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Hotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for May 20, 2009 - BAC, SDS [Re: Stonehenge]
#10378791 - 05/21/09 09:26 PM (14 years, 8 months ago) |
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I'm getting ready to add to my Ford position as soon as this wedge formation clears up. I'm looking to buy another 10,000 at around $4. Let's see what happens from now to then.
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geokills
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$4 for Ford (F) would be a gift. I'm also interested in this stock (though do not hold any currently), so let's share some simple chart analysis for our viewers.

$4.50 is at the trend line that began in early March, $4.25 is the 50 day SMA, and around $3.80 is the 200 day EMA*.
Because of these statistics, I believe it will be difficult to get Ford down to $4 for a purchase... though certainly not impossible. For those of us who do not have a position in the stock but would like to find a suitable entry point, I believe the best way to build a position in Ford would be to purchase the first lot at $4.50, then another at $4.25, and then bring out the big guns at $4 if that level is ultimately tested.
*As a side note, I've gotten in the habit of using the EMA (exponential moving average) for the longer-term moving average lines, so that they will be weighted more toward the recent price action in a stock, and thereby give me a little extra warning of any potential change in the long-term trend of a stock. For shorter term moving averages (like the 20 day), I still prefer to use simple moving averages.
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Hotnuts
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I'm watching this falling wedge formation. There's "usually" 5 legs of the formation, in which i've marked 2 or them. This leg is the third one. A break of either the support or resistance line will trigger trades. In which direction, we shall see. Hopefully, to the upside. Heh. I marked my initial trade a couple of months ago. I bought in @ 1.77.
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Hotnuts
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Re: Ford (F) [Re: Hotnuts]
#10381806 - 05/22/09 12:27 PM (14 years, 8 months ago) |
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By the way, the falling wedge formation is a continuation pattern most of the time. Usually, this period of consolidation lasts around a few weeks and then breaks out of it.
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geokills
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Re: Ford (F) [Re: Hotnuts]
#10382148 - 05/22/09 01:39 PM (14 years, 8 months ago) |
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Thanks for the contribution. To note, given your expectation that the falling wedge continuation pattern will last a few weeks, you must expect the stock to breakout of the pattern to the downside if your buy point is $4.00? Because given the downside slope on the base of the wedge, it would take another four weeks or so to each $4, which would necessitate the pattern to last roughly twice as long as you'd typically expect. Then again, if the other part of the typical scenario comes to fruition, we still have two more of the expected five legs to work through so perhaps your target is right on the money.
In either case, I would understand that as you already have an active position in Ford (with a mighty profit), you don't mind waiting for the extended opportunities as you already have capital committed for further upside potential. In my case, I am coming from a mind to be a little more aggressive as I have no capital committed to Ford and wouldn't want to miss another move higher, should the general uptrend remain intact.
Given the precious state of the indicies, I may just sit this one out - or revisit the situation if Ford should hit your target at $4. I have added to BAC today and initiated a new position which I will review shortly, so I probably don't need to be adding too much more exposure to the long side at this point given that we are barely hugging the lower trend lines on all the major indicies, and various indicators have already started to roll over. Until we break our range between 880 and 925 on the S&P, it will be tough to tell where we might head from here in aggregate.
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Edited by geokills (05/22/09 01:55 PM)
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Hotnuts
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I was just throwin' $4 out there. Somewhere in the ranges of 4.50/4.75 are much more accurate. Sorry, I was just blurting out an around about price.
Edited by Hotnuts (05/22/09 01:49 PM)
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geokills
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Re: Ford (F) [Re: Hotnuts]
#10382235 - 05/22/09 01:53 PM (14 years, 8 months ago) |
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No biggie, I was only critical in an effort to sleuth out any underlying strategy or understanding you may be privy to that I am not! Thank you for participating, as the falling wedge continuation pattern was not immediately apparent to me, and that is something I hope I won't miss in the future. 
PS. I edited my post above to expand on my thoughts about an appropriate entry for Ford given the overall market trends.
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Hotnuts
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"Until we break our range between 880 and 925 on the S&P, it will be tough to tell where we might head from here in aggregate."
