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OnlinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for March 20, 2008 - HCBK, MOS, MO [Re: snoot]
    #8175997 - 03/21/08 01:45 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

That is a fascinating technology indeed, and an interesting speculative stock. The chart you presented above depicts the performance only up until January 2007. Unfortunately, the stock lost some 42% of its value in 2007, and has taken a 39% hit over only the last three months, with shares currently trading around $0.90. Definitely an extremely tiny speculative stock. The company is still not profitable, however their earnings and revenues have been improving year over year, and they even paid down practically all of their debt in 2007... which makes the steep stock price decline quite curious.

After checkin' out their latest 10-K filing (quarterly report), it's starting to make more sense. I am not happy with the fact that this company has only two sales agreements, and that the larger of those customers is past due on his deposits.
Quote:

During the three months ended January 31, 2008, approximately $75,000 (70%) of the Company’s revenue was generated from the sale and installation of manufactured parts to one customer. In addition, approximately $33,000 (30%) of the Company’s revenue was derived from the amortization of two distributorship agreements.



On May 10, 2007, the Company entered into a Plasma Converter System ("PCS") purchase agreement with a customer for an aggregate sales price of $19,275,000. The purchase price is being paid in installments and the Company received $9,155,500 through January 31, 2008. As of January 31, 2008, deposits aggregating $3,373,250 were past due and are reflected in accounts receivable. The Company currently expects product delivery to occur during the fourth calendar quarter of 2008.

On August 10, 2007, the Company entered into a Plasma Converter System ("PCS") purchase agreement with a customer for an aggregate sales price of $5,400,000. On August 20, 2007, the Company received a down payment of $540,000 from the customer. The remainder of the purchase price is scheduled to be paid in installments. As of March 5, 2008, the Company agreed to a revised payment schedule with the customer and received a $300,000 installment payment subsequent to January 31, 2008. The Company currently expects product delivery to occur during the first calendar quarter of 2009.




I would really like to see that whale of a customer make his $3.4 million of overdue deposits before investing in this company - though given that the same customer has already paid off about half of his contract in the amount of ~$9 million, I suppose he won't walk away from the agreement at this point. Some other concerns:
Quote:

Purchase Commitment. On December 14, 2007, we executed a purchase order agreement to purchase certain inventory items for a total purchase price of $3,230,000 and paid a deposit of $646,000. The remaining payments, including $484,500 paid subsequent to January 31, 2008, are scheduled to be paid in installments over twenty-six weeks.


Gross Profit. Gross profit was $4,940 for the three months ended January 31, 2008, compared to $14,719 in the same period in fiscal 2007, or a decrease of $9,779 or 66.4%, due to a shift in the business mix.

Selling Expenses. Selling expenses for the three months ended January 31, 2008 were $191,644, compared to $164,818 for the same period in the prior year, an increase of $26,826, or 16.3%, primarily due to certain deferred selling costs being charged off because signing up the prospective client is no longer deemed to be probable.

General and Administrative Expenses. General and administrative expenses for the three months ended January 31, 2008 were $1,214,733, compared to $541,512 for the same period in fiscal 2007, an increase of $673,221, or 124.3% . Salary costs increased by $173,355, from $294,495 to $467,850, primarily due to an increase in headcount in our engineering and design departments. Professional fees expense increased by $386,719, from $66,545 to $453,264, primarily due to additional resources required to comply with existing and new SEC filing requirements, including two registration statement amendments.





They sound like they have a potentially promising future ahead of 'em, but there is a lot of risk given their unprofitability and reliance on very few customers. You buying some?


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Re: Stock Update for March 20, 2008 - HCBK, MOS, MO [Re: geokills]
    #8177887 - 03/21/08 10:11 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Yeah I'm in complete agreement, the company has just started and is blossoming, I can't imagine such technology having a great future.


