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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Wizard_Shames] 1
#28361761 - 06/16/23 06:43 AM (7 months, 9 days ago) |
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Wizard_Shames said: What’s a good stock to invest in ?
I'm not dogmatic with regard to which stocks to own. I just follow the tape to recognize patterns that work for me and my time frame. I was pretty confident in BOTZ a few months ago, and I think it probably still has a lot of juice left in it, but on shorter term time frames, it is getting extended. One of the stocks encryptor mentioned above - PLTR - which I haven't spoken about in a while since its post IPO run fall from grace in 2021, is probably a good one now, fundamentally and technically speaking, as they are in the business of data, which ties in well to broader technological shifts, particularly the AI craze we're on the cusp of. NVDA is the current dominant arms dealer for AI at the moment, but their stock price is reflecting that, so be careful entering as it is also short term extended. In fact, the entire market is short term extended. MNDY is a relatively new company that Dan Fitz @ SMM brought to my attention, no debt, solid earnings growth, low share float. It could work as well for someone seeking a relatively under the radar buy and hold type position. Just be willing to face some volatility there, as the thing does whip around a bit.
If you don't want to pick stocks, just pick an ETF. The SPY is great for keeping up with the market, because it is the market. QQQ's for tech, but both of these are looking like they need a near term pullback. MDY and IWM look a bit better with regard to "just getting started" after a long base... but their movement will depend a lot on the interest rate path going forward.
In summary, don't put a lot of faith on someone else's stock picks. Everyone has a unique trading style, and a stock that makes one trader money, might lose money for someone else, depending on how they approach it, their patience and risk tolerance. If you want to develop yourself as an active trader, you just have to jump into the market, simulate trades for a while, and find out what kind of trading works for you. There is no magic bullet, and active trading is difficult. No shame in buying the SPY to get solid market exposure.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#28361778 - 06/16/23 06:58 AM (7 months, 9 days ago) |
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ManianFH said: Must admit I got off the wave too early and am trying to convince myself it’s not a big deal.
This is almost always an issue every trader must confront. It's very easy to beat yourself up for your losers, and unfortunately, just as easy to beat yourself up for your winners, because you sold out too soon or didn't go in big enough. One of the biggest problems with being human, we often expect ourselves to achieve some unreasonable level of perfection, and actively find reasons to doubt ourselves or sow regret surrounding our past actions. Recognize this fundamental flaw in our mental construct and accept that you will never catch all of the move. Taking a good chunk out of "the middle" of a move is really the best thing a disciplined trader can hope to do.
I was dealing with similar feelings yesterday in fact... with regard to that MSFT weekly option trade I put on at the open and sold half of within ~10 minutes for a 60% gain. I kept the trailing stop on the remaining half very tight and ended up stopped out on the second half for +40% or so. Not bad right? Of course not! But as the day ground on, MSFT wouldn't let up and ran way farther than I thought it would (being its 6th day moving higher... I subscribe generally to the "three day rule" where I find short term moves to be stale and at risk of reversal or pausing after three days, let alone six!). Point being, despite the trade being wildly profitable by most conventional metrics, I was faced with the reality that the weekly options I sold at around $3 closed the day north of $8, or 200% higher than my average exit and fully 300% higher than my entry! So my ~50% gain could have been six times higher if I'd just kept my stop at the low of the day and let it work.
But that's the trouble with hindsight. It is important to look back and see where you might have improved your results, but it's equally important not to get caught up in flogging yourself mentally for missing something. When you let that negative focus creep into your conscious space, you will leave yourself at a heightened risk of making more mistakes. At least, that's how it works in my brain.
New day, new opportunity. Manage risk. It really doesn't matter how much money you MAKE, what matters most is that you don't LOSE much. The math will work against you, as a 50% loss requires you to make a 100% gain on the next trade just to break even. Don't let that happen. Control your downside, and the upside will eventually take care of itself.
PS. Monday is a bank holiday and markets will be closed. There is also what is known as "quadruple witching" today, which happens four times a year when single stock futures, stock index futures, stock index options, and single stock options all expire on the same day. This can lead to some higher than usual volatility today, especially near the close.
