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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for April 4, 2011 - General Remarks [Re: ben_dover0802]
#14550233 - 06/02/11 10:25 AM (12 years, 7 months ago) |
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It's all good ben_dover! I like to read about what other market participants are doing/thinking, so please don't hesitate to post about your positions in here. For my part, I haven't been trading for the last week. The market has been just too choppy and I didn't want to chase the strength I was seeing. Looks like that was for the better, given what happened yesterday and so far today. In fact, I did dip my toe into some SPY June $132 put options this morning, which are working though I am close to getting stopped out for a ~15% profit if SPY moves above $131.51.
I'm traveling all next week so I don't expect I will be doing much with my portfolio until later on in the month. In the meanwhile, all I'm holding is a 2013 call option on DANG, and some high yield positions (PSEC, KMP, NLY, CTL) and a very small placeholder in CMG. I sure would like to find an entry for NFLX at some point as well, but since I'm going to be on the road and this market is just tying itself in knots, I'd rather not stress about having too much exposure while I'm away. Frankly, it's really nice to be taking a break!
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ZippoZ
Knomadic


Registered: 06/17/03
Posts: 13,227
Loc: Pongyang, North Korea
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Re: Stock Update for April 4, 2011 - General Remarks [Re: geokills]
#14550894 - 06/02/11 01:15 PM (12 years, 7 months ago) |
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im stressed over the markets current conditions.... should there be a precipice to a double dip in the economy, such as a massive drop in the Dow, or several consecutive hundred plus point drops over a few weeks time, i may be in trouble.
-------------------- PEACE
zippoz "in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption" "People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it."
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DieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
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Re: Stock Update for April 4, 2011 - General Remarks [Re: geokills]
#14550905 - 06/02/11 01:19 PM (12 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: LendingClub has been great, it looks like one of my loans may default, but it was a very tiny investment ($25) since I knew it was a high risk borrower to begin with (21% interest rate!). You just need to be careful in the loans you select to fund. 80% of the loans I fund are from borrowers in the A/B category, with some C's thrown in just for kicks. I also make sure when browsing for new notes, that the borrowers are Verified & Approved, and have had 60+ months since any delinquency. I also read through their Q&A to make sure they are responsive and seem to have a good plan. All in all, no complaints. It is unsecured debt, so it is risky, but you can mitigate your risk through your own careful selection of borrowers.
I have no idea about the $70K minimum income limit you're talking about.
They wont even let me invest in my state. Bunch of commie bastards...
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ben_dover0802
shroom addict


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Re: Stock Update for April 4, 2011 - General Remarks [Re: DieCommie]
#14607777 - 06/13/11 06:04 PM (12 years, 7 months ago) |
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I have been pretty much selling lately, many of my stops have been hit. Over 50% in cash and most likely going to increase my cash position if the market doesn't show much improvement.
I have been buying some Sprint stock. About 5.32 is my cost average. I bought near support, looking for a continuation of the uptrend.
Also took a small position in QTWW, a small volatile alternative energy company. Looking for a bounce at the 50dma for a quick sale.
Anybody shorting right now? I have been thinking about buying some short etf but looking for a oversold bounce first.
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LZip
Stranger

