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geokills
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Re: On Selling Puts (naked / short puts) [Re: pothead_bob]
#15035523 - 09/05/11 10:31 PM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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Excellent, well stated post, pothead. You are of course correct. However, while I have the time, I am aiming to be one of those in the minority slice of the pie that will outperform the market over my active career attempting to do so. Given my burgeoning intrigue with brewing - not to mention the multifaceted flux of life that spires out from the most awkward of angles when one least expects it - that time may be shorter than I think!
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Mr. Bojangles
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Re: On Selling Puts (naked / short puts) [Re: geokills]
#15035696 - 09/05/11 11:11 PM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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Quote:
It is mathematically impossible for all investors to beat the market. There is only so much pie to go around and all investors own the market at any given time. For every winner, there must be a loser, relatively speaking.
Very true...which is why I don't day trade the big boy stocks. The best part about trading pinks and the otc stocks is I don't have to compete with the professionals. It's a part of the market that actually favors the day trader.
It's also pretty immune to market fluctuations...there's always some action going on. I don't recommend trading them though...it's almost a guarantee you'll be too emotional...plus I'll be the one taking the pie
-------------------- "It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong." Francois-Marie Arouet
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pothead_bob
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Re: On Selling Puts (naked / short puts) [Re: geokills]
#15036783 - 09/06/11 07:25 AM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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Thanks, geo. I gotta say, I've read many of your posts in this thread. I may be wrong, but to me it seems like this is as much about being a hobby to you as it is about making money. If it's something you have a passion for and have fun doing, then you shouldn't stifle that. Best of luck to you in being ahead of the pack over your investing career. Have you had much luck in beating the market over the years thus far?
-------------------- No knowledge can be certain, if it is not based upon mathematics or upon some other knowledge which is itself based upon the mathematical sciences. -Leonardo da Vinci (1425-1519) Speak well of your enemies. After all, you made them.
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pothead_bob
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Re: On Selling Puts (naked / short puts) [Re: Mr. Bojangles]
#15036802 - 09/06/11 07:32 AM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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Quote:
Very true...which is why I don't day trade the big boy stocks. The best part about trading pinks and the otc stocks is I don't have to compete with the professionals. It's a part of the market that actually favors the day trader.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I would think that it's only day-traders that get in on pink-sheet stocks. If that's the case, there's gotta be enough losers to balance out the winners. Plus, isn't there a really big spread between the bid/ask price? And don't brokers charge higher fees for trading pink sheet stocks?
Quote:
It's also pretty immune to market fluctuations...there's always some action going on. I don't recommend trading them though...it's almost a guarantee you'll be too emotional...plus I'll be the one taking the pie 
No worries about me trading them. They're much too risky for me and a sure-fire way for me to lose money. I wish you the best of luck in your pursuit, though.
Quote:
Pink Sheets is not a stock exchange. To be quoted via Pink Sheets, companies do not need to fulfill any requirements (e.g. filing financial statements with the SEC). With the exception of foreign issuers, mostly represented by ADRs, the companies quoted in the Pink Sheets tend to be closely held, extremely small, thinly traded, or bankrupt. Most do not meet the minimum U.S. listing requirements for trading on a stock exchange such as the New York Stock Exchange. Many of these companies do not file periodic reports or audited financial statements with the SEC, making it very difficult for investors to find reliable, unbiased information about those companies.
For these reasons the SEC views companies listed on Pink Sheets as "among the most risky investments"[1] and advises potential investors to heavily research the companies in which they plan to invest.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OTC_Markets_Group,_Inc.
-------------------- No knowledge can be certain, if it is not based upon mathematics or upon some other knowledge which is itself based upon the mathematical sciences. -Leonardo da Vinci (1425-1519) Speak well of your enemies. After all, you made them.
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geokills
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Re: On Selling Puts (naked / short puts) [Re: pothead_bob]
#15036891 - 09/06/11 08:08 AM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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Quote:
pothead_bob said:
Have you had much luck in beating the market over the years thus far?
In aggregate and in truth, I am pretty much flat with the market over my trading career. I lost a lot during the 2008 crash, while I was still wet behind the ears, but was able to claw my way back to even during the subsequent rally. Had I known what I know now, I think I would've done quite a bit better during the recovery after the crash. My risk management skills have been honed, and this is how I've been vastly outperforming the market during the latest down draft over the past month. I've taught myself to dash the mental barriers to buying back a stock I just sold (or selling a stock I just bought), in order to capitalize on the prevailing trend as it unfolds; doing my best to take emotion out of the equation and trade with discipline. Most importantly, I have learned to recognize that different market environments necessarily require different trading strategies. That is, the importance of knowing when to sit on one's hands versus knowing when to be aggressive.
