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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for March 27, 2009 - FCX, FAF, BGZ, GLD [Re: Redstorm]
    #10054599 - 03/27/09 03:43 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

What's the stock? :naughty:


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OfflineRedstorm
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Re: Stock Update for March 27, 2009 - FCX, FAF, BGZ, GLD [Re: geokills]
    #10054623 - 03/27/09 03:46 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

HLX

I've been holding it forever and was going to jump in a little bit ago when it was $2'ish because everyone was terrified about their horrendous earnings and debt levels. Unfortunately I was running short on funds, so I couldn't justify the risk, but it's been a little over $6 up and down recently.

I'll probably just hang onto it during the summer, but I got in at $4 or so, so I feel there's very little risk holding.


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OfflineMadtowntripper
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Re: Stock Update for March 27, 2009 - FCX, FAF, BGZ, GLD [Re: geokills]
    #10054849 - 03/27/09 04:16 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Redstorm said:
Definitely keep posting. I read this every day. I don't really post since I don't have the funds yet to comfortably be able to put into the market, but I love learning.




Yes, definitely keep this up.

I read this thread every day, and if I don't ask more questions than I do it's because you do a quite wonderful job of explaining things and making further exploration easy with your use of links.


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After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus


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Re: Stock Update for March 27, 2009 - FCX, FAF, BGZ, GLD [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #10055105 - 03/27/09 04:51 PM (14 years, 10 months ago)

agreed :thumbup:


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to one who is striking at the root."
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Re: Stock Update for March 27, 2009 - FCX, FAF, BGZ, GLD [Re: Yrat]
    #10059781 - 03/28/09 12:19 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

You have at least 4 regular readers because I read this thread every day too. No doubt there are others who look in occasionally.

Friday was another correction day but a great week overall. I predict a dip in the near future. Many traders are talking about it and have gotten out already. I think there is more profit to be made. I see the dip coming the early part of april. Later in the coming week I'll put my trailing stops in place and prepare to take my profits. I already made as much this month as I thought I'd make the whole year.

People are saying this is a bull run in a bear market. I don't buy that. I don't think it's a bull market yet although I see it going up for the next couple years at least but with dips along the way. I still think we are past the bottom, as I've been saying. The coming dip will not wipe out all the gains of the recent rally. Long termers could just ride it out and make money in the long run. I plan to dodge the dip or try to. I may go short on ebay and maybe ge too.

I plan to use options and may buy some puts, depending on how expensive they are. When I think the dip has bottomed out I'll buy some calls and close out my shorts and buy more stock. It's hard to predict the bottom of a dip just as it's hard to predict the top of a run.

A put option gives the buyer the right to sell the stock at a fixed price. This helps you if the stock goes down below the strike price. You can buy at market and sell at the strike price and make money. A call means you can buy at the strike price. If the stock rises above that price, you can buy the stock and make money. Or you can sell your options rather than buy or sell the stock.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


Edited by Stonehenge (03/28/09 12:25 PM)


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Re: Stock Update for March 27, 2009 - FCX, FAF, BGZ, GLD [Re: Stonehenge]
    #10068175 - 03/29/09 05:02 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

http://www.russell.com/Helping-Advisors/Markets/EconomicRecoveryDashboard.asp

Here's a summary of the indicators.  The leading indicators are trending in the right direction.


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Re: Stock Update for March 27, 2009 - FCX, FAF, BGZ, GLD [Re: Redstorm]
    #10074135 - 03/30/09 02:10 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

The market took a hit today on news of the auto bailout. I had my worst day of the month but not even close to my 3 biggest days of this month. I plan to put a trailing stop on my ebay tomorrow and I'll sit and watch ge for another day to let it recover. I hope this isn't the start of the dip I spoke of. It's not due for a few more days.

What is odd is that gold, silver and precious metals went down too. That makes no sense. I see that silver stock, slv, shows a price of 12.85 while silver spot is over 13. Does that mean slv will catch up? Might be some money to be made there.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for March 30, 2009 - FAF [Re: geokills]
    #10075462 - 03/30/09 05:45 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

Looks like the shorts I initiated last week (heavily on Friday) were quite prescient.  After locking in recent gains for many of my long positions during the ramp that lasted throughout the better part of March (leaving me sitting on 66% cash), and then shifting to a 20 - 25% short position in my portfolio as of last Friday, I am handily in the green today, up about one percent on a day that sees the S&P down three and a half (4.5% relative outperformance!).

