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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for June 23, 2010 - BP, RIG, CLF, SDS [Re: CosmicLion]
    #12801966 - 06/25/10 10:59 AM (13 years, 7 months ago)

Like "Munsoned"? lol! The new one for a poor stock plays is, "Tilsoned".


Edited by Hotnuts (06/25/10 11:01 AM)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for June 23, 2010 - BP, RIG, CLF, SDS [Re: geokills]
    #12802355 - 06/25/10 12:21 PM (13 years, 7 months ago)

Just a quick note that I have covered my shorts on CLF and ISRG, and have added a small position in SNDK towards the lower end of its up-trending channel with a stop just below today's intraday low around $45.  I also added a small position in RIG yesterday at $50 that I will continue to build slowly over time.

Probably could have held onto my ISRG short a while longer, but I erroneously entered a limit order instead of a STOP limit order. :foreheadslap:

If the stock ramps and shows signs of failing near $340, I will re-short ISRG in a heartbeat.

Still holding a small position in SDS but maintaining a tight stop since the market appears to be reversing higher this afternoon.  It should be noted that the Russell index re-balancing is affecting the market dynamics today, particularly the volume, and should make for a jumpy close.  The end-of-quarter markups aka "window dressing" is also likely playing a hand.  Therefore, I am not in a rush to load up on longs, though I suspect that due to recent sustained pressure and some mild oversold readings, we may see a relief rally next week, which will give me another opportunity to reload on some shorts.

Maintaining over 50% cash, while taking a very timid short-term bullish stance, with the intention that any strength next week should be used to reduce long side exposure and start shorting again.  Specific shorts I am considering: ISRG @ $340, BRK.B @ ~$82, and CREE @ $69.


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Edited by geokills (06/25/10 01:49 PM)


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Offlinescatmanrav
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Re: Stock Update for June 23, 2010 - BP, RIG, CLF, SDS [Re: geokills]
    #12802913 - 06/25/10 02:08 PM (13 years, 7 months ago)

Does bullish mean long and bearish mean short? I'm doing alot of readying, easy question..its mainly just to post in this thread to watch it easier in my threads..but if someone wouldnt mind indulging me in an answer.

Edit: Thanks guys for quick reply, didnt want to jack your thread but I have to keep up on this one. I've read most of it, believe it or not..thanks you guys for this and your threads hotnutz..its over my head but I'm rising to it.


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"life is like a drop of rain getting closer and closer to falling into a lake, and then when you hit the lake there is no more rain drop, only the lake."

Growing with bags, start to finish (including my new grain and substrate prep)
Anyone looking to start bulk tubs/mono tubs/shotgun hybrids? Good tubs to use..
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Turn your closet into a fruiting chamber
Casing layer colonization and overlay


Edited by scatmanrav (06/25/10 08:44 PM)


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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for June 23, 2010 - BP, RIG, CLF, SDS [Re: scatmanrav]
    #12803261 - 06/25/10 03:05 PM (13 years, 7 months ago)

Yep. The old saying goes, "a bull will knock you "up" in the air and a bear will smack you "down" to the ground".


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for June 23, 2010 - BP, RIG, CLF, SDS [Re: Hotnuts]
    #12803806 - 06/25/10 04:59 PM (13 years, 7 months ago)

Hah, I like that.  Never heard the 'ol saying, but it's a good one. :smile2:

Back to the stock specific discussion... Wow, BRK.B really flew in the last few minutes of trading, no doubt as a result of the Russell re-balancing.  I took the opportunity to put on a small short position at around $81.36.  I will add to the short above $83, but will be stopped out for a small loss if shares breach $84.


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InvisibleGI_Luvmoney
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Re: Stock Update for June 23, 2010 - BP, RIG, CLF, SDS [Re: geokills]
    #12946754 - 07/24/10 05:36 PM (13 years, 6 months ago)



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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for June 28, 2010 [Re: geokills]
    #12966058 - 07/28/10 10:29 AM (13 years, 6 months ago)

This short-term trendless market full of chop can be very frustrating to navigate.  Since we are hanging around the 200 day moving average on the S&P which should serve as resistance (and the market is becoming overbought after last weeks strong rally), I am practically flat with a large short position on the SPY (an S&P 500 equivalent) that has effectively hedged my longs.  This is also in part due to unrelated obligations that have kept me away from my desk for the better part of the past two weeks.

