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OfflineBambi
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Re: Stock Update for August 23, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: scatmanrav]
    #14970287 - 08/24/11 10:12 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

scatmanrav said:
I'll probably start off with a few long buys of some companies that pay good dividends. Trying to research the highest paying dividends right now.




Most of my portfolio lies in Armour Residential Reit (ARR). They pay 19.07% dividend. The stock price is at about 7.40ish every day, its been a very steady stock. the 52 wk highs and lows are only off by 1.53 which is just like 18% swing or so. I think that its great considering the drop we have had. Also, the ex date is coming up in less than 3 weeks. Check it out, it might interest you


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Offlinescatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for August 23, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: Bambi]
    #14971409 - 08/24/11 02:51 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Yeah I guess it would be day trading(?), not high frequency..sooo much terminology. I do enjoy learning it, I like numbers.

Ex date?

See I see some people saying 5-6% are great dividends, some of the highest, then I see some companies paying 10-21% dividends. Why isnt everyone into these if theyre paying 4 times the amount? Seems like they pay for themselves..

After looking a bit it seems residential REITs go up as the housing prices go up, but if the housing prices go down, so do the REITs, so kind of high risk. Still worth getting into a bit I think, especially these days. I think some of the high yield ones I found people mentioning online dont have very good liquidity either so thats also a reason for not investing in them. Did I answer my own question? :retawed:


--------------------
"life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake."

Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep)
Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use..
How I do grain (old still good tips)
Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber
Casing layer colonization and overlay


Edited by scatmanrav (08/24/11 03:26 PM)


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OfflineBambi
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Re: Stock Update for August 23, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: scatmanrav]
    #14971499 - 08/24/11 03:13 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

REITS have to pay out something like 95% of profits out as dividends, thus a 19% yield. the ex date (ex-dividend date) is basically the day where the company decides who gets the dividend. anyone who owns the stock going into that day will get dividends, even if the stock is sold on that day.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for August 24, 2011 - Constructive, but Friday looms. [Re: scatmanrav]
    #14971718 - 08/24/11 04:10 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)





Constructive close to the market today, especially with financials gaining some traction and gold continuing to cool down. 






I am building a position in BAC, on account of the beating it has taken over the lingering liability
fears from its Countrywide acquisition.  Bought November $6 calls, managing my risk through a limited
position size.  I will continue to add to the position on weakness, but only if the $6.30 level holds, on a
closing basis.  The move today was a solid one, on good volume, and should see the stock ripe for a
continued relief rally.


I was fortunate to have caught AAPL for another quick trade in the late afternoon as it popped out of this textbook volatility squeeze:

   


Because both the S&P and AAPL are running up into an area of resistance, and because we have the
unknown variable of what Ben Bernanke may say in his Friday speech, I do not see a reason to hold the
position overnight, especially since I still have exposure to the stock via my 2013 call option.  This cautious
stance is also why I left room to add to my BAC Nov $6 call position on weakness, though I will look to exit
the BAC call position if the stock closes below $6.30.

I am looking to finally sell that September $380 AAPL call on any strength tomorrow (to complete my
calendar spread), since I am anticipating weakness on Friday as we go into the weekend and digest the
Fed remarks. [Edit: Should've sold that call today.  Stock down 5% after hours on news of Steve Jobs
stepping down from his position as CEO.]





Quote:

I see some companies paying 10-21% dividends.  Why isnt everyone into these if theyre paying 4 times the amount? Seems like they pay for themselves..




Everyone with a longer term outlook should maintain a place in their portfolio for such high yieldering
stocks, but make no mistake that there is risk involved with every trade, high yielders being no exception. 

Generally speaking, a portfolio full of high yielding stocks is a more conservative and stable strategy for
investors who prefer to take a hands off approach to the market.  In the current environment -- where our
interest rates will remain low for several years as mandated by Fed policy -- money will tend to seek out
these high yielding stocks with greater zeal.  However, interest rate changes, the threat of dilutive secondary
stock offerings, as well as company specific earnings (and thus potential reductions in the dividend rate) all
pose risks to the high yield portfolio.  These companies work with lots of debt.  With a global banking system
as volatile and seemingly fragile as it has become, companies that rely on the debt markets do incur some
measure of increased risk.


