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scatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for September 23, 2011 - Sticking my Neck Out! [Re: geokills]
#15123061 - 09/23/11 02:34 PM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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I wish I could buy options as you do, I've been watching NLY to buy, I'll pick some up Monday if your right and it starts to go back up, probably around 17.50-18 though, alot higher then you. Some day.
So if it breaks below 1100 right out (similar to the drop we had today), you'll wait for it to go back up a little, expecting it to go down?
If it goes higher, I'm liking Virnetx Holding(VHC), Molycorp, Sprint, AT&T, Citigroup, US Airways (LCC).
If I were richer, I'd like Tiffanys, Visa and Netflix.
I'm also watching Gold and Silver ETF's right now of course with the spikes down, may go ultralong or ultrashort.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for September 23, 2011 - Sticking my Neck Out! [Re: scatmanrav]
#15123504 - 09/23/11 04:00 PM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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> I'm also watching Gold and Silver ETF's right now of course with the spikes down, may go ultralong or ultrashort.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced just about an hour ago (after market close) that they are raising margin requirements on gold and silver. I have a feeling that the crushing move these metals took today indicates that this news was somehow known early, but we'll just have to wait until Monday to see if indeed these new margin requirements have been factored in, or if we have farther to fall.
NFLX is an absolute disaster, it does appear to be basing, but you should be very careful there. Their business model is changing and customers have been leaving in droves. Not to mention new streaming video competition from Blockbuster that will be offered via the Dish network. These guys just really fucked it up.

My 2014 call on EOG has also turned into a bit of a disaster. Thankfully the position is small and I had intended on adding to it on weakness, but the stock has shown ZERO strength over the past two days, so it's definitely not yet right to be adding. Nevertheless, we are at a secondary support line on the monthly chart, so with a little luck, we will see some stabilization and EOG can begin to work higher over the coming months. Even so, I do not want to add to this position until I see convincing signs of strength.
I was watching VHC and MCP today as well, but did not take any action. VHC is still near the low end of its narrowing trading range and the nice move higher today was on fairly weak volume, which does not give me much confidence. MCP stayed in a pretty tight range on low volume, indicating that downside momentum is waning, so it may make sense to get in, though I would prefer to see a successful retest of the $33 level first.
Trade safe.
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CosmicLion
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Re: Stock Update for September 23, 2011 - Sticking my Neck Out! [Re: geokills]
#15123959 - 09/23/11 05:32 PM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: NFLX is an absolute disaster, these guys just really fucked it up
Netflix was my FAVORITE recovery play from the 2008 crash... They had just got exclusive rights to the X-Box and things were looking great! I had a huge chunk of my portfolio dedicated to them.
October 2008.... $20 a share... didn't get it that low but still that's incredible.
They have done it ALL wrong recently... what a shame
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scatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for September 23, 2011 - Sticking my Neck Out! [Re: CosmicLion]
#15124304 - 09/23/11 06:47 PM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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So the last few times they increased margin requirements last month gold rallied up, so it probably will again?
According to this: http://goldharvest.blogspot.com/2011/08/cme-margin-increase-exposes-desperation.html Your right, they knew of margin increases today. "Today's CME Gold margin increase might have been the worst kept secret in the history of CRIMEX shenanigans. This story was posted on The Street's web site at 8:24AM est this morning. A mere four minutes after the CRIMEX assault on Gold began in earnest."
I saw the rebound of Netflix after 2008, made me think it would again, but I guess your right, it could fall out even more the way they are running things now vs then. Either way if I were richer I'd be short.
Edit 9/26 MELA OMEX ZSL DCTH FAS TZOO TNA
These are the premarket gainers today. TZOO I've been watching and has a bit of a way to go up. FAS and TNA have a bit of a way to go up, if they keep going, as well. Silver I think will continue to go down (ZSL, inverse silver etf will go up) The other three are a bit riskier. Although MELA just got an FDA approval letter for a drug, which should be a good sign. Either way most stocks seem to be going up quickly (AAPL is down so far a little) and silver and gold down. GLL is a gold inverse, going up as well.
Edited by scatmanrav (09/26/11 07:25 AM)
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geokills
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Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: geokills]
#15147266 - 09/28/11 02:07 PM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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Really nasty close today. NYSE breadth was 25 to 1 negative and the master sector list was 25 to 0 in the red, which is just about as bad as it gets. We get GDP, jobless claims and pending home sales economic data tomorrow, likely to move the markets.
