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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Stock Update for March 15, 2011 - SPX, EWJ, DO, CAT, CRUS [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #14131221 - 03/16/11 02:00 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

ditto on what Geo said about options. Stick with stocks until you feel comfortable enough analyzing all the variables of the market.  I've read dozens of books on investing and still wouldn't touch options with my 10 foot pole.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for March 16, 2011 - General Sentiment [Re: geokills]
    #14131529 - 03/16/11 02:50 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

:toomuchacid: Really brutal market today, I ended up giving back all of my gains from yesterday and then some (fortunately I actually had some sizable gains yesterday which allowed me to keep a little cooler head today!).  These amazingly rapid swings are giving me nausea and while the fear is starting to creep up to a fever pitch (which typically signals that it's time to start buying / adding to long positions), I cannot help but feel hostage to the headline risks out of Japan and the Middle East.  These two factors will have major repercussions to the global economy, and without some resolution and greater clarity, there is still a lot of risk left on the table, even after today's 2% slide in the markets which puts the S&P some 6.5% from its high set only one month ago.

The take away?  Don't burn yourself out by trying to catch falling knives or being a hyperactive trader.  Less is more in this type of environment.  There will come a time when strong support is made clear, but until that time, keep your investments "close to the vest", cut the losers quickly so you don't bleed to death, and only buy small when you do decide to get involved with a new position, while you wait for confirmation of support and an uptrend.

Good luck (we're all gonna need it!).


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for March 21, 2011 - S&P, VZ, CSX [Re: geokills]
    #14159585 - 03/21/11 02:34 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Still keeping things really small, not trading too much. 
But there is an interesting setup right here, right now,
for those who want to take a trade based on expecting
the expected.  Let's start by looking at the S&P 500:


   


You can see we have clearly broken down from the highs set approximately one month ago.  Most concerning,
we also failed to maintain support at the 50 day moving average (the dashed gray line).  Typically, when a
historical support level such as the 50 day is violated, the stock (or in this case, the S&P) will "throw back" to
test the prior support level.  This is a pivotal time, as often once a support line is broken, it becomes an area of
resistance.  Therefore, by expecting the expected, I would believe that the S&P will have a difficult time
surmounting the key 1300 level that coincides with both its 50 day and 20 day moving averages.  This belief is
further supported by the velocity with which the S&P has rebounded in the past three days.  Typically, such a
fast rebound will require some "backing and filling" before being able to break through prior support / current
resistance.  As such, I have bought SPY April $129 puts, which will gain in value as the S&P declines in value.
The alert set for 1305 or higher is my safeguard, prompting me to close the put position should the S&P decisively
re-take its 50 day moving average and the psychologically significant 1300 level.



Next up, Verizon (VZ):


   


Verizon has also seen a major rebound from the break of its 50 day moving average. In fact, the stock opened
up well above this key moving average and traded even higher, before selling off for the majority of the day. 
As soon as the stock broke its opening lows, I bought some April $36 puts, in anticipation that this stock will
succumb to selling pressure in the days ahead.  This belief is weakly supported by the fact that the stock is up
huge over the last three days and in need of a breather.  Much more significantly however, is the signal that
was given when the stock tagged the top of its recent trading range and then spent the rest of the day selling
off.  This is evidenced by the long tail on today's price action, with the stock closing near its lows, indicating a
lack of persistent buying interest at the highs, and should point to further consolidation. 

As with practically any trade in the current environment, this is short term, and I am only really looking for VZ
to tag $36 or so (its 50 day moving average) before closing this put position.  Though the move from $36.50 to
$36 is not a large one, the power of leverage afforded by options will make it quite profitable if it pans out.  To
protect my downside, I have set alerts above today's opening print, so that I can exit the trade for a
small loss should renewed signs of strength emerge.



