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Hotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: Hotnuts]
#14896480 - 08/09/11 01:57 PM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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Piercing pattern on roids, has occured!
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Stonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: Hotnuts]
#14896512 - 08/09/11 02:04 PM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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I predicted the dead cat might make his move today. I hope people are out of long positions or do so before the bounce turns into another drop. I do see another drop and a big one. Grab the benefits but don't stick around, candle sticks or not it's going to be bad, very bad within a week. Thats when i make my move.
Gold keeps inching upward. I'm not selling any time soon. In the not too distant future 1700 will look like a bargain.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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pothead_bob
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: Stonehenge]
#14896783 - 08/09/11 03:02 PM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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Interesting times that we live in, indeed. This could be a golden opportunity for all of us young investors to retire young and wealthy. I expect to see my salary greatly increase in 2012... I wonder if there will still be great deals to be had when I gain all that extra investable income.
-------------------- No knowledge can be certain, if it is not based upon mathematics or upon some other knowledge which is itself based upon the mathematical sciences. -Leonardo da Vinci (1425-1519) Speak well of your enemies. After all, you made them.
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ben_dover0802
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: Stonehenge]
#14897417 - 08/09/11 05:32 PM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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I (somewhat) disagree Stonehedge, the market is finally bouncing after the worst weeks in years, I actually bought a lot of stuff in the final 30 minutes the market was open. I have tight stops, but if you were waiting for the oversold bounce, now is a good time.
I am not saying we will get new highs, or even close to that, but there is still plenty of room for upside as most people who wanted to sell over the past couple weeks, did, and now there should be more buyers than sellers for a little bit. That huge upswing at the end of the day was due to some serious money buying equities, not us thousandaires(that's me at least).
Either way, I am very happy that I made blew away my record for most gains in a day, went up 8% in aggregate, mostly thanks to ZAGG's terrific day, which ended up nearly 17% higher than yesterdays close! There is still plenty of room for this stock to run before it hits resistance (another ~20%) so if the market is strong tomorrow, it may be a good buy if only to hold for that day or maybe until thursday.
Anyway, that's my take on it, I am definitely not sure we will see more upside, but I suppose I am expecting it since I bought today, if only for a few days. I have to agree the next week is not promising at all and I will most likely be heavy in cash by Fridays close even if this rally continues.
Only time will tell!
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Stonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: ben_dover0802]
#14897637 - 08/09/11 06:22 PM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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That's nice you made some money, ben. The reason i'm bearish on the near term is because the fundamentals are all wrong right now. I don't mean for the individual companies or even for the nyse or any exchange. The world economy is sputtering like mad. Both sides of the atlantic are having hard times and asia, with the exception of china is not doing so great either. I believe china is seeing a lot less growth since their customers are doing poorly.
You could have the best run company with a great business plan and top notch products and it could still fail or at least stall if their customers aren't doing well. How can usa companies as a whole grow or even maintain profits when the people here are not doing so well and do not have an optimistic outlook for the future? People are not buying, for one thing. Consumer spending is a major part of the us economy and people are tightening their belts rather than spend. How are companies supposed to do well in a climate like that? Europe is a mess, possibly worse off than we are.
Today was an announcement by the fed which was seen by your millionaire investors as a good sign. Hence, the late rally. How long is that going to last? Investors large and small see little to celebrate and i think the bear sentiment will grow. I could be wrong but lets see what the coming week does. I could have jumped in yesterday or this morning and perhaps snapped up a few percent gain. But i think it will be safer when the recent rally snaps and despair starts to take over. Emotion not reason will rule at that time. Your investors which i spoke of yesterday and sunday, have rushed in and produced a rally. What happens when they find their fingers burned? Will they stay in or if they picked up a quick profit perhaps they will beat a tactical retreat? They didn't make their money by going against the tide.
I'm seeing the market go sideways the next few days but that big undertow is lurking just below the surface and i'm thinking the time to plunge will be later in the week or maybe monday, tuesday, something like that. Luck or skill, i've been right on this latest development and a couple weeks ago started giving the reasons for the bear market in the 'tuesday..' thread. That doesn't mean i'll hit 10 out of 10, no one does but i was one of the few saying jump in at the trough of the last meltdown.
After the next big dip, i'm looking for a gradual recovery but i don't see it lasting. I'm thinking a month to two months after the next low point will be when the lambs come back in thinking its safe. Then of course the axe comes down and another dip, not quite so severe as what we are seeing this week and next. But a big enough dip that you want to get out with your profits even if you haven't maximized them yet. Wait for the next mini crash and get back in. The next low or series of lows will not be as bad as what we are seeing here and we haven't seen this one out yet. If i'm correct.
