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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28323045 - 05/17/23 09:50 AM (8 months, 8 days ago) |
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So far so good, weekly AI $24 calls are up 40%, I also have a chunk of common stock, up 3%. Stops are all up to break-even or better.
The S&P has been trading so tightly over the past week and a half, unusually tight... As a result, I'm inching my way into some June SPY call options, under the assumption that we might just break out to the upside. Although I have no real way of knowing whether we are going to break up or down, the fact that the range is so tight, allows me to enter the position with very low risk, as my stop levels are very clear (and very close).
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28323229 - 05/17/23 12:11 PM (8 months, 7 days ago) |
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Gotta run to Costco, so I'm closing out my AI weekly calls at a 67% gain on the day 
Leaving the common stock, up some 4%, with a trailing stop.
SPY calls are also up almost 30%, I think I'll swing those overnight since they go out to June expiration and today's move is pushing the S&P above the last week's range.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28324487 - 05/18/23 07:50 AM (8 months, 7 days ago) |
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Took my longer dated NVDA position off for a 55% gain. The stock is looking extended, and I think I can roll up to a higher strike call on a pull back to ~$300. Also took off the last of my AI common for a nice gain. Also took my SPY calls off for the quick 22% gain.
One thing I did add to this morning is MSFT, with a good sized weekly $315 call position that expires tomorrow. The options were just over a buck, and I can keep my initial loss contained to ~$0.20 with a stop at today's low. The stock has moved above its opening rotation high as I'm typing this, putting the options up 45%, so my stop will now go to breakeven at $314.44. Man, my trades have been smokin' this week!
Edit: Ratcheted up the stop on those weekly MSFT's and got taken out for a 27% gain. Not bad for 10 minutes of exposure! 
I think I'm probably done for the week... headin' to see Mighty Poplar tonight downtown, then to Dead & Company in the 'hood tomorrow. Time to kick back and enjoy the music, get out in the yard and sweat a bit.
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Edited by geokills (05/18/23 07:57 AM)
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28324543 - 05/18/23 08:53 AM (8 months, 7 days ago) |
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Man you’re not wrong. I’m just playing with commons and still feel like I could do no wrong. Probably one of my best weeks since 2020 
Will probably cash out a few of these and see what happens going into tomorrow and the weekend.
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#28324584 - 05/18/23 09:46 AM (8 months, 7 days ago) |
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Whoa, got back from droppin' the kid off at school and I apparently left several thousand dollars on the table by closing out my NVDA, MSFT, AAPL and SPY positions too early. 
Not gonna sweat it though, my account is now up a full 48% year to date. 
I did put on a little bit of SSO with a trailing stop to replace the SPY calls I had shut down this morning. It's up marginally (~1%), but it's a common position so it's not moving the needle nearly the same. I do prefer to transition to common stock after the initial big moves though, as it helps keep me restrained and, in the event of a reversal, won't sting nearly as much... but still helps me feel like I'm getting a piece of the action if the move continues after I've shut down the bulk of my leverage.
In my most active account, I'm only holding a few MSFT June $310 calls, some SSO common, and a fairly sizable position in BOTZ, which is now up 50%.
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28324597 - 05/18/23 10:06 AM (8 months, 7 days ago) |
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We’ll done sir 
I just had a chance to log in and close out my positions, which included a bunch of techs, AMZN, MSFT, TSLA, NVDA, GOOG, and I think one or two others.
Also took profits on BOTZ and AI, though will certainly be entering them again - just would like to see where sentiment is headed Friday and going into the weekend.
Only remaining stocks are VZ and PCRFY. I might halve them both and enter another lithium stock (the ticker is on my home laptop), but this will be something for next week.
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#28329723 - 05/22/23 09:30 AM (8 months, 3 days ago) |
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With those MSFT options I rolled up the strikes on now up some 70%, I put out an ask to close 2/3 of the position if we continue to see a move above $323 today. BOTZ is also continuing to hit fresh 52 week highs, but the weekly chart is my bogey here, and with that perspective, I'm seeing a channel off of last year's lows that indicates upside north of $30. It is nevertheless tempting to take some off here, but because artificial intelligence is the hot shit, I don't want to be too quick to sell out of the momentum.
Honorable mentions to SHOP with an actionable bounce this morning after a post-earnings blast off / cool off period (no position at the moment because I saw it late and don't want to buy it up 6% on the day). TSLA, AMD, SPOT, NVDA, META, GOOGL, AI, heck even TLRY is gettin' some love today... all while the S&P remains more or less flat.
