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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for April 24, 2011 [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #14437044 - 05/11/11 09:10 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

ben_dover0802 said:

What is also concerning is I am lower in total value than I was Thursday, yet the market as a whole is still higher.. :thumbdown:



Underperforming the market is always a major bummer... makes me wish I just bought some SPY and went on vacation, letting the market do all the work for me!  But fret not, what's done is done.  Tomorrow is a new day; all we can do is do our best to check our emotions at the door and focus on the potential for future opportunity as it presents itself!

I'm liking the looks of Century Tel (CTL), with a 7.1% yield, and looking to be starting a leg higher.  Telecom in general has been very strong of late.


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Offlineben_dover0802
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Re: Stock Update for April 24, 2011 [Re: geokills]
    #14437324 - 05/11/11 09:53 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

:cheers: to that. Speaking of dividend stocks, you recommended giving AGNC some thought right after the last pay period, since then, it hasn't done bad at all.  Up over 4% after today + that sweet 18-19% yield.

I know investing in these high yield stocks are risky, but I currently have a 5% position in AGNC, and its one of my few positions that is doing well so far.  Do these high yield REIT's generally just get wrecked very quickly if they fail?


Edited by ben_dover0802 (05/12/11 02:17 AM)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for April 24, 2011 [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #14441951 - 05/12/11 08:02 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

The REIT's are unlikely to fail, though when the monetary policy of our country changes by beginning to raise rates, they will be affected.  One would hope that the managers of the given REIT would be savvy enough to anticipate these changes, and therefore already be amidst the process of modifying their portfolio to hold more adjustable rate loans in their portfolio.  Of course, this is why it is so important to buy into the companies with the best management.  Among the high yielding REIT's, Annaly Capital Management (NLY) comes to mind.

I added quite a bit of long exposure today, specifically call options on EMC, EL, and CREE, which just today appeared to be popping out of a long and persistent downtrend.


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Offlineben_dover0802
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Re: Stock Update for April 24, 2011 [Re: geokills]
    #14445944 - 05/13/11 02:54 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

...Another very frustrating day, to conclude a very frustrating week.
I don't know if my risk tolerance is as high as I once thought, or I am just made some bad picks, but I down 4.5% this week, about 6.5% since March, really want to stop the bleeding.

I sold my BIDU today as it crossed its 50day average, this is the correct step to try and minimize loss correct? With how things are going for me so far its going to shoot right back up monday...
Just realized CHK has broke through its Feb resistance and I should probably sell that as well, I don't know why I didn't see that during trading hours. Took a little bet that silver will go down over the weekend, maybe hit ~31/oz by early next week, so took a small position in ZSL that I plan to sell quickly either way.

Holding onto CAT, DANG, AMT, AGNC and my s&p stock VOO...

With those added long positions I am sure you didn't do very well either Geo..

I am going to relax this weekend, finished all my finals, ain't got shit to do for the first time in a long while, so overall I am happy in life, but still am a little bit upset about my investments. 

Since I have some extra time now, I am reading some of the older posts in this thread when it was more active, hopefully to learn more.  Also may order one of those trading books you recommended.

In an attempt to make me feel better I am curious how you did when you first started? Did you ever have to recover from a bad quarter/year in aggregate? How much has your portfolio grown based on original capital invested in your years of trading? I know you traded during 2008:thumbdown:, but also 2009:thumbup:.  It sucks basic math tells us an increasing gain is needed to offset a loss (ex. a 25% loss to 33% gain, 50% loss to 100% gain, etc), its something I am nervous about.


Edited by ben_dover0802 (05/13/11 03:00 PM)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for April 24, 2011 [Re: ben_dover0802] * 1
    #14451541 - 05/14/11 02:03 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Yes, this market has been immensely frustrating over the past few months.  I need to re-evaluate my strategy and, principle to that, I need to lay off the option trading.  Having a leveraged contract with time value is not for the faint of heart, and clearly I have failed to initiate my call options as close to support as I should.  Ironically, I've been doing better doing something I hardly talk about here, selling puts into strong weakness, but that ties up a lot of capital as a "maintenance requirement" in order to hold the short puts into expiration and I generally don't do a lot of that due to capital constraints (sure wish that weren't a problem!).

