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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28304675 - 05/03/23 09:25 AM (8 months, 22 days ago) |
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I bought back my short $8.50 puts on MARA that expire Friday, capturing 75% of the total value. It still looks like they're due to report earnings tomorrow after the bell, and I don't want to risk a nice gain just to capture the last 25% of the max profit on the trade.
I'm also hanging out a fresh ask on next week's $8.50 puts, trying for $0.50. Still wouldn't mind owning some MARA @ $8, and can perhaps catch a fill on these short puts during the Fed and/or earnings induced volatility.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28304883 - 05/03/23 12:30 PM (8 months, 21 days ago) |
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Bought back the NVDA I sold on the morning weakness, as we have moved to new highs on the day, after the Fed report, on volume. Not likely to do much else right here right now.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28304918 - 05/03/23 12:58 PM (8 months, 21 days ago) |
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Market still very volatile during Fed chair press conference / Q&A. But I added some more SPOT as well. The stock is behaving very well, barely pulled back today, vastly outperforming the indexes, pushing out of a tight period of prolonged consolidation (aka a squeeze) and nearly into blue sky territory.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28306113 - 05/04/23 09:08 AM (8 months, 21 days ago) |
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Yeesh, still not an easy trade market. Stopped out of NVDA. SPOT still hanging in there. GLD moving higher, with the S&P threatening to fall out of a 3.5% volatility squeeze to the downside. Regional banks under pressure again after yesterday's rate hike. I don't think we're going to fall much farther from here this week, after four down days, but I also think upside is going to be hard to come by. Just not a very attractive market.
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28307580 - 05/05/23 09:59 AM (8 months, 20 days ago) |
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First chance in a while to take a good look, likely will be getting in if I see any discounts on great blue chips. Have been 70-80% cash for a few weeks now
Edit: NM, am going to sit for. While longer. Will take a peak closer to closing today.
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#28307625 - 05/05/23 10:34 AM (8 months, 20 days ago) |
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Directionless right here right now, S&P stuck in a ~3% range, but the 200 day remains support. An S&P close above 4200 is likely to tip the bias more reliably to the long side. Took a small nibble of MSFT today on its fresh 52 week high. NVDA frustrating me something fierce after getting shaken out twice and now pushing back toward the top of its range. I have some emotional scarring on that one, so as much as I've been tempted to jump back into it this morning, I'm letting that one lay and will revisit next week.
BOTZ looking ripe for takeoff, but it's a slow grinder so it may still track sideways for a while longer, until the market overall picks a direction.
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28308327 - 05/05/23 09:39 PM (8 months, 19 days ago) |
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Understood about NVDA - had been burned in similar fashion a year and change ago, it seemed to time specially against me. It’s now one that I seldom touch for that reason, even though I really like where the company is headed.
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#28311180 - 05/08/23 09:15 AM (8 months, 17 days ago) |
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SPOT continuing to move up and out of its squeeze. Options up 25%.
NVDA just pushed through Friday's highs, I'm back in via weeklies. Just looking for a continued push through the day.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills] 1
#28311592 - 05/08/23 03:16 PM (8 months, 16 days ago) |
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Finally caught a current with NVDA, took a 33% gain on the day on 2/3 of my position at the close. Letting 1/3 ride overnight. SPOT still lookin' good too, up 25% there.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28312322 - 05/09/23 07:48 AM (8 months, 16 days ago) |
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Taking some GOOGL right out of the gate, it's breaking above a 6 week flag at its 200 day MA, earnings are in the rear view. Volatility squeeze into upside expansion, my favorite pattern.
Added a little to MSFT. Been flagging since earnings and just isn't giving much up. The Q's look pretty strong, and MSFT has been leading.
NVDA resting this morning, put a stop on the last 1/3 of yesterday's position below the opening rotation low (first 15 minute candle). If I get stopped out, this last tranche gets let loose near break even, which is why I booked the bulk of my profits yesterday at the close. Smoke 'em if you got 'em.
Edit: Stops hit on GOOGL and NVDA. MSFT staying inside yesterday's range so far, but downward pressure. Ho hum sideways action. Not much going on.
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Edited by geokills (05/09/23 10:08 AM)
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28313878 - 05/10/23 08:05 AM (8 months, 15 days ago) |
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Alright, finally getting a little traction here on the better than expected CPI report this morning (the Fed weights CPI heavily in determining their rate strategy).
