Home | Community | Message Board

MushroomCube.com
This site includes paid links. Please support our sponsors.


Welcome to the Shroomery Message Board! You are experiencing a small sample of what the site has to offer. Please login or register to post messages and view our exclusive members-only content. You'll gain access to additional forums, file attachments, board customizations, encrypted private messages, and much more!

Shop: Kraken Kratom Red Vein Kratom   Unfolding Nature Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order   PhytoExtractum Maeng Da Thai Kratom Leaf Powder

Jump to first unread post Pages: < First | < Back | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | Next > | Last >
OfflineHotnuts
old hand
 User Gallery


Registered: 02/26/05
Posts: 3,436
Loc: Wild Blue Yawnder
Last seen: 25 days, 13 hours
Re: Stock Update for July 21, 2011 - PAL, UEC, CSX, CALM, SJM [Re: Stonehenge]
    #14880854 - 08/06/11 11:43 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

One thing I do not mess with is, companies that have slippage on stop losses! No sir. My broker "guarantees" stops! Never had a problem, even in the most violent of moves.

Being the first time ever, hard to say what S&P's downgrade will do. It's not exactly the end of the world, but the timing of the downgrade is the problem. Markets have had a lot to deal with over the past 2 months and now this! lol!!!! Fantastic economic recovery! Oddly enough, the signs you see in credit markets that point to recession like, credit availability tightening up and an inverted treasury yield curve, aren't happening "yet". We'll see how the downgrade affects these things, but they aren't remotely coming close to signaling recession. In which, 15 billion in consumer credit issuance m/m, also clearly shows. Crazy markets.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleStonehenge
Alt Center
Male User Gallery
Registered: 06/20/04
Posts: 14,850
Loc: S.E.
Re: Stock Update for July 21, 2011 - PAL, UEC, CSX, CALM, SJM [Re: Hotnuts]
    #14881127 - 08/06/11 01:17 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

HN, your broker guarantees stops? I didn't know any of them did. I assume they charge a higher fee than the discount brokers? Might be worth it, huh geo? I've been hit by that before but overall i've been lucky. Plus i haven't done stocks much.

>Being the first time ever, hard to say what S&P's downgrade will do. It's not exactly the end of the world, but the timing of the downgrade is the problem. Markets have had a lot to deal with over the past 2 months and now this! lol!!!!

Yeah that's the thing. Not only the debt and deficit problem which has not been solved but also the ongoing mortgage mess. Fanny mae and freddy are losing money like mad. Then across the pond we see europe perhaps worse off than us. Certainly ireland, greece, portugal and italy are worse off. They are talking about a bailout for them but it will cost a lot more than the greek one. The eu may crumble. Japan is struggling and spain is not doing so well. Is anyone doing well except perhaps china and germany?

Half of the stock markets moves are related to emotion and perceived events, not to the actual events themselves. Why is it that sound stocks go down too when the market in general takes a dive like in '08? I'm waiting for another downturn and wailing that the market is about to crash for good. That's the time to get in.

>Fantastic economic recovery!

Yeah, a jobless recovery in which no one seems to have recovered.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 6 hours, 36 minutes
Re: Stock Update for August 3, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: DieCommie]
    #14881945 - 08/06/11 05:15 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Nice picture DieCommie!  Crater Lake was wonderful, a similar day to the one you show in your picture, with some big puffy thunderclouds, brilliantly deep blue waters, pleasant temperatures, and even a bit of snow remaining on the ground even though its August (this place gets 50 some odd feet of snow each year!).  Loved it, can't wait to go back and explore some more. :smile:

Hotnuts, I'd like to hear more about your guaranteed stops.  That seems a little too good to be true, unless you are using put options in place of typical sell stop protection?  I mean, what if you had bought Dendreon on Wednesday at $35 and placed a stop at $33.  As soon as earnings were reported on Wednesday afternoon, the shares gaped down from $35.28 to $15, with no trades taking place in between those two price levels.  How then, could your sell stop have been filled at the intended $33 unless you are purchasing some additional insurance agreement?

