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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: encryptor]
#28417380 - 08/02/23 11:35 AM (5 months, 24 days ago) |
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Things are looking ugly right now. I had some exposure which has cost me a small portion, and am half tempted to just clear these items and anticipate further downward movement. Guess trimming is the best move, so halving everything for time being (except Panasonic)
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#28417419 - 08/02/23 12:16 PM (5 months, 23 days ago) |
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Action has been pretty gross today, largely catalyzed by the headline news about the Fitch ratings downgrade on the good ol' USA. Kinda a non-event in my opinion (tens of trillions in debt, seems crazy the credit rating remains as good as it is!.. but when nearly the whole world is playing the same race to the bottom, I guess that's just how it goes)... anyway, the important thing is that the market doesn't care what I think, and the market is reacting poorly. We have been extended, and in high greed territory, so this is a good a reason as any to correct a bit and circle the wagons.
For my part, I have set a stop at the intraday lows on my placeholder position in MSFT. It's below its 50 day now, and if it can't hold today's low, I'm out. Same goes for BOTZ. My options there are still up 100%, but it has decisively broken its 50 day today, and if it doesn't immediately recover from today's intraday lows, I'm out.
META remains in trend, tagging its 8 day EMA today, with all major moving averages stacked and trending higher. I actually added to the position here (lightly), but also implemented a stop just below the intraday low on the full position. I want to be open minded and concentrate my capital into positions that are proving their resilience (like META), but if the market turns, I'm not going to let it bleed me out. I instinctively wanted to add to MSFT today as well, but as it has so clearly broken support at its 50 day moving average now, it's just not the right thing to do. If it can fully retrace the move and close green today, I might add a bit at that time, but that's a pretty tall order and not something I expect will happen.
Put bluntly, the market has been in need of a bit of a correction to shake out some of the overexuberance and tip its hand with respect to where the leadership remains, and no one ever knows how deep these pullbacks might go when they begin... so tighten up your stops and play it close to the vest, but keep an open mind toward the reality that the market appears to remain resilient on longer term time frames, and this could simply be "the pause that refreshes" the run higher.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28417427 - 08/02/23 12:23 PM (5 months, 23 days ago) |
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Just another quick note that in addition to META, I'm liking the way CAVA, MDC, MARA and PLTR are behaving today. I'm sure there are more signs of resilient issues out there (please post them if you've been seeing well behaved stocks amidst the pullback!), but these are the ones that jump out on my screen at the moment.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28417438 - 08/02/23 12:32 PM (5 months, 23 days ago) |
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Ended up buying a little bit of PLTR and CAVA common stock here. Keeping in mind PLTR has earnings right around the corner on August 8th, but if it can pop back up to $20, I'll sell some weekly calls against it to generate a bit of income, and cut the position in half (at least) before earnings next week, one way or the other; either getting the shares called away or just outright ditching them on Monday or Tuesday.
Although the market looks ugly, the S&P is sitting right on its 20 day moving average, which played as support throughout June and July. Active trendline support is slightly lower at S&P 4450-4460-ish (and the 50 day at 4400 should definitely hold if this uptrend is worth its salt), but I don't mind putting a little bit in play on the most resilient issues, when we find ourselves nearing short-term support levels on a deep down day.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
Edited by geokills (08/02/23 12:37 PM)
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gopher
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28417520 - 08/02/23 01:54 PM (5 months, 23 days ago) |
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I'm one more dividend away from being able to buy a share of pslv
-------------------- For most of the normies out there, an operating system is just a bootloader for Google Chrome. Since Disney has obtained tremendous value from the public domain, knows how important the public domain is, and is firmly determined to never contribute anything to it. My pronouns are He and Him, and my adjectives are Fat and Jazzy
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28418716 - 08/03/23 12:52 PM (5 months, 22 days ago) |
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Stopped out of MSFT, BOTZ, sloppy open also clipped half of my position in META (should have been all of it but one of my conditional triggers was erroneously set to expire yesterday so it didn't execute this morning). Reinstated stop on the remainder just below $312. Added a small amount of common to my position in PLTR, but overall very cash heavy and waiting for the market to settle.
