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OfflineBambi
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: scatmanrav]
    #14958032 - 08/21/11 07:04 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

I just recently signed up with ScotTrade. So far i really like it. i think there is a minimum of $500 to deposit in your account (not positive though, I opened with 10k and that was way over the minimum). It costs $7 for every buy regardless of # of shares. The site is pretty easy to use i've found. Also if you use the referral program, you and the person who refers you both get 3 free trades, which is neat and id be more than happy to refer you :laugh: .

Both my father and step father recommended that i get ScotTrade, yet they both use AmeriTrade. Upon researching the topic i also liked ScotTrade the most. Im not exactly sure what youre looking for in a Stock Broker, but hope i helped


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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: Bambi]
    #14958135 - 08/21/11 07:28 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Very well may have, thanks :smile: Depending on others input, if I go with that I'll do the refer thing.

And now my brain is hurting from all the glossery terms, so time to do the reefer thing. I finally understand candlestick charts, moving averages and options though.:laugh::retawed:


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"life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake."

Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep)
Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use..
How I do grain (old still good tips)
Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber
Casing layer colonization and overlay


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: scatmanrav]
    #14960133 - 08/22/11 09:19 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

This market is unbelievably difficult.  A gap and crap open this morning lured in a lot of long players.  I took a few nibbles here and there (in AAPL, IBM, MDR, and CAT), all of which were stopped out for losses quite quickly.  I also closed out my bull put spread on WLT for a small profit, after the stock has shown some serious weakness relative to the major averages this morning.  This is the first time -- EVER -- that my trading account has been 100% cash.  Still hanging on to some 2013 calls on AAPL and BAC in my retirement account.  I'm sure I'll take some quick trades here and there, but until this volatility subsides, the action is just too nerve racking for me to hold a lot of exposure.  Interesting to note that another 19,000 September $98 put options on the SPY were purchased on the offer at 8:49 this morning.  Not quite as notable as Friday's 17 million dollar 108/98 bear put spread that was going off, perhaps this is a follow on trade, but still worth noting given how far out of the money and short term those puts are, and the fact that they were bought naked (no protection/hedge)... it's a very aggressive trade to the downside.

Me thinks I'll just sit most of this craziness out.  Just too much whipsaw for my good health! :crazy:


@ scatmanrav re: online brokers -- I really like the Think or Swim platform offered by TDAmeritrade.  It allows me to screen multiple charts in real time across several monitors, setting alerts and enacting trades relatively painlessly.  My current layout:

   


It's also been fairly stable during high market volatility, which is important if you're actively trading.  I was also able to call them several months ago asking for $7 commissions and they set both of my accounts at this rate with no hassle or additional questions.  If you're going to be trading a BUNCH and want the lowest commissions possible, TradeStation would probably be your best bet, however they charge a general monthly fee (haven't checked recently but I think it was around $70 - $100 / month), so if you're not trading often or have a very small account, the monthly fee may offset the benefit of the exceptionally low commissions.  InteractiveBrokers is another one to consider for low commissions and reliable trading platform.  I'm familiar with TDAmeritrade, which is why I continue to use it -- however if in the future I try another provider, I wager that it will be either TradeStation or InteractiveBrokers.

Trade carefully my friends!  Nasty, ugly, difficult, confusing, confounding market out there.  It will get easier in time, so don't feel the need to force your will upon the market during these exceptionally difficult times!


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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
    #14960139 - 08/22/11 09:23 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
Me thinks I'll just sit most of this craziness out.  Just too much whipsaw for my good health! :crazy:




And last I remember -- you're not at 100%, Mr. Recovery-from-jumping-fences :wink:


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: memes]
    #14960169 - 08/22/11 09:30 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

That's the truth!  To top it off, I was up at 3:50 this morning to pick up my mum from the airport... I should go take a nap! :crazy2:


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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
    #14960190 - 08/22/11 09:36 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Might as well -- you don't want to be wading in these waters anyways.  I was watching the news this morning while eating breakfast, and they had the 4wk %ch in the three bigguns.  All were down more than 14% or something redic.

I am no market player, but I know that those numbers are sadfaced (whether or not they should've been at the levels before the drop is another story, of course).




I keep hearing rumors of QE3.  Would the market even heed such an action?  It would make me very wary -- more of the same, ineffective, policiy actions --- of our overall economy (not to mention their commitment to extremely low rates until mid13).  I dunno.  I realize theres only so much the Fed can do.

