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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for July 21, 2011 - PAL, UEC, CSX, CALM, SJM [Re: Bambi]
    #14805829 - 07/21/11 10:10 PM (12 years, 6 months ago)

> What are the moving day averages you mention?

Any discount broker (i.e. web based trading program, be it Ameritrade, E*trade, Schwab, Fidelity, TradeStation, InteractiveBrokers, TradeMonster, et al) will allow you to customize the charts of the stocks you are analyzing.  The 20, 50, and 200 period moving averages are the most common moving averages used to analyze how well a given stock is performing.  On a daily chart (the most common chart), we're talking about the average price for the last 20 days, another line that plots the average price for the last 50 days, and the slowest of all the typical moving averages, the one that plots the average of the last 200 days of price action.  In time, you will come to learn how to best integrate each moving average into your own investment strategy.  Winning stocks will find themselves above all three moving averages.  This inherently means that the given stock is rising in price, as the average prices of the last 20, 50, and 200 days are below the current price and playing catch up.



> what does every thing on your charts mean?

Investopedia.com is a great resource.  If you ever have a question about what I'm talking about (I try to hyperlink key topics so keep an eye out for those), you can always go to google and type in search_phrase investopedia (for example: moving averages investopedia), and you'll find a concise basic answer I'm sure.  This basic understanding is requisite, but ultimately it is experience that will teach you how best to interpret and utilize these analytic mechanisms.  Don't be afraid to "paper trade" (plan and play trades without real money), in order to develop a winning strategy without risking your dough.  The market will be open again next week, so there's no hurry and definitely no need to force trades.  Every time I try to force a trade, I invariably get my ass handed to me.

Specific to my charts (and many others' I presume), I pay attention to the 20, 50, and 200 day moving averages, including bollinger bands that are built around the 20 day moving average, as well as volume and the MACD (moving average convergence divergence).  The charts you see in my posts show the 20 period moving average as the center blue line, the bollinger bands are the same color above and below the 20 period moving average, and are designed to encompass 90%+ of the closing prices for any given stock.  Bollinger bands are essentially a measure of volatility; when the bands are wide, volatility is high, when they are tight, volatility is low.  As volatility is cyclical (goes in cycles), these bands are very useful in drawing my attention to stocks that are in a transition from periods of low volatility into high volatility, and are thus moving relatively rapidly out of a tight range.  The 50 period moving average on my charts is the dashed grey line, and the 200 period moving average is a fat solid grey line.  Below that price chart, you will see vertical volume bars, indicating how active a given stock is on any given day.  Below volume, you'll see momentum indicators such as MACD (the blue and yellow lines at the bottom of the chart).  While these things seem simple, there's a lot of subtle nuance to understand about reading a chart, so I suggest you do as much reading as you can, and definitely sign up for the free charts (and even the free month of subscription service) at www.StockMarketMentor.com. ; That resource has been invaluable in teaching me to be a better short term trader.



> How do you feel about RIET's?

Love 'em.  I currently own AGNC (paying a 19% annual yield) and NLY (paying a 14.5% annual yield).  You want to make sure you own one with a good management team, that will know how to traverse a changing landscape.  In that vein, I would have to recommend Annaly Capital Management (NLY) as having one of the best management teams around.  Just buy it and put it away in a long term portfolio, it'll have swings, but so long as you don't panic out at the wrong times (and add to your position at the right time), it's a cash flow machine.


Trading isn't particularly easy, but it can be fun and fruitful.  Best of luck to you!


