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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] * 1
    #28437526 - 08/17/23 07:24 PM (5 months, 8 days ago)



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Everything I have ever said is total bogus bs I am full of crud therefore everything I say should never be taken literal.

And I am mentally unstable.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: budmanman]
    #28438182 - 08/18/23 12:49 PM (5 months, 7 days ago)

I'm taking a little bit of META Sept $280 calls and SSO common today.  Just easing in, not swinging for the fences, but it's starting to feel like we could be in for a throwback to some of the major moving averages (META's 50 day @ $295-296 or +5%, SSO to $57-$58 or +4%).  Not a screaming buy or anything, but the fear & greed index is starting to flirt with the "fear" gauge, and we've had quite a bit of sustained selling.  Things don't often move in a straight line, and I think we're due for a bit of a reversion.  Hard stops at the low of day, of course.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28441623 - 08/21/23 11:27 AM (5 months, 5 days ago)

META calls performing well, stop moved up to low of day just under $282.  Doubled down on SSO, and moved stop up on full position to just under LOD ($55.49) to mitigate risk of loss.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28441817 - 08/21/23 01:56 PM (5 months, 4 days ago)

Looking to be a pretty strong close, so I'm going to let these positions swing overnight.  NVDA and TSLA were the better plays today, but my boy was kind enough to bring some COVID home from his third day of first grade last week, and so I was mostly just laying on my futon all morning as it just hit me yesterday. :crazy2:

Nevertheless, tripling the S&P's daily return of 0.7% feels alright! :rockon:


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28442844 - 08/22/23 01:31 PM (5 months, 3 days ago)

Flat again.  Pretty crappy day.  Trade small or not at all.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28443725 - 08/23/23 11:16 AM (5 months, 3 days ago)

Interesting strength this morning, but I'm weary of NVDA's earnings after the bell.  I assume they'll be good, but how good are they going to have to be to impress the market?  Kinda of a big wildcard since there's so much attention focused on it, and I don't really like playing on wildcards.

URA, a uranium ETF, is showing some nice signs of life here.  No position.

DKS got slaughtered on its earnings report yesterday, bouncing a bit today, so I'm buying just a little bit of common for a throwback trade, stop at the day's lows of $106.11, and considering adding a little more and laddering a second stop just below VWAP.  The options spreads on this one are too wide with minimal open interest and expensive premiums due to the high volatility selloff.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28445019 - 08/24/23 12:00 PM (5 months, 2 days ago)

Alright, NVDA earnings out of the way.  Hallelujah!

      :sagan:


As if on cue, I get a text message after the close yesterday from a friend and novice investor who has been buying NVDA and states "hope it becomes the next amzn in terms of stock performance".  Clearly blinded by the lights, I note the following:

Quote:

Your time horizon is lagged out brother.. NVDA is already comparable to AMZN.  Their total valuations are 1.16 and 1.39 TRILLION $, respectively, and that's based on the market close.  With the positive after hours earnings pop, NVDA is approaching 1.25T in capitalization.  So yeah, although you probably didn't personally bag the full monty, the cards have been played.  Not to say NVDA can't keep going, because they have a near monopoly on the highest quality GPU's required for the most advanced generative AI and machine learning technology (it's the picks and shovels trade for the AI revolution)... but it's a crowded trade at this point, and it's always important to book some profits whenever you land a windfall.




The response?..

Quote:

I like that info.  I'm full send based on what ur saying.




:lolsy:

Well as I kind of expected would happen, NVDA gapped up above $500 and has since fallen back to settle in the $480's (and who knows where she closes?).  Still a nice trade, but we can clearly see that there is not a lot of money out there looking to aggressively jump into the stock here.  And that's because the theme is well known and anyone who wanted to get in, is already in.  Sure, more money will trickle in as the theme continues to prove itself (that's why the stock is higher today)... BUT, and this is incredibly important to understand, the folks who have been in for the ride up to this point, are now starting to say to themselves "Hrmm... I am up HUGE, it's probably time to take some profits."  Hence why we see a gap higher open, driven by the novice retail crowd that tends to overbid in the pre/post market sessions, and then at the market open when the big money starts moving stock, selling quite literally immediately after the first few ticks.