I do have a protective stop in place to close 2/3 of my short position on the SPY if yesterday's highs are breached.  Based strictly upon the price action and solid breadth, the market does appear to be making a run at reclaiming a bullish stance.  However, while we could make a run at 1150 I still believe that over the intermediate and longer terms (several months to years), the path of least resistance is downward.

Positions (from largest to smallest):

    50% Cash
    Short SPY
    Long AAPL, KMP, BAC, CPNO, RIG, PEP, WM, GLD


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for August 11, 2010 [Re: geokills]
    #13035795 - 08/11/10 10:27 AM (13 years, 5 months ago)

Market takes it on the chin today.  Fortunately I'm largely in cash, 10% short on the S&P, and have recently moved 10% of my capital into LendingClub.com for peer-to-peer fixed income notes.  It's still way too uncertain out there (and not having fallen enough) to make any big bets on stocks, but I did take make some buys today, including a very small nibble on Citigroup (C) for my retirement portfolio.

I was stopped out of half of my Transocean (RIG) position just under $55 this morning for a 14% profit, looking to buy the shares back at around $51.

I am also taking a position in Cree (CREE) on the heels of their earnings report, down some 13% at $60 a share.  The company is dominant in the LED lighting industry with solid growth and a great fundamental story.  Seeing as it has a history of bouncing back after poorly received earnings reports, I'm taking a high flier on this one.  I won't stick around however, should the stock meaningfully break its 50-week moving average; which is pretty much right where the stock is trading, allowing me a low-risk entry with an easily defined stop level let's call it today's intraday low so long as we can stay above $58.50.

Positions (largest to smallest):

    50% Cash
    10% LendingClub peer-to-peer loan notes (~13% avg APY)
    10% Short SPY
    30% Long KMP, AAPL, BAC, CPNO, CREE, PEP, RIG, WM, GLD, C


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for August 13, 2010 [Re: geokills]
    #13047029 - 08/13/10 03:55 PM (13 years, 5 months ago)

Well, that trade on CREE didn't work out and I am no longer involved in the name, exiting with a small loss.  However, I did take a nibble on the long side today with Regal Entertainment (RGC) as well as EMC (EMC).

Regal Entertainment operates 548 movie theaters in the US and at $13/share sports a 5.5% annual dividend yield.  It appears to be carving out a base here, though I would likely exit the name if it fell below $12.50.  Some analysts have noted their expectation that the company will be raising its already beefy dividend before the year is out, which could act as a positive catalyst.

EMC is a data storage company, definitely a sweet spot in the technology sector, as more people and businesses require increasingly more data storage as throughput and overall file size (especially video/image files) increase over time.  The company owns a controlling stake in its spin-off VMWare (VMW), which provides virtualization solutions for business, another really hot space in the sector since virtualization allows businesses to save money by increasing efficiency and maintaining less physical hardware.  The stock is close to tagging its 200 day moving average, where it has found support repeatedly over the past four months.


Positions (from largest to smallest):

    45% Cash
    10% Lending Club peer-to-peer loan notes (~13% avg APY)
    10% Short SPY
    35% Long KMP, AAPL, BAC, CPNO, PEP, RIG, GLD, WM, EMC, C, RGC


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Offlinekillersneakers
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Re: Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: geokills]
    #13048025 - 08/13/10 07:38 PM (13 years, 5 months ago)

make it short and give us the best


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for August 17, 2010 - SPY [Re: killersneakers]
    #13063194 - 08/17/10 09:12 AM (13 years, 5 months ago)

Covered my SPY short this morning, for a nimble bout of profit taking in light of the market's oversold condition and seeming want to move higher.  I will reload at the first signs of weakness above the 20 day moving average (expected to be going short between 1105 - 1130 on the S&P).

I have also added back to my RIG position at roughly the same level I took profits last week.  I had hoped to buy back in at around $51 but the stock never made it that low - Shares appear to be stabilizing and trending in a series of higher lows and higher highs over the past month, in conjunction with a good technical setup in the Oil Services Industry (OIH) which could be in the early stages of a volatility expansion to the upside after bouncing off of its 50 day moving average.  Since RIG has been so beaten down off of the BP spill, yet remains a dominant player in the global deepwater drilling market, I think it has room to run, especially if the sector as a whole begins to move higher.