The last trade I have been watching, but took no action on today, is with CSX:


   


The top chart is a weekly chart, where you can clearly see the strong and relatively steep uptrend.  An uptrend
this strong must be respected, and is a primary reason why I am waiting for the stock to show me a definitive
sign of weakness before taking this short-oriented trade.  On the lower daily chart, you can see that the stock
just today began to poke out of the upper bollinger band and in fact set an all-time high.  I am looking for a
counter-trend trade by buying the April $75 puts IF and only if CSX shows signs of faltering close to the
upper portion of its channel (somewhere around $79).  In order to confirm the weakness, I will also be
watching a chart of the Dow Jones Transportation Index ($DJT), which is currently in a volatility squeeze at its
50 day.

Because of rapidly increasing Middle East tensions, I don't think oil is going to get any cheaper, and if it
continues to move higher, I would expect the transportation average to falter since higher oil means it will cost
more money to operate the transportation devices.  Note also on the daily chart of CSX (the lower one) that
the trading volume today was lower for the third day in a row, even though the stock has continued to move
higher.  This indicates waning buying interest, and with the stock nearing the top of its channel, and oil looking
to move higher, I would expect this one to fall back to test its recent breakout level (and the 20 day moving
average) at around $75 in fairly short order.  This stock has been very strong, so at the moment one must be
very cautious with entries on a put (or short) position here.  However with diligence, I think it should pay off. 
Ideally, I would like to see a "gap and crap" where the stock opens higher tomorrow, but then immediately
begins to sell off.  That would be a very clear signal that the put trade is ON and you could be aggressive.



Positions (from largest to smallest):

    55% Cash
    34% Long Stock: KMP, PSEC, NLY, RIG, CAT, CPNO, AGNC
    8% Long Put Options: AAPL Apr $340 Put, VZ Apr $36 Put, SPY Apr $129 Put
    3% Long Call Options: CRUS Jun $22.50 Call, PBR Jul $39 Call, PBR Apr $35 Call
    (-8%) Short Put Options: AAPL Apr $345 Put, NLY Apr $18 Put
    8% Long Unsecured Debt via LendingClub.com @ ~12.4% APY


PS.  If you don't understand all of my positions, just realize that I'm positioned fairly flat at the moment.  The
vast majority of my long stock exposure is in high yielding issues.  Only my RIG and CAT stocks do not carry a
yield greater than 9% given my cost basis.  I'm keeping RIG on a tight leash and will close the position if it fails
to re-take its 50 day moving average by violating today's low.  CAT I may or may not give the boot on
weakness, but for the longer term I really like it based on the reconstruction needs from Japan.  If I do ditch it
in the near term for fear of aggregate market weakness (failure at the 1300 level on the S&P), I will be
keeping a close eye on it for an opportunity to re-enter as the company should be a pretty major beneficiary of
the Japanese reconstruction going forward.


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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Stock Update for March 21, 2011 - S&P, VZ, CSX [Re: geokills]
    #14159736 - 03/21/11 02:57 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

weeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for March 21, 2011 - S&P, VZ, CSX [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #14160539 - 03/21/11 05:48 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

One more quick thing to note, what looks to be a good opportunity for our more conservative investors who like to focus on longer term holding periods, dividends and cash flow.  Groovy Grant, I'm looking in your direction here! :biggrin:

American Capital Agency Corp (AGNC) just announced after the close that they will be issuing new public stock.  I started a small position in this name just a few days ago, happy it was small now!  The shares are taking a hit after hours on the news of the dilution from the new share offering, which gives you an opportunity to get into this name on a discount.  The company is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests in the dreaded mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations.  I know these are negative buzzwords, but so long as you don't pile your entire portfolio into this sector, your portfolio will probably thank you for including this very high yielding REIT.  Case in point, as of the close today, AGNC is paying out $5.60 per share annually via its dividend, which is a better than 18% annual yield!

Try finding that on treasuries or your local bank's certificate of deposit. :wink:

I'll be buying more tomorrow, and you might want to consider doing so as well.


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InvisibleDieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
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Re: Stock Update for March 21, 2011 - S&P, VZ, CSX [Re: geokills]
    #14160705 - 03/21/11 06:26 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

I have positions in AGNC, as well as NLY.  From what I know, these types of investments arnt good for long term wait and hold strategy.  What types of situations do I look for to exit these positions?  I want to look at the spread between long term and short term interest rates, right?  If that spread starts to shrink, the return on these investments will shrink as well.

