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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: gopher] 1
#28356994 - 06/12/23 11:52 AM (7 months, 13 days ago) |
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I cant speak for the stock VRGO - but in answer to your question about investing in stocks for retirement - The whole world has been on its way to crashing and burning as long as the markets have been open, and just about every year they still manage to develop growth. There have only been a handful of truly down years for markets in aggregate, so the safest bet is actually assuming that this trend will continue.
I think the no brainer is that you should be investing your money. The more difficult decision is what do you put your money in, based on your growth goals. The safest play would be funds/etfs. If you are looking for aggressive growth, find a stock you believe in and hold it individually. Or a mix of both. It depends on how much time you want to spend thinking about this stuff. There is nothing wrong with set it and forget it though, just find a few funds/etfs that offer decent diversification across sectors like tech, energy, international shit, real estate, and commit to add X amount to each of them every year until 30 years has passed.
At the end of it, youll have quite a bit of money (and people will still be saying the big crash is coming ).
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH] 1
#28357092 - 06/12/23 01:16 PM (7 months, 12 days ago) |
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And if your retirement account allows you to self-direct your investments into a broad spectrum of instruments but you don't want to pick and choose individual stocks, forget mutual funds and take a practically zero fee ETF like the SPY and QQQ. They are highly liquid and cheaper to hold. If you want extra juice, you can rock 2X leverage via the SSO and QLD. There are 3X options as well, but I wouldn't use those outside of very short-term momentum trades.
Congrats on TSLA mick! I totally missed that one. I've been watching it, but just couldn't find an entry. Considered it on the itsy bitsy pullback around $180 but figured the 200 day overhead would cap the upside. I was obviously very wrong about that! 
But my strategies are working pretty well all the same. BOTZ to a fresh 52 week high today. Those weekly calls on MSFT and AAPL I put on this morning 70% and 40% respectively. Not bad for putting the trades on with stops in place, then running to Costco with my kiddo who's out of school for the summer.

Despite my words of caution above regarding smart/dumb money and low VIX indicators, I do want to be clear that I'm not advocating just bailing out of the market. We broke through some key levels and the increasing breadth is very encouraging. This is the type of thing that can potentially create a positive feedback loop, something we haven't seen for the entirety of the past year, as sidelined money continues to pile in for fear of being left behind. Just manage those stops, stagger a few at varying levels, and let the market take you out when it's time.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28358071 - 06/13/23 08:06 AM (7 months, 12 days ago) |
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Bit whippy in the early goings this morning, as the market gapped higher on CPI data, which came in slightly below average expectations, thereby boosting the expectation that the Fed may hold off on another rate hike for the time being. The market is getting more extended, so it's getting increasingly hard to buy into now, but you do want some exposure, especially if we get a little pullback bounce to ~4200 on the S&P.
I've taken profits in my weekly MSFT calls and still have my AAPL weekly calls riding with a stop at the morning low (also have a single July call on each stock as a steadfast placeholder since these stalwarts have been leading the market). Watching AI here for a move above $38.50 as it's been basing for a couple of weeks as the 20 day moving average catches up to price. Could potentially see a nice pop there if it moves above that level.
Speaking of nice pops, U is getting a lot of pin action off of AAPL's Vision Pro headset headlines. I picked some up this morning as it started to move out of its sideways channel from the initial pop during AAPL's WWDC announcement last week. Got in around $37.50 and we're already up to over $39. Playing with straight common shares here because I didn't like the liquidity or the premiums via options. Initial stop at the morning lows, will stagger a stop below VWAP as we continue to move higher.
BOTZ making its way to the midpoint of its ascending channel. I have an ask out to unload another tranche of my original position some 3% higher (which would book a better than 200% gain on the Sept $24 calls I'm holding).
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28358127 - 06/13/23 09:05 AM (7 months, 12 days ago) |
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AI, new high of day, pushing out of its sideways range. This one gets frisky real fast. Stop at low of day.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28358138 - 06/13/23 09:13 AM (7 months, 12 days ago) |
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If ya can't beat 'em, join 'em... AI poppin' on volume, stop up to breakeven. NVDA to new highs on the day and looking to move higher out of its post-earnings consolidation range. Picked up a single July $400 call to get myself involved again.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28358278 - 06/13/23 10:56 AM (7 months, 12 days ago) |
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Took 3/4 of my AI common off for +14% on the day. This thing probably has room to $50 pretty easily, but I am still mindful that the market is in greed mode and I had a very tight trailing stop that ended up getting hit. I also exited 2/3 of my U common for +5% or so earlier today, with a trailing stop at +1 on the remainder. I did put back on a couple of weekly MSFT calls, as this one came in off the open and has since pushed back above VWAP.
