Home | Community | Message Board


This site includes paid links. Please support our sponsors.


Welcome to the Shroomery Message Board! You are experiencing a small sample of what the site has to offer. Please login or register to post messages and view our exclusive members-only content. You'll gain access to additional forums, file attachments, board customizations, encrypted private messages, and much more!

Shop: Bridgetown Botanicals CBD Concentrates   Kraken Kratom Red Vein Kratom   PhytoExtractum Kratom Powder for Sale   Original Sensible Seeds Feminized Cannabis Seeds   Unfolding Nature Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order

Jump to first unread post Pages: < First | < Back | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | Next > | Last >
InvisibleShins
Fun guy
Male User Gallery


Registered: 09/15/04
Posts: 16,337
Re: Stock Update for July 31, 2009 - SDS [Re: geokills]
    #11044607 - 09/12/09 03:44 AM (14 years, 4 months ago)

Anyone profiting from banks recieving bailout funds are in my eyes pigs at the trough.  I refuse to put any money in those funds.  there is no "rally" other than speculation and the funneling in of tax money.  If you have profited from them you are in my eyes, a horrible human being.  A blood-sucking parasite.


--------------------
http://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineYrat
Hello

Registered: 11/08/07
Posts: 2,312
Last seen: 2 years, 10 months
Re: Stock Update for July 31, 2009 - SDS [Re: Shins]
    #11044908 - 09/12/09 06:12 AM (14 years, 4 months ago)

here's another interesting and suggestive article.  for anyone interested, i highly recommend zerohedge.com, several daily articles with insider whistle-blowing


--------------------
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
Strike The Root


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleArmFromTheAbyss
Old Hand

Registered: 10/09/02
Posts: 1,368
Loc: Down here in Babylon
Re: Stock Update for September 10, 2009 - WMT, AMZN [Re: Yrat]
    #11045184 - 09/12/09 07:38 AM (14 years, 4 months ago)

I think they're taking the cash from that insider selling and putting it into treasuries. The yield curve has been flattening-not a good sign.


--------------------


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Invisiblezorbman
blarrr
Male

Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
Re: Stock Update for September 10, 2009 - WMT, AMZN [Re: Yrat]
    #11046585 - 09/12/09 01:32 PM (14 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

insider selling/buying ratio hit a whopping ratio of 95x this week. week before that it was 62x, while in august it was 31x.  are those in the know bailing out before the second half of the storm?




Also notice that this rally came on very low volume. Not a good sign.

And I love zero hedge.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleGI_Luvmoney
Vote Republican!
 User Gallery

Registered: 05/10/09
Posts: 939
Re: Stock Update for October 22, 2008 - FCX, GE, SDS [Re: Ferris]
    #11541653 - 11/28/09 09:04 AM (14 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Ferris said:
I wouldn't touch anything Ford




XKN more than tripled since it was mentioned, just before your post.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=xkn&sid=0&o_symb=xkn&freq=1&time=8&x=15&y=12


--------------------


Edited by GI_Luvmoney (11/28/09 09:19 AM)


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 6 hours, 29 minutes
Stock Update for December 2nd, 2009 - BAC, AMED [Re: geokills]
    #11571567 - 12/02/09 06:11 PM (14 years, 1 month ago)

I've been extremely lax in updating here, I know... but I suppose nobody really missed it! :crazy2:

I have maintained a largely neutral positioning since my last update a couple of months ago, balancing my longs with various short ETFs and a large short position on Henry Schein (HSIC).  The ProShares UltraShort Russell2000 (TWM) has proven to be a valuable tool in hedging losses during the downdrafts, as it has generally been more volatile than the S&P 500, and therefore has provided greater protection (or equal protection with less capital) since it tends to fall more than the S&P benchmark does on any given down day... of course, today had to be an exception!  The Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X (FAZ) has also helped me avoid the pain from the pull back in Bank of America (BAC) over the past couple of months, BAC being my largest position.

