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OnlinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28249044 - 03/27/23 10:05 AM (9 months, 28 days ago)

Oops, clipped out on SPOT as well.  Double burn.  Welp, I'm done for the day.  Market remains under pressure.


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OfflineEnkidu
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28249386 - 03/27/23 02:24 PM (9 months, 27 days ago)

Was unable to look at the markets today until almost closed, but looks like I didn't miss much besides a few giant squeezes that are so hard to anticipate

Besides those looked like things were a bit snail paced and sideways


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Within You , Without You


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OfflineHikeadellic
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Enkidu]
    #28251977 - 03/28/23 08:39 PM (9 months, 26 days ago)

I thought the news about LYFT getting a new exec from AMZN was interesting

LYFT went up a lot at open but dipped a lot by close

I would enjoy hearing predictions about regional banks and AAPL


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OnlinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Hikeadellic] * 1
    #28252586 - 03/29/23 07:58 AM (9 months, 26 days ago)

AAPL is a consumer technology, fashion and subscription services giant.  They've built a very attractive walled garden with products that generally lead their industry and have tremendous amounts of cash on hand.  Because of this security in 1) their stable customer base who loves to buy into their upgrade cycle and 2) their immense amount of cash both on hand and with regard to ongoing cash flow, they are not at all debt sensitive and therefore have some immunity against interest rate risk.  It is worth noting however, that rising rates do cool economic activity which will ultimately affect consumer purchasing power that drives their sales.  But all in all, I think AAPL is a safe stock to own.  I own it, it's easy to hold.  It ebbs and flows as do all market entities, but it's kind of been basing for the last 2.5 years, so I think it could be ready to take a leg higher at some point.  Can't tell you when that will be, but for a long term hold, it's hard not to feel comfortable with AAPL.

With regard to regional banks, it's not where I want to park money.  Risk is very high and although federal agencies have pledged support to "backstop" the system, including in effect negotiating capital infusions from the biggest banks, thereby further consolidating the industry and making the biggest banks even bigger, I just wouldn't feel comfortable playing in the sector outside of very short-term oriented day trades.  And at this point, those aren't as interesting to me as volatility has more or less died down, even as I'm sure we'll get another banking related failure/crisis or two that could produce some opportunities.  It's just not a safe place to park money though, and I think there are better high risk opportunities out there in asymmetric sectors... like the crypto miners (e.g. MARA/RIOT) or AI sector (e.g. AI/BOTS), for example.

We got a nice little relief gap this morning, but it's generally been a losing proposition to buy into gaps.  However, SHOP is looking increasingly attractive with a very high volume power move during the opening rotation, pushing above several coiled and squeezing key moving averages.  I already had a position here going into the day, but I did add just a little bit.

My other positions, which I haven't touched, and don't really plan to touch anything else at the moment, include AAPL, AEHR, ALGM, BOTZ, MDC & MSFT.  I got stopped out of SPOT earlier this week, and it is still in consolidation, but worth keeping an eye on as it looks like it will probably move higher before too long.  Ideally, we'll trade sideways for another week or so, allowing the 50 day to catch up to price, and then see a breakout.  For now, patience and not overtrading is key.  This is not an easy market, but it does appear to be setting up to turn higher.  Still a ton of headline risk out there though, which can quickly muck things up.  Hence, be methodical, pick stocks you want longer term exposure to, and ease into trades with smaller than usual position sizing.


PS. Mt Baldy's coppin' another 6-12 inches of snow today while they are closed, so I'll be away from my desk powder hounding it up again tomorrow.  For anyone who didn't see my post in the Pub, here's a little reel I put together of last Thursday's mountain scenery :hehehe:



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OnlinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28252986 - 03/29/23 01:22 PM (9 months, 25 days ago)

Market is looking pretty good as we grind into the last hour on strength so far (literally every sector/major ETF I track, with the exception of GLD, is up today.)

I've added a little more SHOP as well as some AI to the books.  BOTZ looks to be very close to a breakout, and I expect AI will outperform on a %-basis.  Keep in mind the market is still quite volatile and has been suffering from gaps at the open, so I would still continue to trade relatively conservatively... but also be mindful that the odds market for a rate hike at the next Fed meeting indicates a pause.  With the SPY looking to close above 400 again, and possibly even above its 50 day moving average, it's important to be prepared for a potential upside breakout after the last nearly two months of consolidation.

Hope you caught your breakout in INTC today, Enkidu.  One of the best performers today.