While I also like RIG for the long term, if the market in aggregate looks like it's falling off a cliff, I will not overstay my welcome and will whittle RIG down to a 1/4 position size.  Currently, I am at around 2/3 position size in this name.


Positions (from largest to smallest):

    55% Cash
    10% Lending Club peer-to-peer loan notes (~13% avg APY)
    35% Long KMP, AAPL, RIG, BAC, CPNO, PEP, GLD, WM, EMC, C, RGC


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··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Edited by geokills (08/17/10 10:44 AM)


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InvisibleGI_Luvmoney
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Re: Stock Update for August 17, 2010 - SPY [Re: geokills]
    #13064767 - 08/17/10 03:13 PM (13 years, 5 months ago)



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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for September 16, 2010 - AAPL, RIG, MICC, S&P [Re: GI_Luvmoney]
    #13203617 - 09/16/10 10:41 AM (13 years, 4 months ago)

Long time since I've updated... I've decided not to maintain this as a real-time trading journal, as my time is being split across so many endeavors these days that I simply don't have enough of it (nor the inclination) to fully outline each and every transaction I implement with much regularity, particularly since many of them are now automated through the use of stops and price/volume/volatility alerts.

The market has been strong as death over the past couple of weeks.  It appears to be very constructive, and looks poised to break out above the recent trading range from the last 3 to 4 months.  Of course, it is important to be mindful that the S&P is now smack up against resistance again (where we have failed twice now), but is resting just above the 200 day moving average on the S&P 500 (the Nasdaq has already broken out to the upside).  The best case scenario I could see happening here is a continued rest for another several days right here around the 200 day moving average, while the shorter term moving averages catch up, thereby fortifying underlying support as we carve out a base from which to move higher all while working off our short-term overbought condition.

If you aren't already involved, I would be hesitant to put a lot of money to work right here, due to our short-term overbought stance and being right up against resistance.  However, it is worth noting that we could see an upside breakout on high volume tomorrow as quadruple witching comes into play right as the summer vacation season is coming to a close.  If that happens, I would wait in anticipation of a market pullback to test the would-be breakout level of around 1125 on the S&P, and show signs of support before piling into any positions.


On that note, there are quite a few stocks with nice setups and good fundamentals to back them up.  Here are my top three:

  • Apple (AAPL) - Jim Cramer highlighted this company earlier in the week on his Mad Money show as "the best retailer" in the world.  What he said makes a lot of sense, as their consumer products are functional, user friendly and fashionable.  They sell more dollar inventory per square foot at their retail locations than any other retailer (by a huge margin!), and still have a lot of market share available for capture.  With 12 months earnings potential of over $20 a share, a tremendous amount of cash on hand (I think around $40 for each share of stock in the float!), and a long term growth rate of 15 - 20%, this company is trading on the cheap with respect to the average S&P 500 company price to earnings multiple, let alone a company in such a dominant position with a lot of market share left to capture and its incredible growth rate.  Couple this with the fact that the stock has been consolidating its upward move by resting in a trading range for the past several months, and that the bollinger bands (a measure of volatility) are squeezing on a weekly time frame indicating reduced volatility (where volatility is cyclical), I really think AAPL is one of the best stocks to own right here right now.  Seeing as the Nasdaq is tremendously overbought, waiting to buy on a pullback to around $260 a share would be the prudent thing to do, but honestly this one could break out before that happens.

  • Transocean (RIG) - This deepwater oil driller was smacked down along with the entire oil services industry in the wake of the BP disaster, conjoined with outlooks for reduced economic activity which would correspond with reduced oil exploration and production, a lower price for oil and thus lower day rates for the leasing of a Transocean rig (which is where this company makes its money).  Nevertheless, the company is well positioned as a dominant player in the space with the largest and most capable deepwater drilling fleet in the world.  Even in a slowing economy, the world uses a tremendous amount of oil, RIG should not be hurting for business!  Thanks to the BP disaster, this stock traded down to a 5x PE multiple (currently at around 7x), which is darn low.  Couple the strong fundamental position of this company with a sector rotation that appears to be gaining some traction (watch the OIH for confirmation of money moving into oil services), then note that the volatility (bollinger band complex) has been squeezing on both the daily and weekly time frames, and that RIG broke out to a three and a half month high yesterday (and is out-performing the S&P today), and you have a recipe for a volatility expansion to the upside.  I actually added to this position yesterday, making it the largest in my portfolio (though maintaining a strict set of protective stops on partial position size at $57.54, $55.46 and $49.69 - exceptionally important when you're making a big bet as you don't want it to turn into a BIG loser!).

