Home | Community | Message Board

Out-Grow.com - Mushroom Growing Kits & Supplies
This site includes paid links. Please support our sponsors.


Welcome to the Shroomery Message Board! You are experiencing a small sample of what the site has to offer. Please login or register to post messages and view our exclusive members-only content. You'll gain access to additional forums, file attachments, board customizations, encrypted private messages, and much more!

Shop: PhytoExtractum Buy Bali Kratom Powder   Unfolding Nature Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order   Left Coast Kratom Kratom Powder For Sale   Bridgetown Botanicals Bridgetown Botanicals   Original Sensible Seeds Bulk Cannabis Seeds   Kraken Kratom Kratom Capsules for Sale   North Spore North Spore Mushroom Grow Kits & Cultivation Supplies

Jump to first unread post Pages: < First | < Back | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | Next > | Last >
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 7 hours, 7 minutes
Stock Update for April 19, 2009 - JPM, PVH, & Vacation! :) [Re: royer]
    #10194868 - 04/19/09 12:13 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

Thanks royer! I'm keeping this journal mainly for my own review and learning, but if other people are enjoying and learning from it as well, the more the merrier!
:sunny: I have obviously not been as active over the past week.  The market has held very well above key levels (800 on the S&P, 8000 on the Dow).  Indeed, it seems like the previous notions expressed by Doug Kass a month ago when we were at 666 on the S&P are coming to fruition.  Pullbacks have been shallow and buyers quickly step in, as the fear of being IN the market is starting to be replaced by the fear of being OUT of the market.

For my part, I am content to be taking a breather here.  I've sold about half of my portfolio into the ramp over the past several weeks, and am enjoying the peace from being largely in cash as the market churns about these new levels seeking further direction.  While it would seem that we are due for a pullback, this market is a strange one... I do not feel a need to capitalize off of every minute the market is open, and will patiently await better opportunities as they present themselves.

I will be leaving for vacation on Tuesday, driving up through California with my sweetie to visit her family outside of San Francisco and then my family in southern Oregon.  I will likely not be doing much trading during this time, which is another contributing factor as to why I have not been building positions over the past week.  I don't want to be worrying about the money I have in play while I'm on vacation, so I've taken a lot of it out!


I did however, make a couple of small moves toward the end of last week...

  • JPMorgan (JPM) - Bought 33 shares at $33

    The 3's just looked so nifty!  But seriously, JPM reported an impressive quarter last week that would seem to confirm my earlier suspicion that JPMorgan Chase will emerge from this crisis as one of the, if not the strongest bank in the country and perhaps even the world.  Shares have had a mighty run, and as you might recall I closed out my position at $28 last month after having bought down at $19.50.  Though the stock is now almost 18% higher than where I closed my position, the quarterly report compelled me to put a piece of this position back on my books.  I'm scaling in very lightly, and would be happy to build this position up to 10 times its current size if a good buying opportunity presents itself.  I had hoped for a pullback after my sale at $28 (and indeed, there was an opportunity to get back in at $25 which I missed).  But as the sector's strength has been so impressive, I simply wanted to add back some financial exposure to my portfolio in order to position myself for an eventual recovery  (which may apparently be in its earliest stages already).  Of course, as many banks have doubled from their lows in the past month, it is prudent not to be too aggressive here and I will wait for weakness to add to this position.


  • Phillips Van Heusen (PVH) - Sold SHORT 100 shares @ $28.51

    I'm betting against this stock, but only for a short term trade.  This is based on the near term volatility and the huge move the stock took on Thursday and Friday, gaining over 15% in two days.  I can see the stock headin' back to $26 (its 200 day moving average) pretty easily, and perhaps even down to $24 - $25.  I will be using protective stops on this position, as the strength in the stock has been impressive and it is often unwise to step in front of a freight train even as it travels up hill (i.e. a stock up nearly 10% on heavy volume).  So why even implement this short?  In part as a hedge against my other long positions.  This will be the only short I currently carry in my portfolio, and should help reduce my downside exposure in case the market takes a hiccup next week while I'm traveling.  I will have an active trailing stop of $2 on this trade, which limits my downside risk to 6.5% given Friday's closing price of $28.37.  On the upside, I am looking for 9 - 16% (covering the short between $24 - $26).  Check out the following chart I rigged up to see how I reached the conclusion to cover between $24 - $26.