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Re: Stock Update for March 20, 2008 - HCBK, MOS, MO [Re: snoot]
    #8177893 - 03/21/08 10:12 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

I've already bought some shares, not much, when I get more capital I plan on throwing them some more money. I really like there idea.


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Stock Update for March 26, 2008 - MOS, SIRI, AUY [Re: geokills]
    #8196690 - 03/26/08 01:54 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Oil and agriculture are resuming their leadership positions today with much strength. Even technology is showing signs of life. Already having a lot of oil exposure (14.1% of the portfolio), I'm not so interested in making anymore purchases in that sector at this time. However, I am considering swapping some of my British Petroleum (BP) for more Petrobras (PBR), as BP has been having some troubles with its Russian division thanks to the pesky Russian government. My agriculture position is also quite large (over 15% prior to today), and with that in mind, I made an adjustment in my portfolio to help book some profits and reduce my risk exposure to that sector.


  • Mosaic (MOS) - Currently Trading at $103

    On my last update on March 20th, I noted adding to my position in this name at $90. Now some 14% above that level in less than one week, I am giving those shares back to book my gains and prepare for a potential pullback since the market has been very strong over the last week and by no means should we get too cocky when quick gains are made. I still carry a fairly sizable position of Mosaic in my portfolio (~5%), believing in the long-term secular growth story for the agricultural sector, but I also believe it is especially important in this volatile environment to actively trade around a core position in order to profit from the wild swings that manifest in this type of uncertain market. There will also be a USDA report coming out next Monday which will provide clues on the outlook for agricultural companies. Now that corn-based ethanol is being realized for the inefficient practice that it is, it is likely that farmers will be swapping their corn fields for soybeans, which will not require as much nitrogen fertilizer and are easier to harvest. With Mosaic making a large market in nitrogen fertilizers, I want to be cautious ahead of the report, in case the news acts as a downside catalyst on the stock. I don't think it's going to be terrible, but in conjunction with the recent strength in the market, I really want to play it safe.



  • Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) - Currently Trading at $3.01

    I've been noting my interest in this name in other Money Matters threads due to its speculated merger with XM Satellite Radio. The Department of Justice has finally (after over a year) approved of this merger and now we have only to wait on the FCC to follow suit. Historically speaking, the FCC has always seemed to follow the DOJ's recommendations, and so it is likely this merger will finally happen. The FCC may impose stronger than expected restrictions on the combined company, and this is why I am only putting on half of a position at this time, in order to buy more on any weakness that may manifest. The combined company should experience cost benefit synergies in addition to being able to provide the consumer a more impressive programming lineup. The combined company is also likely to offer an "a la carte" subscription option, where consumers will be able to pick and choose 50 channels and pay about 50% less for a subscription than they currently do for either existing service. Though the "a la carte" system and the rollout of an interoperable (compatible) receiver for both company's satellites are still likely to be at least one year out, I believe this is the perfect time to get into this name at a low price, with the idea that new subscriber growth should substantially improve over the next three years. It would not surprise me to see Sirius trading some 50% higher in the coming year or two. With that said, I have initiated a position in Sirius Satellite Radio at $2.99 a share.



  • Yamana Gold (AUY) - Currently Trading at $16.33

    Reported a mixed quarterly earnings report overnight. The stock is down slightly, but I am not going to make any purchase at this level as it still very close to my cost basis and there could still be more of a correction in store for gold as a commodity. Yamana is growing fast, with sales tripling and profits increasing more than 7 times from the previous year. Unfortunately, their overall earnings per share came in slightly lower than analysts were expecting. Nevertheless, the company has confirmed future guidance, has some of the lowest production costs in the industry, and should continue to grow as it ramps up activity in new South American projects over the coming quarters. With that in mind, I would like to add to this position at $15 a share.


