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pothead_bob
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: Bambi]
#14931698 - 08/16/11 01:09 PM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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If you're looking at getting involved with any short-term trading that is heavily dependent on using charts and looking for technical indicators, I'd first read up a little on the basics, then set up a play account with any number of stock market game websites, start fake trading, and see where you're at in a month. Much better to learn with monopoly money than your nest egg. I learned a few hard lessons with the latter.
-------------------- No knowledge can be certain, if it is not based upon mathematics or upon some other knowledge which is itself based upon the mathematical sciences. -Leonardo da Vinci (1425-1519) Speak well of your enemies. After all, you made them.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: pothead_bob]
#14932091 - 08/16/11 02:28 PM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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Sage advice.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Bambi
Friendly Forrest Animal




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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
#14940095 - 08/17/11 11:10 PM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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Thanks for the advice guys. so i was researching one of my stocks a bit further today and i came across two rather odd things that ive never seen before. On LPHI their has only been one earning report this year, it is listed as the Q3 report that was released on 1-10-2011 and their Q4 report for the year is expected on 11-28-2011. Dont companies have to report 4 times a year? Also on LPHI the september 7.50 puts are 3 times the cost of the calls and the stock closed at 7.70. Any ideas why either of these things are so strange.
Also, i think that AFOP is a good stock to keep an eye on. I think that it could either shoot up and shoot down sometime in the next 2 or so months.
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: Bambi]
#14940325 - 08/18/11 12:05 AM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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Anyone ever heard of Molycorp? (NYSE: MCE). A friend works there and won't shut up about them. When i take a peek it seems a joke. Don't waste any time researching on my behalf - just wondering if anyones ever heard of them at all.
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Cowgold
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: memes]
#14940439 - 08/18/11 12:43 AM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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I have. They went IPO last year, around July (I Think) for $14/share. They are supposed to start mining Rare Earth Metals in 2012 with a processing facility. Right now China is producing 96% of the rare earth metals and essentially control the market. Rare Earths are used in everything from cell phones to hybrid cars to wind turbines... Basically anything with an LCD screen or electric motor. Every green technology basically is dependent on them. This stock is a day trader's dream, extremely volatile. Production should really be subsidized to secure a domestic reserve, but currently there are none. The DOD did a study earlier this year to see if Our limited reserves posed a threat to national security, but it came back negative. Otherwise, we may have ended up with a subsidy (sp?).I haven't looked into how much MCP's mine has in reserves or what mix they have of each metal, but equally important questions are... How much to value each refined ton at and how much are their production costs per ton? They haven't turned a profit yet, but will they be able to when they become fully operational?
There are so many unknowns and lots of hype on this... It could go any direction. One thing is certain, though. Every time China says anything about the metals, this thing goes crazy.
High Risk/High Reward
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ZippoZ
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: Cowgold]
#14940872 - 08/18/11 04:41 AM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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moly corp, general moly, moly this, moly that.... i see them all over in the mining news, and saw moly people very heavily advertising themselves at the last convention i went to.
molybdenum is this stuff they add to steel to make it harder... and like any mining company that works in the field of mining raw material for steel production, they are making serious bank with Chinese backed investments.... and china is making more steel than ever. Probably a pretty safe bet
-------------------- PEACE
zippoz "in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption" "People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it."
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: memes]
#14941416 - 08/18/11 08:50 AM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
Bambi said:
On LPHI their has only been one earning report this year, it is listed as the Q3 report that was released on 1-10-2011 and their Q4 report for the year is expected on 11-28-2011. Dont companies have to report 4 times a year? Also on LPHI the september 7.50 puts are 3 times the cost of the calls and the stock closed at 7.70. Any ideas why either of these things are so strange.
The NASDAQ lists LPHI as delinquent for missing regulatory filing deadlines. I wouldn't touch that stock with someone else's money! The options dislocation is on account of the increased downside risk in conjunction with the fact that those options are very thinly traded. In other words, there isn't much money interested in trading those options, and therefore the spread between the bids and the offers are wide enough to drive a truck through. In general, you should make a habit of avoiding any options trade that involves spreads in excess of 3%... because as soon as your order is filled, you'll be losing money - the trade will work against you from the beginning. If you must trade such a thin issue, just buy the underlying stock and forget about the options, save options for issues with high liquidity or you could find yourself losing a lot of money very quickly.
Quote:
meams said: Anyone ever heard of Molycorp? (NYSE: MCP). A friend works there and won't shut up about them. When i take a peek it seems a joke. Don't waste any time researching on my behalf - just wondering if anyones ever heard of them at all.