You can't say i didn't stick my neck out. I plan to put some cash in it too, a serious amount but not until the next low which will be lower than monday. I'll post my purchases if i make any. If by any chance i misread it and monday was the low for this time around, i'll just wait for the second wave of dips. When i get in it will be money making time.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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ben_dover0802
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: Stonehenge]
#14898233 - 08/09/11 08:22 PM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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I agree with that, this market is very shaky, and we could potentially catch a reallllly bad week if shit hits the fan. If that is the case, your right, no stock except inverses will be green, and that's when true bargains are available.
I think we are just on different time frames, when I say I expect upside, I do for only a couple days, maybe until the end of the week. Then (if I am right) ill be selling and hopefully waiting in cash with you for a real bottom.
I don't have a set timeframe for work so I can literally watch my computer almost the entire trading period in volatile times like these - probably why I am attempting to profit from bounces in such a choppy market.
Anyway, please do post your purchases and good luck!
BTW as of this evening, I am long AAPL (50%), ZAGG(15%) AGNC (5%, too low I am starting to think), and SINA(15%), 15% cash, so I am in pretty heavily invested.
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Stonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: ben_dover0802]
#14900583 - 08/10/11 11:03 AM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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I read this morning that aapl is up so you did well there ben if you got out before todays drop. I believe geo was long on aapl too. The bounce tuesday did not last and the next big drop i predicted is happening today. I consider my sunday forecast to be vindicated. But there is more, i'm still not getting in yet. I would not be surprised at some upward movement before the weekend as bargain hunters are lured in. I will be doing some shorting perhaps friday and look to cover monday or tuesday which is when i think the serious drops will be seen. That's when the optimistic people start throwing in the towel and you can get fire sale prices left and right. Even if i miss that part of the prediction i'd say it is already eerily on target. What say you?
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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ben_dover0802
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: Stonehenge]
#14901615 - 08/10/11 02:08 PM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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I say you were right so far! This market is playing hard ball.
My individual stocks are beating the market, but still pretty deep in the red. After today, we will be right back at support of the last two days so I am holding until I see what happens tomorrow.
Luckily I made about twice as much yesterday than lost today, but still this is very frustrating. Not neccessarily that I am wrong, but how the market right now makes you pay dearly for being wrong right now - huge upward/downward swings.
I am hoping for the bargain hunters to jump in, I will gladly sell them my stocks because I do not want to be holding them into the weekend.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: ben_dover0802]
#14902477 - 08/10/11 05:16 PM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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This is a very difficult market. With 4+% swings daily, you have to play lightly or not at all. Frankly, it's really nice not to be too involved right now, I'm consistently seeing people tearing their hair out in frustration on the very active private trading forum over at StockMarketMentor.com, trying to catch every little zig and zag and generally losing money. Thus, I haven't been doing much of anything, though I did take some small nibbles of MDR and CLF today. I'll give MDR no room below $12.84, and CLF no room below $67.
Stalking January 2013 $305 calls for AAPL. It is the one company which I have the most conviction in, and I believe was already greatly undervalued a month ago, let alone now after being dragged down with everything else. Since volatility is high, it benefits me to choose a deep in the money strike price ($305 versus where the stock is trading now at $363), in order to avoid paying a high option premium for the time value - of course, because it is so deep in the money, the individual contract itself carries a high dollar cost, which is fine with me, since a higher proportion of that dollar cost is intrinsic value versus time value. I closed my bull put spread on AAPL yesterday, since my chosen strikes were a little high $375/$365, given where the stock is currently trading. Still holding my September $70/$65 bull put spread on WLT though.
I can't stress this enough: this is a really tough market. For the most part, I'm inclined to take mostly quick day trades, because holding things overnight in this environment is like playing Russian Roulette. It's hard to believe how many people are continuing to buy US treasuries, even after the Fed explicitly stated that rates will be held near zero for another two years! There is some real panic and indecision out there amongst big money, and in order to see some semblance of a lasting rally in equities, we need to see less buying interest in both treasuries and gold (the latter of which, set a new high today).
Good luck!
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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DieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
#14903024 - 08/10/11 07:10 PM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: As an added note, I'm also out of my REITS (NLY and AGNC). There's serious issues pertaining to the federal mortgage companies (Freddie and Fannie) and debt related issues that in turn raise concerns for NLY and AGNC. This could very well prove to be a buying opportunity for the longer term, but I wouldn't be surprised to see better prices in the coming months and I'm quite honestly tired of trying to step in front of this train.