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OfflineBambi
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Re: Stock Update for July 21, 2011 - PAL, UEC, CSX, CALM, SJM [Re: geokills]
    #14806036 - 07/21/11 10:55 PM (12 years, 6 months ago)

I dont have time to digest and read this tonight, but thank you so much for responding and putting the time and effort into personally responding, so far youve been a huge help in starting my brokerage account. i read your bit about RIET's and i have already checked out the two you mentioned and i really like the AGNC, partially because i have family where RIET is based and i believe the company owns in good area.

one RIET i liked prior to finding your advice is Armour Residential (ARR) as it is posting 19.5% yeild and has been as steady as can be for the past 14 or so months and i think it showed a good recovery from its two large falls. check it out if youre interested

Thanks again for all of the help! i'll post again after i get a chance to read your reply


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"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben


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Offlineef2
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Re: Stock Update for July 21, 2011 - PAL, UEC, CSX, CALM, SJM [Re: Bambi]
    #14809929 - 07/22/11 05:05 PM (12 years, 6 months ago)

Thanks for your journals and also for replying to my thread a little back. I've been focused on learning and feel like I have come a long way. Your primer is a good view on the discipline needed to invest and made coming to the shroomery for financial advice not such bad idea :smile:

I've been reading till my eyes hurt on economics/news and am becoming more anxious to setup a broker account. I still really need to get more trading/technical/charting know-how under my belt, but I feel like I'm ready to get my feet wet. I'm %100 $CDN right now, seeing some things I like and am just looking into brokers.

Do you have any advice for me here? I'll go ahead and check out the stockmarketmentor site. Is their forum recommended?

Also was wondering what you classify your style as? You make trades, you aren't a buy and hold, but you aren't a daytrader right? What do you call those guys that trade forex and sp minis, and is what they do very different from your type of trades?


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Offlineben_dover0802
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Re: Stock Update for July 21, 2011 - PAL, UEC, CSX, CALM, SJM [Re: ef2] * 1
    #14810484 - 07/22/11 07:13 PM (12 years, 6 months ago)

Woo, today was probably my most profitable day so far. 


I own Mcdonalds (MCD), which gave great earnings this morning and was the best performer in the Dow.  If you look at the daily chart you see daily highs were sold into, but the earnings news itself was held, which as far as I know is a bullish sign for mickey dee's, I expect some more upside or at least sideways churning with an upside bias as MCD was still being bought the majority of the day. However, if I am wrong, I can tell quickly and easily if the price goes below today's low of $88.44, if it does, its right to sell!




PAL was my best performer today (I didn't set a stop for this one but it actually worked out much better this time).  There is nothing too exciting about the chart, but it reversed 3 days of losses in one day. It has about 5% left to test the 200 day, which I believe it should.


I also timed QTWW well again, bought yesterday on a bounce from the 50 day and sold today near the high, I just didn't want to push my luck and hold such a volatile stock over the weekend. Here is the chart, it looks like it could easily go either way: 





I bought one company today, O' Reilly (ORLY).  It has been doing good all year and is just starting to bounce off strong support at the 50dma today.  I would be pretty damn surprised if I didn't make any money off this trade, it was way extended above the averages from a squeeze about 2 weeks ago and has been in a downtrend since. ORLY found support for 3 days at the 50dma and is just starting to bounce. I think this is one you could buy on monday if it is showing strength, and set a stop around $61.40 and be good to go!


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for July 26, 2011 - PCX, MCP, MS, AAPL, AGNC, NLY [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #14827024 - 07/26/11 11:25 AM (12 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

ben_dover0802 said:

If you look at the daily chart you see daily highs were sold into, but the earnings news itself was held,
which as far as I know is a bullish sign for mickey dee's, I expect some more upside or at least sideways
churning with an upside bias as MCD was still being bought the majority of the day. However, if I am
wrong, I can tell quickly and easily if the price goes below today's low of $88.44, if it does, its right to sell!






I would not have taken that trade.  The stock gapped up outside of the upper bollinger band (which
contains better than 90% of all closing prices), and continued to sell off throughout the day.  While the
stock is undoubtedly in a long term uptrend, a strong fade on a gap outside of the bollinger bands is
typically a sell signal.  It didn't work that way for AAPL last week, but they have an extraordinary growth
rate and were already very cheap to begin with.  Also, because MCD pays a dividend, it is important to wait
for the best entries so that you're also getting a consistently higher dividend.  I think MCD is a good stock
to own, but I just wouldn't have bought it on the earnings "gap and crap", since that type of behavior
shows that market players were selling into strength, not buying.

