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Organical Registered: 03/04/09 Posts: 783 Last seen: 4 years, 11 months |
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Quote: So you have over $25,000 in your account so you can be a "pattern day trader" and enter + exit trades so quick? Mad props! I have been using Interactive Brokers for 4 years now. They are by far THE BEST BROKER ON THE MARKET. Their forex platform sucks (MBTrading rocks) but their rates for stocks are UNBELIEVABLE and they offer inexpensive access to every global marketplace available. Withdraws come on the SAME DAY and deposits are processed within 24 hours. They also have a VERY easy to use "advisor" setup where a "master advisor account" can have many individual "client accounts" attached to it. It gives the advisor access to all the client's money and presents it to the "mater advisor account" as one lump sum of cash to trade with. They even offer great leverage on TOP of all this sum of client's money. They give me fluctuating margin based on how well I am currently trading. Not to mention they have software that generates automatic reports for all the advisor's clients. Margin.... they offer a margin loan rate of 1.58% which is FANTASTIC! Most brokers offer margin in the 7-8% range. This margin rate allows one to assume extra risk without the fear of being eaten away by interest charges. I can't say enough good things about this broker... a BEAUTIFUL platform (crappy charting though) with GREAT customer support and INVALUABLE rates on all their services. Edited by CosmicLion (09/09/11 12:43 PM)
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Alt Center Registered: 06/20/04 Posts: 14,850 Loc: S.E. |
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I just looked at their website and can't find a straight answer on commissions. The example they give is buying or selling 30,000,000 shares at $5 each. Yeah right. The lowest commission i see listed is $1000. What are the real rates or is that it?
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/
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Organical Registered: 03/04/09 Posts: 783 Last seen: 4 years, 11 months |
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Quote: That means if you buy 50 shares of Apple (AAPL) at $375 per share then you would only owe .25 cents at the $.005 commission rate. They would charge you $1 for this trade. If you bought 5,000 Shares of a penny stock then, using the $.005 rate, they would charge a $25 commission. Lets say you wanted to buy $25,000 worth of Cree (CREE) at $30 a share. That's 830 shares. They would charge you a $4.15 commission. With my diversified stock portfolio of ONLY companies worth OVER $5 per share I end up paying $1-3 on most trades. I do like to dabble in stocks below $5 on occasion but I use my MBTrading stock account for this. MBTrading has a $4.95 flat rate commission for an unlimited amount of shares. For average sized orders and use of margin Interactive Brokers is the bees knees. For gigantic high-risk orders where no margin is used MBTrading is my choice. Regardless of the margin advantage IB almost always has the better commission rate. Just all depends on your trading style... ![]() http://individuals.interactivebr http://mbtrading.com/stocks.aspx Edited by CosmicLion (09/09/11 06:24 PM)
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Breathe In Registered: 04/08/08 Posts: 1,937 Loc: The Dirty |
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Quote: Yep, and it was fucking tough to get there too. For far too long I had to keep my day trades to 3 every 5 rolling business days and that just made me look for larger gains which is NOT the way to go if you're daytrading the pennies. Even dabbled in swing trading to get around the daytrading BS but that had mixed effects. It's so nice to trade whenever I want and have enough money so I don't have to wait for funds to clear. Although it was good learning via the school of hard knocks...just a pain in the ass. Quote: Yeah I'm really happy I found out about them when I did. Found out about them from a student foundation fund I was a part of and have been using them for about 3 years myself. I'll have to do some searching and see if there's some more preferable commission structures to the strategies I use. I get kind of lazy after I find a good thing and don't like having multiple trading accounts...I already have too many screens to scroll through during market hours as it is. Although the more I'm looking the more I realize I might have to split my accounts because I definitely qualify for E-Trade pro and they include level II quotes for free, I pay like $20 a month through IB for L2. Plus that $7.99 flat rate commission that E-Trade offers is looking pretty sweet. Do you know if MB Trading includes/has level II or do you have to pay extra for it? I've never used broker charts...always have and always will stick with the sharpcharts on stockcharts.com. They're free but you can only put 3 overlays and 3 technical indicators on the free charts...you can pay and get real-time data, more overlays/indicators, and the ability to set up lists of charts which is pretty sweet. -------------------- "It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong." Francois-Marie Arouet
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 4 hours, 3 minutes |
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![]() Once again, the market is hanging on and bounced at the low end of its channel trend, but buying pressure was not aggressive. There are trades to take, but this still isn't the market to have conviction in any longer term positions on account of the financial crisis in the EU and the sluggish economy here in the US. Volatility remains elevated and I continue to be a very cautious trader. Not much else to say really, though on my watchlist for tomorrow is CSX, VHC, AAPL, MPEL, APKT, LVS, SINA, MCP, STMP. Here's an interesting piece from Doug Kass that I thought was worth sharing: Quote:
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Brainy Smurf Registered: 05/08/04 Posts: 11,483 Loc: Last seen: 11 years, 26 days |
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I took a few bumps last week, learned some things I hope. But as the market bottoms out I keep adding to my cash and adding a few positions I think are at the bottom. All small money stocks, cause I'm still small money..
