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ben_dover0802
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Re: Stock Update for April 24, 2011 [Re: geokills]
#14346840 - 04/25/11 12:14 AM (12 years, 9 months ago) |
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Lol at the head and shoulders illustration. Thanks for that. Really interesting stuff though.
I recently sold some shares of Sony that I got at a discount after the tsunami and have some extra money in my brokerage account. After last weeks generally good earnings report specifically from Intel and Apple, I am considering taking a bet that Microsoft (MSFT) will also report positive earnings this Wednesday. Many people are saying Microsoft is already undervalued with a P/E of 10.8, so I think this is a pretty good risk/reward situation. I will post if I do pull the trigger.
Also, when I started trading I put about 50% of my trading funds into a S&P 500 ETF, I decided I am ready for more risk, and would like to sell those and invest in individual stocks when the time is right. If this breakout occurs, I think the time would be right, and would look for some of your friendly advice on good places to go long.
Pretty exciting stuff, this trading business. Way better than having money sit in a bank account gaining .2% a year. I am looking forward to many decades of it if I make it that long.
Anyway, thanks for the update....keep posting!
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geokills
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Stock Update for April 25, 2011 - DANG, SOHU, APKT, NTAP [Re: ben_dover0802]
#14347906 - 04/25/11 08:07 AM (12 years, 9 months ago) |
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Tehcnology is the name of the game... Stocks that I have added to my portfolio this morning:
- DANG - Essentially a Chinese Amazon.com (check it out at dangdang.com or click here for their most recent earnings report). It's a new issue that's only been trading since late last year, but the Chinese are gaining more wealth and if you look at the success of Amazon, I'd have to believe DangDang will also kick some serious ass over the longer term. Stock was up strong last week and is continuing to show some strength today. Compounding matters is a large short interest in this stock (30%+ of the float is sold short), meaning that as the stock moves higher, those shorts are going to become more likely buy back the stock to cover their losing short position. On the other hand, while the company is profitable, it is still trading at an exceptionally high price to earnings ratio. Given a more reasonable valuation, this stock would certainly be trading in the single digits; there is a lot of premium being assigned to the POTENTIAL of this company, given its business model and the market it is exposed to. Having increased their reach substantially year over year and raising some $250 million from their IPO on the NYSE, I think they are in a great position to gain greater exposure to Chinese consumers.
I am holding a little bit of stock just to trade with, and am also involved with the June $28 call options as well as a single $15 call option for January 2013. The January 2013 option cost me $1180, and gives me the right to obtain 100 shares of DANG @ $15 by January 2013, which is 635 days from now. With the stock currently trading at around $25, that means that DANG needs to go up $1.80 to $26.80 a share for me to break even ($11.80 per share option cost + $15 option strike price). If I am still holding the option at its expiration, I stand to gain (or lose) $100 for each dollar that DANG is above (or below) $26.80 in January of 2013. That's a lot of time to work with so I'm willing to stick my neck out on this high flier and wait to see what happens. While I can see this thing totally taking off, I will close the position for a loss if the stock breaks below its all time low of $18.76.
- SOHU - A Chinese mass portal / online media destination for video games, news, advertising, etc. Reported great earnings this morning and has broken out to new highs above $100.
- APKT - Communications technology company specializing in the integrated delivery of real time multimedia (i.e. voice/video). Volatility expansion to the upside on the daily chart and hitting all time highs. Be mindful that earnings are going to be reported Tuesday after the market close, which could send the stock on a violent move one way or the other! I am keeping a stop below today's intraday low (just under $77), and will close at least half of the position prior to earnings.
- NTAP - Computer storage business for archiving data on an enterprise (large) scale. Has found support at the 50 day moving average and is slowly grinding higher. There is a fair amount of overhead resistance on this name, so I would be fairly cautious in buying too quickly. A break above $53 and a re-tracement that doesn't fall below $50 before bouncing would be an ideal setup for more upside.
Remember to scale in slowly. The market is at resistance and probably won't have a chance at breaking out to the upside until after we hear from the Federal Reserve (FOMC) on Wednesday, including and especially Ben Bernanke's first ever press conference following the release; which to me, indicates that they'll probably be taking a more hawkish tone and the press conference is designed to help quell some of the hand-wringing that is bound to manifest upon the thoughts of rising interest rates.
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ben_dover0802
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Re: Stock Update for April 25, 2011 - DANG, SOHU, APKT, NTAP [Re: geokills]
#14350852 - 04/25/11 06:54 PM (12 years, 9 months ago) |
