|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 4 hours, 3 minutes
|
Re: Stock Update for October 6, 2010 - Money Rotation [Re: geokills]
#13299001 - 10/06/10 02:24 PM (13 years, 3 months ago) |
|
|
- I've updated my Stock Market Primer (the first post in this thread) to elucidate some of the wisdom
I hope to have been amassing through my ever-increasing experience playing this game. Anyone who is interested in owning stocks but confused about where to begin, might want to take a good read through it. And please ask any questions so that we can all become better investors.
Once you find the discipline and the time, trading stocks can be more fun than frustrating! 
The market took an orderly day of rest to digest yesterday's big gains. I find it important to note that we held steady even in the face of disappointing ADP employment statistics that showed some pretty nasty job losses, all while the "experts" were anticipating job creation. The federal employment statistics come out on Friday, so we'll see if the market can take it in stride, but today's reaction to the ADP numbers was certainly encouraging.
I got stopped out of the remainder of my position in EMC and have an alert set to begin watching it again if it falls back to $18.50. However, I'm not particularly eager to go heavy on tech as the recent leaders (such as CRM, FFIV, RVBD, NFLX, & CRUS) have really seen some huge weakness. It looks like the big money is rotating out of those high growth techs and into the metals/materials/chemicals (look at FCX, MAS & PPO) and even some select financials (JPM & GS). Some key defense players are making a higher low after prolonged weakness over the past six months (RTN & LMT).
It can be difficult when the market goes up fast and furious, as that will typically lead to an equally fast and furious fall. Therefore, I'm hoping we see a bit more consolidation throughout the balance of the week (without too much weakness on Fridays employment number), so that I can accumulate shares in stocks like FCX, MAS, PPO, RTN and maybe even some JPM. On the flip side, HUM and MGM are my weakest hands and may get booted from my portfolio sooner rather than later!
Lastly, MICC looked a little sluggish today. I have been talking about this one positively in my last few posts, but I'm much less aggressively optimistic on this name at the moment given the price action in the stock over the past two days. Even though I bought yesterday, I wasn't happy about the weakness into the close, and then the even weaker open today. I do like the long term fundamentals for the company, but am likely to reduce this position on strength, while continuing to keep an eye on it for a better entry. I also have a sell stop on my full position at $94.24.
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 4 hours, 3 minutes
|
Re: Stock Update for October 6, 2010 - Money Rotation [Re: geokills]
#13303726 - 10/07/10 12:32 PM (13 years, 3 months ago) |
|
|
HUM and MGM are hanging in there, just barely. I was taken out of my positions in PEP and MICC today for a 26% long term and 5% short term gain respectively, and added some PMI at $4 to bring in some financial exposure to my portfolio. I am actively bidding for starter positions in PPO, MAS, RTN, and bidding to add to my existing position in PCX. My bids are fairly conservative and may or may not get filled. I'm trying to game a potentially volatile response or anticipation to tomorrow's jobs numbers, which may allow some of these orders to get filled. As long as the S&P 500 continues to close above 1150, I will continue to look to accumulate stock. On a close below 1150, not only will a few more of my sell stops get hit in order to raise some cash in my portfolio, but my overall bias will turn increasingly more cautious.
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 4 hours, 3 minutes
|
Stock Update for October 8, 2010 - HUM, MGM, PMI, PSEC, RTN [Re: geokills]
#13307832 - 10/08/10 09:11 AM (13 years, 3 months ago) |
|
|
What happened to all our traders around here? Guys, there has been a tremendous opportunity unfolding in the market this week!
S&P hangs in there even upon the heels of the dismal jobs report today, couldn't have asked for a better reaction. The longer we hold the upper end of this range, the more likely we are to see continuation of the breakout to the upside.
HUM has started to move more meaningfully off of support, so I'm glad it only came within $0.02 of my sell stop and didn't get triggered yesterday. This is not a very exciting stock, but it is at a decent buy point and you don't want all of your trades to be crazy hyper fast money - it's important to stay diversified.