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28362384 - 06/16/23 05:22 PM (7 months, 8 days ago) |
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Wise words Sir Geo!! I think psychology might be one of the most important aspects of trading that one needs to master. Being aware of emotions when trading really helps limit knee jerk trade reactions, and then more regerts later. Being from the field of psychology, I really quite enjoy working that stuff out haha... Anyways speaking of psychological games and to the trading.. I picked up some SPY today, as typically when the markets are doing well this will rise in turn also, so getting some exposure to small gains, but if the market is overextended and corrects I wont lose much holding anything in particular.
Not sure how much of a strategy that is but I feel much better having some skin in the game, and even taking a slight loss to buy other stocks at a discount at the right opportunity. Not sure if its a decent approach, but one I can live with. Might add to that stratey next week.
I am a bit excited to get a bit back into trading next week once things are back in action Tuesday. Have been working a lot, and trading has been a bit of a good distraction from all that noise.
Cheers everyone, have a great weekend.
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH] 2
#28364261 - 06/18/23 11:12 AM (7 months, 7 days ago) |
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When the market is trending higher, using the SPY for general market exposure is always a good idea. It's something I don't do often enough, but it makes good sense to remain exposed to the the broader market whenever it is generally marching higher, especially when you aren't able to find attractive entries on specific single stock issues, or if you simply don't have the time or desire to micromanage individual positions.
Understanding some basic fundamentals of human psychology is incredibly useful for active traders. Not only because you learn more about how to effectively manage your own biases or emotionally driven behaviors, but also because you begin to understand how crowd psychology (especially fear and greed) end up driving major moves and reversals in the market, and you can then use that knowledge to inform your balance between an aggressive or conservative positioning in your own portfolio.
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28367063 - 06/20/23 12:10 PM (7 months, 4 days ago) |
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Markets somewhat sideways, skewed to the downside today. I am tempted to grab a few shares of my regulars here but am going to wait.
Adding a bit more SPY.
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#28371054 - 06/23/23 08:05 AM (7 months, 2 days ago) |
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Seeing this morning as a good get back in opportunity. Maybe rexposure to all my normals (AI/Lithium/EV) at 30%
If the trend continues Monday will add more in increments of 15-20% allocation.
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#28371359 - 06/23/23 01:54 PM (7 months, 1 day ago) |
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Yeah, yesterday in particular looked pretty enticing and probably would have baited me into a few positions, but I was at the beach in Ventura so I wasn't trading, even as the bounces in names like MSFT and AAPL looked rather appetizing. Unfortunately we didn't see a lot of follow through today (META a notable exception), on account of a generally hawkish Fed outlook anticipating at least a couple more rate hikes in the not too distant future. AI and BOTZ are coming in fast and hard. Don't want to buy them into the freefall, but it would be worth keeping them on your radar for when they settle down and setup a base again. Likewise IWM and MDY (the small and midcap indexes) are pulling back into their 200 day MA's. It would be nice to see them hold this level and bounce in the coming week or two, as that would confirm a breakout from the months long base they just worked on carving out... but if the interest rate outlook continues to look bad, that's particularly hard for small and midcaps, who rely on cheap financing for growth.
I probably won't be very active for the next little while, as I'm heading to San Pancho Mexico on the 1st for 10 days, and prefer not to hold a bunch of trading positions when I know I'll be away from my desk. Given the market's ramp over the past few weeks, I hope I won't miss too much, and figure there are pretty good odds we just chop around a bit to digest the big move of the prior months.
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Baby_Hitler
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28376224 - 06/27/23 08:02 AM (6 months, 29 days ago) |
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You can actually still buy FRCB shares. I just bought 100 of them to go with the 9 that I still had from earlier that I lost 99% on. It's up 114% since June 14. If it goes up just another 1000%, I can get my money back!
-------------------- Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ (•_•) <) )~ ANTIFA / \ \(•_•) ( (> SUPER / \ (•_•) <) )> SOLDIERS / \
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
#28376371 - 06/27/23 10:25 AM (6 months, 29 days ago) |
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Now that's just silly.