With some pretty massive profits booked on these short term trades, I will probably swing the remaining small positions overnight, so long as the market close stays strong. My primary accounts are up about 7% in aggregate today, which is pretty awesome considering the S&P and Nasdaq are up less than 1%.
Year to date, I am up a remarkable +73%, definitely one of my best streaks after a solid two decades in the game.
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28358335 - 06/13/23 11:44 AM (7 months, 12 days ago) |
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Man Awesome Geo!!
You were spot on with AI - unfortunately I missed entry (should have bought in last week when the name was standing out).. hard to complain though in markets like we’re seeing right now.
More or less unchanged in my positions, letting them ride, but not really adding the 40% cash I still have - hindsight 20/20 this would’ve all been put to work months ago..
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#28358399 - 06/13/23 12:46 PM (7 months, 11 days ago) |
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Out of the MSFT weeklies, out of U. Market softening a bit as we get near the last hour of the day, although still in trend. Greed/optimism levels are still quite high. Fed on deck later in the week. Don't want a lot of overnight exposure.
I know I said I wasn't going to trade around ORIC actively (and I'm not), but wanted to nevertheless give a nod to the nice volume spikes over the past two weeks and the fact that it's up around 20% from my entries between $5.05-$5.15.
If things get increasingly ugly into the close, I'll consider ditching the remainder of my AI common at a profit. Still above VWAP at the moment, and the move today to a new 52 week high on good volume is encouraging, so long as we close in the upper half of its daily range.
NVDA just re-tested $400, and so far bounced on pretty good volume and is back above VWAP. I did pick up a second call there, but may trim that back to a single call if the market gets nasty into the close. Looking at the overall dynamics of NVDA specifically, it is such a clear market leader and is the arms dealer for the hottest sector out there. The fact that it hasn't given up any meaningful gains since its blast off on earnings is indicative that no one really wants to aggressively sell this thing, and any supply is being consistently met by willing buyers willing to soak it up. In my view, the little curling up on the 8 day EMA with increasing volume bodes very well for this to continue to move higher up out of its current range. Trying to remind myself that this one isn't so much a day trading vehicle as it is a leader worthy of holding... but it does get me a little jittery as I typically trade options and a $400 stock that whips around at all can create some huge swings in position value. Looking to add on a move above $420, and intend to hold my current position so long as we close above $400.
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28358424 - 06/13/23 01:07 PM (7 months, 11 days ago) |
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I exited a large portion of my holdings, outside of BOTZ (halved), as the market turned (I just noticed my TD account balance was getting lower).
Incredible run and I am not afraid to miss out on a bit more if wrong that the market might be turning, can always reposition again this week
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#28359324 - 06/14/23 08:37 AM (7 months, 11 days ago) |
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NVDA taking another little dip at the open to test yesterday's VWAP ~$405, then bouncing in short order and printing higher highs on the day ever since. Glad I added the exposure there yesterday, as it's been carrying the bulk of my continued gains for today with my position up ~30% in aggregate. I did double my small placeholder positions in MSFT and AAPL near the open today. These positions are still much smaller than my typical momentum trades using weekly options, but they continue to remain in trend and grind higher very orderly. They weren't at a great entry to take a big swing, but the fact that they remain leadership by outperforming the indexes makes me happy to keep them in play and even add a little bit.
I also added back a small amount of AI common on the morning's pullback, once it started bouncing. The position is still only half the size it was yesterday, out of respect for the impending Fed news later today that has a tendency to shake things up a bit. But the daily pattern on AI is pretty dang good looking, and buying back 1/3 of the shares I sold yesterday at a lower price point appears attractive to me.
BOTZ to yet another new high. My 200%+ gain ask on 1/3 of my remaining position still hasn't filled, but it's getting very close. Should be interesting to see how the market digests the Fed move (or, as anticipated, lack thereof). We've been moving higher for so many days in a row that I wouldn't be surprised to see a selloff in the wake of the event, but on the other hand, a confirmed pause in the rate hike campaign could FOMO more sidelined money into play... time will tell! Careful on stops today, as the volatility during the Fed announcement and subsequent press conference can often clip you pretty easily. I generally like to have smaller than normal positions going into this event, with looser stops. After the press conference, I will often reset my tighter stops to whatever volatility extremes were reached.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28359615 - 06/14/23 01:26 PM (7 months, 10 days ago) |
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Fed came in line with expectations for the most part. Holding pattern, likely to raise one or two more times this year, with cuts likely to begin in 2024. Market had some volatility on the headline, none of my stops were hit, but I have tightened them up significantly just in case we swoon into the close. So far, things look strong. NVDA hitting new highs after the report, still under accumulation, ride the wave. Most other leadership trading somewhat sideways. MSFT and AAPL at the top of their range, but so far unable to make meaningful fresh highs. I have as such laddered stops, with the tightest ones really quite tight. Any selling into the close and my positions will be cut down to strict single-call placeholders.
