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SuperD
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Registered: 10/05/03
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Re: Stock Update for June 17, 2009 - HIG, Short ETF's, BAC [Re: Hotnuts]
#10556146 - 06/22/09 08:32 PM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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I'd like to just forget about today and hope for a better week / month ahead.
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   D Manoa said: I need to stop spending all my money on plants and take up a cheaper hobby, like heroin. Looking for Rauhocereus riosaniensis seeds or live specimen(s), me if you have any for trade
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Hotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for June 17, 2009 - HIG, Short ETF's, BAC [Re: SuperD]
#10556938 - 06/22/09 11:10 PM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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Hey guys, be cautious on your long positions. The forex markets are short as hell the carry trades and with the Nikkei falling around 3% after the NY session, this could carry over to this morning's New York session. Just be cautious on your longs, as I don't want you to get burned. More than likely US data will be poor as well the next 2 days. Watch out for the WTO's case against China as well. Risk aversion could be setting in with all of the negative news and could send equities heading south rather big time.
Edited by Hotnuts (06/23/09 08:25 AM)
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for June 17, 2009 - HIG, Short ETF's, BAC [Re: Hotnuts]
#10558664 - 06/23/09 10:40 AM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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Staying fully hedged for the moment. Here's a nice opening missive by my man Doug Kass on "The Edge".
Can you guess one of the reasons why I love this guy so much? 
Quote:
Brokedown Palace? 6/23/2009 7:25 AM EDT- The markets will be uneven and inconsistent, with growing opportunity to trade and a reduced opportunity to invest.
Going to leave this brokedown palace, On my hand and knees, I will roll, roll, roll. Make myself a bed in the waterside, In my time, I will roll, roll roll. In a bed, in a bed, by the waterside I will lay my head. Listen to the river sing sweet songs, to rock my soul.
-- Grateful Dead, "Brokedown Palace"
This morning's coming up opening missive addresses the difficulty I see in navigating the markets in the months and years ahead.
My message is that our travel in the markets will be uneven and inconsistent, with growing opportunity to trade and a reduced opportunity to invest. The interpretation of the economy's progress will likely be equally difficult to ascertain; in some time frames, it will appear that we are emerging out of economic weakness, and in other periods, it will appear we are falling back into the abyss.
Yesterday's market breakdown will likely encourage technicians and others who worship at the altar of price momentum to abandon their optimism of a week to 10 days ago, when an all-clear sign seemed to have been widely interpreted as paving the way to an upside breakout.
By contrast, in the herky-jerky and lumpy market environment I foresee, the normal certainty of those observations/utterances should be discounted or even ignored, as I did in mid June, when I turned more defensive as the all-clear signs permeated the investment landscape.
Despite the market's weakness yesterday, I still believe the odds favor a sideways correction.
Regardless of one's views, the general lack of certainty that I believe should be ascribed to market opinions and the continued and heightened volatility suggest that most investors should err on the side of conservatism and should continue to have lower-than-normal-sized investment/trading positions.
Fare you well, fare you well, I love you more than words can tell, Listen to the river sing sweet songs, to rock my soul.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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geokills
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Stock Update for June 23, 2009 - SKF, AAPL, BAC [Re: geokills]
#10562021 - 06/23/09 10:36 PM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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Just a quick note that I sold 50 shares of my position in the UltraShort Financial ProShares (SKF) for a 15% gain. I have the remaining 50 shares hinged on a $1.10 trailing sell stop. I am reducing my hedge here, as I believe that this sector having performed so well over the past quarter will be susceptible to attracting mark-ups (buying for window dressing) during the last few days of this quarter/month. I will re-evaluate this position again in July.
I am bidding for Apple (AAPL) at $130, as I want to bring more technology back into the portfolio and believe that with Steve Jobs' improved health and the consistent lines coming out of the Apple stores for their 3G iPhone, this company has what it takes to perform well even in a dismal economic backdrop.
I am also bidding for more Bank of America (BAC) at $12 for reasons previously noted.