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I never heard of dangdang, but love the idea. I went ahead and bought a small position with some of the extra money in my account. You weren't kidding with high expectations - I have never seen a P/E of over 1000. I have no doubt why the expectation is so high though, and feel good about the purchase.
I had a question. Some banks are actually trading with a P/book value below 1, such as SNV which is actually .69 Does this not mean that if I bought this stock and they sold all their assets I would automatically make a profit? Not saying that I expect this to happen, but why are these trading so cheap and what would be the risk if I bought a position with the plan that I can hold on to it for several years?
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for April 25, 2011 - DANG, SOHU, APKT, NTAP [Re: ben_dover0802]
#14351433 - 04/25/11 08:24 PM (12 years, 9 months ago) |
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Buying closed end funds that are trading below their net asset value can definitely be worthwhile for the longer term investor. However, there are also several issues that trade below book value that may not be a good investment due to the declining profitability of their business models or the fact that they are laden with debt (oil refiners are at times cited as an example). Also to note, if a company does ultimately go bankrupt and liquidate all of their assets, a common stock shareholder is not likely to see any restitution; the first in line to collect on a liquidation sale are always the debt/bond holders.
Since you got involved with DANG, I might suggest to you that if you have a very low risk tolerance, you should keep a stop below today's intraday low of $24.05 (when it's that close to a round dollar figure, I typically set my stop below the dollar figure to give it some wiggle room, say $23.89). There are three other important levels to watch as well, which you may choose as your stop (again depending upon your personal risk tolerance). Those levels are: $22.75 (home of the 50 day and also just below the breakout retracement that occurred last Thursday/Friday); $21.30ish (home of the 20 day moving average which also coincides roughly with the April 19th breakout/volatility expansion); and finally the absolute all-time low of $18.76.
For a relatively conservative short to intermediate term investor who still doesn't want to get shaken out of the stock prematurely, I would suggest that the 50 day at $22.75 is the most important level to watch. If you're in it for the long haul, the absolute low should be your stop. Just my opinion, of course.
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ben_dover0802
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Re: Stock Update for April 25, 2011 - DANG, SOHU, APKT, NTAP [Re: geokills]
#14358161 - 04/26/11 10:09 PM (12 years, 9 months ago) |
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Sounds good. I have a moderate risk tolerance, any gains/losses won't change my standard of living, but I do want to become a better trader. Also, I don't have a problem holding on to DANG for while, especially at the volume of shares I currently hold, so 18.76 will be my limit. Thanks for the advice.
Was today's gains enough for you to add to your long positions?
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for April 25, 2011 - DANG, SOHU, APKT, NTAP [Re: ben_dover0802]
#14358385 - 04/26/11 10:34 PM (12 years, 9 months ago) |
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The only thing I bought today was a small piece of WAB, and in fact mostly sold a couple of positions where stops were hit (namely, APKT and my DANG common stock). I am still holding my DANG 2013 calls, which are the primary trade for me on that name (I just didn't want to be so over-exposed, in case the thing does break down). While the market did print a new high today, I am very weary of the FOMC / Ben Bernanke press conference tomorrow and the fact that we are still essentially at resistance. It is possible that today's breakout to new highs could have been a fake out, and I will wait to see how the market reacts to tomorrows Fed news before adding to any longs.
Note: UNP, transports/railroads are looking good. NFLX fell hard after earnings this morning, right down to its 50 day moving average. I would be watching it for signs of a bounce, at which point I will probably end up taking a long position. CMG is also down pretty heavy for three days in a row, right at its 50 day. I would like to see a bounce to add to that name as well.
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shr
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Re: Stock Update for April 24, 2011 [Re: ben_dover0802]
#14360919 - 04/27/11 12:44 PM (12 years, 9 months ago) |
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woo up 7% the past 5 trading days on acas
watch for may 3rd earnings report, i'm hoping for a dividend reinstatement soon after (if the stock keeps rallying)
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ben_dover0802
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Re: Stock Update for April 24, 2011 [Re: shr]
#14363413 - 04/27/11 08:30 PM (12 years, 9 months ago) |
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Nice shr, ACAS really does have a nice constant positive slope, best of luck, I will see what happens may 3rd.
Geo, I am assuming today showed enough strength to do it for you?
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geokills
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Stock Update for April 28, 2011 - CMG, EL, UA [Re: ben_dover0802]
#14365913 - 04/28/11 09:23 AM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
