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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for November 9, 2010 - PCX, AMT, DE, C, X [Re: Hotnuts]
    #13463022 - 11/10/10 09:04 AM (13 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Hotnuts said:
There you go. Get bullish on this nonsense. I'll be more than glad to take your money. :wink:




Because it is of great import to always be mindful of divergent viewpoints, I want to hammer down some of major concerns that could work against the stock market in the near future so that perhaps we can get an informative dialogue going in place of flippant remarks like *cough* the one noted above. :razz:

Since Doug Kass has been notoriously skeptical of the market's recent advance, and makes many points better than I could, here's what he had to say this morning:

Quote:

Questions I Ask Myself This Morning
11/10/2010 7:19 AM EST

Here are eight topics that I am mulling over.

  • 1. What would the legendary Technical Analyst Bob Farrell Sr. think about yesterday's market action? Was it the reversal day? Would he argue that, with the lowest five-day put/call ratio since April, we finally have seen a top in complacency/bullishness? Or was Tuesday's market reversal another "pause that refreshes," as Jim "El Capitan" Cramer suggests, or even just a "one-day wonder?" Will Tuesday prove to be something more significant that "feeds on itself?"

  • 2. Will the backup in Treasury bond yields (a five-month high in yields/low in price) continue? Did the Fed buy a large portion of the auction? Will yesterday's weak auction foreshadow more poor auctions in the months ahead?

  • 3. Did Boca Biff, with his telephone call to me, top-tick the gold market (down another $15 per ounce this morning) after its parabolic run?

  • 4. Are Boca Biff's other picks about to recede?

  • 5. Will the CME's hike in required silver margin be matched in other metals and commodities in the days ahead?

  • 6. Should China's Dagong Global Credit Rating Company downgrade of the U.S. be readily dismissed as many suggest?

  • 7. Will a behind-closed-doors deal at next week's G20 meeting involve a reduced QE2 in exchange for an agreement for an appreciation in the yuan or even an agreement on trade/current accounts?

  • 8. Will World Series of Poker winner Jonathan Duhamel be the next Chris Moneymaker, or will he be the next Phil Ivey?




Where I Stand
11/10/2010 9:45 AM EST

The prospective 2011-2012 outlook for economic and corporate profit growth is not supportive of current stock prices.

I remain of the view that the prospective 2011-2012 outlook for economic and corporate profit growth is not supportive of current stock prices.

As I recently wrote, "I fully recognize that lower short-term interest rates, the implementation of further monetary easing and the likely extension of the Bush tax cuts reduce the downside risks to the U.S. economic outlook in 2010-2011 and appreciably lower the risk of deflation."

Nevertheless, given the challenges of reviving our domestic economy from the economic and stock market carnage of 2007-2009, the nontraditional headwinds that make the current cycle so unique and the unevenness of the wealth benefit and unintended consequences of QE2 (e.g., screwflation, I am less certain (than the consensus) that the U.S. economy is moving on a smooth path toward profitable and self-sustaining growth (which would ratify the recent stock market's rally).

The recipe for restoring economic growth is in the hands of our fiscal authorities, not in the hands of our monetary authorities.

I believe, as Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher does, that the Federal Reserve is prescribing the wrong medicine for the ailment from which the U.S. economy is suffering, as the uncertainty regarding income and future demand, not abundant liquidity, are the binding constraints to growth. Our domestic economy needs an intelligent, creative and transformative fiscal response to tame our deficit and grow jobs, not more monetary "cowbell" that disproportionately benefits the richest Americans and that is not likely to trickle down to the majority of the population.

In summary, I continue to argue that QE2 will not deliver the anticipated virtuous and smooth circle of economic growth that the Fed desires and that our domestic economy will stay on a path of uneven, below-historic and (potentially) vulnerable growth. In the fullness of time (perhaps sooner than later), developing commodity price inflation, further pressure on consumer real incomes and accelerated declines in our currency will likely weigh on the trajectory of domestic growth and on corporate profit margins.





The bear case is strong, no doubt.  But these days, I am trading more off of what's in front of me - the price action - than the fundamentals or theories about where we may be heading.  It is precisely because there is so much uncertainty as to where we are heading, that I cannot put too much faith in anticipation.  Frankly, there isn't a clear enough picture to anticipate.  Rather, it is because of this uncertainty that the only thing that makes sense to me as a logical and disciplined trading method is to use the price action as my guide. 

Price action is fairly cut and dry, either there are buyers and we are going up, or there are sellers and we are going down.  In aggregate, we have been going up, so that is the frame of reference I will maintain when manipulating my portfolio, until the price action tells me that sellers are beginning to overwhelm the buyers.  The first warning will be a failure at the S&P's 20 day moving average, which will place me in a much more cautious stance and have me whittling down my portfolio to my favorite names (and even then, likely cutting position sizes).  However, the S&P's 50 day moving average is also in a position to provide some solid support as it is aligned with the market tops in mid-January, June and August of this year, and is just below the Nov 1st (last intra-week's) low.  If that level fails, that will change my stance considerably, but until then, I have to work with what's in front of me.