While the market has remained uncannily strong, I cannot imagine it will go very much higher before experiencing a pretty major cooling period.  Even if it weren't for the fact that we have double digit unemployment, the lowest Fed Funds rate in addition to an incredible (though finite) amount of stimulus from government just to avoid a total catastrophe... even if the economy was actually doing good... a 60% rise in the equity markets is a HUGE move.  Granted, this type of momentum often feeds on itself, but at some point reality is going to set in, and the finite cost-cutting efforts taken by so many corporations over this past year to boost their earnings reports will fade, as will federal stimulus.  The consumer will be hard pressed for discretionary cash, both savings rates and marginal tax rates will increase and I do not see 2010 continuing the uber up-trend of 2009, not by a long shot.

Here's my positioning at present, after having withdrawn about 25% of the total value of my trading account as of a month ago in order to finance a personal business venture.  I'm actually quite a bit less invested than I was just a short while ago.  For one, I took some profits in my Bank of America (BAC) position up some 35%, and closed my remaining half-position in Amedisys (AMED) up 26%.

Discretionary Portfolio as of 12/2/2009:
  • 48.4% Cash
  • 22.3% Bank of America
  • -21.7% SHORT Henry Schein (HSIC)
  • 18.8% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 11.3% PepsiCo (PEP)
  • -10.2% SHORT Energizer (ENR)
  • 10% BP plc (BP)
  • 6.6% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
  • 6.0% ProShares UltraShort Russell2000 (TWM)
  • 5.1% ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (SDS)
  • 4.2% Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X (FAZ)


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Invisiblememes
Blessed


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
Re: Stock Update for December 2nd, 2009 - BAC, AMED [Re: geokills]
    #11572211 - 12/02/09 07:38 PM (14 years, 1 month ago)

I still peek in here from time to time geo.  All of what you say is above my head -- but i'm picking up bits and pieces :smile:



Keep up the sound investing :thumbup:


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Invisiblememes
Blessed


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
Re: Stock Update for July 31, 2009 - SDS [Re: Shins]
    #11572215 - 12/02/09 07:39 PM (14 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Shins said:
Anyone profiting from banks recieving bailout funds are in my eyes pigs at the trough.  I refuse to put any money in those funds.  there is no "rally" other than speculation and the funneling in of tax money.  If you have profited from them you are in my eyes, a horrible human being.  A blood-sucking parasite.



Wow.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 6 hours, 29 minutes
Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2009 - ENR [Re: memes]
    #11575909 - 12/03/09 10:24 AM (14 years, 1 month ago)

:lol:, he's just jealous!  Keep in mind that banks are paying back the government, and several have already done so with interest.  In essence, the idea that the Troubled Asset Relief Program (aka the bank bailout) was an investment on behalf of taxpayers does appear to be materializing.  Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley are three big players that come to mind in having made good on taxpayer's investment.  In fact, Goldman's repayment of the $10 billion in TARP funds it had taken afforded taxpayers a 23% annualized return.  Bank of America, my largest financial holding, just yesterday announced their plans to repay the TARP funds they received by next summer.

I do understand the frustration when everyday people are losing their jobs, homes, and in general having significant trouble making ends meet, to see large banks who made huge mistakes get a very significant helping hand from the taxpayer funded government.  But I do not quite understand why the animosity should be aimed at individual investors who see the bailout for what it is, an opportunity to recoup some losses by recognizing that the financial system will not be collapsing in the immediate future.  While I have made a little bit of money from my investment in Bank of America over the past year, by no means has it made up for the money I've lost both in other stock investments not to mention the $15,000 I lost when my brick-and-mortar supplier for my private retail business went bankrupt in January 2008!.. not to mention the opportunity cost of my brand's lost momentum by running out of my most popular products with no manufacturer lined up to re-stock the inventory.

Anyway, enough of the tangent. 

  • A quick note on Energizer (ENR).  I was forced out of the short position I started to build in this name as shares rose above my specified stop limit at $60.28 this morning.  However, I am revisiting the position.  My reasons for shorting Energizer include its very poor earnings report last quarter, which adds merit to the thesis that rechargeable lithium or NiMH batteries will continue to kill the alkaline battery market, as will generic competition from other alkaline battery suppliers.  Just yesterday, CVS stores announced they would no longer be carrying Energizer alkaline batteries.  Advertising costs will rise and the company's leveraged balance sheet (i.e. debt ridden) effectively ties the company's hands with respect to diversifying their business.  In a nutshell, the business model is flawed and ENR doesn't seem to have the time nor capital to reconfigure itself before it continues to lose market share.