All in all, kind of a non-event, but because I'm concentrated in winners (i.e. NVDA/BOTZ/MSFT/AAPL/ORIC), I am, as of this writing up another 7% in aggregate on the day, as the S&P is more or less flat and the Nasdaq is up half a %.
Can't complain! Because my trades have been so "easy" of late, it makes me thing we're due some whiplash soon. But it isn't showing up just yet... so staying long the winners is the way to go, until it isn't. Watching the market and managing my stops, so that when I'm taken out, I'm not giving back too much.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28360034 - 06/14/23 06:48 PM (7 months, 10 days ago) |
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Got clipped out of my MSFT for a very small profit right before the close. AAPL stayed in play. Still haven't hit that 200%+ ask on 1/3 of my BOTZ position, but I suspect it's only a matter of time. Got a fill on the NVDA July $400 call @ $43 that got hit right at the close for +59% on half my position there, so that was pretty solid!
Likely to add some MSFT back tomorrow morning, as it actually closed strong on very high volume, and is also up marginally afterhours. I was mostly concerned about the potential for an end of day selloff and knew I wouldn't be at my desk, so I was being very cautious about not letting any trades turn into losers. Since my MSFT position was almost flat, I put the stop just a little bit too tight. Oh well, you can always buy 'em back! Mitigating losses is the primary mission, and if you can do that, the rest takes care of itself.
Fairly poor closes on the small and midcaps however, which does continue to make me feel like we are due for a broader pullback any day now.
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encryptor


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28360273 - 06/14/23 10:41 PM (7 months, 10 days ago) |
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Geo, what's your strategy for options? How do you go about choosing the right stock?
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: encryptor]
#28360552 - 06/15/23 07:40 AM (7 months, 10 days ago) |
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My strategy for finding the "right stock" is irrespective of whether I will buy common shares or options for exposure. If a stock has an attractive pattern and providing a good entry with respect to risk/reward, I want to own it either way. What will determine whether I use options or common shares primarily has to do with the liquidity of the options. If the options for any given stock have a high open interest and a tight spread between the bid/ask, that means there will be less slippage when entering/exiting the trade. The best tightest spreads are typically found amongst the largest megacap stocks out there, simply because there are more participants in their options market. That's why you see me trading options on issues like MSFT & AAPL so often, but you won't see my trading options on things like ORIC or even AI, to cite recent examples.
Digging a bit deeper, ORIC has low participation and wide spreads, which is a big headwind for reasons earlier stated, namely "slippage", where you're getting taxed by hitting the ask on your entry and the bid on your exit, thereby losing up to 10-20% of the contract value on a round trip trade. AI has a different problem, namely that the stock is so volatile (moves so much) that the premiums (or what you pay for the time value on the contract, which is related to the implied volatility of the underlying stock) are exceptionally high.
Now as for how I use options once I have decided that options are the vehicle I wish to use for any given stock, you should be able to get an idea of my trade strategy by following my posts over time in this thread. Most professional traders use options for income, by selling them. You can sell naked puts (aka shorting puts) that are out of the money, under the expectation that you will keep the revenue from the sale as income. If the underlying stock is above your strike price at expiration, that's all there is to it, rinse and repeat. If the stock is at or below the strike of the put you sold, you will be forced to purchase the shares at that strike price (but you're actually getting them at a discount because of the premium you took in by selling the put). So selling puts can be a good way to leg yourself into positions you might want to hold longer term, but aren't at a perfect entry.
Conversely, if you already own shares in a stock and want to generate additional income without buying more stock, you can sell calls against your shares (aka covered calls). If you sell out of the money calls and your stock is below the strike price at expiration, you keep the premium you took in and you can rinse and repeat. If the stock is above your strike at expiration, you are forced to sell your common shares at the strike price and this in turn caps your upside potential. However, when done well, most of the time you will take in the premium, which overtime lowers your net cost basis in the shares. It's kind of like manufacturing your own dividend on the stock!
Both of the above strategies of selling puts and calls can be combined in what is often referred to as a "wheel" strategy, which is selling puts to acquire stock, then selling calls to generate income, and if you get the shares "called away" from you, you can return to selling puts to reacquire the shares.
