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Invisibleohmatic
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Re: Stock Update for March 2, 2011 - WFT, AMT [Re: geokills]
    #14064743 - 03/04/11 05:12 AM (12 years, 10 months ago)

how do you guys see apple develop ? will it break 400$ per share with the ipad2 and the new iphone coming this summer ?


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for March 2, 2011 - WFT, AMT [Re: ohmatic]
    #14065262 - 03/04/11 09:11 AM (12 years, 10 months ago)

It's good to see the 1000th post in this thread having to do with one of my favorite stocks and companies. :apple:


             

             


Oddly enough, I am not currently holding any AAPL, as I worry about the overhang from Steve Job's medical leave of absence.  That he has been seen publicly, at a recent dinner with President Obama (pictured above) and also at the iPad 2 announcement conference, is encouraging.  However, when Jobs dies, unless he has already expressed his intention to remove himself from Apple's day to day operations for good, will likely cast a shadow on this company's stock.  This is why I sold my fairly substantial position last month.

Nevertheless, for the growth rate that Apple boasts, in conjunction with the leadership position it has taken in its sector (which is a very hot sector to begin with), you aren't likely to go wrong with this stock and I would be surprised if the stock doesn't eclipse $400 in the near future.  They have a few tremendously popular products (iPhone, iPad, iPod - all tied into iTunes) and are taking share with their other products (Mac, AppleTV), benefit from economies of scale and unbelievably awesome management, and can beat almost any competitor's price point with a superior product.

If this stock gets back to its 50 day moving average, or eclipses its old high of $364.90, I will re-involve myself.  Until then, the stock is in a trading range between $340 - $365 and I will wait for a cue on future direction before adding the name back into my portfolio in any sizable fashion.  I do applaud their announcement that the new version of the iPad will be sold at the same price point.  It looks like a great product, and I'll probably end up buying one this year.



             


In other news, NFLX is bouncing off of its 50 day moving average (and the $200 support level) as I had anticipated yesterday.  Barring a severe market correction, I think this one has some more room to run.

I don't expect today to be a very eventful day in the market, and typically don't like to add new positions ahead of the weekend since you never know what kind of headlines will be coming out over the weekend.  The events transpiring in the Middle East and especially with regard to Saudi Arabia are certainly a cause for caution.


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Offlineben_dover0802
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Re: Stock Update for March 2, 2011 - WFT, AMT [Re: geokills]
    #14075835 - 03/06/11 02:16 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Just wanted to say right on Geo, I enjoy reading your updates.  I am just getting into the market now, and expect to follow much of your advice since I am still a market n00b.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for March 2, 2011 - WFT, AMT [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #14079955 - 03/07/11 08:03 AM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Happy to hear you're getting something out of this!

My best advice to all new investors/traders is to embrace the idea that you don't need to be involved in the market all the time.
  • Be patient and opportunistic, and never attempt to force a trade.
  • Trade the market that is in front of you, not the market that you wish or hope were in front of you!
  • Always define your risk / maximum loss before opening a new position, and adhere to that discipline.
  • Learn to manage risk through the religious use of position sizing and stop loss management.
  • Learn to differentiate between your longer term positions, and short-term trading positions.
  • Discipline trumps conviction.
  • Hope is NOT a strategy.
  • Don't be afraid to take a loss as soon as your original thesis for a specific trade is proven wrong.
  • Don't be afraid to give your winners room to run, but continually re-define stop loss levels to protect profit.
  • Don't rely on one resource; Gather information and data from multiple sources.
  • Read some books: Jim Cramer's Real Money, John Bollinger's Bollinger on Bollinger Bands


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Re: Stock Update for March 2, 2011 - WFT, AMT [Re: geokills]
    #14080419 - 03/07/11 11:13 AM (12 years, 10 months ago)

see someone i know went into apple with a good amount of money 2 weeks ago,
it would be bad it it crashes somehow and today i read some mayor funds sell off
their apple stock awwww :frown:


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for March 2, 2011 - WFT, AMT [Re: ohmatic]
    #14081450 - 03/07/11 02:34 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Well if your friend got in on or after the 22nd of February, he's fine (so far).

The market is very choppy now that we are in the midst of a consolidation phase.  This type of action can drive a trader crazy, so unless you're just looking for quick scalps or are very slowly building a longer term position, it's probably best to stand aside until we gain more clarity.