ORIC on the other hand, is up above $8 and some +70% from where I put the position on. Although the upside targets on this one are generally somewhere around $15, which is roughly another double... it is prudent to habitually trim positions when they move very far very fast. ORIC's +30% move yesterday alone (on the heels of an $85 million capital infusion into the company, which indicates institutional sponsorship), qualifies for some prudent profit taking, and I have sold 25% of my position into the strength. I won't be too quick to sell all of it, as I want to wait for their three preliminary clinical study results on their cancer treatments, two of which are due before the year is out, and the third of which is expected in 2024. But I also, out of discipline, want to rebalance the position, as it has grown to become a considerably larger portion of my portfolio than when I first initiated it.
I did also put a small common stock position on in PLTR this morning. I've been wanting some exposure to this under the "AI umbrella" theme that's been so hot but has cooled off a bit over the last two weeks. PLTR came down about 20% from its recent highs, with declining volume over the past three days (it's always preferable to see pull backs on declining volume when trading a momentum name), and although I don't suspect it will just rocket higher from here, I figure this is a worthwhile entry to take a stab at, with a stop below $13.50 (this risks ~6% from my entry at $14.35 this morning).
MARA holding its breakout and walking up the 8 day EMA in sympathy with bitcoin and it's positive movements on account of the BlackRock bitcoin ETF filing (blackrock has an impeccable track record for ETF approval, something like 400 approved and 1 denied by the SEC).
The pullbacks here look pretty good for potential entries, so long as we stay in trend and see some bounces soon... but it's worth keeping in mind that traders are starting to anticipate a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting, as the Fed Chair said pretty clearly that he expects there to be a couple more hikes, and recent economic data has reduced impressions of an impending recession, which bolsters the Fed's ability to hike sooner. That could keep us in a sideways consolidation/chop range for the next month, so don't go gangbusters, but if you trade actively, be open to whatever the price action is telling you. If trend support levels are confirmed and you see bounces, don't be afraid to take them, just make sure you have your stops in place just below the bounce (as I'm doing with PLTR as indicated above).
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28376413 - 06/27/23 10:57 AM (6 months, 29 days ago) |
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Yeah, but it's a smol silly.
I also picked up a little bit of AI, PLTR, and BOTZ today.
I'm thinking quantum computing may be seeing some activity in the not too distant future, so I've been keeping an eye on IONQ. It's been doing a +/- 10-15% wobble for the last month or so after a big jump in May.
-------------------- Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ (•_•) <) )~ ANTIFA / \ \(•_•) ( (> SUPER / \ (•_•) <) )> SOLDIERS / \
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
#28376483 - 06/27/23 11:45 AM (6 months, 29 days ago) |
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I did put on a little MSFT today since it has retraced ~7% from its highs, retested yesterday's lows and is now moving to the high of the day. It is a market leader and remains in trend. Doing this with July $330 calls, hard stop at low of day, as my thesis is that this is the bounce and it therefore shouldn't go any lower. Although it doesn't look exceptionally strong today, the market in aggregate is looking pretty good with convincing strength through the morning session, and so I would suspect proven leadership such as MSFT to participate.
MSFT's AI dominance through their sizable investment in OpenAI (much of which circles right back to their coffers since OpenAI is using the funding to pay for cloud computing services... from MSFT!) has a lot of potential upside, with analysts proposing potential subscription revenue opportunities through their GitHub and Office 365 suite applications garnering up to $100 billion of fresh cash flow within the next few years. MSFT also has only ~3% of the search engine market through Bing, so their AI integration attempt on search could also have huge upside, with limited risk since search isn't a major driver for their business currently... but this means there is a tremendous amount of room to grow revenue there if their integration proves successful.
Everyone else is playing catch up now, and the fact that MSFT already has exceptionally successful products with deep market share (Office 365 + GitHub in particular), that can be integrated with OpenAI's generative AI for additional subscription revenue, it's just a beautiful thing for a company that had become a bit stale. There will be ebbs and flows, as always, but I think MSFT hitting a $3 trillion market cap is a high probability, which is another 20% of upside from here.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28377574 - 06/28/23 09:37 AM (6 months, 28 days ago) |
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Took a little intraday scalp on AI for +7% via common shares. Stopped out on a break of the 8 period EMA on the 5 min chart, could've re-entered on the bounce at VWAP a moment ago, but the 8 day EMA is right overhead (and the 20 day right above that) and because this is an exceptionally fast/hot money type of trade, I prefer not to re-enter after the primary trend is broken on my intended timeframe.