There just isn't much to do in this market, as there is simply no edge unless we are at the very bottom or very top of the trading range from 1100 - 1220 on the S&P. It's chop city, and for the most part, isn't worth my time to try to navigate. I'd much rather sit it out for the most part, in order to ensure that I will have capital on hand for that moment in the future (whenever it may be) where opportunity presents itself with a clearer and more sustainable trend - or a tremendous washout.
I sold out of my BAC position for a very small gain yesterday, and also closed my short puts on NLY for a similarly small gain. It just wasn't worth the additional stress for me to hold the added exposure. EOG is still floundering around what appears to be a base in the making, although today's action is weak enough to be concerning, with the only saving grace being that the sharp move down has been on declining volume. SLV is also still under pressure on account of dollar strength, though here as well, volume is declining and I believe we have a base at $27.50. WLT also down huge today, coal continues to be beaten down. I don't think we're moving away from coal that quickly, and since my short puts don't expire for another four months, I am content to hold for now.
I made one small purchase to begin building a long term position on Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP), a holding company that owns hard asset utilities all around the world and is offering a 5.7% annual yield at the current price. It's well diversified, in an industry that doesn't typically see a lot of fluctuation, and that in and of itself is a relief in a market as volatile as this one.
Positions: AAPL Jan 2013 $305 Call, EOG Jan 2014 $75 Call, SLV Oct $25 Call, SLV Nov $39 Call, BIP, Short WLT Jan 2012 $60 Put, CASH CASH CASH.
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Stonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: geokills]
#15148449 - 09/28/11 05:23 PM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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All part of the general declining trend i spoke of. Even when it goes sideways, this market tends to be violent. Bears are going to eat everybody's lunch in the long term for years to come.
The fundamentals have not changed and all look negative. You get short term rallies from signs europe is stabilizing or rumors the usa is getting back on track. Then it all turns out to be worse than people thought. Wish i had better news but i'd rather be safe knowing what's out there than sorry because i thought the market always came back up.
Gold has been erratic lately. The margin tightness no doubt drove it down. It use to go down when the market went down, then it seemed to go the opposite. Lately it has been on a drunkard's walk but my long term forecast for it to go way up is unchanged.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: Stonehenge]
#15148593 - 09/28/11 05:53 PM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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Gold, silver, and commodities in general have been weak due to the strength being seen in the Dollar. The Dollar strength is in turn due to the realization that it is still the world's reserve currency in conjunction with weak hands who want to get out of the Euro. Ultimately, I agree that the fundamental thesis behind gold's assent remains intact and that it will prove to be a worthy asset allocation for all portfolios. However, as is being seen by those who were just a couple of weeks ago buying gold at $1900 and silver at $40, nothing is a sure bet and you must be mindful of your time horizon. This is why people building a new long term position should always make it a point to buy in scales over time, in order to take advantage of reversions to the mean to better their cost basis.
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ohmatic
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: geokills]
#15161718 - 10/01/11 09:44 AM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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where do u guys see apple in 3 months ?
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: ohmatic]
#15162074 - 10/01/11 11:30 AM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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Apple is the single stock I am most comfortable holding in this environment, and therefore I would anticipate that it is going higher. However, aggregate market forces and global economic headlines can trump company specific strength. This is a very difficult market environment, and you need to respect this if you are going to put your money to work by identifying your maximum risk, and adhering to your risk management plan through the use of position sizing and stop losses. For those who are new to the market, I would strongly advocate only paper trading right now. Wait for Greece to default and see whether the EU is able to ring-fence protection around other debt laden nations that are at risk of domino effect (i.e. Italy, Portugal, Spain and Ireland). It may very well produce a tremendous buying opportunity, but only if you have capital preserved to put to work during the anticipated global sell off that should result from this sort of macro event.
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scatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: geokills]
#15164748 - 10/01/11 10:39 PM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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Im thinking very hard into some SDS and TVIX until Greece does default. Its up and down but the charts on both have been uptrending pretty well since August and I dont see things getting better or less volatile until this whole EU thing gets through. Ill wait for the market to go up again, then buy into them a bit and see what happens. I am also preserving a lot of cash and getting more ready for when this does get worse and then solved(?)..
