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imachavel
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Re: Discount Online Brokers [Re: geokills]
#13961037 - 02/14/11 12:31 PM (12 years, 11 months ago) |
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wow geo, thanks for the great advice.
sorry, i didn't mean micro technology. lol. I had an uncle who worked at intel, so it's funny I KNOW what micro technology is. and as you'd expect micro technology isn't doing as bad as you'd think right now. I mean computer prices(you are on one right now aren't you?) haven't dropped too heavily. in fact if you are a tech you tell me, has a techs life become easier with the dropping economy? have computer prices become cheaper?
lol
i MEANT nano technology, I heard there is a large investment going into them right now. but then what you have you heard that is a house hold name right now that involves nano technology? nothing. so investing hundreds of millions is one thing, but then seeing people buying and selling the stock is something else. Still I'd buy a share or two if I thought it might take off, long as I'm not losing more than a hundred dollars if it doesn't.
thanks once again for the great advice. I guess safe way isn't a great place to buy stock, but man I sure would want to own one. IMAGINE the money you'd get in just a year, even if it's not a million, hey, who cares, still could have a nice lunch on what you'd make.
I was thinking of getting an account on etrade looking at the etf, eld, etc. and then maybe when I've gazed at the ticker with natural gas or silver and gold I'll come back here with some more questions.
thanks again
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The Ecstatic
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Re: Discount Online Brokers [Re: imachavel]
#13961694 - 02/14/11 02:45 PM (12 years, 11 months ago) |
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who's shorting gold?
Once I get myself going, I plan to diversify into a precious metal, but I'm not sure if I've missed the boat on gold (or silver for that matter).
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imachavel
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http://www.commodityonline.com/futures-trading/technical/Comex-Gold-weaker-amid-stronger-US-Dollar;-better-investor-risk-appetite-21919.html
i hope I didn't say anyone was shorting it. or that I come across acting as though I really know.
no one knows for sure. it's raised in value quite a bit since the economic crash. also, some people say it will continue to raise quite a bit. also, people are saying the dollar is increasing in value.
to be honest if people think only investing in penny stock is comparable to gambling, they count me out on agreeing with their opinion. lol, it's all gambling and betting to me
it's not as though I really know, best I luck.
please don't forget to mention the fundamental and resistance levels. not saying you haven't, but just don't get me too confused with the technical levels. Believe me I'm interested I know the technical levels make up the long term fundementals, just that I'm not planning to sell any of this off at the end of the day.
here is a report for rackspace (rax):
http://research1.ml.com/C?q=kObWeyQeMGU6UiCojdLh-w__&s=lopech
it's cloud computing, right now nothing major, but expecting it to rise insanely in the next 10 years. I'm going to buy some shares of this, gold, and maybe a few shares of natural gas. yes, I know natural gas is risky, but I'm probably right now buying a total net worth of $200 worth of shares, so I won't be losing anything major here. Thanks
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I did not say to edit my signature soulidarity! Now forever I will never remember what I said about understanding the secrets of the universe by paying attention to subtleties!
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Edited by imachavel (02/15/11 11:02 AM)
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geokills
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Options Update for February 15, 2011 - MMI, NLY, C [Re: geokills]
#13966912 - 02/15/11 10:59 AM (12 years, 11 months ago) |
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Market is finally taking a little bit of a break today. This is good, as the faster a market goes up in a straight line, the harder it will ultimately correct. Some measure of ebb and flow as we generally grind higher is nice as it helps to reduce the likelihood of a rapid and major move lower that is, well, downright scary, and thus more likely to shake you out of a longer term good position!
I wouldn't have thought there would be much to do today, but a few opportunities have cropped up...