Moved my stop up on PLTR to $14.99, to make sure the position gets closed for at least a small profit. Shut down some of MSFT calls for a small gain and moved my stop up on the remainder to $334.19 (just under the hourly trend support), as I don't want to carry a ton of exposure when I leave the country Saturday morning. This has served me well enough for some short term scratch, pushing my portfolio up another 2.5% in aggregate so far today, with the major indexes more or less flat. I'll happily take that.
Seeing TSLA with a bounce off of its 20 day earlier this week, and now bouncing a bit at VWAP after re-taking its 8 day EMA this morning, has me taking a very short-term trade via some weekly $250 calls with a stop @ VWAP. This will be closed by the end of the day one way or another. Intraday this is behaving somewhat similarly to AI, however it should be more resilient as it has much greater institutional sponsorship and its price is above both the 8 day and 20 day MA's.
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28381311 - 07/01/23 11:31 AM (6 months, 25 days ago) |
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Yikes, have been working so much I pretty much forgot to adjust any of my positions. Pretty much half exposed to the normals but not for better or worse. Actually I guess it was a decent overall rally, but didn’t get the chance to accumulate slowly over the week.
Probably won’t be looking much next week either. Am on vacation in Morro Bay, CA. We found a pretty cool VRBO right on the beach, so it’s BBQ, waves, and fireworks till Wednesday 
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#28394214 - 07/13/23 08:14 AM (6 months, 13 days ago) |
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Back in the saddle and nice to see the market still hanging tough! Took some SHOP calls this morning, on its breakout from a "touch and go" volatility squeeze at its 50 day moving average. As it is now up and out of the last two month consolidation range, I figure $75 is a foregone conclusion and will aim for the quick scalp.
Also taking some PLTR common, as it has been squeezing for a month or so and is starting to poke out the top of the range (although still needs to close above $17.16 for a proper breakout call).
NVDA, MARA and META looking quite good too, no positions in those at the moment as I was to ease my way back into things.
BOTZ and ORIC still hanging tight near the top of their ranges as well, with the small and midcaps really having pushed higher this last week, and the Nasdaq & S&P also participating with new highs today. Let's see what happens...
Also, the San Pancho and Sayulita area of the Riveria Nayarit in Mexico is a very cool place!

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pslyke
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28394275 - 07/13/23 09:52 AM (6 months, 13 days ago) |
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Great pics
-------------------- "What appears impenetrable to us does exist, manifesting itself in the deepest wisdom and the most radiant beauty" Einstein "The conservatives of 70 years ago would be outraged at what has come to pass. It embodies everything they took up arms for to defeat"Asante
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: pslyke]
#28394447 - 07/13/23 01:50 PM (6 months, 12 days ago) |
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Thanks! 
Out of PLTR for a wash, wasn't going anywhere and looks to want to close below VWAP and below $17. Hourly trend is still intact, but it doesn't look attractive enough to hold overnight. Going to swing the SHOP calls overnight since volume is picking up, it's nicely above VWAP and near its daily highs going into the close and it is coming out of a pretty tight squeeze. Should've jumped in on MARA (and HUT) and NVDA this morning, but you just can't catch 'em all.
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28394856 - 07/13/23 10:36 PM (6 months, 12 days ago) |
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Haha super cool pics Geo, love those tacos, and credit to you for being adventurous... I might need a nudge or two to eat the octopus taco . Quick aside before getting into stonks, we had a bit of a travel bug lately as well. After Morro Bay we spent 3 days in Palm Desert, so going from 65f to 117f weather in a matter of days. I got the outdoor experience of both worlds . But along the adventure picked up a bottle of this hotsauce which is absolutely incredible.

Im not encouraging anyone go to spend $9/bottle for it, admittedly thats a bit pricey even for an enthusiast like me (I found a store selling it for $8 in Morro), but if you come across it and are in the mood you wont regret it .