SPOT calls are up ~40%, the squeeze continues to expand to the upside in a very orderly fashion. I have raised my initial stop from $134.99 to $144.98 (just below this morning's low), to lock in profits whenever the tide may turn. I will continue ratcheting up the stop each day until I am taken out of the trade.
I added a handful of weekly calls on MSFT about 20 minutes into the trading day, after the stock worked off its gap open, the stock is now back above VWAP and just printed a fresh high on the day, so the trade stop has been moved to breakeven. I also hold a few longer duration calls on MSFT, but I liked the tight setup here, and given the favorable market conditions, wanted to get a little more short term exposure, as I think this one has a good chance of moving up and out of the range.
I did put on a single longer duration call on NVDA yesterday. A small position by my standard, but I wanted to figure out a way to maintain exposure to this very strong stock without getting shaken out so frequently. Hence, smaller position size, longer duration call.
BOTZ (the AI-centric ETF) also pushing to a fresh 52 week high. I have a lot of long duration exposure on this one.
Overall, S&P still in range, but the CPI relief could result in more upside continuation, or not... we'll just have to wait and see and play it close to the vest. The action so far however, warrants taking on a little more risk.
Honorable mentions to SHOP and AMD. No positions there, but they've been pretty epic.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28314708 - 05/10/23 06:35 PM (8 months, 14 days ago) |
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Took a very pleasant ride on MSFT via a boatload of weekly $312.50 calls during the last ~90 minutes of the day when the stock started to hit new highs. Closed it out for a 40% average gain, top ticked half of the position @ $313 and got stopped out of the remainder 10 minutes before the close. Still holding longer duration MSFT calls.
Got stopped out of my SPOT calls earlier in the day. The stock closed at its highs however, so my stop was, in hindsight, a little too tight. Should've kept it at yesterday's low, but I didn't want to give up that much profit, so I put it at today's opening rotation low instead and got clipped. Nevertheless, I won't begrudge another 40% gain!
Kinda wanted to buy more NVDA today, but the stock never made it above its morning highs so I'm still just hanging onto a single longer duration call for the moment. I just don't like taking too much exposure overnight with how gappy the opens have been. And because the market has been so whippy within its range, I think the wait and see approach makes more sense. Still, I'd be very surprised if NVDA doesn't hit $300 in very short order. I'll be looking for a move above $291 tomorrow to add some short dated options for a quick scalp similarly to how I traded MSFT today.
GOOGL blasted off today on very good volume, missed that one unfortunately. I'll be watching to see if I can catch a piece on a test of $110, ~$2 lower than the close and $3 lower than the daily high. If we zig down to that in the morning and start to zag back up, that would seem to be a good low-risk entry to capitalize on the expansion.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28315389 - 05/11/23 07:46 AM (8 months, 14 days ago) |
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Sold a handful of $116/$117 bear call spreads on GOOGL that expire tomorrow, for a $0.50 net credit. Kinda in the hot seat right now, but I kept my position size small out of respect for the powerful move in this stock. I nevertheless think the buying power is likely to abate at some point today and give me the opportunity to close this trade for a profit.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28320374 - 05/15/23 09:30 AM (8 months, 10 days ago) |
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Well those GOOGL bear call spreads were a mistake. Could have exited at breakeven and even a small profit at a couple of points, but held through to expiration for a total loss. Fortunately I kept the trade small.
NVDA held yesterday's low and is at the highs of the day. I have added back some exposure here, although we are still "inside" friday's range. A move above $287.80 would be an "inside and up" pattern, which, especially since it is coming on the heels of a minor pullback, should produce upside continuation.
BOTZ walking along its 8 day EMA, about to print a fresh 52 week high. Still in a squeeze technically, but looking to push higher.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28320649 - 05/15/23 01:53 PM (8 months, 9 days ago) |
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Although NVDA is closing strong, the position I put on this morning was via weekly $282.50 calls, which are up better than 50% and which I am now shutting down here at the close. With short dated options, it's really important to have an eye for the exits, and book the profits when you have them. I still have some longer duration NVDA on the books, as I do think it's probable that it continues higher... the weekly $282.50 calls are just too risky to hold overnight.