What we need is a CLEAR PATH FORWARD so that businesses & citizens can know wtf to expect.  I'm not sure if thats what the market necessarily needs, but I know the overall economy sure does desire it.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: memes]
    #14960231 - 08/22/11 09:49 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Printing new lows on the day, glad I went to cash, this would have been exceptionally painful! :crazy:

I don't think we're going to see a QE3, at least not immediately.  The previous two iterations have not worked, so to follow the same path I do not believe would serve to calm the markets beyond allowing them to take a moment's breath, let alone accomplish any lasting stability.  Bernanke will be speaking Friday, here is what a major (and rather successful) desk trader had to say this morning on the SMM forum about that:
Quote:

My view, for no more than it's worth, is that Bernanke is a cautious, incremental type of soul who is unlikely to make a strong push for QE3 in his speech. I suspect that he'll restrict himself to noting that the Fed cares, that the Fed has several tools at its disposal, and that it will use them as seems appropriate. There were three dissenters at the last FOMC meeting, an extraordinary number, so there's even less reason than usual for Bernanke to paint himself, and his institution, into a corner.




We need to see strong leadership.  If we can find some cohesive agreement on direction -- ANY direction -- amongst our politicians, that would be a tremendous benefit to the markets.  Markets disdain uncertainty, and right now we are overwhelmed by it.  Unfortunately, if we do not find some direction soon, the idea of a deeper recession may become a self-fulfilling prophecy as confidence in the financial markets continue to erode, thereby limiting funding ability for corporations, causing corporations to further tighten their expenses, which means continued layoffs, lower production, tighter inventory, etc.  This cycles back to the producer nations abroad, who will also feel the pinch of an American consumer that is not buying their products, which in turn causes their local wealth to be minimized, thereby preventing them from buying the products that American corporations have built with their parts and labor.  Add in potential defaults all over Europe and we are in quite an interesting, if not potentially catastrophic time!

Let us hope for the best, and brace for the worst.


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Edited by geokills (08/22/11 09:58 AM)


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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
    #14960290 - 08/22/11 10:06 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Oye.


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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: memes]
    #14960340 - 08/22/11 10:19 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

To share one more comment that was just posted by my esteemed mentor Mr. Dan Fitzpatrick:
Quote:

I don't trust this market.  Frankly, it feels like 1987 to me.  Nobody's talking about it, but that seems to be the dynamic...and the High Frequency Trade crowd would make any breakdown just get really, really ugly.

With so much resistance overhead in so many stocks--and so much emptiness below--the risk of missing the upside is minimal compared to being crushed by the downside.

You will have plenty of time to get in the market when the time is right.  This is not that time.  I'd suggest focusing on having a lot of capital to use when the market does get more constructive.  It beats getting your portfolio smashed and then trying to make it back.  That's a lonely endeavor -- I've experienced it and nobody benefits from the exercise.



1987: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2007/200713/200713pap.pdf

Succinctly:
Quote:

October 19, 1987 - Black Monday

On Monday October 19, 1987, the stock market plummeted right from the opening bell.  No one was looking to buy stocks that day, and the problems in the stock market soon spread to the futures market.  The technology advances in the stock exchanges began to kick in, and these computerized systems accelerated the decline.

Program trading was a new tool, and was introduced to take advantage of rapid market movements.  On Black Monday, program trading moved millions of shares, and clients as well as investment houses were left wondering what their actual market positions were like for most of the day.

Portfolio insurance professionals also contributed to the stock market crash of 1987 through their electronic trading systems.  As these computerized systems analyzed the event of the days prior to Black Monday, they flooded the market with sell orders early on Monday.

Portfolio insurance and program trading were intended to help investors take advantage of short-term market fluctuations.  Unfortunately, these two systems, along with a lack of investor confidence, drove the Dow Jones down 508 points.  This was a 22% decline in value in just a single day.  Investors in the stock market would lose over $500 billion on Black Monday.

What Caused the Stock Market Crash of 1987?

Following the stock market crash, the federal government conducted a study of the events of Black Monday.  There was a great deal of concern, and interest, in determining the conditions contributing to the stock market's crashing.  After examining the findings of those reports, the SEC introduced several new measures of control into the stock market in an attempt to prevent a reoccurrence of the events of Black Monday:
?Computer Systems - the stock exchanges upgraded their computer systems so they could handle larger trading volumes in a more accurate and controlled manner.
?Margin Requirements - the SEC modified the margin requirements in an attempt to lower the volatility of common stocks, stock options, and the futures market.
?Circuit Breakers - the New York Stock Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange introduced the concept of a circuit breaker.  The circuit breaker halts trading if the Dow Jones Industrial Average declines a prescribed number of points in a prescribed amount of time.