Discretionary Portfolio as of 4/19/2009:
  • 63.3% Cash
  • 9.3% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 7.8% WalMart (WMT)
  • 4.1% BP plc (BP)
  • 3.9% iShares FTSE Xinhua China 25 Fund (FXI)
  • 3.8% Marathon Oil (MRO)
  • 3.8% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
  • 3.6% Pepsico (PEP)
  • 3.5% SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
  • 1.9% JPMorgan (JPM)

  • 4.8% margined short equivalent Phillips Van Heusen (PVH)


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineNoAgenda
THEY'RE BABIES!
Male User Gallery


Registered: 03/12/09
Posts: 348
Loc: NYC
Last seen: 14 years, 1 month
Re: Stock Update for March 20, 2008 - HCBK, MOS, MO [Re: geokills]
    #10196630 - 04/19/09 04:54 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

I was thinking that FLIR(infrared cameras) stocks would be up, or soon to be as more people try to pay their bills by growing.


--------------------

Meet your master: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W28jAQ8qIcg
The Foot Clan: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9o5jQKbTRlk


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 7 hours, 7 minutes
Stock Update for April 20, 2009 - PVH, SDS, PEP, JPM [Re: geokills]
    #10201086 - 04/20/09 11:16 AM (14 years, 9 months ago)

Just some quick notes as the market sells off today...

  • Philips Van Heusen (PVH)

    My new short here has helped to offset half of the losses I would have incurred from today's weakness.  As a result of the 6%+ downside move in PVH, I am tightening my $2 trailing stop to $1.30.  This position will now net me a minimum gain of +2.5%, though my target gain still stands between 9 - 16%.


  • UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)

    I'm bidding for 30 shares at $69.70 on this 2x leveraged short position on the S&P500.  There is a fair chance that the market pulls back to the psychologically significant 800 level, and if that can't hold, we could see a 50% retracement pattern between the 666 low and the recent high of 870, which leads us to 770 on the S&P500, some 8% lower than we currently stand... offering a potential gain of better than 16% on this trade if it goes through.


  • Pepsico (PEP)

    I have placed an open bid for 22 shares of PEP at $49.  The company reported earnings early which beat the consensus estimates by 4 cents a share.  Frito Lay continues to perform very well even though domestic beverage sales fell in the mid single digits.  The international business however, continues to take share.  Lower commodity costs will also prove to be a tailwind for the company going forward, not to mention the stock is trading below its historical average and yields 3.4%.  Nevertheless, the stock is down today after offering to pay $6 billion to buy the remaining shares of bottlers Pepsi Bottling (PBG) and Pepsi Americas (PAS) that it doesn't already own (currently PEP owns 33% of PBG and 43% of PAS).  By having the distribution of its products under one arm, the cost savings, control over pricing and direct-to-consumer ability should give PEP a flexible advantage over rival Coke (KO).  Pepsi's ownership of its bottlers will lead to better volume growth and some $200 million in synergies (cost savings).  This will result in accretion to Pepsico's earnings of an expected 15 cents a share, which adds upside to future earnings estimates. 


  • JP Morgan (JPM)

    I have also placed a bid that I will leave open as I go on vacation, for an additional 37 shares of JPM at $28.  Depending on the action over the following week (and whether or not I will be able to get to a computer to review it), I may increase my bid to $29 - $30... since I still have gobs of firepower to buy on the way down and would really like to rebuild my position in this leading financial institution.


Did I say leading? :tongue2:

Just to present the bear case (as we should always be mindful of the risks we take!), the following article has been circulating through the trading community this morning, indicating some very negative results from the government's "Stress Tests" that are said to have been completed on our banking system's individual firms.  The following article has not yet been verified for accuracy / confirmation, but it is still important to consider the implications as stuff like this does affect the near-term trading environment.

Quote:

From: http://turnerradionetwork.blogspot.com

Sunday, April 19, 2009
LEAKED! Bank Stress Test Reults !


The Turner Radio Network has obtained "stress test" results for the top 19 Banks in the USA.

The stress tests were conducted to determine how well, if at all, the top 19 banks in the USA could withstand further or future economic hardship.

When the tests were completed, regulators within the Treasury and inside the Federal Reserve began bickering with each other as to whether or not the test results should be made public. That bickering continues to this very day as evidenced by this "main stream media" report.

The Turner Radio Network has obtained the stress test results. They are very bad. The most salient points from the stress tests appear below.

1) Of the top nineteen (19) banks in the nation, sixteen (16) are already technically insolvent.

2) Of the 16 banks that are already technically insolvent, not even one can withstand any disruption of cash flow at all or any further deterioration in non-paying loans.

3) If any two of the 16 insolvent banks go under, they will totally wipe out all remaining FDIC insurance funding.