Speaking of fast money, MGM is off to the races today, breaking out almost 7% as of this writing, to the top of its most recent trend regression channel (starting September 1st to present). With the meaningful move off of the 200 day, this one looks poised to break out on the weekly chart, and I would love to have the opportunity to add to this position at $12 or below. In the meanwhile, my sell stop moves up to $11.43. Sure wish I'd bought more of this one, but the breakout wasn't so clear yesterday and I didn't wake up early enough to catch the beginning of the move this morning... that's just how it goes sometimes.
PMI is also off to the races this morning, up nearly 6% as of this writing. I am actively bidding to increase my position size below $4.20. This is another one (similar to MGM) with an explosive potential to breakout to the upside on the weekly time frame, after having been consolidating in a volatility squeeze for nearly two years now!
I've also added to PSEC this morning. Not nearly as exciting of a stock, but sporting a handsome 12% dividend, and looking to be squeezing a bit right around the 20 day moving average, with an upside bias. I do not expect this one to become a high flier overnight, but the dividend makes it attractive enough to keep me involved.
I even picked up a chunk of RTN this morning for my retirement account, sporting a 3.3% yield. Even though the stock is in a down trend, this looks like a low risk buy point since the stock has been carving out a fairly wide base here around the $45 level over the past few months. Volatility is squeezing and the 20 and 50 day moving averages have converged right here. If shares dip below the recent low of $44.37, I'm kicking this one to the curb without any hesitation.
Positions (largest to smallest):
Long RIG, AAPL, KMP, PSEC, PCX, HUM, RTN, PMI, CPNO, GLD, WM, MGM, PGN 25% Cash Position Long Unsecured Debt (Peer to Peer lending notes @ ~13% APY)
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
therapist
sheeeeeeeeeeeit...


Registered: 05/05/10
Posts: 278
Loc: USA
Last seen: 10 years, 5 months
|
Re: Stock Update for October 8, 2010 - HUM, MGM, PMI, PSEC, RTN [Re: geokills]
#13435683 - 11/04/10 07:35 PM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
|
|
i'm a poor college student with a few hundred a month to throw around. where can i start investing to get some financial security for myself?
|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 4 hours, 3 minutes
|
Re: Stock Update for October 8, 2010 - HUM, MGM, PMI, PSEC, RTN [Re: therapist]
#13435873 - 11/04/10 08:07 PM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
|
|
Until you have enough money saved up to sustain yourself for at least several months, I wouldn't mess with investing. The last thing you want is to throw your few hundred bucks into some stock, the stock takes a swoon and then you realize you actually need that money. If you have an appetite for high risk however, by all means throw it into the market. The federal reserve is doing everything they can to drive people away from holding onto dollars, which in turn encourages people to move their dollars into other asset classes such as stocks.
The inflation trade is alive and well, and though it's been said before, the up-trend in precious metals remains intact. Given that there are no sure bets in the market, the precious metal trade is about as sure of a long term bet as you could make right now.
Since I haven't thrown an update on this thread for a while, let me just say that I am actively bidding for PCX, CSIQ, and FCX. If you want a very high risk momentum trade, take a look at MCP (just don't overstay your welcome!).
Current positions (largest to smallest):
60% Long AAPL, KMP, RIG, BIDU, PSEC, HUM, RTN, CPNO, GLD, WM, BKCC, PGN 30% Cash 10% Unsecured Debt (Peer to Peer lending notes via LendingClub.com @ ~13% APY)
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
therapist
sheeeeeeeeeeeit...


Registered: 05/05/10
Posts: 278
Loc: USA
Last seen: 10 years, 5 months
|
Re: Stock Update for October 8, 2010 - HUM, MGM, PMI, PSEC, RTN [Re: geokills]
#13437775 - 11/05/10 09:06 AM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
|
|
precious metals sound like they could be profitable long-term, but what about the short-term? my roommate is in the same situation as me and swears by his mutual fund. would it be worth it to throw a hundred in one of those?
|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 4 hours, 3 minutes
|
Re: Stock Update for October 8, 2010 - HUM, MGM, PMI, PSEC, RTN [Re: therapist]
#13438046 - 11/05/10 10:37 AM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
|
|
If you have no desire to actively manage your own money (spending at least three or four hours a week on it), an S&P index fund that tracks the movement of the 500 stocks in the S&P 500 is the perfect no-brainer investment as you'll always perform right alongside the market.