    With this in mind, I am re-shorting a small amount of ENR today at $60.50, and will plan to add to the short at $61.50 and $62.50.  I will keep a stop limit just above $63, such that if the shares manage to cross above that limit, the position will be automatically closed as that will signal a break of the 50 day moving average, as well as the 15 and 20 week moving averages to the upside.


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleAroundtheSon
Learning to See
Male User Gallery


Registered: 01/11/07
Posts: 4,427
Loc: Midwest.
Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2009 - ENR [Re: geokills]
    #11578246 - 12/03/09 05:05 PM (14 years, 1 month ago)

Nice update. I still see potential up-side, but I, like you, know that this cannot last forever.

If you don't mind my asking, what type of retail are you in to?


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 6 hours, 29 minutes
Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2009 - ENR [Re: AroundtheSon]
    #11578572 - 12/03/09 05:47 PM (14 years, 1 month ago)

I sell audio speakers for the do it yourself community.  Just the raw drivers.  My customers are responsible for tailoring their own custom enclosures to each individual driver I offer in order to obtain optimal performance in their given application, be it home or car audio.


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleFlop Johnson
Praise Skatballah
Male


Registered: 09/22/05
Posts: 13,789
Loc: TX
Re: Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: geokills]
    #11578592 - 12/03/09 05:50 PM (14 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

YawningAnus said: (1 year ago)

I am wary of all this push for gold.




Bet youre not so weary now :wink:


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineYrat
Hello

Registered: 11/08/07
Posts: 2,312
Last seen: 2 years, 10 months
Re: Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: Flop Johnson]
    #11589542 - 12/05/09 11:38 AM (14 years, 1 month ago)

this is a little off topic, but i thought it somewhat relevant.  it highlights some of the shenanigans in the markets right now, and the utter failure of the SEC to regulate anything:

Quote:

Mary Schapiro Must Immediately Investigate The FDIC's Confidential Information Leak In Another Blatant Insider Trading Case, Then Resign

The degree of insider trading in this market is getting ridiculous. And the strangest thing is those who are executing on blatantly obvious material, non-public insider information, are no longer concerned the least bit about getting caught as they realize that the "mighty" SEC will do nothing against them, courtesy of the example the SEC has set by finding absolutely nobody "responsible" (except, of course, the regulator's own future employers who thus get immunity from prosecution) for the greatest market heist in history in which over $5 trillion has been transferred from the middle class to the Wall Street oligarchy (future providers of paychecks for SEC staffers).

Today's grotesque example of the SEC's futility to act as even a modest deterrent to insider trading activity: New York Community Bancorp (which, just so happens, is a $602 million recipient of TLGP debt), whose stock surged in the final minutes of trading for reasons (then) unknown. As reader QevolveQ pointed out at 5:30 pm, the activity in both the stock and the calls of the company was many standard deviations away from average and raised major red flags. Those questions were quickly put to rest when it became known at 6:33 pm that NYB would in fact receive FDIC subsidies to acquire newly failed AmTrust Bank in a transaction that would be "immediately accretive to earnings." And how wouldn't it be:

   
Quote:

Under the terms of the agreement, the Community Bank did not acquire any of AmTrust Bank’s  non-performing loans serviced by AmTrust Bank or any other real estate owned; construction, land, or development loans; private-label securities, or mortgage servicing rights, nor did it acquire any of the assets or assume any of the obligations of the holding company.




No, those would conveniently be funded by Ms. Bair herself. The cost to the FDIC, and US taxpayers, to make NYB a richer enterprise: $2 billion. This is value that will go straight to the bank's bottom line. As a result of this middle-class subsidy it was a certainty that its shares would spike.

The smoking gun here comes straight from a quick observation of NYB's intraday P/V chart: the jump at 3:24pm on statistically significant volume is a clear signal that someone was fully aware of the soon to be announced transaction:



Furthermore, as QeQ highlights, "8,933 of the Dec 12 calls traded vs. 2,244 OI, finishing +300% on the day." A very solid return for a few hours of trading. The block trades are visible below: one set of 2,500 Dec $12 calls bought at $0.20, followed promptly by two more 2,500 blocks around $0.25. With the stock poised to open much higher than its closing price, someone is sure to make a killing.