  • Millicom International (MICC) - This company is in a sweet sector, telecommunications (specifically mobile and broadband) for developing nations throughout Central America.  The fundamental growth in this region should support steadily increasing earnings for this company as cellular and broadband use increases across the continent.  The stock even carries a dividend (yielding only around 1.5%, but still supportive in the event of an aggregate market downdraft).  I bought my initial position at around $90 just a few weeks ago and the stock immediately took off, so this one is still a small position for me and I wouldn't be buying right now... but am eager to add on weakness to the $95 level.


I also own quite a few dividend yielders, but it is exceptionally important to buy these on weakness (which is not right now) so I won't bother going into detail.  Recall that a dividend yielding stock pays a fixed dollar amount per share (typically per quarter), so the cheaper you can buy the shares, the greater your annual dividend will be.  If you get them while they're carving out a base, you can hold them worry free as they swing around since you know you'll be getting the dividends while you wait for capital appreciation.

To summarize, I am looking for the market to mill around its 200 day moving average several more days, giving time for the 20 and 50 day averages to rise and ultimately break out to the upside.  I could also envision tomorrow's quadruple expiration resulting in a premature breakout on heavy volume which will likely result in a subsequent re-test of the 1120 - 1125 level.  However, since we are CURRENTLY at resistance and haven't broken out yet (with the exception of the Nasdaq - go apple!)... be patient, don't go on a buying frenzy and make sure to size your existing positions according to your risk tolerance, leaving room to add to winners if they pull back during a market swoon, and maintaining at least partial stops on larger positions so that you don't feel like a dolt if the market moves back to the lower end of its trading range (some 7% lower).  A pullback on the S&P 500 to 1090 (about 2%), to find support, would be a healthy development in working off our overbought condition and setting us up for a breakout above 1125.

Good luck everyone!


Positions (largest to smallest):

    53% Long RIG, AAPL, KMP, PEP, EMC, PSEC, MICC, CPNO, GLD, WM, PGN
    36% Cash
    11% Lending Club peer-to-peer loan notes (~13% avg APY)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for September 17, 2010 - RIG, AAPL [Re: geokills]
    #13208591 - 09/17/10 08:56 AM (13 years, 4 months ago)

Good morning!  Just wanted to reiterate that RIG continues to exhibit a lot of relative strength on a tricky "quadruple witching" options expiration day.  I am loaded to the gills on the name, with several partial stops as noted (which will be raised as the stock moves - or, triggered should the stock fall below those levels).  Strong markets breed momentum, and that is what I am anticipating from RIG during this volatility expansion, especially if the S&P breaks out (which in fact made a four month intraday high this morning, though we really need to see a close above 1135 to solidify the move).  DON'T PILE IN.  I am already 6% above my average cost basis, so I can afford to be heavily weighted in the name, but if you're thinking of buying a starter position, keep it small because we are at resistance in the market and we could easily correct next week.  You don't want to get shaken out at the bottom of a pullback only to watch the stock take off right after you sell out.  Start small, get in sync with the trend of the market and scale in.  Generally speaking, you should add to winning positions.  Averaging down is OK if that's part of your original plan, but making a habit of adding to losers because you think they're getting "cheaper" is a fools game and can result in enormous losses.


         


Also to reiterate my strong enthusiasm for AAPL stock.  This company really is trading on the cheap, so well positioned to grow its global footprint and continue taking market share with its streamlined sexy products... to not hold at least some Apple in your investment portfolio would be folly.  The iPad just went on sale in China, the world's largest market, and several people who have already bought imported models from Hong Kong, Japan, and the US are lining up for their second and third units.  Apple has restricting purchases to two units per person due to the extreme demand.  They're also slated to build 25 new Apple stores in the country by the end of next year.