On to matters surrounding the national debt downgrade, I personally don't believe anyone in their right mind would have expected this would not happen.  On the other hand, I'm sure plenty of people did not expect it to happen so soon.  In the long run, I don't think that this issue in and of itself should have any major lasting affect on the market, due to the fact that the majority of the rest of the world is in the same boat... and as long as we're all sinking together, the US should remain the de facto debt issuer of highest confidence.  Nevertheless, the downgrade could surely perpetuate the high volatility we have seen this past week and continue to cause some near term pain.

For my part, I will be very actively watching the markets this week.  If we see a big woosh down on Monday morning, I will be waiting for the S&P to re-take or hold 1168 as a short term buy signal, with upside targets on the S&P at 1200, 1230 and 1250.  Should this scenario play out, I expect my upside bias to persist for anywhere from 2 weeks to 3 months, and will loosely plan my trading positions for that time frame; scaling out of positions as the aforementioned upside targets are met, or if the 1168 level subsequently breaks down.  If we do get up to the 1250 target, I will be looking for selling pressure to resume somewhere between 1250 and 1270, which should provide a good opportunity to put on some short positions, or to buy some put options on the SPY.

My shopping list for Monday includes uptrending stocks that have not suffered severe break downs, including:
  • AAPL
  • AMZN
  • CMG
  • ISRG
  • ZAGG
  • IBM
  • GOOG
  • CVX
  • NSC


I will also be watching for any more flash crashes (what we saw two Friday's ago in NLY or AGNC), as an opportunity to add to high yielding positions in the height of the fear.


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleStonehenge
Alt Center
Male User Gallery
Registered: 06/20/04
Posts: 14,850
Loc: S.E.
Re: Stock Update for August 3, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
    #14886819 - 08/07/11 06:01 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Your tips have proven good in the past, geo. What i'm looking for is a stampede, a movement born of fear. We've already seen some of that. I think you could make money investing in the coming week. But i'm looking for that stampede where many or most are heading for the exits. That's when you can make some serious coin. OTOH, i'm not ready for long term yet, i'm going to look for an exit point and grab some profit, as you seem to be suggesting. After that i'll just be playing it by ear.

I do suspect another dip could be in the works after the upcoming one.  Look for dips this coming week. Anytime during the week you could practically steal some money, if i'm correct and if you've done your homework. I'm looking for friday through the next tuesday to be prime time for grabbing deals. This is just based on my private system which has not made me rich so take it for what it's worth. I did say jump in back in early march of '08. But i may turn out to be a one hit wonder or might go 2 for 2. I'm thinking another dip later on but not for a month or so. When will we hit bottom? You tell me and we'll both get rich.

Be watching lots of stocks you might be interested in, look at how they did in the last crash in and around '08. If there is actual reason why they aren't doing as well, then maybe buy but only if the price gets too low to pass up. If there is no reason and they are doing well but the price tanks, this might  just be the time to jump in. But spread it around so that one bad pick doesn't ruin you. I"m thinking a "bad" pick based on good fundamentals will return 30% in  a month and a good pick... lets just see. Luck is part of it.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinepothead_bob
Resident Pothead
Male


Registered: 04/12/08
Posts: 1,811
Loc: Your computer screen
Last seen: 3 years, 9 months
Re: Stock Update for July 21, 2011 - PAL, UEC, CSX, CALM, SJM [Re: Hotnuts]
    #14887034 - 08/07/11 07:17 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Hotnuts said:
Quote:

pothead_bob said:
I bought a book on technical analysis about a year ago.  I read it, set up a practice account, and tried my hand at trading on tech analysis.  It didn't work out for me.  It was just too confusing.  There were too many times that the market didn't follow the rules that were laid out in the book.  There were too many exceptions to rules on interpreting a candlestick chart. 