Anyway, I was down 30% after the financial crisis played out from 2008.  I learned a lesson from that, and was able to make that money back.  But over the last three months I again find myself down 10% from my portfolio's highs.  This is a pretty serious area that raises big red flags in my eyes.  Down any more than 10% and you really start to have a hard time battling your way back to even.  This is the level that I really need to take a step back and re-evaluate.  I probably won't be trading options as often, and quit trying to micromanage my positions so much.  This type of behavior is leading me to endure the dreaded "death by a thousand paper cuts", where I start positions only to see myself closing them within days, often for only small stop losses.  But all those little losses... they add up!

In an up-trending market, this strategy would be making me boatloads.  But this market is trending sideways.  And while I am mindful of the inverse head and shoulders pattern that should show us upside to 1400... I am also mindful that the market is unpredictable and irrational, and I need to trade the landscape that is in front of me.  I wish I had thought about this a little more over the past few weeks.  This has been an emotionally volatile time for me in my personal life, and as has historically been the case, my trading has also suffered markedly.  It is important that I better and more quickly realize that periods of emotional volatility do not lend themselves to good trading (and vice versa!).

Adhere to your stops.  Do you damndest to only buy near support, even if that means you may miss some great trades (or use position sizing to buy small).  Your patience and diligence will ultimately be rewarded so long as you exercise discipline.  Good luck!


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OfflineCosmicLion
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Re: Stock Update for April 24, 2011 [Re: geokills]
    #14457353 - 05/15/11 04:32 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
Yes, this market has been immensely frustrating over the past few months.  I need to re-evaluate my strategy and, principle to that, I need to lay off the option trading.




The spot Forex market has been offering decent opportunities through technical analysis. Maybe take a little Forex vaction before returning back to Equities with a fresh outlook? :lol:

Or maybe just a bunch of trading guru YouTube vids and a little LSD

:awecid:

Are you familiar with Brian Shannon and Michael Covel? IMO the two best author's in regards to trading in the stock market....

:strokebeard:


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for April 24, 2011 [Re: CosmicLion]
    #14457443 - 05/15/11 04:48 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

I am not familiar with those people, but will take a look see.


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Re: Stock Update for April 24, 2011 [Re: geokills]
    #14457538 - 05/15/11 05:06 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
I am not familiar with those people, but will take a look see.




Brian Shannon wrote "Technical Analysis Using Multiple Timeframes" which has been HIGHLY regarded among most all of the trading community since its release.

http://www.technicalanalysisbook.com/

Michael Covel is the author of the famous book "Trend Following" and the founder of the Turtle Trader website. He has had one of the most consistently profitable trading methods. Like Brian he is a trend follower...

http://www.turtletrader.com/

:bigjoint:


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Stock Update for May 18, 2011 - S&P Bounces @ 50 Day, Still in Peril! [Re: CosmicLion]
    #14472743 - 05/18/11 11:23 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Thanks Lion.  I took a quick glance at those two books (as well as their reviews), and ended up snagging a copy of Technical Analysis Using Multiple Timeframes.  The Michael Covel book looks like it features a lot more fluff and general opinion, than specific analytical techniques designed to be put into practice.

On that note, the market is bouncing at its 50 day, but there is still A LOT of congestion over head and I'm really not too trusting of these moves higher.  Nevertheless, I'm not one to turn down an opportunity for a low risk entry, seeing as the S&P just tagged its lower bollinger band on the daily chart and is bouncing right at the 50 day moving average, which is widely considered an important level to hold as support.

Therefore, I have taken positions in the following:

  • EMC still grinding its way higher above the 50 day after re-testing 4/20/11 earnings breakout.
    June $27 calls - very tight leash on these.  Stop on a violation of $27.53 (stock currently at $27.72)

  • DE reported OK earnings and isn't reacting well, but a low risk entry all the same after its 14% slide in 2 weeks (USE A STOP).
    Long Common Stock with a stop below $85

  • EL volatility expansion phase 3, I gravely mismanaged phase 2 of the expansion, not going to make that mistake again!
    Long Common Stock with a stop below $101

  • NTAP bouncing off of its 20 day moving average
    Long Common Stock with a stop below $51.77

  • PSEC (added to existing position) - 11% annual dividend - no stops set, only alerts at recent lows.

  • AAPL - bouncing off of lower bollinger band to make a higher low vs 4/18/11 - starter position

  • UNP - Kicking some ass bouncing off of its breakout level, looking for weekly chart to resume volatility expansion to the upside.