TSLA with an interesting bounce here at its 50 day. Could be worth a shot, but you'd better keep a hard stop at $252. 8 day EMA has been holding this thing down ever since earnings, so it's not my ideal trade, even as the tag of the 50 day makes me wonder if it's ready to stabilize.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28420429 - 08/04/23 12:17 PM (5 months, 21 days ago) |
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Market still languishing. I just decided to shut all trading positions down. Still holding handfuls of ORIC and MDC in my trading account, but they're not really trading positions; MDC is paying me a great dividend and up 50%, ORIC has the three catalysts over the next 6-12 months for drug development and is also up 50% from where I initiated.
Ditched some common shares of AAPL in a long term account that were still profitable, but seeing it cut through its 50 day moving average like a hot knife through butter on its earnings report makes me want to book the gain and see how things shake out. MSFT is looking a bit better, but still just farting around its 50 day and overall looking fairly weak. I have some common shares on MSFT in the long term account and have set a sell stop below the recent low of $325.95. Similarly with BOTZ, I've already been stopped out of my leveraged trade there, but have a handful of common in the long-term account, which I have set a stop just below the day's low of $$27.50.
We are still at trendline support here on the S&P, and the Nasdaq is just grinding sideways. But there has been a definitive shift in momentum and I don't want to be trying to force trades that aren't really setting up the way I prefer them to. I also don't want to give back too many of my gains just because I have really nice profit cushions. Historically, I have had a tendency to trade out of boredom, and typically it's a lot of spinning my wheels for minimal gain or even taking a handful of tiny losses (that end up adding up to a not so tiny loss once the market has finished consolidating).
It's always worth asking yourself... is this a market that I'm comfortable with? Are the setups in line with how I prefer to trade? Or am I just reaching and trying to force positions that aren't really fitting into my ideal style? Most importantly, do I want to spend my precious time staring down charts when the market isn't throwing out money, or would I rather hang out with friends/family, play the guitar, go for a hike, do some maintenance around the house, whatever the case may be.
Your time is your most valuable asset, don't squander it!
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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ManianFH
living in perverty



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28421948 - 08/05/23 02:32 PM (5 months, 20 days ago) |
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Well said man!! I’ve been living in similar fashion these last two weeks, keeping away from any position for the most part, and now almost completely. Have really been too busy to really worry about it, and having that mental energy available for more important things has been very helpful 
Would need to see some big moves to feel compelled to get back in next week, otherwise might just be another stretch on the sidelines.
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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Hartford
Lawful Good



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28423524 - 08/06/23 07:52 PM (5 months, 19 days ago) |
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I think Tupperware TUP is a good stock to load up on now. Hopefully they will crank out lots of cheap food storage containers on the cheap for low income people with all this migrant labor and demand for household goods.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Hartford]
#28424173 - 08/07/23 11:15 AM (5 months, 19 days ago) |
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TUP is up over 700% in three weeks time. For the nimble day trader, one can surely scalp some on this one, but TUP is more or less a "meme" stock at this point. Fundamentally, there is nothing proprietary about what they do that would give them the upper hand in the marketplace. Your thesis of low income demand doesn't seem logical to me, given that there are cheaper alternatives to brand name Tupperware, which would be preferable for someone looking for low budget storage solutions. TUP is an old world manufacturer, and its steady slide from $97.14 in December of 2013 down to $0.61 a few weeks ago (a 99.4% decline), corroborates this fact.
META and GOOGL still holding their 8 day EMA's with properly "stacked" moving averages. MDC also climbing steadily and paying a solid dividend. Overall, the market seems to be tired and likely needs to fart around a bit here to strengthen support before continuing higher. It's been months since the S&P has tagged its 50 day moving average, seems about time to let that happen.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Hartford
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28424500 - 08/07/23 04:05 PM (5 months, 18 days ago) |
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Made money on TUP then bought a bunch of NKTR stock. It seems like NKTR will blast off in a similar fashion, due to the fact that eczema and psoriasis are very common conditions with no cure. This drug will definitely be highly sought after.
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Hartford
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28427251 - 08/09/23 02:37 PM (5 months, 16 days ago) |
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I ended up losing almost all my gains from TUP on NKTR. The market really is out to suck retail investors dry.
It's as if you need think about what is most rational and do the opposite to make money.