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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for November 9, 2010 - PCX, AMT, DE, C, X [Re: geokills]
    #13463805 - 11/10/10 12:30 PM (13 years, 2 months ago)

I'm just messin' with you! I almost think equities look a hell of a lot better than anything else at the moment, with the exception of soft commodities. My problem is, the spx is at around 23 times, 10 year trailing earnings. Every single time in it's history, it has crashed going further than 20 times. The big question is- how far will it go? 30,40, or even further? Yikes. I'm almost in "cash is king" mode. Bubbles in equities and bonds both. These greedy pigs, running Fortune 500 companies, are doing everything they can from a cost cutting situation, to keep their stock prices high. We'll see how that pans out coming into tougher comps. I foresee a "greedy pig, slaughter fest" ahead. Good luck! :thumbup:


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InvisibleZippoZM
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Re: Stock Update for November 9, 2010 - PCX, AMT, DE, C, X [Re: Hotnuts]
    #13467936 - 11/11/10 09:44 AM (13 years, 2 months ago)

Lets talk TSI 62% the value of iron ore delivered to port



The price keeps climbing and climbing. It is also worth noting that the previous method of setting yearly contract prices, that used to be in place for 50+ years (and kept prices around $50/ton) was tossed out a few years back. The end of these closed door meetings allowed for a dramatic price increase in the free market.

I get a daily update on this every day, in the past 4 days, there have been multiple dollar/ton raises. it is at the point where people are just sitting on previously bought loads of ore, waiting to unload them again as the price seems to be skyrocketing back towards record highs, due to (among other things) QE2

I know you folks love your gold, but if you want to talk physical commodities, a ton of ore fits in a wheelbarrow (very dense material) and iron ore is the number one Dry Bulk Commodity traded in the world.

lots of companies are diversifying into the iron ore market through the purchase of mines, royalties, and acquisitions of whole companies and operations.

some big iron ore names
vale
Us Steel (integrated manufacturer)
BHP Bilton
Rio Tinto

and then again, this raise in price has been disastrous for some other companies, i.e. AK steel (AKS) (glad i dumped that stock a while back)


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PEACE

:mushroom2:zippoz:mushroom2:



"in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption"

"People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it."


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InvisibleZippoZM
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Re: Stock Update for November 9, 2010 - PCX, AMT, DE, C, X [Re: ZippoZ]
    #13469498 - 11/11/10 03:49 PM (13 years, 2 months ago)

Article : Is iron ore the next  Gold?

short article, interesting, and straight to the point


--------------------
PEACE

:mushroom2:zippoz:mushroom2:



"in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption"

"People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it."


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OfflineYrat
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Re: Stock Update for November 9, 2010 - PCX, AMT, DE, C, X [Re: ZippoZ]
    #13470057 - 11/11/10 05:52 PM (13 years, 2 months ago)

demand in gold and silver is primarily as a currency alternative, whereas iron ore has purely industrial demand.  are you confident that there isn't another global economic downturn coming?  do you believe the crash to be over?


--------------------
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
Strike The Root


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InvisibleZippoZM
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Re: Stock Update for November 9, 2010 - PCX, AMT, DE, C, X [Re: Yrat]
    #13470124 - 11/11/10 06:05 PM (13 years, 2 months ago)

Ultimately in any scenario where we all do not shrivel up and die, the need for steel to build this world will not abate. you can not make steel without Iron ore (95% of all iron ore is used to make steel)

Most major iron ore resources are known at this point. As time goes by, smaller and more costly deposits will be put into production, and the raw cost of manufacturing this material will go no where but up. Also, its a finite resource that is being consumed, un like gold and silver which are mined, and held.

Essentially, we are running out of this stuff.

Quote:

Iron ore reserves at present seem quite vast, but some are starting to suggest that the maths of continual exponential increase in consumption can even make this resource seem quite finite. For instance, Lester Brown of the Worldwatch Institute has suggested iron ore could run out within 64 years based on an extremely conservative extrapolation of 2% growth per year.[10]




And the few big steel makers of the world, will start fighting over relatively small deposits.

take Baffinland Iron Mines corp....
they have about 350 million tons of ore, and they are getting bought out for close to half a billion dollars.

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9JC2V081.htm

The seaborne trade in iron ore, that is, iron ore to be shipped to other countries, was 849m tonnes in 2004


Also, lets consider this. The spot price for iron ore has tripped in about 2 years time due to a change in how this commodity is traded, in terms of a percentage return over time, this out preforms physical gold holdings in a similar time frame.



--------------------
PEACE

:mushroom2:zippoz:mushroom2:



"in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption"

"People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it."


Edited by ZippoZ (11/11/10 06:09 PM)


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InvisibleShins
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Re: Stock Update for November 9, 2010 - PCX, AMT, DE, C, X [Re: ZippoZ]
    #13470576 - 11/11/10 07:23 PM (13 years, 2 months ago)

I'm an advocate of buying all kinds of commodities in this climate.  Iron 4tw!


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for November 9, 2010 - PCX, AMT, DE, C, X [Re: Shins]
    #13471249 - 11/11/10 09:36 PM (13 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Shins said:

I'm an advocate of buying all kinds of commodities in this climate.




Absolutely.  My favorites in the space:
  • PCX - coal
  • BTU - coal
  • TCK - coal, copper & zinc
  • FCX - copper & gold
  • VALE - iron ore
  • X - iron & steel (not so crazy about the company, but this is a good takeover target)
  • SQM - chemical manufacturer
  • CF - chemical manufacturer


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for November 17, 2010 - RIG, PAY, BIDU, AMT, CMI, TCK, WM [Re: geokills]
    #13500705 - 11/17/10 09:17 PM (13 years, 2 months ago)

Phew, it's been a bumpy week and a half, but I feel that today in particular is a good time to step in and reiterate that what the market has done over the last eight trading days is actually healthy (so far).  We blew out the upside after the elections and the pull back we've seen since has effectively served to shake out the weak and speculative hands.  Today, we see support developing with the S&P putting in a higher low, and several stocks bouncing off of key support levels, or otherwise giving buyers the opportunity to clearly define their risk for a very minor loss in the event that this thesis is proven incorrect.