4) Of the top 19 banks in the nation, the top five (5) largest banks are under capitalized so dangerously, there is serious doubt about their ability to continue as ongoing businesses.

5) Five large U.S. banks have credit exposure related to their derivatives trading that exceeds their capital, with four in particular - JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, HSBC Bank America and Citibank - taking especially large risks.

6) Bank of America`s total credit exposure to derivatives was 179 percent of its risk-based capital; Citibank`s was 278 percent; JPMorgan Chase`s, 382 percent; and HSBC America`s, 550 percent. It gets even worse: Goldman Sachs began reporting as a commercial bank, revealing an alarming total credit exposure of 1,056 percent, or more than ten times its capital!

7) Not only are there serious questions about whether or not JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs,Citibank, Wells Fargo, Sun Trust Bank, HSBC Bank USA, can continue in business, more than 1,800 regional and smaller institutions are at risk of failure despite government bailouts!

The debt crisis is much greater than the government has reported. The FDIC`s "Problem List" of troubled banks includes 252 institutions with assets of $159 billion. 1,816 banks and thrifts are at risk of failure, with total assets of $4.67 trillion, compared to 1,568 institutions, with $2.32 trillion in total assets in prior quarter.

Put bluntly, the entire US Banking System is in complete and total collapse.

Bonifides

For those who may be skeptical about the veracity of the stress test report above, be reminded that only last Sunday, April 12, this radio network obtained and published a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Memo outlining their concerns that returning US military vets posed a domestic security threat as "right wing extremists." That memo, available here, is marked "FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY" and contained strict warnings that it was not to be released to the public or to the media. We obtained it and published it days before other media outlets.

Details of certain aspects of the stress test reported above have now been CONFIRMED through REUTERS News service when they disclosed the risk-capital percentages publicly on April 6, 2009 at this link

Further, todays Wall Street Journal (April 20, 2009) is confirming at this link that lending by the largest banks has DECREASED 23% since the government began the T.A.R.P. program, causing many in Congress to ask where the money has actually been going. Apparently, it has been going into propping-up the failing banks instead of out in loans to the public.

Additional details and proofs are forthcoming. . . . . continue to check back on this developing story.




Discretionary Portfolio weightings unchanged


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineYrat
Hello

Registered: 11/08/07
Posts: 2,312
Last seen: 2 years, 10 months
Re: Stock Update for April 20, 2009 - PVH, SDS, PEP, JPM [Re: geokills]
    #10203133 - 04/20/09 06:20 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

interesting article.

how long until the real crash?


--------------------
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
Strike The Root


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleStonehenge
Alt Center
Male User Gallery
Registered: 06/20/04
Posts: 14,850
Loc: S.E.
Re: Stock Update for April 20, 2009 - PVH, SDS, PEP, JPM [Re: Yrat]
    #10203564 - 04/20/09 07:42 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

I'm still short and was taking a beating with a few good days. Today was one of them. I hope to cash in my shorts this week and then some time after that I will go long again. I'm bullish on the long run but bearish in the short run.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 7 hours, 7 minutes
Re: Stock Update for April 20, 2009 - PVH, SDS, PEP, JPM [Re: Yrat]
    #10204271 - 04/20/09 09:48 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

Heh, no idea. :crazy2:

Hopefully we won't have one... but I'll be taking precaution all the same.

My trade on the SDS went through before the close today.  While it's not necessarily wise to put on an ultrashort hedge AFTER the market has already fallen 4%... I'm leaving on vacation tomorrow and will have very limited access to my portfolio for the next few days, so I just want to make sure that my capital position will stay relatively stable while I'm away.

Discretionary Portfolio as of 4/20/2009:
  • 60.1% Cash
  • 9.4% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 7.7% Walmart (WMT)
  • 4.0% BP plc (BP)
  • 3.8% iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Fund (FXI)
  • 3.7% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
  • 3.7% Marathon Oil (MRO)
  • 3.6% UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)
  • 3.6% SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
  • 3.4% Pepsico (PEP)
  • 1.7% JPMorgan (JPM)

  • 4.6% margined short equivalent Philips Van Heusen (PVH)


Adjusted Capital Allocation (exposure relative to total portfolio capital including leverage):
  • Long: 41%
  • Short: 12%


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineYrat
Hello

Registered: 11/08/07
Posts: 2,312
Last seen: 2 years, 10 months
Re: Stock Update for April 20, 2009 - PVH, SDS, PEP, JPM [Re: geokills]
    #10206048 - 04/21/09 09:28 AM (14 years, 9 months ago)

thought this graphic from a link in the buying a home thread was very interesting.