Discretionary Portfolio as of 3/26/2008:
  • 21.6% Cash
  • 12.5% Altria (MO)
  • 7.6% Deere (DE)
  • 7.2% McDonalds (MCD)
  • 7% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
  • 6.9% Jones Apparel (JNY)
  • 5.8% Transocean (RIG)
  • 4.9% British Petroleum (BP)
  • 4.8% Mosaic (MOS)
  • 4.6% Apple (AAPL)
  • 4.4% Hudson City (HCBK)
  • 3.8% AT&T (T)
  • 3.4% Petrobras (PBR)
  • 2.9% Sirius (SIRI)
  • 2.7% Yamana Gold (AUY)


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OfflineMadtowntripper
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Re: Stock Update for March 26, 2008 - MOS, SIRI, AUY [Re: geokills]
    #8196698 - 03/26/08 01:58 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Any way you could let us roughly know the dollar value of some of these investments?

I mean, it's one thing for you to say you initiated a position and I see that it is 3% of your total investments. But it would help me keep track of this better if I could get a $ amount. Maybe a rough guesstimate of your portfolios worth?

If this is information you do not want to share, I completely understand.


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After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus


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Re: Stock Update for March 26, 2008 - MOS, SIRI, AUY [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #8196723 - 03/26/08 02:08 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

The total portfolio value (including the 21.6% cash position) closed today at $69,954.86.
Therefore, every 1% of the portfolio equates to a dollar value of ~ $700 at present.


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Re: Stock Update for March 26, 2008 - MOS, SIRI, AUY [Re: geokills]
    #8196729 - 03/26/08 02:11 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Exactly what I wanted to know.

Thanks again.


--------------------
After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus


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Re: Stock Update for March 26, 2008 - MOS, SIRI, AUY [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #8196740 - 03/26/08 02:16 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

I typically like to initiate positions with between $1500 - $2500, and if I have strong conviction, am willing to build an individual position up to $10,000. Generally, I try to keep each position around $5000 at any given time. If a given name happens to be down heavily or if there's a near-term catalyst (as is the case with my Altria position), I am happy to commit more. If the position has been outperforming the market by a long shot (as was the case with my Hudson City position), I am happy to book some profits and wait for the stock to pullback before recommitting capital.


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Stock Update for March 27, 2008 - AUY, SIRI [Re: geokills]
    #8200767 - 03/27/08 10:21 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

All of the names in my portfolio are behaving today, except for two...



  • Yamana Gold (AUY) - Currently Trading at $15.35

    As suspected, the poor quarterly report is resulting in further weakness. Having bounced off of its earlier lows on the session, this stock got hit with an analyst downgrade which suggested that it will be difficult for Yamana to live up to its future guidance, and reduced the 12 month price target from $26 to $23 (still well above current levels). These concerns stem largely from operating problems following the closing of their Meridian Gold acquisition in January. Now that an entire quarter has passed, I would think the growing pains from this acquisition are mostly behind us. Gold prices should remain strong, and Yamana still has some of the lowest cash production costs in the industry. With that in mind, I picked up 75 shares this morning at $15.25, building the position up to 4% of the portfolio. This still leaves me with room to add more shares on further weakness, should the stock trade down closer to $14.


  • Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) - Currently Trading at $2.89

    Down over 4% so far today, it looks like the recent Goldman Sachs downgrade in conjunction will fallout from ClearChannel's failing deal is affecting this stock. That's OK, as noted I have expected some near-term weakness as we wait for the FCC to make its statement regarding the Sirius/XM merger. Even then, it'll take at least a year for the two companies to start firing together on all cylinders. With the stock only 3.5% below my basis, I am going to sit tight for now and look to pick up more shares should the stock fall closer to $2.75 - but for anyone new to this name, this looks like a great place to start scaling into your position.