I noticed that I was stopped out of my placeholder position in Motorola Mobility (MMI) this morning as the stock made a new all time low (it's only been trading for a couple of months). Fortunately, the new low was only $0.11 lower than the original low and the stock promptly started to rebound. Because of this apparently successful re-test of the previous low, I bought some longer dated call options, the July $35 calls. This type of position gives me the right, but not the obligation, to buy MMI stock at $35 on or before the July 16th expiration. Therefore, if MMI does start to move higher anytime between now and then, the July $35 call option price will also appreciate in value. Since MMI is releasing some interesting products over the next couple of months, I think it is likely to receive some buying support in anticipation of the launches. The calls are already up over 5% from where I bought them this morning, and I will not hesitate to close half of the position for some serious profits if and when MMI tests overhead resistance at around $32.25. Because these calls are "out of the money", that is, the "strike" price of the call option ($35) is above the current share price ($28.57), there is no intrinsic value to the option, only time value. As a result, even if MMI trades slightly lower, the option is not going to be hit as hard as an "in the money" option which would be losing both time value and intrinsic value. As a feature of risk management, if MMI closes at new lows, I will sell these calls for a small loss and focus on the next opportunity.
Annaly Capital Management (NLY), a real estate investment trust (REIT), sports better than a 14% annual dividend yield. I have held a position in this name since their last secondary share offering, which is the process by which they issue and sell new shares of stock to raise money for future growth and/or to pay down existing debt. These share offerings are dilutive to existing shareholders, which is why the stock sells off when they are priced (such as happened today). However, if you observe the last few times NLY has done this, their stock has been carving out a well defined support level above $17 and has typically taken about a month to recover back up to $18. The stock has tested $17 and recovered to $18 three times over the last six months, so I imagine that this time should be no different. Because of the large dividend, there is a lot of underlying support (since as the share price decreases, the dividend yield on a percentage basis increases). Also because of the large dividend, I don't mind adding to my position.
But rather than buy the stock outright, I have instead opted to sell the April $18 put options. I sold these for a credit of $1.20 per share (corresponding to $120 per contract). If NLY does recover up to $18 by the April expiration, I will get to keep that $120 per contract as the put option will expire worthless. Even if NLY only starts to recover, I can peel off a part of the position by buying back the puts at a lower cost in order to reduce my risk, in case I feel that the stock may not make it all the way to $18 by the time of the April expiration. If NLY is below $18 at the time of expiration, the person I sold the puts to can "put" the stock to me at $18 a share. Therefore, I have to be very sure that I only sell as many put contracts, as corresponds to the maximum number shares of NLY that I feel comfortable buying at $18 a pop. I'm also mindful that NLY's next support level is down between $15 - $16, so I should only sell as many puts, as corresponds to the maximum number of shares of NLY that I feel comfortable buying at $18 even if the stock is down at $15 (an immediate 16.6% loss if the shares are put to me when NLY trades at $15). I normally would not sell a naked put option like this, except for the fact that I don't mind owning more NLY stock (even at a higher price), since I plan on hanging onto this monster dividend payer anyway, simply for the income/cash flow that the dividend provides, and not necessarily for the share price appreciation.

Last up is Citigroup (C). As a taxpayer, you've already owned a lot of this stock thanks to the government bailouts. However, you might want to think about actually owning some in your personal account now that shares have been stabilizing just under $5, all while the 50 day moving average has come up to meet the price and the bollinger bands (a measure of volatility) have started to squeeze quite nicely. I own stock and options on C, and just the other day added to my April $4.50 call options. To review, these give me the right, but not the obligation to buy Citigroup stock at $4.50 a share on or before the April 16th expiration date of the option contract. Because Citigroup is already above the $4.50 "strike" price, that makes these call options "in the money", which means that they have intrinsic value (the difference of the current share price minus the option's strike price), as well as time value (time value diminishes as you near the option's expiration date). As we saw with Patriot Coal (PCX), a volatility squeeze at the 50 day moving average can lead to a truly explosive reaction in share price. Citigroup is clearly not going out of business (the government wouldn't let it!), so I think this is a good stock for even a beginning investor to take a crack at. You can buy the stock right here, with a stop below the recent support level of $4.72 (which risks about 3% if you buy at the current share price of $4.88). If the volatility squeeze turns into an expansion to the upside, I would expect Citigroup to have little trouble breaking through the previous high of $5.15 set last month. In fact, I have price alerts set to notify me if we do get above $5, as I will be likely to aggressively add to my call options to capture the upside momentum of the volatility expansion that would be taking place.