For the time being, with the Fed backstopping the market by making the dollar a very unattractive asset class, you should do alright with the index fund. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty out there and anything can happen. As I've noted in the revised version of the first post of this thread, it is nearly impossible to have a long-term time horizon with the things that are transpiring in the macro-economy, and the related instability that looms threateningly on the horizon.
Alternate options include constructing a basket of mutual funds or ETF's that focus on different sectors / regions that you believe to be in favor. My suggestion for this approach would be to divide your money equally into funds that individually invest in the following areas: Energy, Metals, Technology, High Yield, and Brazil/India (or Latin America in general).
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
Shins
Fun guy



Registered: 09/15/04
Posts: 16,337
|
Re: Stock Update for October 8, 2010 - HUM, MGM, PMI, PSEC, RTN [Re: therapist]
#13440118 - 11/05/10 05:59 PM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
therapist said: precious metals sound like they could be profitable long-term, but what about the short-term? my roommate is in the same situation as me and swears by his mutual fund. would it be worth it to throw a hundred in one of those?
Precious metals are making large short term gains as well. in fact, i'm more worried about the long-term than short term with precious metals.
Does your friend's mutual fund appreciate 30%+ annually?
I doubt it.
I would recommend against Dollar denominated assets like the S&P and fee-ridden mutual funds.
|
ZippoZ
Knomadic



Registered: 06/17/03
Posts: 13,227
Loc: Pongyang, North Korea
|
Re: Stock Update for October 8, 2010 - HUM, MGM, PMI, PSEC, RTN [Re: Shins]
#13440132 - 11/05/10 06:02 PM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
|
|
man, when gold was peaking around 1,200 i was thinking that it couldn't possibly go any higher..... that it couldnt possibly make sense to buy gold at 1,200.
-------------------- PEACE
zippoz "in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption" "People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it."
|
Shins
Fun guy



Registered: 09/15/04
Posts: 16,337
|
Re: Stock Update for October 8, 2010 - HUM, MGM, PMI, PSEC, RTN [Re: ZippoZ]
#13440152 - 11/05/10 06:06 PM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
ZippoZ said: man, when gold was peaking around 1,200 i was thinking that it couldn't possibly go any higher..... that it couldnt possibly make sense to buy gold at 1,200.
That's probably because you don't understand why gold is rising.
Nothing has changed fundamentally to reverse the trend, quite the contrary.
|
ZippoZ
Knomadic



Registered: 06/17/03
Posts: 13,227
Loc: Pongyang, North Korea
|
Re: Stock Update for October 8, 2010 - HUM, MGM, PMI, PSEC, RTN [Re: Shins]
#13440165 - 11/05/10 06:09 PM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
|
|
no believe me, i understand fully why it is happening in regards to all of the factors involved in the current economic condition. That the price of gold would rise makes perfect sense.....
However I Can not say that i fully 'understand' the situation... because a lot of the moves being made by the Fed and treasury ARE COMPLETELY FUCKING RETARDED.
-------------------- PEACE
zippoz "in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption" "People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it."
|
ArmFromTheAbyss
Old Hand

Registered: 10/09/02
Posts: 1,368
Loc: Down here in Babylon
|
Re: Stock Update for October 8, 2010 - HUM, MGM, PMI, PSEC, RTN [Re: ZippoZ]
#13440327 - 11/05/10 06:52 PM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
|
|
Why didn't the price of gold fall today when the dollar index was up almost 1%?