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The reaction to the FOMC's statement on maintaining its monetary policy helped the markets break out to new highs yesterday, and again this morning. It would seem that the risk of being out of the market is now greater than the risk of being in; as our dollar will continue to be devalued, home prices are still falling, and frankly, there isn't much opportunity for growth oriented asset allocation other than stocks. As such, I have added to my position in CMG, which this morning is bouncing off of its 50 day moving average. I have also opened small call option positions in EL May $100 and UA May $72.50. EL is in a very tight volatility squeeze at its 50 day, and is showing signs of an imminent volatility expansion this morning. UA sold off on extremely heavy volume earlier in the week and is bouncing at its 50 day. Keeping tight stops on all near term options.
Got stopped out of my NTAP long stock... almost at the absolute low of the day $51.33 (low of $51.30)  Nothing wrong with the stock, but I will respect the stop and wait for signs of the breakout continuing before getting re-involved.
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LZip
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Re: Stock Update for April 28, 2011 - CMG, EL, UA [Re: geokills]
#14366171 - 04/28/11 10:37 AM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
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would any of you mind checking out VOLC? I got in at 25.51, currently up to 26.71. Looking at the financial statements, the company looks to be heading in the right direction, and they are also involved with Japan. I'm just curious how long I should hold.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for April 28, 2011 - CMG, EL, UA [Re: LZip]
#14366558 - 04/28/11 11:55 AM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
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Don't know much about the company, but the chart is lookin' pretty nice, decisively breaking above the 50 day moving average into a bit of a volatility expansion. Just be mindful that the company is fairly expensive on a PE and PEG valuation basis. Also be mindful that they report earnings on the 4th, which could send the stock either way. Generally, if a stock runs up into its earnings report, it's good to take a little off before they release the report since a "good" report is already being priced in by the run-up, and if they disappoint, the move down could be extra painful.
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geokills
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Stock Update for May 4, 2011 - UNP, EMC, AAPL, BIDU [Re: geokills]
#14399361 - 05/04/11 10:56 AM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
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I have been very actively trading today, so if you want to learn what types of thoughts and reactions go through my head when I am fully immersed in the market... this is the post for you!
The market continues to be very choppy, and since I haven't posted an update in some time, let me start by quoting what I wrote in Hot Nuts thread yesterday:Quote:
geokills said:
I agree that this is the time for capital preservation and to limit near term exposure to the markets until a clear definition of support is produced. I have taken a lot of stops recently (especially today and yesterday), and even though many of these sales have resulted in losses; it feels a hell of a lot better to have cash on the sidelines (even if it's a bit less than I had a few months ago!), than holding onto such risky exposure in hopes of an uptick.
The inverse head and shoulders pattern on the S&P should be expected to "throw back" to the 1340ish area without much thought (nearly 20 more points down). If we bounce at that level, it should validate the continuation pattern of the longer term up-trend with an upside target of 1400 - 1420 based strictly upon a measured move off of the inverse head and shoulders pattern.
On the Silver vs Gold issue, there is a fundamental basis for gold being a safer bet than silver, right here right now. It is a combination of the parabolic run that silver has had in conjunction with the ever-increasing margin requirements on silver traders, more stringent requirements being announced just this week, which I believe is the third time this has happened this year! A lot of highly leveraged silver traders who are still very profitable in their positions, are probably going to continue putting selling pressure on this particular metal in order to 1) reduce their margin and 2) raise cash. I still think Gold is likely to come in a bit, but that it will be more orderly and that Silver has more potential downside in the near term.
Be careful out there. This is an exceptionally difficult stock market.
Well, we are indeed seeing that "throw back" I had mentioned, with the S&P looking ready to test 1340 as early as this afternoon. Given the velocity of the decline, I wouldn't be surprised to see it grind around or trickle down to somewhere around 1330 before seeing any real upside. On the other hand, if we break below 1320, I'd bet a lot of big money will see that as invalidating the inverse head and shoulders pattern discussed in my previous posts, and could very well lead to a cascade of selling pressure.
I am fortunate to be in the green today, thanks to some May $50 puts I bought on PAY this morning after the stock started to show weakness right at the open (after probing its 50 day moving average yesterday), and showing a volatility expansion to the downside when looking at the bollinger bands. I've since closed over half of the position for a 60% gain to take out my basis, with a stop on the remainder just above $48, a level that the stock has been unable to penetrate even after testing it several times this morning. This type of repeated pounding on a specific level is exactly the type of action you need to be on the lookout for if you want to make short term trades. Violation of the level indicates a change in the short-term trend, hence the diligent use of STOPS that will allow the position to continue working, until the support/resistance is violated.