There are many other methods for implementing options into your trades, such as straight directional calls, bear and bull spreads, diagonal or calendar spreads, etc... but if you're just getting started on options, I would focus on the two methods I described above, and potentially combining them into a "wheel" strategy. Options are highly leveraged and you should tread lightly. If you can't trade well/consistently in general, options are going to take away your money with amazing speed.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28360554 - 06/15/23 07:51 AM (7 months, 10 days ago) |
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When you do get the hang of options, you can do some pretty amazing stuff by taking directional trades with relatively cheap weekly options, allowing you to control massive amounts of stock with minimal capital... but it's not for the faint of heart, and you will need to be very careful about position sizing, and habitual about knowing your stop levels as soon as you execute the trade, and following them diligently.
Case in point, I took 10 MSFT weekly $340 options that expire tomorrow, that were put on about 12 minutes after the open, when the stock appeared to be holding above yesterday's highs on very high volume. Because these expire so soon, I immediately placed a stop below the morning lows. But because there was a good high volume close that I highlighted yesterday, and because the volume this morning has been very strong on this one, I figured it was worth a shot. There is also a fundamental reason in play, as the Fed signaling a couple of additional rate hikes on the way has put some pressure on small and midcap stocks (because they require easily financed capital to grow), which in turn is continuing to drive money into megacaps such as MSFT that don't have similar financing needs and are therefore less interest rate sensitive. I also looked at the daily bollinger bands, which leave a little room for statistical upside progression (price is still under the top band), so I took the swing.
Within 5 minutes, the options were already up 60%, so I sold half of them, and I'm keeping a trailing stop on the remainder, allowing me to capture further upside, while locking in a quick gain so that there is practically no way this trade can turn into a loss at this point. It doesn't always work out so cleanly, but if you're an active trader and get the hang of it, capturing these remarkable returns on a stock that has only moved 1% on the day is indeed possible. Not for everyone though, your own logical/emotional construct will determine whether you'll be able to operate these sorts of fast moving trades.
I will reiterate that taking these fast moving, high risk (leveraged/short-term) intraday trades absolutely requires strict management of position size. Sure, it would be great to have thrown my entire account into these for a 60% gain inside of 10 minutes... but I didn't know the trade was going to work (and you NEVER will know if a trade will work), so I put about 2% of my account in play instead, because if I were stopped out at the morning low print, I would have lost < 1% of my aggregate account value. That is tolerable, from a risk/reward standpoint. Putting my entire account in play and potentially losing 50% of it on a single trade is not.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28360573 - 06/15/23 08:11 AM (7 months, 10 days ago) |
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Selling weekly $48 covered calls for $2 against my AI common to generate premium. I want to maintain exposure to this stock, but it is up 10% on the day, and getting called away @ $48 tomorrow + $2 in premium would be an additional +6.5% on the trade. That is one thing to note about stocks that have expensive options, they may not be worth buying, but they are great for selling.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28360749 - 06/15/23 11:56 AM (7 months, 10 days ago) |
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Found this little video absolutely hilarious. Count me on team day/scalp/technical/swinger! 
Got my +200% ask on them BOTZ calls. Trying to cover up the rest of my AI common by shorting some $50 calls expiring tomorrow @ $2, but the stock will really need to make another big push today for that to happen. Alternatively, if I don't get a fill, I'll set a stop at the day's lows, which coincide with the 8 day EMA, on the uncovered portion of the position.
NVDA still rocking and rolling. I took some profits there, but hopped back in because the thing just isn't giving in yet.
Now up an incredible 145% and 126% year to date in my primary trading accounts. I'm out of MSFT and AAPL (even though they're still kicking ass), my original BOTZ position now up 200% has been effectively cut in half. Still holding ORIC common, AI (half covered with short calls) and a little NVDA on a very tight leash, but I'm generally in distribution mode outside of really quick intraday trades now. With the rapid run of winners I've been able to book, I don't want to risk overconfidence encouraging me to overexpose myself. I'm also travelling to San Pancho, Mexico July 1st through 12th, and don't want to have a lot of exposure when I'm down there enjoying the sun and surf.
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Wizard_Shames
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28361512 - 06/15/23 09:28 PM (7 months, 9 days ago) |
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What’s a good stock to invest in ?
-------------------- It is never too late to be what you might have been Every saint has a past, and every sinner has a future You will face many defeats in life, but never let yourself be defeated shames.

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encryptor


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Wizard_Shames]
#28361562 - 06/15/23 10:07 PM (7 months, 9 days ago) |
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Geo thanks for the thorough response! Much appreciate it. I will study it.
I think some good stocks right now are AMZN, PYPL, RVLV, CAKE, AMD, NVDA, PLTR, SHOP, DIS, OXY, LMT, NOC, and FUBO
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28361590 - 06/15/23 10:48 PM (7 months, 9 days ago) |
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Congrats Geo on the asskickery! Must admit I got off the wave too early and am trying to convince myself it’s not a big deal.
We’ll see if the trend continues tomorrow
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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