What are your thoughts on this?


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for March 21, 2011 - S&P, VZ, CSX [Re: DieCommie]
    #14160863 - 03/21/11 06:59 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Your line of thinking is correct.  Hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve and the first rate hikes on the Federal Funds Rate will be a signal to review the performance of these mortgage REITS.  For my part, I'm not worrying about it right now.  Frankly, I won't worry about it until the companies themselves lower their distributions.  Then, depending on the reaction in the underlying share price, I may or may not reduce my exposure.  These holdings only comprise a fraction of my overall portfolio, so even if their dividend return does begin to shrink, unless the underlying share price reacts exceptionally poorly, they are still likely to pay out better than most other dividend issuers and therefore, I won't mind holding them.


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Offlineben_dover0802
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Re: Stock Update for March 21, 2011 - S&P, VZ, CSX [Re: geokills]
    #14161921 - 03/21/11 10:30 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

I am a little confused because the "Ex-Date" has already passed on AGNC, if I bought shares tomorrow, I would not be entitled to that wonderful 18% rate right?

Or are you saying since it will take a big hit tomorrow, it would be a good chance to get some ownership for the next dividend payout whenever that may be?


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InvisibleDieCommie

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Re: Stock Update for March 21, 2011 - S&P, VZ, CSX [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #14161953 - 03/21/11 10:34 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

You would not be entitled to the first quarter dividend.  Buy you would still be entitled to the next three dividends.  The four dividends dispersed in the year combined give you the 18%.  So for the next 3/4 of a year you would get 13% percentage yield which is equivalent to 18% annual percentage yield.


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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Stock Update for March 21, 2011 - S&P, VZ, CSX [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #14161986 - 03/21/11 10:39 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

I'm looking to acquire a small position in something rather aggressive.  Maybe a small-cap growth ETF.  I'm not really sure whether to look for a particular sector, or is there a blue-chip out there that's taken a recent hit that's worth taking a shot on...

Any suggestions?


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Offlineben_dover0802
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Re: Stock Update for March 21, 2011 - S&P, VZ, CSX [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #14161993 - 03/21/11 10:40 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Ah okay - gotcha.

Thanks


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Offlineben_dover0802
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Re: Stock Update for March 21, 2011 - S&P, VZ, CSX [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #14162033 - 03/21/11 10:48 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

The Ecstatic said:
I'm looking to acquire a small position in something rather aggressive.  Maybe a small-cap growth ETF.  I'm not really sure whether to look for a particular sector, or is there a blue-chip out there that's taken a recent hit that's worth taking a shot on...

Any suggestions?




Well, I have been doing this for about 2 weeks now so take this with a grain of salt but I bought some stock in Sony - its up about 5% in just a couple days and still pretty far from where it was before the tsunami.

I believe most of the Japanese stocks or perhaps the EWJ Japanese ETF are pretty high risk high reward right now.

Nike took a big hit too, even when shoe orders have risen this past year - could be a decent buying opportunity.


Edited by ben_dover0802 (03/21/11 10:56 PM)


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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Stock Update for March 21, 2011 - S&P, VZ, CSX [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #14164262 - 03/22/11 12:05 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

ben_dover0802 said:
Quote:

The Ecstatic said:
I'm looking to acquire a small position in something rather aggressive.  Maybe a small-cap growth ETF.  I'm not really sure whether to look for a particular sector, or is there a blue-chip out there that's taken a recent hit that's worth taking a shot on...

Any suggestions?




Well, I have been doing this for about 2 weeks now so take this with a grain of salt but I bought some stock in Sony - its up about 5% in just a couple days and still pretty far from where it was before the tsunami.

I believe most of the Japanese stocks or perhaps the EWJ Japanese ETF are pretty high risk high reward right now.

Nike took a big hit too, even when shoe orders have risen this past year - could be a decent buying opportunity.




