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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Gorlax] * 1
    #28335619 - 05/26/23 01:54 PM (7 months, 29 days ago)

I think Geo definitely put it best - that is the nature of trading that we are constantly scoping how we could’ve done better, and part of that psychology we have to remember is is a game of hindsight, who could really know before the fact if they’re making the right call.

I’m improving at being ok with missing out on big wins because really I’m lucky to not be losing my ass. And am even trying to be as forgiving as possible when I fuck up a position. It just is what it is, and if you stay disciplined and not let the psychology of it affect your plan things should hopefully work out.

I sold everything (MSFT, GOOGL, AI), and 45% of my BOTZ, going into a long weekend. I want to take the past few weeks as a guaranteed win and see if there is a retracement or consolidation next week, and act from there.


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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OfflineHikeadellic
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
    #28339571 - 05/29/23 02:41 PM (7 months, 26 days ago)

Picked up some MTB and TFC recently, they have been doing pretty good, up around 10%. I think regional banks are a "safer" long term investment right now.

NVDA holy moly

I feel its a good idea to hedge against big tech if you are exposed to it right now. Will be opening a short position against NVDA at market open


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OnlinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Hikeadellic]
    #28340374 - 05/30/23 07:51 AM (7 months, 26 days ago)

I would be very cautious with shorting anything in this market right now, and if you do, keep it very short-term oriented.  Keep in mind the ever prevalent question, "Who is behind me?"  Right now, it looks like everyone in line, are the folks with sidelined money trying to find a way to regain exposure to a market that looks set to take off without them.  I'm now, unfortunately, in this camp as well...

Just chanting to myself "don't chase... don't chase... don't chase..." :lol:

My BOTZ position is up over 117% from inception this morning, and I'm so tempted to take some off, but the volume has been SO strong and it just isn't quitting.  What I'm going to do, is set a partial stop below the morning lows at $27.60 and another ask for 1/4 of my position up at around +140% gain... if both of those eventually hit, I'll be out of half of my position with a net ~120% gain.  But the multi-month channel off of the last major lows on the weekly chart is pretty clear, and we aren't even to the half way mark of the channel, with upside north of $31, so I really don't want to be too quick to the exits on this one.  My original plan on this position was roughly 6-12 months.

As for regional banks, I still wouldn't touch them.  There's a big problem in commercial real estate.  Major buildings are continuing to suffer from low occupancy after leaseholders bailed out during the pandemic and "work from home" is proving to be a bit stickier than previously thought.  Further, it's now nearly impossible to refinance these major projects because interest rates have jumped.  Regional banks have considerable exposure to this sector of the real estate market, and I think it is likely we continue to see some more failures as this story continues to play out over the coming year.

Being a contrarian can at times be a viable option, but right now, the theme (mega cap tech, semi-conductors, anything AI) is so clear and so strong, just stick with what is working.  Trying to overcomplicate your trade by attempting to pick a pivot point on a trend is often a big exercise in frustration.  Now I'm not saying to go piling in this morning, I do think we are due to cool off a bit.  But when you put your money to work, put it into the things that are actually working.

Another good question to ask yourself is... "Do I want to make money?  Or do I want to be right?"  The market doesn't always make sense.  If your goal is to make money in the market, you do so most effectively through spotting trends, being patient for the best entries and having the discipline to know exactly what your maximum risk is when you open the trade, so that no matter which way the trade goes, you are OK with however it shakes out.  This risk management is accomplished through through proper position sizing and managing stop losses. If the price action isn't falling in line with your thesis, change your thesis.  Stubborn traders are the ones who will lose their money.  Being flexible and intellectually agnostic is paramount to making the most money in the stock market.


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28340391 - 05/30/23 08:35 AM (7 months, 26 days ago)

Oops///.. :lol:

I half expected to wake up to a screen of green ths morning. Still, made some good money and just need to refocus this cash when things look appropriate. Busy morning so I am not willing to jump right back in after missing out on a huge gap up. Would rather see what things look like in the afternoon, or later this week.


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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OnlinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
    #28340492 - 05/30/23 10:34 AM (7 months, 26 days ago)

Dan over at StockMarketMentor.com had an interesting missive on NVDA this morning... he even asks if you want to be right, or make money? :tongue2:

Quote:

Morning Market Update
Good morning. Futures are up this morning on news that a debt ceiling/budget agreement has been reached -- in principle. The agreement will still need to be approved by the legislature, but it's highly likely that this will happen this week. I haven't read much about it, though I get the impression that it's not any different than prior deals. Government spending will continue to increase each year, but at a slightly slower pace. The extremes of both parties are unhappy with the deal -- each side saying that their leadership caved in to the other side.

