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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for June 2, 2009 - ISCA [Re: Stonehenge]
#10481706 - 06/10/09 09:50 AM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
Hotnuts said:
"Hardly any of this money is making it to the hands of consumers"
To which Stonehenge asked:
And this statement is based on what?
In addition to the fact that the anticipatory bidding higher of many commodities such as oil will put additional pressure on the consumer, many of whom are already spending less and facing a reduction in work hours or unemployment altogether... here's what Doug Kass had to say yesterday, 6/9/2009 on "The Edge" at RealMoney.com:
Consumers' Wounds Never Fully Healed 6/9/2009 8:05 AM EDT
Despite the excellent price action of the stock market, some of the green shoots are turning yellow (especially of a retail kind).
According to my channel checks (which were supported in a Goldman piece this morning), retail in the month of May closed poorly, and June continued the late-May weakening trend.
The consumer never really healed himself, and with the specter of rising interest rates (read: mortgage rates!) and higher tax rates, a consumer-led double-dip in late 2009/early 2010 remains my baseline expectation.
I contend that the personal savings rates will remain high and that personal consumption expenditures will remain low for an extended period of time in the current cycle.
-Doug Kass 6/9/2009
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geokills
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Stock Update for June 9, 2009 - ISCA, SDS, SKF [Re: geokills]
#10481766 - 06/10/09 10:04 AM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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Just a quick note to cover some action that had transpired yesterday and the day before in my portfolio:
- International Speedway Corp (ISCA) - Stopped out of position for negligible loss
Kept my stop a little too tight on this one and got nicked for a few bucks. I will re-initiate this short sale on 150 shares if shares should reach $27, right at the stock's 200 day EMA/SMA, which are still for the most part trending down - though the EMA has flattened considerably. I will stop out the trade if the shares rise above $27.60, making for a potential risk of around $100, with a gain of around $500 if the stock trends back to its 50 day moving average.
- UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) - Bought 25 shares @ $53
Continuing to add to this leveraged short on the S&P500 index. - Oil keeps on rising, and at this rate will become a headwind for equities before too long.
- Momentum is drying up (people are not chasing stocks to the upside nearly as much as they have been - lighter buying power).
- The market is overbought and there are also negative divergences, such as the Nasdaq having shown 56 new highs on 6/1, and yesterday showing only 38 new highs even though the index was 30 points higher than it was the week before. That index has also been rising on falling volume.
- The Investors Intelligence survey shows 47.7% of respondents as bulls, which is the highest reading since May of last year. Bears have shrunk to 23.3%, the fewest since December 2007 -- these are contrary indicators as once giddiness has started to reach extreme levels, everyone who wants in the market, probably already is! This means that buying power will further dry up and leave the door open for profit taking and correction.
- UltraShort Financial ProShares (SKF) - Bought 100 shares @ $39.30
Even though banks are considerably better off now that they have issued new stock to recapitalize their balance sheets, some such as Wells Fargo (WFC) may need to do another round of financing, which could put added pressure on the sector. I expect Bank of America (BAC) to continue to outperform and am using the SKF as a hedge against weakness in the sector overall.
- 35.1% Cash
- 12.4% UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)
- 9.5% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
- 7.3% Walmart (WMT)
- 6.9% Bank of America (BAC)
- 6.4% UltraShort Financial ProShares (SKF)
- 5.3% Pepsico (PEP)
- 5.0% BP plc (BP)
- 4.9% Amedisys (AMED)
- 3.6% SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
- 3.5% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
Edited by geokills (06/10/09 10:27 AM)
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Stonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for June 9, 2009 - ISCA, SDS, SKF [Re: geokills]
#10483622 - 06/10/09 05:12 PM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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Yeah, that sds just keeps going down and down. We are going to need another crash to make any money on it. I may grab any profit at all.