--------------------
|
Shins
Fun guy



Registered: 09/15/04
Posts: 16,337
|
Re: Stock Update for October 8, 2010 - HUM, MGM, PMI, PSEC, RTN [Re: ArmFromTheAbyss]
#13440376 - 11/05/10 07:06 PM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
ArmFromTheAbyss said: Why didn't the price of gold fall today when the dollar index was up almost 1%?
Dead cat bounce / Bull Trap.
|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 4 hours, 3 minutes
|
Re: Stock Update for October 8, 2010 - HUM, MGM, PMI, PSEC, RTN [Re: ArmFromTheAbyss]
#13442754 - 11/06/10 09:58 AM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
ArmFromTheAbyss said:
Why didn't the price of gold fall today when the dollar index was up almost 1%?
There are always going to be some divergences from traditional relationships in the market on any given day. These may have to do with the relationship between the dollar and commodities as you have noted, or the number of stocks setting new highs when the market itself is setting new highs, or the ratio of the small cap russell 2000 index to the S&P 500, or the inverse relationship between bonds and stocks, et al. Generally speaking, these divergences all occur at some point but do not last very long, and can therefore present an opportunity to the trader if you are aware of the long-term relationship and believe that it will be upheld.
Keep in mind that the dollar index is weighed against a basket of other prominent world currencies. So if those other currencies are doing even worse on a given day, the dollar could show relative strength and be up, even as the macro-economic currency climate is dropping, which is one way you could see continued upward pressure in commodity sectors such as gold even as the dollar is also rising.
To the point, pretty much everything in the market is cyclical and nothing will go straight up or straight down. There is always some measure of ebb and flow, zig and zag, wiggles and wobbles. Your job as an investor is to capitalize on these by timing your ideal entries and exists in accordance with them.
To that end, the market has sent us a strong signal this week that it wants to go higher (on account of the Fed mandated "move your dollars into other asset classes in attempts to spur economic growth" mantra). I imagine that we will come down to test the 1200 level again on the S&P before we launch appreciably higher, or at least, I'm hoping that we will, as a successful retest of that area will have me concentrating on any opportunity to build up positions in names like PCX, CSIQ, FCX, CMG, FFIV, RVBD, NSC, CSX, and possibly even TBT (an ultra-short long bond ETF that has been getting jiggy lately).
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
ArmFromTheAbyss
Old Hand

Registered: 10/09/02
Posts: 1,368
Loc: Down here in Babylon
|
Re: Stock Update for October 8, 2010 - HUM, MGM, PMI, PSEC, RTN [Re: geokills]
#13442999 - 11/06/10 11:20 AM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
|
|
The common narrative I hear is that any commodity priced in dollars automatically must rise if the dollar falls, and vice versa.
By that logic the dollar should be making new lows when gold is making new highs. That isn't the case, so I'd suggest that gold has a sizable speculative premium.
--------------------
|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 4 hours, 3 minutes
|
Re: Stock Update for October 8, 2010 - HUM, MGM, PMI, PSEC, RTN [Re: ArmFromTheAbyss]
#13443027 - 11/06/10 11:28 AM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
|
|
That could very well be the case, but I see no reason to believe that the speculative interest in gold as an inflation hedge won't continue to persist and even increase as signs of inflation ultimately make themselves known through future economic data. No one has enough capital to stay solvent fighting a driving trend as strong as the trend in gold is, so don't try! Instead, go long and maintain a disciplined trading strategy that will have you reducing exposure on weakness or breaks of up-trending support. Until the moving averages begin to trend down and inflation is seen in the economic data, the inflation trade will not be over (though it may indeed rest along the way).
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 4 hours, 3 minutes
|
Stock Update for November 7, 2010 - PCX, TCK, FCX, C, GS, DE, CAT, RVBD [Re: geokills]
#13449865 - 11/07/10 06:00 PM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
|
|
Alright guys, time to cut through the bullshit and realize that the market is sending us some really strong signals. Ben Bernanke and the Fed's latest $600 billion addition to the world's largest ponzi scheme is throwing tremendous amounts of fuel on the inflation trade fire. Couple that with the republican takeover in the House of Representatives, and even if you don't like it, as a money manager you have to be able to acknowledge waht is happening and should therefore be able to capitalize off of it.