Molycorp is the most fundamentally sound of all the publicly traded rare earth mining companies. I have even profiled that company in this thread about a month or two ago, but given what the market is doing right now, I am hesitant to get materially involved in such a speculative play, right here right now. I will revisit the stock as the market begins to stabilize. But while the market is falling apart, you should either be standing aside, playing short-term (intraday) swings from the long and short side (only if you're nimble), and/or focusing on highly profitable growth companies that are being dragged through the mud with the rest of the market and may be picked up at a healthy discount to their growth rate.
The market is very ugly again today due to concerns over the EU banking system in conjunction with an absolutely horrendous Philly Fed report showing major contraction in business activity versus the anticipation of stability to very tepid increase. The only meaningful position I was carrying into the open is that bull put spread on WLT (with the September $70 / $65 puts) that I mentioned a week or two ago, and though my profits on that position have been cut in half this morning, I will give the position more time to work. Unless WLT falls below $74, I'm quite comfortable holding this position until September expiration.
I was almost entirely in cash this morning (thank goodness), and am not inclined to do much aside from day trading in this market (holding positions overnight has seemed like Russian Roulette these past few weeks). However, I did opt to take a high flier with a single AAPL Jan 2013 $305 LEAP, which was filled at $100 this morning. This gives me 520 days for AAPL to be above $405 to break even on the trade. Apple has been growing it's revenue and profit at around 80% and 100% respectively year over year, and while this won't be infinitely sustainable, it's almost laughable that the stock is trading with a price to earnings ratio of 15! That's an incredible discount to its growth rate, and with the iPhone 5 soon to be released, along with a new version of the iPad forthcoming, as well as a possible venture into the television media venue, I can't imagine that AAPL won't be well above $405 by January 2013. Heck, $405 is only 10% above where the stock is trading today; Look at the trend in AAPL on a weekly chart and think about where that stock could find itself 16 months from now. As always, remember to manage your risk and don't fly blind when clouds may be forming on the horizon!
As an associated strategy for holding the LEAP on AAPL, I will be selling current month out of the money calls against my LEAP (calls that I expect to expire worthless), so that I can collect the call premium to effectively reduce my cost on the LEAP. You wouldn't want to sell the calls on a day like today though, you'll want to sell calls into strength/resistance so that you can capture the most premium with lower risk.
That's all the buying that I'll be doing today, but if the market continues to fall apart, I will begin to look at LEAPs (those January 2013 deep in the money call options) on other high growth leaders such as AMZN, CMG and IBM. Make your shopping list, set your price levels for any long term positions and scale in with discipline.
Good luck out there! Don't be too aggressive in this market. The swings are tremendous and you should only be taking low risk entries with well defined support, and make sure not to overstay your welcome.
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
#14941422 - 08/18/11 08:52 AM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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Thanks for all the info people. I'll be receiving a real income as of next month, so within the year I plan to start building my portfolio.
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pothead_bob
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: memes]
#14941875 - 08/18/11 11:07 AM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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What a great time to start building a portfolio. Starting your investment career in a major market pullback can lead to untold riches in retirement with the right approach.
-------------------- No knowledge can be certain, if it is not based upon mathematics or upon some other knowledge which is itself based upon the mathematical sciences. -Leonardo da Vinci (1425-1519) Speak well of your enemies. After all, you made them.
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memes
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: pothead_bob]
#14941882 - 08/18/11 11:10 AM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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Yep. Will be nice. I graduated undergrad in 2008 and would've loved to get a job & start investing then. The dow was in the 7XXXs theN? Or was it 8XXXs? I forget - either way. This starting point should be OK regardless.
Its not like I'll have huge sums to invest. Just an extra $1000 or so every couple of months.
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pothead_bob
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: memes]
#14941931 - 08/18/11 11:24 AM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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I don't think it hit those levels until almost a year after that (assuming you graduated spring). Still, yeah, it would have been nice to start throwing money in on the decline, as long as you would have had the balls to consistently be putting money in when you keep losing it every month.
$500 a month is still a good chunk of change to dump in there.
The mistake I made, is I dumped my childhood savings, from bonds, in that summer prior to the crash. Then when I saw myself loosing all the money, I stopped and just held as it went down. I didn't put jack shit in when the market was going down and bottomed out. Not until several months later did I open up a Vanguard account and start adding more funds slowly.
If only I would have waited 6 months to dump all that money in, I'd have seen such better gains, but oh well.
-------------------- No knowledge can be certain, if it is not based upon mathematics or upon some other knowledge which is itself based upon the mathematical sciences. -Leonardo da Vinci (1425-1519) Speak well of your enemies. After all, you made them.
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: pothead_bob]
#14942119 - 08/18/11 12:07 PM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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I graduated Dec '08 ---- so yes, nearly a year after that
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
#14947188 - 08/19/11 12:06 PM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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Just a quick note that I would NOT step in front of the market this weekend. From someone in the industry:
Quote:
Morgan Stanley shorted the big S&P 1K contracts all the way down to 1136. That is a 113.6 million dollar short position at the very least, they took multiple price levels on the way down so in all likelihood it is actually a bigger trade.