--------------------
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil
to one who is striking at the root."
-Henry David Thoreau
Strike The Root


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleConfucian
...
 User Gallery

Registered: 03/31/09
Posts: 1,741
Loc: USA Flag
Re: Stock Update for April 20, 2009 - PVH, SDS, PEP, JPM [Re: Yrat]
    #10208268 - 04/21/09 04:20 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

I like this one:



Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 7 hours, 7 minutes
Stock Update for April 24, 2009 - PVH, SDS, AXP, COF, CAKE [Re: Yrat]
    #10226418 - 04/24/09 02:11 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

Both good charts. :smile:

I was stopped out of my PVH short for a 4% gain.  Stopped out of SDS for nothing.

Just a quick note - even though I am technically on vacation - I think the incredible rise in American Express (AXP) and Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) today are offering a potential shorting opportunity.  Both are up 20% on the heels of good quarterly reports, with AXP breaking through its 200-day moving averages.  I'm looking for CAKE to pull back to $16 and for AXP to pull back to at least $23, where I already have an order to cover half of the position.  I've also placed a short on Capital One Financial (COF), as it has been rising in sympathy with American Express.  The consumer loan loss cycle has not peaked, and with the risk of a strong increase in credit regulation imposed by the federal government, I believe these stocks will correct lower over the coming month.

These trades (particularly on the credit side) are not without risk however, as the uptrend in the market remains intact.  It looks like the fear of being in the market has continued to be replaced by the fear of being out of the market - as many commentators and analysts who had remained incredibly bearish from the S&P low of 666 through the bulk of the rise over the following few weeks have now turned bullish.  Of course, when everyone starts to turn bullish, that's probably a sign that the rally will not be sustained much longer.  On the other hand, to a long-term major institutional investor such as a mutual fund, current versus historical stock valuations still indicate a buying opportunity, not to mention that the market has been in bull mode considerably more than it has been in bear mode - and we have had quite a bear run over the past year and a half...

Quick review:
  • Sold short 165 COF @ $18.25 (with a stop loss that will trigger at $20.29 for a cover at $20.10 - just above the previous intraday high set a couple of weeks ago)
  • Sold short 120 AXP @ $25
  • Sold short 200 CAKE @ $17.75


Relative portfolio weightings:
  • 35% long
  • 19% short


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleStonehenge
Alt Center
Male User Gallery
Registered: 06/20/04
Posts: 14,850
Loc: S.E.
Re: Stock Update for April 24, 2009 - PVH, SDS, AXP, COF, CAKE [Re: geokills]
    #10236295 - 04/26/09 12:45 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

I sold short another 1000 sh of ebay. I expect the market to take a dive in about a week or so.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleStonehenge
Alt Center
Male User Gallery
Registered: 06/20/04
Posts: 14,850
Loc: S.E.
Re: Stock Update for April 24, 2009 - PVH, SDS, AXP, COF, CAKE [Re: Stonehenge]
    #10273886 - 05/02/09 03:27 PM (14 years, 8 months ago)

I just shorted another 1000 ge at 12.80 which was about the high for the day. I put in a limit order and when I checked at the end of the day, it was filled and ge was down to 12.69.

Now chrysler is in bankruptcy and obama is running private industry. And his background is what? Swine flu is becoming a major problem and the next crash is a matter of when, not if. I say we see it this coming week. I expect to make a profit on all my shorts which are under water at the moment. Then there will be easy pickings for going long. Just don't jump in too quickly.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 7 hours, 7 minutes
The Risks Behind the Second Derivative Rally - Doug Kass [Re: Stonehenge]
    #10274157 - 05/02/09 04:30 PM (14 years, 8 months ago)

I tend to agree that the market is in for some downside here soon, as evidenced by my recent moves (noted in a forthcoming update).

In the meanwhile, check out this piece by Doug Kass, posted on RealMoney.com:
Quote:

The Risks Behind the Second Derivative Rally
4/30/2009 9:06 AM EDT

Beginning in early March, the world's equity markets have experienced a classical second derivative rally as the rate of change in the decline in economic activity has decelerated.

Since then, the rally has been breathtaking in duration and scope. And this week, particularly yesterday and this morning (judging by the strength of futures), the ramp seems to be accelerating in almost a furious fashion.

Back two months ago, only a few recognized the opportunity that the market's overshoot to the downside presented nor did many see the second derivative economic improvement (in the developing signs of a lowered rate of decline in the change in economic activity).