And when neither side is happy with the deal, it's probably a good deal. That's the way negotiations work. When everybody is a bit pissed off... mission accomplished!

So, with that uncertainty nearly out of the way (assuming the bill passes without too much drama), the market is clear to move higher.

What is really interesting is the weekend news about NVIDIA ($NVDA), which introduced a new technology that is further exciting the bulls. I have seen this type of thing before. Back in 1999, Qualcomm ($QCOM) advanced more than 2,000% in just 11 months after breaking out of a multi year base with a split-adjusted ceiling of $4 bucks. 11 months later, it was at $100 before nosing into a steep dive of nearly 90%. Now THAT was a roller coaster ride.

One thing about markets that is important to realize. The company may be "overpriced" relative to the typical growth metrics; but that doesn't really matter right now. When the rate of growth acceleration actually accelerates such that it starts to look like a parabolic move, analysts need to catch up with the anticipated growth. So the raise their price targets to account for the rapid growth in revenue. But the acceleration of revenue growth quickly leads to the estimates being met and surpassed. So there is another hike in price targets. And that cyclical dynamic can be ongoing for quite a while. And along with the parabolic increase in revenue is the acceleration of the the stock price increases as stock investors do the same thing as the analysts are doing -- they are trying to keep up with the rate of growth by chasing the stock higher. Momentum traders (like me) will jump on the rocket and push the price even higher. Super-smart short sellers will start to short the stock with conviction because they see that the company is obviously and irrefutably overvalued. So they rush to take advantage of the idiots (like me) who are pushing the stock to new heights.

That ends badly. As short sellers begin covering their shorts--all the while insulting the foolish market that is acting irrational--their buying pushes the stock even higher still. At some point in the future, everyone with money has loaded up on the stock. And at that time and price, the stock peaks. Then the selling begins and ultimately vindicates the argument that the short sellers had been making all along. Of course, those guys left the market a long time ago because they got crushed in their crusade to be proven right.

And therein lies the problem that we all must deal with. Do we want to be right, or do we want to just make money?

I just want to make money; and I want you to make money, too. No one knows how far $NVDA will go before it peaks. There are other companies that will ride the AI train to higher prices -- $MSFT, $META, $GOOGL to name a few. But $NVDA is the company that makes and sells the high tech pick axes and shovels to the cyber gold miners. They have the lead in an industry that is exploding. And that gives them a huge advantage.

You can make all the fundamental-based arguments you want about NVIDIA, but they really don't matter right now. At some point, the "irrational exuberance" will kick in. I just don't think that happens for a while.

Just focus on the chart of this one. Understand the interplay between fundamental analysis, technical analysis and behavioral analysis. That's the cycle that drives the stock price...and grows your account.

--Dan




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OfflineHikeadellic
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28340961 - 05/30/23 06:31 PM (7 months, 25 days ago)

My thesis on regional banks, like MTB, is that the are at a prime spot to be acquired by larger institutions.Just Putting it out there. I can't really say any More.

But yeah with MTB having a dividend around 5% and TFC around 7%, why not hold long term? It beats SCHD's dividend. The commercial real estate crisis is a catalyst for the acquisition thesis.

Made a small profit on NVDA shorts today, will likely close the position later in the week.

I really like the quote you gave on making money vs. being right, will be contemplating that when planning future trades.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28342863 - 06/01/23 08:56 AM (7 months, 24 days ago)

Well the debt ceiling issue seems to be fading, the dollar strength hit a bit of a peak and is backing off, and the market remains resilient after a little cool down over the past couple of days.  Because the SPY is in a pretty clear uptrend now, and because none of the other major indexes are breaking support, I am going to put some placeholders back into play.  Namely, MSFT, AAPL and even a couple of SPY $420 calls going out to July.  Because I'll be away from my usual desk next week, these are not going to be big positions, but they are going to keep me involved, because the market honestly looks pretty decent.  Breadth is still a problem, in that it's the megacaps that are definitively carrying the market, but if that's what's working, that's easy enough for me to wrap my head around and participate.