Geo, why did you ignore my questions? You are the one who brought up the wash sale rule. Do you know anything about it? I know that if you sell a security at a loss and buy the same security back within 30 days you can't take the loss against gains. But what if you keep buying and selling it? I would assume that unless there was a 30 day period that you didn't own it, it would be a wash but you could take it the next year or later on.
And tell us about schedule D's? This is supposed to be an informative thread, you are the more experienced investor here, what's the deal? How many do you file in an average year?
Anyone who thinks those trillions of dollars aren't going to make a big big impact has his/her head in the sand. Get out of cash soon as you can and get into something solid. Unfortunately I have cash i can't bring out for a few years so i may get hit but most of it will be out in a couple years so no biggie. And if i buy real estate i can always use some mattress money to fix places up and so on. Houses are all money pits even the ones you make money on.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for June 9, 2009 - ISCA, SDS, SKF [Re: Stonehenge]
#10487651 - 06/11/09 11:36 AM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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Sorry for missing your question Stonehenge - wasn't intentional nor personal. You will not be able to legally deduct any capital gains loss from a sale in a security that you end up re-purchasing within 30 days of the sale that booked the loss. You will not be legally allowed to take the capital gains loss for any shares that you re-purchase within 30 days of the sale, ever, this year or the next or the next after that. That is why once a trade goes sour and you cut it loose, it often makes sense to look for other stocks to trade instead of jumping back into the one that went against your original thesis.
As for being the most experienced investor here, let's not get ahead of ourselves! I only started investing around the time I started this thread... I'm sure that there are quite a few more experienced investors around the boards here, even if they may not post as much about their investments/trades as I do about mine.
About the Schedule D, Capital Gains and Losses Form 1040, I let my tax man handle it with a copy of the information put together by the GainsKeeper software that TDAmeritrade provides in addition to their consolidated 1099 report that they send out each tax year.
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SuperD
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Re: Stock Update for June 9, 2009 - ISCA, SDS, SKF [Re: geokills]
#10487702 - 06/11/09 11:46 AM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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I've still been toying with PCX since it was mentioned in this thread. Bought 140 shares $8.20 and sold today @ $9.60. It's still going up but I'm very satisfied with my entries and exits this time around.
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   D Manoa said: I need to stop spending all my money on plants and take up a cheaper hobby, like heroin. Looking for Rauhocereus riosaniensis seeds or live specimen(s), me if you have any for trade
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Stonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for June 9, 2009 - ISCA, SDS, SKF [Re: SuperD]
#10488784 - 06/11/09 02:53 PM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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Damn sds is down some more.
Thanks, geo, i should have gotten off my lazy ass and looked it up instead of asking. However, it seems you do get the deduction later on according to this:
Quote:
Your personal investment loss cannot be claimed as a capital loss for federal income tax purposes if, within the period that begins 30 days before the date of the loss sale and ends 30 days after that date, you buy "substantially identical" stock or securities (including mutual fund shares). The theory is that the loss sale and the offsetting purchase of substantially identical securities within the forbidden 61-day period amount to an economic "wash." As a result, our beloved tax law says you aren't entitled to the tax benefit that you'd otherwise get from the loss.
When you have a disallowed wash-sale loss, it doesn't just vaporize (except when an IRA is used to acquire substantially identical securities, which I'll explain later). Instead, the disallowed loss gets added to the tax basis of the acquired securities — the ones that triggered the wash-sale rule in the first place.