  • First American (FAF) - Stopped out of my short position at $26.77

    My trailing stop was triggered on this position today, no material gain or loss - a wash.


Because this pullback has been on low volume and because we are not overbought on an intermediate term basis (though we are still overbought on a short term basis), I am keeping active trailing stops on all my short positions as well as keeping an eye out for more long exposure.  We bounced off of 780 on the S&P, which keeps the market in pretty good health.  Some consolidation (backing and filling) is necessary in order to develop a solid base for future support levels.

780 is proving to have some strength to it, but we still have employment data due at the end of the week which is likely to be ugly, and the first quarter earnings season is likely to be rather bleak as well.  I still believe we can see 750 on the S&P within a week or two, so I am not actively closing any short positions at present, though I am keeping 2 - 4% trailing stops on my shorts in FCX, GS, and HSIC, as well as a trailing stop on BGZ, which was up over 10% today!


Economic Data this week:
  • Tuesday -      CaseShiller Home Price Index, Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence

  • Wednesday -    Challenger Job Cuts, ADP Employment, ISM Manufacturing (36.0 Bloomberg consensus vs 35.8 last month), ISM Prices Paid, Pending Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales

  • Thursday -      Initial Jobless Claims, Factory Orders; FASB mark-to-market accounting decision expected; G20 meeting begins

  • Friday -        Employment Report: Nonfarm Payrolls (-660k Bloomberg consensus), Manufacturing Payrolls (-160k consensus), Unemployment Rate (8.5% consensus up from 8.1%), Avg. Hourly Earnings, Avg. Weekly Hours; ISM Non-Manufacturing; Bernanke speaks at Richmond Fed credit markets conference



I will be looking to begin accumulating stock into further weakness.  The banks were a little to hot for me to jump into today, even as they pulled back fairly strongly.  But I am keeping an eye on them.    Here's my shopping list.  I will be working on my individual buy levels for these stocks over the coming week.

  • Chevron - CVX
  • Goldman Sachs - GS
  • Wells Fargo - WFC
  • Johnson & Johnson - JNJ
  • Nordic American Tanker - NAT
  • Google - GOOG
  • SPDR Gold Trust - GLD
  • McDonalds - MCD
  • Lowes - LOW
  • Verizon - VZ
  • Gilead Sciences - GILD
  • Terra Nitrogen - TNH
  • Ultra S&P500 - SSO
  • Direxion Triple Bull Financials - FAS



Discretionary Portfolio as of 3/30/2009:
  • 61.8% Cash
  • 11.3% Walmart (WMT)
  • 10.3% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 5.0% Direxion Triple Bear Russell 1000 Large Cap (BGZ)
  • 4.5% BP plc (BP)
  • 4.4% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
  • 4.1% SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
  • 4.0% Pepsico (PEP)
  • 4.0% Altria (MO)
  • 3.7% iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Fund (FXI)
  • 3.7% Marathon Oil (MRO)

  • 4.6% margined short equivalent Henry Schein (HSIC)
  • 4.8% margined short equivalent Goldman Sachs (GS)
  • 7.4% margined short equivalent Freeport McMoRan (FCX)


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OfflineRedstorm
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Re: Stock Update for March 30, 2009 - FAF [Re: geokills]
    #10076064 - 03/30/09 07:19 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

I was gonna buy in to some more this week and then I got my auto repair bill back. :sad: Not good.


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for March 30, 2009 - FAF [Re: Redstorm]
    #10080713 - 03/31/09 02:22 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

An up day but I didn't make a lot. I put in my trailing stops and ended up selling all my ge at 10.21, up about .33 or so from yesterdays close. It closed today at 10.11. It's good to lock in those profits. I bought 3000 ge at 6.97 and just 1000 shares at 8.50 but made a tasty profit even on those and made good money on the 6.97 ones. All that happened this month except I bought the 8.50 ge shares the end of feb. So in a months time I made 39% on a substantial volume of stock. That is considered great in a years time and even in 2 years time. But now I have short term capital gains to deal with on next years taxes. I might discover that I made less on my regular income which keeps me out of a higher tax bracket but looks like uncle sam is going to be doing his thing. Oh well.