         


Quote:

"People haven't been willing to invest this much time and money or engineering in a store before," says the Apple CEO, his feet propped on Apple's boardroom table in Cupertino. "It's not important if the customer knows that. They just feel it. They feel something's a little different."

And not just the architecture. Saks, whose flagship [store] generates sales of $362 per square foot a year. Best Buy stores turn $930 - tops for electronics retailers - while Tiffany & Co. takes in $2,666. Audrey Hepburn liked Tiffany's for breakfast. But at $4,032 [in sales per square foot per year], Apple is eating everyone's lunch.

That astonishing number, from a Sanford C. Bernstein report, is merely the average of Apple's 174 stores, which attract 13,800 visitors a week. (The Fifth Avenue store averages 50,000-plus.) In 2004, Apple reached $1 billion in annual sales faster than any retailer in history; last year, sales reached $1 billion a quarter.

Source: CNN Money




I hate to sound like such a fan boy, but AAPL has consistently produced outsized gains for me, and I'm sorry I didn't pick it up again after the major financial swoon that brought the stock back to $80 just two years ago (today trading at $275).  The stock has been carving out a base as we head into its strongest quarters of the year.  If you don't own any, I'd initiate a starter position in this stock on any weakness in anticipation of blow out results from iPhone 4 and iPad sales going into the holiday season.


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Offlineimachavel
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Re: Stock Update for September 17, 2010 - RIG, AAPL [Re: geokills]
    #13223991 - 09/20/10 08:46 PM (13 years, 4 months ago)

I really hate apple since I found out about what a crappy company foxconn is. really, business should be more fair.


"On Wall Street, stocks rallied again, partly on hopes the Federal Reserve will take new actions to boost the recovery. The Dow Jones industrial average gained more than 145 points to close above 10753. The Nasdaq rose 40 points to close above 2355."


do we have any promise the federal reserve is going to boost actions? can't believe they had a stock rally right before the November elections. if the republicans win, they could change all the policies. if the dems win the policies will remain upon those hopeful for changing policies.


of course i wouldn't expect anything less. i hope the economy revives itself. i just know that i myself have lost a lot of my personal beliefs, now being so desperate for business to take place, that more people will have jobs.


obviously anyone can have business, spending that money and expanding your business and giving people jobs is what really counts. oh well i hope this is good news.


i myself know how many investments are put on hold of fear that something won't sell. brokers these days aren't buying, why would they? if they don't sell, they get no commission and make no money. and how will a broker stay with a company if the company loses money and doesn't make a sale.


anyway i'm drawing this off topic aren't I? proceed.



as negative as i am i think it's awesome to see a small stock trading market on a psychedelic forum. LOL

do what you have to do man.


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Edited by imachavel (09/20/10 08:52 PM)


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OfflineYrat
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Re: Stock Update for September 17, 2010 - RIG, AAPL [Re: imachavel]
    #13225640 - 09/21/10 05:31 AM (13 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

imachavel said:
if the republicans win, they could change all the policies. if the dems win the policies will remain upon those hopeful for changing policies.






you are still trapped in the matrix.  think outside the two party duopoly.  republicans and democrats are two sides to the same coin.  there are no real differences between the two.  expand your mind. 



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to one who is striking at the root."
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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for September 17, 2010 - RIG, AAPL [Re: imachavel]
    #13226027 - 09/21/10 08:58 AM (13 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

imachavel said:

can't believe they had a stock rally right before the November elections.




I've touched on this in my recent posts expecting some upward bias over the near term in the market.  The fact of the matter is, Wall Street and major money managers like it best when Washington politics stay out of business.  This plays directly into a market ramp prior to an election period where it is believed that republicans can gain some of the democrats seats in order to break their majority.  This would result in the increased likelihood of gridlock, or the failure for the two parties to come to agreement on most meaningful legislation.  Despite the fact that this serves to exemplify the broken nature of our government, money managers actually prefer gridlock because it means they won't have to account for complicated new legislation in their forecasting models for the businesses they wish to invest in.