Then, when you sell those securities, the extra basis from the disallowed wash-sale loss either reduces your tax gain or increases your tax loss. In effect, the disallowed loss is converted into a "built-in loss" that will be taken into account when you sell the substantially identical securities. By the same logic, your holding period for the substantially identical securities is increased by the period you held the securities for which the loss was disallowed.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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Hotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for June 9, 2009 - ISCA, SDS, SKF [Re: Stonehenge]
#10489990 - 06/11/09 06:03 PM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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Hey traders. Andy is a super star economist that once worked for Morgan Stanley and now is on his own I believe. I think it was Morgan, I can't remember. As i've been saying, be cautious and open minded for the longer term. http://english.caijing.com.cn/2009-06-09/110180019.html
Edited by Hotnuts (06/11/09 06:04 PM)
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geokills
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Stock Update for June 12, 2009 - BGZ [Re: geokills]
#10504291 - 06/14/09 12:23 PM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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Just a note that I put on a small position of 60 shares in BGZ @ $33.33. BGZ is a leveraged ETF that returns 3x the inverse of the Russell 1000 index. The market seemed to advance late in the day Friday on the anticipated pro-US election results in Iran... which turned out to be anything but once it was realized that Ahmadinejad was pronounced the winner and some rioting/protesting ensued in that country. The market doesn't seem to have much memory day to day, so perhaps it won't make any difference come monday.
Discretionary Portfolio as of 6/12/2009:- 31.7% Cash
- 12.3% UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)
- 9.5% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
- 7.7% Bank of America (BAC)
- 7.2% WalMart (WMT)
- 6.3% UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF)
- 5.3% Pepsico (PEP)
- 5.0% Amedisys (AMED)
- 4.9% BP plc (BP)
- 3.6% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
- 3.5% SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
- 3.1% Direxion Daily Large Cap Bear 3X (BGZ)
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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geokills
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Stock Update for June 15, 2009 - GLD, BAC, SKF, BP [Re: geokills]
#10511658 - 06/15/09 03:44 PM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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Those hedges sure pulled their weight today! With the markets down 2 - 3%, my portfolio remained mostly flat and even closed up on the day. 
- I've closed my position in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) for a few bucks of profit, essentially flat. I still hold physical gold at the bank, but I'm cutting loose the GLD for now, given that people seem to be forecasting interest rates to rise at a faster rate than inflation, which has been one of the major factors keeping a lid on gold prices in the immediate term. If the GLD breaks $90, I would expect it to drop further and may consider picking it back up at that time. If it stays here in the $90's, I'll just as soon stay away.
- Eagerly waiting for Bank of America (BAC) shares to get back to around $12 so I can continue my buying. I firmly believe this will be one of the best stocks to own for the coming several years. Given that the company now services half of American households through its banking deposits, mortgage, investment and credit services, and with its acquisitions of Countrywide and Merril Lynch, it has become an indicator of the US economy. Whispers indicate earnings potential of around $3 a share, which at the current price is a steal, and could conceivably cause the stock to double in the next year. On the other hand, if the economy worsens, I will have to re-evaluate my holding and will likely lighten up significantly or even close the position should it break below $10 a share. I will maintain my position in the UltraShort Financial ProShares (SKF) as a pair and hedge to my BAC holding, as I feel that BAC will be one of the best performers in the industry, but that the sector as a whole is probably over-extended in the short term.
- In a note somewhat related to this portfolio (since I hold the same stock in both accounts), I have closed my position in BP plc (BP) on my retirement account for a 25% profit. This brings my retirement account (more conservative) to 78% cash. I will maintain BP in my discretionary account as I've locked in a solid 10% yield and the position is small enough that I can wait out the fluctuations. I would ideally like to wait for my BP holding to reach long-term capital gain status before selling in my discretionary account, as it is already 33% above my basis and continues to pay a fine dividend.
- Lastly, I am going on a one week backpacking trip to Kings Canyon (Sequoia National Park) mid next week... so I will probably not be adding new positions to the portfolio (unless they are extremely short term trades), and will instead focus on maintaining my hedges and raising cash. If the market continues to fall hard, I do intend to book some profits on my hedges (especially in BGZ, where I wouldn't want to overstay my welcome!).
