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
    #15177686 - 10/04/11 06:32 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

word up, thanks :smile:  my savings aren't really at a investment-grade level yet anyways.  any general tips on how to slowly work my way into a portfolio?


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: memes]
    #15178228 - 10/04/11 08:14 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Find a few stocks you like, and set some low ball "good til cancelled" orders for a small initial position (say 25 - 30% of what you would want your full position size to be).  Set a text alert at that same price level, so that you'll be notified on your phone when your order conditions are met and thus filled.  This is a hands off approach to snagging some good deals without having to constantly watch the market.  Just do your best to choose your levels carefully and keep your initial position size small, as you will want to evaluate the market environment if and when your order gets filled, to see whether it is appropriate to continue building the position at the current level, or whether the market appears weak and you may get further downside (in which case, set another low ball good til cancelled order at a lower level for another 25 - 30% chunk of the position).

That is in fact how my orders on AGNC and NLY were filled this morning.  I had good til cancelled orders in for AGNC at $24 and NLY at $15.  The positions are up 9% and 5% respectively on the day, and I didn't even have to think about it because I set the low ball bid ahead of time, at a price where I knew I would want to take at least a little bite to get involved in the action.  I choose my bid levels based on longer term weekly and monthly charts, taking note of where prior spike sell offs have taken the stocks.  This is a particularly useful strategy on high dividend stocks, since the lower your cost basis is, the higher your annual % yield will be, due to the dividends being paid out in fixed dollar amounts per share.  Because this yield-to-share-price relationship makes dividend paying stocks more attractive the lower they go, they tend to have an underlying bid and will often bounce back fairly quickly after sharp sell offs, as we saw with AGNC and NLY today, both of which closed at the top of a ~10% daily range.


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


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InvisibleMr. Bojangles
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
    #15178852 - 10/04/11 10:07 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

Looking at Stochastics for DISH, it looks good right? Theres a crossover and its going from oversold up but on MACD the "hills" are on the bottom, so it doesnt look good on that right? Meaning stay out of it, even though to me it looks good, but there are conflicting indicators..




If you're looking at the Fast Stochastics then yes...I prefer Full Stochastics, which hasn't had a crossover yet.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DISH&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p89136088235

In simple, yet effective, terms...with MACD, Stochastics, and TRIX...you're looking for the crossover.  When black crosses below red, that's your sell...when black crosses above red, that's your buy.  MACD gives you a little extra something with the histogram.  You can see how the histogram bars get shorter and shorter preceding a cross.  This isn't always the case, and shouldn't be used as a buy/sell point alone.

As far as DISH goes...I'd wait for some support to materialize first.  MACD and Stochastics haven't showed a buy signal yet and TRIX is showing a sell signal in the near future.  50/200 death cross also occurred today.  Technically the old resistance should be new support, which is where it's currently at.  But with this market you can't really be sure of anything.  Protect your money and be cautious.  Let it consolidate and go from there.

I only use charts from stockcharts.com...I find the broker charts to be lacking.  You have to pay extra for real-time, though.  Stockcharts also has a very good chart school and community to get you all read up.  Another good resource for charts is stockhideout.com.  http://www.stockhideout.com/forumdisplay.php?f=40 ; pages upon pages of lessons for you.  I will warn you though, stockhideout is a pennystock daytraders site, and with your level of experience I'd advise against getting caught up in all the talk they do...stick to the lessons.

Quote:

Uptrend or not, I'd have lost alot more money then by selling it and buying it back soon.




You lose the commission and any losses you took on today.  If it goes back up over $108 and continues the uptrend, you wouldn't have lost anything.  Might have been a week or two where your account balance was showing red but in the grand scheme you could have saved money by staying in.  Losses are not realized until you sell, stay in the game long enough and you'll see all sorts of tricks market makers play to lower price (especially on low volume).  And you don't want to get duped into playing along. 

Not saying you should buy back in...just that one day of trading on a chart that looks like that isn't going to tell you enough on whether to buy/sell.  If it holds a higher low than the ~$68 it had on September 27th than it's most likely still in an uptrend.  Focus more on the big picture rather than watching your account balance fluctuate up and down.  There's gonna be down days but that doesn't mean you necessarily have to sell.


--------------------
"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong."

Francois-Marie Arouet


Edited by Mr. Bojangles (10/04/11 10:18 PM)


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Offlinescatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: Mr. Bojangles]
    #15180286 - 10/05/11 07:59 AM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Is Fast Stocs the same as Full Stocs? I only have a fast and slow option. I may have to pay for some charts then, seems like TD has decent ones but I dont like scottrade very much. Yahoo seems to have decent charts.

Isnt it better though if you buy at 108, and it drops to 100 to cut your losses if it looks like its going way down? It went down to 85 and is still going lower, then buy it back lower and get it for cheaper? It only cost 14 dollars to buy and sell it back and it lost over 15 dollars per share since I sold it, even at 4 shares if I buy it back now thats 60 dollars extra profit.

I am sure however that this type of thinking is partially whats gotten me in trouble, but its hard for me not to see numbers in that way. I still dont think I'm buying back in yet, because I think it is going down further, I think the S&P is going to come back for a few days, its so oversold. Plus I need to not buy anything today lol.

Ill check out that site, thanks.


--------------------
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InvisibleLuddite
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: scatmanrav]
    #15182226 - 10/05/11 04:44 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Here's a good link for dividend history.  Just change the ticker symbol for the stock or security to get the dividends.  You can use http://www.bigcharts.com to look at stock charts.  For closed end funds beware of too much return of capital and leverage which amplifies moves in both directions (up and down) depending on the market.

http://dividata.com/stock/GPC/dividend

http://dividata.com/stock/UTF/dividend

http://dividata.com/stock/FOF/dividend

http://dividata.com/stock/INB/dividend

http://dividata.com/stock/PGN/dividend


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Offlineshr
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: shr]
    #15182760 - 10/05/11 06:26 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)



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Invisiblememes
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: shr]
    #15183088 - 10/05/11 07:20 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Thanks for the tips, Geo! :smile:


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