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28342978 - 06/01/23 11:26 AM (7 months, 24 days ago)

Actually did the same yesterday. Re-entered all my positions mostly tech), add TSLA. Half cash, but may add more just to ride the trend.

AI stock, one i e been touching here and there has been on a rollercoaster ride. Missed the chaos of the past 4-5 days but now that it’s down, and if it continues to slide I may consider reentry.


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28343019 - 06/01/23 12:05 PM (7 months, 23 days ago)

ORIC having a good day, today.


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Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ
(•_•)
<) )~  ANTIFA
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OnlinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #28343054 - 06/01/23 12:43 PM (7 months, 23 days ago)

Yeah, it's a goofy little thing lookin' frisky today (but it looked frisky on the 23rd of May as well, only to come back and text the bottom of the sideways channel).  Such thin trade volume that it can bounce around quite a bit, but it does look constructive.  Hopefully the back half of the year news flow is positive and ORIC will rip, but it's definitely not the type of trade I usually take.  I trust the guy who did the research on it and I do like the technical setup, so I'll give it a shot, but it's not one I'm going to actively trade around or bet the farm on.  It's just a longer term placeholder for capital due to the impending catalysts across its drug development portfolio.

BOTZ with a very nice pullback bounce off its 8 day EMA today.  Those green volume bars over the past few weeks are INSANE.  Rarely if ever have I spotted such consistent and strong upside volume on an issue.  Obviously big money positioning for the AI/automation race that has begun.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28344285 - 06/02/23 10:17 AM (7 months, 23 days ago)

Nice follow through today, with the mid and small caps finally playing some catchup.  Yet another new high on BOTZ, MSFT and AAPL.  Sure wish I had some TSLA, but I'm just sitting here watching people mint a fortune there without me.  The VIX is also really low, which actually has me taking just a tiny bit of exposure to UVXY here, to hedge my long positions while I'm away next week.  Jobs numbers were pretty strong, and that could encourage Fed heads to start squakin' hawkish next week.  If that happens and the VIX spikes, I'll be sitting pretty.  If it doesn't, no big loss as my long positions are likely to continue working and my exposure to UVXY is through late July $3 calls, purchased at $0.29, in a size tolerable to total loss although if we don't see a pop in volatility in the next two weeks, I should be able to close the position while preserving much of its value, due to UVXY options retaining value pretty well into expiration due to the outsized moves the leveraged fund can make in a crisis.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28352637 - 06/08/23 08:33 PM (7 months, 16 days ago)

Thoughts on Lululemon right now?  They have a trend of good earnings and women loves this clothing brand. :sun:


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: encryptor]
    #28354557 - 06/10/23 02:24 PM (7 months, 14 days ago)

I would not buy LULU right now. I did recently buy VSCO though. Seems like a risky play but I think it will pay off in the long term. Something to think about if you want exposure to the women's apparel sector

Been spending time reading up on commodity's lately and natural gas has caught my eye. It seems like a pretty sure high return. I feel like I'm missing some vital detail but I can't quite put my finger on it


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Hikeadellic]
    #28354858 - 06/10/23 07:45 PM (7 months, 14 days ago)

Yeah Victoria Secret has been hit pretty hard recently.  I recently bought Revolve (RVLV).  You might be right on Lululemon.  They are known for good earnings, who knows if thieves will now take advantage of this store knowing they won't be stopped.  I think PayPal (PYPL) is a good company that has been hit hard recently and so there don't seem to be much downside from here.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: encryptor]
    #28355513 - 06/11/23 11:35 AM (7 months, 14 days ago)

I started to scale into $VSCO as well. Very undervalued play imo. Trading with P/E under 6, return on equity well over 90%, Price/Free cash flow under 5, and massive brand recognition. Solid :ape:


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: encryptor]
    #28356058 - 06/11/23 06:46 PM (7 months, 13 days ago)

Quote:

encryptor said:
Thoughts on Lululemon right now?  They have a trend of good earnings and women loves this clothing brand. :sun:



Nice earnings pop, came back and price was caught at the 8 day EMA.  It's not my type of trade to take, but if I were so inclined, because it doesn't look terrible, I would keep a hard stop where buyers came in to support the post earnings shakeout @ $350.  If it trades below that print, it's not likely to be a good time.  If I did want to own this thing (and to be clear, I don't), I'd buy half here with a stop at $350, and then add the second half on a move above the earning's enthusiasm high @ $387.  In between $350 and $387 and it just seems like dead money.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Hikeadellic]
    #28356073 - 06/11/23 06:55 PM (7 months, 13 days ago)