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Re: Stock Update for April 4, 2011 - General Remarks [Re: ben_dover0802]
#14611212 - 06/14/11 10:16 AM (12 years, 7 months ago) |
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looking to get into Pandora. I seen on stocktwits that the IPO is today..but havent seen anything yet. Is there a specific time it is going to start trading or what? This is my first time trying to get a stock on its IPO
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geokills
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Stock Update for June 17, 2011 - General Remarks [Re: LZip]
#14628217 - 06/17/11 01:34 PM (12 years, 7 months ago) |
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Don't buy Pandora (P). It's a falling knife, just like LinkedIn (LNKD) - the last internet IPO that came out. These companies are way overvalued. Frankly, I LOVE Pandora, but I don't see how they are going to turn a major profit anytime soon and thus, their stock is not worth much more than a trade (and for now, that trade is to the downside). Also remember, if you are buying on the open market, you aren't really getting "in on the IPO". The IPO is priced before the market begins trading the stock publicly, and you typically have to be a pretty good client at one of the big money firms that is writing the deal in order to get in on the actual IPO. For example, people who did get in on the Pandora IPO paid $16 a share. The day Pandora began trading publicly, the stock rapidly jumped to $26 and promptly started to tank. This is because all those folks who only had to pay $16 a share would be thrilled to dump their position to retail investors (you and I would be considered retail investors) who attempt to jump on the bandwagon when the stock first opens for public trade. The guys who really did get in on the IPO and liquidated the next day, saw a minimum of an 8% overnight gain and a maximum of 62% overnight! Meanwhile, any retail investors that bought that first day are losing their shirt.
I've been sitting on my hands for weeks and loving every minute of it. The market is ugly, choppy and frustrating. This is not an easy market for investors to make money in. Nimble traders, maybe... but if you're new to this game, you will probably find yourself chewed up pretty bad in a market like this. I will disclose that I did dip my toe in the water with a tranche of Apple (AAPL) stock this afternoon at $320. However, if AAPL breaks below $318 (roughly corresponding to yesterday's intraday low), I will happily ditch the position for a very small loss and go back to my cave, laying in wait for only the lowest risk opportunities I can find.
The market is oversold, no doubt. The S&P is also feebly bouncing at its 200 day moving average, which could set us up for a rally. But remember this, there are SO MANY PISSED OFF INVESTORS/TRADERS that bought at higher levels as this train got derailed. That means that there is A LOT of overhead resistance to chew through as the "I want my money back" crowd will liquidate losing positions into any strength (which is exactly what happened on Wednesday).
In conclusion, play it very close to the vest or don't play at all. Contrary to major money managers, we have the luxury of doing nothing. Put plainly, if you aren't making money in this market, you shouldn't be trying to trade it. This is not a bullish market. I repeat, this is not a bullish market. Counter-trend oversold bounces will occur, but they will probably be short lived as economic data remains bleak, the summer season is typically slow for the market and there is just heaps upon heaps of overhead resistance. THERE IS NO HURRY TO GET LONG. If you see something close to support and want to take a shot (like AAPL here at $320, or the S&P at its 200 day), go ahead and take the trade. But you better be using stops, and adhere to that discipline... because this market could easily head a lot lower and take your hard earned money with it!
Longer term investors may want to consider nibbling on Kinder Morgan (KMP), having recently taken a blow by deciding to issue new shares. The company's stock spiked down very sharply today but has retraced the move and is setting new intraday highs as I type. It's still just barely below the 200 day moving average, but this company has been a consistent performer and dividend payer. If buy and hold for cash flow is your strategy, this one looks to be offering a reasonable entry (just don't go nuts, as aggregate market weakness will still pressure a stock like this).
And remember, CASH is a position too, and it's been a pretty darn good one over the past several weeks!
Rule #1 of successful investing: Don't lose your dough.
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geokills
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Stock Update for July 12, 2011 - NLY [Re: geokills]
#14755986 - 07/12/11 09:41 AM (12 years, 6 months ago) |
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Wow, almost a month with no updates - but a great month it's been! Really nice to take a break from the market every now and again. I unknowingly build up bias and emotional baggage when trading too much, and it's important to take breaks every now and again to refresh the soul and come back with a clear head. That said, there isn't too much to be doing today. You could try going long the S&P with a stop just under the 50 day moving average (today's intraday low), but a lot of the underlying stocks I'm watching (AAPL, NFLX, AXP, CRM, CMG, LULU, FDX) look like they could easily continue to fall back some more, which would likely setup the S&P for a test of 1300 at best, and reasonably even 1275. Thus, I'm still not doing much.
However, I do want to point out that Annaly Capital Management (NLY), a mortgage REIT, announced another secondary offering for shares priced at $17.70. The stock is currently trading at around $18 with a better than 14% annual yield. Since these secondary offerings have time and time again proven to be good entry points for this cash flow monster, I am adding to my position; which is all I am expecting to do today.
Positions (largest to smallest):
52% Cashola 39% Long Stock: KMP, NLY, PSEC, CTL, AGNC (all high dividend yielders) 8% Long Unsecured Peer-to-Peer Debt via LendingClub.com @ 12% APY < 1% Long DANG Jan 2013 $15 Call Option
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geokills
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Short Term Trade Ideas: XOP & ZAGG [Re: geokills]
#14760429 - 07/13/11 12:31 AM (12 years, 6 months ago) |
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While I'm not too excited in getting very long right now, these two trades look ripe for the short term trader:
- XOP - Oil & Gas Exploration ETF
This has been in a well defined downtrending channel for several months. It broke out earlier this month, above the 50 day moving average and today came back to test the top of the prior trading range (the ol' saying is: prior resistance becomes current support). In a cool concurrence of events, this also happens to roughly coincide with the 50 and 20 day moving averages. You can see on the chart below that I have a couple of alerts set. Ideally, the stock will move higher, alerting me to take the trade and keep a stop at the lower alert. This allows me to risk very little (2%), which in turns means I can take a pretty large position without worrying about losing too much if I'm wrong, since there is very well defined support and very close!