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shr
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: scatmanrav]
#15168593 - 10/02/11 07:10 PM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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i was long on BAC a few weeks ago but with recent news...i'm turning into a fearful trader. i'm getting out tomorrow...just writing in this thread so I don't sleep on my decision and change my mind tomorrow
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: shr]
#15169443 - 10/02/11 10:35 PM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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BAC is at the very bottom of its range, closing Friday at $6.12, with its two year low at $6. Because the S&P is also near the bottom of its trading range from the past few months, I would set a sell stop just below $6, which will take you out of BAC if it breaks support, while allowing you to participate in a potential bounce and close the position at a higher price in the event we get a bounce off the $6 level. If we do get a bounce, I would still expect BAC to ultimately roll over to the downside, and would therefore be ready to close your position somewhere between $6.50 - $6.75. The fact that BAC made a lower high last Tuesday is definitely a red flag, and I'm surely not advocating going out on Monday morning and buying up a boat load. But seeing as you have presumably been holding BAC throughout the past four days of selling, prudent trading habits would have you set a very tight sell stop instead of just outright selling at this point, since you already went through the blood bath and the stock is now so close (2% from) short term support at $6. Not saying it can't slice right through that level, but a 2% risk is worth taking in this scenario. If a 2% risk is too large, your position was too big to begin with and you need to work on using both position sizing and appropriately placed stop losses as your primary features of risk management.
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scatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: geokills]
#15170566 - 10/03/11 07:23 AM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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Yea, I got stopped out of BAC just at the 6 dollar mark (my fear as well, I was going to hold it), then it bounced back up a bit. I'll probably get back in a while from now when things finally are lookiing up. Now Im just holding my dividend stocks and some DIS. Everything looks like its down a bit premarket, so dunno what I'm going to do yet. FAZ looks possible, its all so risky right now.
EDIT: I think it looks like it'll bounce soon so instead I got into a little FAS. Also got into EK early this morning, its continued to rise after a big sell off on Friday on rumors of a bankruptcy that isnt going to happen they announced.
Also watching DISH which has dropped pretty good over the last 5 days but has been on an uptrend since they're doing that whole Blockbuster streaming video thing to compete with Netflix (which is also looking a little better these days, very risky though still).
VHC has also dropped a buttload today, and a bit over the last 10 days, dunno why though. They won a suit against Microsoft for patent infringement a little bit ago and was in an uptrend. They recently sued Apple as well for the same infringement, same judge same lawyer, I would expect a similar result (winning) and another uptrend. So getting in now might be good.
Whatcha think?
Edited by scatmanrav (10/03/11 09:22 AM)
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: scatmanrav]
#15170980 - 10/03/11 09:39 AM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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> Whatcha think?
I think I'll be sitting on my hands for the most part, though I did make a very small addition to my still small position in BIP on this morning's weakness at around $23.
I would not be a seller right here, but I don't have a compelling urge to be buying either. I've been saying it a few times over the past few months, and I'll say it again -- in this type of market, less is more. If you are trading in this environment and getting paid off, by all means keep at it. I unfortunately have not been having this experience, so I will stand aside and wait for the market to stabilize before re-involving myself in any meaningful way. The market will still be open next week, next month and next year. Why would I want to take on a lot of risk (and the associated stress) when the market is this choppy? I can't think of a good reason, so instead I'll just take a li'l vacation and wait until the sailing is smoother. You'll save yourself a lot of time, stress and money by recognizing when a market is too difficult to game. The market will get easier at some point, but we're not there yet.
Case in point:

When I see the S&P break above the 50 day moving average, I will begin to get more interested in buying. Until then, this market is just FUGLY.
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sofa_king_happy
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: geokills]
#15171109 - 10/03/11 10:20 AM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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are stock buying/selling fees and commission taxed?
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: sofa_king_happy]
#15171141 - 10/03/11 10:29 AM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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Trading commissions are set by each individual broker and are tax deductible.
Example: You make $1000 in a year from your trading activity, but spent $300 on trading commissions. You are therefore only taxed on your net income of $700 ($1000 gross - $300 deduction).