What are your thoughts on this now with the interest rate announcement. Less chance of better prices in the coming months?
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pothead_bob
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
#14905137 - 08/11/11 07:20 AM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: It's hard to believe how many people are continuing to buy US treasuries, even after the Fed explicitly stated that rates will be held near zero for another two years!
I'm beginning to think that, due to the magnitude of recent events, I may rebalance my portfolio at the end of this month. I had a target of 10% in US short term treasuries and 10% in medium term high yield corporate bonds. With the Fed's announcement and everybody running to treasuries, I think I may sell and drop my holdings to 7% in US treasuries in order to free up capital for buying up equities. I should probably consider unloading some gold, too, as that's probably nearing 15% of my portfolio now, and I only wanted to be in 10% initially.
-------------------- No knowledge can be certain, if it is not based upon mathematics or upon some other knowledge which is itself based upon the mathematical sciences. -Leonardo da Vinci (1425-1519) Speak well of your enemies. After all, you made them.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: DieCommie]
#14905804 - 08/11/11 10:51 AM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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Quote:
What are your thoughts on [mortgage REITS] now with the interest rate announcement. Less chance of better prices in the coming months?
NLY and AGNC look safe. High yield stocks in general caught a bid off the Fed announcement. Looks like that shakeout was in fact a buying opportunity. While the market is looking a little healthier today (we are hammering out some well defined short term support at 1100 on the S&P), all these whipsaws are exhausting, and I don't feel like taking on much exposure ahead of the weekend so I continue to do little. We are seeing increased margin requirements on gold bringing the price of the yellow metal in a bit. It the GLD can get down to $155, that would be a gift. I would not be surprised to see the S&P test its 2010 lows at around 1000 - 1040 before the year is out... but I suppose we'll just have to wait and see.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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ben_dover0802
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Registered: 09/21/08
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
#14906675 - 08/11/11 02:15 PM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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Interesting day today. I made the majority of my money from yesterday back, and this time I took some profits from this week off the table. I am only about 45% invested going into tomorrow rather than 85%.
I plan to sell even more tomorrow, if tomorrow is green or red will only change if I sell early or late in the day. This week was definitely a good one for me, still trying to make up the deficient from the past few months of choppiness, but I am making some ground.
As of right now I am long 17% AAPL, 10% ZAGG, 5% AGNC, and 13% NLY, the last 2 being high yield stocks. So 55% cash now, probably just going to sell all AAPL and ZAGG so I will be 80% cash going into the weekend.
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Stonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: ben_dover0802]
#14907027 - 08/11/11 03:22 PM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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Glad to hear it, ben. I thought those bargain hunters, or whoever they were, would give us a good day today. I think tomorrow will not be too bad either. I plan to buy some puts and or go short on some stocks tomorrow. Monday and tuesday is when i am thinking another drop. But this might be the time i'm wrong so protect yourself at all times.
Those who lost money in the recent upheavals have my sympathy. It's no fun getting beat by an irrational surge after you've spent so much time learning the game and making small careful profits. I wish you all the best of luck. And i hope i'm right so that we can all profit from it. Just don't stay long over the weekend.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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Stonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: Stonehenge]
#14910564 - 08/12/11 10:06 AM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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OK, i made my move. I bought 20 puts on ge with strike price of 16 and it's at about 16 now. It cost me 43 cents a share. I then put in a limit order to sell them at 1.33 which would be a profit of 90 cents a share. The puts expire in one week. I'm thinking tuesday will be the day it hits that low.
For those new to this, a put is betting that a stock will go lower. It's a type of option contract. The easy way to remember is call up and put down. You want your calls to go up and your puts to go down. I just hope my streak doesn't break right now that i put some money up.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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ben_dover0802
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: Stonehenge]
#14911554 - 08/12/11 02:15 PM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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Hopefully not! I went ahead with my plan, excited my remaining long positions in both AAPL and ZAGG.
I decided to also bet with the bears, I took a ~50% in SKF, which is a short financial etf, I bought this kinda late, at a cost average of $76.84, but it closed at $78.30 so its all good. I closed half of that at the end of the day so I am going into the weekend with:
23% SKF, 13% NLY, 5% AGNC, and 60% cash.
Best of luck to ya!
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Stonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: ben_dover0802]
#14912285 - 08/12/11 05:01 PM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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Sounds like you did ok today, ben. My prediction tuesday that the rest of the week would be sideways was technically correct but it was a violent 3 days that ended about the same.