Quote:

Hikeadellic said:
I would not buy LULU right now. I did recently buy VSCO though. Seems like a risky play but I think it will pay off in the long term. Something to think about if you want exposure to the women's apparel sector




You're bottom fishing... and I would contend that, generally, it's a poor idea.  VSCO may be overdone and due for a snapback, but sellers are in control with literally months of selling underway.  Earnings caught a very small bid, but still couldn't make it above the prior day's high.  That's not a good thing.  You need to have a hard stop at the earnings print low of $17.39, and frankly, this is one I would just stay away from entirely.  Why try to outsmart the market?  You want to be right?  Or do you want to make money?  NVDA, ACLS, BOTZ, RMBS, AAPL, MSFT, META, AMZN, GOOGL... look at all of those charts.  Then look at VSCO.  There is one chart you don't want to own amongst that group, do you see it?


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28356804 - 06/12/23 09:44 AM (7 months, 13 days ago)

Some caution warranted here, as the "Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence Indicator" is approaching an extreme, where indicators/funds that are typically wrong at turning points (i.e. dumb money) are very bullish, at the same time that indicators/funds that are typically right at turning points (i.e. smart money) are very bearish.  This indicator is only valuable at opposite extremes, which is where we are now.  With the VIX also very low, the market is short-term overbought with high levels of complacency, this does leave us ripe for an imminent pullback.  As such, I'm going to leave my July UVXY $3 calls in play for the time being, even as the position is trading at a loss.

On the other side of the coin, we are seeing more participation or breadth in the market, where it's not just the megacaps that are working.  Small (IWM) and mid caps (MDY) have started to move.  There has been some rotation into industrials as well, so these are signs that support a continued rally... but the highlights in my first paragraph above do warrant caution.

Now that I'm back in the saddle, I'm going to be playing fairly close to the vest with my more typical, short-term leveraged trading strategies on largely intraday action that overlays the prevailing trends.  Seeing MSFT having pulled back to its 20 day here and printing a "W" pattern intraday, now convincingly above VWAP for the first time today, I have put on a handful of weekly $325 calls with a stop at $325.55.  AAPL has been stronger, holding above its 8 day EMA, and with the move at the open that held yesterday's low and the move a few moments ago above yesterday's high, I am also in a handful of weekly $182.50 calls, initial stop at $181.22.

Looks like those short $8 puts on MARA executed while I was on vacation last week, and have currently captured 83% of their value.  I will likely close these out today to eliminate the risk of a sudden downdraft that wipes out the profit and puts me shares @ $8, although since the SEC actions against Binance and Coinbase have already created a pretty big downdraft that stabilized, this position is probably safe to let expire for full value capture Friday.

Let's see what happens...


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28356918 - 06/12/23 11:09 AM (7 months, 13 days ago)

Heard on the sentiment of smart/dumb money. People have been watching lots of money be made on AI, with such a sharp upturn this past month it could be a dangerous time to enter. I have been aggressive with the market movement the past few weeks (AI/Lithium stocks) - really adding to positions. Am not really motivated to exit, but do think it would be smart to set stops near the close today. TSLA has been a surprise, though I only had about 15 shares, one of my biggest gainers recently. Would love to see this one pull back significantly, so I could just buy a whole lot more.

After a year and a half of sideways (and rather painful) trading, my portfolio has broken through a long held barrier, and has now been consistently attaining ATHs week after week. I dont want to get cocky, or complacent, and would rather keep the trend going, so hoping to remember the hard times and remain prudent going into the next few weeks.

Also have an eye on Energy (XLE, IXC, and EIX). No plans to buy yet. But If they continue a trend down will be looking at accumulating some closer to their lows in 20/21.


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
    #28356934 - 06/12/23 11:18 AM (7 months, 13 days ago)

Does everyone think the stock market is safe for long term investing?

I have 17k, its my retirement fund, I hope to get it to about 25k by the end of the year

Should iput this money in a etf? I'm just worried with the way the world is, the whole market could crash and burn

Although I wouldnt be withdrawing the money for 30 years maybe longer

I like VGRO, iirc its 20% bonds, 80% stockz

Really I want to put 2.5k into both pslv and phys and the ramining 12k plus any extra money I make in the future, into a etf


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For most of the normies out there, an operating system is just a bootloader for Google Chrome.

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