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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for July 16, 2009 - POT, AN, UNG [Re: geokills]
    #10689457 - 07/16/09 05:52 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Lots of buying power in the market today.  Could carry us up to 990 on the S&P in the next few sessions, but I still cannot reconcile how the market will maintain these levels in the face of rising unemployment, higher tax rates, continuing foreclosures and tight credit/delinquency. 

  • Sold SHORT another 50 shares of Potash (POT) at $92 with a $3.50 trailing stop.  If this thing goes north of $95.50, I'm out of here!  I still think we see it trickle down in front of the earnings report next week... however the market has been surprisingly strong over the last couple of days and the rising tide could lift all ships, including even the leaky ones like Potash.

  • Sold SHORT 300 shares of AutoNation (AN) at $17.80.  An already strapped consumer facing less credit and rising unemployment; I do not expect this US auto retailer to fare well.  I plan to wait for this position to play out over the next 6 - 18 months.

  • I'm out of UNG.  Didn't like the working methodology behind this ETF and wanted to raise my cash position.



Discretionary Portfolio as of 7/16/2009:
  • 48.8% Cash
  • 15.6% Bank of America (BAC)
  • 14.3% IntercontinentalExchange (ICE)
  • 12.3% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 8.7% WalMart (WMT)
  • 7.0% Pepsico (PEP)
  • 7.0% Amedisys (AMED)
  • 5.8% BP plc (BP)
  • 4.7% UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)
  • 4.6% Gilead Sciences (GILD)

  • -10.8% SHORT AutoNation (AN)
  • -18.1% SHORT Potash (POT)


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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for July 16, 2009 - POT, AN, UNG [Re: geokills]
    #10708578 - 07/20/09 10:06 AM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Oh, ok. Let me put some charts together this evening.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for July 22, 2009 - POT, AN, ICE, TWM [Re: Hotnuts]
    #10722577 - 07/22/09 06:56 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Thanks, I would appreciate it!

I was stopped out of my AN and POT shorts.  The market has been relentlessly strong... but it seems like the bullishness is getting a little overwhelming with most of the major media pundits exclaiming how unstoppable and un-shortable the current market environment is; and as such I would expect some measure of a pullback in the near future.  In accordance, I have cut my exposure in ICE (still holding 40 shares up 4%), and have also initiated a small position in TWM (2x short on the Russell 2000).

Discretionary Portfolio as of 7/22/2009:
  • 38.3% Cash
  • 11.5% Bank of America (BAC)
  • 9.7% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 7.0% WalMart (WMT)
  • 5.8% Amedisys (AMED)
  • 5.6% Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)
  • 5.4% Pepsico (PEP)
  • 4.9% ProShares UltraShort Russell2000 (TWM)
  • 4.7% BP plc (BP)
  • 3.7% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
  • 3.6% ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (SDS)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for July 23, 2009 [Re: geokills]
    #10726741 - 07/23/09 12:29 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Good thing I was stopped out of my AN and POT shorts... I learned my lesson with my major loss in Capital One (COF) earlier this year and will no longer hold shorts in my portfolio without protective stops.

We are experiencing a major squeeze in the market today, as the bears get knocked silly and the shorts run for cover.  I don't want to do too much on such a ferocious day as today, as the momentum could very well carry over into the following trading session.  However, it should be noted that the S&P 500 is now up almost 12% in only 10 trading sessions; likewise with the Nasdaq showing incredible strength over the couple of weeks.

If you have some long trading positions that have been making you money, it would be advised to sell at least a little bit when we see this type of extension.  We have broken through to the upside and crossed over key technical levels, however the fundamental stasis of the economy is still in dire straits.

In so far as my own playbook, I expect that we may tag 1000 on the S&P 500 in the near future, however do not expect us to hold above it for very long before taking another swoon to the downside.  I will be looking to close out the rest of my IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) position soon.  Based on weakness at Danaher (DHR), a scientific and technical instrument company that lowered guidance and showed a 15% drop in core organic growth; I will be looking to short Henry Schein (HSIC), a medical supply company that provides equipment for office based practitioners particularly in the dental field, at $50 a share.  HSIC has had an incredible run from the March lows, and given weakness in related industries, I would expect this one to have trouble posting gains going forward.