I'm in BAC, looks to be at the bottom and gonna bounce up at some point. I've held onto my CS position, its been up and down but at the beginning of August it was at 35, I'm hoping it will go up there again. I got in on CYS a few days ago, mainly because they announced a dividend payment coming up on the 19th and the dividend payment was around 17% when I got in. Since then stock prices have gone up for it. I plan on getting into more dividend stocks I'm just waiting for the right time, either downhill spike, or dividend announcements. I'll probably hold them a while. BTW, do you have to hold the stock for a month after you bought it or after the exdate or what for the different tax qualification? I bought into YHOO at 14.38, we'll see what happens. They seem to have alot of new tech comming out, they seem to be on their way back up, maybe to 16 like 2 months ago or even 18 like 4 months ago. Maybe just a little and I'll be stopped out. Yesterday I bought into Sonic (SONC) at about 7.75, it seems very undervalued. A month and a half ago it was over 11 and I'm sure it will go back up to there again. Then I got into a risky one yesterday, ANX (Adventrx Pharm), a penny stock. I really only bought in because it went up a good amount three days in a row. Of course today it went down 13.74%, the only one in my portfolio to do so, but that was enough to make me slightly negative overall. I cant sell it for at least 3 days because apparently I didnt have settled funds yet. I'm learning all about this 3 day thing between trades. So hopefully it will go down a little and bounce up so I can at least make my money back. Maybe it will go back up to the 4 dollars it was 2 months ago. Now I'm looking at another (guess I didnt learn). Even more risky, brand new OTCBB). But who knows where its going to go. Its Lone Star Gold Inc (LSTG). Gold is on its way up, and this company may be too. I looked at their website and its simple but the brochure, fact sheet, president, and VP seem good. I also came across this marketwire report where they secured a 15 million dollar contract with North American Gold Corp, and not as a debt but just 15 million they can pull money from as they need. Since this came out, the stock started jumping. Heres a release from LSG if anyones interested: Quote: I'm a sucker thatll probably get in on it but I'm just watching it for now. Well thats my stocks for what its worth (and I have no idea what I'm doing so not worth much!). I see it bouncing back up for now until some other news shakes us up. -------------------- "life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake." Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep) Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use.. How I do grain (old still good tips) Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber Casing layer colonization and overlay
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 4 hours, 3 minutes |
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Quote: Keep in mind that the 17% yield is an annual figure, and that most companies distribute their dividends quarterly (four times a year). Therefore, the dividend you will receive on the 19th should be around 4% of the share price value. You are correct that you must hold a dividend paying stock for at least 30 days in order to qualify for the lower tax rate on the payout, otherwise, it will simply be taxed an ordinary capital gain at your nominal tax rate. Also keep in mind that dividend paying stocks tend to lose just as much value as is being paid out in the dividend distribution, as soon as it happens. So don't think you can just grab the dividend and run... if only it were so easy. All in all, I continue to sit on my hands. The market is extremely choppy and there doesn't appear to be much of an edge (at least to me), particularly because tomorrow is options expiration which tends to lead to higher than usual volatility. So rather than drive myself batshit crazy trying to jump around all this chop, I'm opting to wait for some more clarity. Still holding onto my AAPL LEAP (Jan 2013 $305 call option). But that is it. Someone mentioned PANL in this thread a few weeks ago. I have been keeping an eye on it and the stock does appear to be performing well. I would probably take a little nibble today if it weren't for the quadruple witching taking place tomorrow. Instead, I will look to take a bite if $50 holds as support, or on a breakout above $60. I am also watching VHC and S, both of which are tightening up their ranges, which should result in a decisive break into a new trend sooner or later. RIG on a pullback to $55 - $56 