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Offlinescatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for August 23, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: Bambi]
    #14971816 - 08/24/11 04:31 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

OK I found this "A stock’s ex-dividend date is the first day an owner can sell the stock without losing the rights to its upcoming dividend. Obviously, it’s also the first day a buyer who purchases the stock will not receive that same dividend."

So you can buy stock the day before the exdate, then sell it on that date and get the dividends from that stock? Couldnt someone just do that with all dividend paying stocks, buy it the day before the exdate and sell on the exdate? I could only assume the stock would go down on the exdate to compensate for this, but still you could hold onto dividend stocks for a week or so until they went back up.

(EDIT after reading geos comment):
I am understanding this more. I found alot of these high yielding stocks have a D/E thats very high, like ARR that was mentioned is at 8.72. Alot of them seem to be high, to much debt compared to equity. The lowest D/E on the top 10 REITs chart I found is .04 in ANH and they have a 13.89% dividend which is good, and seems safer.


--------------------
"life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake."

Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep)
Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use..
How I do grain (old still good tips)
Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber
Casing layer colonization and overlay


Edited by scatmanrav (08/24/11 04:43 PM)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for August 23, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: scatmanrav]
    #14972451 - 08/24/11 06:25 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Couldnt someone just do that with all dividend paying stocks, buy it the day before the exdate and sell on the exdate?




If only it were so easy.  Unfortunately, stocks magically tend to lose as much value as the dividend they're paying out, on the ex date.  While you may be able to play the "dividend capture" game with some success, I have not found it to be a reliable strategy.  Better to just hold the stocks that you want for their dividend, and diversify the rest of your capital into some growth oriented names.  For those with time on their hands, understanding chart patterns and enacting short term trades based on the price action will (in my experience) reward you much more than attempting to capture dividends.  Furthermore, if you don't hold a dividend paying stock for at least 30 days, you are not entitled to the benefit of the lower dividend tax rate, and will instead be taxed as if it were an ordinary short term capital gain (i.e. at your nominal tax rate).


On an unrelated note, LNKD looks ripe for shorting.  It was down over 5% today, which is massive underperformance relative to the major indicies.  It's sitting right on support as of the close today, so on a move below $74, I am planning to be short for a trade.  Alternately, if the market (and LNKD) is strong, I would look to open up a short position closer to $80.

Another opportunity for shorting is APKT, on a move up to $48-$50-ish, where I would expect the stock to roll over and resume its downtrend.  On the weekly chart (longer term), I could see this thing getting down to $25 - $30 without much hassle.


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Re: Stock Update for August 24, 2011 - Constructive, but Friday looms. [Re: geokills]
    #14980708 - 08/26/11 06:45 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
<img src=https://files.shroomery.org/files/11-34/422216763-spx.gif>




What program are you using to get these graphs?


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for August 24, 2011 - Constructive, but Friday looms. [Re: sofa_king_happy]
    #14980884 - 08/26/11 08:16 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Those charts are screen shots from the Think or Swim java based trading platform provided by TDAmeritrade.


Market is slightly down on the heels of Bernanke's prepared statement (which didn't really say anything other than "we have tools and we will use them when we believe it is appropriate").  The market reaction is really rather subdued.  I am taking some trades intraday, but plan to close out all trading positions ahead of the weekend due to persisting concerns stemming from the EU.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for August 24, 2011 - Constructive, but Friday looms. [Re: geokills]
    #14982244 - 08/26/11 02:30 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Wow, that turned out to be a really strong day.  But, as intended, I have closed all of my trading positions as we move into the weekend, despite the fact that I would not be surprised to see some follow through rallying over the next week or two.  Interesting to see gold and other metals rallying today even as money came back into equities.  We must keep the big picture in mind (look at the weekly charts), and note that the market is still in a marked downtrend.  I would look for the S&P to move up toward 1250, where I anticipate it will roll over into a resumption of the downtrend.