It is practically certain that the NYB stock and option transactions came courtesy of a insider tip. And as NYB is both a ward of the state, courtesy of its TLGP umbilical cord, and as the bank would soon become $2 billion richer as a result of some more middle class-to-Wall Street fund flows, it is very likely that the FDIC itself is the source of such leak. We truly hope that one of D.C.'s most ineffective and useless females (if grossly, grossly overpaid for her "work" in 2008) will analyze whether the agency headed by another such female has been responsible for yet more illegal insider trading activity. That the government is only capable of promoting unpunished criminal activity would not surprise anyone at this point. And as this will be one of those cases when everything is handed to the SEC on a silver platter, we don't doubt that some minor scapegoat will be put away to make it seem like the most worthless organization in the world earns its $1 billion annual budget fair and square. What is chilling is the complete disdain that insider traders now flaunt when it comes to fear of retribution by the "regulators." And when Ms. Mary "$3.3 Million" Schapiro is done catching any and all masterminds behind this dastardly deed, we would all be very grateful if she could leave her keys, her chauffeur, and her masseuse as she packs her banker box full of Wall Street indulgences on the way out of public office once and for all - Ms. Schapiro, the public does not want you betraying its trust any longer. Now please go work for Goldman Sachs where your continued betrayal of U.S. interests will be welcome and compensated much better than the meager $3.3 million you made at Finra. The sooner you get into a job that requires efforts more consummate with your diminished capacity, the sooner you can continue counting the $5-$25 million in cash payouts you slurped up from FINRA's defined benefit plans.




--------------------
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
Strike The Root


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 6 hours, 29 minutes
Stock Update for December 7, 2009 - AAPL [Re: geokills]
    #11602986 - 12/07/09 12:40 PM (14 years, 1 month ago)

Here's an idea for a TRADE on Apple Inc (AAPL) - Currently at ~$190 a share.
  • Go long (buy) before Friday, IF shares fall to $186
  • Set a stop loss IF shares fall below $184 (defined risk of ~1%)
  • Expect Apple to hold its long term (20 week) moving average and retrace a move back to $200 a share (defined profit potential of ~8%).

                   

                         
While it is true that Apple has broken a key short term (50 day) moving average, the long term trend remains intact.  Since the long term (20 week moving average) trend line coincides with the October & November lows around $185 in the stock, this area should provide some solid support.  Anecdotal evidence further supports this theory through a report released by Morgan Stanley today indicating that Apple's PC sales were up over 60% so far this holiday season.  Because the market overall is experiencing pressure (and rightfully so), this could open up the opportunity to scoop up APPL at the target price with the idea that it can hold support while the aggregate market works off its short-term overbought condition, thereby allowing AAPL to rally into the end of the year as holiday sales reach their peak.

Thought you might like to know... I have this exact trade setup for both my discretionary and retirement accounts, as the risk/reward ratio is just too good not to try!


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Edited by geokills (12/07/09 01:08 PM)


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineCosmicLion
Organical
 User Gallery


Registered: 03/04/09
Posts: 783
Last seen: 4 years, 11 months
Re: Stock Update for December 7, 2009 - AAPL [Re: geokills]
    #11628626 - 12/11/09 08:08 AM (14 years, 1 month ago)

Nice play on AAPL

Hopefully it will reach the $200 TP


--------------------
:peace:    :peace:

  Earth's Essence


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineCosmicLion
Organical
 User Gallery


Registered: 03/04/09
Posts: 783
Last seen: 4 years, 11 months
Re: Stock Update for December 7, 2009 - AAPL [Re: geokills]
    #11630162 - 12/11/09 01:29 PM (14 years, 1 month ago)

Here is a follow up on the AAPL trade idea.

Chart 1:



This first chart illustrates how price broke its 9-month Long-Term trend line as it made its way to the bold green 55-day exponential moving average (EMA).

The moving average provides a good dynamic support 'zone' while the $190.00 line provides good psychological support that has recent historical significance. All 0.00 values provide typically good resistance and support(Ex. $70.00 $80.00 $90.00 - $120.00 $130.00 $140.00)Look for sustained historical significance to allocate relevance to each line independently.