Now the big boys aren’t dumb.  NVDA's not going anywhere.  It's picks and shovels - infrastructure - for the gold rush, everyone needs their GPU's right now.  Their problem is that they can't build them as fast as people want them, and that is indeed a very high quality problem.  But the institutions that have bagged big money on this, are happy to dish out some stock on big pumps, and then back off to allow the price to settle a bit.  They don't want to crash the stock, but they do want to take advantage of positive price dislocation.  They're asking themselves "who is behind me?" in the trade... and they realize that their allocations are already so damn full on the trade, that it's mostly undercapitalized investors hopping on board at this particular moment.  And so, they'll happily sell to those guys to rebalance their portfolio and book some profits.  And if the market takes a big swoon, they'll happy buy back the shares that the little guys are selling in a panic at a loss, rinse and repeat.

That's the market folks, you probably didn't hear it here first, but it's an important thing to understand and respect if you're going to actively trade your own money.


Alright that's enough about NVDA....

Market overall ricocheting right off the underside of the S&P's 50 day moving average.  This is an expected move, as the 50 day should have held as support, and since it was strongly broken, the throw back move is now being met with resistance at the prior support level.  Frankly, I'm agnostic at this point.  I think the action is relatively healthy as the market was moving at full clip (albeit largely driven by only a handful of leaders) for quite some time, and that is never sustainable.  I am mindful that the rollover here at the 50 day could spell a visit to the 200 day ~4200 on the S&P, or another ~5% down.  And that's totally OK with me.  Frankly, I'd like to see it, along with a bounce at that level, as I think that would effectively help to cleanse the market of some of the overexuberance and high concentration in the megacap techs that we've been seeing over the summer.  Let's broaden out a bit and recall that there are thousands of other companies out there that have more room to grow.

Keep an open mind.  Don't project your beliefs on the market.  Watch the market, understand its dynamics, and react accordingly.  Alert on SPY > $445, that would be a signal that we are resuming the uptrend.  Another alert at SPY < $433, that would signal a probable visit to the 200 day down around $420, which would effectively test the late spring/early summer breakout in the market.

Those are the levels to watch friends, best of luck and good fortune! :rockon:


PS.  I'm out of DKS for the quick profits.  It may have more to go, but I'll just keep an alert > $114.50 (the day's highs), and if I'm at my desk tomorrow and it moves above, I'll probably put a chunk of common back in play with a trailing stop.  Nice to be up on an otherwise down day.  Would've liked to fade the market more aggressively today (especially those megacap leaders I've been talking about), but I'm still dealing with the tail end of my covid infection, and the NyQuil had me rather spacey this morning!  Opted to take the dog on a gentle trail walk instead.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28445222 - 08/24/23 02:53 PM (5 months, 1 day ago)

Well, the close pretty much said all that needs to be said ($3 Billion to sell @ market-on-close).  This market gapped and crapped HARD today, right off the 50 and down-sloping 20 day MA's on the S&P.  Don't buy into this.

There are a few pretty decent looking short opportunities here... DIS hitting multi-year lows, that's got a ways to go.  Will be watching for a tag of the underside of its 8 day EMA as an opportunity to buy some puts (they'll be a little too expensive tomorrow given the increase in volatility here, so best to have some patience).  AI looks like it probably wants to go lower (sitting on its 200 day EMA right now, but sold off on the highest volume we've seen since August 2nd).  META bleeding off the underside of its 50 day, MSFT as well.  Money is rotating out of the yesterday's themes, the megacap tech are not going to carry this market right here.