Some more vocal bears such as Nouriel "Dr. Doom" Roubini called for more capital market pain and a "zombie decade," resembling Japan (a hat tip to Jim "El Capitan" Cramer on last night's "Mad Money" show for reminding me of the phrase). The majority of market participants also assumed that the massive fiscal and monetary stimulation would fall on deaf economic ears. A large group of observers even talked depression.

That was then, and this is now. With the S&P 500 at an 890 level, Mr. Market has now materially distanced itself from both the 666 level and from the notion of an economic apocalypse.

On a valuation basis, equities are no longer on sale. On a fundamental basis, we have not distanced ourselves and perhaps are too readily dismissing the substantive nontraditional headwinds that will frame the lumpy and inconsistent economic recovery I envision in 2009-11.

The last point merits emphasis in today's opening missive, as the presence of unconventional headwinds poses many risks, and since investors have a limited experience and historical perspective in dealing with them, it likely insures a more volatile market backdrop and places limitations to the market's upside potential.

Some of those nontraditional headwinds include the following:
  • the broad geographic reach of the current recession;

  • the increased burden and cost of regulation;

  • the economic impact of the obliterated (but previously important) shadow banking system and the associated reduction in securitized lending market capacity;

  • the more important role of government in the private sector;

  • the possible impact of protectionism and trade barriers;

  • the degree to which individual and institutional investors have become risk-averse and have been "turned off" to equities; and

  • most important, the unusual causes of the current economic downturn and uncertainty of business confidence that follows from the deleveraging of debt on bank and consumer balance sheets.


As I wrote yesterday, I am increasingly concerned that the same investors/traders that panicked in January to early March are now panicking in the opposite direction in a market that too often worships at the altar of price momentum and that the aforementioned challenges to economic recovery are being ignored.

As seen below, the S&P advance has now eclipsed what was a very optimistic and variant forecast that I presented only two months ago.



I prefer to keep emotion out of my investment equation and to be disciplined in buying what I view as undervaluation and in selling what I view as overvaluation.

From my perch, investors' and the media's increasing market enthusiasm (and even downright breathlessness) could be dangerous to one's financial health in the very near term. And a spread of too much optimism is something that could serve to derail the stock market advance, as I warned about last month.

For the above reasons and others, I have been recently expanding my short book into the impressive strength, and I have been liquidating extended stocks in the industrial cyclical and finance groups as well as reducing my exposure to credit, which has had a helluva run to the upside. The areas on the dark (short) side that I am emphasizing include selected retail and credit card issuers (as the consumer is still in a fragile state), certain financials such as title insurers (higher interest rates pose a threat to refinancings and home turnover) as well as selected technology (in light of a muted capital expenditure cycle). Importantly, shares in these sectors and many of the individual stocks that comprise the groups are all up significantly in price.

I fully recognize that markets often overshoot. The first week in March was an excellent example of an overshoot to the downside. It seems, too, that the last week in April might be another example of an overshoot -- but to the upside.

Buy low and sell high.





Quote:

Posted by Doug Kass on 4/13/2009:

As I look beyond the current market rally I have five additional medium-term concerns:

  1. I am worried that, even though there are currently signs of economic stabilization, the slope of the recovery will be shallow by most historical standards and the possibility of an economic double-dip in late 2009/early 2010 must be considered, particularly in light of a heavily indebted consumer coupled with proposed tax rate increases by the new administration.

  2. The government's policy efforts to ring-fence the banks' toxic assets might not succeed, and the transmission of credit could remain clogged for some time to come. In this instance, not only will economic activity disappoint but still-high yields in the corporate bond market could provide stiff competition to equities.

  3. I remain concerned that investors could grow too optimistic, too fast, in a continued extension of the current market rally. Already, many talking heads in the media who were scared witless a month ago have become born-again permabulls in recent days.

  4. The magnitude of the required policy actions to stabilize the credit market and domestic economy is materially increasing the size of the U.S. deficit and raises our reliance on the kindness of strangers in funding our mounting debt burden. That's a slippery slope in which much can go wrong.

  5. The world remains a political powder keg. Continuing my 1938-1939/2008-2009 parallel, I am concerned that Pakistan is the 1939 geopolitical risk-equivalent of Germany.

    "You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows."

    -- "Subterranean Homesick Blues," Bob Dylan

Regardless of the near-term strength, undoubtedly investors will face a volatile backdrop over the balance of the year in which both corporate managers and investment managers will have a difficult time navigating a lumpy and inconsistent economic growth trajectory.

...

