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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for May 27, 2009 - LM, URE, JOYG [Re: Redstorm]
    #10430249 - 05/31/09 02:57 PM (14 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

Redstorm said:
Wouldn't GM's BR already be at least slightly priced into the markets?  It's not as if this is a surprise or anything now.




Fully priced in.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for June 1, 2009 - JPM, MRO, URE, JOYG, SDS [Re: geokills]
    #10436531 - 06/01/09 05:06 PM (14 years, 7 months ago)

After posting what seemed to be an exaggerated end-of-month upside close last Friday, the market continued to fly higher today, with the S&P 500 nearing the 950 level, up better than 2.5%.  It is truly amazing the ferocity with which the market has run to the upside over the past three months.  So many people continue to wait for and anticipate a breakdown, yet we continue to see a seemingly endless stream of buying.  It almost seems like fantasy, to look back and to realize that the S&P has now lofted over 40% above its March lows!  That's 40% in less than three months, when I was relating the comments made by Doug Kass that people should be buying all the way... talk about the call of a lifetime - good job Doug!  My most recent trades in URE and JOYG have worked like a charm, and I have used today's strength as an opportunity to sell, while maintaining a net-LONG positioning in my portfolio but remaining cautious of an inevitable correction whether it happens this week or next month.


  • JPMorgan (JPM) - Closed out position for 11% gain

    There was a rumor going around earlier today that JPMorgan would be issuing new equity to raise capital (this was confirmed after the market closed by sources at Dow Jones).  The rumor of the secondary offering, in conjunction with an afternoon weakness in many back stocks, led me to close this position for an 11% profit.  I will leave BAC on my books for financial exposure, and look to add JPM back to my portfolio on weakness.


  • Marathon Oil (MRO) - Closed out position for 48% gain

    With oil more than doubling from its lows, undertaking a tremendous move to close in on $70 a barrel, I believe we could experience a minor correction in the near future.  Now this may not be the case, as the summer season tends to increase oil demand due to travel, but even if oil continues to go higher, I am maintaining exposure to the sector through BP plc (BP) since it sports a better dividend.  For now, I believe it is prudent to lock in this nearly 50% gain on MRO and wait for the markets to cool off a bit before buying again.


  • Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) - Closed out position for 15% gain

    Another lesson learned on this trade.  Having expected the markets to sell-off today and waking up to see them rocketing higher at the open, I decided to jettison this position at around $4 with a limit order.  To my frustration, I watched the stock propel itself all the way up to $4.36 intraday, after I'd already sold the position.  In the future, rather than making a quick limit sale, I will instead simply tighten my trailing stop in order to allow the stock to run higher, if fate will have it.  Sure I may miss out on a few percent if the stock falls back, but by selling at a hard limit this morning, I missed out on almost 10% of additional upside!  I don't begrudge the profit, but I will do my best to remember this lesson.


  • Joy Global (JOYG) - Stopped out of position for 11% gain

    You'll recall I put this technical trade into action last week, and like a gift was rewarded with some very fast money.  Realizing the importance of using technical analysis to my advantage in addition to fundamental core positioning, I will attempt to practice and outline more of these short-term technical setups in the future.  While I may not believe in the long-term fundamentals for any given stock, if they are technically ripe for a trade it would be counter-productive to ignore it!


  • UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) - Thoughts

    This is now my biggest loser, obviously, as the market has continued to ramp.  I will hold onto it however, as no market will continue to go straight up without a few hiccups, nevermind the serious troubles we still face in our economy ranging from a stressed consumer to unemployment to our debt-laden government.  After the 40% move in the S&P over the past few months, there is no doubt that cracks will ultimately surface.  I am not however adding to this short position today, as I have already done a lot of selling in order to reduce my long side exposure, protect profits and build up cash.  If the market continues to ramp tomorrow, I may take a little nibble of the SDS; and if the S&P makes it all the way to 1000, you can bet that I will be committing more cash to this leveraged short ETF.  For now, I am comfortable with my positioning, as this is already my largest.


Discretionary Portfolio as of 6/1/2009:
  • 43.9% Cash
  • 10.2% UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)
  • 9.7% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 7.4% WalMart (WMT)
  • 6.3% Bank of America (BAC)
  • 5.3% Pepsico (PEP)
  • 5.2% Amedisys (AMED)
  • 5.0% BP plc (BP)
  • 3.7% SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
  • 3.4% Gilead Sciences (GILD)


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for June 1, 2009 - JPM, MRO, URE, JOYG, SDS [Re: geokills]
    #10441601 - 06/02/09 02:10 PM (14 years, 7 months ago)

Geo, I know what you mean about the market not doing what it's supposed to do. In the past, even a rumor about bad news sent it down. Now, the bad news is flying thick and fast and no one cares.