It is true that I take as much enjoyment from the challenge and personal discipline required to succeed in this gig, as I do from any profits made. Learning to evaluate the psychology of the collective crowd that makes a market (and how to react to or anticipate trades based on that psychology within the context of the macro-economic and sector-specific landscape), has taught me a lot about my own emotional construct. Basically, if I can get myself to the point where I can trade completely stress free, I'm betting that this level of emotional self control will rub off on other aspects of my life to make for a more harmonious and emotionally balanced life experience.
Some people go to a shrink... I just play the market!
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scatmanrav
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Re: On Selling Puts (naked / short puts) [Re: geokills]
#15036944 - 09/06/11 08:23 AM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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Well I bought in a small position at CS since its at a low and its been a good steady performer at a higher level so we'll see what happens!
Also a small position in CNET, I was looking at it early this morning and almost got in when it had only gained 5%, now its up to 10%. Dunno if itll go much higher, but I think it will a little. This one I set a limit at 1.60 and bid is 1.67 so I may not get in if it just goes up.
Also SPMD, I've been watching this one waiting for it to go up, I think it bounced. CS and SPMD were market orders, I did CNET Limit just to try it.
This gets rid of most of my little bit of cash I put in for now.
Ive been looking at VIFL for a few weeks now and its just been going up, but I havnt been getting in because I keep thinking itll hit resistence and go back down, but it just keeps going up.
Edited by scatmanrav (09/06/11 08:42 AM)
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pothead_bob
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Re: On Selling Puts (naked / short puts) [Re: geokills]
#15036947 - 09/06/11 08:24 AM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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Quote:
In aggregate and in truth, I am pretty much flat with the market over my trading career. I lost a lot during the 2008 crash, while I was still wet behind the ears, but was able to claw my way back to even during the subsequent rally. Had I known what I know now, I think I would've done quite a bit better during the recovery after the crash.
This is also what happened to me. I just started really getting into investing a few months before that crash. Talk about painting investing in a bad light for a new guy. In reality, I should have been happy for the opportunity to accumulate at lower prices and continued to buy all the way down to the bottom.
I think from then to now and including all my spectacularly bad investments, my annualized return was something like 3.5%, but since the market came back a little, it's probably higher. It was up over 5% in July. My annualized returns are still very sensitive to market fluctuations since I've only been in the game for a little over 4 years.
Over just the last year, my portfolio has beaten the market considerably (by market, I mean the Wilshire 5000 index fund). This is due, mainly, to my inclusion of short-term federal bonds, mid-term corporate bonds, and precious metals in my portfolio. I'm looking forward to at least keeping pace with the market in years and decades to come.
Quote:
It is true that I take as much enjoyment from the challenge and personal discipline required to succeed in this gig, as I do from any profits made. Learning to evaluate the psychology of the collective crowd that makes a market (and how to react to or anticipate trades based on that psychology within the context of the macro-economic and sector-specific landscape), has taught me a lot about my own emotional construct. Basically, if I can get myself to the point where I can trade completely stress free, I'm betting that this level of emotional self control will rub off on other aspects of my life to make for a more harmonious and emotionally balanced life experience.
Some people go to a shrink... I just play the market! 
Very zen like, geo. Kind of like how Buckethead says he is an amazingly virtuos guitar player due to his study of martial arts. Keep at it.
-------------------- No knowledge can be certain, if it is not based upon mathematics or upon some other knowledge which is itself based upon the mathematical sciences. -Leonardo da Vinci (1425-1519) Speak well of your enemies. After all, you made them.
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geokills
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Re: On Selling Puts (naked / short puts) [Re: pothead_bob]
#15037029 - 09/06/11 08:52 AM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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AAPL holding up remarkably well. Still in its longer term uptrend, it bounced right off of its support line this morning. In fact, my Jan 2013 call option on AAPL is the sole position in my portfolio right now. I could see AAPL falling to $350 without much ado if the market continues to break down, but for now it is outperforming the S&P by about 2% on the day.
I don't imagine I'll be doing too much market-wise during this shortened week. So much negative pressure coming out of Europe, the Fed and the President slated to speak on Thursday. Frankly, I don't see them saying much that would be received positively. Even if there is a grand plan posed by the President, the odds of it sailing through both houses of our babbling congress seems unlikely.
NLY is in the buyable end of its two year trading range, now yielding over 15% annually at the current dividend payout. Be mindful that new government regulations may pose a headwind to mortgage REITS such as Annaly. Still, their experienced management team has navigated difficult waters before.