My Discretionary Portfolio as of mid-day 3/27/2008:
  • 20% Cash
  • 12.6% Altria (MO)
  • 7.6% Deere (DE)
  • 7.2% McDonalds (MCD)
  • 7% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
  • 6.9% Jones Apparel (JNY)
  • 5.9% Transocean (RIG)
  • 4.9% Mosaic (MOS)
  • 4.9% British Petroleum (BP)
  • 4.5% Apple (AAPL)
  • 4.4% Hudson City Bank (HCBK)
  • 4.1% Yamana Gold (AUY)
  • 3.8% AT&T (T)
  • 3.4% Petrobras (PBR)
  • 2.8% Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI)


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InvisibleLiquidkick
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Re: Stock Update for March 27, 2008 - AUY, SIRI [Re: geokills]
    #8203147 - 03/27/08 07:57 PM (15 years, 9 months ago)

did you start with 69K?

Or grow to 69K?

be interested to hear how long it took to grow it if you did.


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Re: Stock Update for March 27, 2008 - AUY, SIRI [Re: Liquidkick]
    #8205327 - 03/28/08 09:12 AM (15 years, 9 months ago)

I started with around $10K in 2004, but by no means is the remaining portion all profit.  I have been adding cash to my portfolio periodically as I turn profit from my retail business and some small scale property management.  I haven't figured my exact long-term record, but generally speaking I was down a few % points from 2004 - 2006.  This underperformance centered around my tendancy to buy and sell my positions all at once, with little or no cash to take advantage of unforeseen drops in the market, and no selling discipline in taking profits incrementally as individual stocks rose over time.  If a stock was going up and up, I was hesitant to sell any because I didn't want to miss further upside.  In essence, I was being both greedy and lazy.

2007 was a solid year, up 24%.  I was starting to put more time into my research, and beginning to realize the importance of the various trading strategies which I've listed in the first post of this thread.  Of course, I also had some great names that more than made up for any blunders - holdings such as Apple, Google, Transocean, American Ecology, and Diagio.

Unfortunately, I added about $25K to my portfolio last December right before the market took its nosedive... so I've ended up giving back a lot of my 2007 gains.  Even though the portfolio didn't fall as much %-wise (12% down versus 24% up). I had a lot more cash in play, so the monetary hit was really disgusting. :frown:

The heavy losses in January came as a bit of a wakeup call that I can't just willy nilly this.  If I'm going to keep a substantial portion of my assets involved in the stock market and expect to do well with it, I better take it dead seriously!  That's why I'm keeping this journal, to help me keep track of my investments, learn where certain strategies worked (and where they failed), and I'll aim to record a detailed summary of my performance at year end.


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Re: Stock Update for March 27, 2008 - AUY, SIRI [Re: geokills]
    #8206585 - 03/28/08 02:16 PM (15 years, 9 months ago)

Well, I am deeply appreciative.

Question for today. You often talk about making decisions about your stocks based on information found in a companies Quarterly or Annual Reports. I've went scoping for these and I see they are usually available buried deep in the "Investor Relations" section of the companies website.

But I would assume there is a database or clearing-house of these where they are made easily available to the public? Would I be wrong in that assumption?

Thanks in advance.


--------------------
After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus


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InvisibleLiquidkick
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Re: Stock Update for March 27, 2008 - AUY, SIRI [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #8206658 - 03/28/08 02:30 PM (15 years, 9 months ago)

SEC has them all. You can search the SEC EDGAR database.


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Re: Stock Update for March 27, 2008 - AUY, SIRI [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #8206918 - 03/28/08 03:32 PM (15 years, 9 months ago)

As noted, http://www.sec.gov maintains corporate filings. Discount online brokerage firms such as TD Ameritrade (the one I use) also conveniently organize information such as the quarterly/annual reports, balance sheets, independent research analysis, earnings estimates and earnings history for most corporations right on their website, making for considerably more efficient researching.


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Stock Update for March 31, 2008 - MO, PM, SGP, JNY, T, BP [Re: geokills]
    #8219460 - 03/31/08 01:34 PM (15 years, 9 months ago)

An action packed day with some major moves for my portfolio... a few maneuvers and
shuffling to understand, reopening a closed position, and looking for ways to simplify.