Agricultural businesses are booming. Grain and sugar prices are ramping, CAT and DE are looking really good. I'm favoring DE, but both should work in this environment.
Likewise, metals are on fire. A lot of people have been pumping gold forever on this board, and it continues to work. Don't forget about silver either: SLV (the silver ETF) and SLW (a silver mining company) are absolutely on fire.
I am going to continue bidding on PCX, TCK, and FCX this coming week. They are all well positioned to benefit from this inflation trade. They have been working, and should continue to work for some time.
Financials have finally broken out. With all of the congruences in the market (Dow breaks out, S&P breaks out, Transports break out, Oil breaks out, Tech has long since broken out, even Retail is working on breaking out), it's really time for the aggressive trader to press bets to the long side. In terms of financials, I would be focusing on Citigroup (C) and Goldman Sachs (GS). Don't be alarmed that they have moved... they look to have a lot more room to run.
Don't forget about the tech favorites. Riverbed (RVBD) has had a tremendous move and is continuing its upside. It is extended, but it didn't give back anything from its breakout last month, and that is a sign of underlying strength and buying interest.
No need to go balls to the wall and buy full positions on everything in sight, but get involved!
Again, get involved.
If you are a trader, don't even think about going short right now. It's always good to keep some cash on the sidelines for unexpected weakness; but right now, this is the time to be focusing on your buy list. This is the time to be involved. If you want to make money in the market, use any weakness to start building positions as there are a lot of strong signals indicating that we're going higher.
Buy list:- PCX, TCK, FCX
- C, GS
- DE, CAT
- KSU
- RVBD
- AMT
- BIDU
Potential buy list:- CSX, NSC
- FFIV
- CMG (this one is unbelievably good, and I'm probably just too freaked out by how good it has been to put it on the above buy list)
- RIG
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 4 hours, 3 minutes
|
Stock Update for November 9, 2010 - PCX, AMT, DE, C, X [Re: geokills]
#13457985 - 11/09/10 08:56 AM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
|
|
Repeating for emphasis, this market wants to be bought! The S&P 500 broke out of its range HUGE last Friday, and should have given back some of that gain by now. The fact that it's just grinding around at the top of the breakout speaks volumes about the strength of this move. There is a big ol' giant wall of worry, giving us several reasons for why stocks should be falling. But put plainly, that doesn't matter right now, and indeed, the fact that there are so many reasons to worry, leaves a lot of investors on the sidelines as potential buyers. Why is this good? Because these potential buyers have a money pool with which to propel stocks higher when they finally cave in and buy after feeling like they've been left behind. They are also likely to produce an underlying bid on weakness, as they scramble to take advantage of any lower prices in order to gain exposure to the market.
This has been something I've struggled with on several occasions throughout my career learning how to trade stocks, and I'm finally coming to understand that trends can last a lot longer than you'd anticipate, and that attempting to anticipate bottoms and tops is really just a crap shoot. Rather, staying involved and using somewhat of a reactionary approach to the action in front of you seems to pay off much better.
The riskiest trade in a stock is the first purchase I'll make, because I don't have any profits yet with which to comfort me in the event that the stock begins to swoon a bit. Therefore, I attempt to buy close to support so that I can set a stop for a minimal loss. But what about in a market like this, that just doesn't seem to want to quit going up? There isn't much support on a lot of these charts (just look at SLW hot damn!). If you feel like you are lacking exposure to the market but that everything is hard to buy, use position sizing to make you more comfortable. Rather than buying the 100 shares that you really want, start with 25. That will keep you from panic-selling if the stock falls for a couple of days, leaving room for you to comfortably add to the position if it does, all while keeping you involved and making a little money in case the sprint higher continues.
I used this approach yesterday to pick up small positions in PCX (coal), AMT (cell phone towers), DE (agricultural machinery), C (bank), and X (steel). Frankly, none of these stocks are at great buy points, but I need to put some more skin in the game when the trend is this strong, all while leaving room to add to these positions if they fall back.