You may be able to make money with in-depth study of tech analysis, but you also need to be doing research every day.  I just decided it was way too time consuming and went with a buy and hold, long-term, asset-class based investing approach using index funds.  I check my investments once a month and check the percentages of total worth to decide where new investment money needs to go.

It's been giving me good returns, is relatively simple, and allows me to sleep at night.




What book? Technical analysis is a great tool for trading the markets, but you need to pay attention to market reactions/tendencies to events/reports and get a good grip on timing the markets as well. Paying attention to other markets that are leading indicators for risk appetite, is also extremely key. Markets that actually have a clue on economic developments, unlike U.S. equities. The world's dumbest markets.




I believe I read two different books.  It was about a year ago and I can't really remember what the titles were.  They didn't really leave an impact on me.  One may have been the "Swing Trader's Bible" and another one was on technical analysis --- looking for candlestick patterns and so on. 

Props to you if you can use patterns and your speculation to meet your investing goals.  It just seemed like too much work to me without much in the way of proven better returns, as even the professionals (hedge fund managers) have a difficult time consistently beating the market.

A much better book for me was "The intelligent asset allocator".  That preaches a long-term, buy/hold approach that focuses on using index funds.  The approach is a classical investing approach, the author gave a lot of evidence for it, it's not overly complicated and doesn't require a huge time commitment.  I can't complain about my returns this past year, they were pretty much on par with the market.


--------------------
No knowledge can be certain, if it is not based
upon mathematics or upon some other knowledge
which is itself based upon the mathematical
sciences.
  -Leonardo da Vinci (1425-1519)

Speak well of your enemies.  After all, you made them.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 6 hours, 36 minutes
Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
    #14889592 - 08/08/11 10:21 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

What a day!  Market is not looking healthy at all.  We are below 1168 on the S&P, which is very concerning.
However, I am using this high volatility (which increases the premium paid for options contracts) to implement some credit spreads:

  • Bull Put Spread on WLT (selling the September $70 put, buying the September $65 put)
    This stock lost 50% of its value in the past four months, and is thus far up on a very bad day.
    This bull put spread brought me a credit of $190 per contract.
    Max loss of $310 if WLT is below $65 on September 17.
    Max gain of $190 if WLT is above $70 on September 17.
    Break-even if WLT is at $68.10 on September 17.
    This position will be closed if WLT looks to close below $70.

  • Bull Put Spread on CMG (selling the August $300 put, buying the August $290 put)
    This brought me a credit of $390 per contract.
    Max loss of $610 if CMG is below $290 on August 20th.
    Max gain of $390 if CMG is above $300 on August 20th.
    Break-even if CMG is at $$293.90 on August 20th.
    The position will be closed of CMG looks to close below $300.

  • Bull Put Spread on AAPL (selling the September $375 put, buying the September $365 put)
    More aggressive (wider spread), but a longer time frame to work with.
    This brought me a credit of $500 per contract.
    Max loss of $500 if AAPL is below $365 on September 17.
    Max gain of $500 if AAPL is above $375 on September 17.
    Break-even if AAPL is at $370 on September 17.
    The position will be closed if AAPL looks to close below $354.

  • Bear Call Spread on VXX (selling the August $30 call, buying the August $31 call)
    Because this is an extremely volatile position, I am in small and prepared to let it ride.
    This brought me a credit of $50 per contract.
    Max loss of $100 if VXX is above $31 on August 20.
    Max gain of $50 if VXX is below $30 on August 20.
    Break-even if VXX is at $30.50 on August 20.


The above trades are not for the novice trader, but if you are familiar with options, I would hope that you can see why I have made them.  When volatility in the market is high, this makes option premiums high.  Therefore, simply going long some call options becomes more difficult, since even if the underlying security begins to rise in value over the near-term, the implied volatility will simultaneously decrease, thereby resulting in the premium being sucked out of the contracts.  So even as the intrinsic value of the call option rises with the value of the share price, there will be a premium decay working against you.  One way to mitigate this issue is to buy long dated deep in the money calls, since these will be less vulnerable to time decay and near term volatility.  For a longer term investment strategy, this is not a bad idea (and what I will ultimately do with AAPL if it breaks down below $350).  For a shorter-term "bounce" strategy, the credit spreads become more appropriate; which is why you see me using them today.