As another example, in the opposite direction; I had also been watching silver due to the comments I noted above, and took a chunk of ZSL (a leveraged short on the SLV silver ETF), as soon as the 5 minute daily chart showed a volatility expansion to the upside at $18. One must keep a tight stop on this type of trade, since the underlying silver ETF has already been down BIG (this now being the 4th day in a row), and is also about to tag its 50 day moving average which certainly carries some psychological significance. Fortunately, the volatility expansion played out to my favor and I raised my stop three times this morning, just getting stopped out moments ago at $19.29 for a 7% gain. Note the white arrows showing the initial pop and volatility expansion. The green arrow points out the high volume continuation that essentially confirmed the move and allowed you to confidently place your stop right below that big intra-day move. Also to note, the MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) blue and yellow lines shown on the bottom of the image, crossed one another at the same time that the initial buy signal was given. I don't often follow MACD as an indicator that would cause me to buy, but I do watch it in order to help confirm my gut feeling on a directional move.

Now to get to what really matters, the forward looking stuff... there are three particular stocks that I am stalking for an entry:
- Union Pacific (UNP)

I believe I've mentioned keeping an eye on this, as the transports have been showing signs of strength and UNP in specific has a really nice weekly (longer term) chart formation, where it is popping out of the tight trading range it has been stuck in for the entire year thus far. The psychologically significant $100 level was keeping a lid on it, but it broke through decisively last week and is now pulling back to test that breakout level. So long as the stock stays above $99, I think we're right to be long UNP. I wouldn't go balls to the wall right here, since it's still down on the day and this is only the first day it has been down after its run over the past week, but I would take a small starter position right here, right now. I've been holding a little bit of stock just to keep an eye on this, and have supplemented that long stock with a single August 2010 $105 call option. If UNP begins to bounce at or above $99, this should carry the stock well over Monday's high of $104, and validate the volatility expansion on the weekly chart which could produce underlying buying pressure for a few months. If you want a higher growth railroad stock in the same sector, look to KSU. The chart isn't quite as nice, but the fundamentals are better. Harder to play with options however, as UNP is more known and liquid (thus, tighter spreads on the bid vs asking prices).
- EMC