BOTZ closing at a new 52 week high.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28321714 - 05/16/23 09:11 AM (8 months, 9 days ago) |
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Big tech, pretty much all I want right here right now. Been leaning into NVDA this morning again with $292.50 calls, except I moved out to contracts that expire a week later on the 26th instead of this friday. Have also been building a higher strike $310 call position in MSFT and ratcheting up my stop on my lower strike $300 calls which are profitable. As calls get deeper in the money (or longer duration), the trading volume tends to dry up and this in turn widens the spreads, resulting in some slippage when you execute. Hence why I am "rolling up" my MSFT position to a higher strike.
Wanted to get some AMZN but missed it. It still looks fairly buyable, but I don't want to overexpose myself and will watch for some sideways drift to, hopefully, pick some up either lower or closer to a key moving average. They've been cutting back benefits and raising various "baked in" prices across their platform (e.g. prime & grocery delivery surcharges), so I expect they will probably have some pretty good upside over the coming quarters.
Also missed AMD, saw it yesterday and almost took a bite on its bounce at the 8 day EMA, I didn't, and it blasted off this morning before I could fire off a buy.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28321783 - 05/16/23 10:20 AM (8 months, 9 days ago) |
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Quote:
OpenAI CEO Says He Wishes People Would Use ChatGPT Less Because 'We Don't Have Enough GPUs'
Well that explains why NVDA just won't quit. 
I sold half of the fresh tranche of NVDA weekly calls I put on this morning for a 20% gain. Tightening up the stop on the remaining half. We're just about to hit the upper bollinger band on the daily chart, and I would expect it to contain price today, for a close at or below $300. That still leaves a few bucks of potential profit on the trade, but I won't be holding the weeklies overnight (although I will continue to look for intraday opportunities to capitalize via these short-dated derivatives). Still have my longer duration placeholder position, as this one is likely to run into earnings which are slated for May 24th after the close.
MSFT just farting around at the top of its daily range. The QQQ's have been expanding to the upside for the last week and a half with scarcely a rest, so I would expect a pause soon, but I wouldn't be too surprised to see one quick push higher before that happens, in which case I am anticipating MSFT could move from its current position around $313, up to $320-$325. Not a huge move on the underlying, but by utilizing options, the returns can be extraordinary (as can the losses, if you are not picking good entries and maintaining your stops!). I have the bulk of my short-term options on MSFT protected by a stop just below the volume weighted average price (~$312).
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28321852 - 05/16/23 11:11 AM (8 months, 9 days ago) |
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Took the last of my NVDA weeklies off for +32% on the day with the stock above $298 and just under my max daily target of $300. Even though I had a bit of a rough time on my first few takes at NVDA this past month, it paid to be disciplined and persistent, and the trades this week have brought my account back to its highs for the year, +35% year to date. I was right around this level a couple of months ago, so this is where discipline is going to prove most important... to make sure that I not only continue to build upon the profits, but more importantly, that I don't give back too much in the process.
There is always an ebb and a flow in trading, and the hardest thing for me personally to master, is to remain as strict in my process when I'm up big, as I am when I'm on the ropes. I often have a tendency to push more risk after I've made a big gain, and that's a habit that almost never produces optimal results.
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#28322612 - 05/16/23 11:09 PM (8 months, 8 days ago) |
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Agreed on that last sentiment. Though I have learned to be more disciplined how aggressive my entries are, it is ratcheting up stops to lock in gains that still can be hard - I hate to see a dip that stops me out and then the thing pushes even higher, so I tend to stay loose, which also leaves a lot on the table.
Have been mildly (1/4) exposed to techs the past week or so. Would have bought in on a dip, but they never came. Will take the profits ive made.
Have been exposed long term to PCRFY - in fact its the only stock that I have refused to back out of when selling all others anticipating a downturn. It has brought my Roth to an ATH. Ive been with them as a lithium battery play, with EV cars suddenly being everywhere you look. Someones gotta make those batteries. Hard not to sell, just because like how much higher can this thing churn, but it keeps going that direction.
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#28322889 - 05/17/23 07:45 AM (8 months, 8 days ago) |
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PCRFY is a bit thin for me, but nice job, solid earnings beat and flagging nicely! I do like the lithium thesis.
Taking a ride on some AI this morning. Had a big breakout on Monday, barely gave any back yesterday, and moving higher now. Initial stop at low of day ~$23.50.
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