I'm basically flat, still have small, profitable positions in MDC and ORIC, up 35% and 72% respectively, but I will be placing a stop on MDC at $45.21, this week's low print... the stock just looks plain weak now, held down by its 8 day EMA and under its 50 day MA for the first time in many months.  ORIC is still behaving, and that's not too surprising since this is a biotech play that tends to move relative to the studies they have underway, and the potential catalysts from the results of those studies.  They have three major study updates in the pipe over the next 3-12 months, for potentially big drugs, so I'm happy to hang onto this one, it sure has treated me well so far!  If it doesn't hold its 50 day MA however, that will cause me to reconsider.

Remember:  HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY.  The market is sent a very clear message today, risk is exceptional right here, right now.  Don't be the guy that held onto your positions and a week or two later is sullen about not having lightened up.  Protect your capital, so that you'll still have capital when the market turns, and you won't be scrambling simply to recover lost ground.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28445405 - 08/24/23 05:12 PM (5 months, 1 day ago)

The other day I bought a extra share of scotia bank

I'm working on getting my divendeds higher, I was to make it so I get $20 in divendeds at a time so I can use it to enjoy a pizza once in a while

My xlm crypto is up too, I sold a bit a while back


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For most of the normies out there, an operating system is just a bootloader for Google Chrome.

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My pronouns are He and Him, and my adjectives are Fat and Jazzy

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28446134 - 08/25/23 07:40 AM (5 months, 1 day ago)

With the tiny bit of pressure relief this morning, I am legging into a DIS short, via Oct $85 puts @ ~$4.  With $2 of intrinsic value on the contracts, and the long term chart breakdown, it seems likely that DIS will easily fall below the breakeven mark of $81 in the next two months.

I am also putting on a little bit of FSLY common.  This thing has been bucking the weakness in the market something fierce, and if I'm going to get involved, it's going to be in names that have remained resilient and above their key moving averages, as others have melted down.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28446167 - 08/25/23 08:08 AM (5 months, 1 day ago)

Buying some SDS common as well (a 2X short on the SPY).  Stop at LOD.

Edit:  Stopped out, wooee, real battleground out there this morning.


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Edited by geokills (08/25/23 08:16 AM)


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28450861 - 08/29/23 08:09 AM (4 months, 28 days ago)

GOOGL been trading sideways for the last month after earnings.  Looks like it wants to breakout today.  Picked up a handful of Sept $132.50 calls, initial stop at $132.49.

FSLY still marching along its upper bollinger band.  A bit extended, but working just fine and up volume over the past week has been remarkable (look at the daily green bars towering over the lower volume red pullback days - that's institutional accumulation right there).

Almost got a fill on a second tranche of DIS puts, but just missed getting hit yesterday by a few pennies.  8 day EMA still holding down price.  I think it might come up to test the 20 day if the market remains resilient, so I'm not going to rush to build this position, but it does seem likely that DIS is going to keep melting down... particularly as they don't really have any major releases in the pipe and their streaming business isn't making the money Wall street had hoped for.

Overall, I'm a bit surprised the S&P has retraced its big pullback from last Thursday.  I still think the market feels a little heavy, but I won't deny that it is showing some resilience here, and that's why I'm OK being opportunistic with things like GOOGL, which haven't really pulled back, and are starting to break out of a squeeze.  And FSLY, which is in a de facto uptrend.  URA continuing to work as well, but I never bought any of that.  Honorable mention to NVDA, pulled back a bit after earnings, but stabilized very quickly at its 8 day EMA.  Looks like it's not done going higher.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28451172 - 08/29/23 01:27 PM (4 months, 27 days ago)

Picked up a few more GOOGL calls on the intraday pullback to VWAP.  $135's this time. :yesnod:


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28451479 - 08/29/23 06:17 PM (4 months, 27 days ago)

Honestly, I thought the market was going to fail on the underside retest of the 50 day MA on the SPY.  That didn't happen.  And when what you THINK is going to happen, DOESN'T, that's merits attention.  At the risk of whiplash, I am back to building long side exposure, and I think any other active market participants should do the same.

Cryptos are on the move (see the crypto thread for why).  GBTC, MARA, RIOT, et al... big moves here.  If you don't have crypto exposure directly, these are viable ways to play the move.  I know it seems silly to buy MARA on an up 30% day, but honestly (unless you have a very short term time horizon) you're probably not too late.