On your other names...

ORLY does have well defined support, but make sure you adhere to that stop!  PAL is still in congestion,
and I will wait for the stock to test the 20 day moving average (at around $4.40) or break out above $5
before adding to my LEAPS.

I dodged a bullet twice this week, by selling my PCX prior to earnings since it was already up along its
upper bollinger band and the coal sector itself seemed to be under some pressure; and again by ditching
STEC in order to free up capital in my trading account in order to buy MCP.  Good thing, as both companies
got hammered (PCX on earnings, STEC on random news of an SEC investigation).  Interestingly, PCX has
fallen right to its 200 day moving average on the earnings news, which could produce a good buying
opportunity, though you should probably wait until tomorrow to open a position so you can use today's low
as your definition of support.


  • Quote:

    Last Thursday, geokills said:

       




    Molycorp is exploding today on good news from General Electric's Lighting division, which relies heavily on
    rare earth minerals, stating that "further price increases seem highly likely." GE also suggests stockpiling
    by dealers due to soaring prices is making a bad situation worse.

       


    The stock is up over 7% today on heavy volume, which should serve to confirm the breakout above the
    prior down trending channel (resistance becomes support at the 50 day).  I own calls and stock on MCP,
    and am maintaining a stop on my stock position below today's intraday low.  If and when MCP tests the
    prior resistance level at $66 - $67, I will implement a covered call strategy by selling August $80 calls
    against my long stock position.  This will allow me to take in the premium from the sale of the calls, and so
    long as MCP is below $80 by August 20th, I will get to keep all of that premium.  If MCP is at or above $80
    by August 20th, my long stock position will be called away from me, but I still get to keep the premium, as
    well as the profits from my long stock position up to the $80 per share limit imposed by the covered calls.


  • Financials are kind of perking up here as well, and I've taken a small long stock position in Morgan Stanley
    (MS) since it has pulled back a bit from its big move on earnings last Thursday, and I can keep a stop with
    a 3% loss risk.  The stock is still in a downtrend no doubt, but it looks like it's trying to turn the corner here.


  • Apple (AAPL) is setting all time highs again.  I added to my position this morning, because it just doesn't
    look like the stock wants to pull back very much, especially as shares have broken through the
    psychologically significant $400 level.  Put plainly, the company is very cheap based on its growth rate,
    they only opened four new Apple stores this past quarter and are still blowing away earnings and growing
    faster than anyone expected.  If you look at a weekly chart, you will see a longer term volatility expansion
    to the upside just getting underway.  I'm not so interested in trading AAPL anymore, this will be a long
    term position in my retirement portfolio.


  • Lastly, the mortgage REITS have been getting hammered on issues stemming from the debt ceiling and a
    perception that interest rates may be soon rising.  I am not selling these guys, and will actually be looking
    to buy more AGNC on weakness (19% dividend).  I'd buy more NLY as well (14% dividend), but I already
    own enough of that.  Just a heads up to those who may not have any high yielding dividend payers in their
    portfolio, these are great stocks for the long haul.  Best not to trade these, just buy them on the weakness
    and forget about 'em.



Positions:

    71% Long Stock: MCP, KMP, NLY, PSEC, AAPL, PCX, AGNC, MS, IBM
    16% Cash
    8% Long Unsecured Debt @ 12% APY via LendingClub.com
    5% Long Call Options: MCP Aug $55, PAL Jan 2013 $2, BAC Jan 2013 $10, DANG Jan 2103 $15


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InvisibleDieCommie

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Re: Stock Update for July 26, 2011 - PCX, MCP, MS, AAPL, AGNC, NLY [Re: geokills]
    #14827081 - 07/26/11 11:37 AM (12 years, 6 months ago)

I bought some more AGNC yesterday, and also own quite a bit of NLY.