I know first hand how the psychology of losing money can mess with a rational train of thought.  It is for this reason that I have done my best to consistently emphasize the necessity of planning your trade and trading your plan.  You always want to know how much money you are risking whenever you enter a trade.  To be able to do this, you need to have an idea of identifiable support for the given stock or trading instrument that you are getting involved with.

But getting back to right here right now; while the market didn't show us a tremendous bounce today, it did show us a higher low including several strong stocks that actually did bounce quite well (though not so much as to take away the opportunity to build a position in some solid companies with low defined risk).  The stocks I will focus on here are conveniently presenting an opportunity to get involved with a downside risk of anywhere from 1% to 4% via the use of a stop loss order just underneath the short term support that has developed over the past couple of days.  This is important, since the aggregate market has the support of key up-trending moving averages (such as the 50 day on the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones), and if it does indeed continue to firm up here after nearly two weeks of consolidation, you are being given the opportunity to get into several high quality stocks with the ability to very clearly define your maximum loss (which happens to be quite manageable since we are so close to support).

Now of course, it is absolutely integral that you in fact trade your plan by adhering to your stop loss levels.  Because if we do break down, it will likely take us down more than you'd feel comfortable riding in all but your most long-term core positions.  So without further ado, here is a diversified list of stocks from companies with good fundamentals that are offering a fantastic opportunity to define your maximum loss at 4% or less at the current price.

  • Transocean (RIG) - This deep water oil drilling company is up some 20% from where I first started recommending the stock earlier this year.  Even so, the $65 - $67 level is offering you the opportunity to enter (or add to) a stock position that has broken out above its 200 day moving average, fallen back to test that breakout, and today appears to be confirming that the uptrend and breakout is legitimate.  Since the 20, 50, and 200 day moving averages are all converging at around $65, yesterday's low of $64.80 should be the line in the sand that you keep your stop loss orders just below.  I like this stock as a long term hold, so I am maintaining only a partial position stop loss at that level, to preserve some profits in the event of a swoon, while maintaining my core position.

  • VeriFone Systems (PAY) - These guys are responsible for a lot of those point-of-sale machines that you swipe your credit card through at the grocery store.  The stock has pulled back some 10% from its high earlier this month, and even though on a weekly chart the stock is fairly extended, the massive spike in trading volume today (7 times more than the 10 day average) in conjunction with a higher low and a higher high, make me want to build a position in this name between $31.50 - $32.50, with a stop loss at around or just under $31.

  • Baidu (BIDU) - This "Chinese Google" has been in a very strong uptrend and holds leading exposure to the world's largest market.  They recently posted a solid earnings report, but the stock stumbled yesterday on general market weakness including specific weakness in China due to talks of that country raising interest rates to cool down its economy, as well as a rumor that some other company was poised to enter into their market space.  Frankly, I don't care about the rumor and I think that Baidu stands to continue growing well in China, just as Goolge has been doing here.  I would be a buyer right here between $103 - $106, with a stop loss right below $103.  Since I already hold a profitable position in this name, I am maintaining only a partial position stop below $103, and a larger stop below the key $100 level, which also happens to be just under the stock's 50 day moving average.

  • American Tower (AMT) - This company owns towers on which they lease space to cell phone carriers to place their antennas.  With ever more data being consumed wirelessly, I see little reason to believe that this company won't continue to do well.  It's a little more conservative and not quite as high of a flier as the previous three mentions, but it is consistent and I think buying right here at $50 - $51 with a stop loss just below $50 makes a whole lot of sense for a longer term position (eg. retirement portfolios).

  • Cummins (CMI) - This major industrial engine manufacturer appears to be bouncing off of its 50 day moving average.  Therefore, a buy here between $90 - $92 with a stop just below $90 makes sense for a small position.  I emphasize that I would be keeping this one a bit smaller because the 20 week moving average has served as longer-term support for over a year now on this stock, and that average is currently at around $85.  In other words, I don't feel as strongly about CMI as I do about the previous mentions, even though it is setting up pretty well for a short term trade.

  • Teck Resources (TCK) - This Canadian metal miner has been the object of my admiration for some time, but I always seem to get shaken out before I can make any money off of it!  I like that they are producing commodities that are in high demand (coal, copper, zinc).  The fact that Republicans gained significant power in the US congress supports the use of coal for our nation's energy needs, and I also like the fact that the Chinese government owns a large stake in this company, since that means that their growing economy will likely continue to be a big purchaser from TCK.  The stock has bounced off of its 20 day moving average, which it has been doing for a few months now, and is also conveniently bouncing off of its last major high set on April 5th at just under $47.  Buying here at $47 with a stop at around $46.25 is the way to go.

  • Waste Management (WM) - Their name tells you what these guys do.  Of all of the names I've made mention of today, this one is somewhat similar to AMT in that it is a more conservative and less exciting stock to own.  Waste management is an important business and these guys seem to do a good job at it.  The stock has begun to carve out a short-term base here at around $34.50, so I would be buying right here between $34.50 - $35, with a stop below $34.50.  Don't forget that these guys also offer a 3.6% yield at the current price, making it a really nice candidate for a conservative long-term or retirement portfolio.  I already have a small position in these guys at $31.50, but am strongly considering adding to it here at this level.