that acts as support would be an attractive entry, seeing as the stock has been in a series of higher lows and has just retaken its 50 day moving average, which has acted as resistance for the past six months. SINA on a pullback to $100 - $102 would also appear to offer an entry for a shorter term trade. In truth, gold is probably what I'm getting most excited about. It is down 2.5% today, and I would love to see it find its way down to $1650, where I will start buying (note: I already have a position that stems back to the $650/oz days). There is talk of issuance of a eurobond backed by all of the EMU nations up to 60% with the remaining amount backed by individual states using their respective credit ratings. If this happens, it will probably allow gold to continue pulling back, which should make for a nice entry. So long as the nations of the world continue to print money in attempts to inflate their way out of their own debt burdens, gold is a fundamentally sound asset class that should not be dismissed. Risk management is paramount, now more than ever, for both your financial and your psychological interest! Good luck, I hope you thrive.
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Brainy Smurf Registered: 05/08/04 Posts: 11,483 Loc: Last seen: 11 years, 26 days |
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I've been looking at gold ETFs, since gold is a bit expensive, whats the best ones to look at, or best way to get into gold?
I plan on holding the dividend stocks I get into for a while, but right before they pay and as they go up seems like a good time. Everything for me did well today, especially CS and BAC. No idea how this options thing will affect things but we'll see tomorrow. Most of my positions I'm comfortable holding on a little drop because I think they'll be back up, except maybe ANX. -------------------- "life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake." Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep) Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use.. How I do grain (old still good tips) Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber Casing layer colonization and overlay
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Resident Pothead Registered: 04/12/08 Posts: 1,811 Loc: Your computer sc Last seen: 3 years, 9 months |
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GLD is the ETF that I used to hold.
Remember that dividend history is just as important as the current payout. A dividend doesn't constitute anything more than a single quarter payout (a year in some cases). A company can drop the divi at any time, especially if they have shaky earnings. If I were you, I'd look for companies that have rock solid financials and a consistent dividend history and buy in to them. Don't wait until just before the ex-date to buy the stock. If you're taking a dividend investment approach, you're going to want to go long term and not worry about short term fluctuations barring a shakeup in the company fundamentals. -------------------- No knowledge can be certain, if it is not based upon mathematics or upon some other knowledge which is itself based upon the mathematical sciences. -Leonardo da Vinci (1425-1519) Speak well of your enemies. After all, you made them.
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Alt Center Registered: 06/20/04 Posts: 14,850 Loc: S.E. |
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The market has not bottomed out yet, imo. This is the last gasp of the optimists i was talking about. It will last a little longer and then we will head for the bottom. Gold is getting affordable again.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 4 hours, 3 minutes |
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AAPL has been a beast, touching $400 this morning, up for its 5th day in a row and close to testing its all time high at $404.50. When it hit $400, I sold (shorted) one October $400 callagainst my Jan 2013 $305 long call (aka my AAPL LEAP). This brought in $1445 in premium, for giving someone else the right to buy 100 shares of AAPL from me at $400 before October 22nd. If that happens, I exercise my $305 LEAP, thereby buying the 100 shares at $305 to turn around and sell them to the guy who bought the October $400 call for $400 a share. This means that I get to keep the $1445 in premium for selling the option as well as the $950 difference in my cost versus the delivery price on the option I sold; for a total gain of $2395 on an initial $10,000 investment (the cost of my LEAP). That would be a 23.95% gain in two months time, if the positions are called away.