- ZAGG - Containers & Packaging Company
This stock has been a monster, but has recently been pulling back. If it can pop out of the downtrending channel on convincing (i.e. high) volume, this would be another trade worth taking, with a stop either below $12.40 (Monday's low) or if you want to play it even closer to the vest, below the 20 day moving average which roughly corresponds with today's close at $13.16.

These trades won't work if the overall market fails, but are great setups if the market does decide to bounce. This is especially true because these are stocks that were higher today, on an otherwise down day. Relative strength is an important tell.
Big ups to the crew at StockMarketMentor.com for making me aware of the above setups. Can't give enough credit to Dan and the SMM community for teaching me to become a better investor! 
If any investors out there want to learn more about day to day stock analysis, do yourself a favor and check out the free daily videos on StockMarketMentor, they also have a free 30 day trial on the full product.
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DieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
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Re: Stock Update for July 12, 2011 - NLY [Re: geokills]
#14762545 - 07/13/11 01:21 PM (12 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: However, I do want to point out that Annaly Capital Management (NLY), a mortgage REIT, announced another secondary offering for shares priced at $17.70. The stock is currently trading at around $18 with a better than 14% annual yield. Since these secondary offerings have time and time again proven to be good entry points for this cash flow monster, I am adding to my position; which is all I am expecting to do today.
Who gets to buy it for $17.70?
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for July 12, 2011 - NLY [Re: DieCommie]
#14763215 - 07/13/11 03:20 PM (12 years, 6 months ago) |
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In order to buy a stock at the secondary offer price (or an IPO at its initial public offering price), you must have some sort of relationship with the major firms that are writing the deal on behalf of the company. In the case of NLY, Credit Suisse Securities acted as the lead book-running manager for the offering, and BofA Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, UBS Investment Bank and RCap Securities acted as joint book-running managers. Thus, if you had done previous investment related transactions with any of those banks, you may have been able to snag some shares at the offer price by indicating your interest ahead of time.
Generally speaking, unless you have a prior relationship with the bank, you won't be able to just swing by and tell them you want in on a hot new issue. Frankly, you have to be pretty well capitalized in order to have a relationship with the big boys that will carry enough sway to get you in on the very best deals (hence the ol' saying: the rich get richer), though even if you only do small business with 'em, you can sometimes get lucky.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for July 12, 2011 - NLY [Re: geokills]
#14766644 - 07/14/11 08:02 AM (12 years, 6 months ago) |
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Despite my bias of a few days ago, the market has been holding it's 50 day moving average and there are a lot of attractive, low risk setups with well defined support that makes for easy placement of a stop loss. I bought a heap of XOP and PAL yesterday. This morning I have added SU, KSU and UEC to my long portfolio (all with tight stops in the event of a reversal). Smoke 'em if you got 'em!
Edit: Bit of a fakeout rally this morning. Still holding the 50 day, but the selling pressure is on and a few stops have been hit.
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Edited by geokills (07/14/11 10:06 AM)
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geokills
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Stock Update for July 15, 2011 - XME & XOP [Re: geokills]
#14772156 - 07/15/11 11:33 AM (12 years, 6 months ago) |
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Pretty tenuous market, hanging in right at support. PAL and XOP have been working really nicely. The metals and miners in particular are looking poised for further upside as the Metal & Mining ETF (XME) is carving out a strong base right here at its 20 & 50 day moving averages, which would indicate an upside reversal from its three month downtrend that started in April.
Thus, I have continued to accumulate exposure in PAL (a Canadian palladium & silver mining company) and UEC (uranium company) over the past few days, both of which are looking pretty sexy. My position in XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration & Production) has also worked well, but I wouldn't want to add to it right here, as it is a major ETF that's up over 5% on the day (typically, major ETF's don't experience such large moves and I would expect this one to rest a bit next week). The trade in ZAGG that I highlighted earlier in the week has also been doing very well, but I was shaken out early on Wednesday morning and am not interested in taking the trade at this level since it is now running into the upper bollinger band, has been up strong for four days in a row and upside volume has been somewhat low over the past couple of days.
Going into next week, it sure looks like Metals & Miners, as well as Oil & Gas Exploration & Production companies are the sectors you want to focus on. It will be important to watch 1307 on the S&P for support. If that level breaks down, a considerably more cautious stance is warranted as a test of 1300 seems inevitable and 1280 likely. So long as 1307 holds however, I am inclined to look for long side opportunities as it's always best to buy close to support. You can buy larger positions with tight stops so that if you're wrong, you won't lose much, and if you're right, you knock it out of the park.
For a more conservative approach, I also added to my position in AGNC for my retirement portfolio. This REIT yields over 19% and is offering a low risk entry, especially if you keep a stop below $29 (though for what it's worth, I mostly use alerts and rarely keep stops on high yielders like this, as I'd hate to get shaken out on a weird opening print, or when the stock takes a dive after paying out a dividend or announcing a secondary share offering).
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Abuse
end of the line


