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Offlinedyel
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
    #28398562 - 07/17/23 10:20 AM (6 months, 9 days ago)

very interesting thread, I'm currently thinking about dipping my toes in the stock market
mostly looking to build a protfolio slowly over the next years
are things like s&p 500  and vanguard a good place to start?


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: dyel] * 1
    #28398568 - 07/17/23 10:28 AM (6 months, 9 days ago)

Vanguard funds are fine, the S&P 500 is definitely my go to placeholder for diversified market exposure, since it is the benchmark by which the vast majority of money mangers judge their performance, but I would opt for the low fee highly liquid ETF version if it is available to you, ticker SPY (you can get a little more juice with the leveraged SSO and even more with SPXL, if that's your thing).

In other news, I'm tightening up my stop on SHOP to VWAP.  It bounced a bit at the open after retracing most of last Thursday's breakout which is where I put the position on, with an initial stop at the Thursday low.  Needs to start working now or I'm out.

Added some NET today, which incidentally is a company the Shroomery has used to protect our website and optimize content delivery for many years.  It's been basing right above its 200 day for a while and all the moving averages are fairly tightly coiled together.  I like breakouts from tightly coiled moving averages, as they tend to move a lot more than breakouts from high bases or the doldrums.  To be a proper breakout, it needs to close above $72, so I am taking the nibble here a little bit early, and have left room to add to this on a move through and/or close above $72.  Stop right below $66 (just a nudge below today's low of the day).

PLTR launched off its 8 day EMA today.  AAPL, MNDY, MSFT, BOTZ and ORIC still catching my eye, although I only have positions in the later two at the moment.  I would probably buy some MSFT today, but earnings are right around the corner on the 25th and I never like to have major exposure over an earnings report.  Might pick up a single call that's 3 months out, because I do like the MSFT story longer term, but I'm not quite there yet.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28398678 - 07/17/23 11:51 AM (6 months, 9 days ago)

Stops up again on SHOP to $68.98.  I have short dated options on this position expiring Friday, otherwise I would just keep the stop at the low of the day.  But when time is of the essence, you can't give it a long leash and quite frankly, I shouldn't be in such short dated options on this one.  With the stock currently at $69.35, I suspect I won't be for long.

Picked up some weekly $460 calls on NVDA on the move through VWAP 15 minutes ago.  So far so good, initial stop just below the 15 minute candle that pushed through VWAP at $456.66.  One could rightfully ask me, "what's so different about taking a weekly on NVDA here vs SHOP?"... and the truth is, not too much, except that NVDA held yesterday's low and has been climbing higher on increasing volume over the past 45 minutes, whereas SHOP broke below yesterday's lows and has been pulling back for the last hour.  Further, NVDA is a hot money trade, so as long as it remains in trend and shows signals of strength, it can be good vehicle for nimble traders to take a quick scalp.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28398694 - 07/17/23 12:10 PM (6 months, 8 days ago)

thank you that was a lot to take in, guess I have a lot of homework to do


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: dyel]
    #28398866 - 07/17/23 02:25 PM (6 months, 8 days ago)

There is no de facto right vs wrong way to invest in stocks... well, aside from the ultimate arbiter of "are you profiting or bleeding out?" :tongue2:

What you need to figure out is which type of strategy you can best wrap your head around and execute with consistency.  The biggest obstacle to reliably making money in the market is falling prey to your own emotional reactions.  If you can operate in a ruthlessly analytical and consistent way, the market can be an excellent way to grow your wealth.  On top of that, how you approach the market will depend on the interplay between how much time you want to put into it, in addition to how much risk you are willing to stomach.  There's no shame in just buying the SPY and letting it ride.  You'll beat most active money managers over the longer term this way, anyway, and you won't have to stress about fiddling with your positions or managing stops!

NVDA and NET calls up 25% and 7% respectively, holding both overnight.  Stopped out of SHOP.

AAPL with a really nice close just below its all time high.  Look at the weekly chart on that thing, it's an absolute beauty, just slow and steady climbing higher.  Feeling a little dumb for not having just held this monster.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28399599 - 07/18/23 10:36 AM (6 months, 8 days ago)

Got pretty good size on these NVDA calls, the morning gap and crap was a bit concerning, so I tightened up my stop to the "morning rotational low" (i.e. the bottom of the first 15 minute candle), which almost got hit later on, but ultimately held and now the position is up better than 80%.  Risk management is for real, as is the leverage of an options contract!  I was either going to call it a manageable ~10% loss if the morning lows were taken out, but in providing that little bit of wiggle room, the stock ultimately found its footing after the volatile morning gyrations and is now continuing to expand out of its volatility squeeze.