A move above 1345 on the S&P would make me a lot more confident, whereas a move below 1320 would make me a lot more confident... IN CASH! :wink:

Until either of those levels are breached, trades must be taken with a short term bias, stops kept very tight in order to cut away losers without hesitation, and profits should be taken when stocks or indexes approach short term resistance.  I've been making the mistake of focusing too greatly on the longer term uptrend on the S&P, which has had me rightfully chewed up quite a bit over these past several weeks.  This is not an up-trending market in the intermediate term, short-term we look to have a bounce going, longer term the uptrend is still intact but merits definite caution due to the intermediate term range bound landscape.  I am watching the S&P closely for a failure between 1340 - 1345.  Clearing that level is extremely important for the bulls.


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Re: Stock Update for April 24, 2011 [Re: geokills]
    #14474068 - 05/18/11 04:03 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

good bargain on HPQ imo, if you don't mind holding onto a stock for a couple months


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Re: Stock Update for April 24, 2011 [Re: shr]
    #14474437 - 05/18/11 05:23 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Maybe... maybe not.  I think HPQ could get down to $30 without too much trouble, which is nearly 20% lower than today's price.  Hewlett Packard simply doesn't offer anything cutting edge or propriety, they're a large cap tech commodity and are probably still suffering internally from the untimely departure of their last CEO Mark Hurd.  Kind of like Microsoft, HPQ is a dinosaur; difficult to get moving in a nimble market.  While I don't doubt that there will come a point where you'll find a short-term tradeable bottom in the stock, without growth (or at least the anticipation of growth), I see no catalyst for HPQ to consistently trade markedly higher over the longer term.  On the contrary, I see plenty of reasons for it to trade lower.


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Stock Update for May 20, 2011 - SLW, UNP, EMC, CTL, S&P [Re: geokills]
    #14484285 - 05/20/11 12:55 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Took a little bit of stock in a large silver mining conglomerate Silver Wheaton (SLW) this morning.  Ditched EL yesterday and DE at the open today upon signs of struggle (though I am keeping my eye on EL by setting price alerts for a move above $102.97, or a bounce at $100).  EMC and CTL continue to behave very well, UNP is still hanging in there pretty well too.  There was a nice morning shakeout in the S&P today, from which a close above 1340 would bode well for the market and below 1335 would be more precarious, technically speaking; though I honestly don't have a lot of confidence either way, and am thus keeping all positions on a tight leash.


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Re: Stock Update for May 20, 2011 - SLW, UNP, EMC, CTL, S&P [Re: geokills]
    #14485616 - 05/20/11 05:38 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

A precarious market it appears

With my extra free time I have become borderline obsessed with getting better at trading, and have started to take this seriously. I feel already my technical skills are better. I dropped my losers, and am hoping to pick up some winners that will continue to win. (Sort of regret selling AMT after today's strong gain on above average volume but it still hasn't breach resistance yet - we will see Monday)

But I feel like my portfolio is in a much better position to make some money while limiting downside with predetermined stops. 


Here is what I have been bought, wouldn't mind getting any feedback:
AXP (American Express)  = Bad day  today but appears to in phase 2 of volatility expansion. Support was at the lowest price of yesterday, I like the chances of upside. I will be putting a stop at the 20dma as it has bounced from about that line.

TTWO (Take Two Interactive Software) -  Video game publisher such as 2k games and Rockstar. Bought for again technical reasons as well as their 5 quarter winning streak of beatings earnings estimates (last quarter was way above the high estimate).  We have what looks to be a volatility breakout and it is climbing higher than it has been since 2008. My stop is at 16.60ish, the previous resistance.

Last new thing I bought just today was another financial.
GLCH (Gleacher and Co Inc)
I know I shouldn't get too heavy in financial since I just got AXP, but I see an opportunity and took it. It has been in a downtrend for a long time and is showing signs of a reversal.  Closed higher than resistance for 3 months on very strong volume, has been getting "higher lows" since then. This stock is priced low, so I see alot of upside compared to risk. I bought today at $2.04 - My stop point is about $1.80, the support line.

Holding on to CAT, its been kinda chugging along 105 for a few days now, would like to see it test its previous highs of $115 for an exit point.  If it breaks down though support(where it is now) - I am selling quick. 

Still have about 20% of my portfolio in a S&P index, if one of these stocks show good strength, I may sell that to buy the winner.

:rasta:


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Re: Stock Update for May 20, 2011 - SLW, UNP, EMC, CTL, S&P [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #14489550 - 05/21/11 01:13 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

AXP is a good one, the volatility expansion on the weekly chart being a thing of beauty.  On the daily, it looks to be setting up for an entry.  I've been stalking it with a $2 bid on the July $50 calls.