I implemented a bull put spread last Friday on Apple, where I sold the April $345 put and bought the April $340 put for a net credit of $125 per contract.  Because the amount of money I got for selling the April $345's was greater than the April $340's, I will get to pocket the entire difference IF Apple stock is above $345 at the time of the April expiration.  If Apple falls below $345, I am at least limiting my risk by owning the April $340 put, so that in the worst case scenario I won't have to take losses beyond the $340 level on Apple stock.  Because the 50 day moving average is currently around $344, has reliably held as support, and is up-trending; it seems reasonable to believe that Apple stock will be above $345 at the time of April expiration.

Been gettin' jigged out of a lot of positions lately.  NFLX had a pretty disgusting day today, and I sold my call options for a 20% gain about 90 minutes after the open, although I could have bagged a 50% gain if I'd been paying enough attention to see the stock "gap and crap" right at the open this morning.  I may get back into this thing tomorrow, but I will need to see evidence of strong buying coming in.  This market is short term just way too choppy to make any big anticipatory bets.


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InvisibleShins
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Re: Stock Update for March 2, 2011 - WFT, AMT [Re: geokills]
    #14081472 - 03/07/11 02:40 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

They passed some law in Canada just recently where they allowed Internet service providers to "meter" the internet on high-use customers.

AKA customers who use Netflix get charged "pay as you go" by their ISP.

Some have theorized that it's a ruse by the cable companies to suppress Netflix in Canada,

I would imagine This would add downward pressure to the NFLX stock?

It's sad because Netflix is awesome.


I'm just kinda wondering if you're aware of that, and what you think about it Geo?


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for March 2, 2011 - WFT, AMT [Re: Shins]
    #14081519 - 03/07/11 02:48 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

I was not aware of that, though that type of news would certainly play into the valuation and expectations for Netflix, dependent upon the cost and limits of the proposed bandwidth metering.  The relevant question that must be first answered in efforts to determine how great of an affect this could have on NFLX stock, is how large of a percentage of Netflix's member base resides in Canada?  If Canadian customers do not contribute a significant portion of NFLX revenue, then the issue shouldn't hold much bearing on the stock's price action.


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Re: Stock Update for March 2, 2011 - WFT, AMT [Re: geokills]
    #14081791 - 03/07/11 03:31 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

That's pretty much my thoughts.

Here's an article;

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/story/2010/05/06/crtc-usage-based-billing-internet.html


Apparently the Conservative government has said it wants to overturn the ruling, so i guess is pretty up in the air right now.


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Offlinetherapist
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Re: Stock Update for March 2, 2011 - WFT, AMT [Re: Shins]
    #14083189 - 03/07/11 07:23 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

hey geo, i'm apparently getting an inheritance check for $15-25,000 dollars in a few months.  obviously it would be wise to invest most of that money, but what would be the best strategy for a college student such as myself?

i figured that i would put 5-10,000 into mutual funds (haven't decided on sectors yet) and maybe play around with 3,000 more doing actual trades day-to-day.  what's a good ratio of long-term gainers to short-term profit-getters?  am i even on the right track?  i don't really know much, just what i've gathered from this thread and talking to a few old dudes at work.  any help would be appreciated!


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for March 2, 2011 - WFT, AMT [Re: therapist]
    #14085683 - 03/08/11 08:43 AM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Your individual trading strategy will be just that, an individual strategy.  There is no strategy that will suit all investors.  If it were that easy, we'd all be rich!  You must weigh your level of capital commitment (how much money can you comfortably set aside for investing and for how long?), the amount of time and interest you have in actively managing your money, as well as your risk tolerance (how much day to day fluctuation in portfolio value can you stomach without panicking?).

Some of those questions you probably won't have a reliable answer for immediately, so I would suggest that once you receive your money, do yourself a favor and sit on a good portion of it.  If you want to try actively managing it for yourself, start with just $5000 and use that capital for several months before you fully commit yourself.  During this time, you will build your understanding of investing and learn more about your own personal psychology with respect to your individual investor profile.  It's easy to have a few trades go well, think you're a genius and harbor thoughts like "wow I can't believe how fast I'm going to be a millionaire!", and then pile all your money into something that ultimately might break your account - believe me, I've been there!

Unless you are unbelievably lucky, trading over any appreciable length of time is not easy.  It takes commitment and stringent discipline to perform well over the span of a lifetime.  You'll also notice that your trading style is likely to change several times over.  While you are young, you will likely find yourself taking on greater risk than as you grow older.  You'll also deal with periods of emotional confusion where you could literally be paralyzed, panicky or (on the flip side) tremendously overconfident as a result of the interplay between fear and greed.