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: geokills]
#15171613 - 10/03/11 12:36 PM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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Market really fell apart today around noon eastern. We are now very close to testing the August lows, and at the bottom of the downtrending channel indicated on the S&P chart I showed in my post this morning. Market internals are extremely negative. If ya absolutely have to do something, you might consider this:

AAPL - Weekly bull put spread (expires in 4 days): short $365 put, long $360 put for $1.25 net credit. AAPL would have to fall below the high volume low on 8/25 and the 9/6 low to break this trade. With the iPhone 5 announcement imminent in conjunction with the beating AAPL has taken and the potential support line from the lows on 8/8 and 8/22 at around $367, I don't think that's happening. So long as AAPL is above $365 on Friday, keep the $125 per spread initiated. Maximum loss is $375 per spread, and breakeven would occur with AAPL at $363.75 on Friday's close.
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scatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: geokills]
#15171742 - 10/03/11 01:08 PM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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If only I could do options.
You were right about the stock market. I cant help myself from getting in I try to tell myself to wait, the time will come where its right, but then I see daily charts doing something and I think I know whats going on and bam, I end up wrong so far. EK is doing ok, but I'm not out of the woods until I sell of course. Disney too. I bought into VHC while its 20% down for the day because, well, it has to bounce back up With all the downward I figured there would be some sort of small pull back so I ended up in FAS when it was high today, instead of FAZ and TVIX like I planned. Of course I wish I just stuck to the plan and invested in downward stocks.
I am just not being very smart, and I know I'm doing the wrong things but everytime I decide on doing something, it ends up being wrong no matter what I think about it.
Even the REITs are crashing (ARR and NCT taking a big one) and my thought is to buy more, but is it over? I just cant pull myself away from trying to guess, but it cost me today for sure. Im praying for a pullback tomorrow because I dont think its right to sell now that everythings even lower. EDIT: Apparently they're going down due to fed forcing interest rates to stay low, I thought that was what made the REITS safer. But at least theres dividends until it goes up, as long as they dont go away.
Edited by scatmanrav (10/03/11 01:25 PM)
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: scatmanrav]
#15171797 - 10/03/11 01:22 PM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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I can't tell you whether the market is going higher or lower from here. I can formulate a thesis for a bounce at this level as well as a breakdown to new lows, with no greater conviction in either argument. Therefore, I just don't see a logical reason for doing a lot right here, right now. You don't need to trade everyday. I would go so far as to say you should not trade everyday! And remember, your first loss is typically your best loss. In other words don't hold onto your losers because you are hoping that tomorrow may bring you some relief. Sell that loser as soon as you know it is going against your original thesis, and bask in the immediate relief of being rid of it! This will clear your mind which will allow you to rationally observe new opportunities as they develop. If you hold the loser, it will only cloud your judgement as your emotions wreak havoc. Losses are a cost of doing business as a trader. Keep them small, take them quickly, and free up that capital for the next good trade rather than tying it up in a bad trade!
For what it's worth, I've taken my lumps by closing my Jan 2014 call on EOG, as well as my short Jan $60 put on WLT. These trades went against me, and even though they both had a longer term time component that may ultimately have allowed them to work out in my favor, I'm not going to sit around and wait for them to lose me even more money and potentially cause me to capitulate at even lower levels. Kick those losers to the curb, re-set price alerts, and wait for the next opportunity to present itself. Emotions are dangerous when it comes to trading. Discipline trumps conviction. Remember that. Seriously.
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scatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for September 28, 2011 - Still Nothin'... [Re: geokills]
#15171841 - 10/03/11 01:34 PM (12 years, 3 months ago) |
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You say it, I know it, and yet I cant bear to do it lol. All of my positions stay in the couple hundred dollar range and I lose so much money just selling at 7 bucks a pop, I just cant do it yet. I have taken many many lumps. Traded over a dozen losers I am rid of now, only one I got right so far was CS. But if tomorrow is bringing the same thing I will have to get rid of everything. If I at least bought into TVIX early on today it would have buffered my losses from this craziness.
I dont worry so much about tying up capital just because I have more cash I can (and do) add in for new trades. The main reason I cant help myself from trading is learning I guess. I have to actually do some things wrong before I can learn to do it right I hope. I keep seeing too that everyday there are big gainers, no matter what the markets doing and I cant help but to want to be in on those gains. Unfortunatly concentrating on these is what leads to my downfalls.
I certainly hope there are people reading and learning from this thread as much as me. I figure posting my mistakes is good learning too.
Another problem with selling is this settled funds thing. I buy and sell so much I criss cross and buy with unsettled funds alot which means I usually have to wait a few days for funds to clear before selling. 3 days for all trades to settle is something important to consider when trading..
Edited by scatmanrav (10/03/11 01:44 PM)
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