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Offlinegopher
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28253020 - 03/29/23 01:48 PM (9 months, 25 days ago)

My TD bank is doing horrible, I dont know if I should be concerned, I have a RDSP investment with them lmao, thats my retirement savings


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For most of the normies out there, an operating system is just a bootloader for Google Chrome.

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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28253067 - 03/29/23 02:23 PM (9 months, 25 days ago)

Enkidu got bammed.


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Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ
(•_•)
<) )~  ANTIFA
/ \
\(•_•)
( (>    SUPER
/ \
(•_•)
<) )>    SOLDIERS
  / \


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OfflineHikeadellic
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #28253442 - 03/29/23 06:45 PM (9 months, 25 days ago)

Oh no what did he do?


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Hikeadellic]
    #28253480 - 03/29/23 07:04 PM (9 months, 25 days ago)

Non-specific, non-credible threat towards another member over politics. It was pretty funny, actually, but 4 months seems a bit harsh.


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Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ
(•_•)
<) )~  ANTIFA
/ \
\(•_•)
( (>    SUPER
/ \
(•_•)
<) )>    SOLDIERS
  / \


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #28253925 - 03/29/23 11:40 PM (9 months, 25 days ago)

Man. Well, will see the guy when we see him, hope his trades work out though.

Still sitting on a mountain of cash, concerned I may have misinterpreted a sustained market slide for a pending crash. Seems I got out at the wrong time and don’t want to enter again at the wrong time. But holding steady and not going to get inpatient.


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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OnlinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28255981 - 03/31/23 10:22 AM (9 months, 24 days ago)

Solid moves here at the end of the quarter.  Not terribly surprising given the expectations of slowing or stopping rate hikes, a passive comfort level with the banking risks being relative contained (or perhaps more accurately stated, simply ignored for now).  AI up bigly in the last three days, my June options on this position are up 80% as a result, and I think I'm going to let this one continue to run, as the weekly chart looks like it could just be getting started, pushing to new highs on the year today.  If we get another big continuation spike on Monday, I will peel half off out of discipline for the 100%+ gain on the position inside of a week.

AAPL, MSFT and META are all continuing to grind higher, but the big tech leaders have slowed down a little bit.  You'd have to believe that a lot of money has already been allocated here, given the NDX's +20% run on the quarter.  Nothing wrong with the stocks, but expectations for continued movement of the magnitude we have seen over the past three months ought to be tempered.

ALGM as a midcap semiconductor is still threatening a solid breakout from its two month base, I think this one will perform better than the big guys near term, since it is more sensitive to the interest rate narrative improving.

SPOT is looking like a breakout today, I didn't get back in unfortunately.

But SHOP continues to march along its upper bollinger band, and I am exposed there.

BOTZ also moving very nicely.

Probably see a bit of a retracement next week, but so far, so good.


Oh, and Mt Baldy was ALL TIME yesterday, so much powder, so few people.  Literally one of the best days on the slopes of my life.

 


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OnlinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28256250 - 03/31/23 01:40 PM (9 months, 23 days ago)

Big acceleration into the close here, shutting down my AI calls, they hit +100% and I'm pretty sure I can buy 'em back cheaper and/or roll up to higher strikes next week as the smart move.  Also cut my MSFT and AAPL calls in half, for +40% and +20% respectively.

Ditched a common stock position in AEHR I was holding over earnings (oops).  This is why it's not nice to hold over earnings.  I kind of figured I would keep the position longer term, but they reported that they still have intentions to dilute shareholders with additional secondary offerings to raise money.  Those can get pretty nasty, so I don't really feel like keeping it on the books, especially now that it's below its 50 day moving average.  Took a 10% haircut, too bad, so sad, moving on...

Keeping the following in play, minus the trimming I did a moment ago:

  • AAPL
  • ALGM
  • BOTZ
  • MDC
  • MSFT
  • SHOP


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28256673 - 03/31/23 06:20 PM (9 months, 23 days ago)

Finally got a job with an okay 401k match (50% match up to 8%).

The last couple years I've just been maxing out my Roth with a standard Fidelity Freedom Index fund, 2060 target date. Been putting a few hundred a month into the market with FZROX and FNILX which are doing okay.