Could you opine on what you perceive to be the difference between the two?  One has a higher return, one has been around longer.  Otherwise they seem pretty similar to me.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for July 26, 2011 - PCX, MCP, MS, AAPL, AGNC, NLY [Re: DieCommie]
    #14827391 - 07/26/11 12:50 PM (12 years, 6 months ago)

For practical intent and purpose, the difference between AGNC and NLY is primarily their respective management teams.  They are both involved in the same business and therefore you should not expect that by owning both, you are achieving diversification.  However, it is still a good idea to own both, just in case there is an anomalous event that affects one of the companies.  I also own PSEC (a private equity company) and KMP (a natural gas pipeline operator, bought when the yield was 10%), in efforts to diversify my high yield portfolio.  CPL is another one you might consider.


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InvisibleDieCommie

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Re: Stock Update for July 26, 2011 - PCX, MCP, MS, AAPL, AGNC, NLY [Re: geokills]
    #14827502 - 07/26/11 01:15 PM (12 years, 6 months ago)

I also bought VNQ when I first purchased REITs.  Originally, it was lion share of what I bought.  But now, it is dwarfed by AGNC and NLY.  Any thoughts on VNQ or similar REIT ETFs?

Thx for the response, I really do enjoy reading and keeping up with this thread.


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Offlineben_dover0802
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Re: Stock Update for July 26, 2011 - PCX, MCP, MS, AAPL, AGNC, NLY [Re: geokills]
    #14828473 - 07/26/11 04:42 PM (12 years, 6 months ago)

Sorry I forgot to include that I bought Mcdonalds about a month ago, so really I was looking for the best exit point. I agree it wouldn't be a good entry point.

Still no Apple in my portfolio, I keep saying to myself to wait for a pullback, but it doesn't look like that is happening. I just need to force myself to get some kind of position because I keep watching it nearly climb every day for a while now!

I really want this whole debt ceiling to be resolved, I feel like we can't get a respectable green day until it is, and time is definitely ticking until we stock market people get pwned if this political mumbo jumbo continues.


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OfflineBambi
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Re: Stock Update for July 26, 2011 - PCX, MCP, MS, AAPL, AGNC, NLY [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #14828862 - 07/26/11 05:50 PM (12 years, 6 months ago)

Yea, this whole dept thing is really making me nervous because a week or so ago there was rumor concerning good news with the debt ceiling, so the market went up, but then it was revealed to be false and the market went down. I really just do not feel comfortable after seeing how vulnerable the market is to news on the matter. But i dont suppose there is anything i can really do unless i decide to pull out, but if they resolve it i'd kick my ass knowing the market will climb.

In other news, my stocks consist of 60% Armour Residential Reit (ARR), 20% First Niagara Financial Group (FNFG), 10% Life Holdings (LPHI), and 10% Veolia Environment (VE).
Unfortunately VE is the only one i have that has gone up, but it has gone up a decent amount since i bought. So far im down about 2% overall, nothing terrible especially with this market.
I feel really good about VE, its a good company that deals with environmentally friendly water treatments, transportation, among other things.
I thought ARR would be much more stable that is has shown its self to be, but being a reit id imagine that it will recover and stay decently constant.

Keep these posts coming! i check this thread every day. its my favorite thread on the shroomery!


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for July 26, 2011 - PCX, MCP, MS, AAPL, AGNC, NLY [Re: DieCommie]
    #14833648 - 07/27/11 03:05 PM (12 years, 6 months ago)

I'm not appraised of VNQ, and not really in the mood to do any research after this bloodbath of a day. :bored:

Closed out several positions this morning (though I wish I had closed more!).  Pretty amazing that NFLX is green on the day, took a starter there; but otherwise, as bendover and Bambi were mentioning, the headline risk is tremendous and the market is beginning to seriously discount a reduction in the US credit rating.  I can't in good conscience sell anything right here where the market closed, but it was a disgusting day no doubt about it and I'm surely not in any hurry to go long until some of this political headline risk is taken off of the table.  If there can be found a silver lining in any of this, it's that the selloff this week does set us up for a relief rally once the debt issue is resolved.

On my shopping list for when the smoke clears: AAPL, IBM, AMZN, NFLX, GLD, USU, PAL, MCP, LIT.