No question we've gone up fast, and honestly the S&P 500 could take a 3% haircut tomorrow and nothing would really be wrong with the market. On the contrary, it would probably present an excellent buying opportunity. So as I've been advising, play it close to the vest, use trailing stops to protect the profits that have been coming so quickly (keep at least a few of these really tight, not necessarily on your full position but maybe half of it). Try to buy close to support but if that's just not possible, use positioning sizing to reach an acceptable level of risk for yourself. Don't get married to a position if it's made you money, be ready to drop it like a hot potato if the stock turns against you. Don't let winners turn into losers. But for crying out loud, get involved - there is money to be made!
Positions (largest to smallest):
70% Long AAPL, KMP, RIG, BIDU, PSEC, HUM, RTN, AMT, DE, PCX, C, X, CPNO, GLD, WM 21% Cash 8.7% Long Unsecured Peer-to-Peer Debt via LendingClub.com (~13% APY)
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
Hotnuts
old hand



Registered: 02/26/05
Posts: 3,436
Loc: Wild Blue Yawnder
Last seen: 25 days, 10 hours
|
Re: Stock Update for November 9, 2010 - PCX, AMT, DE, C, X [Re: geokills]
#13461396 - 11/09/10 10:51 PM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
|
|
There you go. Get bullish on this nonsense. I'll be more than glad to take your money.
Edited by Hotnuts (11/09/10 10:54 PM)
|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 4 hours, 3 minutes
|
Re: Stock Update for November 9, 2010 - PCX, AMT, DE, C, X [Re: Hotnuts]
#13462908 - 11/10/10 08:07 AM (13 years, 2 months ago) |
|
|
I don't know what money you'll be taking. I've been handily long for a couple of months now and my portfolio value has been on a tear. Also to note (and I've really done my best to be clear about this in my previous posts), I am not advocating buying up everything in sight and then forgetting about it. Being long entails a disciplined risk management strategy. You should plan your trade and trade your plan. To that end, I took a stop on my entire position in HUM this morning, booking a 20% gain over one month's time. I was also in (and out) of a small position in TCK and PCX the same day yesterday when the price action bearishly engulfed the prior day's price action. I also decided to close out and book profits in PGN, in favor of adding to my cash cushion while making room for higher beta stocks. This isn't a "set it and forget it" type of game as I'm sure you understand, but I also have a hard time understanding how you don't see the clear uptrend the market has been undertaking for quite some time now; and that after a breakout like we had last friday, it's totally normal for the market to fall back and test the breakout level. Whether or not it passes that test, we don't yet know, but to make a statement like you did above is pretty ridonkulous.
I mean honestly, the only people who have been losing money are the ones who have been short this market over the past few months. Even now, I would not go short for more than a very short-term trade (with the exception of shorting the long bond via the TBT). Now all of that may change if the S&P is unable to stay above its 20 day moving average, but until that time, the pull backs we are seeing in the market yesterday and so far today are a healthy and normal development. I don't see panic selling, I see some reasonable profit taking after what has been an extraordinary run to the upside. Shaking out the weak hands so to speak. This is the time to adjust your portfolio to preserve some of the profits you've made (if you were long) while constructing a buy list of favorites and setting alerts for key support levels; so that when those levels are triggered, you can watch for signs of strength and then start buying as soon as you know other buyers are showing up to re-define those key support levels you set your alerts for. If you haven't been long, this is the time to slowly scale into the winners in a disciplined manner to gain exposure to a strong market.
As I write, the market is down some 0.7%, yet American Tower (AMT), Bidu (BIDU), Kansas City Southern (KSU), Citigroup (C), Deere (DE), and Transocean (RIG) are showing relative strength. These are the types of stocks I'm watching, and should be the ones to focus on if you believe that this market is going higher.
64% Long AAPL, KMP, RIG, BIDU, PSEC, RTN, AMT, DE, C, X, CPNO, GLD, WM 28% Cash 8% Unsecured Peer to Peer Debt @ 13% APY
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
|