It is worth noting that I believe in AAPL's long term trend, and I would not be surprised to see it above $400 by the October expiration, which would result in the stock being called away from me. This is why I plan to buy back that $400 call I sold before expiration, allowing me to be sure I will maintain possession of my LEAP. Because AAPL's prior high was $404.50 and the market itself has been up (so far) for its 5th day in a row, I am expecting some weakness next week. The aggregate market weakness in conjunction with the $404.50 resistance on AAPL stock specifically, should cause the Oct $400 call I sold to lose value relatively quickly, since it is entirely time value (unless AAPL is above $400, in which case it will be mostly time value), and there is only one month's worth of time on the contract. Therefore, I will likely end up buying that call back for a 40 - 60% discount (~$725 profit) on any market weakness. This effectively lowers my cost basis in the LEAP, and also gives me the option to sell another October call against the LEAP, closer to expiration and at a higher strike price, which I would expect to expire worthless and would therefore be more likely to hold through expiration. Today's trade is not made with the intention that the contract I shorted will expire worthless, instead it is strictly to capture some of the premium from the time value of the contract, seeing as AAPL is nearing resistance in the context of a market that looks poised to correct at least slightly to the downside. LEAP calendar spreads for the win!
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 4 hours, 3 minutes |
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The market is opening weak today, and oddly enough, silver and gold are also down on fairly heavy volume. This is unusual, likely due strictly to strength in the dollar this morning. I am considering this an opportunity and am dipping in a toe (slowly) on a new position with the SLV proxy. We are at the lower bollinger band and very close to support from the prior lows at $38.05. This presents an opportunity to enter a position with minimal risk if you keep your stop below that last low. If we break that level, I would expect SLV to fall to test $37 in short order. If we do not break $38.05, I will add to my position on a move back above $39, which would indicate SLV re-taking its 50 day moving average.
AAPL has been holding up quite well considering what the overall market is doing, down less than 1% with the major averages down 2% or better. Thus, I am maintaining an alert at $400, and if AAPL manages to re-take and convincingly stay above that level, I will end up buying back the short leg of my calendar spread in order to assure that I won't lose my Jan 2013 LEAP. If I buy it back, I will be poised to short another October call at a higher strike price as soon as I see any weakness in the stock. However, it is worth noting that AAPL tends to run higher in anticipation of its earnings report, which is coming in the next month. Because they are also expected to debut a new iPhone, AAPL probably has an underlying upside bias and therefore any short calls should be sold well out of the money (if sold at all) on a move back above $400. Edit: Got stopped out of my short $400 call on AAPL for a negligible loss that has been eclipsed by the monster move AAPL is making over $400 (currently at $406). I have also taken a long side trade on NTES, as it bounced off of a support level from early and late August lows. If the market cooperates, the channel trend on NTES will take it from its current price of $45 up to $51 - $52. There is however, likely to be some resistance at $47 - $48. ![]() Double Edit: Wow, good thing I covered that short call, AAPL is tearin' it up right here, about to hit $410!
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 4 hours, 3 minutes |
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Just wanted to chime in to highlight a couple of important things that any aspiring trader needs to understand.