Positions (largest to smallest):
51% Long Stock: KMP, RIG, PSEC, AAPL, NLY, TBT, C, ARCC, CPNO, WM, AMT 36% Cash 8% Long Unsecured Peer to Peer Debt via LendingClub.com @ ~12.44% APY 5% Options Exposure: Long PBR Apr $35 call, UNP Mar $100 call, BG Apr $75 call, GS Apr $170 call, MMI Jul $35 call, C Apr $4.50 call, AMZN Feb $165 Put Short NLY Apr $18 put, AMZN Feb $170 put
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imachavel
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Re: Options Update for February 15, 2011 - MMI, NLY, C [Re: geokills]
#13966966 - 02/15/11 11:09 AM (12 years, 11 months ago) |
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thanks geo, lol about citi group being we already owned it since obama bailed them out with our tax money
anyway good findings:
http://rcr.ml.com/Archive/11019661.pdf?q=0uvjd7K4hVfGZcSjAjMkDA__&__gda__=1297793091_23c193a215889ada862e30f996401855
there is a report for rack space: rax
it's cloud computing, right now extremely volatile, I'll bet it would go up though over the next 15 years quite a bit. like I said I'm not so much giving speculative technical analysis, but fundamental
short term I wouldn't waste my breath on it
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geokills
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Re: Options Update for February 15, 2011 - MMI, NLY, C [Re: imachavel]
#13969338 - 02/15/11 06:22 PM (12 years, 11 months ago) |
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The cloud computing sector has a very bright future and getting involved with the related companies that operate in the space is definitely a good idea. I would focus on Salesforce.com, EMC, and Riverbed. I know it sounds nice to buy some podunk company no one has heard of (note: I'm not talking about Rackspace, instead referencing this post of yours) and strike it rich when they break out, but here's the problem... the vast majority of those no name companies end up failing, and if you stick around in their stocks, you will probably end up failing too.
On the other hand, the more mature companies already have a headstart in the industry, and because cloud computing as a sector is still young, they should still have a LOT of room to grow and benefit from their leadership position. Case in point, Salesforce.com (CRM) has tripled in the last year and a half. EMC (EMC) has doubled. And Riverbed (RVBD) has quadrupled in that same time span. I've been in and out of EMC and RVBD over this time, but honestly, it was MY BAD for not staying involved in these names and highlighting them more frequently in my updates. EMC remains the most reasonably priced, but it's not necessarily where the majority of the momentum money has been going.
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imachavel
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Re: Options Update for February 15, 2011 - MMI, NLY, C [Re: geokills]
#13969387 - 02/15/11 06:30 PM (12 years, 11 months ago) |
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awesome!
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geokills
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Stock Update for February 24, 2011 - AMT [Re: geokills]
#14020900 - 02/24/11 04:33 PM (12 years, 11 months ago) |
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It's been a doozy of a week what with the turmoil coming out of the Middle East bringing to surface renewed fears of global instability with a focus on oil prices in particular, as Libya is the 19th largest oil producing country and the situation there is likely not to end anywhere near as neatly as Egypt did in preserving their regime. Unlike Egypt, the military in Libya is not united; allegiances are instead tied to local tribal circles, not the government nor the aggregate population. Because oil assets are decisively split between the west and the east of the country with not much but desert in between, this leaves both income and strategic target opportunities for two sides to potentially engage in a prolonged civil war after the fall of the current regime.