Just look at what happened in the midst of the health care and bank regulation, to stocks in those sectors.  Investors fled, and fast!  Uncertainty breeds weak hands in the stock market... whereas certainty emboldens investors to take on more risk, since the risk, well, isn't quite so risky if you have a reasonable expectation for what will be happening over the next year.  Couple the expectation for more gridlock in congress with Obama's town hall debate yesterday in which he retracted his claws and poised himself in a much more business friendly manner, on top of some un-absolutely-terrible jobs data, and you have a market with some upward momentum.

We got the break out that I was looking for yesterday - and rather painlessly at that.  I am eagerly awaiting for the market to take a rest and re-test the S&P's 200 day moving average (some 2% lower).  On such an event with no new macro news, I intend to be adding strongly to several of my positions since I will be able to clearly define my maximum risk just below the 200 day MA.  Therefore, if I'm wrong, I will be stopped out with only minor losses at worst.  But if I'm right, I can be comfortable holding on since all of my positions are already profitable.


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Offlineimachavel
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Re: Stock Update for September 17, 2010 - RIG, AAPL [Re: Yrat]
    #13226916 - 09/21/10 12:55 PM (13 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Yrat said:
Quote:

imachavel said:
if the republicans win, they could change all the policies. if the dems win the policies will remain upon those hopeful for changing policies.






you are still trapped in the matrix.  think outside the two party duopoly.  republicans and democrats are two sides to the same coin.  there are no real differences between the two.  expand your mind. 







if i take the red pill, i wake up back in my dream world. if i take the green one, i go further into the rabbit hole and understand the democratic system.


yeah whatever i don't care who gets voted for what, keep obama for 8 years why not. but like everyone else i'm going to complain about the crap state of my city etc. thanks


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Offlineimachavel
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Re: Stock Update for September 17, 2010 - RIG, AAPL [Re: geokills]
    #13226945 - 09/21/10 01:02 PM (13 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
Quote:

imachavel said:

can't believe they had a stock rally right before the November elections.




I've touched on this in my recent posts expecting some upward bias over the near term in the market.  The fact of the matter is, Wall Street and major money managers like it best when Washington politics stay out of business.  This plays directly into a market ramp prior to an election period where it is believed that republicans can gain some of the democrats seats in order to break their majority.  This would result in the increased likelihood of gridlock, or the failure for the two parties to come to agreement on most meaningful legislation.  Despite the fact that this serves to exemplify the broken nature of our government, money managers actually prefer gridlock because it means they won't have to account for complicated new legislation in their forecasting models for the businesses they wish to invest in.

Just look at what happened in the midst of the health care and bank regulation, to stocks in those sectors.  Investors fled, and fast!  Uncertainty breeds weak hands in the stock market... whereas certainty emboldens investors to take on more risk, since the risk, well, isn't quite so risky if you have a reasonable expectation for what will be happening over the next year.  Couple the expectation for more gridlock in congress with Obama's town hall debate yesterday in which he retracted his claws and poised himself in a much more business friendly manner, on top of some un-absolutely-terrible jobs data, and you have a market with some upward momentum.

We got the break out that I was looking for yesterday - and rather painlessly at that.  I am eagerly awaiting for the market to take a rest and re-test the S&P's 200 day moving average (some 2% lower).  On such an event with no new macro news, I intend to be adding strongly to several of my positions since I will be able to clearly define my maximum risk just below the 200 day MA.  Therefore, if I'm wrong, I will be stopped out with only minor losses at worst.  But if I'm right, I can be comfortable holding on since all of my positions are already profitable.





i apologize for not multi quoting geokills. i haven't figured it out so i usually post twice. oh well.

well if you can play it safe and take a chance of profiting, why not? more power to you? i apologize for mixing politics and financial statistics. i only comment on these things at once when necessary.

by all means profit. in a failing economy, i believe in profiting for one self. if you bank rich share the wealth. but for 75% of the population who definitely make less than a million or year(don't why i said 75% i'm just keeping a safe margin), i believe this portion of people should make the money they need for their own families and enjoy their own intake.

share with others if you have it, definitely. and if you only have enough for yourself be thankful that you have and give best wishes for everyone else, but understand that you probably aren't making anyone rich giving away your crumbs.

and i really wouldn't say i'm an egotistical person, it's just that no one is going to feed you but yourself