Discretionary Portfolio as of 6/15/2009:- 35% Cash
- 12.8% UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)
- 9.4% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
- 7.5% Bank of America (BAC)
- 7.0% WalMart (WMT)
- 6.6% UltraShort Financial ProShares (SKF)
- 5.2% Pepsico (PEP)
- 4.8% BP plc (BP)
- 4.7% Amedisys (AMED)
- 3.5% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
- 3.4% Direxion Large Cap Triple Bear (BGZ)
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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geokills
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Stock Update for June 16, 2009 - HIG, Short ETF's, BAC [Re: geokills]
#10518617 - 06/16/09 05:48 PM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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- Hartford Financial Services (HIG) - Initiated position of 333 shares at $12.02
This insurance company has been consolidating massive gains along the order of 400%+ since the March lows, drifting lower on low volume ever since May 8th. Howeer, it seems to be finding some support just below its 50 day SMA which it breached yesterday. The fact that the stock rebounded nearly 4% higher today on better than average volume (and carried an intra-day high that reached up an additional 4%), even amidst a very dismal market, seems to indicate that this one could be ready to roll higher.
- I have maintained my short exposure through various leveraged ETF's (SDS / SKF / BGZ), and this has allowed me to make money both today and yesterday, despite the aggregate market dropping nearly 3.6% during the same time period. I may reduce my exposure if there is early weakness tomorrow morning. The S&P's 200 day SMA stands around 907 and may provide short term support for a quick bounce. If I am nimble enough to grab a quick drop in the morning, I will not hesitate to re-build my short exposure on a subsequent bounce, in order to keep my portfolio hedged ahead of my one week vacation starting next wednesday.
- Bank of America (BAC) is approaching my buy levels at and below $12.50 a share. Options pinning may see the stock visit $12 by week's end. If we can get down to the 50 day SMA at around $10.75, I will be buying heavily.
Discretionary Portfolio as of 6/16/2009:- 28.7% Cash
- 13.1% UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)
- 9.3% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
- 7.1% Bank of America (BAC)
- 7.0% WalMart (WMT)
- 6.9% UltraShort Financial ProShares (SKF)
- 6.4% Hartford Financial Services (HIG)
- 5.2% Pepsico (PEP)
- 4.7% BP plc (BP)
- 4.7% Amedisys (AMED)
- 3.5% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
- 3.5% Direxion Large Cap 3X Bear (BGZ)
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Hotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for June 16, 2009 - HIG, Short ETF's, BAC [Re: geokills]
#10520007 - 06/16/09 10:02 PM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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Everyone watch out. There was a bull trap put in today on the Dow Jones, 3 box reversal. That's a bearish sign.
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geokills
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Stock Update for June 17, 2009 - HIG, Short ETF's, BAC [Re: Hotnuts]
#10522718 - 06/17/09 09:23 AM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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Well my trade in HIG was ill-timed, but my hedges are still keeping me green today as the markets fall early on the day.
I have added 150 shares to my position in BAC this morning, bringing it to a 10% weighting in my portfolio.
The S&P's 200 day moving average stands at around 907 while the 50 day is around 892 and rising. It would stand to reason that the market will be pinned by options pressure this week and could continue to fall early next week. If this plays out, various indicators will be showing an oversold reading and the 50 day moving average will be close to crossing the 200 day moving average next week - which is sometimes referred to as a "golden cross" buy signal (or a "black cross" sell signal if the 50 day average is declining when it crosses).
The confluence of these events, in conjunction with the potential for end of month mark-ups by money managers who want to appear smarter than they are by piling into winning stocks for their end of month reports (aka "window dressing"), could lead to a rally that would probably begin by next Wednesday, June 24th.
It would probably be wise to start covering shorts today, with the S&P and many other issues violating their 200 day moving averages... but since I just initiated a new long position as well as adding to BAC, I want to stay fully hedged and will likely keep my shorts (via leveraged ETF's) in play.