My other large position is ebay and it was up today. I put in my trailing stop which sits at 12.45 now and might move up as the stock advances. I bought 4000 shares of it at various prices averaging 12.06. The worst I can do is make .39 x 4000 which is not bad. I'm likely to short ebay after I get out. I may sell all my stock tomorrow because I think the dip is coming. I might keep my silver though commodities have been dropping along with stocks.

Geo, you did well to get out by friday and go short. The little gains today did not wipe out the losses of yesterday. I still have a shot at the upside tomorrow because I'm predicting the dip to hit early april so wednesday is a possible profit day. There will be an opportunity to go short and I may do so.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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InvisibleConfucian
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Re: Stock Update for March 30, 2009 - FAF [Re: Stonehenge]
    #10081310 - 03/31/09 03:54 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

I'm new to the site and this is my first post. I agree that there could be another downturn soon but this Thursday the FASB will be voting on the mark to market changes which could dramatically boost share prices in the financial sector. Here is an excerpt from Bloomberg with the link:
Quote:

Four days after U.S. lawmakers berated Financial Accounting Standards Board Chairman Robert Herz and threatened to take rulemaking out of his hands, FASB proposed an overhaul of fair-value accounting that may improve profits at banks such as Citigroup Inc. by more than 20%.

The changes proposed on March 16 to fair-value, also known as mark-to-market accounting, would allow companies to use "significant judgment" in valuing assets and reduce the amount of writedowns they must take on so-called impaired investments, including mortgage-backed securities. A final vote on the resolutions, which would apply to first-quarter financial statements, is scheduled for April 2.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=awSxPMGzDW38&refer=home




Right now I'm holding FAS, DRYS, CSIQ, and KFN.

I'm down on FAS so pretty much stuck with it for a while. I got KFN a couple of Friday's ago 10 minutes before the close at $0.49/share. I got lucky on the timing cause a few minutes after I got it, it popped to $0.65 and hasn't looked back (KFN had a day high of $1.06 and closed at $0.88).

Just got CSIQ last Thursday (it's a Canadian solar energy stock). Some news came out today that the industry could experience extreme growth over the next 3 years. CSIQ was at $5.10-$5.20 a share when the news came out and jumped to a high of $6.47 within a couple hours but closed at $5.98.

I'm down a little bit on DRYS (I got it as an earnings play) a day before they released their 4th quarter results.


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Stock Update for March 30, 2009 - FAF [Re: Confucian]
    #10087426 - 04/01/09 02:12 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

I sold off my ebay today and shorted just under 1000 shares at 13.14 and shorted 2000 shares of ge at 10.17. I think they will drop like stones tomorrow. I sold my bp today at 40.25 but did not short. That locks in my profit on all those. The market went up again today so the bears did poorly but I expect tomorrow to change all that. We will see.

In case anyone wonders what commissions it cost me to do the recent trades, just for example yesterday I sold 4000 shares of ge. The commission was $7. If I had sold them 100 shares at a time it would have cost me 7 x 40 or $280 in commissions for selling the same number of shares. Ge did not go up today so there would have been no benefit in selling a few and waiting. It's just my opinion but I think it's better to do things all at once. If you are right over 50% of the time you will come out ahead. If you are right less than 50% of the time you will lose money no matter what you do.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for April 1, 2009 - CELG, GILD, MO, FCX, GS, BGZ [Re: geokills]
    #10091066 - 04/01/09 11:01 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

Just a note that I'm out of all financial positions (short & long) ahead of the highly anticipated mark-to-market announcement due tomorrow.  There's just no telling which way it could swing things, and I'm not so interested in gambling as I am in making educated guesses!  I am keeping some skin in the game, but only my favorite stocks, and will maintain high levels of cash until I feel that we have become materially oversold or overbought, at which point I will add to my longs or begin shorting, respectively.  Right now, the market has been grinding around a bit and while I believe we are due for a stronger pullback, I cannot fight the the fact that the market has proven exceptionally resilient so far this week.

Celgene (CELG), a biotech position I closed several weeks ago, fell over 13% today after forecasting weak sales.  That goes to show that even the most life saving cancer drugs are not immune to the recession.  While this probably offers a good entry point for the fastest growing biotech stock, I already have some biotech exposure with Gilead (GILD), and I don't want to lean too heavily on that sector until we have a clearer picture of how Obama's healthcare agenda is going to affect the companies within (currently, it is being perceived as a big headwind and is likely to keep a lid on the sector).