KMP is one I've done well with. I bought at 34 and today it closed at 52.70. It went up yesterday and again today. The dividend isn't bad either.

I still think we are going to get our correction. They are just waiting for everyone to stick their necks out and then the axe comes down.

Silver is up, I haven't checked gold.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

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OfflineRedstorm
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Re: Stock Update for June 1, 2009 - JPM, MRO, URE, JOYG, SDS [Re: Stonehenge]
    #10442030 - 06/02/09 03:24 PM (14 years, 7 months ago)

SGY, a NG company I have a decent amount of shares in, just announced a deepwater discovery on a prospect site in which they have partial ownership in. It's up over 11% just in after hours. Pretty exciting stuff, I have to say.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for June 2, 2009 - ISCA [Re: Redstorm]
    #10442459 - 06/02/09 04:16 PM (14 years, 7 months ago)

Looks like it has cooled off a little bit from the initial spike, but definitely a promising news break!  All the same, I would advocate caution in the commodity space, as it could be argued that a lot of the strength seen in oil and various other commodities has been on account of the weak dollar.  Well the dollar is getting pretty oversold, and oil in particular is reaching some resistance in the $70-region... so buyer beware, is all I'm saying.  I sold some of my oil exposure yesterday by booking my 48% gain in MRO.  I will sit on BP because I locked in a 10% give or take annual dividend, but it is no secret that I am expecting a pullback in the sector.


  • International Speedway Corp (ISCA) - Sold SHORT 125 shares @ $25.50

    Rather than paraphrase, I will simply relay this fine bit of anecdotal evidence that I believe lends great credence to the bias against ISCA's stock, a company that owns various racetracks and is closely intertwined with Nascar.

    Racing on Empty
    By Tim Melvin

    RealMoney.com Contributor
    6/2/2009 12:59 PM EDT

    I have a dedication to hands-on research. In order to provided the most up-to-date information possible I am
    willing to go to whatever lengths necessary. In this spirit of dedication, when my good friend and attorney
    called last week with an offer of free tickets to the Nascar race this past weekend in Dover, Del., I accepted. I
    am not a rabid fan of the sport, but I have attended several times and always enjoyed it.

    We got off to a late start, as our habitually late friend from the mountains of Western Maryland showed up
    even later than usual. I admit I was concerned, as traffic is usually a major issue going to the race. Dover is
    not a big town, and it is mostly two lanes roads into town. The track holds something like 180,000 people, so
    the roads quickly become jammed. A late start would also mean we would have to park miles away from the
    track and walk in. To my amazement, there was almost no traffic, and we found a spot within an easy walk of
    the track.

    I like anecdotal economic evidence. I read and crunch the hard numbers that are continually released by
    various agencies and officials, but sometimes just getting out and walking around can tell you a lot. In years
    past at the spring race, the traveling carnival of Nascar would be packed. In the fan areas packed full of sales
    trailers and exhibits, it would be almost impossible to move an hour before the race began. Not so yesterday.
    It was easy to move around, and only the most popular drivers had lines at the sales counters. It was clear
    that attendance was down substantially from years prior.

    When we went into the track, it was clear that the economy is hurting Nascar events. I had never seen empty
    seats at a race. There were thousands of them on Sunday. Entire sections of the stands were covered with
    giant banners and closed to hide the sparseness of the grandstands. The north grandstand was half-full at
    best. There were even empty seats in the main stands that look over the finish line. The economy and rising
    unemployment rate make it increasingly difficult to justify the $80-plus tickets and travel costs.

    This gives us valuable anecdotal economic information. Talk of "green shoots" and hope from China are nice to
    read. Watching what people are actually doing with their money gives us even more useful information. Nascar
    fans tend to be among the most rabid in all of sports. If they are staying home, it does not bode well for
    consumer spending. We saw in the report released yesterday that consumer spending is continuing to decline,
    and it looks to me as though entertainment spending is plunging even faster than other types of discretionary
    spending.

    In addition to gleaning economic information, there are some trading ideas here. Nascar is being hurt by the
    economy, and the sport has other problems as well. The decline of the U.S. automobile industry is going to
    have a huge effect on the sport. Ford (F) , General Motors (GM) and Chrysler contributed an enormous amount
    of money to Nascar in years past, and that is coming to an end. The pace car at Sunday's race was not a
    Mustang or Corvette but a Toyota (TM) hybrid. Revenue and earnings at the major publicly traded racing
    stocks are going to hurt.