I hope that this short list helps those of you who may be wanting to get some of your money involved in the market but aren't sure where/how to begin.  Just remember, it's always a good idea to begin by buying small, and then if the stock rewards you by proving your thesis correct, you can build up the position more aggressively, knowing that you have a cushion of profits to protect you in the event of a down draft.  Inversely, if your thesis is proven incorrect, you started small and defined your risk, thereby allowing you to take only a small loss, and having the vast majority of your cash at the ready in wait for the next opportunity that presents itself!

I'd love to hear from anyone else who might be seeing some good opportunities developing, even if they're on the short side (HotNuts, I'm lookin' in your direction here!).  For my part, CRM and VMW appear to be pretty good short candidates, though I am not playing the short side at the moment, unless we break below yesterday's low in conjunction with aggregate market conditions that aren't already heavily oversold.


Positions (largest to smallest):

    60% Long AAPL, BIDU, KMP, RIG, PSEC, AMT, DE, C, CPNO, PCX, GLD, WM
    30% Cash
    10% Long Unsecured Peer-to-Peer debt via LendingClub.com @ 13% APY


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for December 2, 2010 - AMT, PCX, FCX, TBT - VOLATILITY SQUEEZE TUTORIAL [Re: geokills]
    #13572327 - 12/02/10 09:16 AM (13 years, 1 month ago)

We have seen some confirmation of the uptrend over the past 24 hours in the market, with the S&P 500 (and most major indexes) bouncing right off of key support levels, in most cases the 50 day moving average.  Over the past couple of weeks as the market carved out its base and consolidated, I kicked DE to the curb after it had underperformed the overall market for several days coupled with the fact that it wasn't near any real key support level.

I've held AMT tenuously, as I believe in the fundamental backdrop for the company, and although it was also underperforming the market for several days, it has been tracking its 50 day moving average pretty well and looks like it could be entering a volatility squeeze on the daily chart if hit hangs around the $52 level much longer.  Volatility is cyclical, and when it quells right around a key moving average while a stock is in a longer term uptrend, it can foretell an explosive breakout to continue the longer term uptrend once volatility picks up again.  To gauge volatility, you should be looking at the bollinger bands on your chart, when they pinch such that the value between the top band and the lower band is around 6% or less, you're in a squeeze that is ripe for a breakout one way or the other.  AMT may not be the best example of this since it is generally a pretty slow mover (and therefore the bollinger bands are typically fairly narrow), but as noted, a squeeze could be developing on continued stability in price, and the 50 day moving average has proved relevant for support during the past six months, which is right where the stock is today.


Volatility Squeeze Tutorial

PCX is a much better example of a squeeze, so let me show you exactly what I'm talking
about since this has proven to be a big money maker for me (credit goes to Dan Fitzpatrick
of StockMarketMentor.com for educating me on the beauty of a good volatility squeeze).


         


I realize the chart above is a little messy - let's just focus on:
  • the daily price bars (green and red candlesticks on the top half of the image)
  • the bollinger bands (three blue lines)
  • and the 50 day moving average (dashed gray line)

You should be able to clearly see how the bollinger bands squeezed very tight at the end of September, right as the stock was clearing its 50 day moving average.  The big white arrow and crosshairs point to the moment of confirmation on October 1st when the stock peaked its head out of the upper bollinger band, and thus the bands began their expansion.  This move carried PCX from $11.75 to over $14 in only 6 trading days - that's a 45% gain in little over a week if you caught the entire move, though more realistically, you could've easily caught a 25 - 35% gain in that time period through a quick entry with the use of disciplined sell stop levels that you adjust as the stock appreciates in value.

Notice how the stock cooled off, but managed to stay above its 20 day moving average.  This is a definite sign of strength and positive action, as the consolidation period allowed volatility to decrease and for the bollinger bands to squeeze again during the first days of November.  The expansion from this November squeeze was lightening fast, but did not have the same staying power as the October expansion for two reasons.
  • #1, the descending 200 day moving average (thick gray line) provided a reason for traders to sell, as the stock failed to break through that resistance on its first try, sending it tumbling back toward its 50 day moving average, from where it has since successfully resumed its uptrend and broken out decisively above the 200 day. 
  • #2, the squeeze occurred at the 20 day moving average, which isn't quite as powerful as if it had been at a longer term average such as the 50 or 200 day.


As the general rule, you want to buy these volatility squeezes the moment that they poke their head above the upper bollinger band during the squeeze (set and manage price alerts when you see these things developing).  Then, once you are in the stock, maintain a stop slightly below that day's intra-day low.  This way, if the breakout is indeed a fakeout, you'll be taken out with a small loss and can move on.  If the stock closes the day outside the upper band on the breakout, half the battle is won.  You can then decide whether or not to add to your position the next day, typically when the stock eclipses the breakout high, signifying that there is still buying demand.  Remember to maintain a trailing stop on these things though, because as on the second squeeze in early November, price broke out strongly above the 200 day moving average, and opened up even higher the next day, but then proceeded to selloff throughout the entire day until it closed below the prior day's low as well as the 200 day average.  It's always a good idea on a volatility squeeze trade, to maintain at least a partial position sell stop just below the prior day's intraday low.  This will keep you in the trade for as long as it's violently projecting higher, but lock in profits or prevent a big loss if the trade turns against you.