As the market index rose over the years, the original circuit breaker levels no longer made sense for these stock exchanges.  The current rules for the stock market can be found on the NYSE's website.

Rebounding from the 1987 Stock Market Crash

On a final note, the market rebounded remarkably following the 1987 stock market crash.  The market began a slow and steady climb almost immediately following the crash.  In fact, before the end of 1989, the Dow Jones Industrials would once again be setting new record highs.

Most scholars attribute this rapid rebounding to the fact that the underlying fundamentals of the market were still strong, and the Federal Reserve took quick action in the months following the crash to bolster international confidence in the American economy.




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Edited by geokills (08/22/11 11:27 AM)


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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
    #14960348 - 08/22/11 10:22 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Do the HFtraders really exacerbate the swings to such a great extent?  Did they ever figure out what caused that mega-hyper-drop last year?  It was like -1000pts in 15min, or something to that effect...


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: memes]
    #14960377 - 08/22/11 10:31 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

High frequency trading is definitely responsible for exacerbating swings in the market.  There is a certain hotel in Manhattan, I cannot remember the name off hand, but it's where the underground fiber optic cables come on to the island to support internet connectivity.  As Wall Street is several miles to the south, big trading firms have been buying up real estate all around that hotel.  They use this real estate to set up vast computer networks that benefit from the 8 microsecond lead they have to the internet backbone versus the trading shops down on Wall Street.  Can you imagine it?  A hotel surrounded by ghost buildings full of machines trying to trade 8 microseconds faster than other machines, millions of times, just to capture those few fractional pennies per trade!

It's a systemic weakness to our financial system.  It's those types of trading systems that, when the markets make significant directional moves, take us far beyond what the move should have been.  These algorithmic trading systems do not understand what "too far too fast" really means.  All they see is momentum, and they attempt to capitalize on it by being fractions of a second faster than the next guy (or machine) that sees that momentum.  Frankly, it's really scary, and will probably be responsible for more "flash crashes" in the future.  Which ultimately, will play into that feedback loop I noted above, about confidence, corporate funding, production and the consumer.


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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
    #14960580 - 08/22/11 11:22 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Why keep 'em on the island at all?  Where do the fiber-optic cables stem from?  Why not just set up there?  You don't actually have to answer those questions -- just seems rediculous (although arbitrage is arbitrage)


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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: memes]
    #14962675 - 08/22/11 06:48 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Gold shoots up over $1900 in the after hours session.  This in conjunction with all of that put buying we've been seeing over the recent trading sessions is highly disconcerting.  Cramer has suggested that golds after hours sprint could be in anticipation of some major negative event about to transpire in the EU.  I don't know anything about that, but I can tell you I am incredibly relieved to have liquidated my trading portfolio earlier today!  Starting to wish I would've done the same for my retirement portfolio.  I will keep my eyes peeled for intraday opportunity, but I don't dare hold much of anything overnight in this market.

Since we started to discuss high frequency trading, I thought that this would be of some interest:

Quote:

    I think the high-frequency trading is a major negative for the stock market. It is a major negative
for the economy, and it does not do anything for the economy. It does not add any value to the economy.
It doesn't add any social value. Charles Munger, Warren Buffett's partner, in an interview on CNN in May,
essentially said the same thing.

    These high-frequency traders begin the day owning nothing and end the day owning nothing in terms of
common stocks. During the day, they are accounting between 50% and 60% of the volume.

    There was a terrific article in The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday. The headline was "A Wild Ride to
Profits." The article talked about what happened on Aug. 8, when the S&P 500 index was down 6.8%. That
day happened to be the single most profitable day in the history of high-frequency trading. These high
frequency traders made an estimated $65 million. While on that day, the stock market lost $850 billion of
value....

    The liquidity that they add to is useless liquidity. It has no lasting value. It consists of orders that are
placed and that are quickly retracted. It heavily, heavily consists of front-running.

    It is amazing to me the New York Stock Exchange puts up a facility right next door to their computers in
New Jersey and then they lease out space to 10 or 15 or 20 of the highest so-called co-locations so that
those individuals putting their computers there can get a microsecond of an advantage over their
competition. If the New York Stock Exchange thinks this is a smart idea, in order to generate volume, I
don't think so.

    But can I go back to something else? There was no high-frequency trading four years ago. What
permitted high-frequency trading, in my opinion, to occur was when the SEC removed the uptick rule -- on
July 7, I think, 2007.