This cloud computing / data storage company has great fundamentals (i.e. great growth) and is a leader in its industry. The stock has already been on quite a tear as evidenced by its weekly chart, but the daily chart is also interesting given the high volume breakout (volatility expansion) off of its positive earnings report. The stock has now completely retraced that breakout and is coming down to test its 50 day moving average. On any signs of strength, it would be worth taking a position with a tight stop just below the short term support.
- Apple (AAPL)
I've been out of this stock for a while now, however it's still one of the best run companies out there, with hoards of cash in the bank that they can put towards acquisitions of the companies that supply major parts for their products, as well as R&D to keep themselves ahead of the competition in bringing the consumer market the well packaged, stylish and intuitive products that they have become known for. Even with the potential of Steve jobs never coming back to the company, the stock is showing great resilience right here above its 50 day moving average, even as the market has been selling off hard over the past three days. I am stalking some longer dated call options, specifically at the $350 - $360 strike range, and looking out to January 2012 and possibly even January 2013. I would like to see a heavy day of overall market weakness to cause AAPL to spike down, which would give me a better entry on these long dated call options. Apple isn't going anywhere, and given their resources and market leadership position, I want to get back into this name.
- Baidu (BIDU)

Last thing to note, I took a bite of BIDU at $135.50 after the stock tagged its 50 day, has been down for five of the last six days, and is showing some small buying support right here. I am keeping a stop just below the current intraday low of $134.28, which means I'm risking less than 1% on the trade if it turns against me. Buying near some support with a tight stop is really the only thing you should be doing in a market as choppy as this one has been. The Chinese "google", what's not to like? (Yea, don't remind me, I know my recommendation on DANG aka the Chinese "amazon" has been a persistent nightmare down 9 out of the last 10 days... but since my DANG position is a 2013 call option, I'm giving it time). BIDU however, I am keeping on a very tight leash... I simply don't have room for too many lottery tickets in this market!
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ben_dover0802
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Re: Stock Update for May 4, 2011 - UNP, EMC, AAPL, BIDU [Re: geokills]
#14405603 - 05/05/11 02:35 PM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
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Ouch, I haven't been able to pay as much attention to stocks this week due to finals and have been getting pwned so far. Will be watching for a break below 1320 to cut my losses and maybe buy some SH. Otherwise, just holding.
Nice job on BIDU by the way, you got it at the perfect time. I bought some BIDU too, but my timing was bad and that little pullback hurt.
I have narrowed down some stocks I would like to get into for the long run. They include microsoft, nokia, and apple. Apple is just a beast, like you said, not going anywhere - will be patiently waiting for a good entry point. I have noticed that this is half the battle! Got burned on entry points a few times already with stocks diving the next day after purchase.
Microsoft and Nokia are trading cheap, have plenty of cash, teaming up and are planning to do some serious smartphone selling in the next couple years. They don't have to make the new Iphone, but do okay and their shares should rise - lots of microsoft haters around I have noticed. Nokia also offers a dividend of slightly over 6%.
Also I wanted to point out that about 10 minutes before close on the day CHK was to post earnings(may 2), the price started dropping quick. I really should have sold it then and there, word must have gotten out about the bad news before the actual close, and then when the news was actual presented, it dropped fairly hard in afterhour trading. Hopefully teaches me a lesson not doubt what the market is trying to say!
Thanks for the read Geo
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geokills
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Stock Update for May 10, 2011 - UNP, EL [Re: geokills]
#14429161 - 05/10/11 10:25 AM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
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We got our "throw back" down to 1330, and the market is now bouncing quite convincingly off of the neck line of that inverse head & shoulders pattern I spelled out a few updates ago. This is constructive, and I would expect the market to continue grinding higher over the next weeks and/or months to test the 1400 level. So, let's review a couple of names I have been talking about that I think are setup nicely for more upside...
- Union Pacific (UNP)
Railroads have continued to perform well over the longer term, as they are a more fuel efficient way to transport bulk materials, and with our energy needs and predominance of coal fired power plants, rails should continue to have fundamental support. My last update featured UNP after its heavy one day selloff, indicating the importance of the $99 level as support to validate a continuation of the expansion to the upside. It looks like that level has indeed held as support, although trading volume has been declining. Ideally, we would like to see the stock setting new all time highs on higher volume to send us a really strong signal that we can buy with confidence. Daily chart:

But even though volume is light, the stock did set a new all time high today. Couple that with the S&P's pattern which is indicating continuing upside in the aggregate market over the intermediate term, and add in the fundamental factor of oil correcting a little bit (which leads to reduced operating expense for UNP), and it stands to reason that the rails should continue their ascent. Again, it's the weekly chart here that really tells the story. A tight trading range throughout all of 2011, breaking out last month to a higher base above $100, with bollinger bands expanding. This is typically a very strong technical signal that the stock is destined higher. I am long with stock and August $105 call options.