On a more conventional trade, I also took a bite of PEET long stock, due to the fact that it is holding up extremely well in a very rough market.

One might inquire why I'm taking any measure of bullish position today, given the action that has thus far played out.  Honestly, I am constantly asking myself that very same question, and setting all my stops in accordance with my risk tolerance.  Depending on how the end of day shapes up, I may take several of these positions off before today's close even if my stops are not hit.  That's simply a function of being prudent in a very difficult market.  On the other hand, the S&P is now testing its targeted downside of 1150 based upon the head and shoulders topping pattern that was created over the past several months.  It is additionally trading three standard deviations away from its 20 day moving average, which is an extremely rare occurrence and historically does not last more than a day or two (note: we've hit that 3rd standard deviation band five times in the past five days, though have only closed there twice).  The rubber band is thus stretched very tightly and likely to snap back.  Can it be stretched even further to the downside?  Absolutely.

Be careful out there!  If you're trading in this battlefield, you MUST use stops to define your risk.  Active traders would do well to watch gold.  It continues to make new highs today, which is also concerning.  To have more confidence in upside for equities, we need to see some selling pressure develop on this precious metal.  Mea culpa on the sale of my GLD calls a few weeks ago.


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineHotnuts
old hand
 User Gallery


Registered: 02/26/05
Posts: 3,436
Loc: Wild Blue Yawnder
Last seen: 25 days, 13 hours
Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
    #14889715 - 08/08/11 10:55 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

"I mean, what if you had bought Dendreon on Wednesday at $35 and placed a stop at $33.  As soon as earnings were reported on Wednesday afternoon, the shares gaped down from $35.28 to $15, with no trades taking place in between those two price levels.  How then, could your sell stop have been filled at the intended $33 unless you are purchasing some additional insurance agreement?"

Nothing additional for protection. Stops are protection orders placed on the exchanges, along with your trade. Problems with slippage occur when brokers have poor hardware/software. Exactly why I don't fool around with U.S. brokers anymore! Never had a good experience when trading in the US. Never. If interested, hit me up privately and i'll turn you onto the broker I use in Europe. But stock trading is CFD and in lots of 100 shares/lot. And only a couple hundred companies across the globe. But, you can buy/sell fractions of a lot. I've got both DMA and Meta accounts with them. Fantastic broker! Best i've ever used.

Edit: Meta accounts are the ones limited to 2-300 stocks. DMA accounts have access to 1000's of securities. Directly to the exchanges. "Guaranteed" stops of course! Both accounts. Opening DMA accounts isn't cheap, though. But, well worth it.


Edited by Hotnuts (08/08/11 11:14 AM)


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 6 hours, 36 minutes
Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
    #14889999 - 08/08/11 12:17 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

  • Bull Put Spread on WLT (selling the September $70 put, buying the September $65 put)
    This stock lost 50% of its value in the past four months, and is thus far up on a very bad day.
    This bull put spread brought me a credit of $190 per contract.
    Max loss of $310 if WLT is below $65 on September 17.
    Max gain of $190 if WLT is above $70 on September 17.
    Break-even if WLT is at $68.10 on September 17.
    This position will be closed if WLT looks to close below $70.

  • Bull Put Spread on CMG (selling the August $300 put, buying the August $290 put)
    This brought me a credit of $390 per contract.
    Max loss of $610 if CMG is below $290 on August 20th.
    Max gain of $390 if CMG is above $300 on August 20th.
    Break-even if CMG is at $$293.90 on August 20th.
    The position will be closed of CMG looks to close below $300.