I know man, stock indicies look like they could fall off of a cliff! But, are holding well. The same is going on with a lot of carry trades in forex too. Is what I can't figure out is, if Ford fails to continue this uptrend because it's being drug down with a bear market, should I sell or should I hold? It's driving me crazy because I got in at a great price with a long term outlook, but surely don't want to watch my profits get sucked down the tubes along with the indicies if another leg starts heading south. This is some tricky stuff to say the least.
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Stonehenge
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Today I flipped some ge for a gain of 5 1/2 cents. Yes cents. Then I shorted another 1000 at 13.21, it closed at 13.10. I plan to ride this one down to a nice low point on monday. That's why I settled so cheap on my long position.
That's 2 times in 2 days I've day traded. I did it last week but that's too long ago to mean anything. I will have to watch it because one more time before thursday and I get a warning. Two more times and I'm a pattern day trader.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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geokills
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Re: Ford (F) [Re: Hotnuts]
#10384396 - 05/22/09 11:18 PM (14 years, 8 months ago) |
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If I were in your shoes, I would take profits on 50% of my position in Ford. Cripes, you already have what... a 300% gain or thereabouts? Even if you book 1/3 of your position, the rest is the house's money, so it really won't be any skin off your nose to sit on it forever. Take out your basis and play with the house's money... it's what I always dream of when opening a position. I've only been able to do it with Apple (AAPL)... which, incidentally, I sold before the crash but I'm looking to get back into.
I just got back from a FAT Thai dinner... so I'm a little spent, but I'll be posting another update at some point during the weekend.
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Hotnuts
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I've got my eyes on the 4.25 level of support, prior to this wedge formation. If the trend breaks this support line in the wedge, i'll be paying close attention to that support area. Hopefully, it'll hold.
Edited by Hotnuts (05/23/09 05:36 PM)
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geokills
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Stock Update for May 22, 2009 - BAC, AMED [Re: geokills]
#10398589 - 05/25/09 09:00 PM (14 years, 8 months ago) |
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- Bank of America (BAC) - Bought 125 shares @ $10.85
I added to this new financial position on weakness Friday in accordance with my previous update (May 20, 2009). The stock dipped to the level its secondary offering was priced. With the belief that BAC can hold this price level, I am continuing to build this position. However, mindful of the continued stress on the economy, I am adding slowly and leaving room for future purchases as I intend to build a core position in this name for several years to come.
- Amedisys Inc (AMED) - Bought 100 shares @ $30
After having closed my position in Celgene (CELG), I am looking for more exposure to the healthcare sector. This company caught my eye, as it provides home health services to the aging American population, deriving 87% of its revenue from Medicare. With Medicare spending on a steady ramp as this aging American population continues to grow in size, this should be a high growth industry for years to come. With a good balance sheet, four consecutive quarters of better than expected earnings under their belt and an expected earnings growth rate of 20% annually for the next five years, the stock seems cheap with a price to earnings / PE ratio of only 8.8 (equating to a price to earnings growth / PEG ratio of under 0.5x!). Now there is a serious concern regarding the Obama administration's drive to reform our healthcare system, which may crimp profits for a company like AMED that receives so much of its revenue from Medicare... but given that there is a 33% short interest in the stock already, and that it has already fallen 20% and currently rests at the very bottom of its bollinger band. I think this is a fairly low risk entry point for cheap stock, but news out of Washington regarding healthcare reform could cause some problems. If this one falls back to $26, I will add to my position; but if it can't hold $25, I will cut it loose.
Discretionary Portfolio as of 5/22/2009:- 33.8% Cash
- 12.0% UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)
- 9.1% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
- 7.4% WalMart (WMT)
- 6.4% Bank of America (BAC)
- 5.5% Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE)
- 5.3% Pepsico (PEP)
- 4.9% Amedisys (AMED)
- 4.7% BP plc (BP)
- 3.7% SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
- 3.5% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
- 1.9% Marathon Oil (MRO)
- 1.9% JPMorgan (JPM)
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geokills
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The Perma-Bear Cult [Re: geokills]
#10407017 - 05/27/09 11:14 AM (14 years, 8 months ago) |
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I thought this article was interesting, if not important. I often wrestle with my own personal flexibility. It is so easy to get caught up in an idea about how the market IS, but how the market is today isn't how it's likely to be tomorrow or the next week. To be successful in this game, one must be flexible and able to quickly change their stance in the face of ever-changing market and economic conditions. There is nothing wrong about being positive on a stock one day, and negative the next... Nevertheless, so often it feels that once one believes in a stock's trend, it can be difficult to recognize when a chance in stance is warranted. Emotional attachment can be a dangerous thing; with no place in the stock market!