Speaking of PCX, it is important to view stocks in different time frames.  We were looking
at PCX in the daily chart above, where we could easily identify two volatility squeezes that
did what they tend to do.  Let's zoom out and check out PCX on its weekly chart, which is a
better indicator of the longer term trend in a given stock:


         


Well what do you know?  On the weekly chart, PCX also appears to be breaking out from a squeeze.  This squeeze doesn't fall into the 6% or less of price value between bollinger bands, but that's OK since that rule is a general rule for daily charts.  Weekly charts need to be given more room, but beyond that, just look at the bands relative to where they have been in the past.  You can see in the cart above that throughout the past summer, and indeed long before that, the bands on the weekly chart were quite wide.  Therefore, relative to the price history, the bands had definitely been squeezing during the end of October, and are now expanding to the upside.  A squeeze on a weekly chart is a beautiful thing to behold, and with PCX having just cleared its key 200 day moving average, I'd say this is a stock that any trader should be involved with!

Seriously guys ^ this volatility squeeze technique is golden!  Pay attention, it will make you money.




In other news, I've added more metal/mining exposure to my portfolio by way of Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold (FCX).  Nothing wrong with the stock and I'm actually looking for a second entry to add to my position.  The $100 level (also near the 20 day moving average), seems like a good spot to buy into or add to this stock.  I would also be happy to add to the similar stock Teck Resources (TCK) on any buying opportunities that may present themselves, in order to gain more exposure to this sector - which I think should perform very well throughout the coming years.  There are two ways to win here, either the economy recovers and resource stocks go higher due to demand.  Or inflation could rear its ugly head, making these commodities more valuable in absolute dollar terms, which would also inflate the stock prices.

Lastly, I finally got around to starting a position in the TBT, an ETF that is two times short the US long bonds.  Bonds have been bought heavily due to the Federal Reserve's actions and other negative macroeconomic headlines over the recent past, their yields are ridiculously low by most any standard, and look to have carved out a base here over the past few months.  I bought a small chunk this past Tuesday on weakness, and will be happy to build up the position on any subsequent weakness going forward.  This is not a short term trade, but something that could take some years to play out.


Positions (from largest to smallest):

    65% Long AAPL, BIDU, KMP, RIG, PSEC, FCX, TBT, PCX, AMT, C, CPNO, GLD, WM
    27% Cash
    8% Long Peer-to-Peer Unsecured Debt via LendingClub.com (~13% APY)


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Stock Update for December 10, 2010 - Volatility Squeeze Developing on BIDU [Re: geokills]
    #13611986 - 12/10/10 10:56 AM (13 years, 1 month ago)

The market continues to behave well, having broken out to a new high for the
year this morning.  Importantly, the financial sector stocks are beginning to
show renewed signs of strength, which tends to contribute to overall market
strength.

I want to bring another volatility squeeze to your attention, this one much
more actionable than PCX on a "right here right now" basis.

Take a look at BIDU...


         



Notice that the thin blue lines (bollinger bands), which are a measure of volatility, are beginning to squeeze tightly right around the current price.  This type of action often leads to an explosive breakout one way or the other, as volatility is cyclical and therefore, periods of low volatility will ultimately beget periods of high volatility.  Because the squeeze on BIDU is occurring right at the 50 day moving average, which also coincides with the thick red up-trending support line that spans the past several weeks, the bias on this stock is for a breakout to the upside.

So how do you play it?  You do have some options...

First, you can buy the shares right here right now, and define your risk with a sell stop.  You could pick the stock up just under $108 a share, and if you are very conservative (i.e. you don't want to risk a lot of money), you can place a very tight stop just below the 50 day moving average.  I would choose the last big up day on 12/3 to define a conservative sell stop under the day's low of $105.34.  That risks less than $3 per share on this $108-ish stock, or roughly 2.5% of downside.  If the stock breaks out and volatility expands to the upside, I would expect the momentum to carry BIDU up to test its recent high of $115, for a minimum 6.5% gain.

If the squeeze continues to tighten and breaks out to the upside, I would expect BIDU to blow through the recent high without too much hesitation.  If you don't mind taking on a little more risk in order to give your position some wiggle room to work, I would choose the November 16th low of $103.11 to place my protective sell stop.  If you're placing a really large bet, it may be wise to place a partial position sell stop at both of the previously mentioned levels, which will slim down your position to a more manageable size at the first signs of weakness below $105, but will also  keep you involved just in case the recent week's lows support the stock just under the 50 day moving average.  After all, BIDU has fallen slightly below its 50 day before bouncing on a few occasions over the past year.

Another option would be to set price alerts.  You could be alerted the moment when BIDU tags the upper bollinger band, open up your position at that point (probably around $110 - $111), and then make sure the stock closes the day near its high, outside of the upper bollinger band.  If the stock reverses intraday, you'll probably want to close the position and try again the next time the stock moves above that day's highs.

You could also place a price alert at the 50 day, to open your position with a lower basis and thereby allow you to risk even less with a closer sell stop.

If on the other hand you like to bet against stocks, you could place an alert at the lower bollinger band, and consider going short on BIDU if it breaks below that level.  You would watch to see that it didn't reverse higher intraday, but instead closed near its lows and outside the lower bollinger band to validate the volatility expansion to the downside.  There would probably be some support around the psychologically significant $100 level, but IF the stock then broke below that, you might even double down on your short position with a tight trailing stop to really capitalize on some downside momentum.