  • Altria (MO) & Philip Morris (PM) - Currently Trading at $22.50 & 53.00 respectively

    The spin off of Altria's international tobacco business was implemented today, which gave investors 1 share of the new Phillip Morris (PM) for each 1 share of Altria (MO) owned. This distribution allocated approximately 30% of the original value to the existing MO shares, and 70% to the new PM shares. The newly separated international division (PM) gained 4 - 5% in value by mid-day whereas the domestic Altria (MO) is trading fairly flat. This is a great example of how simplifying a company by spinning off divisions can unlock shareholder value even though the actual businesses themselves haven't changed much. Since Friday's closing price, Altria & Philip Morris have created an additional 4 - 5 % of value practically out of thin air (edit: by the time the market closed, both names had retreated to a combined value which was essentially equal to MO's friday close - I maintain however, that the shares will be bid up over time).

    The domestic business (MO) will still carry a handsome dividend north of 5%, but growth isn't going to be a driver as tobacco markets in the US are shrinking. Therefore, I must decide whether the dividend yield, buyback program, and relatively stable price action on this stock are enough to justify holding it from here on out. On the other hand, the international Philip Morris (PM) has a lot of growth ahead of it, especially in emerging markets like China and Southeast Asia where the company still has a small presence. PM is also likely to declare a dividend which will yield around 3.5%. With all that in mind, I am going to sell 20 shares of PM at $53 (leaving me with 100 shares), not because I don't like the stock, but because the position has grown too large with respect to my other holdings in the portfolio, and I want to make sure that I build up a little cash to help offset a purchase as noted below.




  • Schering-Plough (SGP) - Currently Trading at $14.45

    This was recommended in the first post of this thread, though I quickly bailed before its sickening decline over the past couple of months, and even made a quick buck when the stock dipped below $18 in a panic move that later bounced back up to $22, where I booked short term profits. Over the weekend, the American College of Cardiology suggested that Vytorin should only be prescribed to patients as a last resort. This suggestion is a result of another Vytorin study that showed the cholesterol drug failed to work any better than existing generic alternatives (same result as the initial ENHANCE study which kicked off the recent decline in SGP). Of course this isn't new news, there are no new health risks to the drug, it simply doesn't work any better than existing (cheaper) alternatives. The stock is taking a beating however, down over 25% on the day in a move that seems to signal fears of bankruptcy! This huge destruction of market capitalization will effectively price in the speculation that Vytorin will not be on the market in the future, which isn't likely (even though sales will undoubtedly decline). Vytorin generated $5 - 6 billion of revenue in 2007, but Schering's stock has lost some $25 billion in market capitalization from its October highs.

    SGP acquired Organon Biosciences last year, which has a great late-stage clinical pipeline of new drugs when most other pharma companies are losing patent protection on existing drugs and have no new drugs lined up to make up for it. One of the drugs from Organon, Bridion (aka suggamadex - which counteracts anesthesia and is likely to be used in operating rooms worldwide to bring people out of their chemically induced unconsciousness quicker) is expected to receive FDA approval in the second quarter of this year. Further exacerbating the decline today (as this is the last day of the first quarter), fund managers are trying to make themselves look good by loading up on stocks which have performed well and ditching those which haven't (like SGP)... so that on their quarterly reports to their investors, it looks like they really know what they're doing.

    In short, I believe that this single day move which has wiped out most of the positive moves made over the past five years is overdone, that SGP's Organon Biosciences acquisition will provide strong future growth for the company, and that we have fully priced in a complete discontinuation of Vytorin sales (even though I don't think the drug will be discontinued - especially given that Merck and Schering-Plough have initiated a new 18,000 individual study on the drug which will last for four years). That said, I believe this is a unique opportunity to buy a troubled stock on the cheap, and have bought an uncharacteristically large position of 375 shares at $14.50, or 7.5% of the portfolio.