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ManianFH
living in perverty



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Hartford] 1
#28429522 - 08/11/23 08:42 AM (5 months, 15 days ago) |
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Ahh the George Castanza approach. Whatever your gut is telling you, do the opposite
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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extreme


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#28433201 - 08/14/23 05:36 AM (5 months, 12 days ago) |
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Dunno how you guys feel about UPS stock, but if anyone wants to invest and split the diff of winnings with me (or not lol) feel free! The contract is finalized and there won't be a strike, but we still need to vote on it. It'll probably pass, but there are just a couple things in there that make it not seem like a better deal, although for the most part, it is.
A lot of businesses might've gone to fedex or others over the past couple months, but once things get solidified soon, they'll come back because they know UPS is the best at what they do. Volume has already been going up over the past couple weeks.
I don't know much about investing, and I find it incredibly boring, but just some very slight inside information... I'd anticipate it to go up. But this is from the perspective of someone that works there and talks to people that know what they're talking about, and not from the perspective of someone that thinks much about investing (although I probably should... is Robinhood still a good and easy app for noobs like me?). Anyway, just off vibes and shit, I'd expect it to go back up. Just trying to help out.
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Hartford
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28435221 - 08/15/23 05:37 PM (5 months, 10 days ago) |
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Could you please explain why the deal will make them more profitable as a company?
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Hartford] 2
#28435234 - 08/15/23 05:57 PM (5 months, 10 days ago) |
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I think it's more to do with the idea that the deal will prevent further erosion of shipping commitments, thereby repairing cash-flow. Since UPS has been a bit beaten down, it could be a play on short-term recovery / reversion to the norm. Not my choice of investment though. This tape (i.e. the market in aggregate) is garbage in my view, and I haven't been trading since I went flat some time ago. Yes, it's possible to make money in any market, just as it's technically possible to swim upstream... but the payoff for the amount of work required simply isn't worth it, and you're at real risk of drowning if you try to push it too hard.
Wait for the market to get easier... it always eventually does. Knowing when NOT to trade is an integral component of trading well.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28435622 - 08/15/23 11:44 PM (5 months, 10 days ago) |
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Same. I’ve been very hands off, although have held small portions of some lithium, AI etfs. Even those have been poor performers lately, to say the least. It would have been better to be all cash the last two weeks, but at least losses have been rather minimal.
Work has been busy so sometimes just gotta give attention to what demands it, and right now, at least for me that is not the stock market
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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Baby_Hitler
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#28435697 - 08/16/23 05:34 AM (5 months, 10 days ago) |
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The only thing I've picked up this month are some IONQ and CAVA common stock and they're both doing well.
-------------------- Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ (•_•) <) )~ ANTIFA / \ \(•_•) ( (> SUPER / \ (•_•) <) )> SOLDIERS / \
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28436895 - 08/17/23 08:39 AM (5 months, 9 days ago) |
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I have a little bit of extra time on my morning, and happened to see TSLA, still under heavy distribution mind you, test its 200 day EMA and have a very high volume first hour bounce. It's still above VWAP now, while most of the market is not. This would definitely be considered swimming upstream, but I'm going to take a shot at it with a stop at the low of day just to see if we can't get a little throwback-kicker to TSLA's 8 day EMA @ around $235 ($11 or ~5% above the current price). I'm not particularly optimistic it'll make it that far, but I will keep a trailing stop on it and let myself get taken out accordingly.
Just a little taste to see what happens, helps keep me tuned in a bit more to the pulse of the market when I have a little skin in the game.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28437497 - 08/17/23 07:01 PM (5 months, 8 days ago) |
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Trailed my TSLA stop up to VWAP on the 8am (pacific) test, and got stopped out in the next 15 minutes for a manageable loss. That's OK, considering the stock finished meaningfully lower, and the entire market indeed dragged down right into the close. Selling is heavier than I would have expected, which makes me want to start paying closer attention for potential capitulation with short term throwbacks, but this action does not give me any confidence in any type of longer term swings. This is solid distribution, no ifs/ands/buts. Nimble traders may be able to fire off a few scalps, but the action has been just pitiful for the past few weeks, and anyone paying attention should have circled the wagons and raised cash quite some time ago.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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