In order to become a successful investor, you must learn the fundamentally cyclical nature of investing.  Watch the market, teach yourself how the market tends to react to events both geopolitical and financial.  When you find that you feel comfortably in sync with the market, start to place your bets.  Equally as important as understanding the market fundamentals is to understand your own emotions.  How often I've let a good trade go bad because of my own gut wrenching emotions that always attempt to justify the world in front of me, to my favor.  News flash!  The world doesn't always work in one's favor and you simply aren't as smart as you might think you are.  One key to being a good investor is to quickly acknowledge when your thesis is wrong (don't attempt to rationalize a sudden change in your thesis in order to keep yourself in any given investment), simply get out and await the next opportunity.

Just remember that those who last in this game focus a lot more on the downside risk (how much money do I stand to lose?), rather than on the upside potential (how much money am I going to make?).  Protect your capital, guard it, know how much you stand to lose before you ever enter a trade.  Risk management is the only reliable way to survive in this market.  If you can effectively manage your risk and you stay involved, the upside will take care of itself.


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NFLX

Since we've been talking about Netflix (NFLX) over the last few posts... I should note that Facebook just announced that they have reached an agreement with Warner Entertainment to distribute one of those Batman movies.  While this is still in its early stages, Facebook has a tremendous member base, a large portion of which is very familiar with streaming video and probably uses Netflix already, and so I perceive this is a fairly significant threat.  Coupled with AMZN's plans to offer free video streaming to Amazon Prime members, not to mention competition from other pay-per-view formats such as Apple's iTunes, and I think the glory days for NFLX have peaked.  The stock is down some 4% this morning, struggling to hold the $200 level and is now below its 50 day moving average.  Lots of uncertainty here, and as such, I do not plan to involve myself in this name right here, right now.  For aggressive traders, I would be more inclined to short NFLX than to buy it, as it looks like it's on its way to test $175 (a 12% drop from the current price).


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Offlinetherapist
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Re: Stock Update for March 2, 2011 - WFT, AMT [Re: geokills]
    #14092733 - 03/09/11 01:58 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

thanks for taking the time to type that out, i'll keep that mantra in mind: manage risk well, and the profits will take care of themselves.  i should have been more specific, i suppose, when i asked what a good strategy would be.  i'm familiar with the "sell high, buy low" adage, but it can't be that easy.  i suppose i have to figure it out for myself though like everyone else!


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Re: Stock Update for March 2, 2011 - WFT, AMT [Re: therapist]
    #14095492 - 03/09/11 10:43 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Warren Buffett RE: Market evaluation quote from "The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America

Ben Graham, my friend and teacher, long ago described the mental attitude toward market fluctuations that I believe to be most conducive to investment success. He said that you should imagine market quotations as coming from a remarkably accommodating fellow named Mr. Market who is your partner in private business. Without fail, Mr. Market appears daily and names a price at which he will either buy your interest or sell you his.

Even though the business that the two of you own may have economic characteristics that are stable, Mr. Market's quotations will be anything but. For, sad to say, the poor fellow has incurable emotional problems. At times he feel euphoric and can see only the favorable factors affecting the business. When in that mood he names a very high buy-sell price because he fears that you will snap up his interest and rob him of imminent gains. At other times he is depressed and can see nothing but trouble ahead for both the business and the world. On these occasions he will name a very low price, since he is terrified that you will unload your interest on him.

Mr. Market has another endearing characteristic; he doesn't mind being ignored. If his quotation is uninteresting to you today, he will be back with a new one tomorrow. Transactions are strictly at your option. Under these conditions, the more manic-depressive his behavior, the better for you.

But, like Cinderella at the ball, you must head one warning or everything will turn to pumpkins and mice: Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you. It is his pocketbook, not his wisdom, that you will find useful. If he shows up some day in a particularly foolish mood, you are free to either ignore him or take advantage of him, but it will be disasterous if you fall under his influence. Indeed, if you aren't certain, that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market you don't belong in the game. As they say in poker, "If you've been in the game 30 minutes and you don't know who the patsy is you're the patsy."

Robert Webster


Edited by wubester (03/09/11 10:48 PM)


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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Stock Update for March 2, 2011 - WFT, AMT [Re: wubester]
    #14105529 - 03/11/11 07:16 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

took a small position in Ford (F) earlier.  Here we go.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for March 14, 2011 - SPX, Japan [Re: geokills]
    #14123481 - 03/15/11 02:06 AM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Ladies and gentlemen... It's crunch time.