Cool, I just dove, or rather slowly waded, into the market myself.  I'm just trying to set aside money and let it grow for now while a get a feel for market forces and all the many variables, so I'm slowly branching outward from a simple index fund.

I appreciate the advice, SNE has been on my watch list since the quake, I guess I've just been too chicken shit to pull the trigger, or maybe it's because I have the money for about 4 shares right now. hehe


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InvisibleDieCommie

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Re: Stock Update for March 21, 2011 - S&P, VZ, CSX [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #14164291 - 03/22/11 12:11 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

maybe it's because I have the money for about 4 shares right now. hehe




Man, at that level brokerage fees are gonna be much too high.  I have a hard time justifying a $14 fee on a order less than a $1000 and surly wouldn't spend it on a order less than $500.


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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Stock Update for March 21, 2011 - S&P, VZ, CSX [Re: DieCommie]
    #14164401 - 03/22/11 12:34 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

DieCommie said:
Quote:

maybe it's because I have the money for about 4 shares right now. hehe




Man, at that level brokerage fees are gonna be much too high.  I have a hard time justifying a $14 fee on a order less than a $1000 and surly wouldn't spend it on a order less than $500.




I feel ya. 

That's why I'm sticking with ETFs until I have a nice chunk to play with.  I take about half of my paycheck (roughly $500) and move it into my Scottrade account every pay period, so I usually increase my positions by that amount at the least.

it's frustrating because I see lots of nice opportunities out there, but it's just not worth the fees right now.  Once I rack up a few g's, I'll be caressing the fuck out of Wall Street's clitoris.

:discorex:


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for March 21, 2011 - S&P, VZ, CSX [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #14168704 - 03/23/11 08:11 AM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

The Ecstatic said:

I take about half of my paycheck (roughly $500) and move it into my Scottrade account every pay period, so I usually increase my positions by that amount at the least.

it's frustrating because I see lots of nice opportunities out there




Please remember that just because you move money into your brokerage account, does not imply that you should immediately put it to work.  There are times to be buying, times to be selling, and times to be doing nothing at all.  The market is in transition right now, and is progressing from being in a period of not doing much and trying to find a direction, to starting to hint that it may be time to start selling more aggressively because that direction appears to be to the downside.  There is weakness all over the place, and with what looks to be a failed bounce at the 50 day on the S&P (1300 level) as I have discussed in a prior update, we could leg down quite a bit farther, particularly if middle east tensions continue to drive the price of oil higher.

In the meanwhile, I am pretty much only exposed to high yielding or oil stocks on the long side at this time.  This morning, I added to my SPY April $129 Put positions, and also bought $75 puts on CSX as I had discussed in an earlier post.  The Verizon Put trade I also discussed was stopped out.  Frankly, I just don't see much of a catalyst to propel this market significantly higher at this point... and I am trading accordingly.


Positions (largest to smallest):

    57% CASH
    33% Long Stock: KMP, PSEC, NLY, RIG, AGNC, CPNO
    10% Long Put Options: AAPL Apr $340, SPY Apr $129, CSX Apr $75
    2% Long Call Options: PBR Jul $39, PBR Apr $35
    (-10%) Short Put Options: NLY Apr $18, AAPL Apr $345
    8% Long Unsecured Debt via LendingClub.com @ ~12.4% APY


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for March 21, 2011 - S&P, VZ, CSX [Re: geokills]
    #14168994 - 03/23/11 09:55 AM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Closed my AAPL Bull Put Spread for a 25% loss.  I believe in the company no doubt, but my options expire during the current month period and the stock is rolling over at its 50 day, well below my break-even point of $343.70.  With the market looking weak overall and the uncertainty of Steve Jobs' return to the company, I'm calling an audible and dumping this less I lose the entire value of the trade on the April 16th expiration.