Though I'm still making money, I'm not keeping up with the market today.  But rather than engage in the madness of blindly chasing performance, I will bide my time and do my research, setting my buy and sell points and re-evaluate as each new day comes.  If anything, today is a day to sell and not to buy.  More appropriately, today is a day to watch and wait.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for July 23, 2009 - ICE, TWM, HSIC [Re: geokills]
    #10728493 - 07/23/09 06:08 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Closed out my last 40 shares of IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) at the close for a 9% profit.
Also picked up 50 shares of the ProShares UltraShort Russell 2000 (TWM) at $36 to add to the 80 I picked up yesterday.

I have an open limit order to short sell 200 shares of Henry Schein (HSIC) at $50.



Discretionary Portfolio as of 7/23/2009:
  • 40.9% Cash
  • 11.9% Bank of America (BAC)
  • 9.7% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 7.4% ProShares UltraShort Russell 2000 (TWM)
  • 6.9% WalMart (WMT)
  • 5.9% Amedisys (AMED)
  • 5.5% Pepsico (PEP)
  • 4.8% BP plc (BP)
  • 3.8% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
  • 3.4% ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (SDS)


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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for July 23, 2009 - ICE, TWM, HSIC [Re: geokills]
    #10728960 - 07/23/09 07:32 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Hang in there! I'm having problems with my charting software. :thumbdown:


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Offlinetrunksan
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Re: Stock Update for July 23, 2009 - ICE, TWM, HSIC [Re: Hotnuts]
    #10736863 - 07/25/09 05:22 AM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Hi guys! I'm glad that his forum was made, unofrtunanetly I have a very hectic life and haven't been visiting the shroomery regularly BUT THIS WILL CHANGE WITH THIS FORUM!!!!....

As a tripper that spents a lot of his time reading financial news and has a small amount of money in the stock market (I'm 25 YO and have about 25.000 euro in equity markets) I'm glad that I have found a place to concerse with fellow shroomerites on financial issues.

The obvious issue though is that I don't live in the US in fact I live in Greece (HELLAS as in location) so I'm not really aware of the details in the American market. Being in a small peripheral market means a lot of volatility and HEAVY influence on foreign investors and foreign markets so this will be another place to keep an eye on news since our market seems to react to international trends.


The only way I might I might be able to contribute is by giving a more international perspective on the topic.


My investment history: started investing in equity about 1.5 years ago just as the financial crisis started to hit the country (which I thought was a great opportunity). I had about 10.000 euro available that my mother gave me when I turned 18 and 2-3 thousand of my own.

Just as most investors the first year was a disaster and 2008 was a very bad year for most people anyway. I was very reckless with my approach.... I invested most of the capital on a single company (MIG if anyone knows it), which in fact hold it's own very well during the year but my overall srategy .... well there simply wasn't any strategy.

Anyway after learing my lessons the hard way I stated putting new capital every month (I try to put 500 to 1000 euro every month) and READ ALOT, READ ALOT,, READ ALOT,, READ ALOT,, READ ALOT,, READ ALOT,, READ ALOT!!!!!!!!!! I can't stress how important it is to be informed and STUDY all the time, it's the only way to survive in the game.

During the March rally I made more than 40% on a lot of shares.. in fact if you exclude the initial investment on MIG I've made a good profit on most other shares.


My general strategy (not very different to what Geokill posted on the first post):


I try to keep 30-50% cash at all times

I only invest in companies that I believe in and I know they will be around and be succesful in the next 2-3 years.

However, I do some small short day trades if I see that there's a lot of pressure on certain stocks, but with little value, no more than 1000 euro.

Stop loss at around 8-10% unless I'm aware that there will be positive news about the company soon

When I pick a new share to invest in I start with 500 euro and gradually increase, If I see that things aren't going well or just have a bad feeling I sell everyrhing and don't look back for a few months

I FOLLOW MY INTUITION - It seems irrational but I find that intuition seems to have more success rather than logic

I TRY TO HAVE AN UNORTHDOX APPROACH - By unorthodox I don't mean non-methodical or reckless or going against the current, just following correlations that might be wierd but seem to work (this is very wierd to explain and it goes with what I say about intuition)


My portfolio at the moment (you won't know the shares so I's just be general):

9% on an India equity fund
5% on a Chinese equity fund
5% on a renewable energy equity fund
5% on Korean equtiy fund

(YES I LIKE DEVELOPING MARKETS AND I INTEND TO KEEP THESE FOR MORE THAN 5 YEARS)

the rest is spread in the banking,construction,gambling and telecomunications sectors.... either in market leaders or new up and comers.