  • Bull Put Spread on AAPL (selling the September $375 put, buying the September $365 put)
    More aggressive (wider spread), but a longer time frame to work with.
    This brought me a credit of $500 per contract.
    Max loss of $500 if AAPL is below $365 on September 17.
    Max gain of $500 if AAPL is above $375 on September 17.
    Break-even if AAPL is at $370 on September 17.
    The position will be closed if AAPL looks to close below $354.

  • Bear Call Spread on VXX (selling the August $30 call, buying the August $31 call)
    Because this is an extremely volatile position, I am in small and prepared to let it ride.
    This brought me a credit of $50 per contract.
    Max loss of $100 if VXX is above $31 on August 20.
    Max gain of $50 if VXX is below $30 on August 20.
    Break-even if VXX is at $30.50 on August 20.





Closed the VXX Bear Call Spread as well as the CMG Bull Put Spread.  On VXX call spread, I should have chosen a higher (out of the money) strike price in addition to a longer dated contract.  Being in the money and near dated, the risk was high that the VXX may not meet the break-even point of $30.50 within the next 12 days.  On CMG, the stock is in a volatility expansion to the downside while simultaneously breaking the 50 day.  This is a pretty ominous sign, and while I was hoping for the days lows to hold, they did not and we look set to see CMG close below $300.  Thus, I will close this bull put spread and reconsider a new entry if and when CMG either re-takes the 50 day, or tests the $260 - $275 level.  Similarly to the VXX bear call spread, I had chosen a near term contract that expired in 12 days, and that's just too short term (i.e. high risk) for the way this market is acting.

I was also stopped out of PEET for a small loss, but am maintaining my bull put spreads on AAPL and WLT.


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleStonehenge
Alt Center
Male User Gallery
Registered: 06/20/04
Posts: 14,850
Loc: S.E.
Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
    #14890106 - 08/08/11 12:45 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

It's nice that some can keep their heads and calmly follow a strategy when others are running around like chickens with heads cut off. I see the dow is down some 465 as i speak. Just a few minutes ago i looked and it was down only about 340 or so. I'm afraid that those with long positions are going to be hammered. Look for more of same this week as i predicted yesterday.

I'm not yet ready to get in even though there is some blood on the floor. Bargain hunters are snapping up stocks and we may even see another dead cat rebound tomorrow though i wouldn't bet on it. I missed out on all the gains in the last year or so but avoided the clobbering in the last week so i probably evened out without the headache. Stocks are down and you will make some money buying today but not as much (i think) as you will a little later in the week. Right now some are running scared some are looking to pick up deals and some are sitting on the sideline. If we start seeing more of the same, fear will turn to panic and reason goes out the window. The people who bought today will wish they waited but will make a profit if they get out at the right time. Wait until wednesday or later for the panic to set in and prices to go into the basement.

So far, 1 and 1/2 out of two predictions. Not that i wish loss on anyone, but people can always go short, i just call 'em like i see 'em. Good luck to all and happy hunting!


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 6 hours, 36 minutes
Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
    #14890392 - 08/08/11 01:38 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

As an added note, I'm also out of my REITS (NLY and AGNC).  There's serious issues pertaining to the federal mortgage companies (Freddie and Fannie) and debt related issues that in turn raise concerns for NLY and AGNC.  This could very well prove to be a buying opportunity for the longer term, but I wouldn't be surprised to see better prices in the coming months and I'm quite honestly tired of trying to step in front of this train.

As of this writing, I only have my bull put spreads on AAPL and WLT, some LEAPS on BAC, and a little bit of long stock on AAPL and KMP (which will be stopped out on a violation of yesterday's low).  Everything else is cash.  I will look to play a bounce, but I won't trust it for much.

FOMC (Fed) meeting tomorrow could be interesting, but it's not something I want to step in front of.


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineAnonymousRabbit
Comrade
 User Gallery

Registered: 01/10/08
Posts: 8,993
Last seen: 1 year, 4 months
. [Re: geokills]
    #14890597 - 08/08/11 02:10 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

.


--------------------
.