But like I said, this one really does appear to have an uptrending bias and has been consolidating for quite some time.  Not to mention, it's the Chinese "google", fundamentally, it has an excellent business model and position in the world's largest growing market.  BIDU is currently my second largest position, but I won't hesitate to slim it down considerably if the stock fell below $103, and exit the position entirely on a break of $100, at least until I saw renewed signs of buyers coming in to support the stock.


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Re: Stock Update for December 10, 2010 - Volatility Squeeze Developing on BIDU [Re: geokills]
    #13625896 - 12/13/10 11:06 AM (13 years, 1 month ago)

The squeeze is tightening on BIDU, which appears to be a really nice entry into the stock right here above the 50 day moving average.  In fact, I just over-weighted myself in the name, making BIDU my largest position.  The extra shares I picked up today carry a tight stop just below $107 (the low over the last couple of days).  With the stock currently trading at $109, that's risking 1.8% on this up-trending stock with great fundamentals that looks poised to break out to the upside after a couple months of healthy consolidation.  If you take this trade, make absolutely certain you use a sell stop order for protection, because when volatility squeezes break, they tend to break pretty hard one way or the other.  You definitely won't want to stick around if that break is to the downside!

Meanwhile, all the other stocks I've been holding (most of which I've been talking about over the recent weeks and months) continue to perform very well with the sole exception of AMT, on which I'm very close to getting stopped out for a marginal loss (if the stock breaks below $50).

I should also note that the financial sector is finally getting back in fashion.  This is important, as most investors become more comfortable building larger positions when the financial stocks are participating in the rally.  It's a virtuous cycle that tends to encourage more buying.  My small position in Citigroup (C) has been going parabolic, and the only real problem is that I don't own enough, while I'm waiting for a pullback to add to the position, but the pullback doesn't want to happen!

I'll be watching these three financial stocks: C, JPM, and GS for an entry over the coming weeks.  C @ $4.50, GS @ $160, and JPM on a retest of its 200 day moving average around $40.25.  I'll be likely to initiate small positions in GS and JPM on weakness, while I wait for confirmation of renewed strength (successful retest of the 200 day moving average or close to it on the financial sector ETF, ticker symbol XLF) before building them into larger positions.


--------------------

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Stock Update for 1/1/11 - Portfolio Update [Re: geokills]
    #13767868 - 01/11/11 09:31 AM (13 years, 20 days ago)

A month later, a new year, and me thinks it's time for me to transcribe some thoughts.

Clearly, the trade in BIDU didn't work out as I had hoped, and I was stopped out for a very small gain since I had bought in a few weeks earlier at a lower price.  Ultimately, the stock looks like it's starting to work higher again, though this time it is testing its 50 day moving average from the down side coming up.  This is not a high probability trade, as the 50 day moving average had previously held as support and now that it has been broken, is resistance.  I'm staying away for the moment.

In a more macro sense, the market as a whole has been performing quite well, though there are some confusing cross-currents.  There has been a slight decline in overall breadth over the past couple of weeks, though the major averages continue to hold their own.  Notable sectors include the financials finally showing signs of life, oil and oil service continues in an upward trajectory, coal and the metal miners are doing great, agricultural chemicals are also doing great, and the semiconductor index (SMH) looks poised to break out of a very tight volatility squeeze (more on that later).

Nevertheless, I would express caution at this juncture.  The market hasn't really done much over the past few weeks.  There was a pop into the new year, and we have held fairly steady, but have been unable to build on the early momentum.  The S&P is almost 8% higher than it was on December 1st (just over one month ago), that's a huge move.  Both the index and several key stocks have been stalling out over the past week.  Consolidation is good, and can lead to a continuation of the uptrend, but given that the S&P has been unable to make a more meaningful high since the first day of trading in 2011, makes me cautious.

I have a lot of stocks on my books right now, and indeed there appears to be a few good opportunities right here right now.  But I am reminded that when it feels like the market is not going to go down and you're seeing a lot of opportunity, that's often when complacency strikes and the market ultimately humbles you.  Therefore, though I am heavily involved, I have raised my stops to the point where any new purchases will be ditched if they violate the intraday low on which they were purchased.  This is short term, and not typically how I like to trade, but so long as there is market strength, I am striving to be there to benefit from it as much as I can.  A correction in the S&P to 1225 would be a welcome opportunity to refresh the palette of opportunities by giving us some better entry points.





You can see in the above chart that the volatility in the Semiconductor's index is as tight as it's
been in a long while.  Volatility is cyclical, and this will ultimately break one way or the other.  If it
breaks to the upside, it has the power to carry the major averages with it, since the financial
sector broke out late last year, and major money managers are generally the most aggressive
when both the financial and the technology sectors are firing on all cylinders.  Therefore, this is
worth keeping a close eye on.





Cree, a semiconductor company involved in the manufacture of LED lighting, is also entering a
very tight volatility squeeze.  They have an earnings report coming up on the 18th, but if the SMH
breaks out to the upside, I would expect CREE to be carried along for the ride, at least until they
announce earnings.  If this pre-earnings trade works out, I would take at least 75% (if not all) of
the position off prior to earnings, since their last few reports have not been received particularly
well.  That doesn't necessarily mean that this one will be poor, but it's an unknown risk that I
don't think is worth taking.  If however, the report is the catalyst for CREE to break out of
its squeeze, that's another story and may also be worth trading, aggregate market conditions
dependent.





Edit: Stopped out of this trade, might revisit again later in the week but I'm off for the day.