Registered: 08/08/08
Posts: 6,039
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Re: Stock Update for July 15, 2011 - XME & XOP [Re: geokills]
#14774502 - 07/15/11 07:29 PM (12 years, 6 months ago) |
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I'm starting to keep my eye on them, there's money to be made out there, that's for sure
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for July 15, 2011 - XME & XOP [Re: Abuse]
#14778498 - 07/16/11 05:57 PM (12 years, 6 months ago) |
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There are a lot of good setups out there. Gold seems destined to continue its rise. Silver is perking up after selling off and consolidating for the past few months. Metals and the Oil sector are looking particularly encouraging from a trading perspective (honestly, there isn't much I want to hold long term in this market, with the exception of high dividend stocks and a tranche of gold).
Check out this juicy setup in the XME (metals & mining ETF):

After a series of lower lows and lower highs, the sector looks like it's about to start printing higher highs.
- Apple (AAPL) earnings after the bell on Tuesday should be interesting to watch. The stock has been
in a fairly tight trading range for months, so I would expect that earnings will catalyze a strong move one way or the other.
- I am closely watching SLV (the silver ETF), which has just begun a volatility expansion on the daily
chart. On a move above $38.37, or a retracement to find support at $35, I'm a buyer.

This weekly chart shows the consolidation period particularly well, and the way that upside momentum is beginning to pick up (look at the last week's volume bar - it is twice that of the prior week).

- I'll also be watching BTU for a breakout above $60, as its 20/50/200 day moving averages are all
converging and the stock looks poised to begin an upside reversal above these averages.

Look familiar? There are a lot of nice setups out there with opportunities to clearly define your stop level.
- CSX may be worth watching, as transports look to be putting in a base and this railroad operator will be
reporting earnings next week. If the stock retakes its 50 day moving average, I would expect to take a position.
Here's how I am currently positioned moving into next week:
47% Long Stock (KMP, NLY, PSEC, UEC, AGNC, PAL) 40% Cash 8% Long 12% APY Unsecured Debt via LendingClub.com 5% Long Call Options (GLD Aug $145, XOP Sep $58, PAL Jan 2013 $2, DANG Jan 2013 $15)
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Edited by geokills (07/17/11 12:19 AM)
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ben_dover0802
shroom addict