I know next to nothing about investing, haven't looked into purchasing any individual stocks at all. Definitely looking to get more active with my investing moving forward now that my income is more predictable and I have a decent chunk just sitting in a checking account. I have $110k in student loans so I also have to figure out if money will be better spent paying those down or just putting the money away and making minimum payments while waiting for the loans to be forgiven at 25 years. I have a lot of reading up to do :takingnotes:


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: feevers]
    #28258255 - 04/01/23 08:31 PM (9 months, 22 days ago)

So I bought On-Running (ONON) over the last 6 months.  After earnings, sold at $30.20 with big profits.  Then I moved that money over to Lululemon before earnings and bought at $316.  Now LULU is at $364.  Commercial Airline companies report earnings mid April.  I am thinking to sell LULU in a couple days and put it into Delta (DAL), American Airline (AAL) and Alaska Airline (ALK).  What are your thoughts?


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OnlinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: encryptor]
    #28258274 - 04/01/23 08:48 PM (9 months, 22 days ago)

I think jumping into trades right before earnings is akin to playing roulette.  You'll get lucky sometimes, and unlucky a similar amount of times.  I always recommend lightening up on big positions prior to earnings.


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Offlineencryptor
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28258411 - 04/01/23 10:22 PM (9 months, 22 days ago)

In the case of On-Running and Lululemon, I did my research beforehand.  I have conviction to  hold shares each time.  I saw in the airports and high-end grocery stores many people wearing On-Running shoes.  I also bought a pair and agreed it's light on the feet. 

With Lululemon I read other bull's comments supporting the stock.  I saw on YouTube many woman posting "try-on Lulu athleticware" and read comments under those videos.  Women like the quality, form, fit, function of their yoga pants regardless of price.  It's a status symbol at the gym. It's another luxury athletic ware stock that retail customers were buying. 

Now I'm trying to do research before airlines report mid-month and would like your thoughts on Airline stocks right now.  Which ones do you like and why? 

I will take your caution though and won't bet all my original investment and profits on the next big stock.

Currently the current price of DAL and AAL is between the 100 and 200 moving average.  Zacks gives the following ratings DAL: Hold, AAL: Buy, ALK: Hold.  Yahoo Finance gives the following ratings: DAL 1.6, AAL: 2.9, ALK: 1.9 where 1 is strong buy, 2 is buy, 3 is hold.  DAL and AAL are undervalued.  ALK is near fair.  There have been recent analyst upgrades for the last quarter. 


Edited by encryptor (04/01/23 10:33 PM)


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: encryptor]
    #28259136 - 04/02/23 12:43 PM (9 months, 21 days ago)

I haven't exited any of my long positions besides this Norway ETF. Was down pretty bad on the last dip. OPEC just cut production so hoping to get some breathing room on my energy longs. That banking crisis caught me off guard and I'm sure a lot of people either sold or flipped short. If growth continues to surprise we could get a decent rally to the upside just very limited. Liquidity seems to be the biggest problem and I saw we were at the same levels of March 2020. 

Still seeing a decrease in growth by end of the year and likely recession based on the small/medium banks yanking credit. Underlining economy is strong but these rates will really put that to the test.


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OfflineHikeadellic
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Gorlax] * 1
    #28259535 - 04/02/23 05:33 PM (9 months, 21 days ago)

Tesla is approaching the 200 day MA after a rally last week due to a good sales report. I think that this is going to be a point of resistance and a good opportunity for a quick short sale


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Hikeadellic]
    #28260207 - 04/03/23 08:48 AM (9 months, 21 days ago)

XLE had a great pop this morning. Thinking of setting a stop $1 below it’s current price. This was the first great action I’ve had in a while.

Put a bunch into Verizon again because I am just sick of sitting on cash. VZ has been my rock for quite some time, even if a little boring.


--------------------
notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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OnlinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH] * 1
    #28260222 - 04/03/23 09:15 AM (9 months, 21 days ago)

OPEC tightened the spigot, which is driving the energy trade.  I wouldn't add on this strength.

The market is likely to have a bit of a hangover after last quarter's (and last month's) big moves.  I don't think you need to rush into any trades this week.  Friday I believe is a bank holiday, and there is also some important inflation related data being released that the Fed tracks closely in guiding their rate policy... so my recommendation is to more or less sit tight this week, as we are up near resistance now and the big moves of late need to consolidate a bit if we're going to see sustained moves higher over the intermediate to longer term.

SPOT is lookin' pretty juicy though... trying to resist YOLO'ing it :hehehe:

In unrelated news, Mt Baldy Resort featured my video from a couple weeks ago... funny how my shadowbanned IG account couldn't even gather 30 likes on that thing, and they bagged over 1000 in a couple of hours. :lol:

And while the mountains have been great this year, I'm off to the Ventura coast with the fam to soak up some sea breezes and (hopefully) catch a few waves while my kiddo's on spring break!

:rockon:


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··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


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