Also, since DieCommie was asking about the high dividend agency backed REIT's, here's a good article for those who have thought about (or do) own these things: ABC's of Agency Mortgage REITS


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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Stock Update for March 21, 2011 - S&P, VZ, CSX [Re: geokills]
    #14169834 - 03/23/11 12:48 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
Quote:

The Ecstatic said:

I take about half of my paycheck (roughly $500) and move it into my Scottrade account every pay period, so I usually increase my positions by that amount at the least.

it's frustrating because I see lots of nice opportunities out there




Please remember that just because you move money into your brokerage account, does not imply that you should immediately put it to work.  There are times to be buying, times to be selling, and times to be doing nothing at all.  The market is in transition right now, and is progressing from being in a period of not doing much and trying to find a direction, to starting to hint that it may be time to start selling more aggressively because that direction appears to be to the downside.  There is weakness all over the place, and with what looks to be a failed bounce at the 50 day on the S&P (1300 level) as I have discussed in a prior update, we could leg down quite a bit farther, particularly if middle east tensions continue to drive the price of oil higher.

In the meanwhile, I am pretty much only exposed to high yielding or oil stocks on the long side at this time.  This morning, I added to my SPY April $129 Put positions, and also bought $75 puts on CSX as I had discussed in an earlier post.  The Verizon Put trade I also discussed was stopped out.  Frankly, I just don't see much of a catalyst to propel this market significantly higher at this point... and I am trading accordingly.


Positions (largest to smallest):

    57% CASH
    33% Long Stock: KMP, PSEC, NLY, RIG, AGNC, CPNO
    10% Long Put Options: AAPL Apr $340, SPY Apr $129, CSX Apr $75
    2% Long Call Options: PBR Jul $39, PBR Apr $35
    (-10%) Short Put Options: NLY Apr $18, AAPL Apr $345
    8% Long Unsecured Debt via LendingClub.com @ ~12.4% APY




Of course.

I was only implying that even a small percentage increase is a lot more meaningful at higher dollar amounts.

I agree that things might be pointing downward soon, I'm probably going to hedge my equities with some gold and/or silver in case inflation hits too hard.

My brokerage account consists of about 40% cash right now.  I have a nice handful of things on my watch list, but I'm trying to start this thing the right way and keep my discipline.


In other news, the Nikkei takes a hit, and SLV is up over 2%.  I knew I should've moved in when it dropped to 32 last week. We'll see how things play out...


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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Stock Update for March 21, 2011 - S&P, VZ, CSX [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #14169856 - 03/23/11 12:51 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Also, I have a friend who sticks to a certain asset allocation and swears on it.

This is it:

25% S&P Index Fund
25% Long Term Treasury Bonds
25% Gold
25% Cash

He re-balances every couple months.


Opinions on this?  He's got a nice steady return average over the last 25 years or so.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for March 21, 2011 - S&P, VZ, CSX [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #14170355 - 03/23/11 02:05 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

I don't know why anyone would be buying treasury bonds with the yields you get today.  For a low risk, hands off portfolio approach to those who are not expecting significant returns, the allocation you have presented is OK.  In fact, it looks like a great allocation if you're over 50 years old.  But I'm young and hungry, and that type of conservative approach just will not do for me.

In other news, amazing rebound in the market today.  What a goddamn frustrating thing!  Glad I'm keeping my positions small, 'cause this market is really tough to game and frankly, exhausting to trade.  We still closed on some very slight weakness even though the major averages are up.  I'm keying in on the fact that the Dow Jones Transports and the S&P both closed below their 50 day moving averages and in the case of the S&P specifically, below its down-trending resistance line starting at the 2/18 high, which currently zeros in at 1305.

So for now, I'm stickin' with my SPY and CSX puts.  CSX underperformed the market even though it received an analyst upgrade today.  That is a signal of weakness and I would expect this one to correct some more, especially if the aggregate market falls out of bed.  A positive GDP outlook later this week could throw a wrench in this thesis and blast us through 1305 on the S&P.  If we do close above 1305 this week, put positions will be closed and I will start to lean towards the long side again.  Until then, I'm still looking for more downside.


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* Helium Network [US]: Low Cost Mobile Service with ROI for Providing Distributed Connectivity geokillsA 206 0 01/21/24 10:48 AM
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* Pretty good interest on my savings, but best strat? skOsH 190 4 01/21/24 03:40 PM
by Bungmurphy

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