Discretionary Portfolio as of 6/23/2009:- 29.3% Cash
- 13.5% UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)
- 9.7% Bank of America (BAC)
- 9.0% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
- 7.0% WalMart (WMT)
- 6.0% Hartford (HIG)
- 5.2% PepsiCo (PEP)
- 4.9% Amedisys (AMED)
- 4.5% BP plc (BP)
- 3.7% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
- 3.7% Direxion Daily Large Cap Bear 3X (BGZ)
- 3.6% UltraShort Financial ProShares (SKF)
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for June 23, 2009 - SKF, AAPL, BAC [Re: geokills]
#10564142 - 06/24/09 10:48 AM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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I am now out of my short levered ETF positions in the SKF and BGZ. The put/call ratio yesterday was over 100%, for the second time in a week - indicating a strong increase in bearish sentiment, second only to the March low. As sentiment indicators are often contrary, and as we approach the end of the quarter/month, I anticipate some measure of a rally over the next four or five days. On a move back up to 925 - 930 on the S&P 500, I anticipate resistance as the S&P creates a potential "head and shoulders" chart formation, and will either sell some long exposure, add some short exposure, or some combination of both.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Stonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for June 23, 2009 - SKF, AAPL, BAC [Re: geokills]
#10570599 - 06/25/09 12:40 PM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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I see sds is down $3 today. I sold at a small profit at 58 and i'm glad i'm out. I'll get back in when it hits around 45. I predict a stock rise and then a big drop. The world is nervous over obama's ambitious spending plans and lack of clear direction. The rally can not keep on. I have a lot of cash sitting in my account. I plan to get out of my 3000 ge at a profit and sell off most of my long holdings. I will then cover my shorts when it goes down and at some point go long again.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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geokills
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Stock Update for June 26, 2009 - BAC, TWM [Re: geokills]
#10577671 - 06/26/09 04:21 PM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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Added to Bank of America (BAC) yesterday at $12, bringing my total position size to 600 shares, with a basis of $11.69
Added 60 shares of the UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) to my portfolio today @ $42. If TWM reaches $40, I will add again in anticipation of small cap stocks in particular getting the wind knocked out of 'em next month after the end-of-quarter markups and seasonality effects come to pass.
Discretionary Portfolio as of 6/26/2009:- 30.0% Cash
- 12.7% UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)
- 12.1% Bank of America (BAC)
- 9.2% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
- 7.0% WalMart (WMT)
- 6.2% Hartford (HIG)
- 5.4% Pepsico (PEP)
- 5.2% Amedisys (AMED)
- 4.5% BP plc (BP)
- 4.0% UltraShort Russell2000 ProShares (TWM)
- 3.7% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Hotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for June 26, 2009 - BAC, TWM [Re: geokills]
#10589487 - 06/28/09 10:49 PM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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You've got a bigger set than I do with your BAC buys!
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for June 26, 2009 - BAC, TWM [Re: Hotnuts]
#10591550 - 06/29/09 09:50 AM (14 years, 6 months ago) |
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Well this one isn't really for the short-term, as I noted when I first opened the position. I aim to hold this one for at least a few years, and perhaps so long as a decade. The bank is involved in so many aspects of the American economy and should have earnings power of around $3 a share. That makes it pretty darn cheap! Furthermore, I am mindful that we could experience a pretty heavy swoon over the next 18 months; which is why I have built the position slowly. I am pretty much done buying for now, unless the stock falls back to $10, at which point I'll get back into to it. I've left myself enough room to potentially double the position size from this point and still feel pretty comfortable (though in that event, I would be removing my exposure to Hartford [HIG]).
So far, my strategy has been producing pretty consistent gains, and though they have not been particularly out-sized with respect to the overall market's moves, they have helped me maintain a level of diversification, with enough hedging and cash on hand as to keep me from getting nervous or stressed out on any given down day. And really, not getting stressed out is what's most important to me right now!