That't it for now... I know I'm not really helpful to most people but I'm glad to be here!


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for July 23, 2009 - ICE, TWM, HSIC [Re: trunksan]
    #10737294 - 07/25/09 09:42 AM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Good to have you here trunksan.  Are you invested only in ETF's, or do you also hold positions in individual companies?  What companies?


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Offlinetrunksan
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Re: Stock Update for July 23, 2009 - ICE, TWM, HSIC [Re: geokills]
    #10737953 - 07/25/09 12:38 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

I hold positions in Greek companies I guess you wouldn't know them but here it goes:

Marfin Investement Group (the company where I have the most invested and also learned the hard way that the stock market must be treated with respect) biggest private employer in counrty has investments in banking,tourism, health and food companies

Marfin Popular Bank - part of MIG and also my employer... Small up and rising Bank from Cyprus)

Inralot - 2nd biggest developer of gaming(gambling) platforms in the world (gets a lot of contracts in the US lately)

Gek Terna and Ellaktor - 2 biggest construction companies in Greece, they get a lot of work from the governement and the middle east and both are starting to invest in energy production (renewable and gas mostly), tranpwater management and real esteate (obviously).

OTE - Former national telecomunications company, now a subsidiary of Deutche Telekom (has been under a lot of pressure the past months since DT wants to buy the government's share as cheap as possible after a november 2009 so it's a chance to buy cheap IMHO)

TEGO - This is a publishing company.... TOTALLY INCOMPETENT MANAGEMENT but the company is SO SO SO cheap in market capitalization and I make a small buck from trades (you could call it a penny stock but not exactly) may be bought soon since they hold one of the oldest newspapers in the country.

Other companies that I've owned or I'm watching.

Bank of Cyprus
Frigoglass - maker of professional refrigeratos, has big views in Asia and Africa
Hygeia - hospitals in Greece and soon in Albania in Turkey.
Folie Folie - the world famous fashion company


In the NYSE there are a few Greek shipping companies, Dry ships being the biggest one I think....

Anyway, like I said again just like I'm not aware with most US companies I guess you know none of these!


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for July 23, 2009 - ICE, TWM, HSIC [Re: trunksan]
    #10754680 - 07/28/09 10:35 AM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Interesting portfolio.  Financial, gaming, construction, telecom, & publishing.
Fairly well diversified, though indeed, I am not familiar with most of those issues.

As for my end, I have initiated a sizable short position in Henry Schein (HSIC) at $50 for the reasons previously noted.  I also wanted to share the following commentary from Doug Kass, as I think it is important for all investors to be mindful of the many potholes in the road going forward.

Quote:

From my perch, the bull market is lulling investors into a false sense of security, as slowly but surely the collective guard of many market participants is being pulled down in the face of the remarkably strong price momentum to the upside for most of the world's stock markets.

The majority of the talking heads are now espousing that ever-familiar glib philosophy popularized by Johnny Mercer of accentuating the positives and eliminating the negatives.

We have heard and seen this all before.

Of course, unlike sentiment (positive and negative), complacency is hard to define and even harder to get our hands around. Complacency is not a "state" identified in surveys, rather it is a condition that, through years of investment experience, we have learned to identify in the actions and mind-set of individual and institutional investors.

As expressed in yesterday's opening missive, the second derivative recovery ("the positive") has now been well-discounted, but the foundation for solid, self-sustaining growth is on a more shaky foundation ("the negative"). Here's why:

  1. Cost cuts are a corporate lifeline and so is fiscal stimulus, but both have a defined and limited life.

  2. Cost cuts (exacerbated by wage deflation) pose an enduring threat to the consumer, which is still the
      most significant contributor to domestic growth.