If i had waited a little i would have gotten a better price. Everyone says that. I was in losing territory, got just slightly winners and ended a penny to the bad.
I have my standing order to sell if the puts go to 1.33 but if it hasn't hit by tuesday morning i'll just close it and take what i can get. After the put order, i made a limit order on ge for 1000s @ 15. My reasoning is that if it drops like i hope, then i'll not only get the puts but pick up some ge. I believe after next week, possibly after tuesday, it will pick up. Look for a steady rise for about a month. I will sell then and have a trailing stop before then. I'm not sure what i'll do after that, my forecast is for gradual drops with of course a few violent ones but perhaps not as violent as this week. Then i'm seeing a sideways market or gradual decline for a good while due to the reasons i've already given. Poor usa economy, poor world economy, debt crisis, unemployment... etc. No need to go through the whole list. If it pans out next week, i may update my forecast for the rest of the year, if anyone cares.
What i see happening the last couple weeks is the market is trying to correct but people insist the levels are supposed to be higher. Those people do not have unlimited money so i'm seeing a last gasp of optimism the next month, after tuesday and rest of next week, and then the dismal reality sets in. We can make money in a bear market same as a bull. I plan to make money next week, don't all of you? GL and go short if you haven't already. Hopefully my streak will continue.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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Bambi
Friendly Forrest Animal




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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: Stonehenge]
#14930661 - 08/16/11 09:09 AM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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So since i am still very new to this, i was wondering if you all bought stock based on fundamentals or based on charting
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"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben
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Stonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: Bambi]
#14930784 - 08/16/11 09:38 AM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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Bambi, i think it depends on the investor but many use both. I think hn is a chartist.
The market dropped this morning as i predicted but not as much as it rose on monday so i lost money when i sold the puts. If i had waited until monday to buy them i'd be fine. Oh well.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: Bambi]
#14930853 - 08/16/11 09:54 AM (12 years, 5 months ago) |
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There are a lot of variables that go into answering your question. It's always a good idea to have some idea of the fundamental backdrop for the economy, the market, as well as the individual companies (and the relevant sectors) that you are interested in. But how much emphasis you put on the fundamentals versus the price action (aka charts) will depend on your time frame and individual trading style.
For longer term investors, it is very important to understand the fundamental factors that affect a company's profitability and future prospects. These factors will vary from sector to sector, for example subscriber growth is relevant for cellular or cable companies, proven reserves and the spot price for oil in conjunction with economic productivity is relevant for oil companies, sales growth and product releases are relevant for tech companies, interest rates are relevant for financial companies, clinical test results are relevant for biotech companies, etc. Debt is almost always relevant, and in the current market environment, you'll want to be more cautious than usual when investing in companies with a high debt load since financing may become increasingly difficult to come by. You also want to make sure that your longer term investments are with companies that are producing a profit, rather than speculative companies that are relying on debt to fund research for "the next big thing". For long term investing, the fundamentals tell you whether or not you WANT to buy, and the charts come into play as a method for choosing the ideal points WHERE you will enter (buy) and exit (sell) your positions.
On the other hand, if you are primarily a day trader or only hold positions for a short period of time, company fundamentals become less important, and the charts become even more important, since you will be trading the price action instead of the company's future prospects (given that you're not planning to hold the stock well into the future). Of course, understanding fundamentals can still help you find better short-term trades, and this is especially true in the macro sense. You may not need to know all the fundamentals of the individual companies you are day trading, but you will want to know the general market and sector fundamentals so that you'll have the correct bias (positive or negative) to plan your trades around.
In other words, it's always a good idea to have a handle on both the fundies and the charts, you will be able to use both to varying degree dependent upon your style and specific investment objective. And it's not a bad idea to have a portion of your portfolio dedicated towards longer term ideas, and another portion dedicated towards short-term trading (if that's your thing). For me, the short-term stuff keeps me involved (which keeps me up to date) and also makes things exciting. I was lucky to scalp a quick 5% gain with a pretty sizable position that I put on at the open this morning in VHC with two purchase lots (one order as soon as I saw the stock had gapped down and had immediately started to rise, the second after the first 5 minutes were out of the way and I could see that the uptrend was persisting). This was purely a technical chart trade, and the position was closed out with two sell stops that I was constantly adjusting within the first 45 minutes of trading. While I love a good momentum trade, my largest gains of yet, have still come from my longer term holdings in proven, profitable companies (e.g. AAPL and KMP).
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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