Edited by AnonymousRabbit (05/19/22 12:39 AM)


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 6 hours, 36 minutes
Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
    #14890662 - 08/08/11 02:19 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Rough day, no doubt.  S&P finishing down 6.66% (interesting coincidence given the 2009 low of 666 on the S&P).
In response to your question, I surely believe that it is possible we revisit the 2009 lows, however I have no idea if we will. :shrug:


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlineben_dover0802
shroom addict
Male

Registered: 09/21/08
Posts: 648
Last seen: 7 years, 8 months
Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
    #14890706 - 08/08/11 02:28 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Wow what a day. 

I managed to buy ZAGG as soon as I saw a small bounce and would have scored big today just on intraday jumps (from -9% to +6% at one point) but my funds weren't settled from a sale last thursday so I can't sell ZAGG until tomorrow, what a rookie mistake. Now it is back at -11% 

I am going to mail in the form for a margin account today, not so I can trade with more than I have, but just so it will cover the whole settlement thing so I can score on intraday jumps like today. 

ZAGG still may get a bounce tomorrow though, it bounced off the intraday low of the middle bollinger band on the weekly chart, but damn I tried to sell at about +4% and it would have been sweet. Oh well I guess, still need to stay positive and alert to trade as soon as all this mess clears up. Look at the s&p chart, 1 whole year of an uptrend erased in 3 weeks:eek:


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleStonehenge
Alt Center
Male User Gallery
Registered: 06/20/04
Posts: 14,850
Loc: S.E.
Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #14891079 - 08/08/11 03:33 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

>I managed to buy ZAGG as soon as I saw a small bounce and would have scored big today just on intraday jumps (from -9% to +6% at one point) but my funds weren't settled from a sale last thursday so I can't sell ZAGG until tomorrow, what a rookie mistake. Now it is back at -11% 

I did say those who bought today could make a profit but would wish they had waited. In your case, if you had day traded you could have grabbed a few bucks. Don't worry, it will go back up but sell soon as the cat rises up even a bit or just take the loss. Better opportunities lie just a ways down the road.

I'm more of a psychology player than a technical analyst like geo. What will average joe with some stock in play think when he sees the papers tomorrow or watches the news tonight? "oh my god it's happening again!!!" They were unnerved by last week's events and this could set off the panic i've been talking about. I'd say it's well underway with a good portion of the populace already panicked, many many concerned and a very few mavericks licking their chops at the feast to come. This assumes the market does not go all the way down to zero. There is a mathmatical chance of that but i figure it will go back up sooner or later.

We need technical people like geo and others to show us certain important things. Technical analysis will win in the long run. In the short run it often gets clobbered like in a period such as this one. The long term people will come out with all losses recovered unless they sell too soon and stay out.

I pay close attention to the technical side and listen to geo et al for their invaluable tips but i'm more looking at the mob psychology right now. It's at moments like this that people act the most predictably and you can more or less steal some money. Much more honest stealing than what the bankers did with faulty underwriting and passing the risk to the rest of us. More like honest profits but so fast that people will think we didn't do enough to earn it.

Listen to geo, meams and others with lots of day to day experience. But watch what the crowd is doing and position yourself so you can do the opposite when the time is right. I'm not a day trader so i have no idea what to do with that.

I expect another dip in the short term. Get out of those long positions if you can and be prepared to pounce. I will be making some moves probably in the next big dip.

I expect a comeback but then more dips. This pattern is very reminiscent of the great depression. Look at the charts for that period. Stocks did not just go straight down and stay there. There was a big dip, followed by a steady comeback for a couple years, then another big dip followed by another. It was 10 years before they really climbed back out. That's why i'm looking to grab quick profits and run with my stops in place.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineHotnuts
old hand
 User Gallery


Registered: 02/26/05
Posts: 3,436
Loc: Wild Blue Yawnder
Last seen: 25 days, 13 hours
Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #14891081 - 08/08/11 03:34 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