Entry would have been made around $190 once that green indecision candle landed right on the $190 line. As price heads north it runs into a major moving-average resistance zone as it makes it way towards that previous black trend line. $200.00 has significant psychological impact, as do all double-zero numbers. To play it safe a Take Profit could have been set at $98.

4.20% Profit in Two days. Just have to wait for a prime setup!

Chart 2:


AAPL has now entered into consolidation and emerged a wedge that is turning into a triangle pattern. Wedges & Triangle patterns can be played by entering in on a bounce off the triangle trend line. Consolidation is when a stock goes sideways after a significant run. The price is stabilizing as investors gain enough confidence to keep the uptrend going or if it has been too good to be true and its time to get out of the good rush. This type of consolidation, after a long bull run, is ideal for playing sideways triangle patterns as price typically looks for direction uncertainly for a period of time.

Don't forget, this is December. Price uncertainty is the name of the game this time of year. When things are uncertain investors look to trade patterns. A sideways market in a dull season will yield interesting pattern plays.

For instance, if price drops back down to $190.00 it will hit the triangle's trend line as well as the $190.00 psychological support level. A look into the recent history will show the $190.00 level has provided strong support. In combination with the triangle trend line price has a decent chance of being driven up as APPL consolidates.

The Target Profit would be near the top of the triangle trend line. Price could shoot has high as $205 or $210 but the $200.00 "double-zero" resistance poses a significant psychological threat.

A good play would be to enter at $190 and exit around $198 again. A better play would be to enter at at $190 and exit half at $198 and half at $205. This would provide a solid combination of profit with potential. Keep an eye on $210.00 as it provides psychological resistance that may generate a "false breakout" of the triangle formation.  A good stop loss would be $186 or so. Enough to provide cushion room around the $190.00 zone. If you use two profit targets, once the first one is reached move the remaining stop-loss to the point at which you entered at. Guaranteed profit!

Chart 3:


Don't forget about old and significant trend lines when doing an analysis. This chart shows how the 9-month major trend line will interfere with the current triangle formation.

If price rises very rapidly it would be more likely to encounter the trend line and loose steam close to $200. If price rises slowly over a week or more it could climb close to $205-$210.

Triangle patterns can be fun but watch out for false breakouts don't expect goals to be reached exactly. If a false breakout occurs a new pattern will likely but not always need to be created.

4.20% - 5.7% profit potential in a weeks times. Not so bad!


--------------------
:peace:    :peace:

  Earth's Essence


Edited by CosmicLion (12/11/09 03:29 PM)


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 6 hours, 29 minutes
Stock Update for December 12, 2009 - ENR. JPM [Re: CosmicLion]
    #11635749 - 12/12/09 11:19 AM (14 years, 1 month ago)

Thank you for the contribution and analysis CosmicLion!

I did not enter the Apple trade as indicated, since it never reached my buy level.

Since trading volume is going to be very thin until the New Year, I probably won't be doing too much in the market, though I did add to my Energizer (ENR) short at $62.50 as previously indicated, based on the thesis that this company is in the midst of a secular downtrend on account of increasing competition from rechargeable batteries, its leveraged balance sheet and the potential to lose more retail sales contracts with major outlets (such as CVS, who announced their decision to stop selling Energizer products earlier this month).

I also started a small position in JPMorgan Chase (JPM) for my retirement account, at $40.90 a share.  This is now one of the largest banks in the United States, that will likely be one of the first major banks to increase their dividend (hinted at by management several times now).  They have a conservative reserve policy (5% of total loans) and their exposure seems particularly well positioned (more consumer & early recovery exposure as opposed to commercial real estate).


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineCosmicLion
Organical
 User Gallery


Registered: 03/04/09
Posts: 783
Last seen: 4 years, 11 months
Re: Stock Update for December 7, 2009 - AAPL [Re: CosmicLion]
    #11785478 - 01/07/10 06:27 PM (14 years, 24 days ago)

Quote:

CosmicLion said:
Keep an eye on $210.00 as it provides psychological resistance that may generate a "false breakout" of the triangle formation.




Indeed this was the case!

The $190 entry level was never hit but on a side note the triangle broke out and as predicted price has leveled out at the $210 area since around Christmas.