Beyond a summer peak in equities, the market's outlook appears more problematic, and my longer-term expectation of an uneven and inconsistent economic landscape over the next few years remains intact -- an ideal setting for a two-sided market, with opportunities to profit with both long and short positions.




--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 7 hours, 7 minutes
Stock Update for May 1, 2009 - MRO, SDS, BGZ [Re: geokills]
    #10274170 - 05/02/09 04:35 PM (14 years, 8 months ago)

Well, my vacation is over and I'll be back on top of the market with more time over the coming weeks.  Towards the end of my trip, I decided to book some more profits and expand my short positions as the market is showing some signs of change.  For those of you reading closely, you know that I was stopped out of a couple of short positions last month, but as we grind forward I am feeling more comfortable shorting with wider stops.  The three shorts I previously noted last week (CAKE, AXP, & COF) are all returning profits, and should continue to perform especially if the overall market pulls back.

Even though the market remains in its up-trend channel, there are negative divergences coming to light.  The major averages (specifically the Russell 2000) kissed the top of its channel trend line on Thursday and reversed on heavy volume to close near its lows.  The number of stocks making new highs contracted instead of expanded, which is a negative divergence considering that the average hit a higher high than it has in a couple of months.  Various overbought/oversold oscillators are still handily overbought, and with the bank stress test results due out next week and earnings season coming to a close (not to mention the government's involvement in the private sector as well as swine flu concerns), it seems that we are likely to experience some downside in the near future.


  • Marathon Oil (MRO) - Sold 35 shares @ $30.75

    This integrated oil & gas producer and refiner has shown me a handy 37% average gain and although I have already been booking profits in this name over the past month or two, I took off half of my remaining position this past Friday.  There didn't seem to be anything special in their quarterly report out last Thursday, and I am more comfortable holding BP plc (BP) after it reported a more impressive quarter in addition to its more impressive dividend.  At this point, I am playing with the house's money and will probably let this position run without much interference.  On a pullback to $25, I will consider buying more.  If shares stretch to $35, I will let the rest of it go.


  • UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) - Bought 50 shares @ $66

    I was a little early on this purchase, but decided to buy this leveraged fund that returns two times the inverse of the S&P500 average in anticipation of a broader market pullback.  This was done to help offset any damage that may have hurt my long positions while on vacation, as well as to prepare for a pullback in a market that appears overextended to the upside.


  • Direxion Daily Large Cap Bear 3X (BGZ) - Bought 45 shares @ $44

    Again, betting on a broad market pullback, I have initiated a small position in this leveraged fund that returns three times the inverse of the Russell 1000 index.  I will be careful not to overstay my welcome here, as these leveraged funds move very quickly; but I nevertheless maintain that though the market has proven to be especially resilient over the past several weeks, we have moved up quite a bit... and with earnings season coming to a close, there will be little to catalyze an extension of the powerful uptrend over the following month or two.



Discretionary Portfolio as of 5/1/2009:
  • 60.9% Cash
  • 10.5% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 8.6% WalMart (WMT)
  • 6.0% UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)
  • 5.9% PepsiCo (PEP)
  • 5.0% BP plc (BP)
  • 4.3% iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Fund (FXI)
  • 4.3% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
  • 4.0% SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
  • 3.7% Direxion Daily Large Cap Bear 3X (BGZ)
  • 2.3% Marathon Oil (MRO)
  • 2.0% JPMorgan (JPM)

  • 5.4% margined short equivalent Capital One Financial (COF)
  • 5.5% margined short equivalent American Express (AXP)
  • 6.4% margined short equivalent Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)


Relative portfolio weightings (accounting for leveraged long ETF's and margined short positions):
  • 46.9% long
  • 40.4% short


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 7 hours, 7 minutes
Re: Stock Update for May 1, 2009 - MRO, SDS, BGZ [Re: geokills]
    #10284082 - 05/04/09 02:31 PM (14 years, 8 months ago)

Got absolutely crushed on my shorts today!  I'm sticking to my guns however, as my positions are relatively small with respect to my large cash position.  Greed has definitely replaced fear in this market, and while today's performance was undeniably impressive and very encouraging for the bulls, I aim to keep my portfolio hedged and largely in cash.  If we extend to the 1000 level on the S&P quickly, I will really begin to press my shorts heavily.


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleStonehenge
Alt Center
Male User Gallery
Registered: 06/20/04
Posts: 14,850
Loc: S.E.
Re: Stock Update for May 1, 2009 - MRO, SDS, BGZ [Re: geokills]
    #10285071 - 05/04/09 05:07 PM (14 years, 8 months ago)

I put in a limit order for sds at 58. It was down to 60 today. The foolish money is rushing into the market. The tide has to turn soon. Or else we will go down in flames. I'd rather be cashing in and saying I told you so. That wfc you got out of at 15 was over 21 today.