The Importance of Cutting a Loss & Identifying Key Levels For this, let's take a closer look at what AAPL did today. The first thing to note is that the prior high, which occurred right after earnings, was an all time high. All time highs in particular are key levels to watch, because once the price sets a new high, there is not going to be anymore selling pressure from the "I want my money back" crowd, because by definition, every single person who has bought a stock that is trading at an all time high is a winner. It is important to recognize that when AAPL jumped above Friday's high, even though it wasn't the all time high, it was a notable event because AAPL was bucking the aggregate pressure in the market (big down day in the major averages, and yet AAPL was hardly down at all and in fact beginning to rise rather meaningfully). Thus, the path of least resistance would be higher. Therefore, because the $400 October call option that I sold (shorted) on Friday is a leveraged instrument with a short term time component, I knew I should immediately buy it back for a ~$200 loss once I was sure that Friday's high would be breached in a meaningful way. Sounds like a shitty deal at first, but ultimately, if I hadn't been quick to close that short call, it would have been preventing me from capitalizing off of the winning half of my calendar spread (the $305 LEAP). So I took that $200 loss without hesitation, and what did it get me? As AAPL continued to ramp throughout the day, that initial loss still allowed me to gain over $800 net on the $305 LEAP that I was holding as the core position in the calendar spread. Not a bad deal! ![]() Because volume was also impressive, it would seem that this move will likely continue. However, the stock did close close to its third standard deviation band, which is not a sustainable event. Of course, we saw the S&P hitting its third S.D. band to the downside multiple days running during August, so anything is possible. After a move like this that caps the sixth day of upside momentum in the stock, I would expect some sort of pull back, but would be fairly surprised if AAPL finds itself below $400 again. If the market gets exceptionally soft and AAPL comes back to $385 or so, that would be a gift for buyers with capital to put to work. ----- In other news, (gasp!) I am taking a more fundamentally oriented position in EOG Resources (EOG). EOG is an oil & gas exploration and production firm, with 82% of its reserves here in the US and 11% in Canada. This is important, because the oil market in the US has been under pressure from many angles (regulatory bodies, environmentalists, and the fact that it was historically cheaper to continue to import rather than develop our own resources for producing oil). It seems that the popular opinion, which is also politically applicable, is to now encourage energy independence for the US. While I'm sure that an emphasis on renewable resources would be most palatable, there is a lot of infrastructure that will need to be run off of oil throughout the transition toward more renewable resources, which will take a minimum of several years and more likely several decades. One of EOG's primary reserve resources is in the Bakken region which is located predominantly in North Dakota. Interestingly, construction firms such as Cruz Construction have been very active bringing in new trucking fleets, tractors, cranes, and you guessed it, oil rigs. Unemployment in that state is also well below the US average, indicating a thriving economy that could very well have a lot to do with the development of the existing oil resources, of which EOG stands to be a primary beneficiary. However, it is worth noting that there is a problem with infrastructure, namely transportation and most specifically, railroads. Using trucks to get your oil out of that region is not efficient, pipelines take a long time to put into action, and so railroads are really needed in order to step up production in these regions where very large discoveries have been found, but we simply don't have the infrastructure ready to deal with it. I would expect to see more political support for developing this infrastructure in the coming years, as politicians begin to squawk about energy independence in anticipation of the elections that are little more than a year away. Technically, the stock has been downtrending for several months, retreating from its highs above $120 earlier this year, to the current level of $87. That's a nearly 30% decline, and looking at a longer term monthly chart, it looks like this stock has the potential to begin setting up a base right here, with a potential move down to $75 if the market gets really weak. ![]() Looking a little closer at a weekly chart, we can see that there appears to be the formation of a short term base at the $85 level. ![]() So, while the technical picture is not excellent, and there is the added concern of continued contraction in global growth, which would pressure oil prices and thereby make EOG's production less profitable, I do like the long term outlook for this company given its US dominance, and stronghold on one of the largest oil discoveries since Alaska's Prudhoe Bay. On account of the base at $85 that has been forming for the past month and a half, I am slowly legging into a position by buying a single January 2014 $75 call option. This gives me the right, but not the obligation to buy 100 shares of EOG anytime before January 2014 at $75 per share. The stock itself is not particularly cheap, with S&P's fair value calculation hovering in the mid to high $60's. However, with January 2014 over two years away, this gives the position plenty of time to work as well as a lot of room to add in the event that EOG does end up going lower. Not to mention, I can also use this LEAP as the core position in a calendar spread, allowing me to sell near term out of the money calls against it, and hopefully paying for the entire position through these repeated sales over the next 2+ years.