More significant, the monarchy of Bahrain is currently engaging talks with the opposition and appears likely to empower the opposition by making some concessions. 70% of Bahrain's population is Shia, which holds implications for both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. If the opposition in Bahrain receives concessions from the government, it will embolden the Shia opposition in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Saudi Arabia is an extremely important oil supplier to the entire world, and Kuwait holds strategic military importance to the US.
Because of these uncertainties, the risk profile of the market has increased dramatically since last week, and I have accordingly reduced my exposure to the market significantly (only holding a handful of high yielding stocks and not much else). However, as the market has undergone a fairly severe and unrelenting pullback over the past three sessions, it seems likely that we are due for a relief rally in the near future. How far such a relief rally will go is anybody's guess, but I won't be banking on the same rapid recovery as we have seen during practically every other pullback over the past year. Instead, I am looking for some prolonged consolidation between 1275 - 1340 on the S&P.
With that in mind, and with the idea of a relief rally in mind, I have been trying to find opportunities to put some of my money back to work but frankly, there is still a lot of risk out there and I am having trouble finding a lot of convincing high probability, low risk trades right here right now.
There is however one that I found, and it's American Tower (AMT):

This company owns cell phone towers all over the US, that it then rents space on to the carriers (ATT, Verizon, et al) in order for those carriers to mount their network transmission devices. Due to the rapid and increasing adoption of smart phones which utilize significantly more data transmission than older cell phones, carriers will need to continue expanding their network capacity. American Tower is in a strong position to continue to benefit from this trend.
Moreover, as you can see from the chart above, the company's stock recently started to expand to the upside in early February. The stock has subsequently fallen hard and fast to come back down to test the breakout level, which is also where the 50 day moving average has risen to. The company produced a good earnings report yesterday, but the stock continued to selloff amidst aggregate market pressures. Today however shows the stock posting a higher low (right on the 50 day moving average), and continuing to move higher throughout the day, outperforming the S&P 500 by about 2%.
This relative strength, in conjunction with a good fundamental thesis for the company and an easily identifiable definition of support (just below yesterday's intraday low of $51.32), led me to buy some April $52.50 call options. These give me the right, but not the obligation to buy AMT stock at $52.50 on or before the April expiration (third friday of the month). Because each option contract controls 100 shares of stock, this is a highly leveraged way to benefit from a resumption of AMT's uptrend following the gnarly pullback we've seen over the last week and a half. And if the stock moves against me, I will know it as soon as the price breaks below $51.32 and I can sell my call options for only a small loss.
If you are not comfortable with options, you could just buy the stock outright, as this type of stock does not tend to have rapid moves, and fundamentally over the next several years the company should benefit tremendously from the wireless network build-out necessitated by increased data usage from smart phones, tablet computers and the like. In fact, I own the stock myself as well, but chose to use the power of leverage through options right here because I really like the short-term setup.
In closing, there is a lot more uncertainty on the table now and investors would do well to recognize that the market environment has changed a great deal from last week. Wait for a stock to show you a well defined support level before taking on any risk in this environment, and don't hesitate to cut loose any position if it starts to move against your original thesis. Don't try to be a hero, instead preserve your capital for only the best (high probability / low risk) opportunities!
Positions (from largest to smallest):
60% Cash 30% Long Stock: KMP, PSEC, NLY, RIG, CPNO, AMT 8% Long Unsecured Peer to Peer Debt via LendingClub.com @ 12.4% APY 3% Long Options: AMT April $52.50 calls, MMI July $35 calls, PBR April $35 calls -0.6% Short Options: NLY April $18 puts
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imachavel
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Re: Stock Update for February 24, 2011 - AMT [Re: geokills]
#14022354 - 02/24/11 08:37 PM (12 years, 11 months ago) |
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cool. yes, it did drop down pretty far recently though, which isn't a good sign. if you say they are reputable and will most likely go up maybe you are right, because otherwise that is a HUGE drop. ANY way, a few stocks have tumbled in the last few weeks, seems to be a recent activity for quite a few companies, don't know what the last few weeks have meant, but I'd think the recession was continuing except that there are some companies doing quite well.
crm took a beating
rax took a beating
gld etf took a beating
however here are some stocks that did quite well, for the technical analyst:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/market/top10hot.asp
for the fundamental analyst:
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/07/01/midway-report-card-the-best-stocks-of-2010.aspx
THANKS
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I did not say to edit my signature soulidarity! Now forever I will never remember what I said about understanding the secrets of the universe by paying attention to subtleties!