Insiders are dumping their stock

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article10439.html

The Insider Selling Question to Stock Market Trend
Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment May 04, 2009 - 01:18 PM

By: Richard_Shaw

Stock-Markets

The ratio of share sales to share purchases by US insiders shot way into bear territory at the height of the stock market rally in the US stock market during April.

The net sales spike was much higher than at any time in the past year.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleSuperD
Cacti junky
 User Gallery


Registered: 10/05/03
Posts: 6,648
Loc: The bridgesii bridge
Re: Stock Update for May 1, 2009 - MRO, SDS, BGZ [Re: Stonehenge]
    #10296580 - 05/06/09 11:53 AM (14 years, 8 months ago)

I made out like a bandit this morning on PCX.  I set a sell limit at $10.05 to get rid of all my shares, and what is the highest price this stock hit today?  Ding ding ding! $10.05!  I was right on the money.  I considered setting it just a bit higher and I'm glad I didn't because I wouldn't have sold a single share.  I hope you other Shroomerite investors had a good start today.


--------------------
:super:D
Manoa said:
I need to stop spending all my money on plants and take up a cheaper hobby, like heroin. :lol:

Looking for Rauhocereus riosaniensis seeds or live specimen(s), :pm: me if you have any for trade


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 7 hours, 7 minutes
Stock Update for May 6, 2009 - BGZ, SDS, SKF, JCP [Re: SuperD]
    #10296796 - 05/06/09 12:38 PM (14 years, 8 months ago)

Hah, good start... that almost gave me a good laugh.  My short positioning has been "early" - call it what you will, I've been dead wrong.  Fortunately, I am hedged with several long positions, but to have consistently been losing money over the past several days as the market roars higher is discouraging to say the least.  Clearly, I have seriously underestimated the strength of the momentum behind the market's advance from its March low.  I still do not believe that stocks deserve to be valued at the current levels given the headwinds (noted in recent posts) we still have to hurdle, but it really doesn't matter what I think because the market has its own mind and right now it is continuing to panic to the upside.

Wouldn't you know it?  The first short trades I've made in a long while without protective stops, and I'm down 26% on my COF short, another 13% on the AXP short, and about 10% on BGZ and SDS. I've always heard about how the market is a humbling place, but you can be sure that I'm living that message today!  Of course, I shouldn't concern myself too much with where I've been... The question now is, where do I go from here? 

Truth be told, my confidence has been shaken, but given the state of so many indicators as overbought, and the fact that we have reached the general levels that we churned around after the initial market freefall in October of 2008, I am inclined to believe that the S&P will meet strong resistance at the 920 level or 945 level.  Whether or not this will result in a mild or significant correction, who knows?  Given the recent action, it would seem that any correction will be mild and short-lived... which does not bode well for me by any stretch of the imagination.

I am frustrated by the fact that the market continues to rise despite still-poor news.  But I do understand that as a forward pricing mechanism, the market will applaud data that is "less worse" than expected.  All the same, I am absolutely flabbergasted by the violent upside moves the market continues to post in a seemingly irrational fashion day after day, particularly in the financial sector.  Many of these financial firms are boasting stocks that indicate tremendous value, even as many of these same institutions are requiring hundreds of billions in taxpayer subsidies to survive.  It is truly amazing the misbehavior of the markets.  It will end at some point, but that point may still be days away.  My gut tells me that we can stay strong for a couple more days, but that by next week we will begin to see the market correct.

I have added (lightly) to my positions in BGZ and SDS.  I have also added two new small positions, in the SKF and a short on JCP.  Will I be in for more pain?  Only time will tell.  I continue to anticipate the break of our major intermediate-term trend.  Perhaps it isn't the smart thing to do, but it's the only trade that makes sense to me right now.  I'm doing my best not to let my frustrated and beaten down emotions influence my decisions.  Which is why as the market increases its upside slope, logic would hold that the probability of a reversal is now greater than ever... and this is why I'm adding to my shorts, despite the nagging desire to just throw my hands in the air, sell/cover ALL of my positions, take my remaining capital and go spend six months on the beach in Hawaii!

