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Offlineashfiken
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: gopher]
    #28223473 - 03/10/23 08:54 AM (10 months, 14 days ago)

Usd index


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: gopher]
    #28223571 - 03/10/23 10:02 AM (10 months, 14 days ago)

UVXY is a leveraged ETF that is designed to track the Volatility Index aka the VIX.  The VIX is generally correlated to how premium much market participants are willing to pay on S&P index options, and is often referred to as the "fear index".  When the market is in meltdown mode, nimble traders can hedge themselves or ride any acceleration in panic/fear via the VXX and its leveraged cousin UVXY.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28227400 - 03/13/23 07:50 AM (10 months, 11 days ago)

Jumped into a boat full of SSO here at the open, two purchases below $44, stop at $43.39.  We are short-term overextended to the downside.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28227409 - 03/13/23 07:57 AM (10 months, 11 days ago)

Also picked up a little MSFT, bouncing off its 50 day.  This could be an important low after the major bank failures over the past few days and the government stepping in to backstop depositors... pretty bad headlines if you ask me.  And if this isn't a tradable low, my stops are set AT the morning lows, so risk is mitigated.

ZIM off to the races on earnings, no position.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28227520 - 03/13/23 09:29 AM (10 months, 11 days ago)

I picked up several shares of INSW shortly after the open. So far, so good.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28227691 - 03/13/23 11:33 AM (10 months, 11 days ago)

SSO stop ratcheted up to $44.36, just under VWAP.  If we don't hold here, I want to take the money and run.  MSFT is still hanging in there well above VWAP and vastly outperforming the market, so I will let that run for now and probably swing it overnight, as the position is small.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28227859 - 03/13/23 01:50 PM (10 months, 10 days ago)

Out of SSO and MSFT for some decent profits on the day.  Close is looking rather erratic and directionless, want to remain cash heavy.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28228970 - 03/14/23 07:48 AM (10 months, 10 days ago)

Back into MSFT and NVDA this morning, small size, stops at low of day.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28229037 - 03/14/23 08:44 AM (10 months, 10 days ago)

RIVN getting hammered. I believe this stock is considered as being in the penalty box, I am keeping an eye on it though, for a short term hold it may be oversold.

No shares as of today.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28229143 - 03/14/23 10:04 AM (10 months, 10 days ago)

Gettin' in the hot seat and taking a little FRC common @ $48, initial stop @ $47.  Stock is above support on the hourly and 15 minute time frames, as well as pushing above VWAP now.  Can keep a tight stop and a small position to limit downside, with upside potential being rather significant, even with a small position.  Seeing near-term potential upside to around $60, not a guarantee by a long shot, but I'm very comfortable risking $1 to make up to $12.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28229239 - 03/14/23 11:27 AM (10 months, 10 days ago)

lol. FRC is tripping breakers all over the place right now. I picked up 3 shares @ $42.25.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #28229318 - 03/14/23 12:32 PM (10 months, 9 days ago)

I had ratcheted up my stop to break-even and got taken out of FRC.  Below VWAP and especially at new lows for the day, as well as underneath the 1 hr and 15 min support zones, is not a place I want to remain exposed.  The fact that the SPY is ricocheting off of and falling back from prior support (which is now resistance), is further warranting of caution.  I'm still in MSFT and NVDA because they haven't violated my stops, but they are on a very tight leash.  Longer term positions such as BOTZ, I don't really care much about their day to day oscillations because my time horizon on that trade is at least six months out.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28229384 - 03/14/23 01:11 PM (10 months, 9 days ago)

Out of MSFT and NVDA... market weakening, traders don't want to hold overnight.

Edit:  Well that's volatility for ya.  No sooner did I exit my trades and call it a day, to then receive a notification on my mobile device that MSFT was hitting a new high into the close. :lol:


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Edited by geokills (03/14/23 01:59 PM)


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OnlinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28231856 - 03/16/23 10:49 AM (10 months, 8 days ago)

MSFT announced integration of cGPT into its office suite, that's pretty cool.  Stock continues to race higher.  I caught some profits at the bounce off the 50 day earlier in the week, but got shaken out of the position on the odd action on Tuesday.  In hindsight, this one would have been better to hold (and indeed I've been talking about wanting to "maintain exposure" to MSFT for quite some time - ever since they announced their cGPT involvement), but the aggregate market environment has been so sketchy, I traded in accordance with my discipline, and sometimes you just end up missing it.

On the upside, I picked up distressed shares of regional bank FRC this morning, when it revisited its opening lows and printed a green candle @ $20.99.  The stock was halted shortly thereafter as JPM and MS noted they were in talks to help bolster the bank (they no doubt have eyes on FRC's wealth management division, which would be a very nice acquisition target for either firm).  Kept a trailing stop on it after the post-halt gyrations and bagged a 31% return on the day.  It was a fairly small position due to the high risk nature of trading a distressed asset, especially one subject to intraday trading halts, but 31% on a small position still moves the needle.