Let's see, what else... I've been trying to get a borrow on MGM or LVS to short for weeks now... but it just ain't happening.  I closed the rest of my position in Altria (MO), because even though the dividend is great, the chart just isn't looking to nice and the potential reduction in sales volume on account of heady price increases will likely keep pressure on the stock until we get to see the actual numbers in subsequent quarterly reports.  Made good money on my FCX & GS shorts.  BGZ also paid off handsomely, but FAF didn't go anywhere - fortunately, I was stopped out before I incurred any losses.

That just about covers the last few days.  If we run up on the major averages toward the end of the week, I will likely scale back into some shorts come Friday, but at this point there's just no good feel for the near term direction on account of the fact that we are hovering at the S&P's 50 day moving average in conjunction with the mark-to-market account announcement tomorrow and the unemployment numbers on friday (which are setting up to look rather dismal).


Discretionary Portfolio as of 4/1/2009:
  • 62.6% Cash
  • 10.2% Walmart (WMT)
  • 9.2% Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  • 4.1% BP plc (BP)
  • 3.8% Gilead Sciences (GILD)
  • 3.7% SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
  • 3.5% Pepsico (PEP)
  • 3.5% iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Fund (FXI)
  • 3.4% Marathon Oil (MRO)

  • 4.0% margined short equivalent Henry Schein (HSIC)


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Re: Stock Update for April 1, 2009 - CELG, GILD, MO, FCX, GS, BGZ [Re: geokills]
    #10117534 - 04/06/09 03:23 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

I missed the timing on the market dip, looks like it'll be this week instead of the end of last week like I thought. I managed to sell short another 1000 shares of ebay at  13.99 so I'll probably be dumping that in a day or two at a nice profit. Silver oddly has dropped but it's mostly a long term deal anyway just like gold. I should have staying in a couple days longer and sold perhaps friday. It's hard to get everything right.


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“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for April 1, 2009 - CELG, GILD, MO, FCX, GS, BGZ [Re: Stonehenge]
    #10118062 - 04/06/09 05:02 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

Nobody ever gets everything right.  I'd hope you aren't bothered by that 'cause it'll drive you to neurosis!  :crazy2:

I was stopped out of my short position in Henry Schein (HSIC).  Been dealing with burst pipes and flooding nightmares for some rental property, as well as having to show and rent out a recently vacated unit, so I'm not likely to be very active in trading this week.  Comfortable sitting on cash while I tend to other issues of pressing concern.

850 is strong resistance on the S&P 500, and I'd bet that the market is likely to flounder around, backing and filling for several weeks.  A pullback of around 10% would be healthy.  But we have seen a very impressive and strong rally, and I plan to use any significant weakness in the coming months to do some buying.


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OfflineMadtowntripper
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Re: Stock Update for April 1, 2009 - CELG, GILD, MO, FCX, GS, BGZ [Re: geokills]
    #10131393 - 04/08/09 04:30 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

Two questions for you market types.

1)  Do you think the government will begin limiting short selling?  Do you think this is the right thing to do, or is only a late reaction to something that isn't a huge issue anymore?

2)  Do you think 8,000 in the DJI is a kind of psychological barrier at the moment?  It seems to me from watching, and I'm strictly an ignorant observer, that every time we get a decent amount below that level recently we head back up, but that if we hit about 8,000 there begins to be profit-taking and the average goes down.  Is that just something I'm imagining, or an actual force at work?

Thanks for your replies, as always.


--------------------
After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus


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Re: Stock Update for April 1, 2009 - CELG, GILD, MO, FCX, GS, BGZ [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #10131675 - 04/08/09 05:08 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

They have already limited short selling to some degree. My broker requires 40% margin at least. The dow has gotten below 8000 a few times already. I predict a dip and then a recovery by the end of the month. I'm short right now and did well yesterday. I plan to close out my shorts probably by the end of this week and then a little later to go long. Gold is down and might be a good buy right now. You will be astonished at the price of gold in a few years when the obama inflation hits.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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OfflineRedstorm
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Re: Stock Update for April 1, 2009 - CELG, GILD, MO, FCX, GS, BGZ [Re: Stonehenge]
    #10132532 - 04/08/09 07:36 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

I got out of my one stock today at 7.75. I'm pretty happy with that considering I bought in at just above 4.00.  Now I need to either wait for it to pull back or start looking around more. Maybe the earnings season will knock down some prices for me.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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On Short Selling and Dow 8000 (support/resistance) [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #10133077 - 04/08/09 09:18 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

> 1)  Do you think the government will begin limiting short selling? 