Psychological resistance is often the strongest.


--------------------
:peace:    :peace:

  Earth's Essence


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 6 hours, 29 minutes
Stock Update for January 8, 2009 - New Strategy - GS, HBAN, AAPL, PCLN, GMCR [Re: CosmicLion]
    #11790781 - 01/08/10 04:30 PM (14 years, 23 days ago)

Well I had some nice trades on JPM and GS.  I was stopped out of GS on today's pullback for a small gain, and JPM will be stopped if it falls another 60 cents or so, for a 8% gain.

I've been changing my investment style quite a bit recently, in line with the thesis that 2010 can see a continuation of the incredible uptrend of 2009, but that the out years (and perhaps even starting in mid/late 2010) will likely be dampened by negative macro-economic conditions such as higher savings rates, higher tax rates, a weakened consumer and continued unemployment.  There really isn't much in the way of resistance that will prevent the S&P500 from testing 1200 this year.

It is with this thesis in mind that I am embracing a trading posture for the time being, in efforts to capitalize on short-term trend continuation rather than build a portfolio of long-term holds.  Nevertheless, I plan to continue holding sizable positions in high yielders such as BP (BP) and KMP (KMP), both of which I am up over 40% on already not including the handsome dividends.

However, I've cut some of the languishing positions in order to focus that capital on short term trades with tight stops, as I did with Goldman Sachs (GS) this past week.  GILD has been jettisoned, as have all my broad based leveraged short ETF's, that I was using as a hedge during a time that I was figuring out what my next move would be!  I will still play the short side, but I aim to concentrate on specific names that I believe could be weak, rather than the aggregate market - which has obviously been very strong and made me feel pretty dumb for holding those short ETF's!

My current positioning:
  • Short Henry Schein (HSIC)
  • Short Energizer (ENR)
  • Short Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR)

  • Long PepsiCo (PEP)
  • Long BP Plc (BP)
  • Long Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • Long JPMorgan (JPM)
  • Long Bank of America (BAC)


As you can see, I am fairly well concentrated in energy and the financials for the time being.  The energy plays are largely dividend plays, and the financials appear to be breaking out here, though they took a little rest today and may continue to consolidate next week before their next leg higher.

I am planning to re-enter Goldman Sachs (GS) at $170 - $172, where I anticipate it will test its 50 day moving average.  This is a fairly safe entry, as you can define your risk by placing a stop somewhere between $167 - $169... and if the stock confirms the breakout above the 50 day moving average by bouncing higher, it should be able to hit $180 with little resistance, and I believe could fairly easily go on to test its 2009 highs above $190.

I am also interested in a short term trade on Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) should they come back to test the $4 level.  Defining risk at yesterday's low ($3.83) where the stock first broke out of its sideways consolidation, with the potential to see it test $4.50 - $4.75 in relatively short order if the breakout is confirmed and $3.83 holds as support.

As money has been rotating out of technology and into industrials/financials over the past week (as seen by the relative performance of the Nasdaq to the S&P500 and DJIA), I am keeping an eye on two technology stocks to add to my portfolio as intermediate to longer term positions, after I see that the current bout of negative pressure on the technology sector as a whole is abating.

Apple (AAPL)... we all know it, most of us love it.  I just got an iPhone a month and a half ago and I can't hardly tell you how convenient it has made my organizational and communicative tasks (though the AT&T network could sure stand to be improved!).  This company is a leading innovator in the technology space, and with iPhone's taking rapid share of the market, iPod's already owning the portable MP3 market, and the new iTablet coming out in the near future, I think Apple continues to deliver and will probably beat earnings when they report on the 25th of this month.  It's going to be hard to find an entry on this one before earnings, as a lot of other people are anticipating a good report as well... but if AAPL can fall closer to its 50 day moving average around $201, I'll start building a position.

Priceline (PCLN) fits well into the thesis of a weak consumer that will prefer to hunt for a deal by bidding rather than paying the asking price for airfare/hotels/etc.  The stock is definitely in a long term uptrend, and it has historically paid off to pick up shares when the stock tags its 50 day moving average.  Well it's practically there already, and I will look to start building a position on weakness if PCLN can tag its 15 week moving average, at around $200.  My risk will be defined by the 20 week moving average, which will result in the position being stopped out if shares fall below $190 or so.