- Estee Lauder (EL)
Estee Lauder reported a blow out quarter on the 5th of may, and the technical pattern since then is indicating another volatility squeeze giving way to upside expansion off of the 50 day. I should have highlighted this yesterday on the breakout to new highs, but sometimes I miss these things. I am accumulating a position on today's weakness, as I would expect to see EL test $110 within the next month. This breakout (which really started last Thursday when the stock bounced off its 50 day) has been on high volume, and today the stock is resting on relatively light volume (a good sign after a strong three day upside move). If the stock continues to rest, I would be a big buyer on any signs of strength at $100, with a stop at around $97.50.

Positions (largest to smallest):
52% CASH 35% Long Stock (KMP, PSEC, NLY, NTAP, UNP, AMZN, CMG 8% Long Unsecured Peer-to-Peer Debt via LendingClub.com @ ~12% APY 5% Long Call Options (DANG Jan 2013 $15, EL Jun $105, UNP Aug $105, EMC Jun $27, HBAN Jan 2012 $7.50, EL May $105, C Jan 2012) (-0.5%) Short Put Options (CRUS May $14, RIG Nov $55)
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shr
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Re: Stock Update for April 24, 2011 [Re: ben_dover0802]
#14434064 - 05/11/11 09:38 AM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
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Can someone explain to me how to tell if a company is profitable? I don't understand the company finances (balance sheet/cashflow) using the scottrade platform. i'm reading up on it now but it isn't going well to say the least
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for April 24, 2011 [Re: shr]
#14434199 - 05/11/11 10:17 AM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
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Christ, I got caught with my pants down today ... getting hit really hard with all the long exposure I've racked up over the past week. We had better see some support here soon, as intraday, this market is in a waterfall.
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memes
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Re: Stock Update for April 24, 2011 [Re: geokills]
#14434270 - 05/11/11 10:36 AM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
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geokills have you at all looked at japanese construction firms? And/or firms who supply raw materials to japan's construction market?
lots to rebuild in teh next 18mo.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for April 24, 2011 [Re: memes]
#14434634 - 05/11/11 12:12 PM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
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I have been keeping an eye on Kubota (KUB), however they recently reported earnings that missed the mark and withheld future guidance due to supply and electric power disruptions that are persisting throughout the country. I agree on the base thesis that there is clearly a need to rebuild in the country, however the extent to which their local corporations can operate normally in the near term is in question, in addition to the speed and extent of the re-building. Depending on the final assessment of the nuclear crisis, there may be less land to rebuild than previously thought. Unfortunately, KUB isn't optionable, otherwise I would be looking to pick up some LEAPS (call options giving me the right to buy stock at a specified price all the way through 2013).
In other news, this has been one of my worst days EVAR, down over 2.5% in aggregate.
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CosmicLion
Organical



Registered: 03/04/09
Posts: 783
Last seen: 4 years, 11 months
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Re: Stock Update for April 24, 2011 [Re: geokills]
#14434691 - 05/11/11 12:25 PM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: down over 2.5% in aggregate. 
 
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Earth's Essence
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ben_dover0802
shroom addict


Registered: 09/21/08
Posts: 648
Last seen: 7 years, 8 months
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Re: Stock Update for April 24, 2011 [Re: CosmicLion]
#14436010 - 05/11/11 05:33 PM (12 years, 8 months ago) |
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If it makes you feel any better (which I am sure it doesn't) I am down slightly less than 1.9% today as a whole. I feel like I got financially raped.
What is also concerning is I am lower in total value than I was Thursday, yet the market as a whole is still higher..
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