  • Jones Apparel (JNY) - Currently Trading at $13.37

    News out of JC Penney last friday pre-announcing a huge 30 - 40% decline in their first quarter earnings forecast signals extreme weakness in the consumer retail sector. This does worry me, and Jones will no doubt be under continued pressure because of it. Furthermore, the upcoming earnings season I don't believe will produce much good news, and will probably place a lot of blame on the weak consumer and economy, which will further pressure retail stocks like JNY. As a result, this position is likely to be painful, but the 4% dividend yield is strong and is preventing me from taking any action at this point in time. On strength, I may opt to swap out of this position for Costco Wholesale (COST), which may not have as much upside, but likewise doesn't carry as much risk.




  • AT&T (T) - Currently Trading at $38.40

    I am closing this position in my discretionary portfolio today. After dividends, this sale will book a profit better than 10%. I don't dislike this name, but the stock has seen a nice recovery off of its recent lows, and competition in the telecom space will be heating up. For now, the majors (including AT&T and Verizon) are focused on stealing Sprint's market share, which could present further near-term upside. With that in mind, I still own 136 shares of T in my retirement portfolio. One of the primary reasons I'm kicking this one out of my discretionary portfolio is simply because the portfolio is getting bloated with too many names, and with the re-initiation of SGP, I want to re-build my cash position and book some profits.




  • British Petroleum (BP) - Currently Trading at $60.60

    This one has me torn. Already holding a fair lot of oil sector exposure through my positions in Transocean (RIG) and Petrobras (PBR), I feel that this is the weakest of the three. What has me holding on for now is its hefty 5% dividend yield. However, the Russian government has been pressuring BP's Russian division through excess regulation (harassing workers over their Visas), and just today the Supreme Court ruled that Delaware can veto a new $500 million liquid natural gas facility off the shore of New Jersey, which BP was going to build. If we see a lot of near-term strength in the oil patch, this will probably be the first position that I begin to sell. In looking for a comparably stable, high yielding investment, I would consider re-allocating the funds into a utility such as Consolidated Edison (ED), which is down handily and now yielding 6% annually.


My Discretionary Portfolio as of 3/31/2008:
  • 18.4% Cash
  • 7.7% Deere (DE)
  • 7.4% Phillip Morris (PM)
  • 7.3% Schering-Plough (SGP)
  • 7.3% McDonalds (MCD)
  • 7.1% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
  • 6.4% Jones Apparel (JNY)
  • 5.9% Transocean (RIG)
  • 4.9% Mosaic (MOS)
  • 4.8% British Petroleum (BP)
  • 4.6% Apple (AAPL)
  • 4.4% Hudson City Bank (HCBK)
  • 3.9% Yamana Gold (AUY)
  • 3.9% Altria (MO)
  • 3.4% Petrobras (PBR)
  • 2.8% Sirius Satellite (SIRI)


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Edited by geokills (03/31/08 10:35 PM)


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OfflineRedstorm
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Re: Stock Update for March 31, 2008 - MO, PM, SGP, JNY, T, BP [Re: geokills]
    #8223088 - 04/01/08 05:12 AM (15 years, 9 months ago)

Hell yes.

I got onboard for a few hundred stocks of COMS when it was being speculated that they would be bought out by Bain Capital and a Chinese firm. The deal fell through, but I am holding the stock because I feel it has value and another buyout offer in the future is likely.

Anyways, the stock rose 4% during trading hours yesterday and another 6% after the market closed. There are reports that insiders have bought $1.67M in stock yesterday, so hopefully something big is going to go down.


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Stock Update for April 2, 2008 - AUY, JNY, MOS, SGP [Re: geokills]
    #8228913 - 04/02/08 02:19 PM (15 years, 9 months ago)

  • Yamana Gold (AUY) - Currently Trading at $14.58

    Bought 80 shares at $14.10, as gold experienced continued short-term weakness yesterday, bringing the spot price below $900 an ounce. It rose slightly today, but is still trading just below $900 an ounce. I believe that gold's run is not over yet, and with the dollar still near its lows, this is an important hedge for the portfolio. This purchase increases this position to 5.5% of the portfolio.