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 4 hours, 3 minutes |
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Man, AAPL is just tearing it up! Tagging its third standard deviation band today at over $420 a share, new all time high set at nearly $423, putting my LEAP firmly in the green up 40% in about one month's time! In absolute value, this is my best trade ever. Even better that it's in my Roth IRA [retirement] account so I won't be paying any taxes on it!
![]() Taking this as an opportunity to sell a $435 call against my LEAP for $130. It's a small premium given the value of the underlying $305 LEAP that I'm selling against, but it's a weekly contract that expires in three days, so unless AAPL just absolutely blows to the moon (it's already up seven days in a row!), the probability is very high that I get to keep this premium. Interesting to note that some of the high fliers are being absolutely taken out the woodshed today. As the S&P is testing its 50 day moving average, this is a time that would surely merit caution when entering any trades to the long side. Just look at what's happening with NFLX (down another 9% today, and down some 37% in four days!). SINA getting smashed today, down over 10%. MCP (a stock I like), down almost 20% today alone, on the heels of a downgrade from JPMorgan. These are tremendous losses, and serve to me as am ominous sign that warrants great caution.
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Organical Registered: 03/04/09 Posts: 783 Last seen: 4 years, 11 months |
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Quote: ![]() Good job dude!
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Alt Center Registered: 06/20/04 Posts: 14,850 Loc: S.E. |
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Hate to say i told you so but the last gasp of the optimists looks like its about over. Expect a gradual decline in the dow over the next couple years or so. With a few peaks here and there when the optimists get their tax refund check.
A few stocks will beat the average but will be weighted down by the falling dow. Dropped 283 today after being flat yesterday and down friday. Gold dropped a little too which shows its still somewhat coupled to the market but i expect it to go back up.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/
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Brainy Smurf Registered: 05/08/04 Posts: 11,483 Loc: Last seen: 11 years, 26 days |
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Indeed I took a small hit, got stopped out of 90% of my positions, still holding some CYS (dividend) and CS, its been holding up well. Also got into TVIX at the start of its jump up today, that made me back a bit of my losses. Its some 2x ETN that goes off the VIX, which as I understand it, will do better when the S&P does worse, so should be good? Overall it hasnt done well but with this volatility I think it will do ok. Will have to look for other things that go down as the stock market goes up, since I guess I cant short anything..
-------------------- "life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake." Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep) Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use.. How I do grain (old still good tips) Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber Casing layer colonization and overlay
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 4 hours, 3 minutes |
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I would be very careful trading anything VIX related. Typically, you DO NOT want to be going long the VIX when it has already spiked to the extent that it has. We are, after all, at yearly highs in the VIX, and concurrently testing intermediate term support at the aggregate market (i.e. S&P 500) lows that were set on August 8th. The path of least resistance right here, is higher. This is where traders are BUYING, not selling. And if we get follow through to the upside next week, the VIX is likely to get crushed! You are doing the instinctual thing... market has been getting clobbered, if you took on more exposure than you were comfortable with (or didn't maintain appropriately tight stop losses), you have been bleeding, panic is setting in, and you may feel like you better start getting short to get on the right side of the trade. Not necessarily! You must pay attention to support, and until we see the S&P fall below 1101, we should expect the expected, which is a bounce higher, because this is what has happened three times already during the weeks of August 8th, August 22nd, and September 12th.