I did pick up some AAPL intraday, via weekly calls, on its push back above VWAP 15 minutes ago. It took a little pullback to its 8 day EMA which has been fairly reliable support, and with the QQQ's pushing to highs, I figure AAPL should participate. Since the weekly $175 options are cheap and highly liquid, it's a nice way to get some leveraged exposure, especially when I can keep my stop 0.25% below my entry (just below VWAP @ $173.99). Very low risk, with a potentially impressive reward thanks to the leverage of the options. Nice when you get the opportunity to take this type of trade, as options often aren't liquid enough to go in big, since even a really tight stop can sting due to the wide spreads between the bid and the ask. In the case of AAPL's $175 weeklies, the spreads are maintaining at around 1-2% of the contract price.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28329803 - 05/22/23 10:59 AM (8 months, 3 days ago) |
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AAPL trade went no where. I did take off 1/3 of the MSFT calls for a +50% gain when it broke under VWAP. Leaving the last 2/3 of the position on because I have a good profit cushion and the stock is still outperforming the indexes. SPY is about as flat as it gets, pretty boring day after the opening moves highlighted above, all of which I missed because I was sleeping in today 
MSFT & BOTZ still have me up nearly 2% in aggregate on a flat day, so I can't complain too much.
Thinking about putting on a slice of ORIC common stock. A thinly traded biotech small cap that has three catalysts in the back half of the year for cancer drugs. It's come down huge from its highs a couple of years ago and has been consolidating for a year now. Analysts by and large have price targets 3X where the stock is currently trading. This isn't my typical type of investment, but I like the story, that it's come in a lot, and that there are imminent potential catalysts. Position size relatively small here, because it is thin and buying based on potential catalysts is almost as bad as buying ahead of an earnings report. But it's the dynamic of the long term consolidation with some underlying but not overly enthusiastic optimism that's making me want to take a bite to see what happens... I figure roughly 50% downside risk with 300%+ upside if their cancer studies perform well. That's acceptable to me, but by risking 50%, position size must be managed accordingly. Wouldn't put more than 5% of my trade portfolio into such a high risk proposition, which equates to risking ~2.5% of the account for a potential ~15% gain.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28331140 - 05/23/23 11:43 AM (8 months, 2 days ago) |
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Let the market come in a bit. Might be a lot of Fed speak this week, debt ceiling drama, probably a good week to get sleepy with things. PSA: If you have positions that aren't working, this is a good a time as any to take the loss and clear the deck. Don't trade on hope. This is a distribution day and I would expect us to have some sideways action at best here for the week, you don't want to tolerate losers in your portfolio. You also always want to be asking yourself, "Would I buy this right now if I didn't already own it?" If the answer is no, that's a good indication that you should reevaluate and reset your stop levels a bit tighter.
I also want to draw attention to BOTZ

Notice the exceptional volume bars over the last several days, as this artificial intelligence oriented ETF moved up and out of its volatility squeeze. Also note the "stacked" moving averages, all trending higher, all on top of one another. The fact that this has been steadily climbing, and that the last four days brought HUGE buying pressure, shows you that big money institutions are getting on board here. Which is no surprise if you keep an even tacit eye toward current events, as AI art and chat bots have at times dominated the cultural discourse over the past several months.
So, I reiterate, this is where you want to be. Buyers have taken their foot off the gas here, allowing the stock to glide back into its 8 day EMA (the thin orange line in the above chart). I would definitely watch for and expect stabilization, if not an outright bounce, at around $26. If the market in aggregate continues to weaken and this thing gets down to its 20 day MA, that would be a golden opportunity to pick up shares.
The AI theme is going to be with us for a long time, as the technology continues to mature and show its rather remarkable capabilities, including clearer visions for its future use and impact. Outside of broad market ETFs like QQQ and SPY, BOTZ is likely the only thing I would currently feel comfortable recommending to people for stashing long term investment capital, as a "set it and forget it" kind of position.
Just wanted to highlight it today, because if you don't own any, this is probably a good place to start putting a position together, around 2% above probable short term support. Considering buying more myself.
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28331690 - 05/23/23 06:00 PM (8 months, 1 day ago) |
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Thank you for this sentiment Geo. Agreed that there seems to a ton of anticipation in regard to the Fed and the debt ceiling. I prefer to be sitting on cash right now, and mostly am. Aside from Panasonic the only other holdings I have are directly related to AI, including BOTZ
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#28331734 - 05/23/23 06:44 PM (8 months, 1 day ago) |
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Incidentally, there is a 2X "ultra" ETF on BOTZ, that trades under ticker symbol: UBOT. I just found this out today, and intend to use it to capitalize on momentum rips since the option spreads on BOTZ are too wide to trade with any frequency, and BOTZ moves in such small increments that I don't want to tie up a big portion of my buying power holding boatloads of BOTZ common.
Edit: The volume on UBOT is pretty poor however.