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Hotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for June 17, 2009 - HIG, Short ETF's, BAC [Re: geokills]
#10523196 - 06/17/09 11:43 AM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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Just make sure you're patient when it comes to SMA crosses on longer term charts. Or any time chart for that matter. I've had it happen to me around 1000 times trading currency. It's always best to make sure the cross is confirmed and the trend has broken away from the cross (to the upside in this case) rather well before you start trusting in it. And just because that cross happens, doesn't mean the bull trend is confirmed for some time. They can wind back and forth within a couple of weeks in longer term charts.
Edited by Hotnuts (06/17/09 11:44 AM)
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Stonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for June 17, 2009 - HIG, Short ETF's, BAC [Re: Hotnuts]
#10532175 - 06/18/09 06:47 PM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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I think i'm dumping that sds unless we have a crash in the near future. Those leveraged short stocks always lose money in the long run. S+P goes down 7 points, sds goes up .5 points. S+P goes up 7 points, sds goes down 1.5 points. I bought some ge and it went right on down. I'm flipping it if it goes to 13.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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Stonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for June 17, 2009 - HIG, Short ETF's, BAC [Re: Stonehenge]
#10537154 - 06/19/09 02:03 PM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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Like today, s+p was down .4 and sds was down .27. WTF??? And end of the day s+p is up 2.47 and sds is down .87. Just let me get into profit territory and watch my dust. But then the market will crash and it'll go way up. The bears should pay me to close my short positions. It's like washing your car to make it rain.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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Hotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for June 17, 2009 - HIG, Short ETF's, BAC [Re: Stonehenge]
#10541578 - 06/20/09 08:10 AM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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The ole' bull trap is still in. Herd'em up!!!
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Stonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for June 17, 2009 - HIG, Short ETF's, BAC [Re: Hotnuts]
#10553871 - 06/22/09 02:11 PM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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SDS went into profit territory and i grabbed it and got out. Naturally it went up some at the end of the day just as i predicted. I don't care, it can go to 100. I bought some more ge, it went up and then down some more. What else is new?
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for June 17, 2009 - HIG, Short ETF's, BAC [Re: Stonehenge]
#10554258 - 06/22/09 03:15 PM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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I am maintaining my short positions; which though I'm still in the red today, kept me from feeling the vast majority of the pain inflicted upon the markets on this down 3% day (myself down just shy of 0.5%). There was a lot of technical damage done today, in particular the S&P's inability to hold the 900 level, now standing below its 200, 50 and 20 day moving averages. Given the severity of the selling today, we shouldn't have too much farther to fall before we see the market oversold enough to rally a bit into the end of the month as major money managers do their window dressing. Even so there has been a definite shift in the market's mood, as dip buyers were no where to be found today and we fell like a rock right into the close, with the previously strong momentum names getting hit the hardest of the bunch.
Be careful out there. I would begin to cover some short positions and maybe even do some buying on continued weakness over the next day or two, in anticipation of some relief during the end of the month. But I would still be prepared for a market that languishes throughout the summer, and may even continue to correct significantly from here over the next couple of months. That's not necessarily bad however, as it will make for a nice setup for a late 2009 / early 2010 rally to the upside, as it will have given the markets time to digest and consolidate upon the recent out-sized run we've seen since the March lows.
If on the other hand we continue to rally through the summer, I would expect the markets to experience a significant amount of downward pressure in late 2009 / early 2010 as it becomes apparent that consumers cannot so quickly heal themselves, due primarily to lowered employment and tightened credit availability.
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Hotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for June 17, 2009 - HIG, Short ETF's, BAC [Re: geokills]
#10554652 - 06/22/09 04:21 PM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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Not sure if you care or not, but I have a target of 8100/8050 in the Dow by measuring the prior congestion to the trap. It's seems silly, but is rather accurate. We'll see I guess. I was correct with my prior bull target of 8700.
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Hotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for June 17, 2009 - HIG, Short ETF's, BAC [Re: Hotnuts]
#10555475 - 06/22/09 06:42 PM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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The Nikkei's getting owned, down more than 2% already in early Asia.
Edited by Hotnuts (06/22/09 06:43 PM)
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