SDS - down 9% BAC - up 10% KMP - up 15% (plus dividends) WMT - down 12% HIG - up 2% PEP - up 11% AMED - up 9% BP - up 27% TWM - up 1% GILD - up 18%
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Hotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for June 26, 2009 - BAC, TWM [Re: geokills]
#10594152 - 06/29/09 07:45 PM (14 years, 6 months ago) |
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No doubt about it, you're doing very well.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for June 26, 2009 - BAC, TWM [Re: Hotnuts]
#10596720 - 06/30/09 08:50 AM (14 years, 6 months ago) |
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Added to the Russell 2000 UltraShort (TWM) this morning at $42. It's a slow week on account of the upcoming fourth of July holiday, and I think major managers are now just trying to hold stocks relatively steady through the close for their quarterly reports. With indicators such as the 30-day moving average of the advance/decline line heading back into overbought territory, I think it's time to look out for additional downside.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Hotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for June 26, 2009 - BAC, TWM [Re: geokills]
#10635050 - 07/07/09 10:31 AM (14 years, 6 months ago) |
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I don't know what to do with my F stocks. They're still trading in that wedge range. Something's telling me to ditch half of them. Maybe more.
Edited by Hotnuts (07/07/09 10:32 AM)
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geokills
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Stock Update for July 7, 2009 - FLR, UNG [Re: Hotnuts]
#10635847 - 07/07/09 01:23 PM (14 years, 6 months ago) |
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I shorted 100 shares of Flour (FLR) this morning at $48.10, with a trailing stop of $1.10. The stock appears to be breaking down below the 200 day EMA. If I'm not first stopped out of the position, I will look to cover at $43 a share.
I initiated a long position of 300 shares in the US Natural Gas ETF (UNG) last Friday, though I seem to have been early, down 8%.
Thankfully, my hedges in TWM, SDS (and now FLR) are keeping my portfolio in fine shape as the market draws back. I am planning to lighten up on the SDS at around $60 and TWM at around $47.50.
While my position in BAC has pulled back over the past several sessions, it is still doing a good job of holding $12.
I don't really have any idea where we are going from here, so I continue to pick a few longs and a few shorts to keep myself hedged until we can get more clarity. Seems that the well-known range in the S&P500 is between 875 - 925. We are nearing the bottom of that channel now with earnings season upon us.
Discretionary Portfolio as of 7/7/2009:- 21.3% Cash
- 14.7% UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)
- 12.5% Bank of America (BAC)
- 10.0% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
- 9.4% UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM)
- 7.4% WalMart (WMT)
- 6.3% United Natural Gas Fund (UNG)
- 6.2% Hartford (HIG)
- 5.9% Pepsico (PEP)
- 5.6% Amedisys (AMED)
- 4.7% BP plc (BP)
- 3.9% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
- - 8.0% SHORT Flour Corp (FLR)
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for July 7, 2009 - SDS, FCX [Re: geokills]
#10638163 - 07/07/09 08:18 PM (14 years, 6 months ago) |
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Dumped 2/3 of my position in the SDS at $60.10 on the late-day weakness.
Also picked up a little FCX @ $45. Copper / gold miner. This is an early cycle recovery play, with some aspects of inflation hedge to it as well. I will buy a little more at $40 with a stop at $39.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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geokills
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Stock Update for July 8, 2009 - TWM, HIG, FCX [Re: geokills]
#10642148 - 07/08/09 02:20 PM (14 years, 6 months ago) |
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Got slapped around a bit today... and even a little spooked. 
Closed my UltraShort Russell 2000 (TWM) position for a 13% gain. Stopped out of Hartford (HIG) for a 13% loss.
Decided to dump Freeport McMoran (FCX) for no appreciable gain/loss. I figure that FCX can see $40 on a break of the current 875 - 925 channel in the S&P 500. I will look to get back into the name closer to that level.
For now, I just wanted to build up my cash reserves while earnings season gets underway.