Keeping a very close eye on the events of the Middle East over the past several weeks, now witnessing the horror of destruction that has fallen upon the Japanese island nation; it is clear that there are a lot of risks - a lot of uncertainty in the world today.  While I have been harping on the necessity of caution and taking a step back in the midst of this uncertain consolidation in the markets, I wasn't ready to be aggressively bearish until today.  From the chart above, one can see that the S&P has been struggling to hold its 50 day moving average, and has now definitively broken beneath it, while the bollinger bands also indicate a volatility expansion to the downside.

While ultimately, I believe that the crisis out of Japan can actually create a lot of economic productivity on account of the re-building process (CAT stands to be a beneficiary); the issue surrounding their nuclear power plants is of incredibly grave concern.  Conjoined with the technical damage that the S&P has sustained, here is what I have done.

  • Bought April $10 Put options on the EWJ
    This is a Japan based ETF, the 10th largest component of which is Tokyo Electric Power Company which operates the Fukushima Daini power station that is in literal danger of "melting down".  Even though the EWJ opened up sharply lower today, and even though I believe this crisis can potentially spur growth in Japan long term, the country is going to be dealing with incredible almost apocalyptic infrastructure damage near term.  I think there is some serious downside potential here, particularly if the nuclear situation continues to worsen.

  • Bought April $127 Put options on the SPY
    As discussed above, the decisive break of the 50 day moving average of the S&P 500 in conjunction with continued Middle East and now Japanese uncertainty lends further pressure on this major index ETF.  I actually put this position on last Friday when I noted the bollinger bands expanding to the downside and realized that there would be some serious headline news risk given the Japan situation and Bahrain / Saudi situation.  Frankly, there are a lot of bad things going on that can conceivably get even worse.

  • Bought April $34 Put options on VZ
    While it was only last week that I was long Verizon call options in anticipation of an upside breakout on good sales of iPads and new iPhone customers to the Verizon network, the volatility squeeze (period of tight consolidation) has now decisively broken to the downside.  While not a guarantee of furhter downside, volume was above average and the stock closed below the lower bollinger band pretty significantly.  I am expecting a minimum near term downside to $34.35.

  • Bought April $195 Put options on NFLX
    Another name that only a week ago I was long call options (and even booked some profits!). Netflix broke through its 50 day moving average on a combination of news from Amazon and Facebook, generally indicating new and potentially formidable competition entering the sector Netflix has enjoyed dominating for a few years.  Because the stock over the last couple of days rallied back up to the 50 day moving average and today rejected a further move higher, closing below the 50 day; I believe the 50 day is now formidable resistance and can be used to define upside risk, while shorting the stock (or, as I have here, buying put options).


TO NOTE:  This market is a chop shop.  While I believe there is some near term downside, crisis breeds opportunity and thus I also believe that one shouldn't overstay their welcome on any trade in this environment.  Generally, the near term trend appears down.  However, the longer term trend is still higher.  Therefore, one must be mindful that this period is likely to be higher in volatility and thus fairly frustrating to trade.  Pick your winners and watch them for attractive entries with easily discernible support levels.  Otherwise, just be patient and wait for the opportunity to present itself.  Those who take a longer term approach, watch the high yielders for an opportunity to bag a sweet dividend.  Here's a list to get you started: AGNC ALSK ANH AOD BDJ BGY BKCC BOE BTA CIM CMU CNSL CYS EIP EOD EOI EOS ETJ ETW ETY EVEP EXG FMY FSC FTR GGN HJV HTS HTY IGA IRR IVR LGCY LINE MAIN MFA MHI NLY NRF PR.B OTT PKH PKJ PMM PNNT PPT PSEC PYA PYS SRV TCAP TICC TWO VGM VGR VMO VNR VPV WEA WIN


Current positions (largest to smallest):

    59% CASH
    30% Long Stock: KMP, PSEC, NLY, RIG, CPNO, AMT
    8% Long Options: EWJ Apr $10 Put, SPY Apr $127 Put, PBR Apr $35 Call, VZ Apr $34 Put, NFLX Apr $195 Put, AAPL Apr $340 Put
    (-5%) Short Options: AAPL Apr $345 Put, NLY Apr $18 Put
    8% Peer-to-Peer Unsecured Debt via LendingClub.com @ 12.4% APY


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for March 15, 2011 - SPX, EWJ, DO, CAT, CRUS [Re: geokills]
    #14124070 - 03/15/11 08:20 AM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Boy, did I get lucky.  Won't begrudge luck, ever!  Market got beaten down this morning on trading so heavy it sometimes took me over a minute to fill an online order (on a normal day only taking a couple of seconds).  I have now closed all short related positions, including Puts in EWJ and VZ for near 100% returns overnight.  Closed my SPY puts for a 50% gain.  Also had to close NFLX puts (stopped out automatically) for a 22% loss as that stock shows uncanny strength in peaking back above its 200 day moving average, up 3% in a down 2.5% market!  That's huge outperformance.