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Re: Stock Update for August 24, 2011 - Constructive, but Friday looms. [Re: geokills]
    #14982574 - 08/26/11 03:34 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Once again the market confounded the smart money bears and finished up again. The 3 to 4 week period of gains is still with us. It's not that the bears were totally wrong, they just had their timing off. What we see now is what i spoke of a while back as the optimists thinking its safe to go back in the water. "the market always comes back" except when it doesn't. Smart money is grabbing quick profits and trying to figure when the inevitable downturn comes. For what its worth, i say the optimistic money will run out at the 3 to 4 week mark after last weeks turmoil. At about the 4 week mark i'm seeing a fairly steep dropoff and then of course the bargain hunters produce a bounce which is short lived. More drops after that but not as dramatic and i'm looking for a gradual downturn which may last to the end of the year and beyond.

I wish i had good news for the long term but it looks to me like the market is going through or will go through a major correction. We saw part of it the previous 2 or 3 weeks. As the supply of bulls runs short and the optimists lose their ardor, the correction takes place. I look for a dow below 10,000 in todays money. I'm thinking the next few years will not be too exciting but a few stocks of course will beat the average.

Why the correction? Stay tuned.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for AAPL [Re: geokills]
    #14994137 - 08/28/11 10:48 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Just wanted to make a quick mention of AAPL:


     


This is one of very few stocks that has held its 50 day moving average throughout the turmoil of the past
month.  The fear of Steve Jobs stepping down from the helm of Apple has always weighed heavily on this
stock, and is probably one of the reasons it's price isn't significantly higher, given the company's low PE,
outstanding growth rate in conjunction with its relatively small market share, which gives it plenty of room
to continue to expand.  Steve Jobs set into motion his retirement Wednesday after the market closed, which
saw the stock trade down to $350 after hours, but remarkably, did nothing but move higher ever since.

Looking at the weekly chart (right), one can see that a volatility squeeze had developed after AAPL traded in
a narrow range and consolidated throughout much of 2011, until breaking out of the range on their latest
earnings release (and subsequently falling back to test the breakout during this past month of market turmoil).
Friday saw the stock break out of its wedge on the daily chart (left), and I would take any retracement to the
$370 level as an opportunity to add exposure to this name.  If I didn't already own a lot of AAPL, I would
be initiating a position right here.  It seems that the market had already priced in Steve's departure, given
that the stock is being bought now that the official news has broken.

Quote:

August 24, 2011
Letter from Steve Jobs

To the Apple Board of Directors and the Apple Community:

I have always said if there ever came a day when I could no longer meet my duties and expectations as
Apple’s CEO, I would be the first to let you know. Unfortunately, that day has come.

I hereby resign as CEO of Apple. I would like to serve, if the Board sees fit, as Chairman of the Board,
director and Apple employee.

As far as my successor goes, I strongly recommend that we execute our succession plan and name Tim
Cook as CEO of Apple.

I believe Apple’s brightest and most innovative days are ahead of it. And I look forward to watching and
contributing to its success in a new role.

I have made some of the best friends of my life at Apple, and I thank you all for the many years of being
able to work alongside you.

Steve




It is extremely unfortunate, and honestly quite sad to see this genius of a man facing his mortality at a
relatively young age.  You can click here to see a picture that was allegedly taken on Friday, two days
after he announced his resignation as Apple's CEO.  There is no question that the loss of Steve Jobs is going
to be a pretty major loss for Apple.  However, Apple and Steve have cultivated a very positive and cohesive
working environment, rich with extremely intelligent and experienced executives, and I think that the
dominance that the company has realized with the products they've introduced over the past few years
is far from over.  I wish Steve and his family all of the best, and hope that he is not suffering during what
appears to be quite a difficult time.

For those of you who have never seen it, I highly recommend listening to Steve's speech
from Stanford University's 2005 graduation commencement.  It is truly inspiring.