The Perma-Bear Cult 5/27/2009 7:25 AM EDT Posted by Doug Kass at RealMoney.com
Typically inhabited by folks with little or no skin in the game, they very rarely make money.
"An optimist is a person who sees a green light everywhere, while a pessimist sees only the red stoplight.... The truly wise person is colorblind."
-- Dr. Albert Schweitzer
On The Edge, I have often written that both perma-bears and perma-bulls are attention-getters, not money-makers.
The perma-bear cult, of which I have often been accused of being a member, is an especially strange clique that often sees the clandestine plunge protection teams saving the U.S. stock market at critical points. They have never met a government statistic they like but instead see the U.S. government as "massaging" and revising employment, inflation and many other economic statistics in order to paint a positive picture. They express contempt for second derivative economic improvement and never or rarely ever see prosperity. They view seeds of recovery as Superman saw Kryptonite and extrapolate economic/stock market weakness to the extreme.
And they never ever or rarely make money.
Ironically, the perma-bear crowd is typically uninhabited by money managers. For example, the largest and highest profile short seller, Kynikos' Jim Chanos, is not a perma-bear. Jim systematically searches for broken or breaking business models, and he understands market and company-specific risk/reward. Nor was my friend/buddy/pal David Rocker a perma-bear. He, too (before he retired from Rocker Partners), identified adverse secular changes facing companies and, similar to Jim Chanos, had an uncanny ability to unearth frauds like Baldwin United, Enron and Lernout and Hauspie (among many others).
Rather than managing money, the perma-bear crowd is typically inhabited by writers of market letters, investment strategists and economists turned strategists, all of whom have little or no skin in the game. They also make a lot of speeches during downturns for a helluva lot of money and often write editorials in the Financial Times, New York Times and Wall Street Journal.
By contrast, the job of a money manager is not to be dogmatic. And to paraphrase Jim Cramer, neither is it to make friends; it is to make money.
The perma-bear species is a fickle breed, especially in its ardor for purging from its ranks anyone who breaks the faith. Woe betide a former perma-bear deemed less bearish!
In summary, perma-bears, similar to their first cousin perma-bulls, rarely make money and, in the main, shouldn't be listened to most of the time as even when they call a downturn, they almost always overstay their positions.
And they may be harmful to your financial health.
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geokills
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Stock Update for May 27, 2009 - LM, URE, JOYG [Re: geokills]
#10407453 - 05/27/09 01:11 PM (14 years, 8 months ago) |
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- Legg Mason (LM) - Bought 150 shares @ $18.50 with a 3% trailing stop (current trigger for sale @ $18.02)
This is strictly a technical trade, based on the 50 day simple moving average. LM has been uptrending with the market, touching a high of $22.53 on May 4th before beginning to give some back. Over the past couple of weeks, the stock has bounced twice off of its 50 day simple moving average, and now that we are flirting with that level again, I am putting on a position to see if I can catch this stock maintaining the trend. With my 3% trailing stop, the position will automatically close out if the trend fails - as the 50 day SMA currently stands around $18.20.
- Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) - $0.30 trailing stop to sell 1000 shares (current trigger for sale @ $3.28)
This is a volatile position, and with the major indicies floundering about, I do not want to let this one turn into a big loser. With the 50 day SMA hovering around $3.30, I have set this trailing stop to prevent any steep losses. I have already booked a gain on the sale of 1/3 of this position last week, and do not intend to let the remaining 2/3 burn me should the market falter.
- Joy Global (JOYG) - Bidding for 100 shares @ $32.65 with a 5% trailing stop
JOYG is another one that is ripe for a technical trade. The stock broke through its 200 day SMA decisively yesterday, and through the 200 day EMA today. If it can pull back to the 200 day EMA at around $32.65, I will be holding shares in the hopes that this breakout will contribute to continued upside follow through. If it never makes it to my trigger point, I'll just as soon let this one go as I already have plenty of long exposure.