  3. The consumer entered the current downcycle exposed and levered to the hilt, and net worths have been
      damaged and will need to be repaired through higher savings and lower consumption.

  4. The credit aftershock will continue to haunt the economy.

  5. The effect of the Fed's monetarist experiment and its impact on investing and spending still remain uncertain.

  6. While the housing market has stabilized, its recovery will be muted, and there are few growth drivers to
      replace the important role taken by the real estate markets in the prior upturn.

  7. Commercial real estate has only begun to enter a cyclical downturn.

  8. While the public works component of public policy is a stimulant, the impact might be more muted than is
      generally recognized. There may be less than meets the eye as most of the current fiscal policy
      initiatives represent transfer payments that have a negative multiplier and create work disincentives.

  9. Municipalities have historically provided economic stability -- no more.

  10. Federal, state and local taxes will be rising as the deficit must eventually be funded, and high-tax health
      and energy bills also loom.

From a contrarian's viewpoint, the bull market in complacency makes the market increasingly vulnerable to an external and unanticipated surprise and/or from a disappointment to consensus expectations. And from my perch it is only a matter of when the market corrects, not if.





Discretionary Portfolio as of 7/28/2009:
  • 47.7% Cash
  • 14.7% Bank of America (BAC)
  • 11.6% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 8.7% ProShares UltraShort Russell 2000 (TWM)
  • 8.2% WalMart (WMT)
  • 7.2% Amedisys (AMED)
  • 6.4% Pepsico (PEP)
  • 5.5% BP plc (BP)
  • 4.5% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
  • 4.0% ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (SDS)

  • -18.5% margined SHORT Henry Schein (HSIC)


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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for July 23, 2009 - ICE, TWM, HSIC [Re: geokills]
    #10761548 - 07/29/09 12:23 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Woot! Got my software fixed. I had a missing file that wouldn't allow it to load up. I've taken a few of your (Geokills) stocks and will post them when I get home this evening.


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Re: Stock Update for July 23, 2009 - ICE, TWM, HSIC [Re: Hotnuts]
    #10763140 - 07/29/09 04:54 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

The dow has dropped 2 days straight. Another day of drops and investors may begin to get skittish and think about pulling out profits. This ol' bear may see daylight yet.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for July 23, 2009 - ICE, TWM, HSIC [Re: Stonehenge]
    #10768735 - 07/30/09 01:50 PM (14 years, 5 months ago)

Upside momentum is relentless!  My portfolio is for the most part hedged in addition to holding lots of cash, as at the moment I don't have much conviction one way or another.  I do feel like the market is due to pull back after such an exhausting rally.  But given how exhausting the rally has become, I can see how it may serve to draw even more money into the market as people are literally panicking to get in, so we see minimal pullbacks and continued upside momentum.  So I miss out on an up day like today, but to be honest I never would have seen this coming, and rather than take a wild chance I don't mind staying flat.  If we tag 1000 on the S&P 500 tomorrow, I may add to some shorts or do a little selling, but otherwise I am doing little.  Here's a little something I wrote to my friends and family today:

Ramblings of rusty mind...

It has been interesting to witness the rapid rise in US equities (stocks) over the past several months, even as unemployment continues to rise and the consumer (that makes up 70% of our domestic economy) is increasingly saving more money while making and spending less.

Also interesting to note, the stock market has now risen some 46% in the last 145 days.  This has precident, as the stock market rose 46% in 147 days as the country emerged from the 1929 Great Depression.  Pretty odd to see such an exacting parallel, hmm?  It may prove prescient to remember that after the 1930 stock market rally of 46%, we subsequently experienced a 700-day drop of 85%!

These statistics leave me a little bemused toward the awesome irrationality of Wall Street, as a swift rise in equities has the tendancy to blur our vision and responsibility in partuclar for repaying our burgeoning debt.  Take a moment to study the following link, it's ours to own.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/


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Re: Stock Update for July 23, 2009 - ICE, TWM, HSIC [Re: geokills]
    #10772606 - 07/31/09 04:15 AM (14 years, 5 months ago)

The SGY I'm holding just blew away estimates yesterday in their release and is up 11% AH.  I'm hoping for a big day today before and especially after the conference call.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for July 31, 2009 - AMED, BAC [Re: Redstorm]
    #10773688 - 07/31/09 10:00 AM (14 years, 5 months ago)

Good for you Redstorm.