Lastly, I'll make a quick note on a recent addition to my portfolio, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) has been a tremendous momentum name since the beginning of the year.  If you look at a weekly chart, you can clearly see the megaphone pattern that has developed from May until present day, where GMCR has produced an increasing series of higher highs alongside a more slowly increasing series of higher lows.  Since we are at the top of this bullish "megaphone" (seen by drawing a line across the highs and a separate line connecting the lows), it makes sense to short this name here, especially since the overall market is slightly overbought and the jobs data that came out today wasn't all that great.  I shorted GMCR at $81.50, my risk is defined with a trailing stop that is currently set to trigger a cover at $83.91, and if GMCR does pull back as anticipated, my target to cover will be close to $65, the support line that marks the bottom of the megaphone pattern previously discussed.

Oh and I almost forgot!.. in fact, I did forget about this today otherwise I'd already own it!  The homebuilders appear to be breaking out here after some sideways consolidation.  I am keeping my eye on Brookfield Homes Corp (BHS), as a speculative stock that could really rip.  This one trades on very thin volume, and because it trades so slowly, it would take about 40 days at average volume for all the people who are short this stock to cover their positions!  You can see the squeeze happening already, with volume spiking up HUGE and the stock up 8% today.  I only hope that I'll find an entry here (on a pullback to $8.10 on Monday?) and be able to ride this short squeeze if the homebuilders continue to see strength.  You can keep an eye on the XHB in order to determine how this sector is performing in aggregate.  The chart looks good, and if XHB can breakout above the September high at $16.75, the shorts on BHS are likely to get very squeezed and we could see a parabolic move through $10 without much resistance until around $12.


As you can see, my strategy has changed quite a bit over the past couple of months that I have neglected this thread.  I've realized how important it is to be flexible, concentrate the majority of effort on defining risk for any given trade and to make sure to cut losers as soon as your original thesis is proven wrong (which is why it is so important to define risk and set your stops in the first place)!  Of course, I'll always make an effort to hold some high yielding stocks for income, and to keep each individual trading position size less than 15% of my portfolio in order to further minimize my risk and aid in diversification.  But there is just too much short term money to be made right now, and I'll be damned if I'm not going to try my hand at making it.


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineTrance104
Businessman
Male

Registered: 01/20/09
Posts: 258
Last seen: 10 years, 6 months
Re: Stock Update for January 8, 2009 - New Strategy - GS, HBAN, AAPL, PCLN, GMCR [Re: geokills]
    #11791753 - 01/08/10 06:36 PM (14 years, 23 days ago)

BAC will be your best choice long term. I bet you will double your money depending on how long you are in it.


--------------------
Can't stop the Trance! Dance!! DANCE!!!

A good archive of Trance music to listen to when you want to relax or trip with.
www.trance104.com


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Jump to top Pages: < First | < Back | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | Next > | Last >

Shop: Bridgetown Botanicals CBD Concentrates   Kraken Kratom Red Vein Kratom   PhytoExtractum Kratom Powder for Sale   Original Sensible Seeds Feminized Cannabis Seeds   Unfolding Nature Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order


Similar ThreadsPosterViewsRepliesLast post
* Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects
( 1 2 3 4 ... 500 501 )
geokillsA 250,333 10,002 01/27/24 05:04 PM
by geokills
* Does this look legit? The24HourMC 1,559 1 03/01/10 02:43 PM
by geokills
* Helium Network [US]: Low Cost Mobile Service with ROI for Providing Distributed Connectivity geokillsA 208 0 01/21/24 10:48 AM
by geokills
* Pretty good interest on my savings, but best strat? skOsH 190 4 01/21/24 03:40 PM
by Bungmurphy

Extra information
You cannot start new topics / You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled / BBCode is enabled
Moderator: geokills, automan
296,586 topic views. 0 members, 2 guests and 1 web crawlers are browsing this forum.
[ Show Images Only | Sort by Score | Print Topic ]
Search this thread:

Copyright 1997-2024 Mind Media. Some rights reserved.

Generated in 0.034 seconds spending 0.007 seconds on 15 queries.