Discretionary Portfolio as of 5/27.2009:- 29.2% Cash
- 11.5% UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)
- 9.3% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
- 7.4% WalMart (WMT)
- 6.4% Bank of America (BAC)
- 5.8% Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE)
- 5.1% Pepsico (PEP)
- 5.0% Amedisys Inc (AMED)
- 4.8% BP plc (BP)
- 4.5% Legg Mason (LM)
- 3.7% SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
- 3.4% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
- 2.0% JPMorgan (JPM)
- 1.9% Marathon Oil (MRO)
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Stonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for May 27, 2009 - LM, URE, JOYG [Re: geokills]
#10407853 - 05/27/09 02:30 PM (14 years, 8 months ago) |
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I had a great day today. Friday I made a nickle on some stock, tuesday I lost 11 cents but sold 1000 ge short at 13.58. Today I settled the short at 12.90 and made a nice profit of 68 cents. I also bought 2000 ge at 12.90 and at closing it was 12.99. I may flip it tomorrow.
Silver is up as is my sds stock which is short on the s+p which went down today. Ebay dropped which helped my short position there. I'm still underwater with that but it's dropping and i hope to get out with a profit someday.
I day traded thursday and friday so I have to watch it now. If i do it again before friday i get a warning and if i do it 2 more times i'm a pattern day trader. It's not illegal and the only downside is i have to maintain $25k in the account but there is no upside so i'm trying to avoid it. Trying to keep my amateur standing, so to speak.
I got a nice dividend of over $200 on my kmp stock the week before last. I'm glad I got out of my ge shorts a while back so I don't have to pay dividends on that. Ebay doesn't pay dividends and I will be very happy when that finally drops.
I'm a bear when I think a stock is too high and a bull when I think it will go up. In the long run they are going up.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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Hotnuts
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Re: Stock Update for May 27, 2009 - LM, URE, JOYG [Re: Stonehenge]
#10409827 - 05/27/09 07:58 PM (14 years, 8 months ago) |
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I think stocks are going down and going down hard when the time comes. Watch out for US retail sales coming on the 11th or 13th (can't recall without looking into it). VIX put in a buy signal (the 19th) and is heading to the upside, so be aware of that as well.
Edited by Hotnuts (05/27/09 08:00 PM)
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for May 27, 2009 - LM, URE, JOYG [Re: geokills]
#10412688 - 05/28/09 10:02 AM (14 years, 8 months ago) |
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Quick notes: - Stopped out of my LM trade from yesterday
- Triggered into the JOYG trade I mentioned yesterday.
- URE is continuing its neutral wedge pattern. My $0.30 trailing sell stop is currently set for $3.33, which would indicate a downside breakdown of the pattern and get me the hell out of this leveraged real estate ETF if that were to happen.
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Edited by geokills (05/28/09 10:05 AM)
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Stonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for May 27, 2009 - LM, URE, JOYG [Re: geokills]
#10420457 - 05/29/09 03:20 PM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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Bought 2000 ge wednesday at 12.90, flipped them today at 13.32 for a 42 cent profit. Sold 1000 ge short at 13.34 and ge closed at 13.48. I expect the market to move sharply lower next week. GM's deadline is monday and they are widely expected to declare bankruptcy which would wipe out all shareholders. GM has been perhaps the bluest of the blue chips for about a century. Its failure will send shock waves around the globe.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755
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Redstorm
Prince of Bugs




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Re: Stock Update for May 27, 2009 - LM, URE, JOYG [Re: Stonehenge]
#10425925 - 05/30/09 04:23 PM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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Wouldn't GM's BR already be at least slightly priced into the markets? It's not as if this is a surprise or anything now.
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Madtowntripper
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Re: Stock Update for May 27, 2009 - LM, URE, JOYG [Re: Redstorm]
#10425936 - 05/30/09 04:26 PM (14 years, 7 months ago) |
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Yes, everyone who wants to sell has likely sold as evidenced by drop in share price to under a buck yesterday.
The only thing I could think of that might cause market ripples would be the bond-holders who are going to get spanked, and the implication on their stock price if such entities are publicly traded.
Of course, I don't claim to know anything about this stuff. My only real interest in the market is as it pertains to the political situation both here and abroad.
-------------------- After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action. If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it. - Ernest Hemingway If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it. In the law courts, in business, in government. There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent. -Cormac MacCarthy He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God. - Aeschylus
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