I'm never giving you the password again. Jerk
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teknix
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Re: Stock Update for March 12, 2008 - NLY [Re: imachavel]
#14040688 - 02/28/11 08:19 AM (12 years, 10 months ago) |
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Does you guys use e-trade or any similar apps?
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for March 12, 2008 - NLY [Re: teknix]
#14041095 - 02/28/11 10:36 AM (12 years, 10 months ago) |
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See this post for some commentary on the brokers.
In other news, I'm still keeping my positioning quite light, but I did pick up some April Call Options on Verizon (VZ) and Bunge (BG) in respect of the strong close on Friday that has thus far this morning, continued its upward momentum. Resistance lies close overhead however, and as previously noted, I believe we'll probably be stuck in a consolidation/trading range for a little while here. Therefore, you should not be an aggressive buyer (i.e. do not chase), but rather only buy when you are lucky enough to catch the best entries closest to support.
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teknix
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Re: Stock Update for March 12, 2008 - NLY [Re: geokills]
#14041255 - 02/28/11 11:12 AM (12 years, 10 months ago) |
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ty. Have you tried e-trade? They seem to have pretty impressive introductory rates.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for March 12, 2008 - NLY [Re: teknix]
#14047641 - 03/01/11 09:52 AM (12 years, 10 months ago) |
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I have not personally used E*trade, but I believe it is likely comparable to TDAmeritrade. Ythan (founder of this website), has used E*trade for several years so there must be something to it!
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Ythan
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Re: Stock Update for March 12, 2008 - NLY [Re: geokills]
#14047805 - 03/01/11 10:29 AM (12 years, 10 months ago) |
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For what it's worth, I just use their bank, and these days only as a hub for transferring money between other accounts. Can't really comment on them one way or another.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for March 12, 2008 - NLY [Re: Ythan]
#14047892 - 03/01/11 10:48 AM (12 years, 10 months ago) |
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Rodger, dodger.
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The Ecstatic
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Re: Stock Update for March 12, 2008 - NLY [Re: geokills]
#14048325 - 03/01/11 12:42 PM (12 years, 10 months ago) |
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Thursday I'm dropping $2000 into my brand new brokerage account. I'm debating between a simple index fund, or an ETF like SPY, or maybe I should try to get into silver.
Advice for someone about to get their toes wet? I just want a steady gainer that mirrors the S&P, or a fund that focuses on large cap growth. I want to get my capital to at least the 5 figure mark before I start to really diversify.
Help is much appreciated.
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Yrat
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Re: Stock Update for March 12, 2008 - NLY [Re: The Ecstatic]
#14049335 - 03/01/11 03:57 PM (12 years, 10 months ago) |
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PSLV
-------------------- "There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil to one who is striking at the root." -Henry David Thoreau Strike The Root
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geokills
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Stock Update for March 2, 2011 - WFT, AMT [Re: The Ecstatic]
#14053182 - 03/02/11 07:53 AM (12 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
I want to get my capital to at least the 5 figure mark before I start to really diversify.
Getting $2000 to $10,000 strictly through an un-leveraged position in an S&P index fund or ETF is going to take a fairly long while - requiring a 500% return on the index to accomplish. In efforts to ensure that you don't get blown out, I would suggest that some measure of diversification is always advised, and that you can use the SPY or DVY to maintain market exposure while you get more comfortable with understanding the market's gyrations. Setup a paper trading account (i.e. no money at risk), as this will help you develop a strategy that works in accordance with your own personal capitalization, risk tolerance, and overall trading style; without risking any of your real precious capital until you are confident that you know what you're doing.