  • Jones Apparel (JNY) - Currently Trading at $14.30

    Gave back 80 shares of JNY at $14.30 today. I still believe in Jones as an early-cycle play, for when our economy rebounds. And the 4% dividend yield offers excellent support for the stock while we wait for that to happen. However, with JC Penny's profit warning last friday, I want to play it cautious throughout earnings season, as retailers may be missing their estimates which could put pressure on the whole group. I will look to re-purchase these shares should Jones fall back toward $13.


  • Mosaic (MOS) - Currently Trading at $100.17

    Not taking any action on this name today, though I am tempted to sell a piece of my position ahead of their earnings report come friday. While I definitely believe in the long-term agricultural bull market and the increased demand for the fertilizer products Mosaic provides, I am a little concerned that the expectations for this stock have gotten too high. Nevertheless, having booked some profits near this level last week, I figure I may as well hold on. One other concern here is the wild volatility. This stock has been experiencing swings between $90 - $108 over the past couple of weeks, and it is not uncommon to see it swing 5 - 10% in a single day. Looking at one of its competitors, Potash (POT), which is a slightly larger company with more stable earnings, I wonder if I shouldn't swap into that name simply to avoid all of this gut wrenching volatility? If there is strong upside ahead of the friday earnings report, I may pare back this position. Otherwise, I will wait this one out.


  • Schering-Plough (SGP) - Currently Trading at $13.85

    Looks like I was a little over zealous on this one. Today's 6% slide on the stock (now 4% below my cost basis), serves as a sober reminder that I shouldn't let my conviction trump my discipline. As I noted in my last update when I picked up these shares, I initiated with an "uncharacteristically large" position of 375 shares. Well now I'm feeling the pain because of that reckless maneuver. With the stock experiencing continued weakness, I am not comfortable averaging down since the position is already a significant 7% of the portfolio. Nevertheless, this is a company that has been around the block and weathered these storms before. With the Organon Biosciences acquisition under its belt and the myriad of new drugs in the pipeline thanks to it, I maintain that there should be significant long-term upside to this name. Even so, I am kicking myself for being so cocky by buying all at once on Monday.


Discretionary Portfolio as of 4/2/2008:
  • 18.2% Cash
  • 7.6% Deere (DE)
  • 7.4% McDonalds (MCD)
  • 7.3% Philip Morris Intl (PM)
  • 7.1% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
  • 7% Schering-Plough (SGP)
  • 6% Transocean (RIG)
  • 5.5% Yamana Gold (AUY)
  • 5.1% Jones Apparel (JNY)
  • 4.9% British Petroleum (BP)
  • 4.7% Mosaic (MOS)
  • 4.6% Apple (AAPL)
  • 4.6% Hudson City (HCBK)
  • 3.8% Altria (MO)
  • 3.6% Petrobras (PBR)
  • 2.8% Sirius Satellite (SIRI)


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


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Re: Stock Update for April 2, 2008 - AUY, JNY, MOS, SGP [Re: geokills]
    #8229122 - 04/02/08 03:07 PM (15 years, 9 months ago)

My JP Morgan stock just gave out .38 per share dividends today. I don't know why though lol but whatever it makes me happy.

Just wondering, why do you buy AUY over GLD?


Edited by Derk (04/02/08 03:30 PM)


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Re: Stock Update for April 2, 2008 - AUY, JNY, MOS, SGP [Re: Derk]
    #8233731 - 04/03/08 02:28 PM (15 years, 9 months ago)

> why do you buy AUY over GLD?

I haven't been much of an ETF man myself, though it is a nice way to play a sector trend. The GLD is fine, but I am more comfortable with individual stocks. Why hold an ETF which baskets many good companies along with plenty of bad ones, when you can try to select only the cream of the crop and focus your investment on the best names? One answer is of course diversification - if you don't want to worry about individual companies, a strong sector's ETF can help you capture some gains while reducing your overall risk profile. But you're also limiting your upside potential on account of all the companies which won't do well, that are bundled into the ETF. Yamana (AUY) is growing at a nice clip, and though the spot price of gold does hold great influence over the direction of the stock's price, so too does its growth potential provide the opportunity for additional upside.