ADBE, GOOGL, NVDA... good places to be.

To a lesser but also positive extent, AAPL, ARKK, META, TSLA, XLV.

Get it while ya can. :rockon:


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28452271 - 08/30/23 10:54 AM (4 months, 27 days ago)

Why fight the tape?  Added a single Oct $500 NVDA call.  This thing was bought up very quickly after its little post-earnings pullback.  Nothing moves in a straight line, but this thing is probably going to double again ($1000) before the story fizzles out.

Also finally got my fill on a few more DIS Oct $85 puts @ $3.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28452379 - 08/30/23 12:36 PM (4 months, 26 days ago)

I can't figure out why anyone would buy NVDA at this point. It seems like FOMO and its due for a major pull back. Thinking about opening shorts or maybe longing NVDS


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Hikeadellic]
    #28452494 - 08/30/23 02:57 PM (4 months, 26 days ago)

It is true that the trade is fairly crowded.  However, the reason why people would still buy NVDA here is because their business has changed and thus their valuation metrics are not the same as they were a year ago.  They are no longer a graphics card company and their primary industry is no longer consumer electronics.  NVDA is now the primary hardware provider for an entirely new and growing industry, namely machine learning and artificial intelligence.  Because this industry is accelerating in growth, NVDA as the dominant hardware provider that does not currently have ample capacity to fulfill the exceptional level of demand for their products, will also be able to increase production and accelerate revenue growth as well, thereby growing into what at first glance may appear to be a rich valuation.

This is reflected in their PEG (price to earnings growth) ratio, which is around 1.5X.  Generally speaking, momentum names with a PEG ratio at or below 1 are a steal, and a PEG over 2 would be considered expensive.  However, amongst NVDA's industry peers, the PEG averages 2, so both on an absolute and a relative metric, NVDA isn't too expensive, because their exceptional growth rate is high enough to support it.

It may be hard for you to buy here (the best stocks to own often are!), but I sure as shit wouldn't short the stock.  Both the stock's technical price action and fundamental backdrop is deadly strong.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28452606 - 08/30/23 05:13 PM (4 months, 26 days ago)

Howdy all!!

Just an update - Last week after the first day of strength i bought in at about 80% exposure. The next day shit dropped again but I stuck to my guns in anticipation of a climb higher over the coming weeks. So far so good. I still have a bit of cash that i was holding in case I was wrong. Will figure out where to drop that tomorrow, but feel like now is a good time to be fully exposed.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH] * 1
    #28453321 - 08/31/23 08:43 AM (4 months, 26 days ago)

Not bad amigo.  I'm quite surprised to see the market retake its 50 day with such authority.  Was rather cautious as a result, but have been grinding out some steady gains all the same.  My first tranche of GOOGL $132.50 calls are up 60%, and I've moved my stop up to VWAP, to lock in at least +40% on the position.  My second tranche of $135's are up 35%, and I also moved the stop on those up to VWAP, as the S&P is now on its 5th up day, which is pretty unusual and I would expect yet another test of the 50 day MA on the S&P to take place in the next week.

FSLY common is up 15% and continuing to hug that upper bollinger band.  Getting a little extended here, but just going to let this one work.  Zooming out to the weekly chart, and it's easy to envision this thing just continuing to climb for a while.

DIS puts are underwater about 18%, the position isn't huge, and expiration is all the way out to October.  Couple that with DIS being held under its 8 day EMA despite all the market strength over the past week, and losing VWAP pretty much every day, I still think this position is going to work, but it's not a momentum type stock and will require some patience.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28453356 - 08/31/23 09:18 AM (4 months, 26 days ago)

Very nice man. You were right to be cautious, I paid more of a premium than was necessary being too eager.


Congrats on GOOGL - It’s on my short list but I didn’t grab that one. Also noted about 50 day MA to be tested. Maybe will tighten up my stops heading into the weekend.


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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