In other news, Weatherford International (WFT), a Swiss oil services company, made an announcement that due to bad accounting they are liable for a tax consequence to the tune of $500 million. Fortunately, the company has a market capitalization of nearly $15 billion, and their revenue numbers were accurate, so it seems that the 15% decline on the open this morning may be a potential buying opportunity. Though accounting irregularities are not to be taken lightly as it could be a harbinger of more trouble under the hood, I'm taking this trade by buying some $20 calls. If the opening low of $19.56 is violated, I'll be out of the trade for a small loss.
Edit: Sold those March $20 calls for a 76% gain in almost exactly one hour. Wish I could do that every morning! 
Edit 2: Update on AMT. Might as well mention that I sold my calls in AMT yesterday as the stock experienced what is known as a "bearish engulfing pattern" - where it opened higher than the prior day's high, and then closed lower than the prior day's low. A bad sign to be sure, so in order to manage my risk, I ditched my calls but held onto my common stock since the fundamental story is intact and the stock is still in an uptrend above its 50 day moving average (though now having made a lower high, which is a yellow flag meriting some caution). I think this one will still work, and will watch for renewed signs of strength at the 50 day (around $52) to get back into those call options, while being mindful that the 200 day exponential moving average is not far off at around $49, so if the market experiences a continued sell off, the 200 day may be where the best opportunity to go long ultimately presents itself.
Positions (largest to smallest):
60% Cash 30% Long Stock: KMP, PSEC, NLY, RIG, CPNO, AMT 3.5% Long Options: BG April $70 call, VZ April $36 call, PBR April $35 call, MMI July $35 call - 0.5% Short Options: NLY April $18 put 6.5% Long Unsecured Debt via LendingClub.com @ 12.4% APY
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Edited by geokills (03/02/11 09:39 AM)
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teknix
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Re: Stock Update for March 2, 2011 - WFT, AMT [Re: geokills]
#14059479 - 03/03/11 11:33 AM (12 years, 10 months ago) |
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If you already posted an analysis of this, I appologize, but I was wondering what you thought about this stock?
http://www.cgi.com/en/investors/stock-info-GIB
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for March 2, 2011 - WFT, AMT [Re: teknix]
#14059649 - 03/03/11 12:10 PM (12 years, 10 months ago) |
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I haven't done extensive research on GIB, however it doesn't look attractive or actionable to me right here, right now. Technically, the stock is quite extended above its 200 day moving average. While that in itself is not a deal breaker, the company appears fairly valued with respect to other companies in its industry. Furthermore, the IT industry that GIB operates in is a mature, highly competitive industry. Therefore, I don't see much of a catalyst to drive its shares to outperform the market, as I don't believe GIB offers any proprietary technology that other companies in its industry cannot emulate. I'd suggest that the biggest upside catalyst for a company like this, is the potential of being bought out or taken over, as companies in mature industries tend grow through acquisitions rather than through their own independent sales and earnings power.
What I DO like right here, is Boeing (BA) jumping off of its 50 day moving average, and Netflix (NFLX) doing the same. NFLX in particular is offering very easily identifiable support at the psychologically significant $200 level which happens to coincide with its 50 day moving average. Conjoined with the fact that the stock is ~20% off of its high set only a few weeks ago, and I think the fears about Amazon's competing video delivery service has been priced in for now. It will take some time for AMZN to encroach on NFLX since NFLX has a wider database of offerings and is already home to a large and growing satisfied member base. Longer term (looking out past 2011), I think NFLX won't be the high flier that it has been over the last year, but right here right now, I think it's worth taking the stock for a bounce.
Disclosure: I bought April $70 calls on BA and April $205 calls on NFLX at the open this morning.
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