Edit: I'm taking a quick stab at MCP, on its bounce at the 200 day, with a stop below $51.20.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
Edited by geokills (09/06/11 09:27 AM)
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Hotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for August 30, 2011 - S&P Testing resistance, shorting APKT [Re: Hotnuts]
#15039442 - 09/06/11 06:39 PM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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Quote:
Hotnuts said: I'm nearly 100% sure, that equities will continue to head higher. I know it seems a little nerve racking and we could surely have some more consolidation sideways, with an upside bias. Not to mention the end of the week employment #'s. But as i've been mentioning, I don't see anything in the interbank credit markets, that waves a red flag. I'm long big time from 1160 and am long US dollars with yen, because i'm expecting mild economic performance (2 or so %) and very high inflation, due to loan growth (the type of loans, more importantly), outpacing poor economic performance. LONG STORY! Both of which, are negatives for t-note prices, sending yields up. Great for usd/jpy. When the high inflation hits corporate margins? We'll see. But do note, this could get out of hand, quickly. Pay close attention to the upcoming Consumer Credit data, due out on the 8th. The types of credit being issued in the US, affects ISM-S quickly, due out on the 6th. So, that's a minor preview.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for August 30, 2011 - S&P Testing resistance, shorting APKT [Re: Hotnuts]
#15039918 - 09/06/11 08:23 PM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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We had a pretty nice bullish reversal today, and there are quite a few charts that looks constructive (AAPL and SINA immediately come to mind). However, the German court ruling on Greek financing tonight is a wild card, as is Obama's speech on Thursday. I expect that provided Europe doesn't blow up over night, I'll be adding long exposure for a flip tomorrow, but I will be a weak hand and will be out of most of my positions before Obama speaks on Thursday.
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Hotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for August 30, 2011 - S&P Testing resistance, shorting APKT [Re: geokills]
#15039988 - 09/06/11 08:43 PM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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Obama's speech, is a clear cut dud, of the same ole' government intervention. To the tune of 300 billion. I voted for the guy, but he's a clear cut disaster. What the House decides to do with it, is another story. Impossible that the EU, just allow themselves to self destruct. Something positive will happen there. I had a good feeling that ISM-services would be solid on bank lending and sure enough, it was. But, Prices Paid component was hot @ 67. We're gonna get inflation, due to the imbalance of commodity prices/growth. Hell, that's obvious. We're going into recession, just not yet. And it will be due to high inflation, imo. We're in a lose/lose situation, at the current fiscal policies. Pay attention to interbank health. When interbank health deteriorates and banks start hording money, not lending to one another, raising borrowing costs among them and spreads in 3 month Libor/OIS and TED start to blow out, raise caution. Eurodollar is another indicator of interbank stress. Not eur/usd, but international deposits.
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Bambi
Friendly Forrest Animal




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Re: Stock Update for August 30, 2011 - S&P Testing resistance, shorting APKT [Re: Hotnuts]
#15042962 - 09/07/11 01:55 PM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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I tried to short VE today... actually timed it right at the days high. Its a French company, so any bad news in europe would cause it to drop back to yesterdays lows really quickly. Also, i bet it will be dropping after Obama's speech. Problem is, my account is not set up with margins. Dang, i hate to sit here knowing that i missed out on the opportunity.
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"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for August 30, 2011 - S&P Testing resistance, shorting APKT [Re: Bambi]
#15043684 - 09/07/11 04:04 PM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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Don't even sweat it man. The market is open every day. A missed opportunity could turn out to be a blessing, as you'll have dry powder available for a (potentially) even better opportunity! Rushing things will typically lead to lost capital. I don't have much to say about the market today, other than it was clearly strong on the news coming out of Europe regarding Greece and Italy. Tomorrow is Obama's speech and I don't think I'm going to be doing much of anything to be honest. I'll probably take the time to go for a nice little hike in the morning, before it gets flippin' hot (it's over 100 degrees right now where I am!).
Here's a nifty quote from Mr. Dan Fitzpatrick, opining on tomorrow's speech and our general economic issues:Quote:
I would be amazed to jaw-dropping proportions if POTUS even mentioned nat gas one time...or oil drilling, production, exploration.... I will be equally amazed if he does not mention "green jobs" and the 2011 equivalent of "shovel ready projects". From everything I have read (and I have read a lot because I am trying to game the market's reaction to the speech), he will propose extending the payroll tax credit, extending unemployment benefits, and proposing some type of tax breaks to entice the evil millionaires to hire people (and then, of course, rant against tax breaks for the millionaires and billionaires in 2012).