:foreheadslap:

Discretionary Portfolio as of 5/6/2009:
  • 55.1% Cash
  • 11.4% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 9.3% WalMart (WMT)
  • 8.3% UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)
  • 6.4% Pepsico (PEP)
  • 5.8% Direxion Daily Large Cap Bear 3X (BGZ)
  • 5.7% BP plc (BP)
  • 5.2% iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Fund (FXI)
  • 4.6% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
  • 4.4% UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF)
  • 2.7% Marathon Oil (MRO)
  • 2.5% JPMorgan (JPM)

  • 3.4% margined short equivalent JC Penney (JCP)
  • 7.0% margined short equivalent American Express (AXP)
  • 7.3% margined short equivalent Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)
  • 8.1% margined short equivalent Capital One Financial (COF)


--------------------

--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleSuperD
Cacti junky
 User Gallery


Registered: 10/05/03
Posts: 6,648
Loc: The bridgesii bridge
Re: Stock Update for May 6, 2009 - BGZ, SDS, SKF, JCP [Re: geokills]
    #10296879 - 05/06/09 12:58 PM (14 years, 8 months ago)

I feel your pain Geo!  But look on the bright side, you're sitting on 55% profit in today's market.  I think that speaks volumes!  Thanks for the update, I look forward to logging on and checking this thread for updates daily. :thumbup:


--------------------
:super:D
Manoa said:
I need to stop spending all my money on plants and take up a cheaper hobby, like heroin. :lol:

Looking for Rauhocereus riosaniensis seeds or live specimen(s), :pm: me if you have any for trade


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleStonehenge
Alt Center
Male User Gallery
Registered: 06/20/04
Posts: 14,850
Loc: S.E.
Re: Stock Update for May 6, 2009 - BGZ, SDS, SKF, JCP [Re: SuperD]
    #10302850 - 05/07/09 02:22 PM (14 years, 8 months ago)

I know what you mean, geo. In spite of terrible news, the market shoots for the moon. I picked up my sds at less than 58 and it's up a point but today the dow went down 100 pts and sds only went up 1 lousy point?

The economy is still bad, banks are not lending, housing prices are still going down, chrysler is in bk and gm looks very very shaky. Unemployment is at a high and obama is going to tax off shore havens which means more trouble for big multinationals. The swine flu is a big unknown and yet despite all that, the market doesn't know it yet. wfc hit almost 27 today.

The smart money has been leaving for over a month. All that's left is the really stupid money holding up prices. Soon as the stupid people start to wonder if they made a mistake, we should see the long awaited correction. The market took a breather today. I expect more of the same tomorrow. I'm not closing all my shorts tomorrow even though I'm tempted to just take the loss. I think in another week or so we will be vindicated. To throw in the towel now, take a big beating and then see the market tank in a week or two would be the ultimate head slapper.

But it's like holding onto a hot air balloon that you are sure will go back down to the ground. The ground looks awful far down right now and the balloon keeps rising. Margin calls anyone?


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineRedstorm
Prince of Bugs
Male


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 10/08/02
Posts: 44,175
Last seen: 3 months, 11 days
Re: Stock Update for May 6, 2009 - BGZ, SDS, SKF, JCP [Re: Stonehenge]
    #10302863 - 05/07/09 02:24 PM (14 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

The smart money has been leaving for over a month. All that's left is the really stupid money holding up prices.




Do you have a source for this?


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Jump to top Pages: < First | < Back | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | Next > | Last >

Shop: PhytoExtractum Buy Bali Kratom Powder   Unfolding Nature Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order   Left Coast Kratom Kratom Powder For Sale   Bridgetown Botanicals Bridgetown Botanicals   Original Sensible Seeds Bulk Cannabis Seeds   Kraken Kratom Kratom Capsules for Sale   North Spore North Spore Mushroom Grow Kits & Cultivation Supplies


Similar ThreadsPosterViewsRepliesLast post
* Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects
( 1 2 3 4 ... 500 501 )
geokillsA 250,333 10,002 01/27/24 05:04 PM
by geokills
* Does this look legit? The24HourMC 1,559 1 03/01/10 02:43 PM
by geokills
* Helium Network [US]: Low Cost Mobile Service with ROI for Providing Distributed Connectivity geokillsA 209 0 01/21/24 10:48 AM
by geokills
* Pretty good interest on my savings, but best strat? skOsH 191 4 01/21/24 03:40 PM
by Bungmurphy

Extra information
You cannot start new topics / You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled / BBCode is enabled
Moderator: geokills, automan
296,586 topic views. 0 members, 2 guests and 1 web crawlers are browsing this forum.
[ Show Images Only | Sort by Score | Print Topic ]
Search this thread:

Copyright 1997-2024 Mind Media. Some rights reserved.

Generated in 0.028 seconds spending 0.008 seconds on 15 queries.