In the meanwhile, I am likely not to do much for the rest of the week as I'll be driving to Oregon (from southern California) starting Friday, and spending the next week away with family and friends.  I will be keeping somewhat of an eye on the markets, for any extreme selling that may present an irresistible buying opportunity, but I won't be holding my breath.

Man, the way my high yield portfolio went down today was a real bummer.  Those are usually fairly immune from aggregate market selling, but they were just getting taken out to the woodshed with the rest of the market today.  NLY and AGNC are approaching yearly lows, PSEC is already there.  It's really discouraging action, as I don't like to trade these names, but if PSEC breaks just a dime or two lower, I will probably close the position out of prudence, since it is literally sitting just $0.02 above its low for the year and I'm not looking to ride this one down.

Rough market out there, don't try to be a hero!


Positions...

    CASH
    Long Stock: KMP, NLY, PSEC, AAPL, AGNC, IBM, NFLX
    Call Options: (LEAPS only): DANG 2013 $15, BAC 2013 $10, PAL 2013 $2


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OfflineBambi
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Re: Stock Update for July 26, 2011 - PCX, MCP, MS, AAPL, AGNC, NLY [Re: geokills]
    #14835371 - 07/27/11 08:53 PM (12 years, 6 months ago)

I'm almost glad that i just entered the market at this point in time. its really gonna show me that things are not safe and that i shouldnt ever get over confident. that and i didnt put too much money it. although watching the market get so low makes me wanna buy while its all down, but i know i shouldnt at least not yet.

I hope you enjoy your time with your family. im actually going to the dominican republic with my mom friday for a week. i just hope the market doesnt do anything tooooo crazy while im gone


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"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben


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OfflineCosmicLion
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Re: Stock Update for July 21, 2011 - PAL, UEC, CSX, CALM, SJM [Re: geokills]
    #14864951 - 08/02/11 11:19 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Hey Geo!

I wanted to ask you something.

What do you think about doing rigid technical analysis on say the S&P500 index...

Whenever the S&P is in an uptrend you only go long on any stocks.

Whenever the S&P is in a downtrend you only go short on stocks.

What do you think about this? What are your thoughts on being Long and/or Short during market swings? What have you noticed???

Thanks for any input!!

:heart: :thumbup: :peace:


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Re: Stock Update for July 21, 2011 - PAL, UEC, CSX, CALM, SJM [Re: CosmicLion]
    #14865994 - 08/03/11 06:18 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

I bought a book on technical analysis about a year ago.  I read it, set up a practice account, and tried my hand at trading on tech analysis.  It didn't work out for me.  It was just too confusing.  There were too many times that the market didn't follow the rules that were laid out in the book.  There were too many exceptions to rules on interpreting a candlestick chart. 

You may be able to make money with in-depth study of tech analysis, but you also need to be doing research every day.  I just decided it was way too time consuming and went with a buy and hold, long-term, asset-class based investing approach using index funds.  I check my investments once a month and check the percentages of total worth to decide where new investment money needs to go.

It's been giving me good returns, is relatively simple, and allows me to sleep at night.


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No knowledge can be certain, if it is not based
upon mathematics or upon some other knowledge
which is itself based upon the mathematical
sciences.
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Speak well of your enemies.  After all, you made them.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for August 3, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: CosmicLion]
    #14867258 - 08/03/11 01:32 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Hi CosmicLion.  I always use the S&P 500 index as a barometer to color my overall market bias, but I wouldn't be so rigid as to ONLY be long when the S&P is in an uptrend, or ONLY be short when it is in a downtrend. I will use the major market trend to influence my decisions to be either aggressively long, cautiously long, holding high levels of cash, or short.  Fact of the matter is, I'll probably never find myself aggressively or only short, because if you look at any longer term time frame, the overall market bias has always been consistently higher.  This may change, but it behoves investors to expect the expected rather than expecting the unexpected.  Thus, I prefer only to short stocks selectively for limited timeframes and will always keep my short positions on a tight leash with actively managed stop loss orders.  In other words, I don't maintain any core short positions, whereas I will hold onto core long positions even in the midst of market weakness.