First, let's review that short selling is the practice of borrowing shares in a stock from someone else (traditionally your brokerage house or bank), then selling these borrowed shares on the open market in order to wait for the stock to come down so that you can buy real shares on the open market to "cover" your borrow, also known as covering your short.  You then pocket the difference from the funds you received when you sold the borrowed shares, less the amount you had to pay to return those borrowed shares to their rightful owner.

Technically, there are already rules on the books that make sense to responsibly limit short selling by requiring those who sell short, to have a bonafide and verifiable borrow of the shares from a long-side holder (such as your brokerage house or bank).  The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been negligent in their enforcement of this rule, which has lead to a lot of illegal Naked Short Selling.  Not as nifty as it sounds, naked short selling is simply the practice of selling shares short on the open market that you never actually borrowed.  In other words, a naked short seller is fabricating sales which can drive down the share price of a stock, without rights to any real shares on borrow which would act as collateral for the short sale.


> Do you think [increased short sale regulation] is the right thing to do, or is only a late reaction to something that isn't a huge issue anymore?

So long as there is a lack of enforcement, it doesn't matter how many rules and regulations are put on the books.  Fortunately, the SEC is starting to see the light and it seems like the relentless naked short selling has started to slow down for fears of prosecution.  I've noted this first hand as my TDAmeritrade brokerage account has more recently been denying my requests to short various casino stocks like MGM and LVS.  These stocks already have a large percentage of their float (outstanding shares) sold short, so naturally, it will be harder to borrow shares in these stocks since most available outstanding shares have already been "lent" to the existing shorts.

On the uptick rule, I think it makes sense to reinstate the rule.  This would require a buyer to come in and bid up a stock in between individual short sales, which prevents a short seller from endlessly dumping shares on the market to drive down the share price of a given issue.  I have discussed this in the past and written the SEC as well as my congressional rep's about it.  To the point, the combination of naked short selling and the lack of an uptick rule has given an unfair advantage to the shorts. This issue is exacerbated by the leveraged downside ETF's such as the various iterations of UltraShort ProShares that boast two to three times built-in leverage - thereby allowing shorts to circumvent specified margin limits since the short seller can simultaneously use their own margin account to leverage up on their leveraged ETF investments, compounding the selling pressure on certain sectors and stocks many fold.  While I have used leveraged short ETF's such as the SDS, SKF, and BGZ; I never compound margin and instead make a habit of keeping enough cash in my account to offset the entire leveraged value of the short position.


> Do you think 8,000 in the DJI is a kind of psychological barrier at the moment?

Big round numbers are often laced with at least some psychological significance.  Afterall, the market's movements rely on human psychology, and who can resist a deliciously round number like 8000?  But seriously, levels become more important each time the direction or trend reverses at a given level. 

What makes Dow 8000 important right now, is that it had provided a lot of support for the market during the initial spike down in October 2008, and continued to provide support for the next four months.  That is to say, the initial spike down fizzled out shortly after breaching Dow 8000, and the market continued to bounce off of that level over the subsequent several months of churning volatility. 

When we decisively broke that level in February 2009, we "failed support", which makes Dow 8000 the new upside resistance, instead of previously offering downside support.  This phenomena occurs because everyone who was getting involved at Dow 8000 with hopes that it would hold support and bounce are now underwater (losing money).  Many of these traders have weak hands and become part of the "I just want my money back!" crowd, so that if and when the market can recover to the level that they had initially piled in (previous support, ie. Dow 8000), they will start to lighten up on their positions once their realized losses have been trimmed back to the flat line.



I hope that all came through clearly.  I've had a helluva busy few days here with a major plumbing disaster on one of the buildings I'm managing.  Fortunately that's resolved, but I still need to clean up and rent a separate unit ASAP, and finish my personal taxes this week! 

A bit frazzled I am.  :eek:

But happy to be mostly in cash, so I won't have to stress about my portfolio in the midst of all my other obligations! :whoa:


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Re: On Short Selling and Dow 8000 (support/resistance) [Re: geokills]
    #10184771 - 04/17/09 01:41 PM (14 years, 9 months ago)

man looks like i have a lot of reading and watching to do. i was just looking to dump money in the market but i have to make some more sense of it and get use to it first.

great thread and another constant reader from now on :-)


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