I added a little bit to NET today, as it is holding fairly firm above its 2nd standard deviation bollinger band, and so long as the market continues to stay strong, this one should continue to expand markedly, given that all of its moving averages are squeezing near the current price.  Would like to see volume pick up a bit and I might add a few more August $70 calls to the pot.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28399743 - 07/18/23 12:53 PM (6 months, 7 days ago)

Took 1/3 of my NVDA calls off for a +100% gain in two days. :rockon:

1/3 position stop at $473.47 and asking for +150% on the last 1/3 (new stop will be set at the morning rotational low tomorrow on either tranche if it does not trigger today or at the open tomorrow).  As noted when I put the position on, these are weekly $460's, so they're rather expensive now and subject to extreme volatility as the contracts expire in 3 days.  Gotta play this sort of position very close to the vest.


NET so far setting up for a fine close near the top of its daily range and above last month's consolidation / epic squeeze zone.  Calls are up better than 15% so far.  Hoping to see volume coming in for a strong close that will push the daily volume higher than average, which will give me much more confidence in a sustainable move higher.

My two primary trading accounts are up 9% & 10% on the day.  Now that's good stuff! :yesnod:


Edit: Stops on 1/3 NVDA calls up to $476.11 and got hit 23 minutes to the close.  Would prefer to only hold 1/3 of the position overnight so I was really trailing that stop up tightly.  That booked a +92% gain on the second third that's locked in.


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Edited by geokills (07/18/23 01:38 PM)


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28399916 - 07/18/23 03:45 PM (6 months, 7 days ago)

is it normal for NVDA to keep mooning forever? I get the demand with crypto mining and ai stuff requiring gpus but that chart looks insane


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: dyel]
    #28400109 - 07/18/23 07:54 PM (6 months, 7 days ago)

Of course NVDA won't go up forever.  Nothing does.  But get it while it's good!  Generally speaking, the charts that are the hardest to buy (e.g. "look insane") are precisely the stocks you want to take advantage of for a momentum trade.


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OnlinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28400609 - 07/19/23 11:09 AM (6 months, 7 days ago)

Market lost a bit of its momentum in the early innings today.  If you've made some good scratch on this run, this is probably not a bad spot to take at some profits.  I'm out of all short-term trading positions, although still holding NET/ORIC/BOTZ in my trading account for medium term allocations (anywhere from 1-12 months).  Also realized that I do in fact have some AAPL and MSFT common that I had parked in a smaller, common stock/long-term only account that I rarely check, so that's nice!

Market is still in trend, but it's been going up pretty fiercely and we'll probably see a rate hike next week, so not a bad idea to circle the wagons here, insofar as active traders may be concerned.  Use stops though and don't just blindly jettison everything!  You want to remain involved for as long as the trends on your positions remain intact... but sell a bit on the rips, and buy a bit on the dips, if you can!


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28401560 - 07/20/23 08:31 AM (6 months, 6 days ago)

Pretty heavy selling to start the day here.  Stopped out of NET.  Actually bought a handful of SPY $455 puts (with a trailing stop), as I'd expect us to close down 1% or more today just based on how extended we've been and how broad the selling has been so far this morning.


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OnlinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28401825 - 07/20/23 02:27 PM (6 months, 5 days ago)

Whoops... life got in the way on that SPY put trade.  Had my stop a little too tight and got clipped on the midday attempt to retake VWAP (that ultimately failed).  I had left to go paddleboarding with my kiddo in the Ventura harbor, sheesh... got hit on my longs early, then got hit on the puts that ultimately moved in the direction I had anticipated but my stop took me out before than happened.  Ah well, market needs to settle out a bit here.  Don't expect there will be much to do except preserving capital until after the Fed meeting.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28402357 - 07/20/23 11:29 PM (6 months, 5 days ago)

Agreed with the above sentiment. I jumped back in just a bit too early this week well knowing what lay ahead and finally took a smack on the chin. Was a timid position primarily composed of ETFs (BOTZ,LIT,KARS) and really nothing to cry over, though I would have likely trimmed positions if not for being stuck at a work event the entire day.

That might be the plan tomorrow, then a wait and see for next week.


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
    #28403681 - 07/22/23 09:10 AM (6 months, 4 days ago)

Welp darn, I totally missed the trading session yesterday due to work, kids summer camps, etc..