Of course, if we break 1101, we are likely to pick up steam to the downside as our neat little trading range will be broken, and therefore the VIX could be a viable position. However, I would not want to buy it. The market has been down for the past four trading sessions. The time to go long the VIX (or short equities) would have been three days ago, as you could have placed a tight stop on the position. There is no where to place a reasonable stop on the VIX now that it has spiked so much. This is the most important point. If you aren't buying near support, you are being an aggressive trader. This market has been punishing aggressive traders. The market is very choppy, and most investors would do well to sit on their hands. Those that are involved, should keep position size small, buy ONLY near support, and maintain stop losses at critical levels (such as the 1101 level on the S&P). I am putting my money where my mouth is (very modestly), and adding a little bit to SLV, BAC, and SINA this morning. Still holding leaps in AAPL and EOG as well, and I even sold a $60 January 2012 put option on WLT to bring in $970 in premium. Best of luck!
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Brainy Smurf Registered: 05/08/04 Posts: 11,483 Loc: Last seen: 11 years, 26 days |
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I got in TVIX yesterday as the market opened At 75, I got out today at just over 80, I see your point with the VIX, I have read alot about it today. I do keep getting myself into things I dont fully understand and it does keep biting me, but I do keep learning. I am far to aggressive, and I keep buying stocks that spike only to find I'm buying them at the top. I believe I am mixing strategies by watching premarket (and market) gainers and going for those, as if I'm daytrading. I'm trying not to do that anymore. 90% of my losses so far are transaction fees.
That made me out of everything but CYS and CS which have been keeping there levels since I got them. I bought into BAC again (sold off up above 7 dollars a share) and this time I'm not selling it. I also bought into NCT because to me it seems to be hitting support levels right now. Its a high paying dividend stock I plan to hold long term like CYS. I dont know what Ill do, I may try SDS if the stock market does look like its going to slide again, but I have no idea whats in store for next week so I am going to try to keep myself in just these positions and cash for now and wait for a possible floor. -------------------- "life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake." Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep) Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use.. How I do grain (old still good tips) Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber Casing layer colonization and overlay Edited by scatmanrav (09/23/11 12:29 PM)
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 4 hours, 3 minutes |
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> I have no idea whats in store for next week so I am going to try to keep myself in just these positions and cash for now
This is smart. In markets like these, less is more. I am heavy cash, but have been putting more money to work today. In addition to the positions I mentioned in my last post, I have added to SLV again, using October $25 calls. SLV tagged its fourth standard deviation band, which is very unusual. Because this is so short term oversold, I choose a short term option contract that is fairly deep in the money, because it will move faster than longer dated contracts that contain a higher proportion of time versus intrinsic value. I am still holding November $39 calls, but they are so far out of the money (and the position was small enough to begin with) that I am holding them strictly as a lottery ticket and would not recommend that anyone buy that high of a strike at this time. I have also sold some October $17 puts on NLY, which if the stock gets put to me, would give me a cost basis of $16.50, a level at which I will be comfortable owning this high yielding stock (at a better than 14% annual yield). I don't expect to do anything else today, as I don't want to take on too much exposure over the weekend. But after such a whipping this week, and the market so far behaving rather constructively today by holding prior support, I am willing to stick my neck out a little bit. If we gap down hard on monday, it is going to hurt, but from what I'm seeing right here, right now, this seems to be an appropriate time to slowly start stepping in. If we move higher on Monday, I will be trading from a position of strength, able to add to my positions with more of a downside cushion since I would be profitable from the positions I put on today. If the market trickles down next week, I will be out of most of my positions on a break of 1101 on the S&P and will probably be on the SDS along with you, unless it's a big GAP down that breaks us through 1101, in which case I would wait for a retracement to test 1100 before going short. Positions (largest to smallest): 48% Cash 30% Long Calls: AAPL Jan 2013 $305, EOG Jan 2014 $75, BAC Jan 2013 $2.5, SLV Oct $25, SLV Nov $39 10% Long Stock: SINA 9% Long Unsecured Peer to Peer debt via LendingClub.com @ 12% APY 3% Short Puts: WLT Jan 2012 $60, NLY Oct $17, AAPL Sep $435
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A few stocks will beat the average but will be weighted down by the falling dow. Dropped 283 today after being flat yesterday and down friday. Gold dropped a little too which shows its still somewhat coupled to the market but i expect it to go back up.