Discretionary Portfolio as of 7/8/2009:- 47.2% Cash
- 12.2% Bank of America (BAC)
- 10.1% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
- 7.5% WalMart (WMT)
- 6.3% US Natural Gas Fund (UNG)
- 5.8% Pepsico (PEP)
- 5.6% Amedisys (AMED)
- 4.7% BP plc (BP)
- 4.7% UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)
- 3.9% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
- -7.9% SHORT Flour Corp (FLR)
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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geokills
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Stock Update for July 14, 2009 - FLR, ICE, POT, UNG, DTO, AN [Re: geokills]
#10675561 - 07/14/09 02:08 PM (14 years, 6 months ago) |
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Lots of things to mention today, including a few (of what I believe to be) great trading opportunities here for the shorter-term minded investors among us.
- First a simple note that I was stopped out of my Flour (FLR) short for a $1.50 per share gain. Nothing great, but nothing lost!

I've taken a long trading position on 120 shares of IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) at $85.
This is a technical trade, not an investment. There is significant support at the $83 level going back to the last three weeks of April. The huge spike down on large volume just last week (from $110 down to $83) has been churning just above $83 for the past several days. The 200 day simple moving average is also just underneath this support zone at $80 per share. Therefore, I've taken this position with the idea that the stock can potentially rebound to fill the gap created on 7/8/2009 when the stock gapped down at the open from $98 to $95. On the other hand, I will be stopped out of the position if the stock falls to $82.90. This leaves me with a potential risk of 2.5% and a potential reward of around 12%. I like that setup, as evidenced by my capital commitment which is larger than my typical positions, currently comprising some 17% of my portfolio!
- I've taken a momentum trading position by shorting 50 shares of Potash (POT) here at $84. They took it on the chin last friday by breaking a key support level at $87 on heavy volume, and this was after it had just broken down from a support level at around $97 last month. Because of the inability of the bulls to keep the stock from breaking these levels, it is likely that people will keep selling it with little buying enthusiasm, at least until earnings are announced on July 23rd and we can gain more clarity on what is actually going on with the business. I do plan to be out of this trade before the earnings print.
- Looking for an exit in my US Natural Gas (UNG) position. It is up nicely today but still below my basis. I am implementing a $0.20 trailing sell stop that will expire tomorrow. While I still believe that a long term investment in natural gas is a good thesis, the UNG is not the way to play it. It is too manipulative of the market. The simple fact that it works by purchasing futures contracts which it subsequently rolls over during each successive month, allows the remaining minority of futures contract holders to anticipate the rollover and sell/buy ahead of and after UNG makes its transition to the next month's worth of contracts. Boooo!
I also have been trying to secure a short on PwerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Short (DTO) at $98 - $99, but have been unable to find a borrow. To short this double short, would essentially mean going double long on oil. I want to take this bullish position because oil itself has pulled back to a level that previously served as resistance in March and April, and then turned into support during May. It is also along the uptrend line that can be drawn from the lows in February and late April/early May.
Because double short instruments are inherently more likely to incur deteriorating returns based upon the methodology of the way they work, shorting it should in theory provide me a bonus beyond the 2x bullish leverage indicated by shorting this double short instrument.
- Would also like to short AutoNation (AN) here upon its recent strength. It is an automotive retailer operating 232 stores located in metropolitan markets in the Sunbelt region of the US. The consumer is still very pressured and as unemployment continues apace, credit availability stays tight and tax rates increase, I do not foresee the auto sales business being a positive sector of the economy. The stock traded as low as $4 last year and has seen an impressive rally since that low. However, it appears to be topping out here and I would expect that during another downdraft in the economy, or a double-dip to test the lows in the stock market, this stock in particular will experience severe punishment. Alas, I cannot seem to find a borrow on the shares for shorting, but I will keep trying as long as shares trade north of $17.