As appropriate commentary for where we find ourselves today, I like to become more aggressive during deep oversold conditions, by waiting for the first sign of a reversal to initiate a trade with a small position, and then add to that trade quickly as soon as I receive some confirmation that the anticipated reversal is in fact taking place.  As an example, with the markets down now for 7 or 8 days in a row, and only some 20% of listed stocks above their 40 day moving average (as of today's lows), we are very oversold and ripe for a snap back rally.  Historically, the % of stocks below their 40 day moving average has indicated impending bounces when it spikes down to extremely low levels (typically somewhere in the range of 10 - 20%).  Though economic data remains bleak and the market is technically damaged and entering a new downtrend, the clown show in Washington should be taking a break from the front page, which will help minimize the headline risk that was stirring up some panic in the market.  This has been the longest streak of down days since the 2008 crash, and I think we are setting up for a snap back right now; especially if the S&P closes above the psychologically and technically significant 1250 level.

Thus, even though I am on vacation and wasn't planning on trading much this week, this is an excellent opportunity to enter new positions with very well defined risk, so I have been buying EXPE, NFLX and SPY Aug $124 calls this morning in efforts to take advantage of what I figure will probably be an impending bounce.  I will emphasize the short term nature of the expectation of a bounce.  If we do get one, I don't expect that it will carry us to new highs, but since a lot of people who own stock (potential sellers) have already sold at this point, we now have a group of potential buyers on the sidelines that might pile in if the market begins to firm up.

If this happens, I will enjoy the trading positions I have taken today (and will add to them on confirmation of the reversal).  I will manage my risk by maintaining stop losses and then begin to look to short on the first signs that the bounce is failing (when my stop losses are getting filled).  Short candidates will include stocks that are either very extended and on the precipice of a technical breakdown (i.e. check out the weekly chart of LULU), or stocks that are clearly broken and should resume their downtrend if the overall market strength fails (i.e. TEX).

The point in waiting for the first signs of a reversal to initiate a trade, rather than waiting for the trend to fully assert itself before just shorting weakness or buying strength, is in efforts to provide a well defined "I'm wrong" level (stop loss level) that won't kill me if I am indeed proven wrong.  For example, if I'm wrong about the S&P bouncing off of this morning's lows, I will be taken out of my trading positions automatically, because I have set stop loss orders at today's intraday lows on all the trading positions I've implemented.  In this way, I am involved with the market at a good low level in case the market is reversing, but won't lose much if I'm wrong, since I've initiated the trade close to a support level / assumed reversal point, and have kept the initial position relatively small with a tight stop.  This helps breed confidence if I'm proven right in the subsequent trading days, as if the market opens strong tomorrow, I can add to these new positions without feeling like I'm chasing, since my positions from today will already be profitable.  I then raise my stop levels in accordance with the performance of the market, and let the market take me out whenever appropriate.  When that happens, I circle back to the intermediate term trend (which happens to be down) and thus begin to open short positions on those names I mentioned earlier (LULU, TEX and even the SPY).

As for actionable trading advice for right here, right now; the long "shadow" on today's price action (also known as a Dragonfly Doji), is a good indication that the sellers are slowing down and buyers are becomming more aggressive, at least for the near term.  Coupled with the fact that we have been down for so many days in a row, a close above the important 1250 level should have traders positioning themselves on the long side today for a short term bounce, but maintain trailing stops on all trading positions because the intermediate term landscape is still trending down and we will likely see this bounce fail as we move into the "I want my money back" region of resistance created by those traders who have been buying all the way down (dollar cost averaging), and are now freaked out from being so wrong that they just want to be able to sell their positions at break even to get their money back. Don't be those guys.  :wink:

Good luck! :sun:


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for August 3, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
    #14871423 - 08/04/11 09:43 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Ouch!  Absolutely hideous action seeing us break through yesterday's lows.  Looks like yesterday's intraday bounce was simply a virtue of short sellers covering their positions.  My trading positions were stopped out for losses, and larger losses than I'd planned for, since the market gapped down below several of my stop levels at the open instead of trickling down in an orderly fashion.  It is amazing the relentless ferocity of this decline.  I got sucked in yesterday, and even in retrospect, I cannot imagine having executed my strategy any differently.  Unfortunately, the market doesn't care about my strategy and what may have worked in most markets, is not working now.