Netflix has been a high flier for some time now, but has recently been consolidating around its 50
day moving average.  Volatility has contracted somewhat, and yesterday's strong buying action
did create a buy signal on the MACD indicator (where the thin blue line crosses over the thin
yellow line in the bottom right of the above image - also denoted by a white arrow on the price
chart - this is a momentum indicator).  I took a small position this morning with a tight stop below
today's intraday low.  If you look back at the history of NFLX expansions at the 50 day, they have
proven quite profitable.  Couple that with the fact that NFLX has a really great business model,
and even though this is a highly valued stock, I think it's worth the play... just make sure you
play it close to the vest and don't hang on if it turns against you!



Remember when I posted this chart?




Well here is PCX today:



Talk about a great trade.  Admittedly, this has been my problem child as I've been shaken out on
several occasions now and haven't made nearly the profits I should have (but hey, at least I did
make some profits).  I am out of the name now, tough regretting it, as coal miners outside of
Australia are enjoying a huge benefit from the Queensland floods which are expected to put a
serious dampener on Australia's coal exports over the coming several months.  This increases
pricing power for producers who can still produce the dirty black stuff, and could also hurt some
steel producers, as metallurgical coal is one of the major raw input costs for steel production.





Nevertheless, I did take a small position in AK Steel after they tumbled to test their 200 day
moving average, which is starting to coincide with their 50 day.  Since the higher raw costs may
dampen steel company profits over the next quarter or two, this one took a pretty big hit and if
the economy does begin to inflate, I definitely want some steel in my portfolio.



 

For those who like high yield, I took positions in NLY and HTS last week when they announced
secondary share offerings that crushed their stocks right down to their 200 day moving
averages.  Historically, these have been good buying opportunities for these two names, both of
which carry a dividend yield approaching 14% annually.  High yielding stocks like these I trade a
bit differently, a little looser, without as much care to the day to day fluctuations in price (though
I will still make use of stop limits on at least partial positions).  These are great options for those
who don't want to pay AS close attention to their portfolio, yet still reap the potential reward of
this asset class.


Other stocks I am watching and waiting for better entries on include: FCX and/or TCK, PCX, MOS and/or AGU, C, and KSU.

Still loving my RIG and AAPL, and the TBT (shorting the US long bond) is at a pretty good buy
point, just above the 20, 50, and 200 day moving average.  You'll probably have more time to
buy the TBT, which is why I didn't highlight it today.  It's a great longer term investment though,
under the belief that the Fed's actions are unable to maintain artificially low rates/inflation (as
evidenced by the bond market's moves already well underway in demanding higher interest on
the notes purchased).


Positions (largest to smallest):

    71% Long Stocks: AAPL, RIG, KMP, PSEC, NLY, HTS, LVS, TBT, NFLX, C, CPNO, GLD, AKS, WM
    20% Cash
    9% Unsecured Debt (Peer to Peer loans via LendingClub.com at ~ 13% APY)


--------------------

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...π╥ ╥π...


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InvisibleZippoZM
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Re: Stock Update for 1/1/11 - Portfolio Update [Re: geokills]
    #13775595 - 01/12/11 03:42 PM (13 years, 19 days ago)

interesting read Geo, one thing i would like to comment on is this,

Quote:

Notable sectors include the financials finally showing signs of life, oil and oil service continues in an upward trajectory, coal and the metal miners are doing great,




while the prices of raw steel making materials (iron ore, and coal) have been skyrocketing, even causing Baosteel of China to raise its products prices across the board, there are some issues that are going to seriously affect earnings in the upcoming quarter.

Eastern Aulstralia has seen some of its worst flooding in decades, which has made rail transport of a number of commodities (iron ore and coal) from a few ports, impossible. i dont know the names of the companies that were effected the worse, but a short opportunity is out there somewhere....

also, keep an eye out for the companies that win the contracts to replace the lack in supply.


--------------------
PEACE

:mushroom2:zippoz:mushroom2:



"in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption"

"People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it."


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Re: Stock Update for 1/1/11 - Portfolio Update [Re: ZippoZ]
    #13776327 - 01/12/11 06:03 PM (13 years, 19 days ago)

where are all the bears now!!!

made bank roll this year!


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Re: Stock Update for 1/1/11 - Portfolio Update [Re: geokills]
    #13781025 - 01/13/11 03:33 PM (13 years, 18 days ago)

Quote:

ZippoZ said:

Eastern Aulstralia has seen some of its worst flooding in decades, which has made rail transport of a number of commodities (iron ore and coal) from a few ports, impossible. i dont know the names of the companies that were effected the worse, but a short opportunity is out there somewhere....

also, keep an eye out for the companies that win the contracts to replace the lack in supply.




One of them I've been pounding the table on for quite a while... I'm unfortunately out of the position now, but it's up another 5% since I posted this two days ago:

Quote:

geokills said:
Remember when I posted this chart?




Well here is PCX today:



Talk about a great trade.  Admittedly, this has been my problem child as I've been shaken out on
several occasions now and haven't made nearly the profits I should have (but hey, at least I did
make some profits).  I am out of the name now, tough regretting it, as coal miners outside of
Australia are enjoying a huge benefit from the Queensland floods which are expected to put a
serious dampener on Australia's coal exports over the coming several months.  This increases
pricing power for producers who can still produce the dirty black stuff, and could also hurt some
steel producers, as metallurgical coal is one of the major raw input costs for steel production.