    Nascar depends heavily on corporate spending and sponsorship. Longtime sponsors of winning drivers, such as
    Lowe's (LOW) and DuPont (DD) , are not going to go away, but less successful drivers are having a hard time
    finding the corporate dollars to run their teams. Finding sponsors of each of the 36 races is also becoming
    increasingly difficult for Nascar. The sport is not going away, but the recession is going to hurt it.

    International Speedway (ISCA) is among the most vulnerable. The firm is controlled by the France family,
    which is also the owner of privately held Nascar. International Speedway owns 13 tracks and the Nascar
    satellite radio operation. The stock is not ridiculously overpriced, but I believe earnings and revenue will
    continue to plummet and take the stock price with them in months ahead.

    On International Speedway's recent conference call, management disclosed that ticket presales were down
    around 20% this year and that average ticket prices were down. Management said that overall sales will be
    down closer to 15% with strong walk-up sales. I believe that is dead wrong and that race-day sales will also
    decline. Unemployed and underemployed people simply do not spend the hundreds of dollars needed for a
    family trip to the race. The France family includes some great businesspeople, and this company will survive,
    but right now the stock price is too high, given the headwinds it is facing.

    Speedway Motor Sports (TRK) is the other company that operates tracks that host Nascar events. It has eight
    tracks that currently feature Nascar events. Standard & Poor's recently cut its ratings on the company's debt,
    citing double-digit revenue and earnings from the weak economy. Once again, I believe that the earnings
    estimates are too high for the company and that the stock has further to decline.

    Paying attention to what is going on can help clarify the investment scene. When it comes to understanding
    what is happening in the economy at any given moment, all the figures and projections in the world do not
    speak as loudly as empty seats.


Discretionary Portfolio as of 6/2/2009:
  • 46% Cash
  • 10.7% UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)
  • 10.3% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 7.6% WalMart (WMT)
  • 6.7% Bank of America (BAC)
  • 5.8% Pepsico (PEP)
  • 5.5% Amedisys (AMED)
  • 5.3% BP plc (BP)
  • 3.9% SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
  • 3.6% Gilead Sciences (GILD)

  • -5.4% margined SHORT International Speedway (ISCA)


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for June 2, 2009 - ISCA [Re: geokills]
    #10442500 - 06/02/09 04:21 PM (14 years, 7 months ago)

You still hold kmp, geo? I thought you got out of that. I'm sure you noticed sds has gone way down. Oh well, easy come easy go.

Silver is up and gold is up nearly to $1000. All is not bad but I'd like to get out from under my ebay shorts without losing my shirt.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for June 2, 2009 - ISCA [Re: Stonehenge]
    #10442564 - 06/02/09 04:29 PM (14 years, 7 months ago)

Never let go of KMP, and probably never will!  It is a great place to park money for steady cash flow and limited premium risk.

My position in SDS is 13% below my basis.  It is designed to hedge my long positions and doesn't need to necessarily make any money.

One other thing to note, I've read about you trading into and out of positions (GE comes to mind) very frequently.  I hope you realize the tax implications of getting into and out of and back into a specific stock within a 30 day period.  Namely, that you will not be able to use any losses as a tax deduction against subsequent gains.  This is known as the wash sale rule.


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Re: Stock Update for June 2, 2009 - ISCA [Re: geokills]
    #10442686 - 06/02/09 04:49 PM (14 years, 7 months ago)

Oh, I saw jmp and though kmp. Good thing you stayed with kmp.

The wash rule doesn't hurt me any. My losses on the shorts will come off the profits at some point or other. I hope to have some profits at the end of the year. Trying to keep track of all this junk next tax time will be a nightmare. I have no idea how many pages of form D I have racked up already. How do you manage it?


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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Re: Stock Update for June 2, 2009 - ISCA [Re: Stonehenge]
    #10465411 - 06/07/09 11:31 AM (14 years, 7 months ago)

What's up your sleeves, for this upcoming week?


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for June 2, 2009 - ISCA [Re: Hotnuts]
    #10466086 - 06/07/09 02:01 PM (14 years, 7 months ago)

If you are talking to me, I'm sitting and waiting. I have some standing orders but I am looking for a drop before I do anything.

Geo, you have a point about the wash rule. If i keep getting in and out, i may not be able to deduct my losses on ge or others either. I will have to keep out for a period of a month before the end of the year the way i understand it. Do you use the sced d forms or do you print your own?