  • I've had a helluva winner on my hands with Amedisys (AMED), of which I sold half of my position this morning at $46 a share.  You may remember that this position was a relatively new addition to my portfolio, added on May 22nd at $30 a share, with the intention of holding it for the long-term since this in-home care specialist is a direct beneficiary of medicare spending on an aging population that continues to grow.  However, a 53% gain in two months is not to be taken lightly.  With the stock up some 13% today on the heels of a good pop yesterday (thanks to speculation that Obama's healthcare programs aren't going to be as effective in cutting costs as he had made it seem), it's time to trim this position back and wait for it to come back to earth, where I will plan to buy more shares if the stock falls back down to $37 - $38.

  • Bank of America (BAC), my largest long position, is now crossing over its 200 day EMA.  The stock looks a little extended to the upside on a short term basis, and today's pop probably has a lot to do with the Russell rebalancing that requires the purchase of 32 million shares (according to a source at Bass Trading).  Even though I have a feeling BAC could pull back here, I am not going to take any action on this position today since I already have a lot of downside protection in the form of my positions in SDS, TWM, my short on HSIC not to mention plenty of cash.  This heavy hitter is now up nearly 23% from where I've been adding since May 19th.  For all I know, today could be a breakout to farther upside.  The short term doesn't concern me so much with BAC, but as with AMED... if it goes parabolic, I will begin to trim.



Discretionary Portfolio as of 7/31/2009:
  • 51.0% Cash
  • 15.7% Bank of America (BAC)
  • 11.2% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 8.3% WalMart (WMT)
  • 8.1% ProShares UltraShort Russell 2000 (TWM)
  • 6.5% Pepsico (PEP)
  • 5.5% BP plc (BP)
  • 4.5% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
  • 4.2% Amedisys (AMED)
  • 3.9% ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (SDS)

  • -18.8% margined SHORT Henry Schein (HSIC)


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for July 31, 2009 - SDS [Re: geokills]
    #10775049 - 07/31/09 02:23 PM (14 years, 5 months ago)

Just a quick note that I ended up doubling down on my ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (SDS) this afternoon at $47.

A great article by Pimco's Bill Gross, it may contain valuable foresight so I'd suggest you read it!


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Re: Stock Update for July 31, 2009 - SDS [Re: geokills]
    #10786373 - 08/02/09 03:22 PM (14 years, 5 months ago)

Sorry about that. There's these new NFA rules that have totally f'd me up lately because my dealer had to switch the platform up to accommodate the new rules. The new, dumbass rules I may add. Anyways, here's KMP. Any questions, just ask. Looks like there's some offers coming into play on that stock by the way.



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InvisibleGI_Luvmoney
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Re: Stock Update for July 31, 2009 - SDS [Re: geokills]
    #10787065 - 08/02/09 05:12 PM (14 years, 5 months ago)

I can't understand why Bill Gross and Mohamed El-Erian voted for Obummer.  Maybe they voted for the man he pretended to be before he got elected.

--> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_hassett&sid=amhpOT5rlR1Y


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Edited by GI_Luvmoney (08/02/09 05:18 PM)


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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for July 31, 2009 - SDS [Re: GI_Luvmoney]
    #10787124 - 08/02/09 05:19 PM (14 years, 5 months ago)

No politics here, PLEASE.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for July 31, 2009 - SDS [Re: Hotnuts]
    #10791959 - 08/03/09 12:36 PM (14 years, 5 months ago)

Thanks for the chart analysis hotnuts.  There does indeed appear to be some pressure on KMP here, but I don't mind letting this one sit for its dividend, which yields 10% from the level I got in.  I never got into KMP with the goal of share price appreciation, so the fact that I'm 20% above my basis is just the icing on the cake.

Confounded strength in the market is a little baffling to me though... my shorts are keeping a cap on what could be some very nice gains today, but I still can't see the current rally extending too much farther.  Would love to see what you think about the chart on Amedisys (AMED), Bank of America (BAC), Freeport McMoran (FCX) and/or the S&P500~!


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