Discretionary Portfolio as of 7/14/2009:- 28.1% Cash
- 17.3% IntercontinentalExchange Corp (ICE)
- 13.0% Bank of America (BAC)
- 10.1% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
- 7.4% WalMart (WMT)
- 6.4% US Natural Gas (UNG)
- 5.9% Pepsico (PEP)
- 5.5% Amedisys (AMED)
- 4.7% BP plc (BP)
- 4.3% UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)
- 3.8% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
- - 7.1% margined SHORT Potash (POT)
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Stonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for July 14, 2009 - FLR, ICE, POT, UNG, DTO, AN [Re: geokills]
#10676079 - 07/14/09 03:43 PM (14 years, 6 months ago) |
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Bad time to plunge, imo. I'm looking to dump my ge. Hopefully this little rally will continue tomorrow and give me the chance to duck out with a profit. I will probably add to my short positions. I see sds is back down to 56. I might try that at 54.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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Hotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for July 8, 2009 - TWM, HIG, FCX [Re: geokills]
#10676316 - 07/14/09 04:31 PM (14 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: Got slapped around a bit today... and even a little spooked. 
You'd better thank Meredith Whitney, or your (bac) position may have continued to take a beating.
I see you're gaining more interest in technical analysis. I've been messing around with 10 and 21 day moving averages lately. I really like the accuracy. I can show you a couple of things really quick if you'd like?
Edited by Hotnuts (07/14/09 04:32 PM)
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for July 14, 2009 - FLR, ICE, POT, UNG, DTO, AN [Re: Stonehenge]
#10680673 - 07/15/09 09:36 AM (14 years, 6 months ago) |
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GOOD MORNING WORLD! 
> Bad time to plunge, imo.
That setup on ICE was looking too good to ignore. Boy howdy am I glad I didn't! The stock is up 9% this morning. You can imagine that on a position comprising 17% of my portfolio, that's not too shabby for an overnight gain! I have sold 1/3 of my position in ICE today to protect those quick profits, but will still hold on to some in line with my original thesis that the stock can fill the gap created on 7/8/2009 around $98. The position is now 12.2% of my portfolio.
It's a shame I couldn't get a borrow on the DTO short yesterday. Not going to try it today after the 5% slide.
> I will probably add to my short positions. I see sds is back down to 56.
Also Consider TWM, the leveraged short on the US small cap based Russell 2000. It offers more volatility than the SDS in case you want to get more aggressive. BGZ if you're really hungry for some risky rewards. I'm still excited about Potash (POT) for a short-term short (through July 22) as outlined in the last update. While I am down 4% today on my POT short, I will double-down if the stock hits $90 in the next few days. Don't forget AutoNation (AN) for a longer-term short... if you can find a borrow (as of this morning, I still cannot even though the stock is markedly higher - I will keep trying).
> I can show you a couple of things [on moving averages] really quick if you'd like?
Would love it! I'm thirsty for knowledge, and thus far have used the 20 day SMA in conjunction with bollinger bands as a short-term indicator, the 50 day SMA as my "go to" intermediate indicator, and the 200 day SMA/EMA as a long-term trend indicator. I'd be interested to hear what you have to say about the shorter term averages... as I'm only now getting more of an appetite for shorter-term trades. Frankly, it is the churning sideways nature of this market that has forced me to do so, as buying and holding just isn't doing much right now - as evidenced by my position in WalMart which hasn't done anything in 5 months!
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
Edited by geokills (07/15/09 11:25 AM)
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Stonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for July 14, 2009 - FLR, ICE, POT, UNG, DTO, AN [Re: geokills]
#10682401 - 07/15/09 02:43 PM (14 years, 6 months ago) |
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I managed to dump all my ge at a small profit and my silver as well. I made about $900 on the ge which is very little when you consider it's on 4,000 shares. That's just over 22 cents a share. I'm happy to get it and i don't care if it goes up some more. I almost dumped it yesterday at a loss. I plan to stay out of ge for 31 days to dodge the wash rule. I bought some sds at 54 and it promptly went down. If the market dives soon i will be doing great. I may do some shorts tomorrow if the market is still up.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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