There isn't any other way to say it, this is an extremely difficult environment.  So much economic and headline risk, market players taking shorter and shorter time frames (myself included) in efforts to skirt around the volatility but unfortunately, there is no easy tactic to winning in the market, let alone a market as volatile and uncertain as this one.

I'm heading out to hike around Crater Lake in Oregon today while I lick my wounds.  Got knicked, but I will live to trade another day.  Be careful out there.  The market will improve at some point, but I can't tell you when.


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InvisibleDieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
Re: Stock Update for August 3, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: geokills]
    #14871979 - 08/04/11 12:10 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
I'm heading out to hike around Crater Lake in Oregon today while I lick my wounds.





That place is beautiful, enjoy.  Here is a picture I took,



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Offlinepothead_bob
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Re: Stock Update for August 3, 2011 - A Tradeable Low? [Re: DieCommie]
    #14875859 - 08/05/11 08:03 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Wow, that picture looks surreal... like it's been photoshopped.  Enjoy indeed.

So are we heading into a double dip?  Couldn't believe it when I heard on the radio yesterday that the Dow lost nearly 5%.  My investments, of course, got hammered.


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No knowledge can be certain, if it is not based
upon mathematics or upon some other knowledge
which is itself based upon the mathematical
sciences.
  -Leonardo da Vinci (1425-1519)

Speak well of your enemies.  After all, you made them.


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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for July 21, 2011 - PAL, UEC, CSX, CALM, SJM [Re: pothead_bob]
    #14880433 - 08/06/11 09:36 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

pothead_bob said:
I bought a book on technical analysis about a year ago.  I read it, set up a practice account, and tried my hand at trading on tech analysis.  It didn't work out for me.  It was just too confusing.  There were too many times that the market didn't follow the rules that were laid out in the book.  There were too many exceptions to rules on interpreting a candlestick chart. 

You may be able to make money with in-depth study of tech analysis, but you also need to be doing research every day.  I just decided it was way too time consuming and went with a buy and hold, long-term, asset-class based investing approach using index funds.  I check my investments once a month and check the percentages of total worth to decide where new investment money needs to go.

It's been giving me good returns, is relatively simple, and allows me to sleep at night.




What book? Technical analysis is a great tool for trading the markets, but you need to pay attention to market reactions/tendencies to events/reports and get a good grip on timing the markets as well. Paying attention to other markets that are leading indicators for risk appetite, is also extremely key. Markets that actually have a clue on economic developments, unlike U.S. equities. The world's dumbest markets.


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for July 21, 2011 - PAL, UEC, CSX, CALM, SJM [Re: Hotnuts]
    #14880561 - 08/06/11 10:30 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Does anyone think the downgrade of usa credit rating will negatively impact the market? I think it would add to the feeling of gloom and doom. Investors were clearly not satisfied with the political games which got us past default but did little to stop the upward march of debt. The cuts they took were out of projected spending which was in deficit. So the deficit is less than if they got all the things on their wish lists but it still goes up.

It's too bad about stop losses not protecting you when it drops so fast. I have had the reverse and put in an order to sell at market one time and it sold at a higher price. But usually it seems to go the other way. Hopefully everyone has limited their exposure now.

I've been out of the market for some time, my gold is all physical, so i didn't lose anything but i missed out on gains in the last year. I'm thinking to watch the action and get in when there is a chance for a rebound. You never can tell for sure but usually that time is when everyone thinks it will drop forever. Emotion has hammered the value of a lot of good stocks. I wouldnt do it right away, i expect another drop monday and next week is uncertain. But you could do worse than to get in after another big drop. Carefully selecting your targets of course.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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