As I noted in last weekend's "Stocks and Jocks" radio show with Jon, Pete and Guy, "If 'they' had a magic bullet for what ails the economy, don'tcha think they'd have used it by now?"
There is nothing new under the sun.
Dan
(Bottom line [at least, my bottom line]:
This entire crisis is a crisis of debt. And where there are debtors, there are creditors. And when debtors go too far in the hole, they can't pay back their debt (thus hurting the creditors...i.e., the source of money), nor can they borrow more. So they spend less because they have less. Because they spend less, businesses that rely on revenue (i.e., every business on this planet) make less...and they hire less. All the while, those who are unemployed slip farther and farther away from the job market as their skills deteriorate and fail to keep pace with the evolution of technology. [Think Tom Hanks trying to swim fast enough to catch Wilson. The guy just couldn't swim fast enough and finally Wilson floated away, never to be seen again].
Contrary to what Uncle Ben says, unemployment is most assuredly a structural problem. Bernanke is batting 1000 when it comes to being wrong. He was wrong about the housing crisis ("It is contained"), he was wrong about his QE2 (the only proof that any of it worked is to assume the counter-factual [that things would have been worse had he done nothing].
When we pay people not to work, they don't work. (I am generalizing here...so those of you who are looking for jobs can consider yourself excluded from my general comment). Consider Denmark. They had an unemployment problem. When they cut back the period of time people could qualify for unemployment, people magically found work when their unemployment benefits ran out. Who'da thunk it. Here, we are doing the opposite. The employment situation is hard, so we are paying people to sit it out. We are paying people to stay in the stands rather than get out on the field and get dirty.
And as long as that is our approach, our population will slip further and further away from the skills necessary to actually produce something in an increasingly competitive world, just as Wilson floated away from a bearded and sunburned Tom Hanks.
When we finally get tough and accept the fact that an individual's place in life is largely (though certainly not always) a function of the decisions they have made, then we will be back to a merit-based economy where failure is a viable outcome. Yes...failure. The counterpoint to failure is success. You cannot have one without the other.
The world of politics (not just U.S., I'm talking Earth) negates a merit-based economy because such a system sucks power away from the politician. We have been "fighting the war on poverty" since Johnson's silly "Great Society" concept. That is a war we continue to lose because the players keep changing. As folks lift themselves out of poverty (happens every day), they are replaced by newcomers who are "poor" (which means they only have one refrigerator and an air conditioner stuck in the window of the room in which they watch television all day). And this constant replenishment of poverty stricken people can only be broken by one method: Halt reproduction. As long as poor people continue to breed, their offspring will be poor. That's a function of...reality.
So, unless you want to go one better than China (and bar anyone from having even one child), the approach to fighting poverty is the same approach to getting us out of the negative feedback loop we are in: Create an environment where hard work and initiative are not penalized; rather, hard work and initiative is rewarded. And those who do the work, take the initiative and above all, TAKE THE RISK, will have a chance to prosper. And in their prosperity, they'll have more work to do than they can possibly do by themselves. So, to solve their problem of "too much work, too little time" they will do the only sensible thing:
They will create a job.
Multiply that dynamic by simply allowing people to work in their own self-interest rather than co-opting their efforts on behalf of "the greater good", and you create very distinct classes of people.
1. Those who took a risk that ultimately worked out for them. They are successful business owners who hire others. 2. Those who took a risk that did NOT work out. They are hired by others...or they keep trying until they finally do succeed. (I fall into this category). 3. Those who really don't want to take a risk, but are certainly willing to work hard. They are hired by group 1. 4. Those who want to sit around on their butts all day long and do nothing but eat Twinkies and watch Oprah re-runs. 5. Those who, for one reason or another, are unable to work -- accident, illness, disability, obsolete skill set (which can be fixed through education), etc.
When our system rewards Groups 1-3, penalizes Group 4 rather than mollycoddle them, and cares for group 5 as any developed society should, then we will have an economic system that is vibrant and growing. In such a system, many who fall into Group 4 will ultimately figure out that they can better improve their own lives by working and making better decisions than by waiting for a handout.
===============
If I hear a speech like that, I'll go long fully margined. As it is, I am trading with alligator arms -- not reaching too far for anything...and I will want to sell into any post-speech rally.
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Hotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for August 30, 2011 - S&P Testing resistance, shorting APKT [Re: Bambi]
#15043708 - 09/07/11 04:10 PM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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Here you go, traders. Very key indicators, for interbank stress. Hope you were long today! ;-) There's plenty of stuff on the net, explaining the spreads. You don't have to over-do it on the knowledge. Although, it's some very interesting stuff. Use 3+ year charts. So, you can compare with start of Lehman collapse.