ANET just moved to new all time highs, I was watching it yesterday but didn't enter, and I've really just been watching it go up in a straight line all morning.  Not going to chase it, or MSFT, or NVDA which is also pushing out of its squeeze.  The S&P is still just under 4000 and with how strong the moves have been today right up into that resistance level, it just doesn't feel right to be piling in.  Honorable mention to TLRY, which has been an absolute dog, but popping on huge volume this morning.  Would have been nice to catch it early, but again, not going to chase.


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28232764 - 03/16/23 07:46 PM (10 months, 7 days ago)

Given the severity of banking collapses, doesn't it seem like the VIX is a little low? The volatility in the bond market is at 40 year highs for moves on the 2 year. Like multi-decades highs, but it isn't moving stock prices as severely.

Everyone knows the Fed is going to pump in liquidity? Should be fine except in emerging markets with weak central banks that can't do that.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #28233493 - 03/17/23 09:55 AM (10 months, 7 days ago)

Any feelings on First Republic Bank? It is getting killed and bailed out at the same time. I wonder if it is a risky, albeit infrequent opportunity to profit from a big bailout?


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"What appears impenetrable to us does exist, manifesting itself in the deepest wisdom and the most radiant beauty" Einstein

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OfflineBrian Jones
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: pslyke]
    #28233511 - 03/17/23 10:29 AM (10 months, 7 days ago)

I thought about it.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Brian Jones]
    #28233832 - 03/17/23 02:10 PM (10 months, 6 days ago)

I shoulda thought about it longer.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #28233936 - 03/17/23 03:50 PM (10 months, 6 days ago)

Welp fuck me. Had a wealth advising appointment the other day and advised to not close out any positions. Went long on a few things prior to all these banks blowing up. Not down too significantly but definitely some big unrealized losses.

$CALF & $COWZ should be rather resilient when it comes to recessions.

Quant model that I use was signaling RISK-ON (inflation) since Feb 1st 2023. It just pivoted back to stagflation :shrug:b:frown:

My $TLT position bar-belling my portfolio rn


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ohngoing Discussion [Re: pslyke]
    #28234079 - 03/17/23 05:59 PM (10 months, 6 days ago)

Quote:

Ahab McBathsalts said:
Given the severity of banking collapses, doesn't it seem like the VIX is a little low? The volatility in the bond market is at 40 year highs for moves on the 2 year. Like multi-decades highs, but it isn't moving stock prices as severely.

Everyone knows the Fed is going to pump in liquidity?




The bond guys are generally the smartest folks in the room, so if we see the yields falling there, it likely portends high confidence that the Fed is fairly well painted in a corner, and that their focus may well be on the more emergent concern of banking issues related to their rapid acceleration on rates, rather than the languishing yet persistent concern of inflation.  In other words, deal with the kitchen on fire first, worry about fixing the shaky foundation later.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Fed pause on hikes at the next meeting, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see them kick another quarter point into the fire (especially since we just saw the ECB hike).  I do think their language will continue to soften in either case, in attempts to telegraph that they are going to be less aggressive going forward.

Whether it's direct liquidity from the Fed, or the "backstop" deposit insurance fund being used to shore up banks that made bad decisions (e.g. Silicon Valley Bank & Silvergate), or strong banks being "power brokered" into throwing deposits into competitors who are struggling to help shore up their balance sheets (e.g. First Republic getting deposits from JPM/MS/BAC/WF)... there are a few levers that are either being used or could be used here to actively ease liquidity.

With regard to the VIX, if you take it out to a weekly view, we did spike, more or less, up to the nominal highs of the last two years.  Interestingly, if you take the VIX to a monthly view, you'll see that we haven't even normalized to pre-pandemic levels.  Given that the government was quick to step in and guarantee even uninsured depositors at the troubled banks of the prior weeks, I think the VIX hit a reasonable peak and will only see a higher high if the attempted containment of the situation doesn't hold.  But it's pretty clear that the governments don't want to take that chance, and I would expect them to be actively accommodative of any crisis issues that may crop up, and for the Fed in particular to be ready to completely take their foot off the gas with regard to continued hikes... although we would need to see a few more major failures for that last scenario to happen with any urgency.  While the Fed may pause to allow markets and banks in particular to regroup, I do think that, barring an escalation in failures and/or war with Russia taking on a wider scope, that they still have a couple more hikes in store over the course of the next 3-6 months.


Quote:

pslyke said:
Any feelings on First Republic Bank? It is getting killed and bailed out at the same time. I wonder if it is a risky, albeit infrequent opportunity to profit from a big bailout?




I think FRC is going to be alright.  They have a very valuable wealth management business, and so if they really are on the brink of failure, I would expect another bank like JPM to step in and buy them out.  Of course, that buyout could come at a much lower share price.  The stock is just about the riskiest thing you can hold right now, so I would only trade with small amounts, and generally keep it to intraday style momentum trades without overnight risk.  If you want to take a small position long term that you don't mind potentially losing entirely, you might be pleasantly surprised... or not. :tongue2:


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