Onto the markets - I actually exited all of my positions except PCRFY after the rally this week. I want to see the response tomorrow and even potentially Monday before consideration for re-entry. I was only half exposed in total, hoping to have had a better entry for the rest of my capital, but will take the W in what has been a fantastic week regardless. Will be eyeing the usuals eventually: (TSLA, NVDA, MCFT, BOTZ, LIT, KARS). Sadly I totally missed the MARA train, even though its on a medium sized list of stocks I check every morning (for the past 2 years or so ), so good on anyone who is riding down those tracks.
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
Edited by ManianFH (07/13/23 10:57 PM)
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH] 1
#28396574 - 07/15/23 02:17 PM (6 months, 10 days ago) |
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I do love me a quality hot sauce!
Had some epic fresh salsas that were sold in little plastic cups at the bodegas in San Pancho; a smokey roasted red one, a green cilantro tomatillo one, a habanero molcajete style... all quite hot and very delicious, and all left sitting out on the shelf at ambient temps (~85 degrees) for who knows how long (maybe that's why I was blasting ass half the time ).
Anywho, I know octopus looks little freaky, but when prepared properly, it is an absolutely amazing seafood. There are the unfortunate times when you'll find rubbery chewy octopus that just isn't very good, but if you find yourself in seaside locales that specialize in them, do yourself a favor and try some. I really fell in love with the stuff when I travelled to Greece nearly a decade ago. It would be common to stroll along the water fronts and see lines of the little guys coming off the boats, or the fishermen slapping the shit out of them and hanging them out to, well, I'm not sure why they did it, but it seemed to be common practice, and the octopus I enjoyed in that country was uncommonly delicious!

The coastal zone of the Riviera Nayarit in Mexico was no exception with regard to this tentacled treat, and I enjoyed stupid amounts of extremely tender and juicy 'pus in various forums, including these very fine handmade sopes from the restaurant Barracuda in San Pancho, which was definitely one of the best eateries in town.
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gopher
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH] 1
#28396579 - 07/15/23 02:19 PM (6 months, 10 days ago) |
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Quote:
ManianFH said: Haha super cool pics Geo, love those tacos, and credit to you for being adventurous... I might need a nudge or two to eat the octopus taco . Quick aside before getting into stonks, we had a bit of a travel bug lately as well. After Morro Bay we spent 3 days in Palm Desert, so going from 65f to 117f weather in a matter of days. I got the outdoor experience of both worlds . But along the adventure picked up a bottle of this hotsauce which is absolutely incredible.

Im not encouraging anyone go to spend $9/bottle for it, admittedly thats a bit pricey even for an enthusiast like me (I found a store selling it for $8 in Morro), but if you come across it and are in the mood you wont regret it .
Onto the markets - I actually exited all of my positions except PCRFY after the rally this week. I want to see the response tomorrow and even potentially Monday before consideration for re-entry. I was only half exposed in total, hoping to have had a better entry for the rest of my capital, but will take the W in what has been a fantastic week regardless. Will be eyeing the usuals eventually: (TSLA, NVDA, MCFT, BOTZ, LIT, KARS). Sadly I totally missed the MARA train, even though its on a medium sized list of stocks I check every morning (for the past 2 years or so ), so good on anyone who is riding down those tracks.
I think monkey spit is how you get aids
-------------------- For most of the normies out there, an operating system is just a bootloader for Google Chrome. Since Disney has obtained tremendous value from the public domain, knows how important the public domain is, and is firmly determined to never contribute anything to it. My pronouns are He and Him, and my adjectives are Fat and Jazzy
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Enkidu
"No-Such-Person"


Registered: 07/09/16
Posts: 10,698
Last seen: 6 months, 10 days
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: gopher] 1
#28396900 - 07/15/23 09:01 PM (6 months, 10 days ago) |
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Took a break from trading for a bit and started easing back in few weeks ago. Came up a bit off $30
Looking for dxy to pump, gold to get support and continue a move up,
Then looking for puts on mara and nvda if markets start tumbling a bit

-------------------- Within You , Without You
      
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