The odd thing with this equity weakness is, you're not seeing any signs of credit tightening up, whatsoever! Much different than the end of 08. When the credit markets had the crash sniffed out WAY before US equities. When heading into recession, bank lending tightens, considerably. $ LIBOR rates and swap spreads haven't even remotely come close to showing credit tightening signs. We'll see what happens when the fear of the Capitol Hill morons, recedes. If it even does. Major problem, these duds.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineHotnuts
old hand
 User Gallery


Registered: 02/26/05
Posts: 3,436
Loc: Wild Blue Yawnder
Last seen: 25 days, 13 hours
Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: Hotnuts]
    #14891132 - 08/08/11 03:44 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

"Technical analysis will win in the long run. In the short run it often gets clobbered like in a period such as this one."

You missed my Head and Shoulders call S&P, before the pattern even played out, SH? Worked out pretty good, as you can see!

EDIT: In this thread. http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/14581060/page/3/fpart/1/vc/1


Edited by Hotnuts (08/08/11 03:47 PM)


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleStonehenge
Alt Center
Male User Gallery
Registered: 06/20/04
Posts: 14,850
Loc: S.E.
Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: Hotnuts]
    #14891209 - 08/08/11 03:57 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Technical analysis can win in the short run too. I didn't mean to leave you out of my mention of the resident experts. I haven't been following stocks for a while.

The dow lost over 600 and it did better percentage wise than the other major indexes. I don't think tomorrow will be as bad as today but i'm sticking to my guns that another dip is gathering steam. Whatever sheep haven't panicked yet will do so when that happens. Then lets go to work and pick up the money they left on the table. I'll be posting my trades in this thread when i make some.

Happy days are just around the corner. If you jump in correctly.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineYrat
Hello

Registered: 11/08/07
Posts: 2,312
Last seen: 2 years, 10 months
Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: Stonehenge]
    #14891324 - 08/08/11 04:18 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

happy days may remain out of reach until the bernank announces QE3, which i believe to be an inevitability.


--------------------
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
Strike The Root


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleStonehenge
Alt Center
Male User Gallery
Registered: 06/20/04
Posts: 14,850
Loc: S.E.
Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: Yrat]
    #14891913 - 08/08/11 06:16 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Don't you like kmp anymore, geo? It's been solid as a rock with those payments.

The crash started in 08 but didn't really hit bottom until march of the next year. So i meant to say march of 09 not 08. That's when ge could be gotten for 6 a share. I did pick some up just under 7. I should have held them longer before getting out.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineHotnuts
old hand
 User Gallery


Registered: 02/26/05
Posts: 3,436
Loc: Wild Blue Yawnder
Last seen: 25 days, 13 hours
Re: Stock Update for August 8, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: Stonehenge]
    #14895524 - 08/09/11 11:06 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

1144 S&P close today, puts in yet another bullish Piercing candlestick pattern and this pattern does not F around!


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Jump to top Pages: < First | < Back | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | Next > | Last >

Shop: Kraken Kratom Red Vein Kratom   Unfolding Nature Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order   PhytoExtractum Maeng Da Thai Kratom Leaf Powder


Similar ThreadsPosterViewsRepliesLast post
* Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects
( 1 2 3 4 ... 500 501 )
geokillsA 250,333 10,002 01/27/24 05:04 PM
by geokills
* Does this look legit? The24HourMC 1,559 1 03/01/10 02:43 PM
by geokills
* Helium Network [US]: Low Cost Mobile Service with ROI for Providing Distributed Connectivity geokillsA 208 0 01/21/24 10:48 AM
by geokills
* Pretty good interest on my savings, but best strat? skOsH 190 4 01/21/24 03:40 PM
by Bungmurphy

Extra information
You cannot start new topics / You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled / BBCode is enabled
Moderator: geokills, automan
296,586 topic views. 0 members, 0 guests and 1 web crawlers are browsing this forum.
[ Show Images Only | Sort by Score | Print Topic ]
Search this thread:

Copyright 1997-2024 Mind Media. Some rights reserved.

Generated in 0.03 seconds spending 0.008 seconds on 15 queries.