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Re: Stock Update for July 15, 2011 - XME & XOP [Re: geokills]
#14781949 - 07/17/11 02:02 PM (12 years, 6 months ago) |
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Good stuff Geokills, I see some good opportunities too. I actually saw your post a couple years ago or so about stock market mentor and I became a member. Definitely worth the monthly membership, I would also recommend it, even if only for a few months to get a feel for thinking like Dan does.
My trading has really improved and have been doing much better, these past couple weeks have been good to me, especially that little alternative energy company, QTWW. I took my profits on friday but would be interested in reopening the position if a higher intraday low is present tomorrow, it is currently in volatility expansion mode.
I recently bought some Citrix (CTXS) as it is bouncing off support. Also I picked up some PAL on friday thanks to you, that chart does indeed look good.
Hopefully this debt ceiling gets resolved this week as I agree with Dan that we should be seeing some good upside if it does.
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geokills
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Stock Update for July 19, 2011 - PAL, UEC, XOP, GLD, AAPL, STEC, BAC, PCX [Re: ben_dover0802]
#14791845 - 07/19/11 11:09 AM (12 years, 6 months ago) |
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PAL is struggling a bit today, but as long as it stays above $4.42, I'm staying long. It would not be surprising to see it grind around a bit here before taking another stab at breaking through its 200 day moving average. UEC is in almost the exact same position, and I will maintain long exposure so long as that stock stays above $3.59. UEC also has about 17% of its shares outstanding sold short, which will produce more buying pressure as shorts run to cover, IF and WHEN the stock can break above its 200 day.
My position in XOP continues to work, as does GLD, though they both look a little bit tired and I would be hesitant to buy at this level. Gold does look like it could take a little breather here after being up for ten days in a row. I currently own August call options on GLD, but if GLD falls below $155.50, I'll be rolling out to a longer dated contract as not to get my ass handed to me on a near term pullback, as I still believe that the long term technical and fundamental thesis for owning gold is intact. [EDIT: Closed out call option position on intraday weakness, this one could settle back down to $150 - $152 for a nice re-entry]
An important market focus with earnings season getting underway: Goldman Sachs (GS) and Bank of America (BAC) reported earnings that were taken somewhat poorly, but both stocks are showing a bit of intraday support, which is not particularly surprising given the smack down they've experienced for what seems like forever. Given that BAC is trading at a new two year low, I took a very small piece of some January 2013 $10 call options. I don't really trust the banks, but if we do see any semblance of a recovery in the next year and a half, these options should benefit. Because they're so cheap at ~$1.50 per contract, it's not a big deal to sit on them for the next 550 days as I'm not tying up much capital and can still have some skin in the financial sector even as it's extremely out of favor for the time being. I'll also have plenty of room and time to add to the position if banks continue to slide.
Another important focus is Apple (AAPL) reporting earnings today after the close. The stock has run up tremendously over the past month, but if you look at a weekly chart, you'll see that this is not atypical of AAPL shares, to base in a relatively tight range for a few months and then begin a new leg higher. The weekly chart shows a volatility expansion to the upside, so if AAPL does blow out their earnings, this could indeed be the catalyst that begins the next stage of this long term uptrend. On the other hand, earnings are a wild card and AAPL has over the past year typically sold off after earnings. Thus, I have taken what equates to 1/4 of a full position of long stock in AAPL, which I will add to if AAPL sells off, and if AAPL pops on earnings, at least I have some skin in the game.
With relation to technology, the XLK and QQQ (technology ETF's) are bouncing quite convincingly off of their 50 day moving averages. This is constructive, and while I would be cautious due to earnings season, I am also taking a little bit of stock in STEC, a solid state data storage manufacturer. The stock looks poised to break out above its 200 day moving average, and I want to be there. This trade looks even more attractive when one considers that 25% of the outstanding shares are being sold short... which, when considering the average daily trading volume on the stock, will take almost 8 days to cover. This type of potential short covering (aka "short squeeze") can be a major upside catalyst to a stock at a key reversal level. Below $17 however, and I will definitely not be involved in this stock any longer.
Lastly, Patriot Coal (PCX) is performing very well after re-taking its 50 day moving average last month. This thing has been grinding around for quite a while, but as the coal sector in general appears to be catching a bid, PCX seems like a good place to be. I have a small position with a stop below $23.49. If that stop is violated, I would be watching for a successful re-test of the $21.50 - $22 level before getting involved again.
In summary, I've taken on quite a bit of risk, but since I've been doing it incrementally over the past week, almost all of the positions are already profitable. Thus, I can maintain stop levels that will take me out if the market reverses, but won't lose me a lot of money. This is exactly the position I like to find myself in... since I am involved at a key support level, but have been disciplined about my involvement such that I can be stopped out of positions on a violation of support without any major losses. If you want to make money, you have to take on risk. You just better be smart about it!
Positions (largest to smallest):
59% Long Stock: KMP, NLY, PSEC, UEC, AGNC, PCX, PAL, AAPL, STEC 27% Cash 6% Call Options: XOP Sep $58, PAL Jan 2013 $2, BAC Jan 2013 $10, DANG Jan 2013 $15 8% Long Unsecured Debt @ 12% APY via LendingClub.com
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Edited by geokills (07/19/11 12:28 PM)
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for July 19, 2011 - PAL, UEC, XOP, GLD, AAPL, STEC, BAC, PCX [Re: geokills] 1
#14793265 - 07/19/11 04:05 PM (12 years, 6 months ago) |
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Well, Apple (AAPL) and VMWare (VMW) blew their earnings reports out of the water. AAPL is trading up over $400 a share, and ancillary plays like Cirrus Logic (CRUS), who make internal parts for Apple's i-products, are also trading up in sympathy. This should bode well for the aggregate market tomorrow, and I am happy to be fairly heavily invested; however, there were a couple of relatively high profile earnings misses today as well: namely CMG and RVBD.
Still happy to be out of my near term call options in GLD, as the positive focus on equities is likely to allow gold to come in a bit. Make no mistake, I view any palpable weakness in GLD as a buying opportunity, I'll be stalking strength at $150-$152 on the GLD.
I will be watching the following stocks for potential day trades during the first 15 minutes of the day:- AAPL - Big gap up
- RVBD - Big gap down
- VMW - Big gap up
- CRUS - Gap up
- ISRG - Gap up
- CMG - Gap down
You should watch these stocks to see how they open. They may reverse, or continue in the direction of their opening gap. Generally speaking, I'll be looking at a 15 minute candlestick chart, and if after the first 15 minutes, the stock is trading higher than the first 15 minute candlestick, the high probability day trade is to be long. If on the other hand the stock trades lower than the first 15 minute candlestick, the high probability day trade is to be short. This is not a hard and fast rule and not every trade will be worth taking, but the 15 minute candlestick guideline is a good place to start when it comes to trading gap openings intraday. Just remember to identify resistance and calculate your potential risk:reward ratio before you act. Plan your trade, and trade your plan!
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ben_dover0802
shroom addict