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...π╥ ╥π...


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Stock Update for April 3, 2008 - MOS, SGP, DE, SDS [Re: geokills]
    #8233887 - 04/03/08 03:07 PM (15 years, 9 months ago)

With the market having made some strong advances over the last two weeks and staying relatively flat over the last couple of days ahead of the jobs report tomorrow; I am booking some profits in names that vastly outperformed on the day, as well as hedging my longs with a small position in an UltraShort ProShares ETF.


  • Mosaic (MOS) - Sold 12 shares at $108.15

    The agricultural sector showed a lot of strength today, with Mosaic up over 7% by mid-day. I used this opportunity to sell about 1/3 of my position ahead of its friday earnings report. The stock has lofty expectations, and though there still exists a long term positive trend for fertilizers and strong pricing power on behalf of companies like Mosaic, the market has had a nice run recently and is reaching overbought territory as indicated by various technical indicators. The volatility in Mosaic in conjunction with the high expectations for future growth make me a little nervous, and I figure I should take some profits while I got 'em! Today's sale will cut this position to 3.1% of the portfolio, but I may be a buyer tomorrow if there is weakness after the earnings report.



  • Schering-Plough (SGP) - Sold 100 shares at $15.27

    The company today announced expected layoffs and cost-cutting procedures that intend to reduce expenses by 10% by 2012, which should save the company about $1.5 billion. I still believe this stock was taken down too hard on Monday, and the news today acted as a great upside catalyst to regain some ground. Up better than 10% on the day, I decided to sell about 1/3 of my position for a small short-term gain, though this position is still a fairly significant 5.4% of the portfolio.



  • Deere & Co (DE) - Sold 16 shares at $83.25

    Another agricultural name that has benefitted from overall sector strength today. I want to "right-size" this position as it has grown to one of my largest at over 7% of the portfolio (and is in the same sector as Mosaic), so I have opted to sell about 1/4 of the position today, though this remains a significant 5.9% of the portfolio.



  • UltraShort ProShares ETF (SDS) - Bought 43 shares at $59.60

    This ETF returns two-times the inverse of the S&P 500 index. Therefore if the market goes down by 1%, this holding should return 2% in profit (and vice versa). Now that we've seen two weeks of strong gains and the various technical oscillators/indicators are showing that the market is overbought, I believe we could be in store for a bit of a pull back. In light of the expected jobs number tomorrow which is likely to support recessionary fears, I am putting 3.6% of the portfolio into this UltraShort ETF as a downside hedge against my long positions. Even if the market goes up tomorrow, I will probably hang onto this and add to it if we see continued strong gains. Because ultimately, the market is not out of the woods yet and there should still be some serious volatility over the coming months. I'd like to have somewhere to turn for profit on those down days, and this UltraShort ETF will provide that downside protection.


Discretionary Portfolio as of 4/3/2008:
  • 20.1% Cash
  • 7.2% Philip Morris Intl (PM)
  • 7.2% McDonalds (MCD)
  • 7% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
  • 6% Transocean (RIG)
  • 5.9% Deere (DE)
  • 5.4% Schering-Plough (SGP)
  • 5.4% Yamana Gold (AUY)
  • 5% Jones Apparel (JNY)
  • 4.9% British Petroleum (BP)
  • 4.7% Apple (AAPL)
  • 4.5% Hudson City Bank (HCBK)
  • 3.7% Altria (MO)
  • 3.6% UltraShort ProShares ETF (SDS)
  • 3.6% Petrobras (PBR)
  • 3.1% Mosaic (MOS)
  • 2.7% Sirius Satellite (SIRI)


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


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