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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OfflineHotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for June 2, 2009 - ISCA [Re: Stonehenge]
    #10468435 - 06/07/09 10:44 PM (14 years, 7 months ago)

Well, after studying some index techs I think that stocks can run a little more to the upside. The Dow's 3 box reversal has just had a triple top breakout. Measuring the congestion prior to that breakout, a run to 9000 is possible. On the other hand, the US indicies are in mild divergence, along with weak volume, so that tells me that a sell off is nearing.

Edit- Although the divergence is mild and is only reading around 55 on RSI (yearly), the lack of volume worries me going forward. Then again, that could change this week easily. I still think 9000 for the Dow can be achieved, although i'm still bearish for the long term.


Edited by Hotnuts (06/07/09 11:17 PM)


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OfflineYrat
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Re: Stock Update for June 2, 2009 - ISCA [Re: Hotnuts]
    #10470260 - 06/08/09 11:05 AM (14 years, 7 months ago)

any thoughts on this article?


--------------------
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
Strike The Root


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Re: Stock Update for June 2, 2009 - ISCA [Re: Yrat]
    #10470440 - 06/08/09 11:44 AM (14 years, 7 months ago)

""I’m afraid they're printing so much money that stocks could go to 20,000 or 30,000"

I stopped reading there.


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OfflineYrat
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Re: Stock Update for June 2, 2009 - ISCA [Re: Hotnuts]
    #10470601 - 06/08/09 12:13 PM (14 years, 7 months ago)

why?

depending on your view of inflation, there's no reason that statement isn't necessarily true.  what do you think stock prices are if they are represented in Zimbabwean dollars?


--------------------
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
Strike The Root


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Re: Stock Update for June 2, 2009 - ISCA [Re: Yrat]
    #10470702 - 06/08/09 12:28 PM (14 years, 7 months ago)

Inflation? The US is still at a very high risk for deflation. Supply and demand is dud at the moment.


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Re: Stock Update for June 2, 2009 - ISCA [Re: Hotnuts]
    #10471322 - 06/08/09 02:16 PM (14 years, 7 months ago)

You have a point, hn, but yrat is correct in that they have created trillions of dollars out of thin air with no real backing. When you have more cash chasing the same amount of goods, inflation is inevitable. It hasn't happened yet but wait and see. That doesn't mean all stocks will go up, some will go broke like gm and chrysler. We are still in hard times. Then when things start to get a little better, whammo comes the inflation like a ton of bricks. Hold onto your gold and silver, it will go into the stratosphere.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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Re: Stock Update for June 2, 2009 - ISCA [Re: Stonehenge]
    #10474376 - 06/08/09 10:36 PM (14 years, 7 months ago)

Hardly any of this money is making it to the hands of consumers. And the amount that does, will be measly compared to the amount loss because of contraction. Lending continues to slide m/m by the billions. Too many are unemployed and that will continue to rise as contraction continues and job creation from Federal programs lag. The savings rate is rising m/m and will continue to do so for some time to come. Consumer spending is weak and will continue to be so as long as credit deliquencies continue to pile up m/m, housing prices slide and stock builds, lending is tight and the contraction continues on. All deflationary when it comes to a nation's GDP that's 70% reliant on consumer spending. The speculators that are barking inflation are the ones that are going to goof up this recovery, sending commodities and interest rates through the roof, choking off the consumer even further with their horrendous outlooks. The US is nowhere near a recovery yet. It kills me how easily people can take their eyes off of the heart of the problems when a little bit of decent data starts to come in. Data that's irrelevant to the heart of the problems.


Edited by Hotnuts (06/09/09 12:14 AM)


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Re: Stock Update for June 2, 2009 - ISCA [Re: Hotnuts]
    #10475044 - 06/09/09 12:36 AM (14 years, 7 months ago)

Be cautious.  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a_YnClfaKdqs

P.S.- Stay tuned into Thursday's data @ 8:30am, eastern time.


Edited by Hotnuts (06/09/09 01:13 AM)


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for June 2, 2009 - ISCA [Re: Hotnuts]
    #10478104 - 06/09/09 03:31 PM (14 years, 7 months ago)

"Hardly any of this money is making it to the hands of consumers"

And this statement is based on what?


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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Re: Stock Update for June 2, 2009 - ISCA [Re: Stonehenge]
    #10479535 - 06/09/09 09:10 PM (14 years, 7 months ago)

Only 4% of the stimulus program has been implemented, weak tax breaks, consumer spending in the red and mounting job losses. Consumer credit was also down 15.7 billion last month and 16.6 billion the previous.


Edited by Hotnuts (06/09/09 10:30 PM)


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