I would advise some caution on TTWO.  It's consolidating after its recent breakout on the daily chart and could fall back into the range since the stock is smacking up against resistance from a major gap down way back during the week of Sept 15th, 2008 (look at a 3 year weekly chart).  The stock is definitely looking constructive, but this market has been so choppy that you should protect any gains you have.  I would be keeping a stop below $16.75.  If you get stopped out, set a price alert at that level so that you can review whether you'd like to get involved again if the stock reverses higher.

I would also advise caution on CAT.  Big money has been rotating out of that sector over the past several weeks.  Keep a stop at $101.46.  I take the fact that the stock is lower than it was before it reported earnings just a few weeks ago, as a sign of relative weakness.


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Re: Stock Update for May 20, 2011 - SLW, UNP, EMC, CTL, S&P [Re: geokills]
    #14494553 - 05/22/11 03:24 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Thanks for your thoughts Geo. I will set a higher stop than I originally had with TTWO, it could easily go either way this week.

yeah, I feel CAT is not as strong as it was a few weeks ago. If I sold right now, I would break about even, so I guess its not bad, but I would like to see if I can get any profit from it. It has broke through its 50dma and failed to return so the more I think about it the better it sounds to sell sooner than later - then possibly buy cheaper down the road.

I will be keeping an eye on UNP, if I can get some shares around 100 on a bounce I probably will - it looks to have strong support at that level.


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Re: Stock Update for April 4, 2011 - General Remarks [Re: geokills]
    #14516963 - 05/26/11 06:40 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

How is lendingclub.com treating you?  I really like the sound of it, but my overall impression after reading various articles is that it feels sketchy. 

Also, do they really enforce the $70,000 minimum income limit?


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for April 4, 2011 - General Remarks [Re: Terillius]
    #14517485 - 05/26/11 08:19 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

LendingClub has been great, it looks like one of my loans may default, but it was a very tiny investment ($25) since I knew it was a high risk borrower to begin with (21% interest rate!).  You just need to be careful in the loans you select to fund.  80% of the loans I fund are from borrowers in the A/B category, with some C's thrown in just for kicks.  I also make sure when browsing for new notes, that the borrowers are Verified & Approved, and have had 60+ months since any delinquency.  I also read through their Q&A to make sure they are responsive and seem to have a good plan.  All in all, no complaints.  It is unsecured debt, so it is risky, but you can mitigate your risk through your own careful selection of borrowers.

I have no idea about the $70K minimum income limit you're talking about.


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OfflineTerillius
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Re: Stock Update for April 4, 2011 - General Remarks [Re: geokills]
    #14517580 - 05/26/11 08:37 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
I have no idea about the $70K minimum income limit you're talking about.




Err, I mean, I don't know about it either. :wink:

Pros:
Fixed Interest
Good Interest (~9%)
Monthly Payments

Cons:
Low Liquidity (36 or 60 month commitment)
Risk (3% default rate)

I like this better than getting a handful of dividend stocks.  It sure beats a CD or letting the money sit in savings.  Can you connect an IRA to lendingclub.com?


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Re: Stock Update for April 4, 2011 - General Remarks [Re: Terillius]
    #14520807 - 05/27/11 01:19 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

You can, and they're actually offering a bonus if you roll over an existing IRA. $25,000 will get you $250, $50,000 will get you $500, and $100,000 will get you $1,500. Check out https://www.lendingclub.com/sdIRA/registerSDIRA.action.


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Re: Stock Update for April 4, 2011 - General Remarks [Re: geokills]
    #14526927 - 05/28/11 04:31 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Did better this week.. managed to beat the market finally.

Sold all my shares of CAT, and TTWO, could have kept CAT for a better exit point , but coulda woulda shoulda blah blah blah.

AXP is looking good continuing to bounce off its 20 day moving average. I bought a little too early on that last pullback but still happy about being involved in American Express. Hope you are profiting as well.

I was correct so far about GLCH breaking out, it is approaching the previous resistance of its 200 day moving average, if it can break through I will be adding to my position.

Bought a starter position of DPZ (Dominos pizza), just looks like a strong stock continuing to have a slow upward slope, even after a big breakout.  Setting a tight stop as it is pretty extended above its moving averages.

Will be setting fairly tight stops for all my positions actually as I am off to Mexico this week to enjoy some beach and alcohol :smile:

Hope everyone enjoys their weekend.

P.S. This is kinda your journal Geo so if I am just cluttering it up you can let me know I wont be offended


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