Registered: 09/21/08
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Re: Stock Update for July 19, 2011 - PAL, UEC, XOP, GLD, AAPL, STEC, BAC, PCX [Re: geokills]
#14799789 - 07/20/11 07:34 PM (12 years, 6 months ago) |
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Did you get stopped out of PAL at 4.41 today?
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geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
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Stock Update for July 21, 2011 - PAL, UEC, CSX, CALM, SJM [Re: ben_dover0802]
#14802224 - 07/21/11 09:01 AM (12 years, 6 months ago) |
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Yep, I was stopped out of my long stock positions in PAL (yesterday) and UEC (this morning). I am still holding a few LEAPS (Jan 2013 $2 calls) on PAL, since I think this stock will ultimately break out above the 200 day. The stock still looks like it is in a healthy consolidation period, I just got shaken out, literally at the low of the day yesterday (as Dan would say: too bad, so sad). UEC also looks OK, though not quite as nice as PAL. At this point I will wait for either a tightening of the bollinger bands (in order to better define my risk in a range of lower volatility) or a breakout above either stock's 200 day moving average before getting back into them in any meaningful way. Full disclosure: I am bidding on more PAL Jan 2013 $2 calls @ $2.60. I also have a bid in for some Jan 2013 $2.50 calls on UEC @ $1.00.
New positions:- In other news, I have taken a small position in CSX, as the stock is in a long term uptrend and has been consolidating for several months. Earnings are behind us and the Transportation Index is perking up right at its 50 day moving average. Volatility is beginning to squeeze on CSX and I would look for a continuation of the longer term upside momentum, though I will not overstay my welcome in the event the stock breaks below it's recent range, the low end of which is around $24.30 - $24.70.
- I have also been adding CALM to my portfolio, which would appear extended by almost any measure. However, when you consider that the stock pays a 5.8% dividend and that the short interest on this stock is nearly 5 million shares, which at the usual trading volume would take almost a month for all the shorts to cover... You know they're hurting with the way the stock is going parabolic (and they have to pay the dividends on top of it!). In fact, it's no doubt going parabolic because the short sellers are panicking out of their positions. Given how heavily shorted the stock is, this move could last a while.
- I also took a position in SJM this morning. I had been watching it for a few days since it broke above its 50 day moving average. Just wanted to make sure it would move above the high it set on 6/22. Today it is setting an all time high, and you'll see volatility expanding on the daily chart. The weekly chart also looks poised to begin an expansion, so I'm long baby!
Now, to review two phenomenal trades posted 8 days ago:- This was then... This is now...