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Re: Stock Update for AAPL [Re: geokills]
    #14994260 - 08/28/11 11:21 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

thanks for the link. great speech, im sure there were a lot of jaws on the floor when he started talking about death to people in their mid twenties :lol:


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Stock Update for August 29, 2011 - Calendar spreads on AAPL and BAC, S&P approaching resistance [Re: geokills]
    #14996481 - 08/29/11 01:03 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

As much as I love AAPL stock, and as bright as I believe its future to be, I am completing my calendar spread by selling a September $400 call on the stock, which brought in $530.  I did this because the market is generally nearing resistance (at the top of its recent trading range between 1100 - 1200), and because AAPL is under-performing the major averages today.  So long as AAPL is below $400 by September 17th, I will keep that entire $530 premium for the $400 call that I sold.  If AAPL really takes off and finds itself above $400 on Sept 17, the January 2013 $305 call I bought earlier in the month will be exercised to cover the shares I will be forced to deliver on the September $400 call I sold.  I still get to keep the $530 on the short call, as well as another $800+ in gains on the Jan 2013 $305 long call that I'm holding (which is already handsomely profitable).  If I get my Jan 2013 call taken away from me, I'll just look to buy it back on weakness and repeat the strategy.  Otherwise, I'll simply sell another out of the money call next month (for October expiration) to repeat the strategy without having to re-purchase my Jan 2013 $305... and I'll continue to do this every month in efforts to take in enough premium to cover my entire cost basis on the Jan 2013 $305 call.

I am implementing a similar strategy on my BAC November $6 calls, by selling the September $9 calls for $20 a pop today.

While I could see the market eek out another day of gains tomorrow to tag 1225, it's been up quite strong for the past several sessions and so I would expect some profit-taking (as well as the "I want my money back" crowd) to start putting negative pressure on prices.  Make no mistake, we are bouncing and have formed a short term bottom at 1100-1120, but we are still in a downtrend on the weekly charts.  I see 1225 - 1250 on the S&P as formidable resistance that will likely have us rolling back over to resume the downward trajectory.


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Stock Update for August 30, 2011 - S&P Testing resistance, shorting APKT [Re: geokills]
    #15005769 - 08/31/11 09:42 AM (12 years, 4 months ago)

Alright traders, the S&P has had a mondo run off of the short term bottom, but we are now approaching resistance.  My short calls on AAPL and BAC are working to partially hedge (and thus lower my cost basis in) my longer term call options on those names as intended.  Being the end of August, we have seen some consistent buying pressure as is typical at the end of the month period.  However, September is seasonally a weak month for the market, and given the aggregate downtrend of the overall market that accelerated in July, I think we'll have a good lot of churning to do between 1120 - 1250 before we break out of this trading range.

Thus, I have today initiated a short position on APKT, which I will add to if we see the stock break down through $46.50 on increasing volume.  APKT has been in a fairly violent downtrend for several months and is now running into the downtrending resistance that began on July 7th, followed by the lower highs on July 19th and August 15th.  Because the advance over the past several trading sessions has been on declining volume, I am looking for the stock to fail here at $50 and have thus initiated a short position, which I intend to add to if we see APKT fall below yesterday's intraday low on increasing volume.  In conjunction with the S&P nearing resistance (and the NASDAQ already being there) I think we see more downside on APKT.  Stalking November $50 puts for a better fill as well.

Click here to see a visual representation of the APKT trade: http://fsc.bz/Gqp

I have also initiated positions in the SDS (inverse leveraged ETF of the S&P500), and even a few October $120 Puts on the SPY.


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Re: Stock Update for August 30, 2011 - S&P Testing resistance, shorting APKT [Re: geokills]
    #15006372 - 08/31/11 12:15 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

You might be pulling the trigger a little too soon, geo. I do see a drop coming but i figure it will not be for a couple weeks yet if not longer. I plan to go short or just buy puts when i feel it's near the top. But the market is too irrational not only when it's going down but also when it's irrationally going up. Think of vast herds of people flocking from near zero interest bank accounts to the market after the recent spate of articles saying in effect "happy days are here again". Until the hammer comes down again which it will. Being too far ahead of the crowd can be as bad as too far behind. But who can predict it that closely?