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Edited by geokills (05/25/23 08:19 AM)
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28332753 - 05/24/23 02:45 PM (8 months, 21 hours ago) |
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Whoa, NVDA beating on both lines and raising guidance by $4 BILLION. Hot damn. Stock is up $55 after hours, I had a handful of common shares in a long term account that I'm selling in the post market here at $362. Almost put on some bull call spreads as a lotto ticket into earnings, and my top strike was going to be $320 . Didn't take that trade though, as I just don't like to trade on the wildcard that is earnings. Nevertheless, very impressive beat by NVDA, cementing their leadership position. Lots of follow-on buying across the semiconductor sector.
Now comes the hard part, finding my next entry to get back into NVDA! I am officially a "sold out bull"
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28332801 - 05/24/23 03:10 PM (8 months, 20 hours ago) |
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woah! that is great news!! I am only holding 10 shares but will take it ...
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#28332854 - 05/24/23 03:34 PM (8 months, 20 hours ago) |
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Hah, and I look a li'l dumb for dishin' it out at $362... with the stock up to $395 now 
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Ice9
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28333611 - 05/25/23 05:19 AM (8 months, 6 hours ago) |
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Pigs get slaughtered, I always kind of assumed your avatar was a reference to that saying
-------------------- The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man. -- George Brenard Shaw
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Ice9]
#28333785 - 05/25/23 08:18 AM (8 months, 3 hours ago) |
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Hehe, yeah it loosely is, although I originally liked it because I'm just a big fan of pork meat, in particular the cured varieties. 
Anywho, I'm spinning out the last of my MSFT call options here up some 50% as the stock is gapping up in sympathy with NVDA/tech in general. I still have some common in a longer term account and don't see anything necessarily wrong with the trend (quite the opposite as MSFT printed a new 52 week high this morning), but my calls are now front month (June) and I do still think we have some consolidation to deal with before we see a big leg higher overall.
My kid is also on his last week of Kindergarten and we're hauling the family out to north Scottsdale for a week two days after school ends, at which point I think I'll be more focused on morning hikes, the steam room and playing around in the pool, than I will be with managing my positions. It's been a really good run for me, and historically, it's been a good practice to take a step back after outperforming, to keep the ego in check and revisit the market with a clearer head and plenty of idle capital.
Only large position I still have on is BOTZ.
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28334825 - 05/25/23 10:38 PM (7 months, 30 days ago) |
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Am still holding a handful of AIs, and even doubled down on a couple. Sold my NVDA, and added to BOTZ as well.
Don’t want to get lost in clouds tho so am setting stops a little below break even for most of these.
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#28335220 - 05/26/23 08:37 AM (7 months, 30 days ago) |
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Market appears to be anticipating an imminent resolution to the debt ceiling. Big tech is still leading the way majorly (e.g. MSFT, META, AMD, GOOGL, AMZN, AAPL). Even some lesser known tech names like RMBS and ACLS are really performing admirably. Honestly, I'm a little frustrated at my lack of exposure as the SPY is pushing back up to last week's breakout high. A move above that level is likely to create a lot of follow-on buying, as sidelined money doesn't want to get left behind (mine included!). Nevertheless, I don't really want to put on a bunch of exposure ahead of the holiday weekend and my upcoming trip out of town.
Going to stick with the plan, not take on exposure ahead of the weekend and look for a pull back next week to add back placeholders in MSFT, AAPL and AMZN and rebuild positions from there. RMBS is looking set to attack highs not seen since the dot com bubble and subsequent loss of 99% of its value, it's quite extended here but I wouldn't mind grabbing some of that on weakness either.
Human psychology can be such a torment... I've been prattling on about the AI theme for a long while now, and honestly it's paid me off pretty well. But the nag in the back of the mind is always, "should've gone bigger". Really drives me crazy how the human brain seems hardwired to throw you off your logical process by feeding into your most emotional sentiments at every opportunity!
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Brian Jones
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28335385 - 05/26/23 10:48 AM (7 months, 30 days ago) |
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Started buying MSFT to go along with AMZN for long term AI exposure. Seemed like safe picks with their diversified business models. AMZN got back half of the value they lost last year, but that comes out of my check every week, so I befitted from some DCA when it was tanking.
I thought about NVDA for a couple weeks but was hesitant because not so safe/diversified. Kicking my self now when it shot up like a rocket.
-------------------- "The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either. The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,
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Gorlax



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Brian Jones]
#28335475 - 05/26/23 12:01 PM (7 months, 30 days ago) |
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Man I've been getting smoked lately and its starting to really bother me. I've been trading for a long time now and this isn't as bad as 2022 but it seems almost impossible for me to hold on to profit. It's like the smallest little thing makes a stock swing 10-20 points and usually to the downside.
I can accept taking losses on momentum trades and quick penny trades but when stocks I've spent months if not years researching start to collapse... idk... this market is a piece of work
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