    Right now, I ask a question, where are the regulatory bodies? We have had a major destruction in
confidence. You can help restore confidence to the markets tremendously, in my opinion. If the SEC would
consider reinstating the uptick rule, reinstating the uptick rule -- if you reinstate the uptick rule, you don't
have to do anything else. That will bring high-frequency trading to a screeching halt, but understand that
the New York Stock Exchange may not be in favor of it. The major investment banking firms won't be in
favor of it. The hedge funds, most of them, won't be in favor of it.

    -- Marvin Schwartz (Neuberger Berman) on CNBC's "Strategy Session" (Aug. 18, 2011)





Also of interest, posted by highly regarded fund manager Doug Kass:
Quote:

The hedge fund de-risking and mutual fund redemptions will probably slow the growing ambiguity of
worldwide economic growth, a negative feedback loop engendered by the political circus in Washington,
D.C., and signs of an increasingly fragile European banking industry have (in large part) contributed to the
recent selloff in the world's markets. I am convinced, however, that several noneconomic, temporary and
artificial influences have conspired to accelerate the recent drop of stock prices.

A General De-risking by Hedge Funds

The recent selling bout has occurred at a time when, according to the ISI Hedge Survey, hedge funds were
already reducing their net equity exposure. ISI's latest numbers (based on "the actual exposures at 35
funds capturing $86 billion in long/short assets") indicate that net hedge fund exposure has moved to
about 45.8% -- that's the lowest exposure in two years. Hedge funds have cut back based on growing
losses (and the trading associated with the discipline of limiting losses) as well as in response to the
marked rise in the VIX, which creates a higher VAR (dollar value at risk per day). The swiftness and
magnitude of the drop has begotten more and more selling by the hedge fund community.

Recent Hedge Fund Redemptions

I am personally aware of some large redemption requests in the hedge fund community. This has led to
further selling pressure. Many of those hedge funds had a large exposure in the financial sector, and this
could explain the outsized drop in bank stocks and other non-bank financials.

A Nearly Unprecedented Liquidation of Domestic Equity Funds

Last month, individual investors fled equity funds in a massive move toward the flight-to-safety trade. In
July, over $25 billion was redeemed. A week ago, over $20 billion was pulled. Surprisingly, assets were
taken out of every mutual fund asset class (equities, taxable and nontaxable bond funds) and went into
money market funds. I estimate that individual investors will pull out at least $35 billion in August,
representing the second-highest liquidation on record since the series of data began to be accumulated in
1979. It is almost a certainty that 2011 will represent the fifth consecutive year of liquidations --
something that has never happened in mutual fund history.




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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for August 23, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
    #14966042 - 08/23/11 02:02 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Well, I guess it turned out OK that I held onto some stuff after all (especially that AAPL $305 call).  The market has been consistently moving higher all day, although volume was rather lackluster.  I suspect that the reason we are not seeing large volume is due to market players being fatigued by all this gyration (I know I've been less active recently, after getting beat up trying to trade these swings over the past month).  However, the fact that we are closing at the highs of the day is encouraging.

I played a couple of day trades on SSO, IBM, MCP and HS... but have closed out all of those positions as this market has been so schizophrenic that I just don't trust it enough to hold overnight.  That may change if we see another constructive day tomorrow (hopefully without a major swing).  I would ideally like to see some weakness in the morning tomorrow, followed by consistent buying on increasing volume throughout the day, that type of setup would give me greater confidence in holding positions overnight.  A gap higher tomorrow would, on the other hand, be extremely frustrating.  Let us see what develops...

I'll have my eye on the following:
  • AAPL
  • IBM
  • GOOG
  • MCP
  • LULU
  • HS
  • SINA
  • AMZN
  • NFLX


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Re: Stock Update for August 23, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
    #14966551 - 08/23/11 03:40 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Looks like the bears were wrong. I foresee a rise over the next 3 to 4 weeks though there could be some speed bumps along the way. After that, a decline for a good while.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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Re: Stock Update for August 23, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: Stonehenge]
    #14967668 - 08/23/11 07:37 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

High frequency trading seems like what I was thinking of doing, watch a stock thats on the rise then buy it and sell it off when it goes a little bit higher, or move stops up as it rises to be stopped out of a profit.

I'm thinking the market will do another triple dip thing, maybe I'll be able to get in on the dips. But if the market is on the rise, some of the stocks that always rise (I'm looking at alot of the same you just liked geo) should go up throughout the day at points right? So buy at the start of a day when its rising and sell off later that day.

That was another question I had, how easy is it to move up stops on etrade sites, all of them the same? That would affect which one I pick since I like the whole stops thing and how they play into strategy.

I see the market alot like a poker table. Theres alot of gamble involved, but its calculated and if you make all the right moves, and you know when to leave, you can leave up most of the time.


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"life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake."

Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep)
Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use..
How I do grain (old still good tips)
Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber
Casing layer colonization and overlay


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Re: Stock Update for August 23, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: scatmanrav]
    #14967933 - 08/23/11 08:28 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

scat -- just make sure your profits aren't eaten up in transaction costs.


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Re: Stock Update for August 23, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: memes]
    #14968705 - 08/23/11 11:17 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Well thats to be factored in but wouldnt buying and selling stock only cost 14 dollars (Going by 7 dollars per trade at ScotTrade)? I could see it getting away easily though if you buy and sell in increments which I've seen recommended but thats why I'm trying to find somewhere that will allow me to trade cheaply. I dont think I'll be doing 500 trades a month or anything like that in the immediate future, but 7 bucks a trade seems reasonable. I'll probably start off with a few long buys of some companies that pay good dividends. Trying to research the highest paying dividends right now.


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"life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake."

Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep)
Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use..
How I do grain (old still good tips)
Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber
Casing layer colonization and overlay


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for August 23, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: scatmanrav]
    #14968771 - 08/23/11 11:33 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

> High frequency trading seems like what I was thinking of doing

High frequency trading is very different from what you're talking about.  HFT involves lots of computers, making hundreds of thousands of transactions in a single trading day, for fractional gains.  It is supposed that high frequency trading computers account for over half of the volume (half of the transactions) that take place on any given day in the market.  Their whole selling point is that HFT machines provide liquidity to the market, allowing transactions to happen with greater ease and fluidity.  However in practice, all they really do is amplify the prevailing momentum to an irrational degree.

On dividends, there are the usual suspects that I've spoken about in here for quite some time (NLY being tops, AGNC and PSEC).  You yield hogs might want to take a look at TCAP, which announced a new offering of 3.5 million shares plus an over allotment of 525,000 shares earlier today.  It will probably be priced at a 5% discount to today's close. The stock is trading down a bit over 5% in the A.H. market, making the go forward yield in the after hours session come in at around 10.3% versus the 9.67% that was yielded at the closing price.  Watch it tomorrow and consider an entry if that's the name of your game.  Buying a high yielding stock when it announces a secondary offering is typically the winning strategy for these types of stocks.

I'm quite frankly focusing on day trading in this environment.  Just too much uncertainty for me to have much long term conviction.  Futures have been trading down a bit so far tonight (though honestly the futures have been very unpredictable lately), but if we get a lower open tomorrow, I'll be looking for signs of strength to take on a good heaping of (temporary) exposure, as it looks like 1120 on the S&P is a short term bottom.  AAPL has been exceptionally strong, and there's an adage that says "where AAPL goes, so goes the market".  It's my biggest position, and I won't be afraid to take on an even bigger position size for a day trade tomorrow if the prevailing support holds at the 50 day moving average.  With their incredible cash position, no debt, tremendous growth, low PE multiple and news of the iPhone 5 trickling out (Sprint will be added to the list of domestic carriers come October), AAPL is undervalued.  Of course, if the market crashes, AAPL will not be spared, but if we can stabilize, AAPL is where you'll want to be!


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Re: Stock Update for August 23, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
    #14970058 - 08/24/11 09:18 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

I was able to eek out some modest gains flipping GOOG and LULU this morning, stopped out in the early goings and now my trading account is back to 100% cash.  Gold is getting crushed for the second day in a row, and I would be a buyer at the $1500 - $1600 level.  I wouldn't do much of anything other than day trade until we hear what Bernanke has to say on Friday.  I suppose that he won't say much of anything meaningful, and that by effectively doing nothing, he will probably end up disappointing the market.  Hence my apprehension in getting heavily invested ahead of the speech.

I am looking to sell some out of the money September $390 (front month) call options against my longer term January 2013 AAPL $305 LEAP.  This is what is known as a calendar spread, and will ultimately help lower my cost basis in the $305 LEAP, as I take in premium each month by selling an out of the money call that should expire worthless.  If however, the front month call that I sell expires in the money and I have 100 shares of AAPL called away from me, I can exercise my 2013 LEAP to cover those shares.  It's a win win situation, since if the stock is not called away from me, I get to keep the full premium from the short September $390 call.  If the stock is called away, I still ended up making money from the appreciation in value on my $305 LEAP (and still getting to keep the premium for the front month contract that I sold).  Of course, if AAPL really tanks, I will be taking losses since the premium from the September short call would not offset a meaningful decline in my $305 LEAP, simply by virtue of the LEAP being a significantly larger position.  Nevertheless, calendar spreads are a relatively conservative strategy that I am comfortable with on a stock like AAPL, in a market like this!


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