- This was then... This is now...

It's a bummer I got shaken out of ZAGG on the first day and didn't make a point to re-enter the position. That thing has returned over 26% in a week (can you imagine if you were in on the options, some of the peeps over at the trading site are seeing 300 - 500% gains on their options positions!). I did take my XOP options off the table today, for a clean 100% profit in one week's time. The S&P is approaching resistance and XOP has been on a tear. I would expect it to come in a bit, and will look to re-enter the position with relative market support and a probable re-test of the $62 level.
It would be worthwhile to keep an eye on the financials, which have been performing rather well over the past few days. I am long some LEAPS on BAC that are already up 26% (curse for not buying more!). Morgan Stanley (MS) had a big ol' pop today on its earnings and if it manages to close here, it'll be its first close above its 50 day moving average since March 3rd! Volatility is high, so I wouldn't chase it right now, but on a successful re-test of its 20 day moving average, or if it can hold this level for several sessions, I would be interested in taking a position.
I am also hoping for gold and silver to come in a bit so I can get a better entry, but those risk assets are being stubbornly strong in an environment filled with economic uncertainty. SLV has me interested at $36.54, and GLD would have me at $152. I'm going to be patient on these.
Positions (largest to smallest):
70% Long Stock (SJM, KMP, NLY, PSEC, AGNC, PCX, CALM, AAPL, STEC) 19% Cash 8% Long Unsecured Debt @ 12% APY via LendingClub.com 3% Long Call Options (PAL Jan 2013 $2, CSX Sep $25, BAC Jan 2013 $10, DANG Jan 2013 $15)
EDIT: MS just kept on going today, wish I took a bite when I mentioned it this morning, but I'm pretty full to the long side so I'll sit that one out for now. What I didn't sit out, was the tremendous action on Molycorp (MCP) a rare earth metals play. A huge buyer stepped in during the last 15 minutes of the trading day, which is setting this stock up to break out from its symmetrical triangle pattern (also the 50 day moving average). I was fortunate to catch the last 3% of the move this afternoon (because I had an alert set at the top of the triangle), and will be watching this one closely to see that it stays above its 50 day moving average on increasing volume, in which case I will probably be buying call options to augment the position. This stock is known for rapid movement, it's highly speculative and really only suited for momentum trading. Be careful out there!
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
Edited by geokills (07/21/11 02:26 PM)
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Bambi
Friendly Forrest Animal




Registered: 03/22/09
Posts: 1,668
Last seen: 6 months, 29 days
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Re: Stock Update for July 21, 2011 - PAL, UEC, CSX, CALM, SJM [Re: geokills]
#14804825 - 07/21/11 06:36 PM (12 years, 6 months ago) |
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Geo, thanks for responding to the thread i started, i really appreciate it. I read through the first post and the more recent few pages of the thread. very informative stuff and it is all written very well. i just have a few more questions. What are the moving day averages you mention? and what does every thing on your charts mean? How do you feel about RIET's? if you could point me in the right direction to get my answers or take the time to answer them yourself, id appreciate it.
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"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben
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