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Stock Update for October 5, 2010 - S&P Breakout [Re: geokills]
    #13294110 - 10/05/10 03:03 PM (13 years, 3 months ago)

Well boy howdy, the S&P 500 breaks out to a new (relative) high, effectively confirming its prior breakout over the 200 day moving average after consolidating for a few weeks which is exactly what long side traders want to see, as the consolidation period helps build a base and strengthen support while allowing the key moving averages to catch up to the price action.  I have steadily been increasing my exposure during this time and am now approximately 75% invested across 14 different stocks (and a smaller portfolio of peer to peer lending notes), all of which are profitable.  Newer additions to my portfolio include:

  • PCX - A coal miner that is just beginning to emerge from a volatility squeeze and looks to have tremendous potential on a technical basis.  Maintaining a sell stop limit at $11.49 and would definitely add to this position on weakness above that level.

  • HUM - A health care play that I picked up at the bottom of its regression channel and looks poised to continue its intermediate term uptrend, though I doubt this one will be a fast mover or a huge winner.  Rather, this one was added in efforts to further diversify my portfolio across different sectors.  Maintaining a sell stop limit at $48.96, a violation of which would invalidate the current uptrending channel.

  • MGM - A casino operator whose stock carries a huge 33.5% short interest.  After a long period of consolidation, it broke above its 200 day moving average today and stands in a sector that has been performing quite well over the past months (be sure to watch LVS for confirmation of the move in this sector).  Maintaining a sell stop limit at $10.89, a violation of which would indicate a fake out or failed breakout above the 200 day moving average for this stock.  However, it seems likely that the shorts will get squeezed on this one and I do plan to add on any weakness above $10.89.

  • I have also added to an existing position in MICC, the south american telecommunications provider that has maintained its uptrend and carries a positive fundamental business position in a strong growth sector.  This helps further diversify my holdings by sector while giving me international exposure to the growing south american region.

  • I trimmed half of my EMC for profit, after the stock showed weakness and violated one of my partial stop levels last week.  I will hold the remaining half unless EMC should fall below $19.74, at which point I would look to begin rebuilding the position on signs of strength below $19.

  • And though it should go without saying, it is important to note that I have moved up my sell stop levels on all positions in accordance with managing my risk and protecting existing profits amid continued market strength.


With all of that said, it would be difficult to be a heavy buyer after today's pop, even though I fully expect the market to continue higher as under-invested major money managers will be forced to buy into the market or risk under-performing the averages, and shorts who were betting on a failed breakout during the consolidation period over the past three weeks are forced to cover.  But even at this altitude, there are opportunities to begin scaling into or adding to existing positions if you are under-invested.

I would focus on the names I've already mentioned, PCX, HUM, MGM, and MICC.  RIG and AAPL, the two stocks I was buying hand over fist during September and are currently my two largest positions, continue to perform well and hold an incredibly strong fundamental basis for solid performance going forward conjoined with a good technical chart setup.  If my positions weren't already so large, I would be a buyer of AAPL below $285 and RIG at $62.50.  I do have protective sell stops on RIG at $61.70 (small), $59.98 (large), and $55.72 (all the rest).  AAPL on the other hand is the only stock in my portfolio that I don't have a protective stop on because it is so darn cheap, growing at 50 - 70% and trading with a PE multiple of only 21.  Understand that the general rule for companies experiencing upward growth is that they will be fairly valued when their PE equals their growth rate -- everyone with an investment portfolio should be holding some AAPL!

To note, precious metals continue to hit highs, with silver really outperforming.  However, with stocks breaking out and the dollar having taken a beating over past months, something will have to give and I would not be surprised to see silver & gold take a bit of a breather here.  There is no doubt that the trend is still to the long side, but if you're eager to buy into this sector I would suggest waiting for a little bit of weakness, or at least a period of relative underperformance with respect to the other asset classes, possibly throughout the balance of the year.


Positions:

    67% Long RIG, AAPL, KMP, MICC, PEP, HUM, PCX, PSEC, CPNO, GLD, WM, EMC, MGM, PGN
    10% Long Unsecured Peer to Peer Lending via LendingClub.com @ ~13% APY
    23% Cash


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