Next, massive put spreads have been put on via the CBOE for the September 98/108 - 50K contracts, then 6 minutes later another tranche went off for 50K contracts. The first tranche was when SPY was at 114.20. The total contracts could hedge $1.4Billion value long position (obviously this is a big house deal). Can't say that it was the same customer (but it appears likely), and the $17M in premium paid would make a max payout of $83M if the SPY were to settle at or below the 98 strike, in 29 days, which is 14.3% down from here.
This indicates that the big money (which also tends to be the smart money, by virtue of the fact that it is the big money that moves markets) is preparing for further near-term downside.
TREAD LIGHTLY!
Positions:
LEAPS (2013 call options) on AAPL and BAC Bull Put Spread (short Sep $70 / long Sep $65) on WLT Puts (Sep $100) on SPY
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
#14947240 - 08/19/11 12:14 PM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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Scary days.
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Stonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: memes]
#14948676 - 08/19/11 05:47 PM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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If i had followed my own advice and stayed the course i'd have made money on those puts. I had an order in on 1000 ge for $15 and today it dropped to 15.09. I put in another order for monday but at 14.75. I have the weekend to think about it and may lower my target. I still see some upside for the next 3 or 4 weeks but it may drop first.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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ben_dover0802
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: Stonehenge]
#14949098 - 08/19/11 07:26 PM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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I was shaken out of my short ETF too early as well. Haven't really traded since, I am now waiting so I can go plain old long on uptrending stocks such as AAPL, ZAGG, CMG, MCD, LULU, VHC, etc.. point is, only winners!
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: ben_dover0802]
#14950021 - 08/19/11 10:36 PM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
waiting so I can go plain old long on uptrending stocks such as AAPL, ZAGG, CMG, MCD, LULU, VHC, etc.. point is, only winners!
Just want to point out that VHC is highly speculative. The company holds patents (intellectual property), and received a favorable court ruling earlier in the year against one of the majors (Microsoft, I think, but I could be wrong) that had their stock take off. It may get bought out by one of the majors in the future, which could result in a pop, but overall, I would NOT look at VHC as a stable long term investment. It should be used as a trading vehicle only, in my opinion. The other stocks you mentioned have much more stable growth patterns, although I will note that ZAGG is somewhat speculative as well -- since they garner the majority of their profits through accessories to Apple products (think iPad cases), which has a relatively low barrier to entry for any companies who wish to enter that arena and compete. Nevertheless, ZAGG has an edge on the competition thus far, and their stock is very strong.
My few cents on the fundamental take... I do hope you thrive!
Special note for next week: If we see the S&P bounce inside the bollinger bands, that will be a higher relative low (i.e. relative to the bollinger bands), even if we go lower than the recent absolute low of 1101. In other words, we could see the S&P fall as low as 1080 (plus or minus a few points) on Monday, and if we bounce at that level, we will still be inside the bollinger bands and that will be fairly reliable technical signal for a snap back rally. Just wanted you to be aware that a lot of hedge fund managers and the like will focus on a higher relative low during these potential "W" shaped bottoms, rather than an higher absolute low, since the prior low of 1101 fell way outside the lower band. Subtle nuance, but incredibly important for technical traders!
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ben_dover0802
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
#14952261 - 08/20/11 12:11 PM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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Thanks for that little tid-bit of information Geo, appreciate it.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: ben_dover0802]
#14956575 - 08/21/11 12:38 PM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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Dan Firtzpatrick of Stock Market Mentor offered up a great free video this weekend for non-subscribers, that really hammers home the idea of always keeping the bigger picture in mind. To anyone who manages their own money in the market, I'd recommend watching it:
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scatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
#14957919 - 08/21/11 06:42 PM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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Ive been following this thread for months now, trying to learn what I can, especially more recently, so thanks to all who make it what it is, especially geokills. That was a very helpful video for me.
If someone were to want to start investing now, or when I see the bounce come soon, and they only wanted to put a couple thousand into the account to play with, what would be a good online broker to sign into. I want to attempt some day trading as the market bounces back up, and then in the next coming weeks Id like to invest in some nice buy and hold stocks with nice payment.
I did set up a play account at wallstreetsurvivor.com but its difficult to learn how to use the website, and I'm finding glitches. I bought some stock while offline that was supposed to go through when the market opened, but I click portfolio and nothing happens, it says I havnt made a trade yet, even though the almost 7000 in fake trades I did shows the money is gone. Dont really get it.
So I'm looking for a good online broker that wont charge to much in fees for day trades and you dont need to put alot of money in.
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