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Hotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for August 30, 2011 - S&P Testing resistance, shorting APKT [Re: Hotnuts]
#15043715 - 09/07/11 04:13 PM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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Bambi
Friendly Forrest Animal




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Re: Stock Update for August 30, 2011 - S&P Testing resistance, shorting APKT [Re: Hotnuts]
#15043773 - 09/07/11 04:25 PM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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Thanks Geo, i know that it could be a blessing, but im just irritated i didnt have the foresight to sign up for this earlier. I had been planing since it dropped yesterday to short it at the height of its bounce (which i believe to have been today). We will see i suppose, if nothing else, i am gonna see how i would have done had i been able to.
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"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben
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Stonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for August 30, 2011 - S&P Testing resistance, shorting APKT [Re: Bambi]
#15044167 - 09/07/11 05:48 PM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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Bambi, my best advice would be cool your jets. Enthusiasm leads to mistakes. Go the slow cautious route if you can stand it.
I agree with that quote from dan fitzpatrick and with what hn is saying. It's what i've been saying for a long time. It just took a while for the experts to catch up with me Actually, others have been saying it for a while but too many have not been listening. I too think bernanke is a disaster and a tool. When almost all the indicators look bearish for the long term, do not go long term bullish. I am glad to see that my forecast of upward movement for at least another week and a half if not more looks like it might come about. HN also sees it that way. The recent market dives were unexpected but not unusual. You have to stick with your strategy through stuff like that and if you are wrong, you pay.
The only long term winner i see is gold and only for the next few years. Possibly longer than that but we will have to see. If massive inflation kicks in, which it almost has to do, gold will skyrocket in a way that makes it's recent activity look like a warm up.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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Bambi
Friendly Forrest Animal




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Re: Stock Update for August 30, 2011 - S&P Testing resistance, shorting APKT [Re: Stonehenge]
#15044607 - 09/07/11 07:23 PM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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Haha i know, but im only talking a little bit of money to invest in it, just to learn my lessons. Ive learned a lot since i started in late july. much more patient now than i was back then. experience is the best way to learn even if it means losing in the process.
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"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben
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Hotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for August 30, 2011 - S&P Testing resistance, shorting APKT [Re: Bambi]
#15045062 - 09/07/11 08:44 PM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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See any stress in those charts? No. Those spreads, are the 3 top indicators in interbank lending, imho. Recall me being ultra bearish and talking about the previous head and shoulders pattern "crashing", in which it did? I hate to admit it, but I missed out on the majority of the previous crash. I was looking at the credit markets and right before the crash, 15 billion in Consumer Credit was issued. Far from recessionary. I got caught slipping on the loose credit, but in my defense, thought I had my 2 week vacation planned out right, because of that number. Another key reason I rag US equities as a "leading, leading indicator". You've heard me bitch about the S&P's ability to forecast anything but stupidity, numerous times. So, i'll leave it a that. U.S. equities, are a very dumb and greedy market. Pathetic. Embarrassing.
Edited by Hotnuts (09/07/11 09:42 PM)
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Mr. Bojangles
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Re: On Selling Puts (naked / short puts) [Re: pothead_bob]
#15048445 - 09/08/11 02:20 PM (12 years, 4 months ago) |
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Quote:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I would think that it's only day-traders that get in on pink-sheet stocks. If that's the case, there's gotta be enough losers to balance out the winners. Plus, isn't there a really big spread between the bid/ask price? And don't brokers charge higher fees for trading pink sheet stocks?
You'd be surprised how many traders are in the pennys for investment purposes. If you ever decide to go bottom feeding and look on ihub, you'll see just how many people are "loading up while its cheap" 
The spread sucks if the volume is low...but on high volume the spread tightens up. Which is why you should only be daytrading those things...hell, in two hours the volume could drop enough that you can't liquidate and are stuck holding a bag.
I'm hardly ever in a position for more than 10 minutes. High volume, PR news, stock pumpers and an increasing pps equal a quick 10 minute, 5, 10, or 20% trade. Get greedy/emotional and hold any longer and you're liable to hit the sell-off. And then people make the mistake of holding thinking it's going to go back up when they should've just cut their losses after the third red candlestick. I use varying strategies but that's the general gist that keeps me in the green everyday.
The fee's part is the worst...I started off trading with zecco because they were really cheap at the time...now I think they charge an extra $2 per trade for stocks under $1.00. But once I worked up to $10k I opened an Interactive Brokers account which is a flat rate all across the board. You just need the 10k minimum.
-------------------- "It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong." Francois-Marie Arouet
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