Now, to focus on long side opportunity amidst this panic selling.  Diamond Offshore (DO) has retreated to the 200 day moving average.


   


These guys were a big driller in the gulf, but after the BP incident and the moratorium on gulf drilling, they didn't waste time in moving their ships out of the gulf and to greener pastures.  This smart move is likely to benefit the company long term (as will the excruciatingly high price of oil).  Technically, the stock is at a support level it's been carving out for a few days, coinciding with consolidation right on the 50 and 200 day moving averages.  Bought a couple of April $70 calls in anticipation of a bounce off of this level and a bit of a run higher over the next few weeks.

Also took some plain ol' stock in Caterpiller (CAT), the heavy machinery company.  Japan is going to need a lot of this stuff (and I mean A LOT).  CAT is positioned well to ramp up production in order to satisfy the increased demand on account of the destruction over there.  The stock is still a bit extended above its 200 day and if the market continues to break down to the 1200 level on the S&P, better entries should be a given.  This is why I buying the stock outright, to keep track of it, instead of loading up with levered calls right here, right now.

All in all, a very exciting morning.  Due to existing long positions that were taken down with the rest of the market this morning, my portfolio is slightly higher (about 1%), but that's huge on a day that sees the market open down nearly 3%.


My bull put spread on AAPL is a bit concerning amidst this weakness, as APPL has opened decisively below its 50 day moving average this morning.  Thankfully, there is still more time to let this options spread play out.  I am watching an ancillary play in Cirrus Logic (CRUS), a specialized chip maker that is heavily used in Apple's mobile products (iPhone/iPad).  I think these products are going to continue selling like hot cakes and thus CRUS will be selling lots of its components for them.  The stock is down 6% this morning and at an identifiable short term support level.  Considering selling some March $20 Puts, as if the stock falls below $20 on Friday, I'll have to buy 100 shares per contract, but if the stock stays above $20 for the remainder of the week (currently at $20.68), the puts expire worthless and I get to keep the premium.  However, since I don't seem to be getting a fill at $0.50 or better, I've instead opted to buy June $22.50 calls, which are far enough out that they won't be markedly affected by the near term volatility.  That will give the stock three months to move higher off of what I expect to be blow out iPad sales.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for March 15, 2011 - SPX, EWJ, DO, CAT, CRUS [Re: geokills]
    #14124339 - 03/15/11 09:53 AM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Because I have benefited by taking an opportunistic approach to the unbelievably tragic crisis in Japan,
I am donating directly to the Japanese Red Cross Society.  You can also click here to donate.

If you can help these people in any way whatsoever, please do.
We all share this planet and on some level we are all family.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/events/japan-quake-2011/beforeafter.htm


   


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Re: Stock Update for March 15, 2011 - SPX, EWJ, DO, CAT, CRUS [Re: geokills]
    #14124950 - 03/15/11 01:33 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Nice move Geokill - Profit and karma gains.. 
I just opened my online brokerage account a couple weeks ago and would have to do another agreement to be able to buy options... I think ill probably stick with long stock for the time being.

I put most of what I did invest in an index fund and that isn't doing too well over the past two weeks, but hopefully it rebounds soon.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for March 15, 2011 - SPX, EWJ, DO, CAT, CRUS [Re: ben_dover0802]
    #14125122 - 03/15/11 02:09 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

I had personally managed my own stock portfolio for several years before I bought even a single option contract.  Until you have a solid foundation of understanding for stocks and how they tend to move, it would be incredibly reckless to invest in stock derivatives that use leverage to compound both gains and losses with incredible speed.  It is not uncommon for some options to move more than 100% on any given trading day.  Particularly with options, risk management is paramount, as you can lose significant chunks of your trading capital on just one poorly managed short-term trade.

Learn to ski before attempting the Olympic ski jump!  You might land it on a miracle, but most will break bones or worse.


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Offlineben_dover0802
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Re: Stock Update for March 15, 2011 - SPX, EWJ, DO, CAT, CRUS [Re: geokills]
    #14125347 - 03/15/11 02:53 PM (12 years, 10 months ago)

Advice taken.... I think I even got a little too hurried to buy shares of an ETF (not index mutual actually), and got them at a bad time.

My reasoning was I was tired of getting .1% interest from my bank so an already diversified fund would be a better option. I am still very optimistic this will prove true in the long run, but I jumped the gun in the short run, bought near that weeks peak, could/should have found a better starting spot.


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