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Stock Update for January 18, 2011 - CAT, MSI, AAPL [Re: geokills]
    #13806815 - 01/18/11 09:40 AM (13 years, 13 days ago)

OK guys, really nice setup in CAT this morning.  This heavy equipment manufacturer has been
squeezing for some time, trading in an exceptionally tight range.  Well today it's moving out of that
range and a close above the upper bollinger band (which all signs are indicating will happen), will
turn this volatility squeeze into a volatility expansion (remember PCX discussed above??!).  As such,
I have taken some stock, and bought some February $95 and February $100 calls.

Since I'm fairly new to options, I wanted to buy a call option "in the money" (at or below the current
stock price) and a call that's "out of the money" (above the stock price, meaning that you're paying
only for time value), in order to observe their relative performance.  If CAT holds true to the
volatility expansion on a run into their earnings (scheduled for the 27th of this month), these options
should turn out to be one of my best (and shortest) trades ever.  The Feb $100 call I opened this
morning is already up 25% in a matter of hours.  If the trade turns against me, I only risked about
1% of my portfolio's total value so I won't get slaughtered.  This chart says it all; mind you, it's still
early in the trading day and CAT is likely to close on much higher than average volume.  Today is
the entry signal, with an easy path to $100 minimum target.


   


I also picked up some MMI this morning, which is an off-shoot of Motorola pertaining to their
mobile consumer business (versus MSI which is their enterprise / governmental segment).  MMI
had some devices at various trade shows recently that scored very high and signify serious
growth potential in their share of the mobile handset market.  The stock has only been trading for
a couple of weeks but is at an all time high this morning, and is worth taking a look at for the long
haul.  You would want to keep a stop at $33.50 for a conservative play, or just below the all-time
low of $31.17 if you don't mind assuming the additional risk in order to give this one room to
work over time.

Quick note that AAPL may be in trouble on account of Steve Job's medical leave of absence over
the weekend.  I will hold the majority of my position through earnings tonight, though won't be
left holding much if the 50 day moving average is violated.


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Re: Stock Update for January 18, 2011 - CAT, MSI, AAPL [Re: geokills]
    #13809113 - 01/18/11 04:25 PM (13 years, 13 days ago)

Just a note that those CAT $100 February calls I bought are up over 40% on the day.  Amazing the power of leverage that options provide.  Definitely want to be careful with these, as so fast as they can make you money, they can take it away!  Fortunately, buying call options is an easy way to augment stock trades that I've already been involved with, while knowing exactly how much money I am risking.  If CAT moves above today's high tomorrow morning, I am likely to add additional calls to this trade, as volatility expansions off of volatility squeezes as tight as this one has been, tend to last for at least a few days (to learn more about volatility squeezes, read my last few posts in this thread).  Since CAT reports earnings on the 27th, I will plan to close these call positions before that date, especially if the aggregate market begins to tank.

Also worthy of note is AAPL's earnings.  I sold about 15% of my position just before the close, and even though Apple handily beat their anticipated earnings on both EPS and revenue (can you believe this company sold over $26 billion worth of product in the last three months!?!), I'm happy to have trimmed the position a bit as it's been a major winner for me and has thus grown accordingly.  Because Steve Jobs has taken a medical leave of absence, I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock under some pressure until there is greater clarity on that situation.  This is evidenced by a muted reaction to the very positive earnings after-hours.  Even though Steve is a brilliant mind, a bonafide genius even and exceptionally important to the company's development, Apple has a number of talented individuals at the top and I believe the stock is still undervalued with respect to the valuation on comparable consumer tech companies, given its growth rate.  It is for this reason that I do not expect to sell out of my AAPL position anytime soon, though I will likely trim a little more if the news on Jobs appears more grim going forward.

Lastly, I also added one more call option play to my portfolio by way of Solar Fun (SOLF).  Lots of solar stocks were taking off today, and most of them are at or breaking through their 200 day moving averages.  Another one I'm looking to leg into is CSIQ.  Taking very small positions to begin with, since the market's overall rally has been going for quite a while now and I wouldn't be surprised to see some measure of a correction.  However, the fact that the market was moving higher today even on the news out of AAPL that brought the stock down 5% and bad earnings from Citigroup (C) that brought that stock down over 6%, shows that an underlying bid remains in the market, if only for the simple reason that our monetary policy has made stocks the most attractive asset class to own... for the time being.

    Long Stock: RIG, AAPL, KMP, PSEC, NLY, HTS, C, TBT, CAT, CPNO, MSI, GLD, WM, MMI
    Long Call Options: CAT, SOLF
    Long Unsecured Debt via LendingClub.com
    22% Cash


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Re: Stock Update for January 18, 2011 - CAT, MSI, AAPL [Re: geokills]
    #13825393 - 01/21/11 11:07 AM (13 years, 10 days ago)

Just a quick note that I'm out of all options trades and have reduced my long exposure by about 50%.  The market has had a tremendous run over the last several months and the poor reaction to good earnings this week merits caution.  Now appears to be the time to book some profits and wait for better clarity before making any large bets.  I'm not selling out of everything, but I've sold a lot, in wait for better prices (or at least a bit of sideways consolidation) over the coming month before getting aggressive again.

    Long KMP, PSEC, NLY, AAPL, RIG, C, TBT, CPNO, WM
    Long Lots o' Cash


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InvisibleArden
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Re: Stock Update for January 18, 2011 - CAT, MSI, AAPL [Re: geokills]
    #13833625 - 01/22/11 08:16 PM (13 years, 9 days ago)

Are Solarfun (SOLF) stock values expected to rise any time soon?


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