I plan to sell my puts before the bounce. As for gold, we will have to see.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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Re: Stock Update for August 30, 2011 - S&P Testing resistance, shorting APKT [Re: Stonehenge]
    #15007865 - 08/31/11 05:04 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

> You might be pulling the trigger a little too soon, geo.

I am a fairly active trader, and my methodology will not work for everyone.  For this moment in time, I am
trading almost entirely technically.  Fundamentals don't seem to hold a lot of bearing when aggregate market
volatility is as high as it is right now.  The fact that the S&P has retraced 50% of its July crash, has been up
seven of the last eight trading sessions and is now running into resistance as well as the upper bollinger band
(which contains 90%+ of closing prices), makes me fairly confident that we are due for some give back to the
downside.  It also allows me conveniently close placement of a stop in the event that I am wrong.


   



Technology and semiconductor stocks look particularly ripe for downside, since the SMH (semiconductor ETF)
has been lagging recently, and the Nasdaq (or analogous QQQ tech ETF) is also running into its upper
bollinger band, as well as its 50 and 200 day moving averages.  My short position on APKT common stock
is in fact already up by 3% as of today's close.


   



Ultimately, nobody knows where we're going, and I won't fall victim to the idea that I can predict where
the market or any given stock may be heading.  I can however, identify risk and manage it appropriately.
Right now, it appears to me that risk is tipped slightly in favor of downside, so that is how I am beginning
to position myself.  Nevertheless, because we have not received confirmation on this point, I am treading
lightly with small positions.  This works well for me, because as my positions begin to work, I can have
more confidence adding to them since I have a buffer of profits built in.  And if they don't work, I will be
stopped out with minimal loss, ready to trade another day.


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Re: Stock Update for August 30, 2011 - S&P Testing resistance, shorting APKT [Re: geokills]
    #15008074 - 08/31/11 05:43 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

Sure, that can work. You are just trying to scalp a little profit and run. Nothing wrong with that. I would not be surprised to see some little dips before the big dipper, so to speak.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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Re: Stock Update for August 30, 2011 - S&P Testing resistance, shorting APKT [Re: Stonehenge]
    #15009652 - 08/31/11 11:20 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

I'm nearly 100% sure, that equities will continue to head higher. I know it seems a little nerve racking and we could surely have some more consolidation sideways, with an upside bias. Not to mention the end of the week employment #'s. But as i've been mentioning, I don't see anything in the interbank credit markets, that waves a red flag. I'm long big time from 1160 and am long US dollars with yen, because i'm expecting mild economic performance (2 or so %) and very high inflation, due to loan growth (the type of loans, more importantly), outpacing poor economic performance. LONG STORY! Both of which, are negatives for t-note prices, sending yields up. Great for usd/jpy. When the high inflation hits corporate margins? We'll see. But do note, this could get out of hand, quickly. Pay close attention to the upcoming Consumer Credit data, due out on the 8th. The types of credit being issued in the US, affects ISM-S quickly, due out on the 6th. So, that's a minor preview.


Edited by Hotnuts (08/31/11 11:21 PM)


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Offlinesofa_king_happy
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Registered: 01/29/10 Happy 14th Shroomiversary!
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Re: Stock Update for August 30, 2011 - S&P Testing resistance, shorting APKT [Re: Hotnuts]
    #15011133 - 09/01/11 09:45 AM (12 years, 4 months ago)

GeoKills, what do you think about OLED related stocks? in particular PANL
http://caps.fool.com/Ticker/PANL.aspx

..im debating weather or not its too late to jump on this wagon


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for August 30, 2011 - S&P Testing resistance, shorting APKT [Re: sofa_king_happy]
    #15011682 - 09/01/11 12:05 PM (12 years, 4 months ago)

I don't really have any thoughts on PANL in particular, except to say that it is not a company that I would personally want to invest in, since they are not profitable (their earnings are negative).  I simply wouldn't want to take on such a speculative position in this difficult market environment.  The semiconductor industry in general has been weak, and one of the LED industry leaders that I watch, CREE, has also been in a marked downtrend for some time now.  I realize the OLED product may differentiate a company like PANL, however I am not well versed enough in the industry to have any confidence in this assumption.


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