Not having the opportunity to buy any dips was likely a good thing, as I anticipate a mixed market response (at best) to the fed meeting next week. Perhaps if the bit of a downward trend were seeing continues throughout next week, I will plan some entries back into TSLA and NVDA, specifically, as well as strengthen some of my long term positions in lithium and AI sectors.


Cant check right now (phone isnt nearby, and I have two factor authentication on just about everything) but I believe at this time am about 65-70% cash, and suppose theres worse places to be right now.


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
    #28409685 - 07/26/23 10:48 PM (5 months, 30 days ago)

What are you all thinking about Mattel, Inc (Ticker: MAT) right now?  Is the Barbie movie going to cause people to buy much Barbie & Ken merchandise between now and Christmas?  Will it be the #1 costumes for Halloween?  I know girls 30 and younger who have gone to the movie.  Or is this the high for the stock and we are seeing a flash in the frying pan?


Edited by encryptor (07/26/23 10:50 PM)


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: encryptor]
    #28410282 - 07/27/23 11:45 AM (5 months, 30 days ago)

Pretty nasty "tombstone topping doji" forming on its earnings print today.  Ran up big at the open, and has since given it all back.  That's a big time rejection signal, especially for a stock that has already been running for the past month.

Market overall lookin' tired today.  I haven't been trading this week, as I just didn't want to jump in front of the Fed, and the lackluster close after the Fed announcement yesterday wasn't very exciting.  Further, the gap and crap this morning is definitely not inspiring.

GOOGL and NVDA looking the strongest out of all the regulars I watch, but I'm just not in the mood to add exposure given how long the market has been climbing and thinking about "who is behind me".  The fact that the market has been in "extreme greed" mode for quite some time is indicative of how well it has been performing overall, but also a caution flag that at least some measure of pullback is likely on the horizon.  That doesn't mean we crash, but we should cool off for a bit.

MSFT down here at its 50 day after its earnings report is worth watching for a bounce, although not actionable right here right now.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28411514 - 07/28/23 10:39 AM (5 months, 29 days ago)

Market still feels a bit whippy and disorganized (I very much dislike gap opens), yet one must concede that it stubbornly remains in trend.  It's Friday so I don't want to get too crazy, but I got to respect the price action, and since we have markedly stabilized after yesterday's bleed out into a very nasty close, this tells me that there is still an appetite for accumulation under the hood, and support is being bought.

Thus, I have put on some placeholder positions in MSFT and META via September $335 and $320 calls, respectively.  I'm also juicing the MSFT trade a bit with some $340 options that expire at the close today.  Although this would appear to be a terribly risky play, the fact that the $340's still just out of the money and are trading well below a buck, means that I can go pretty big on the position, and in conjunction with keeping a tight trailing stop, minimize my risk.  Even if the position were to expire worthless (and it won't due to that trailing stop), I am risking well under 1% of my portfolio on the trade.  It appears to me that MSFT could test $341.50 today (where it gap opened on its earnings wallop a couple of days ago), which gives me a pretty solid 1 to 4 risk:reward ratio.  I don't have huge hopes for this trade to be honest, but it appears to be an opportunity with minimal absolute risk, so I figured to dip my toe in the water.

I do still feel like the market is due to at least rest a bit, if not pull back marginally, in the near future, and this is why I only bought a single Sept call on both MSFT and META as placeholders.  I like seeing MSFT retake its 50 day right after its quick break on earnings (which importantly also held above its last intermediate term low of $327).  And META has just been strong as death, with the upside gap and crap on yesterday's positive earnings, that has today pushed up to a higher high.  I left plenty of room to add to these if we do eventually see a more meaningful "pullback bounce" situation manifest.  Just wanted to have the base positions in play so that I can more closely track them.

Edit: Stopped outta the same day MSFT options for a 50% loss.  Too bad, so sad.


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Edited by geokills (07/28/23 11:01 AM)


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28411813 - 07/28/23 04:17 PM (5 months, 28 days ago)

Trading Places logic..


Kroger had a merger.

People are scared shitless for cartel formation driving up prices.

Kroger stock drops now

Kroger realizes they need top win back the consumer and will lower prices.

The people buy that for a dollar.

Kroger stock rises

???

Profit!


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Asante]
    #28413327 - 07/29/23 10:08 PM (5 months, 27 days ago)

If this room temperature superconductor thing turns out to be legit, what stocks would go boom?


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Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ
(•_•)
<) )~  ANTIFA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #28416459 - 08/01/23 04:21 PM (5 months, 24 days ago)

Nvidia for sure.  Hope y'all had some Elf shares!  It's a winner in the beauty department at Walmart!


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